Last week, I featured three energy-related ETFs as part of an article on the bond market, as they had just broken out on a short-term basis. Chart 1 shows that those breakouts have held so far. This week, though, I'd like to take a deeper dive into the... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER... Stocks are reacting positively to this morning's job report which came in weaker than expected but showed job growth during May. Bond yields weakened on the report which may be helping to boost stocks, and technology stocks in particular. Chart 1 shows the Invesco... READ MORE
The Dilemma Between the Long and Short-Ends Last March, I wrote an articleopining that, while the primary trend was positive, the idea of rising bond yields may have been become too popular for the time being. In the intervening 2 ½-months, yields at the long end have backed off a... READ MORE
The Big Picture Before we get into the subject of corrections, it's important to make sure that we do not lose focus on the big picture. For instance, take Chart 1, which features the Value Line Geometric Average. It reflects the performance of the average stock, as opposed... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD PULLS BACK... Despite all the talk about accelerating inflation, bond yields have been pulling back of late. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield falling to the lowest level in three weeks and trading below its 50-day moving average. The TNX set a 52-week... READ MORE
MONTHLY RANKINGS... Major stock indexes are ending the week with little change. The Dow and S&P 500 show a modest loss while the Nasdaq is showing a minor gain. To get a better sense of what's moving the market, a look at sector rankings can offer... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 HOLD SHORT-TERM SUPPORT...Stocks opened sharply lower this morning but recovered most of their losses by day's end. One encouraging sign was that the Dow the S&P 500 found some support at their 50-day moving averages and potential chart at... READ MORE
Gold has rallied nicely in the last few weeks, so the question naturally arises as to whether it's ready to resume its secular bull market. I'll get to that later, but first, a little perspective. Longer-Term Perspective Chart 1 plots the real price as adjusted by... READ MORE
GOLD AND ITS MINERS MAY BE TURNING UP... Precious metals have sat out the rally in most commodity markets. But money is starting to flow into the group and its miners. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rising above its early 2021 peak... READ MORE
THE NASDAQ REMAINS IN SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND... The tech-dominated Nasdaq market continues to show relative weakness. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite trading well below its 50-day average and in a short-term downtrend. Prices are attempting a rebound today from yesterday's heavy selling. If that low doesn't... READ MORE
INFLATION SPIKE BOOSTS BOND YIELDS... A spike in April CPI and its inflationary implications is boosting bond yields and hurting stock prices. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield jumping nearly 6 basis points today to 1.68% and close to exceeding its late April peak. That's having... READ MORE
Many internal short-term indicators are overextended and starting to look vulnerable, but need some kind of a push to tip the near-term technical balance to the bearish side. That push may have been delivered with Monday's action, as several indexes gave the appearance of some selected short-term buyer... READ MORE
DOW NEARS SHORT-TERM SUPPORT... The Dow gapped sharply lower today and inflicted some short-term chart damage. Chart 1 shows its 14-day RSI backing off from overbought territory near 70; the red arrow shows its daily MACD lines forming a lower high than in April which shows some loss of upside... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY HAS BEEN A MARKET LAGGARD... With the economy showing signs of strength, money has been rotating into more economically-sensitive sectors at the expense of technology stocks. The table in Chart 1 shows materials, energy, and financials being the three strongest sectors over the last month, while technology has been... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I posted an article questioning whether the tech-dominated NASDAQ still had the mojo to lead the market higher. At the time, many sub-surface indicators, such as breadth, volume and relative action, looked weak. Several charts indicated that many of them had experienced multiple negative divergences,... READ MORE
NASDAQ BACKS OFF FROM PREVIOUS HIGH... Chart 1 shows the recent rally in the Nasdaq Composite meeting new selling near its mid-February peak which was the first warning that its uptrend might be losing upside momentum (red line). Today's lower gap confirms the idea that a short-term top... READ MORE
AMAZON RALLIES ON STRONG EARNINGS... Amazon was the last of the big five tech stocks that reported earnings this week. And it reported strong quarterly profits as did the other big tech stocks. Of those four, Facebook and Alphabet gained ground while Apple and Microsoft pulled back on the strong... READ MORE
TESLA DROPS AFTER REPORTING RECORD EARNINGS... How stocks react to earnings reports often tells us something about their technical condition. Tesla (TSLA) is a good example. Two weeks ago I showed Tesla rising decisively above its 50-day moving average which suggested that the stock might be bottoming. That interpretation is... READ MORE
The Fed has pumped a lot of money into the system -- and that liquidity has to go somewhere. We know a lot of it has already been flowing into stocks. Now it looks like it's time for commodities to participate. So much money, combined with bottlenecks in... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TESTS 50-DAY AVERAGE... The decline in bond yields over the last month has helped boost stock prices, and technology stocks in particular. Chart 1, however, shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield testing its 50-day moving average. The major trend of bond yields remains higher with expectations for higher... READ MORE
The NASDAQ Composite peaked on February 16, sold off and subsequently rallied back to the February high last week. Chart 1 shows that it just missed the earlier peak by a smidgen, whereas the NASDAQ 100 (in the lower window) did marginally take out its February high. Taken together, the... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 MAINTAIN UPTRENDS... Stocks snapped a two-day losing streak today and are maintaining their current uptrend. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading well above their 20-day moving average which keeps their short-term uptrend intact. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 doing the... READ MORE
UTILITIES ARE WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR...Chart 1 ranks the week's eleven S&P 500 stock sectors and shows ten of them in the black for the week. Only Communication Services are seeing a small loss. Some other laggards include industrials, financials, and energy. What may... READ MORE
The Dollar Index has been rangebound since 2015. During that period, it has experienced two mini bull and bear markets, as flagged by the dashed arrows in Chart 1. The latest bear has been in force for just over a year, as signaled by the Index trading below its 12-month... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX BACKS OFF FROM 200-DAY LINE...A rebound in the dollar during the first quarter may have run its course. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Dollar Index Fund (UUP) falling back below its 200-day moving average and threatening its 50-day line. What the dollar does from here could have... READ MORE
TESLA TURNS UP... Tesla is the day's biggest percentage gainer in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. It's also the day's strongest stock in the Consumer Discretionary SPDR which is itself hitting a new record. And it's chart is... READ MORE
The gold price peaked last August and has been zig-zagging down ever since. The approximate loss from the high has so far been just north of 15%. During that period, sentiment numbers have been slowly eroding, but not to bearish extremes, so is now a good time to buy? It... READ MORE
APPLE MAY BE BOTTOMING... Chart 1 shows Apple (AAPL) in a downside correction since late January. That correction has taken the stock back down to its 200-day moving average which has acted as a long-term support line. Assuming that its long-term trend is still up, this would be a logical... READ MORE
% OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE IS HIGH... Market breadth figures for the stock market remain quite strong. A couple of them, however, suggest that the market may be stretched on the upside. Chart 1 shows the percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISRETIONARY SPDR NEARS OLD HIGH...Stocks are trading sharply higher today following a strong jobs report on Friday and news today of a stronger service economy. The Dow and S&P 500 are trading in record territory and the Nasdaq isn't far behind. Nine of the... READ MORE
Many of you may be unaware of the fact that StockCharts has a small database of economic indicators. (You can find them by searching for symbols that begin with $$.) This week, I ran through a number of series to see if any could be useful from a long-term stock market... READ MORE
TECHS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY... Technology stocks are the day's strongest sector which is helping boost the Nasdaq market. As a result, the Nasdaq is leading today's rally. Chart 1 show the Invesco QQQ Trust trading 1.8% higher today and nearing a test of... READ MORE
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CLEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE... Airlines stocks continue to gain more ground. Although the entire group is rising, three in particular caught my eye. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show Southwest Airlines (LUV) having cleared resistance along its early 2020 peak and reaching the highest level in more than... READ MORE
MATERIALS NEAR RECORD... In a generally positive market day, materials are one of the days strongest sectors. Chart 1 shows the Materials Sector SPDR (XLB) gapping higher and nearing a new record. It's being led higher by aluminum and steel stocks which are also having a strong day.... READ MORE
In this special presentation, Larry goes "way out on a limb" and gives a market forecast based on the tools he trusts and wants to share with you. So how can we see the future? Through seasonals, cycles, intermarket relationships, technical strength/weakness and, economic data. This video... READ MORE
It's never a good idea to try and predict contra-trend moves in a strong equity bull market, because the benefit of the doubt always goes with the prevailing trend. If false moves develop, they have a strong tendency to develop on the downside. That said, several key indexes... READ MORE
THE NASDAQ MARKET REMAINS ON THE DEFENSIVE...The Nasdaq market remains on the defensive. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust meeting resistance at its 50-day average. That's mainly because of weaker tech stocks. Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) trading below its 50-day line as well.... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD SPIKES HIGER... Bond yields continue to spike higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield jumping 9 basis points to 1.73% which is the highest level in fourteen months. That's helping lift financial shares, but weighing heavily on technology stocks. As a result, the Nasdaq... READ MORE
MARKETS REBOUND... Stocks rebounded following today's dovish Fed statement. In addition, the 10-Year Treasury yield pared some of its earlier gains. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow and S&P 500 touching new records. Chart 3 shows the Nasdaq Composite trading back above its 50-day moving... READ MORE
The longer-term indicators have been bullish on bond yields (bearish on prices) for a while now. However, they are now being joined by a number of commentators offering a similar view, which makes me uncomfortable. Don't get me wrong, the indicators are still pointing to a primary yield... READ MORE