OIL SPIKE HELPS ENERGY -- HURTS AIRLINES... Crude oil prices jumped $2.50 today to close over $42 for the first time ever. As is usually the case when oil is rising, energy-related shares were the big winners. The Energy Select Sector SPDR gapped higher today -- although on lighter... READ MORE
DOLLAR RALLY MAY BE OVER ... The U.S. Dollar Index has been in an intermediate term recovery since February. It ran into trouble, however, around its 200-day moving average. The Dollar Index rose above that long-term resisance line briefly at the start of May and even reached a new 2004... READ MORE
S&P EXCEEDS 50 DAY LINE... In a continuation of the rally that started on Tuesday, the market is trading higher today. Earlier in the week, the Nasdaq 100 was the first of the major stock indexes to exceed its 50-day average. The benchmark S&P 500 is... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADING MARKET HIGHER... A number of positive chart things have happened this week. Tuesday's market rally came on good volume and very good breadth. It also came at a good time with so many market indexes testing major support at their 200-day moving averages. There are... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL JUMPS $1.77... A planned increase in Saudi oil production didn't have the desired effect of pushing crude oil below $40. Instead, crude jumped $1.77 to close at $41.70 -- just pennies from a new all-time high. As a result, energy shares were especially... READ MORE
ENERGY ETF LOSING LEADERSHIP... A strange thing happened this week. Crude oil prices reached another all-time high. At the same time, energy shares dropped. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR trading under its 50-day average for the last four days of the week. The previous week's... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES CLOSE LOWER ON HIGHER VOLUME... What started out as an encouraging bounce turned into a bad technical day. After jumping this morning, all the major averages reversed to the downside on rising volume. That's a bad combination. Also bad is the fact that the Dow Diamonds... READ MORE
GLOBAL RALLY ATTEMPT... I've been writing a lot about U.S. stock indexes bouncing off their 200-day averages. Those that have slipped under that long-term support line are climbing back above it today. It's important to recognize that the recent downside correction -- and the current... READ MORE
RETAIL HOLDERS RISE ON VOLUME... A nice rebound in retail stocks gave a market a boost today. It came at a good time with major stock indexes like the S&P 500 bouncing off their 200-moving averages. At the same time, a $1.00 drop in crude oil and... READ MORE
NYSE AND S&P 500 BOUNCE OFF MOVING AVERAGE... Despite Monday's market selloff, several important stock indexes are still holding above their 200-day moving averages. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 once again bouncing off its 200-day line at 1080. Its daily stochastic lines are... READ MORE
CPI AND PPI NUMBERS SURPRISE ECONOMISTS... The most frequently seen words in the financial press are "economists were surprised". It seems they're always being surprised by something. This week it was the "surprising" jump in the CPI and PPI inflation numbers. The fact that... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES CLOSE HIGHER ... Selling throughout most of the day had major stock indexes in danger of breaking key support levels near their 200-day moving averages. A late-day rally, however, prevented that from happening. By day's end the Dow was back above the 10K level and its 200-day... READ MORE
DOW FALLS BACK UNDER 10K... A record trade deficit for the month of March is contributing to renewed selling in the stock market today. In morning trading, the Dow Industrials have fallen back under 10K and their 200-day moving average. In contrast to yesterday's bounce when technology showed... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADERS... Our midday Market Message talked about the Nasdaq showing new signs of upside leadership after pulling the rest of the market lower since January. For the first time in the new year, the technology-dominated Nasdaq market is holding up better than the rest of the market. That'... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 SHOWING BETTER RELATIVE STRENGTH ... The Nasdaq 100 peaked during January and has underperformed the S&P 500 since then. That relative weakness in the technology sector was an early warning that the market was running into trouble. The good news is that we're now seeing... READ MORE
DOW CLOSES JUST UNDER 10K -- 200 DAY LINES IN JEOPARDY... The day started ugly in Asia and Europe and stayed ugly throughout the day. The stock selloff that started on Friday hit the global markets over the weekend before coming back to haunt the U.S. market. Percentagewise, the... READ MORE
ADVANCE-DECLINE LINES PLUNGE EVEN FURTHER... At the end of last week, I showed the recent deterioration in the NYSE and the Nasdaq Advance-Decline lines. The Nasdaq AD line had already broken its 200-day moving average which reflected the greater deterioration in that technology-dominated market. At the end of this week,... READ MORE
YIELDS EXCEED 2003 PEAK ... Another very strong jobs report is having a predictable effect on interest rates. It's pushing them sharply higher. The weekly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield breaking through the peak reached last summer and putting them at the highest level in... READ MORE
HOME DEPOT AND WAL MART WEIGH ON DOW... Despite reporting solid numbers for the month of April, retailers got marked down today. It seems the prospect of higher interest rates is beginning to infect this group as well. After all, most retail items are bought on credit. Two of the... READ MORE
HEALTH CARE IS TOP SECTOR... Healthcare was the day's top sector. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Health Care SPDR moving up toward its April high after bouncing off its 50-day line last week. Even more impressive is its relative strength line which has been moving up since the... READ MORE
LONG-TERM RATES MOVE HIGHER... The Fed did pretty much what everyone expected it to do today. It left rates unchanged but made it clear that short-term rates were eventually headed higher. Of course, everyone knows that already. That's why the 10-year T-note yield has been rising since mid-March... READ MORE
RALLY MAY BE STALLING... The major downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index was interrupted during first quarter when the greenback put in an intermediate term bottom. It moved over its 50-day average in mid-February which confirmed that the immediate trend had turned higher. As Chart 1 shows, however, the... READ MORE
GDP REPORT REVEALS SOME INFLATION ... The first quarter GDP report came in at 4.2% which was a little less than expected. What was more notable was a jump in inflation. The personal consumption expenditure price index (which Mr. Greenspan is known to watch) rose 3.2%, which was the... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLE LEADERSHIP... Given the markets recent problems, it's no surprise to see money flowing to defensive consumer staples. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Staple ETF trading near its old high and well over its 50-day moving average. More importantly, its relative strength has been rising since January,... READ MORE
MATERIALS FALL HARDEST... In a generally weak market, Materials are the weakest sector. Most of that selling is coming in industrial and precious metals. In addition to rising rates here in the states -- and a stronger dollar -- a statement out of China that they may take more aggressive... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE STOCKS ARE BIGGEST GAINERS --... Energy stocks were standout performers in a mixed market today. Percentage-wise, oil service stocks showed the biggest gains in the oil patch. Chart 1 shows the Oil Service Index climbing to the highest level in two months. Its relative strength line is close... READ MORE
OSX LEADS STRONG ENERGY SECTOR... In Tuesday morning trading, energy is the top sector in a rising market. Oil service stocks are the day's top energy group. Chart 1 shows the Oil Service Index moving up to challenge its early March high. Its relative strength line is also... READ MORE
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CRB INDEX BREAKS 50-DAY AVERAGE... The downside correction in commodity prices took a more serious turn today when the CRB Index fell below its 50-day moving average by the widest margin in nine months. That suggests that the recent dollar rally is causing selling across a broader selection of commodity... READ MORE
CRB INDEX BREAKS 50-DAY AVERAGE... The downside correction in commodity prices took a more serious turn today when the CRB Index fell below its 50-day moving average by the widest margin in nine months. That suggests that the recent dollar rally is causing selling across a broader selection of commodity... READ MORE
10-YEAR T-NOTE YIELD CLIMBS AGAIN... Comments from Mr. Greenspan may have had something to do with pushing bond yields higher today and stock prices lower. His remarks on the banking industry made reference to higher interest rates. That's not what either market wanted to here. Traders are also... READ MORE
CONSUMER NON-CYCLICAL ISHARES HIT NEW HIGH... Of the nine Sector Select SPDRS traded on the American Stock Exhange, the only one to reach a new 52-week high today was the Dow Jones Consumer Non-cyclical iShares shown in Chart 1. The relative strength line along the bottom of the chart turned... READ MORE
BIOTECH INDEX IS MONDAY'S LEADER... Last week's healthcare bounce was led by pharmaceuticals. This week leadership appears to passing to the biotech group. The Biotech Index (BTK) is up 1.8% in Monday morning trading and is the day's top market group. Chart 1... READ MORE
BUYING DRUGS WITH BANK MONEY... The impact of rising interest rates continues to cause rotations between stock market groups. One need only to look at today's strongest and weakest Dow stocks to see what's happening. Citigroup was the Dow's biggest percentage loser and fell... READ MORE
PHARMA HOLDERS ARE UP... Pharmaceutcial stocks are rallying today in the face of a weak stock market. Among sector ETFs, the AMEX Pharm Holders are in the top spot. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the PPH breaking through its 50-day average on rising volume. Its relative strength line... READ MORE
STRONG RETAIL REPORT PUSHES YIELDS SHARPLY HIGHER... The market may have reached the point where good news is becoming bad news. We got a sample of that today. A 1.8% jump in March retail numbers was three times more than economists were expecting, and the biggest jump in a... READ MORE
STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED RETAIL SALES PUSHES RATES HIGHER... The main catalyst for this morning's jump in interest rates -- and selling in stocks -- was the U.S. March retail sales report which was the biggest in a year. That sign of economic strength had the immediate effect of pushing... READ MORE
STILL IN OVERBOUGHT CONDITION... The stock market closed mixed on Thursday after opening higher. This is consistent with a market that's in a short-term overbought condition. On Wednesday, I showed the Nasdaq 100 in that condition. The S&P 500 looks pretty much the same. The S&... READ MORE
SEAGATE FALLS ON HEAVY VOLUME... Yesterday bad news from Nokia unsettled the technology sector. Today it was Seagate Technology. The stock opened sharply lower and fell to the lowest level in ten months. Volume was heavy. Although the stock closed near the top of its daily range, the heaviest volume... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS HIT TWO-MONTH HIGH... While the rest of the market saw some profit-taking, transportation stocks continued to rise. The Dow Transports rose above their February peak to reach the highest level since late January. Its relative strength continues to rise as well. Today's biggest push came from... READ MORE