CISCO MOVES UP ON GOOD VOLUME... Cisco rallied to a new 52-week high today and was the most actively traded stock on the Nasdaq. Given the size of the stock, and its role as a Nasdaq bellwether, that was another encouraging sign for the technology sector. With Cisco having... READ MORE
VOLUME AND BREADTH ARE STRONG... The month of September got off to a roaring start today. Strong economic news at the start of the day pushed bond prices lower and stock prices higher. The dollar was also strong, while gold prices lost $3.00. One of the day's... READ MORE
THE DOLLAR IS TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGE... The Dollar Index has been rallying since June within the confines of a long-term downtrend. That rally may be about over. Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index (plotted through Thursday's close) starting to struggle at its 200-day moving average.... READ MORE
CRB STARTING TO RALLY AGAIN... Late last year the CRB Index hit a new five-year high. Since then, the commodity index has been in a large consolidation pattern. Since July, the CRB has started to rally again. This suggests that the long-term uptrend in commodity markets is resuming.... READ MORE
GOLD RISES OVER $370... In morning trading, the price of bullion is up $5.00. More importantly, gold is now trading over $370 for the first time in nearly three months. We take that as a bullish sign that gold may be starting another upleg. Gold still needs to clear... READ MORE
GOLD STOCKS JUMP 4.8%... The price of gold bullion gained $7.30 today to close at 374. That's the highest close in three months. Today's price jump pushed gold through the upper line in a symmetrical triangle that has existed since February. That suggests that... READ MORE
XEROX IS TOP S&P 500 GAINER... Xerox was the day's top percentage gainer in the S&P 500. Today's bounce appears to have come just in time. Chart 1 shows the stock bouncing sharply off its 200-day moving averge on the heaviest... READ MORE
NASDAQ COULD BE IN FIFTH WAVE ADVANCE... The recent downside correction in the Nasdaq market took place in three waves -- which qualifies that as an A-B-C correction. This week's move to new high ground signals the completion of that minor correction. While that's good... READ MORE
MORE TECH AND SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP... Two of the strongest parts of the market today were technology and small caps. Both influences helped the Nasdaq market close at a new 52-week high. It also did so on rising volume. That's a good combination. Small and mid-cap... READ MORE
GOLD STOCKS STILL SHINE... The two indexes of gold stocks that we track are now in confirmed major bull markets. The AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI), which includes only unhedged gold stocks, has been trading at a multi-year year for some time. The PHLX Gold/Silver (XAU) Index, however,... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS ARE FALLING... After briefly hitting another yearly high last week, yields on T-bond and notes are falling today. The short-term indicators also suggest that yields may be putting in short-term tops here. The 14-day RSI is showing negative divergence near 70; and the daily... READ MORE
QQQS ARE MOST ACTIVELY TRADED UNIT... At midday, we showed the Dow Industrials hitting a new 52-week high. The biggest percentage gain, however, was seen in the Nasdaq 100 Index. The QQQs were also the the most-actively traded issue in today's strong market advance. The daily... READ MORE
RATES ARE JUMPING AGAIN... Just a day after the Fed talked about keeping interest rates low, long-term yields rose sharply. A stronger-than-expected retail report caused T-bond and note prices to fall over a point. The yield on the 10-year T-note jumped to a new... READ MORE
MARKET LIKES FED'S BALANCED STATEMENT... No one was surprised that the Fed didn't make any rate changes today. What it did do was return to its statement of a couple of months ago that deflation was still a risk, that interest rates would stay low for... READ MORE
ATLANTIC CITY MONEY SHOW... I spent Thurday and Friday at the Atlantic City Money Show. While there, I had a chance to speak with many of our members who were kind enough to come up and say hello. That's always the nicest part of appearing at these shows.... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP AGAIN... T-bond and T-note prices fell heavily today, which pushed yields higher. The 10-year T-note yield ended the day at 4.44%. That once again puts yields within striking distance of yearly highs. Yesterday, we showed that yields were testing a three-year... READ MORE
BANKS AND BROKERS ARE FALLING... Our Friday evening update showed healthcare and financials pulling the market lower. That trend is continuing in Monday trading. The bank and brokerage indexes have fallen under their 50-day averages. The Bank Index, which is the weaker of the two, is threatening its early... READ MORE
BOND PRICES ARE OVERSOLD... Bonds bounced a bit today, which means that yields fell a bit. Chart 1 shows that the 10-year T-note yield is overbought (which means that bond prices are oversold). The daily RSI line has moved back under 70 for the first time in three... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE AND FINANCIALS BREAK MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORT... All market sectors lost ground on Friday. Two of the biggest losers, however, were the healthcare and financial groups. The Dow Jones Healthcare Index fell decisively under its 50-day moving average. Drugs were hit especially hard. In the financial sector, banks and... READ MORE
YIELDS HIT NEW 12-MONTH HIGH... A whole battery of strong economic news today appears to be confirming what the bond market has been telling us for weeks -- that the economy is getting stronger. As Chart 1 shows, that news has pushed the 10-year T-note yield to the... READ MORE
DOW UNABLE TO SET NEW HIGH... The Dow Industrials made a run at the June 17 intra-day high at 9352. After hitting 9362 earlier in the day, it faded to close up only 33 points at 9233. Chart 1 shows the daily bars. It's normally not a... READ MORE
LEADERSHIP LOSES MOMENTUM... Upside momentum in the leading market indexes continues to weaken. To demonstrate that, we're applying the Average Directional Index (or the ADX line) to the chart of the Nasdaq 100. The ADX line measures the strength of the existing trend. A rising ADX, therefore, is... READ MORE
FIDELITY SELECT GOLD IS NUMBER ONE FOR THE WEEK... It should come as no surprise to find that last week's sector mutual fund leaders were in commodity-related groups like gold and industrial materials. We showed several charts last week of individual stocks in this area breaking out... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS HIT NEW RECOVERY HIGH... Of the three Dow Averages, the Transports are turning in the strongest performance. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports hitting a new high for the year. Yesterday, we showed Ryder rallying as part of a rotation into cyclical stocks. Today's transport leaders are... READ MORE
50-DAY AVERAGES CONTINUE TO HOLD... We've been talking a lot lately about 50-day moving averages. That's because that's an important support line during any consoldation period -- like the one we're in now. The S&P 500 has been bouncing... READ MORE
DRUG INDEX IS SLIDING... Drug stocks are coming under some heavy selling pressure today. That's reflected in the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index, which slipped under its 50-day line last week. The DRG appears headed toward its May low and its 200-day line. Disappointing earnings from Merck is... READ MORE
SURGE OVER 4%... The yield on the 10-year T-note jumped to 4.17% today, which was the highest close in since last December. We offered the view last week that long-term rates had probably hit bottom. Today's surge in long-term rates strengthens that view.... READ MORE
DOW STAYS ABOVE 9,000... Of all the stock indexes we're watching, the Dow is in the most critical spot. That's because it was the last of the major indexes to breakout to the upside. And, it's been retesting its breakout point near 9,... READ MORE
IBM LEADS DOW LOWER... Last night, IBM reported solid earnings. Today, the stock fell heavily on big volume. That's what happens when the market builds in expectations that are unrealistically high. The big selloff in IBM that started in overnight trading set a gloomy tone in the entire... READ MORE
UPBREAT TESTIMONY... Mr. Greenspan's upbeat testimony before Congress isn't having the effect he'd like to see. The Fed chairman testified that the Fed would keep rates as low as possible to support an "accelerating" economic recovery. Unfortunately, the Fed can't... READ MORE
MARKETS DON'T BUY FED JAWBONING... It seems Mr. Greenspan has lost respect for the markets -- and the intelligence of its participants. In today's testimony, he promised to keep interest rates down to promote an economic recovery that he saw accelerating. He also said that "substantial... READ MORE
LARGE CAPS NEED ANOTHER BREAKOUT... Earlier in the week I noted that small caps were leading the market advance, which is a good thing. For the uptrend to continue, however, the large caps have to confirm the upside breakout in the small cap stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADERS... The Nasdaq touched another 52-week high and continues to lead the market higher. The first three charts show some of the day's biggest percentage gainers in the Nasdaq. Ciena soared to a six-month high on monster volume. That's a strong combination. RF... READ MORE
LOW VOLUME LOSSES... A weak employment report this morning caused a little nervous profit-taking in the stock market. The fact that today is the eve of a three-day weekend may have also caused a little selling. Even with only a half day of trading, volume was very light.... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES HOLD SUPPORT... After trading lower throughout the morning, all the major stock averages closed higher today. All things considered, it was a pretty impressive performance. Breadth figures were positive -- especially on the big board. The only thing missing was heavier volume. But up volume did exceed down volume... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP... Within two days after the Fed lowered short-term rates to 1.00%, long-term rates are jumping. I'm sure that's not what the Fed wanted -- nor the stock market. At mid-week, I wrote that a move over 3.50% by the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP SHARPLY... The Fed cut the Fed funds rate a quarter point today to l.00%. That's the lowest level in 45 years. [The Fed fund rate stood at 6.50% in January 2001 when the Fed started cutting]. Even so, the bond and stock markets... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR HAS BOOSTED COMMODITY PRICES... Deflation is one of the main issues the Fed is dealing with. With another Fed decision on interest rates less than a day way, I thought it a good time to review the relationship between the dollar and commodity prices. We've pointed... READ MORE
NOT ALL BULLS ARE THE SAME... As usual, there's a debate going on as to whether the current market advance is a bear market rally or a new bull market. Our position, which we've expressed many times before, is that we're in a "... READ MORE
PROFIT-TAKING IN BIOTECHS... Biotechs are one of the day's weakest market groups. The daily chart shows the BTK slipping into a short-term correction. The RSI line is dropping and the MACD lines have turned negative for the first time in two months. Given the steepness of... READ MORE