10-YEAR YIELD EXCEEDS 1.60%...After a modest consolidation, bond yields are spiking again. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing 10 basis points to 1.63% which puts it at the highest level in more than a year. The weekly bars in Chart 2... READ MORE
NASDAQ AND TECH SPDR REGAIN 50-DAY AVERAGE...The tech-dominated Nasdaq market led a broad rally in stocks today. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 2.5% and trading back above its 50-day moving average. It was the strongest of the three major stock indexes. The Dow Industrials and... READ MORE
TECH NEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE... While the Dow and S&P 500 are trading higher today, with the Dow in record territory, the tech-dominated Nasdaq market continues to lag behind the rest of the market. Chart 1 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) nearing a test of its 50-day moving average... READ MORE
Back in the opening week of the yearl I wrote an article entitled Four Charts and Four Themes of the First Half of 2021. Three of them - higher stocks, higher commodities and value starting to outperform growth - are so far on track, but my negative analysis concerning US... READ MORE
ENERGY STILL IN THE LEAD... After a hectic week when a rise in bond yields caused some profit-taking in technology stocks and the Nasdaq market, a strong jobs report on Friday helped stocks end the week on a strong note. One of the factors driving bond yields higher is expectations... READ MORE
BOND YIELD JUMPS... Bond yields are spiking higher again today following dovish remarks from Jerome Powell. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield jumping 7 basis points to 1.54% and putting in on track for the highest close in more than a year. As a result, stocks are coming... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 FALLS BACK BELOW 50-DAY LINE... Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust losing -2.8% today and falling further below its 50-day moving average. Technology was the day's weakest sector along with consumer discretionary stocks. Eight of the eleven market sectors ended lower. More cyclical parts... READ MORE
Technology, as reflected in the tech-dominated NASDAQ Composite, peaked as a group in 2000 and sank in popularity for the next 3 years. Since then, as shown by the relative graph in Chart 1, it has recaptured all of that lost ground. Now, its long-term KST may have started to... READ MORE
GOLD SPDR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...With all the talk about rising inflation and rising commodity prices, it may seem strange to see the gold market still in a downtrend. But it is. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) falling to the lowest level since last... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD REACHES 1.50%... The 10-Year Treasury yield is spiking above 1.50% today for the first time in a year. The size and speed of the yield advance is putting downside pressure on stocks, and technology stocks in particular. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust trading below... READ MORE
ROTATION FROM GROWTH TO VALUE... One of the side-effects of rising bond yields has been a rotation out of technology-dominated growth shares into more cyclical value shares. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 Growth iShares (IVW) pulling back over the last week and trying to stay above its... READ MORE
Many confidence relationships I follow have been confined to multi-year trading ranges, as investors have consistently swung between optimism and fear. The latest data show that many have rallied sharply and reached the upper region of this rangebound activity. That either means it's time to regroup and launch... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS HIT NEW RECORD...While looking through today's sector charts, I was struck by the differing performance between transportation stocks and utilities. And that difference should carry good news for stocks in general. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average rising into record territory today. It&... READ MORE
POTENTIAL BOND YIELD RESISTANCE...The recent upmove in bond yields is attracting the attention of bond and stock holders. It's obviously negative for bond prices. But it could lead to some selling of stocks if bond yields were to climb too far too fast. So let's... READ MORE
FINANCIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD...Energy and financials are the day's two strongest sectors. Freezing temperatures across the U.S. are pushing energy prices higher today and energy stocks along with them. Financials are also having a strong day courtesy of another jump in Treasury bond yields. Chart... READ MORE
A few weeks ago I wrote an article entitled "Only a Fool Tries to Call a Correction in a Bull Market, So Here Goes!" Okay, so we did get a 4% drop in the Dow over a seven day period, but hardly anything worth worrying about. It reiterated... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR YIELD EXTENDS UPTREND... The uptrend in bond yields is continuing. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield touching a new recovery high in today's trading. That puts the TNX at the highest level since last March. The horizontal line in Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
CRB INDEX BREAKS TRENDLINE RESISTANCE... The current rally in commodity markets is attracting a lot of attention. Not just because commodities represent an asset class that's been attracting a lot of money over the last year. But also because of their intermarket implications. Stronger commodity markets are usually... READ MORE
They say that a rising tide lifts all boats, and so it is with freely traded markets. In the boating world, you can spot a rising tide with a steadily rising boat, but, with markets, the simplest approach is to observe a series of rising peaks and troughs. However, there... READ MORE
ENERGY SPDR NEARS TEST OF JUNE HIGH...Energy stocks continue to show both absolute and relative strength. They're leading the market higher today, and have been the market's strongest sector over the last three months. And they're approaching an important test. The daily bars... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD... Stocks are ending the week on a firm note with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading in record territory. The Dow isn't far behind. Small cap stocks, however, continue to lead the market higher. The daily bars in Chart 1... READ MORE
BITCOIN BOUNCES OFF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE... A couple of recent messages took a look at Bitcoin as it underwent a downside correction. We'll take another look today. The main message is that it's starting to look stronger. Chart 1 shows Bitcoin in what looks like a... READ MORE
The business cycle approximates 41-months between the low points of slowdowns or recessions. For the record, a slowdown develops when the growth path of the economy declines, but not sufficiently to result in an actual recession, when economic momentum goes negative. The important point to bear in mind is that... READ MORE
GAMESTOP AND AMC GAP SHARPLY LOWER... The recent short-squeeze mania may have finally run its course. Charts 1 and 2 show GameStop And AMC gapping sharply lower today. Other stocks caught up in the short squeeze are trading sharply lower as well. To the extent that last week's... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER ... Technology stocks are the strongest sector in a strong market day. The Technology SPDR (XLK) is trading nearly 3% higher today. The biggest tech stocks are also having a strong day. Chart 1 shows Apple gaining nearly 2% while keeping its uptrend intact. Chart 2... READ MORE
STOCKS TURN MORE DEFENSIVE...With stocks under pressure this week, it makes sense to see its eleven market sectors taking a more defensive turn as well. Chart 1 ranks the eleven market sectors from the strongest at the top to the weakest on the bottom. The first thing to notice... READ MORE
STOCKS TEST MOVING AVERAGE LINES... Stock indexes remain under pressure again today and are pressuring moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early November. It may be headed for a test of a potential support line drawn... READ MORE
The Fed has pledged to keep short-term rates around zero for an extended period. That's certainly in their power, and Chart 1, which features the 3-month Libor, indicates no sign of life. There is also quite a distance between the latest plot and its 12-month MA. At this... READ MORE
DAILY MACD LINES SHOW NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... Stocks are undergoing some profit-taking today in a market that looks stretched on the upside. One of the factors that concerns me is the relatively weak performance by daily MACD lines. Chart 1 overlays the MACD lines on a daily chart of the S&... READ MORE
BITCOIN RETESTS JANUARY LOW... Bitcoin remains in a downside correction that started earlier in January. And it's testing some important support levels. The daily bars in Chart 1 show bitcoin testing a couple of support levels formed earlier in the month (horizontal lines). It's also nearing... READ MORE
BIT TECHS ARE DOING BETTER... The largest technology stocks have been trading sideways over the past few months while the rest of the market has been rallying. The last two days, however, are showing money starting to flow back into some of the biggest tech stocks. Chart 1 shows Apple... READ MORE
Last week, I recorded a 40-minute presentation with my friend Bruce Fraser on the 2021 outlook. It's currently being featured on StockCharts TVand calls for a significant extension to the bull market. We present a number of long-term charts featuring several indicators whose bullish signals have consistently been... READ MORE
ECONOMICALLY-SENSTIVE GROUPS HAVE BEEN MARKET LEADERS...The last three months have seen rising stock prices. What's especially encouraging is which sectors have led the market higher. Chart 1 plots the sector performance over those three months. The top five sectors have been energy, financials, materials, industrials, and consumer... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS HIT NEW RECORD... It's usually a good sign to see more economically-sensitive groups hitting new highs, while more defensive groups are lagging behind. Two examples of that are seen by comparing the transportation stocks and utilities. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports hitting a new record again... READ MORE
GRAIN MARKETS ARE IN NEW UPTRENDS... Higher commodity markets are starting to attract more attention because of the potential for higher inflation. Past messages have written about new uptrends in energy markets or industrial commodities like copper. Some of the biggest gains, however, are being seen in agricultural markets, and... READ MORE
Back in early November, I wrote an article entitled,Confidence is Breaking Out all Over, Which is Bullish for Stocks/Commodities and Bond Yields, where I examined several intermarket relationships that monitor confidence. Since then, all three markets have rallied, but a further review of some of these relationships presents... READ MORE
ENERGY ETFS CONTINUE CLIMBING... Energy stocks continue to show new market leadership. That leadership is reflected in two energy ETFs that may be nearing some upside breakouts, and one having already achieved one. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) trading at the highest level in more than six... READ MORE
BITCOIN CORRECTS VERY OVERBOUGHT CONDITION...The rally in bitcoin over the past year has been nothing short of spectacular. The daily bars in Chart 1 show how big that gain has been. Prices have gone from $4000 in the spring to $40000 last week. It also doubled in price from... READ MORE
Prices are determined by the attitude of market participants to the emerging fundamentals. Fortunately for us technicians, these attitudes move in trends, and once a trend gets underway it tends to perpetuate. Provided it is not overstretched, we can reasonably assume that that trend will continue. It's in... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 1%... Bond yields and stocks are climbing sharply today on hopes for more stimulus spending. And the market is being led higher by more economically-sensitive stocks like financials, materials, energy, and industrials. Financials in particular are getting big boost from rising bond yields. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE