FED FINALLY WORRIED ABOUT DEFLATION... They didn't actually use the dreaded "d" word (deflation). But the Fed has finally started to worry about "an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation". With the Fed's favorite inflation gauge hovering around a 40-year low at 1%... READ MORE
ENERGY STOCKS SHOW SOME LEADERSHIP... In a mildly down market, energy stocks were the top gainers. The Oil Service Index (OSX) has risen to the highest level in more than two months. It's relative strength line has been weak, but may be turning up. The AMEX Oil Index... READ MORE
RESISTANCE LEVELS BROKEN... Last Friday, we showed three charts that were testing resistance barriers. This week all of the resistance barriers we showed have been broken. The Nasdaq Composite has cleared its January high and is now challenging the high hit near the end of November. The Bank Index has... READ MORE
DOLLAR HITS FOUR YEAR LOW -- GOLD JUMPS $5... One of the intermarket principles we follow is that a weaker dollar usually translates into higher gold prices. The Dollar Index dropped to the lowest level in four years today. As a result, gold prices jumped more than five dollars. Gold... READ MORE
CISCO LEADS NASDAQ TRADING... Because of its size, Cisco has a big influence on the technology sector and the Nasdaq in particular. That's why today's chart action is impressive. Cisco has broken through chart resistance formed since February. We'll reserve judgment on the level... READ MORE
HIGH TECH LEADERS... Charts 1 through 3 show three of today's standout high tech performers. Earlier today we showed Cisco breaking out to a three-month high. The volume bar shows today's volume to be the heaviest since the start of April. Cisco appears headed toward a... READ MORE
NASDAQ STALLING AT JANUARY HIGH... Although the market has shown some improvement of late, we have to point out that some stock indexes are stalled at chart resistance points defined by previous peaks and/or trendlines. The Nasdaq fits into the former category. Chart 1 shows that the Nasdaq Composite... READ MORE
INDUSTRIALS NEAR BREAKOUT... The Dow Industrials are challenging chart resistance along the highs of the past month near 8500 and are stalling a bit today. The odds for an upside breakout are very good however. For one thing, the sideways pattern in the Industrials since mid-March looks like an "... READ MORE
NASDAQ HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH... Stock indexes achieved upside breakouts all over the place today. The Nasdaq Composite Index finally broke through the top of its month-long trading range to achieve a three-month high. The Semiconductor (SOX) confirmed that positive move with an upside breakout of its own. The SOX is... READ MORE
DOW LOSES 8.75, BUT ON LIGHT VOLUME... The subdued action in the Dow pretty much reflected Monday's quiet trading. The Dow dropped 8.75 points, but on very light volume. Breadth was modestly positive on both the big board and the Nasdaq. The fact that Europe was... READ MORE
FRIDAY'S TECHNOLOGY LEADERS... Technology stocks were the strongest gainers on Thursday -- and for the entire week. Two of Thursday's biggest gainers were Broadcom and Nokia. Both reported good earnings and were rewarded for it. Broadcom gapped through its 200- day average and its March high.... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADS BOUNCE... Our last update on Monday talked about the need for the Nasdaq to start showing some upside leadership. We got some of that yesterday -- and again this morning. The fact that the Nasdaq 100 is pulling the Nasdaq Composite higher is good news as well,... READ MORE
DOW FALLS BACK UNDER 200-DAY LINE... The Dow was the hardest hit of the major stock averages today. It was also somewhat symbolic of the tug-of-war that went on within the market itself. The Dow's two biggest winners were Intel and Microsoft, reflecting buying in the technology sector.... READ MORE
FINANCIALS SPDR TRADING OVER 200-DAY AVERAGE... Financial stocks are helping lead the market in another test of 200-day moving averages. Chart 1 shows the Financials Select Sector SPDR trading just above that reistance line near mid-day. The relative strength line along the bottom of the chart has turned up since... READ MORE
NASDAQ VS. THE NYSE... Chart 1 plots a ratio of the Nasdaq Composite divided by the NYSE Index. The line has been rising since last October, reflecting better relative performance by the Nasdaq. That's usually a good sign for the market as a whole. Since the middle of... READ MORE
MONTHLY TREND IS STILL DOWN... Judging from all the media noise about the war, you'd think a lot had happened in the stock market over the past month. It hasn't. To show how little has changed, we're starting our weekly roundup with a monthly... READ MORE
GOLD BUGS INDEX STABILIZING... We thought it a good time to revisit the situation of gold stocks. We're using the AMEX Gold Bugs Index for this analysis, because we feel it more accurately represents the situation in this sector. [The AMEX Gold Index focuses on "unhedged"... READ MORE
GE REACHES RESISTANCE BARRIER... Two of the biggest stocks on the big board and the Nasdaq are pulling back today. We recently talked about General Electric moving up to challenge the peak hit around the end of November. Chart 1 shows that GE has reached that resistance barrier and is... READ MORE
TECHNICAL STRENGTH... In a strong start to the week, the Dow and the S&P 500 stock indexes have exceeded their 200-day moving averages. The S&P 500 has also exceeded its March high. This pretty confirms our belief (which we expressed in our Market Message last Wednesday)... READ MORE
MARKET AVERAGES END BACK UNDER 200-DAY LINES... This morning's upside break through 200-day moving average lines didn't hold thru the close. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow and the S&P 500 closing below that stubborn resistance line. Although the afternoon price fade was... READ MORE
UTILITIES ARE TOP SECTOR... The chart of the Dow Utilities shows that Index heading toward its 200-day moving average. The relative strength line along the bottom shows the utilities outperforming the Dow Industrials since December. Two of the week's top percentage gainers were AES Corp. and Calpine Corp.... READ MORE
DOW MAY BE STARTING SECOND UPLEG... Yesterday afternoon's bounce carried into today's trading and is starting to look like the start of another upleg. The Dow is gaining 185 points and could be poised to re-challenge its 200-day average and the highs of two week'... READ MORE
MICROSOFT EXCEEDS 200-DAY LINE... The three stocks shown below have two things in common. First, all three are considered to be bellwethers for the stock market. Secondly, all three are trading above their 200-day moving averages, and are helping lead today's impressive stock rally. Microsoft is the biggest... READ MORE
DOW JUMPS 215 POINTS... The Dow (and the rest of the market) had the most impressive day since this rally started three weeks ago. Breadth was positive and volume was good. As we suggested earlier today, we believe this is probably the start of a second upleg, which could carry... READ MORE
BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE... The S&P 500 was the biggest percentage gainer today among the major stock averages. Its a good thing too, because the benchmark index bounced off its 50-day moving average -- and potential chart support along the 850 level. [The Dow is also holding over... READ MORE
DOW SLIPPING UNDER 8000... The U.S. stock market is following big losses in overseas markets with some big losses of its own. The Dow is currently trading under its 50-day average -- and the 8,000 level. This puts the Dow below its mid-February breakout point near 8100. Needless... READ MORE
AVON PRODUCTS LEADS CONSUMER STAPLES... Some consumer staples had a good day today -- possibly as a defensive measure. Avon Products was a standout performer. Chart 1 shows AVP surging to a new recovery high on good volume. Its monthly chart (Chart 2) shows the stock actually challenging its all-time... READ MORE
CRB INDEX ENTERS DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- BUT IS NOW OVERSOLD... The last time we analyzed the CRB Commodity Index, we expressed caution as it approached formidable chart resistance along the 1996-1997 peaks -- and also looked over-extended at the time. We talked about it being vulnerable to a downturn. That&... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE LEADERS INCLUDE BIOTECHS -- LIKE GILEAD SCIENCES... Yesterday's messages talked about strength in healthcare stocks -- including biotechs. Several biotech stocks are having strong days today. Here's what they look like. Gilead is the top gainer. After recently breaking through its November highs, it'... READ MORE
INDEXES TRADING OVER THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES... The first three charts show health-related stock indexes. There's one thing all three have in common. They're all trading over their 200-day moving averages. Outside of technology, this the only other sector that can make that claim. HealthCare is just... READ MORE
AETNA MOVING UP... Earlier today we showed charts of the healthcare group. The following charts show some of the healthcare stocks that have led the move up in that group and which, in our opinion, have promising chart patterns. We're showing them in alphabetical order. Aetna has recently... READ MORE
DOW BACK UNDER 200-DAY AVERAGE... All of the positive intermarket trends of last Friday are being reversed today. The Dow has already lost 3% and has given back all of the Friday's gain and more. More importantly, today's price drop puts the Dow back under its... READ MORE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NYSE... Back on Wednesday, March 12 (the day before the recent rally started) we did an analysis of NYSE Composite Index with the headline: "Market Reaching Critical Juncture -- IT'S OVERSOLD BUT STILL NEGATIVE". Given the sharp moves since then -- first... READ MORE
COMMODITIES PLUNGE...DOLLAR RALLIES... Key commodities continued their plunge this week. May crude oil ended the week below $27 and appears headed for a test of last November's low at $25. Gold prices fell another $6.90 today to close at $326. That puts gold at its major... READ MORE
PHARMACEUTICALS ADVANCE... Drug stocks led the market higher in the face of an imminent breakout of war. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index since last October. The fact that the latest decline to 275 held at its September low -- which is well above the October low -- is... READ MORE
SOX TESTING 200-DAY LINE... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index is gaining 6% today and is leading the technology sector higher. The techs, in turn, are leading the rest of the market. Last week we showed the SOX exceeding its 50-day average and breaking its three-month down trendline. This morning, it'... READ MORE
FIRST TO CROSS 50-DAY AVERAGE... One of the first non-tech indexes to cross back over its 50-day moving average is the S&P 500 Largecap Growth Index. There are two important parts of that title -- large and growth. Big stocks have been doing better than smaller stocks. And... READ MORE
EQUITY ENVIRONMENT IMPROVING... The latest 2003 MurphyMorris Money Management Model Update can be viewed from the MurphyMorris.com home page by clicking in the yellow box on the top right of the page. One of the most important factors in our Model is the relative strength of the Nasdaq versus... READ MORE
INDEXES EXCEEDING MOVING AVERAGES... One of the easiest ways to see which group average are leading the market higher is to look for those that are breaking through moving average lines. The most impressive is the Nasdaq, which has exceeded both its 50- and 200-day lines. Two of the tech... READ MORE
NASDAQ TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGE -- GOOD RELATIVE STRENGTH... The market had a good week -- topped off by Thursday's impressive rebound. Yesterday we showed the Nasdaq 100 exceeding its February high and its 200-day average. The Nasdaq Composite Index is still testing those resistance barriers. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE