CRUDE OIL MOVES OVER $44 -- ENERGY EXCELS... It's the same story all over again. Crude oil prices moved over $44 today to reach a new record high. While that hurt the stock market, it gave another boost to energy shares. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector... READ MORE
S&P BOUNCES OFF MAY LOW... The S&P 500 bounced off its May low this week which helped stabilize its short-term trend. Unfortunately, it didn't do much to turn the intermediate downtrend around. For one thing, volume this week was lighter than the week before... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH ... Crude oil jumped over a dollar on Friday to close at a new record high. While that continues to benefit the energy sector, it's continuing to have a depressing effect on the economy and the rest of the stock market. U.S.... READ MORE
TELECOM ETFs SHOW IMPRESSIVE GAINS... One of the main sparks that helped ignite today's oversold market bounce was the strong gain in the telecom sector. Two of the top performing Exchange Traded Funds today were the AMEX Telecom Holders (TTH) and Telecom iShares (IYZ). Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEARING TEST OF MAY LOW ... The new week is starting off much like the old week ended -- with more selling. As was suggested on Friday, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index is nearing an important test of its May low. Looking beneath the... READ MORE
NASDAQ BREAKS MAY LOW ... The Nasdaq Composite Index broke its May low and fell to the lowest level in nine months. That carries bad news not just for the technology sector that dominates the Nasdaq market, but the rest of the market as well. That's because the Nasdaq... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS DECLINE ON RISING VOLUME... In yesterday's wrapup I mentioned that the Nasdaq bounce off its May low lacked volume. That volume returned today. Unfortunately, it came on the downside. As a result, the Nasdaq (and the rest of the market) suffered a downside reversal day that... READ MORE
NASDAQ TESTING ITS MAY LOW... Today's Nasdaq-led market bounce shouldn't come as to much of a surprise. Chart 1 shows why. The Nasdaq Composite Index has reached its May low near 1865 where it's logical to expect some short-covering and some bottom-fishing. The daily... READ MORE
ENERGY SOARS -- CHIPS FALL... Which market groups are rallying and which ones are falling usually carry a market message. Two notable group dynamics that took place this week were a new high in energy shares and a now low in semiconductors. Neither one is good for the stock market.... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL JUMPS OVER $41... Crude oil prices jumped $1.65 today to close over $41 for the first time in nearly two months. That gave a boost to energy shares. Chart 2 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR hitting a new 52-week high today. Unfortunately, that proved bearish for... READ MORE
INTEL TUMBLES TO 2004 LOW... Intel is tumbling to a new a new for the year and is pulling the Semiconductor (SOX) Index along with it. That also caused a lower opening in all the major stock indexes -- especially the Nasdaq. After a lower open, however, the market is... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE... After a technology-led morning selloff, the market staged an afternoon bounce that came at a good time. That's because it kept the Dow Industrials over their 200-day moving average. With the exception of the Nasdaq, which closed in negative territory, all the major... READ MORE
MONTHLY MACD POSITIVE BUT WEAKENING... This is a good time to stand back and try to put things into a longer-term perspective. First of all, let's see why the 2004 rally has been stalled. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show that the S&P 500 ran... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCING OFF 200-DAY LINE... I mentioned yesterday that the Dow was testing long-term support at its 200-day moving average. In early trading, the Dow is up nearly 50 points and is bouncing off its 200-day line. It's getting a lot of help from General Electric which reported... READ MORE
YAHOO PULLS NASDAQ LOWER... The technology sector got battered again. The most prominent casualty was Yahoo which tumbled more than 7% to get the day off to a weak start. Chart 1 shows Yahoo gapping down to its 50-day average on massive volume. That made Internet stocks the day'... READ MORE
EURO HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH ... I've recently shown the U.S. Dollar Index rolling over to the downside and have suggested this could have a positive impact on gold and other commodity markets -- as well as their related common stocks. The dollar fell again today. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
VERITAS PLUNGES ON HEAVY VOLUME ... One need only to look at Chart 1 to see where the bad technology day started. Veritas Software plunged 36% on massive volume. Although several technology stocks opened lower, and got the day off to bad start, this was the biggest casualty. Things got worse... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS TUMBLE TO TWO-MONTH LOW... A weaker than expected June jobs report pushed the 10-year T-note yield to the lowest level in two months as shown in Chart 1. The benchmark yield fell beneath its 50-day average on Tuesday and signalled the start of the lower trend. That'... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 FALLS BELOW BREAKOUT POINT... Yesterday we showed the Nasdaq 100 closing above its April peak in an apparent upside breakout. Today's price drop, however, pushed it back below the breakout point at 37.50. In chart work, a close beneath a breakout point negates the breakout.... READ MORE
FED FOLLOWS THE SCRIPT... The Fed followed through on the most advertised rate hike in history. First, by raising the Fed funds rate a quarter point to 1.25%. Second, by continuing to state that it planned to follow a measured pace in raising rates. The bond and stock market... READ MORE
INFLATION REPORT PUSHES YIELDS HIGHER... The market got an early boost today from Iraq and falling oil prices. By the end of the day, however, concern about rising rates pushed the major stock averages into negative territory. A big jump in consumer spending combined with a higher-than-expected inflation number pushed... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL DROPS $1.50 TO TWO-MONTH LOW... News that the Iraq transition took place two days early and a sharp drop in crude oil prices is giving the market a boost on Monday. Chart 1 shows crude oil dropping to the lowest level since late April. Not surprisingly, energy... READ MORE
DOW ENDS WEEK LOWER... Friday's Dow selloff put it in negative territory for the week. That loss was softened by the fact that the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 had weekly gains. Most of the Dow selling came from the drug group. Three of the Dow&... READ MORE
GOLD CLIMBS OVER $400... This morning's weaker than expected May durable goods report pushed the dollar lower against the Euro and the yen. That pushed gold prices $6.60 higher for the first move over $400 since mid-April. Gold stocks are rallying 3.7% and are the day&... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER... The Nasdaq market had the biggest percentage gain today and led an impressive market advance. This marks the second day of price gains accompanied by rising volume. That's something that's been missing for awhile. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite moving up... READ MORE
GUEST COLUMNIST - CHIP ANDERSON... John is travelling today and so Chip Anderson, President of StockCharts.com, is filling in. John should resume his commentary on Wednesday. I thought it would be constructive to go back a review John's observations over the course of the past week and... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR MAY BE HELPING COMMODITIES... During the two years prior to 2004, a falling U.S. dollar pushed commodity prices to the highest level in more than a decade. During the first half of this year, a rebound in the dollar has coincided with a downside correction in commodities.... READ MORE
RECORD TRADE DEFICIT HURTS DOLLAR -- HELPS GOLD... Chart 1 (plotted through Thursday) shows the U.S. Dollar Index meeting resistance at its moving average lines and showing signs of rolling over to the downside. This morning's report that the U.S. account deficit for the first quarter... READ MORE
SOX HITS MONTHLY LOW... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index fell more than 3% today and pulled the technology sector down with it. Chart 1 shows the SOX hitting the lowest level in a month and also breaking a two-month up trendline. That opens up the possibility of a retest of its... READ MORE
ENERGY ETF NEARS OLD HIGH... Energy stocks are rising again. In a mixed market, energy shares are especially strong. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR moving up to challenge its April high. A close through that chart barrier would put the energy ETF at a new three-year high.... READ MORE
INFLATION REPORT SOOTHES BOND TRADERS... The much-awaited May CPI report showed an increase of 0.6%. Although that was the biggest number since January 2001, the core figure met consensus expectations of 0.2%. For the time being, that calmed bond traders who were afraid of a much higher inflation... READ MORE
MARKET BOUNCE ATTRACTS SOME VOLUME... A relatively benign inflation report and a sharp drop in bond yields pushed stock prices higher today. As a result, the three main indexes are still safely over their 50-day moving averages. The Nasdaq bounced off its 200-day line yesterday. Market breadth was good with... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES PULLING BACK ... Last Wednesday I showed Chart 1 to make the point that the S&P 500 SPDR was up against chart resistance near 115 (its April highs) and that the stochastic lines were in overbought territory over 80. That suggested that some short-term selling wouldn'... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM UPTREND LOOKS OVERBOUGHT... The market ended a shortened trading week with a Thursday bounce. The lack of trading activity continues to cast a pall over the recent price gains. In addition, daily stochastic lines remain in overbought territory over 80. A more positive picture is shown by the MACD... READ MORE
GREENSPAN EFFECT... In a Wednesday speech in London, Mr. Greenspan talked about the possibility of the Fed having to raise rates more aggressively than planned if inflation pressures continue to build. Thursday's trading seems to be a delayed reaction to those remarks. Bond yields started rising again which... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS EXCEED APRIL HIGH... The Dow Jones Transportation Average has broken through the previous peak formed during April, and is now on its way toward its January high. Its relative strength line has been rising since early March in another show of relative strength. Last week (June 2) I... READ MORE
S&P 500 REACHES RESISTANCE LINE... Friday turned out to be a pretty good day. A strong jobs report, a bounce in Intel and chip stocks, and another drop in oil prices set a positive tone from the opening bell. Unfortunately, the day turned out to much less impressive... READ MORE
OIL RISES -- THEN DROPS... It was a strange day to say the least. OPEC announced this morning the biggest production increase in seven years and oil prices rose. As a result, stocks opened lower. This afternoon, an increase in oil inventories pushed crude 75 cents lower to $39.21... READ MORE
OIL TRADES HIGHER... OPEC announced this morning an increase in oil production of 2 million barrels a day. Although that was the biggest jump in seven years, crude oil has gained 46 cents and is back over $40. That's not what the stock market was hoping for. As... READ MORE
DOW CLOSES OVER 50-DAY AVERAGE... For a change, today's leadership came from industrial stocks. As a result, the Dow Industrials managed a close over their 50-day moving average. That puts all the major stock averages over that key resistance line. A $2.40 drop in the price of... READ MORE