REITS ARE DROPPING -- LED BY EQUITY OFFICE PROP... Since the start of the year, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have been one of the market's stongest groups. Until now. The slide in this rate-sensitive group started on Friday when bond yields surged on the strong jobs report.... READ MORE
RATE-SENSITIVE STOCKS DROP... With interest rates jumping sharply today, rate-sensitive stocks are being sold. Chart 1 shows the Financials Select Sector SPDR falling beneath its 50-day line. Financials are the day's weakest group. Banks and brokers are being sold. So are stocks tied to housing. Countrywide Financial is... READ MORE
NASDAQ AND S&P 500 BREAK 50-DAY LINES -- SOX LEADS MARKET HIGHER... The economy created 308,000 new jobs during March which is the biggest monthly jump in four years and three times what economists were expecting. The intermarket reactions are dramatic, but not unexpected. Stocks are opening... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS TURNS UP... Last Friday I talked about how the drop in oil was giving a boost to the Dow Jones Transportation Average and was helping it bounce off its 200-day moving average. Earlier in the week, I showed the Transports testing their 50-day moving average. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
SOX PULLS NASDAQ HIGHER... A stunning jobs report today turned stocks sharply higher. The creation of 308,000 new jobs in March was the highest in four years and three times what economists were expecting. The intermarket reactions were predicable. Stocks jumped sharply while bonds fell. Rising rates pushed the... READ MORE
ENERGY SHARES DROP WITH CRUDE OIL... Crude oil fell another $1.46 today (-4%%) to drop to the lowest level in more than a month. That had a depressing effect on the Energy sector which was the day's weakest group. Chart 2 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES TESTING 50-DAY AVERAGE... As it did last week, the semiconductor group is leading the Nasdaq (and the rest of the market) higher again. Chart 1 shows the day's strongest ETF -- the Semiconductor iShares -- challenging their 50-day moving average. A decisive close over that resistance... READ MORE
OIL PRICES SOFTEN -- PRECIOUS METALS RISE... OPEC announced plans to cut one million barrels a day from production. At the same time, the government announced a big jump in crude oil stockpiles in the week ending March 26. When all was said and done, crude oil prices fell 50... READ MORE
INTERNET INDEXES SHOW NASDAQ LEADERSHIP... One of the ways to detect group leadership in an emerging uptrend is to see which groups rise above their 50-day moving averages first. Earlier today I showed the mid and small cap indexes doing just that, which puts them in a leadership role. Within... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS HIT THREE-WEEK HIGH... New signs of leadership by small and midsize stocks may hold good news for large-cap stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P 600 Small Cap Index rising to a new three-week high after clearing its 50-day moving average. [The Russell 2000 small cap index... READ MORE
QQQS CLEAR 20-DAY AVERAGE... As it did last week, the Nasdaq 100 is leading the rest of the market higher in Monday trading. Nasdaq leadership is a positive sign for the market. Chart 1 shows a number of positive short-term chart developments. The QQQs are rising over their 20-day moving... READ MORE
JAPAN ISHARES RESUME UPTREND... With all of the recent concern about a global stock market correction, the Japanese market has been quietly resuming its uptrend. It was by far the world's strongest market this week. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the AMEX Japan iShares climbing to... READ MORE
NASDAQ GAINS 3%... Earlier today, I wrote about the Nasdaq market bouncing from important chart support near 1900 and spearheading a market upturn. In today's trading, the Nasdaq market gained more than 3% to lead the Dow and the S&P 500 into impressive gains of their... READ MORE
FINDING SUPPORT NEAR 200-DAY AVERAGE... Yesterday we showed the Nasdaq 100 Index bouncing off its 200-day moving average and its December low near 34. Today we're focusing on the Nasdaq Composite which is in a similar support area. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq finding chart support just above... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE GROUP IS WEIGHED DOWN BY DRUGS... Healthcare is one of the day's weakest groups. Chart 1 shows the Healthcare iShares in the process of testing their 200-day moving average. Their relative strength line has been dropping since early February. Chart 2 shows that most of selling has... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE ETF LEADS ENERGY COMPLEX LOWER... Up until this week, Energy was one of the last remaining market sectors to buck the downtrend in the rest of the market. Not anymore. The Energy sector was the day's weakest group. The biggest loser in the oil patch was... READ MORE
ENERGY ETF BREAKS 50-DAY LINE... The Energy sector was been one of the few sectors to withstand the market's downside correction. At least until now. In today's trading, Energy is the day's weakest sector. Part of that may be attributed to the fact that... READ MORE
GLOBAL SLIDE STARTS IN ASIA... A 6% decline in the Taiwan stock market started a slide in Asian markets that spread to Europe and then the U.S. Chart 1 shows Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling to the lowest level in three months. In Chart 2, the... READ MORE
GOLD TESTING FEBRUARY HIGH... With stocks and the dollar falling today, gold prices are up $5. Chart 1 shows that bullion is now challenging its mid-February peak near $418. Gold stocks are rising as well. Last week we showed the XAU Index climbing back over its 50-day mooving average. Gold... READ MORE
SOX BREAKS DECEMBER LOW... Earlier in the week I suggested that the fate of the Nasdaq market was tied to the Semiconductor (SOX) Index which was trying to bounce off support at its December low. Unfortunately, the Semiconductor Index took a turn for the worst today and pulled the Nasdaq... READ MORE
WEEKLY INDICATORS ARE NEGATIVE... The S&P 500 and the other major stock averages have enjoyed an oversold bounce this week. What's turning me more cautious on the market, however, is what's happening on the longer-term weekly and monthly charts. Chart 1 is a weekly... READ MORE
DOLLAR FALL PUSHES GOLD HIGHER... The dollar is falling sharply today against the Euro and the Japanese yen. That's pushing gold prices $4.40 higher to $411. Naturally, that's giving a boost to gold shares which are rising today. If today's gains hold, it... READ MORE
FEDEX, STANLEY WORKS, AND YAHOO JUMP... The three stocks shown below are helping lead another stock market bounce today. Chart 1 shows FedEx surging to a new three-month high on strong volume. The stock is safely back above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. That's giving a boost... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS DROP... To no one's surprise, the Fed left short-term rates unchanged today. It did, however, seem to soften its description of the economic recovery a bit. That may account for today's drop in long-term rates. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield closing at... READ MORE
DROP IN BOND YIELDS HURTS STOCKS... I wrote a column on Wednesday describing some similarities (although on a smaller scale) between the current market and the one in the spring of 2000. I was talking mainly about sector rotations out of technology into defensive groups like oil, consumer staples, utilities,... READ MORE
FOURTH ANNIVERSARY OF NASDAQ TOP... In my latest book on Intermarket Analysis, Chapter 7 discusses the sequence of sector rotations that normally take place at market tops. Although the magnitude of the current selling in stocks isn't the same as the market top four years ago, the current... READ MORE
NASDAQ BREAKS 2000 LEVEL... The Nasdaq Composite Index took a more serious turn for the worse today when it closed beneath the 2000 level for the first time this year. That level is important for two reasons. First, it represents the previous low hit a couple of weeks ago and... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 QQQS FALLS HARD... The Nasdaq 100 was the day's worst performer and pulled the entire stock market down with it. Chart 1 shows the QQQs threatening the late February low near 36. That level also corresponds with the prior peaks formed during November and December. Any... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS ARE IN THE LEAD... Over the past week, the past month, and year-to-date, small caps have been the strongest market group measured by size. Mid-caps came in second over all three time spans -- while large caps came in last. Charts 1 and 2 show the S&... READ MORE
BLUE CHIP INDEXES REVERSE EARLY LOSSES... The stock market had a lot of bad news thrown at it today. Intel gave a weak quarterly report last evening. An extremely weak February jobs report this morning caused early selling of stocks. By day's end, however, the blue chip averages... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS PLUNGE TO EIGHT-MONTH LOW... This morning's weak February job report was a shocker. The number of new jobs came in at 21K versus expectations for 125K new jobs. As a result of that very weak report, the price on the 10-year T-note soared 50/32 and... READ MORE
SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP... After consolidating throughout the month of February, it now looks like several of the major stock indexes are getting ready to resume their uptrends. And that rally is being led by smaller stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P Small Cap Index having already broken out... READ MORE
EURO FALLS BENEATH JANUARY LOW... Today's dollar rally pushed the Euro beneath its January trough to the lowest level since last December. That turns the "short-term" trend of the Euro down and the dollar trend up. The breakdown in the Euro caused a ripple effect in... READ MORE
FEBRUARY IS OVER... The month of February, with its historically poor performance, is over and the month of March has gotten off to a good start. The Dow gained nearly a hundred points today and is now closer to the top of its February trading range. The Nasdaq had a... READ MORE
RETAIL INDEX BREAKOUT... The S&P 500 Retailing Industry Group Index (plotted through Thursday) broke through its November high a couple of weeks ago and has been consolidating above that breakout point since then. That represents positive chart action. The relative strength line shows the retailing group starting to... READ MORE
EURO BREAKS 50-DAY LINE... The U.S. dollar, which has been stabilizing since the start of the new year, had another big gain today. Last week most of the dollar's gains came against the yen. This week the dollar is also gaining more ground on the Euro. Chart... READ MORE
GILLETTE BREAKS OUT OF MAJOR BASE... Gillette is one of the consumer staples that have been attracting new monies of late. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the stock hitting a new 52-week high today. It's relative strength line has been rising throughout most of February as... READ MORE
GOLD AND OIL STOCKS GAIN GROUND... Another drop in the dollar boosted gold prices by $5.50 today to $405. Once again the area around $400 has proved to be a stubborn support level. As a result, gold stocks had a strong day today. Chart 1 shows that the XAU... READ MORE
INTEL FALLS BELOW 30 -- NASDAQ TESTING 2000... Given its large size, today's breakdown in Intel is a big blow to the Nasdaq market. Chart 1 shows Intel falling under its December low near 30. That appears to have completed a "double top" formation that started... READ MORE
CPI INFLATION HIGHER THAN EXPECTED... January's CPI numbers on inflation came in higher than expected. Some of that was attributed to rising energy prices, but not all. Even the core inflation figure (ex food and energy) was higher than expected. At the end of last week the government... READ MORE