POSITIVE VACCINE NEWS CAUSES STOCKS TO SOAR...News of a vaccine with a 90% success rate caused stocks to soar today with the Dow and S&P 500 setting new records. The Nasdaq and so-called "stay at home" stocks are lagging behind or losing ground. Today'... READ MORE
GLOBAL STOCKS HAD A STRONG WEEK... Stocks had one of the strongest weeks in months as election results appear to be leaning in the direction of a more divided government. That might reduce chances for higher taxes and more regulations. Major stock indexes ended the week within striking distance of... READ MORE
DOLLAR NEARS YEARLY LOW... The U.S. dollar continues to weaken against both developed and emerging market currencies. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) nearing a test of its yearly low. A drop below that level would put the dollar at the lowest level since early 2018.... READ MORE
GOLD ASSETS TURN UP... While global stocks are having another strong day, precious metals are starting to perk up as well. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) jumping today to the highest level in nearly two months. Gold has been in a downside correction since early August, but remains... READ MORE
They say that the Chinese economy has emerged from the pandemic quicker than the rest of the world. Recent action by Chinese ETFs certainly underscores such a possibility, as many have broken out from multi-week consolidation patterns. I last wrote about Chinese ETFs back in July,when we considered a... READ MORE
DROP IN BOND YIELDS CASTS DOUBT ON STIMULUS SPENDING...After rising over the last two months, bond yields fell sharply today. The 10-Year Treasury yield on Tuesday reached the highest level since early June on expectations for more stimulus spending and the resulting need to finance that spending by selling... READ MORE
STOCKS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG DAY... Major stock indexes are trading sharply higher as we await the results of the presidential election. Increased expectations for a divided government may be helping fuel today's strong stock reaction. The three charts below show the three major stock indexes rising above their... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES ARE HAVING A STRONG ELECTION DAY... Stocks are rallying for the second day in a row after finding support near their September lows. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing impressively off their 200-day moving average. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 also rallying for the... READ MORE
BIG TECH STOCKS WEAKEN... Four of the biggest tech stocks are weakening today after several of them reported decent earnings. And they're weighing on the rest of the market. Chart 1 shows Amazon.com (AMZN) falling to the lowest level in a month. Chart 2 shows Apple (AAPL)... READ MORE
This week's sell-off has been pretty scary. However, it has not yet ruptured the primary uptrend that began in March. In that respect, Chart 1 shows that the PPO for the S&P Composite, using 6- and 15-month EMAs as parameters, remains well above its equilibrium level.... READ MORE
DOW TESTS ITS SEPTEMBER LOW... Monday's message suggested that the breaking of 50-day averages increased the odds for a test of September lows. The Dow is already there. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials sitting right on their September low near 26,500. And not too far from... READ MORE
50-DAY LINES ARE BEING BROKEN... Stocks are under heavy selling pressure. The three charts below show three major stock indexes falling back below their 50-day moving averages. The recent rebound took stocks close to their highs formed in early September. With that rebound having failed, technical odds now suggest that... READ MORE
It's all about the election on this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams. Who is going to win? Does that matter market-wise? What is going to happen? Taking a look at polls, charts and historical precedent. Larry shows what a Trump or Biden victory means and... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS 200-DAY LINE... The rally in bond yields is continuing. Tuesday's message showed the 30-Year Treasury yield climbing above its 200-day average. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield heading for a test of its 200-day line after rising to the highest level in more... READ MORE
They say that Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. That arises because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy, from homes and factories to electronics and power generation. The... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS...Chart 1 shows the Invesco Dollar Index (UUP) tumbling today to the lowest level since early September. And it's losing ground against all of its major trading partners in Europe and Asia. The weaker dollar has a number of intermarket implications. One of them is... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS ARE CLIMBING AGAIN... After a pullback last week, bond yields are climbing again. Chart 1 shows the 30-Year Treasury ¥ield climbing 5 basis points today to 1.60%. And it's back above its 200-day moving average. The 10-Year Treasury yield is up as well, and is... READ MORE
HEALTH CARE SPDR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LEADERSHIP... Healthcare stocks are leading the market higher for a change. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Health Care SPDR (XLV) nearing a test of its recent highs after finding support near its 50-day moving average. The solid line overlaid... READ MORE
% OF STOCKS ABOVE MOVING AVERAGES GAIN... Various measures of market breadth have improved over the last month. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average rising from an oversold low of 25% during September to 78% this week. That's a... READ MORE
20+ YEAR TREASURY ISHARES TEST 200-DAY AVERAGE... The recent rise in Treasury bond yields has pushed bond prices lower. And especially bonds with longer maturities. Chart 1 shows the 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) falling to the lowest level since June. More importantly, the TLT is bouncing today after... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the long-term KST for the ratio between stocks and bonds was close to a buy signal, and that all such signals in the last 30-years had been followed by substantial advances in equity prices (Chart 1). We still don't have a signal... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX FALLS BELOW 50-DAY LINE...The dollar is under selling pressure. Part of the reason why may be rising stock prices. The dollar has been moving inversely to stocks over past few months (more on that shortly). It rallied during September when stocks were selling off. And has weakened... READ MORE
S&P VALUE IS GAINING GROUND... Value stocks are continuing to fuel much of the stock market's recent gains. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 Value iShares (IVE) rising this week to the highest level in a month. And it's been rising faster... READ MORE
Sometimes, it's a good idea to approach likely market action not so much from an analysis of the market itself, but substituting intermarket or interasset relationships to accomplish the same objective. It is a fact that each business cycle goes through a set series of chronological sequences. We... READ MORE
DOW TRANPORTS EXCEED 2018 HIGH... Transportation stocks are once again trying for a new record. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Transports trying to close decisively above their 2018 high. The transports are being led higher today by airlines and delivery stocks. But rails and trucking stocks... READ MORE
STOCKS SELL OFF IN AFTERNOON TRADING... Stocks fell this afternoon after a presidential tweet pushed stimulus talks until after the November election. The three charts below show major stock indexes reversing lower from chart resistance formed a couple of weeks ago. Ten of eleven sectors also ended the day in... READ MORE
FINANCIAL SPDR TRIES TO CLEAR 200-DAY LINE... Higher bond yields and a steeper yield curve usually benefit financial stocks and banks in particular. Which helps explain why financials are starting to attract new buying. Chart 1 shows the Financial SPDR (XLF) trading above its 200-day moving average today for the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS TOUCH FOUR-MONTH HIGH... Treasury bond yields continue their rise that started a week ago. And they're overcoming some resistance levels. Chart 1 shows the 30-Year Treasury Yield rising above its late August high to reach the highest level since June. It's also testing its... READ MORE
STOCKS END VOLATILE FRIDAY LOWER... Stocks opened sharply lower on Friday on news that President Trump and the First Lady had tested positive for the coronavirus. Then news of some possible fiscal stimulus helped them make back some of their earlier losses. By the end of the day, however, all... READ MORE
* Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish * Monthly-Based Gold Model is a Long Way from a Sell Signal * Inflation-Adjusted Gold at Mega Resistance * When Will the Correction Have Run its Course? Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish Long-term Charts show that gold is in a firm uptrend. Take Chart... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry is back to give a follow-up on his last special regarding Chinese stocks, with an aside for Korea. He then discusses the "Uncle Sam" index and his exclusive ACP Plug-In indicators, followed by an overview of who... READ MORE
STOCKS INDEXES GAIN MORE GROUND... Stocks are building on their earlier gains from Monday and are trading above their 50-day lines as shown on the three following charts. Chart 1 shows that the next test of overhead resistance for the Dow Industrials could come at at 28,400 which was... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES REGAIN THEIR 50-DAY LINES... Global stocks are starting the week on a strong note. The three major stock indexes shown below are all trading above their 50-day moving average lines. That strengthens their short-term trend and puts them in position to regain some ground lost during the month... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 TRY TO STABILIZE NEAR MOVING AVERAGE LINES... A lot more attention is being paid to moving average lines this month because they help determine where potential support and resistance levels may lie. Two that have been mentioned quite a bit lately are the 50-... READ MORE
RISING DOLLAR PUSHES PRECIOUS METALS LOWER... With global stocks on the defensive over the last week, some money has flowed into the relative safety of the U.S. dollar. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Dollar Index (UUP) climbing to the highest level in two months. As usually happens when the... READ MORE
For many years, the S&P Composite (SPY) has outperformed the MSCI World Stock ETF (ACWI). The benefit of the doubt continues to move in favor of the US, but this relationship has reached a crucial juncture point and needs to bounce; otherwise, some serious technical damage will transpire.... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 HEADING TOWARD 200-DAY LINES... Stocks are selling off all over the world today. With 50-day moving averages having already been broken, 200-day averages are now in play. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials approaching their 200-day line (red arrow) which isn't that... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 TURNS DOWN... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the QQQ breaking last week's short-term support and falling further below its 50-day moving average today. The two upper boxes in Chart 1 also show its RSI and MACD lines continuing to decline. That suggests more selling... READ MORE
From time to time, I like to review the various sectors to see which ones are in a positive or negative relative trend and which might be in a position to change. To do this, I use what I call my Nirvana Template or, in StockCharts-speak, Nirvana Chart Style. It... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES RETEST LAST WEEK'S LOW... Stocks are under pressure and are retesting lows formed late last week. And are putting 50-day moving averages in jeopardy on daily charts. The tech-driven Nasdaq is leading today's retreat. The hourly bars in Chart 1 show the Invesco... READ MORE