SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM INDICATORS START TO WEAKEN... Stocks are still in the midst of a strong run that started in early November. But they're starting to look stretched over the short run; and may be vulnerable to some profit-taking. The two upper boxes in Chart 1 show the RSI... READ MORE
Two Stock Market Relationships That Have Just Turned Positive A few weeks ago, I wrote about some intermarket relationships pointing in the direction of higher stock prices. Picking through my StockCharts chart lists earlier in the week, I noticed a couple more that have only just moved into the bullish... READ MORE
GOLD SPDR TRIES TO HOLD 200-DAY LINE...Gold has been in a downside correction since the start of August. And it's now undergoing an important test. Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) trading back above their 200-day moving average after slipping below it near the end... READ MORE
In this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry explores the famous "Santa Claus Rally" and how it applies in 2020. The rally is coming earlier than you might expect in the season for toy, candy, jewelry, and other related stocks. So when does/did the... READ MORE
CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH...With the U.S. dollar falling to the lowest level in more than two years, foreign currencies are rising. One of them is the Canadian Dollar. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the $CDW rising to the highest level in two years. Since Canada... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITY PRICES...One of the side-effects of a falling dollar is usually rising commodity prices. That's partly because global commodities are priced in dollars. And our first chart reflects their inverse relationship. Chart 1 shows the Invesco DB Commodity Index (DBC) in a rising trend... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS 1%... Treasury bond yields continue to climb and are hitting new recovery highs. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield trading rising 5 basis points today to .96%. It also touched the highest level since March. That's obviously bad for Treasury bond prices which... READ MORE
Since its intraday high (set in August), the price of the SPDR Gold Trust, the GLD, has fallen close to 15%. That's not enough to qualify for a bear market under the media's arbitrary and totally useless 20% standard. However, it is enough for bulls like... READ MORE
AIRLINE ETF CLEARS JUNE HIGH... Airline stocks continue to gain more altitude and show stronger chart patterns. Chart 1 shows the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) surging to the highest level since the spring. The upper box shows its relative strength ratio rising to the highest level since June. A... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD...With the Dow and S&P 500 reaching new records, the tech-dominated Nasdaq market has been lagging behind. Not anymore. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust trading in record territory today. It's also the strongest of the major U.S. stock... READ MORE
Last September, I pointed out herethat the ratio between the S&P Composite and the MSCI World Stock ETF (SPY/ACWI) had reached a critical juncture and needed an immediate rally in order to avoid an important sell signal. That point has been flagged with the green arrow. As... READ MORE
DOLLAR DROPS TO TWO-YEAR LOW... The decline in the U.S. dollar continues. Chart 1 shows the Invesco US Dollar Index (UUP) dropping to the lowest level in two years. Previous messages have described some of the intermarket side-effects of a weaker greenback. One of them is that it'... READ MORE
DOW REACHES 30K... Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials hitting 30,000 and setting a new record. The S&P 500 isn't far behind. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 in a coiling pattern which also favors higher prices. The Nasdaq is lagging behind but... READ MORE
ENERGY ETFS CLEAR THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES... Energy stocks are continuing to show new market leadership. They're getting help from rising oil prices. Last Thursday's message showed the Energy SPDR (XLE) testing its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows the XLE moving decisively above that long term... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES CONSOLIDATE...Major stock indexes continue to consolidate their November gains, and remain above recent support levels. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials pulling back over the last three days, but remaining above underlying support along their October peak and recent low near 29,000. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
* Russell 2K at a Record High * Some Small-Cap Sector ETFs Breaking as Well Russell 2K at a Record High Small-caps have been underperforming since early 2018, but, in the last few weeks, have begun to emerge as relative outperformers. We can see this from Chart 1, where the iShares Russell... READ MORE
MONDAY BREAKOUTS ARE STILL INTACT... Stocks are ending the week on a firm note; and are holding onto upside gap breakouts achieved earlier in the week. Stock indexes have spent the week consolidating their sharp gains on Monday and are remaining above some chart support levels. Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
Pfizer (PFE)'s announcement about a vaccine may have triggered a sharp rally on Monday, but its real effect was to boost confidence, which improved the status of a lot of different relationships that I follow, portending further gains for stocks and commodities down the road. Swings in sentiment... READ MORE
ROTATION INTO VALUE CONTINUES... Yesterday's positive vaccine news contributed to a rotation into economically-sensitive value stocks at the expense of technology driven growth stocks. That rotation was accompanied by a jump in bond yields which touched an eight-month high. Signs of that rotation can be seen again today.... READ MORE
POSITIVE VACCINE NEWS CAUSES STOCKS TO SOAR...News of a vaccine with a 90% success rate caused stocks to soar today with the Dow and S&P 500 setting new records. The Nasdaq and so-called "stay at home" stocks are lagging behind or losing ground. Today'... READ MORE
GLOBAL STOCKS HAD A STRONG WEEK... Stocks had one of the strongest weeks in months as election results appear to be leaning in the direction of a more divided government. That might reduce chances for higher taxes and more regulations. Major stock indexes ended the week within striking distance of... READ MORE
DOLLAR NEARS YEARLY LOW... The U.S. dollar continues to weaken against both developed and emerging market currencies. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) nearing a test of its yearly low. A drop below that level would put the dollar at the lowest level since early 2018.... READ MORE
GOLD ASSETS TURN UP... While global stocks are having another strong day, precious metals are starting to perk up as well. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) jumping today to the highest level in nearly two months. Gold has been in a downside correction since early August, but remains... READ MORE
They say that the Chinese economy has emerged from the pandemic quicker than the rest of the world. Recent action by Chinese ETFs certainly underscores such a possibility, as many have broken out from multi-week consolidation patterns. I last wrote about Chinese ETFs back in July,when we considered a... READ MORE
DROP IN BOND YIELDS CASTS DOUBT ON STIMULUS SPENDING...After rising over the last two months, bond yields fell sharply today. The 10-Year Treasury yield on Tuesday reached the highest level since early June on expectations for more stimulus spending and the resulting need to finance that spending by selling... READ MORE
STOCKS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG DAY... Major stock indexes are trading sharply higher as we await the results of the presidential election. Increased expectations for a divided government may be helping fuel today's strong stock reaction. The three charts below show the three major stock indexes rising above their... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES ARE HAVING A STRONG ELECTION DAY... Stocks are rallying for the second day in a row after finding support near their September lows. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing impressively off their 200-day moving average. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 also rallying for the... READ MORE
BIG TECH STOCKS WEAKEN... Four of the biggest tech stocks are weakening today after several of them reported decent earnings. And they're weighing on the rest of the market. Chart 1 shows Amazon.com (AMZN) falling to the lowest level in a month. Chart 2 shows Apple (AAPL)... READ MORE
This week's sell-off has been pretty scary. However, it has not yet ruptured the primary uptrend that began in March. In that respect, Chart 1 shows that the PPO for the S&P Composite, using 6- and 15-month EMAs as parameters, remains well above its equilibrium level.... READ MORE
DOW TESTS ITS SEPTEMBER LOW... Monday's message suggested that the breaking of 50-day averages increased the odds for a test of September lows. The Dow is already there. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials sitting right on their September low near 26,500. And not too far from... READ MORE
50-DAY LINES ARE BEING BROKEN... Stocks are under heavy selling pressure. The three charts below show three major stock indexes falling back below their 50-day moving averages. The recent rebound took stocks close to their highs formed in early September. With that rebound having failed, technical odds now suggest that... READ MORE
It's all about the election on this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams. Who is going to win? Does that matter market-wise? What is going to happen? Taking a look at polls, charts and historical precedent. Larry shows what a Trump or Biden victory means and... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS 200-DAY LINE... The rally in bond yields is continuing. Tuesday's message showed the 30-Year Treasury yield climbing above its 200-day average. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield heading for a test of its 200-day line after rising to the highest level in more... READ MORE
They say that Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. That arises because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy, from homes and factories to electronics and power generation. The... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS...Chart 1 shows the Invesco Dollar Index (UUP) tumbling today to the lowest level since early September. And it's losing ground against all of its major trading partners in Europe and Asia. The weaker dollar has a number of intermarket implications. One of them is... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS ARE CLIMBING AGAIN... After a pullback last week, bond yields are climbing again. Chart 1 shows the 30-Year Treasury ¥ield climbing 5 basis points today to 1.60%. And it's back above its 200-day moving average. The 10-Year Treasury yield is up as well, and is... READ MORE
HEALTH CARE SPDR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LEADERSHIP... Healthcare stocks are leading the market higher for a change. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Health Care SPDR (XLV) nearing a test of its recent highs after finding support near its 50-day moving average. The solid line overlaid... READ MORE
% OF STOCKS ABOVE MOVING AVERAGES GAIN... Various measures of market breadth have improved over the last month. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average rising from an oversold low of 25% during September to 78% this week. That's a... READ MORE
20+ YEAR TREASURY ISHARES TEST 200-DAY AVERAGE... The recent rise in Treasury bond yields has pushed bond prices lower. And especially bonds with longer maturities. Chart 1 shows the 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) falling to the lowest level since June. More importantly, the TLT is bouncing today after... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the long-term KST for the ratio between stocks and bonds was close to a buy signal, and that all such signals in the last 30-years had been followed by substantial advances in equity prices (Chart 1). We still don't have a signal... READ MORE