SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CLEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE... Airlines stocks continue to gain more ground. Although the entire group is rising, three in particular caught my eye. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show Southwest Airlines (LUV) having cleared resistance along its early 2020 peak and reaching the highest level in more than... READ MORE
MATERIALS NEAR RECORD... In a generally positive market day, materials are one of the days strongest sectors. Chart 1 shows the Materials Sector SPDR (XLB) gapping higher and nearing a new record. It's being led higher by aluminum and steel stocks which are also having a strong day.... READ MORE
In this special presentation, Larry goes "way out on a limb" and gives a market forecast based on the tools he trusts and wants to share with you. So how can we see the future? Through seasonals, cycles, intermarket relationships, technical strength/weakness and, economic data. This video... READ MORE
It's never a good idea to try and predict contra-trend moves in a strong equity bull market, because the benefit of the doubt always goes with the prevailing trend. If false moves develop, they have a strong tendency to develop on the downside. That said, several key indexes... READ MORE
THE NASDAQ MARKET REMAINS ON THE DEFENSIVE...The Nasdaq market remains on the defensive. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust meeting resistance at its 50-day average. That's mainly because of weaker tech stocks. Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) trading below its 50-day line as well.... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD SPIKES HIGER... Bond yields continue to spike higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield jumping 9 basis points to 1.73% which is the highest level in fourteen months. That's helping lift financial shares, but weighing heavily on technology stocks. As a result, the Nasdaq... READ MORE
MARKETS REBOUND... Stocks rebounded following today's dovish Fed statement. In addition, the 10-Year Treasury yield pared some of its earlier gains. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow and S&P 500 touching new records. Chart 3 shows the Nasdaq Composite trading back above its 50-day moving... READ MORE
The longer-term indicators have been bullish on bond yields (bearish on prices) for a while now. However, they are now being joined by a number of commentators offering a similar view, which makes me uncomfortable. Don't get me wrong, the indicators are still pointing to a primary yield... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD EXCEEDS 1.60%...After a modest consolidation, bond yields are spiking again. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing 10 basis points to 1.63% which puts it at the highest level in more than a year. The weekly bars in Chart 2... READ MORE
NASDAQ AND TECH SPDR REGAIN 50-DAY AVERAGE...The tech-dominated Nasdaq market led a broad rally in stocks today. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 2.5% and trading back above its 50-day moving average. It was the strongest of the three major stock indexes. The Dow Industrials and... READ MORE
TECH NEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE... While the Dow and S&P 500 are trading higher today, with the Dow in record territory, the tech-dominated Nasdaq market continues to lag behind the rest of the market. Chart 1 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) nearing a test of its 50-day moving average... READ MORE
Back in the opening week of the yearl I wrote an article entitled Four Charts and Four Themes of the First Half of 2021. Three of them - higher stocks, higher commodities and value starting to outperform growth - are so far on track, but my negative analysis concerning US... READ MORE
ENERGY STILL IN THE LEAD... After a hectic week when a rise in bond yields caused some profit-taking in technology stocks and the Nasdaq market, a strong jobs report on Friday helped stocks end the week on a strong note. One of the factors driving bond yields higher is expectations... READ MORE
BOND YIELD JUMPS... Bond yields are spiking higher again today following dovish remarks from Jerome Powell. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield jumping 7 basis points to 1.54% and putting in on track for the highest close in more than a year. As a result, stocks are coming... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 FALLS BACK BELOW 50-DAY LINE... Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust losing -2.8% today and falling further below its 50-day moving average. Technology was the day's weakest sector along with consumer discretionary stocks. Eight of the eleven market sectors ended lower. More cyclical parts... READ MORE
Technology, as reflected in the tech-dominated NASDAQ Composite, peaked as a group in 2000 and sank in popularity for the next 3 years. Since then, as shown by the relative graph in Chart 1, it has recaptured all of that lost ground. Now, its long-term KST may have started to... READ MORE
GOLD SPDR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...With all the talk about rising inflation and rising commodity prices, it may seem strange to see the gold market still in a downtrend. But it is. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) falling to the lowest level since last... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD REACHES 1.50%... The 10-Year Treasury yield is spiking above 1.50% today for the first time in a year. The size and speed of the yield advance is putting downside pressure on stocks, and technology stocks in particular. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust trading below... READ MORE
ROTATION FROM GROWTH TO VALUE... One of the side-effects of rising bond yields has been a rotation out of technology-dominated growth shares into more cyclical value shares. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 Growth iShares (IVW) pulling back over the last week and trying to stay above its... READ MORE
Many confidence relationships I follow have been confined to multi-year trading ranges, as investors have consistently swung between optimism and fear. The latest data show that many have rallied sharply and reached the upper region of this rangebound activity. That either means it's time to regroup and launch... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS HIT NEW RECORD...While looking through today's sector charts, I was struck by the differing performance between transportation stocks and utilities. And that difference should carry good news for stocks in general. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average rising into record territory today. It&... READ MORE
POTENTIAL BOND YIELD RESISTANCE...The recent upmove in bond yields is attracting the attention of bond and stock holders. It's obviously negative for bond prices. But it could lead to some selling of stocks if bond yields were to climb too far too fast. So let's... READ MORE
FINANCIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD...Energy and financials are the day's two strongest sectors. Freezing temperatures across the U.S. are pushing energy prices higher today and energy stocks along with them. Financials are also having a strong day courtesy of another jump in Treasury bond yields. Chart... READ MORE
A few weeks ago I wrote an article entitled "Only a Fool Tries to Call a Correction in a Bull Market, So Here Goes!" Okay, so we did get a 4% drop in the Dow over a seven day period, but hardly anything worth worrying about. It reiterated... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR YIELD EXTENDS UPTREND... The uptrend in bond yields is continuing. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield touching a new recovery high in today's trading. That puts the TNX at the highest level since last March. The horizontal line in Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
CRB INDEX BREAKS TRENDLINE RESISTANCE... The current rally in commodity markets is attracting a lot of attention. Not just because commodities represent an asset class that's been attracting a lot of money over the last year. But also because of their intermarket implications. Stronger commodity markets are usually... READ MORE
They say that a rising tide lifts all boats, and so it is with freely traded markets. In the boating world, you can spot a rising tide with a steadily rising boat, but, with markets, the simplest approach is to observe a series of rising peaks and troughs. However, there... READ MORE
ENERGY SPDR NEARS TEST OF JUNE HIGH...Energy stocks continue to show both absolute and relative strength. They're leading the market higher today, and have been the market's strongest sector over the last three months. And they're approaching an important test. The daily bars... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD... Stocks are ending the week on a firm note with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading in record territory. The Dow isn't far behind. Small cap stocks, however, continue to lead the market higher. The daily bars in Chart 1... READ MORE
BITCOIN BOUNCES OFF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE... A couple of recent messages took a look at Bitcoin as it underwent a downside correction. We'll take another look today. The main message is that it's starting to look stronger. Chart 1 shows Bitcoin in what looks like a... READ MORE
The business cycle approximates 41-months between the low points of slowdowns or recessions. For the record, a slowdown develops when the growth path of the economy declines, but not sufficiently to result in an actual recession, when economic momentum goes negative. The important point to bear in mind is that... READ MORE
GAMESTOP AND AMC GAP SHARPLY LOWER... The recent short-squeeze mania may have finally run its course. Charts 1 and 2 show GameStop And AMC gapping sharply lower today. Other stocks caught up in the short squeeze are trading sharply lower as well. To the extent that last week's... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER ... Technology stocks are the strongest sector in a strong market day. The Technology SPDR (XLK) is trading nearly 3% higher today. The biggest tech stocks are also having a strong day. Chart 1 shows Apple gaining nearly 2% while keeping its uptrend intact. Chart 2... READ MORE
STOCKS TURN MORE DEFENSIVE...With stocks under pressure this week, it makes sense to see its eleven market sectors taking a more defensive turn as well. Chart 1 ranks the eleven market sectors from the strongest at the top to the weakest on the bottom. The first thing to notice... READ MORE
STOCKS TEST MOVING AVERAGE LINES... Stock indexes remain under pressure again today and are pressuring moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early November. It may be headed for a test of a potential support line drawn... READ MORE
The Fed has pledged to keep short-term rates around zero for an extended period. That's certainly in their power, and Chart 1, which features the 3-month Libor, indicates no sign of life. There is also quite a distance between the latest plot and its 12-month MA. At this... READ MORE
DAILY MACD LINES SHOW NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... Stocks are undergoing some profit-taking today in a market that looks stretched on the upside. One of the factors that concerns me is the relatively weak performance by daily MACD lines. Chart 1 overlays the MACD lines on a daily chart of the S&... READ MORE
BITCOIN RETESTS JANUARY LOW... Bitcoin remains in a downside correction that started earlier in January. And it's testing some important support levels. The daily bars in Chart 1 show bitcoin testing a couple of support levels formed earlier in the month (horizontal lines). It's also nearing... READ MORE
BIT TECHS ARE DOING BETTER... The largest technology stocks have been trading sideways over the past few months while the rest of the market has been rallying. The last two days, however, are showing money starting to flow back into some of the biggest tech stocks. Chart 1 shows Apple... READ MORE
Last week, I recorded a 40-minute presentation with my friend Bruce Fraser on the 2021 outlook. It's currently being featured on StockCharts TVand calls for a significant extension to the bull market. We present a number of long-term charts featuring several indicators whose bullish signals have consistently been... READ MORE