HISTORY OF OCTOBER TOPS... Late last week I mentioned that crude oil had a history of peaking during October or at least experiencing significant pullbacks. Chart 1 shows the track record. The monthly bars plot the history since 1990. The black arrows show those years where a sigificant pullback occurred... READ MORE
S&P BACKS OFF FROM 2004 TRENDLINE... With today's sharp pullback, it's a good idea to see where the pullback is coming from -- and why it shouldn't be too much of a surprise. I showed this chart last Friday to make the point... READ MORE
FANNIE MAE FALLS THE HARDEST... It's not hard to see where most of the damage is being felt today. The biggest sector loser so far today is the financial group. The two biggest percentage losers in the S&P 500 are also financial stocks -- Fannie Mae and... READ MORE
LONG-TERM RATES FALL IN FACE OF FED TIGHTENING ... The Fed raised the Fed funds rate another quarter of a point today as everyone expected. They also left their wording pretty much intact. That set in motion some intermarket relationships that may not make sense at first blush. For one... READ MORE
END OF 20-YEAR BEAR MARKET... In my recent Intermarket Analysis book (and in several market messages from last year), one of the subjects I discussed was the re-emergence of commodity markets from a twenty-year bear market and their relative appeal as an asset class. That case is... READ MORE
BEST AND WORST OF THE DAY... Charts 1 and 2 pretty much sum up the major sector movers today. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR tumbled all the way to its August low -- pulled down by the likes of Colgate Palmolive, Procter & Gamble, Alberto Culver and tobacco stocks. This... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS AND UTILITIES HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS... Two of the three Dow Averages reached a new 52-week high this week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports closing decisively over its summer high. Chart 2 shows the Dow Utilities in an even stronger climb. Interestingly, the utilities seem to... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL ETF NEARS SUMMER HIGH ... So far this week I've written about relative strength in biotech, the Internet, and the consumer discretionary groups. In each case, I first found a sector index that was displaying rising relative strength combined with strong chart action. The chart action is usually... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH ... On a day when the market experienced minor gains, one of the standout groups was consumer discretionary stocks. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR hitting a new three-month high today on big volume. Its relative strength ratio line has... READ MORE
BIOTECH BREAKOUT ... Biotech stocks continue to show good chart action and good relative strength. The purpose of this market messsage is to update my August 27 piece on the biotech group, show the technical improvement since then, and also sugget a number of ways of taking advantage of this rallying... READ MORE
MARKET IS OVERBOUGHT SHORT-TERM ... Earnings warnings in Coke and Xilinx contributed to some profit-taking in the Nasdaq and the big board today. Two other reasons for today's setback is a short-term overbought condition and the closeness to some overhead resistance levels in the major stock... READ MORE
INTERNET INDEX CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... Although most of the talk in the recent technology revival has been about the SOX Index, Internet stocks are doing much better. Chart 1 shows the IIX Internet Index closing over its 200-day moving average for two consecutive days. [By comparison, the SOX... READ MORE
NASDAQ EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE... In a continuation of Thursday's strong action, the Nasdaq led the rest of the market into a strong Friday close. As Chart 1 shows, the Nasdaq finally broke through its (blue) 50-day average at week's end for the first time... READ MORE
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS SPARKS SOX BUYING ... A high-volume gain in Texas Instruments help lead a 5% gain in the Semiconductor (SOX) Index which had just hit a new 52-week low yesterday. Chart 1 shows TXN gapping up and through its 50-day moving average and reaching a new high... READ MORE
NASDAQ MARKET HAS NO BOUNCE... One of the missing ingredients in the recent market rebound has been the lack of participation by the technology-dominated Nasdaq market. While the Dow and the S&P 500 have climbed over their 200-day moving averages, the Nasdaq indexes haven't... READ MORE
HOVNANIAN SPARKS HOME BUYING... Homebuilders are finally joining the rotation into rate-sensitive stocks groups -- like financials, utilities, and REITs. A high-volume breakout in Hovnanian Enterprises is today's main catalyst for the buying of homebuilders. Chart 1 shows HOV breaking through its summer high and its 200-... READ MORE
CRUDE DROPS A DOLLAR -- GOLD UNDER $400 ... After recovering barely half of its August price decline, crude oil has fallen over a dollar today and is trading back under $43. That's giving a boost to the rest of the market. With oil falling, energy shares are seeing some... READ MORE
RETAILERS LEAD DAY'S ADVANCE... Our midday market message focused on the upturn in retail stocks that started this morning. By day's end, the retail stocks achieved big gains and helped lead an impressive stock market advance. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Retail Holders (RTH) jumping to... READ MORE
MARKING UP RETAIL... Retail stocks are having an especially good day. Chart 1 shows the Retail Holders (RTH) jumping impressively over its 50-day average today on rising volume. Percentagewise, it's one of the day's strongest groups. The relative strength line bottomed in early August after... READ MORE
AUGUST ENDS ON UPNOTE... After trading lower throughout most of the day, late buying pushed the market into positive territory -- thereby ending the month on an upnote. Volume remained below average. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 closing a shade above its 50-day moving average. It remains... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS FALL TO NEW LOW... The August drop in consumer confidence is boosting bond prices today and, at the same time, pushing yields to a new five-month low (see Chart 1). Hints at economic weakness are causing investors to sell some stocks and buy some bonds. Falling bond... READ MORE
HEALTH CARE ETF EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE... Over the past week, we've shown some of the leading market sectors -- mainly financials and materials -- that were either breaking out to the upside or close to doing so. Today, we're taking a closer look at the one of... READ MORE
MATERIALS SECTOR SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT... One of the market's strongest sectors is basic materials. Chart 1 shows the Materials Select Sector SPDR close to breaking through its April/July peaks. That would be an impressive breakout if it occurs and would put the ETF at the highest... READ MORE
CRUDE BREAKS 20-DAY LINE... Crude oil continued its fall that started last Friday just shy of $50. It plunged $1.74 today to break its 20-day moving average for the first time in two months. Chart 1 shows the dotted 20-day average overlaid on the daily price... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM TOP IN PLACE... The price of oil continues to drop. Last Friday I showed the 14-day RSI at the most overbought level (over 70) in three months and starting to weaken. Chart 1 plots the 14-day stochastic lines which have turned down from overbought territory over... READ MORE
GOLD HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... My Thursday Market Message focused on an impending bullish breakout in gold as it tested its July peak at $410. Bullion completed that bullish breakout today with a gain of $6.20 to put it at a new four-month high. The Gold & Silver... READ MORE
LOWER RATES HURT DOLLAR, BOOST CRB... Long-term rates have been dropping since June mainly due to signs of economic weakness resulting from rising energy prices. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield falling to the lowest level in four months and slipping beneath its 200-day moving... READ MORE
GOLD STOCK JUMP OVER 4%... Our midday message showed gold challenging its July peak at $410. Gold closed the day at $409. With gold on the verge of a bullish breakout, the Gold & Silver Index (XAU) gained more than 4% and closed at a new four-month high. Chart... READ MORE
BULLION IS TESTING JULY HIGH... Continuing weakness in the U.S. Dollar is lighting a fuse under the gold market -- and gold-related stocks. Gold is trading up more than $3.00 today and is testing its July peak at $410. A close through that chart barrier would represent a... READ MORE
GUEST COMMENTARY BY CHIP ANDERSON... John is visiting family in the western US right now so Chip Anderson, president of StockCharts.com, is filling in for him. John should be back by Thursday. MARKETCARPET DRILL DOWN... John has been a fan of our free MarketCarpet analysis tool for years and... READ MORE
CISCO AND NSM PLUNGE TO 2004 LOWS... All one need do is look at the first two charts to see where most of today's selling came from. Cisco, which is often considered a bellwether for technology, plunged 10% today to register a new 2004 low. And it did... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCES FROM OVERSOLD CONDITION ... The Dow Industrials gained well over a hundred points today after the Fed's expected decision to raise short-term rates another quarter point. The Fed's continued optimism about the pace of the economy may have encouraged some bottom-fishing. That and... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK MAY LOWS... With the Nasdaq market having already fallen to a new for the year, it was just a matter of time until the Dow and the S&P 500 did the same. They did that on Friday -- and on rising volume.... READ MORE
RETAILERS BREAK NECKLINE... Retailers got marked down today in a big way. Same stores sales for July rose at the second slowest level in nine months. Economists blame higher energy prices. That's simple economics. Yet most economists dismissed the threat from rising oil prices through the first half... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL MOVES OVER $44 -- ENERGY EXCELS... It's the same story all over again. Crude oil prices moved over $44 today to reach a new record high. While that hurt the stock market, it gave another boost to energy shares. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR... READ MORE
S&P BOUNCES OFF MAY LOW... The S&P 500 bounced off its May low this week which helped stabilize its short-term trend. Unfortunately, it didn't do much to turn the intermediate downtrend around. For one thing, volume this week was lighter than the week... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH ... Crude oil jumped over a dollar on Friday to close at a new record high. While that continues to benefit the energy sector, it's continuing to have a depressing effect on the economy and the rest of the stock market. U.S.... READ MORE
TELECOM ETFs SHOW IMPRESSIVE GAINS... One of the main sparks that helped ignite today's oversold market bounce was the strong gain in the telecom sector. Two of the top performing Exchange Traded Funds today were the AMEX Telecom Holders (TTH) and Telecom iShares (IYZ). Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEARING TEST OF MAY LOW ... The new week is starting off much like the old week ended -- with more selling. As was suggested on Friday, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index is nearing an important test of its May low. Looking beneath the surface,... READ MORE
NASDAQ BREAKS MAY LOW ... The Nasdaq Composite Index broke its May low and fell to the lowest level in nine months. That carries bad news not just for the technology sector that dominates the Nasdaq market, but the rest of the market as well. That's because the Nasdaq... READ MORE