BOND YIELDS JUMP... Within two days after the Fed lowered short-term rates to 1.00%, long-term rates are jumping. I'm sure that's not what the Fed wanted -- nor the stock market. At mid-week, I wrote that a move over 3.50% by the 10-year T-note... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP SHARPLY... The Fed cut the Fed funds rate a quarter point today to l.00%. That's the lowest level in 45 years. [The Fed fund rate stood at 6.50% in January 2001 when the Fed started cutting]. Even so, the bond and stock markets... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR HAS BOOSTED COMMODITY PRICES... Deflation is one of the main issues the Fed is dealing with. With another Fed decision on interest rates less than a day way, I thought it a good time to review the relationship between the dollar and commodity prices. We've pointed... READ MORE
NOT ALL BULLS ARE THE SAME... As usual, there's a debate going on as to whether the current market advance is a bear market rally or a new bull market. Our position, which we've expressed many times before, is that we're in a "... READ MORE
PROFIT-TAKING IN BIOTECHS... Biotechs are one of the day's weakest market groups. The daily chart shows the BTK slipping into a short-term correction. The RSI line is dropping and the MACD lines have turned negative for the first time in two months. Given the steepness of the recent... READ MORE
MARKET SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... Once again, the short-term picture for the market is showing signs of weakening. Earlier today we charted the S&P 500 showing "negative divergence" from some of its short-term oscillars. This evening we'll look at the Nasdaq 100 which, in my... READ MORE
GOLD BUGS INDEX HITS NEW HIGH... Chart 1 shows the AMEX Gold Bugs Index jumping over 5 points today. In so doing, the HUI broke through the high formed in January. That's only part of the story. The weekly bars in Chart 2 shows that today's... READ MORE
DRUG INDEX HITS 52-WEEK HIGH... Drug stocks are leading a Monday market rally. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index climbing to the highest level in a year. Chart 2 may also carry a bullish message for the drug group. The weekly chart shows the DRG in the process of... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE LEADERSHIP... Heathcare was the top performing group today in a strong market. Applera Corp -- Applied Biosystems Group was the top percentage gainer in a strong biotech group. The weekly chart shows that this is the first move over 20 since last December. It also shows that the next... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 RALLY STALLING... Last Friday we pointed out the potential for a downside "key reversal" day, which took place on heavy volume. This week the Nasdaq 100 has been creeping higher, but on relatively light volume. In addition it has remained beneath last Friday's intra-day... READ MORE
DROP IN PPI NUMBER SENDS BOND YIELDS LOWER... Today's negative PPI report means that wholesale prices (prices paid to producers) have been dropping for two months in a row. Falling prices raise fears of deflation, which is normally good for bonds and bad for stocks. At least that&... READ MORE
SOX DOWN 3%... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index has fallen 3% in morning trading and is the weakest part of the stock market. It also explains the morning's relative weakness in the technology sector. The daily chart shows the SOX moving down to test its first line of support... READ MORE
COMMODITY COMPARISONS... Mr. Greenspan has called a lot of attention over the past week to the strong upside potential in the natural gas market. We agree with his observations. Our charts suggest that natural has the most upside potential of all the energy markets. Even on a short-term basis, natural... READ MORE
NATURAL GAS LEADERS -- APACHE AND BURLINGTON... As a followup to our earlier update on a rising energy group, following are the leading stocks in each of the three energy indexes. In the natural gas group, Apache Corp has just broken through its late 2000 peak to score another upside... READ MORE
OVERSOLD DOLLAR BOUNCING -- EURO IS SLIPPING... Last Wednesday, we published an update entitled "Oversold Dollar Due For a Bounce". That analysis was based on two factors. One was that the Dollar Index had reached a long-term support level in the low 90s (which was the low hit... READ MORE
FREDDIE MAC TUMBLES... A high-level management shakeup at Freddie Mac sent that stock tumbling today in massive trading. The stock fell to a 52-week low before ending just above 50. While today's news clearly shocked the market, the monthly chart shows that FRE had already been deteriorating. The... READ MORE
DOWNSIDE REVERSAL ON HEAVY VOLUME... After climbing to the highest level in a year, the Nasdaq Composite Index suffered an apparent "key reversal day" on Friday. That's usually described as a higher open followed by a lower close -- and on heavy volume. That pretty much... READ MORE
ECB CUTS RATES TO 50-YEAR LOW... As was expected, the European Central Bank lowered short-term interest rates 50 basis points today to the lowest level in fifty years. What is a little surprising is that the Euro rose after the announcement -- while the dollar sold off. That suggests that... READ MORE
NEWMONT MINING NEARS MAJOR BREAKOUT... Our mid-day update talked about the ECB rate cut actually boosting the Euro and the price of gold today. The dollar fell. As a result, gold prices gained $5.00 and gold stocks jumped 4%. One of the best performing gold stocks is Newmont Mining,... READ MORE
FED BATTLE AGAINST DEFLATION HELPS... A few weeks back the Fed expressed new concerns about the threat of deflation. As a result, they made it clear that their desire was to either keep interest rates low/ or at least keep them from rising. While most of the emphasis in the... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM TREND STRENGTHENING... Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index stabilizing. The 14-day RSI line has risen above 30 for the first time in more than a month. The daily stochastic and MACD lines have also turned positive from oversold territory. We take this as a sign that the... READ MORE
DOW CHALLENGING 9000... Of the major averages, the Dow is the only one that hasn't broken out. We think that may be about to happen. The Dow is once again trying to break through the 9,000 barrier, which was the high set last December. It's... READ MORE
NASDAQ IS STILL DOMINANT... One of the tools we use at MurphyMorris Money Management to determine the health of the market is a ratio of the Nasdaq market to the NYSE. That enables us to determine which is the dominant index. The Nasdaq had assumed a leadership role at the... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS SHOWING LEADERSHIP... During the month of May, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index was the biggest percentage gainer. The chart shows the RUT having exceeded its late 2002 high in decisive fashion and trading at the highest level since last July. That's pretty impressive chart action. We... READ MORE
KAUFMAN & BROAD BIG WINNER FOR WEEK... Reflecting continuing strength in homebuilding stocks, Kaufman and Broad was the top percentage gainer in the S&P 500 over the past week. The stock surged through overhead resistance this week on heavy volume. Although the stock uptrend still looks strong, it... READ MORE
SOX NEARING BREAKOUT POINT... Semiconductor stocks were Friday's standout technology performer. The SOX gained better than 10% Friday to lead another strong market day, and is now within striking distance of its December 2 intra-day high at 394. Since the pattern of rising bottoms since last October has... READ MORE
JOHN WILL BE BACK TOMORROW... John's finishing up his vacation today and will be back tomorrow with an indepth weekly summary article. In the mean time, here's one of our most popular guest commentators, Dr. Joe Duarte, and his Stock of the Day. STOCK OF THE... READ MORE
INTRODUCTION... While John is finishing up his well-deserved vacation this week, we are bringing you market commentary from several different analysts. First up is Robert Deel, President of TradingSchool.com. Robert and John have known each other for years and Robert is recognized internationally as a expert trading instructor and... READ MORE
BOOK REVISION... As many of you may know, I wrote a book during 1990 entitled "Intermarket Technical Analysis". I've been busily engaged for the past few months in revising that earlier work. Hopefully, the newer version will be available later this year. The main reason for... READ MORE
STRONG DOLLAR POLICY IS OVER... Given its weak trend for over a year, we've suspected that the government was allowing the dollar to fall to stem deflationary tendencies and to create a little inflation. Treasury Secretary Snow's comments over the weekend appeared to support the view... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS AND STOCKS ARE DIVERGING... Throughout the three-year bear market, stock prices and bond yields have been moving together (which means that bond prices have been rising while stock prices have been falling). Since the start of April, however, bond yields and stocks have been moving in opposite directions... READ MORE
DOLLAR FALL IS TROUBLING, BUT IS GOOD FOR GOLD... Probably the biggest story of the week was the tumble in the dollar to a four-year low. Although most of the attention has been focused on the rising Euro, the fact is the dollar fell against virtually every other currency as... READ MORE
FED FINALLY WORRIED ABOUT DEFLATION... They didn't actually use the dreaded "d" word (deflation). But the Fed has finally started to worry about "an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation". With the Fed's favorite inflation gauge hovering around a 40-year low at 1%... READ MORE
ENERGY STOCKS SHOW SOME LEADERSHIP... In a mildly down market, energy stocks were the top gainers. The Oil Service Index (OSX) has risen to the highest level in more than two months. It's relative strength line has been weak, but may be turning up. The AMEX Oil Index... READ MORE
RESISTANCE LEVELS BROKEN... Last Friday, we showed three charts that were testing resistance barriers. This week all of the resistance barriers we showed have been broken. The Nasdaq Composite has cleared its January high and is now challenging the high hit near the end of November. The Bank Index has... READ MORE
DOLLAR HITS FOUR YEAR LOW -- GOLD JUMPS $5... One of the intermarket principles we follow is that a weaker dollar usually translates into higher gold prices. The Dollar Index dropped to the lowest level in four years today. As a result, gold prices jumped more than five dollars. Gold... READ MORE
CISCO LEADS NASDAQ TRADING... Because of its size, Cisco has a big influence on the technology sector and the Nasdaq in particular. That's why today's chart action is impressive. Cisco has broken through chart resistance formed since February. We'll reserve judgment on the level... READ MORE
HIGH TECH LEADERS... Charts 1 through 3 show three of today's standout high tech performers. Earlier today we showed Cisco breaking out to a three-month high. The volume bar shows today's volume to be the heaviest since the start of April. Cisco appears headed toward a... READ MORE
NASDAQ STALLING AT JANUARY HIGH... Although the market has shown some improvement of late, we have to point out that some stock indexes are stalled at chart resistance points defined by previous peaks and/or trendlines. The Nasdaq fits into the former category. Chart 1 shows that the Nasdaq Composite... READ MORE
INDUSTRIALS NEAR BREAKOUT... The Dow Industrials are challenging chart resistance along the highs of the past month near 8500 and are stalling a bit today. The odds for an upside breakout are very good however. For one thing, the sideways pattern in the Industrials since mid-March looks like an "... READ MORE