DOW PROBING BOTTOM OF BIG TRADING RANGE -- AND LOOKING OVERSOLD... The Dow Industrials have reached the bottom of the eight-month trading range defined by the July/October lows. At the same time, daily oscillators show an "oversold" reading. The 9-day RSI line has just dipped under 30... READ MORE
TOO MUCH NEWS... I had been scheduled to do a CNBC TV interview this evening on the Business Center show. That interview has been cancelled. CNBC decided to cancel its scheduled guests to make room for more important news. I'M SCHEDULED TO BE ON NBR FRIDAY EVENING... No... READ MORE
ECU LOWERS INTEREST RATES -- EUROPEAN STOCKS FALL... The European central bank lowered short-term rates a quarter of a point today. In the past, that might have boosted stocks. Not anymore. European stock markets sold off after the cut. As has been the case in the states for the past... READ MORE
THE GOLD BUGS INDEX FAVORS UNHEDGED STOCKS... Most people look at the PHLX Gold & Silver (XAU) Index to plot the trend of gold stocks. However, there's another lesser-known index called the AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI). Each index includes eleven stocks. Seven of the same stocks are... READ MORE
AUTOS SELL OFF ON HEAVY VOLUME... It seems like anything related to autos got sold heavily today. General Motors was the biggest drag on the Dow. Chart 1 shows GM tumbling toward its October low on a big pickup in trading activity. That's not good. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
DOWNSIDE REVERAL FROM $40... We recently plotted a long-term chart showing major overhead oil resistance near $40 -- which represented the 1990 peak. Last Thursday, nearby oil futures touched $39.99 before falling sharply. Since then, oil has been weakening. This morning, oil prices are down another 70 cents to... READ MORE
CURRENT MARKET POSTURE... The following is an update of our current market posture at MurphyMorris Money Management -- which is based on a technically-based Decision Model. When the investment climate is right, we invest in equity mutual funds that show superior relative strength. At the moment, the only funds that... READ MORE
TESTING 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index is up about 2% today and is the strongest part of the technology sector -- which is the day's strongest sector. The daily chart shows the SOX trying to climb above its (blue) 50-day moving average. A close above that... READ MORE
TECHS HAD A RELATIVELY GOOD MONTH... Chart 1 shows the NDX closing up for the month. The Nasdaq Composite did the same. They were the only two of the major stock indexes to gain during the past month. As we suggested earlier today, however, it's usually good for... READ MORE
BIG DROP IN NEW HOME SALES CAUSES SELLING IN HOMEBUILDERS... New home sales saw the biggest drop in nine years. Not surprisingly, that weak number caused some selling in homebuilders today. The selling also came on fairly heavy trading, which is always a cause for concern. Chartwise, homebuilders are also... READ MORE
HEWLETT BREAKING SUPPORT ON VOLUME... Hewlett Packard is suffering a technical breakdown today. Chart 1 shows the big computer maker falling under its February low (and its 200-day average) on heavy volume. [Notice also that it's recent low-volume bounce failed at its (blue) 50-day moving average]. Chart 1... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL SPIKES AGAIN -- NEARS $38... April crude oil prices spiked up another $1.64 to close at 37.70. That puts prices within striking distance of the peak formed during late 2000. A close above $38 would put crude at the highest level since 1990 when it rose... READ MORE
JAPAN SINKS 220 POINTS... Starting in Asia, global markets had a bad day -- even before our markets opened. The Nikkei 225 Index fell over 200 points and is threatening its old low. In Europe, markets lost 2-3% with the German DAX showing the biggest loss of 3.35%. That... READ MORE
DOW ENDS UP 51 POINTS... After falling earlier in the day, the Dow Industrials ended up 51 points for the day. As Chart 1 shows, the upside reversal took place on rising volume. That's a good sign -- if there's follow-through tomorrow. The Dow still needs... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE INDEX TURNS UP... With energy prices staying firm, oil service stocks have turned their trend upward. [The biggest development today was the jump in heating oil prices through their 1989-1990 peak at 1.10 -- and reaching the highest level since 1979]. Natural gas stocks are also strong... READ MORE
HEATING OIL AND NATURAL GAS SURGE... Heating oil prices surged to the highest level in twenty years today. Natural gas prices jumped more than 30%. As a result, energy shares were the top (and only) winners for the day. Oil service and natural gas stocks were the leadership in the... READ MORE
BIG TECHS CLIMBING OVER 50-DAY LNES... The most-actives list on the Nasdaq is a who's who of big technology stocks. A number of them are climbing back over their 50-day moving averages -- which is a sign of market leadership (and represents at least a short-term buy signal)... READ MORE
THERE'S RESISTANCE NEAR $38... Over the past couple of weeks, we talked about gold being overbought (and due for a correction) and the CRB Index nearing chart resistance at six-year highs. The same is true for crude oil. Chart 1 shows nearby crude oil futures ending last week... READ MORE
BUT ON LOW VOLUME... The stock market continued the oversold bounce that started late last week. Unfortunately, volume remains light. Rising volume is one of key ingredients of a serious market advance. So far, it's missing. That leans us toward the view that this is an oversold bounce... READ MORE
DELL BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT ON VOLUME... Some good news out of Dell Computer is prompting some heavy buying today. Chart 1 shows the stock gapping higher on rising volume (DELL is the most actively-traded Nasdaq stock today). The 14-day RSI oscillator appears to have bottomed near 30. In addition, the... READ MORE
CUTTING PAPER PROFITS... The Paper and Forest Product Index is falling to a three-month low today. It's green relative strength line has been holding up pretty well since the October bottom. But it may start rolling over. The daily MACD lines turned negative a month ago -- giving... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET BOUNCE... The Nasdaq 100 -- inspired by a bounce in the big tech stocks -- gained over 3% today and was the day's strongest stock index. It's usually a good sign for the market when the big techs are showing better relative... READ MORE
DOW HITS ANOTHER FOUR-MONTH LOW... The major averages fell to another four-month low today. The S&P 500 ended down 10 points near 818 and is bearing down on its October lows. That will be an important test for the market. As we've said before, we wouldn&... READ MORE
CRB INDEX NEARING RESISTANCE... The bull market in commodity prices is reflected in the CRB Index rising to the highest level in five and half years. However, the CRB is approaching a potential resistance zone, which may stall its advance -- or at least cause some profit-taking. The two levels... READ MORE
TREND IS STILL DOWN TO FLAT... After a weak start, the Dow (and the other major stock indexes) closed higher today. The Dow gained 55 points. Breadth was positive, but volume was light. On a short-term basis, the Dow has also reached an oversold condition. The 9-day RSI oscillator along... READ MORE
CONSUMER INDEX THREATENING OCTOBER LOW... The Morgan Stanley Consumer Index is designed to measure the performance of consumer-oriented, stable growth industries. The major industries are beverage, food, drug, tobacco, and personal product sectors. Normally, this is thought of as a defensive group. At the moment, however, the CMR is threatening... READ MORE
S&P 500 IN A SECULAR BEAR... Along with other technical analysts, we've made the point several times over the past year that the market is now in a "secular" bear trend. Let's make it clear what that means. Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
MARKET AVERAGES CONTINUE TO ERODE... The Dow and the other major stock averages slipped beneath minor chart support along the lows of the last eight trading days to keep their short-term downtrend intact. Although there were a lot more losers than winners, there were some winners -- mainly in the... READ MORE
DOW RUNS INTO CHART RESISTANCE... The Dow rallied into midday following Mr. Powell's UN testimony before fading. The Dow ended with a 28 point loss. Chart 1 is a 30-minute bar chart of the Dow covering the last seven trading days. It clearly shows a minor trading range... READ MORE
AIG PULLS ENTIRE INSURANCE GROUP DOWN... American International has tumbled below its October low on heavy volume. That puts the big insurer at the lowest level in seven months. That's weighing heavily on all insurance stocks, which are the day's weakest group. Chartwise, it's... READ MORE
INSURERS FALL HARD... Earlier today we showed the collapse in American International Group to a new seven-month low on very heavy volume (AIG was the most actively-traded NYSE stock). Other insurance stocks were caught in the AIG downdraft. Chubb fell under recent support to a new 52-week low on increasing... READ MORE
AMAT FALLS... Applied Materials has tumbled to the lowest level since last October. That makes it the biggest percentage loser in the Nasdaq market -- and is weighing on the Semiconductor(SOX) Index as well. As a result, technology is the weakest market sector in morning trading. Chart 1 OTHER... READ MORE
JANUARY BAROMETER... The fact that the market ended down for the January is a negative omen for the year -- or so goes the January Barometer. That barometer is based on the idea that "as January goes, so goes the year." We can think whatever we wish about... READ MORE
CANADIAN DOLLAR... Following our positive comments on the Canadian market last evening, we were asked several questions on the Canadian market today. Let's take a more extensive look at that market -- starting with its currency. Chart 1 shows the Canadian Dollar starting to bottom about two years... READ MORE
REITS PEAKED LAST JULY... One of our members asked today about the technical situation on the REITs -- and their role in the intermarket picture. Chart 1 is a daily chart of Morgan Stanley REIT Index for the past year. The chart shows a "double top" forming during... READ MORE
DAX TESTING OCTOBER LOW-- FTSE AT 7-YEAR LOW... We thought it a good time to see how foreign stock markets are faring relative to our own. Europe has been having a tough time. The two biggest European markets are shown below. The German DAX Index has fallen all the way... READ MORE
LAST MAJOR INDEX TO FALL... A lot is being made in the media about the Dow falling back under 8,000 today. Since the Dow had already broken down last week (along with most of the NYSE averages), we think the bigger news involves the Nasdaq market. The Nasdaq Composite... READ MORE
CHART BREAKDOWN... It looks like the market is going to end the week on a downer. Near midday the Dow is down over 200 points and, more importantly, has fallen under its late-December low at 8250. If those lower prices hold through today's close, that will represent a... READ MORE
SELLING PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... Last Friday we used the ADX line (and its two accompanying lines) to show the absence of a trend in the market during its recent advance. That led us to conclude that, absent a trend, the market would probably start to weaken from the top of its... READ MORE
AT&T GAPS BELOW KEY SUPPORT... AT&T (T) is gapping down today below its 200-day moving average and bottom of the neutral range that its been trading in since early November (see shaded rectangle). The stock is down close to 20% on massive volume and is currently... READ MORE