* Technology About to Pause? * New Blood is Starting to Emerge * Two Fence Sitters Technology About to Pause? The undisputed king of sectors so far this year has been technology. This week's price action from the tech dominated NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ), though, suggests that this leadership may be rotating... READ MORE
S&P 500 TESTS JUNE HIGH... Stocks gained more ground today with ten of eleven sectors in the black. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the day just below its early June intra-day high at 3233. Also encouraging was better participation by value stocks which have... READ MORE
CATERPILLAR AND DEERE HAVE A STRONG DAY...With technology stocks underperforming for the second day in a row, money flowed into cheaper parts of the market today. All eleven sectors closed higher with energy, materials, industrials and healthcare in the lead. Energy is benefiting from crude oil prices over $40,... READ MORE
BUYING HEALTHCARE AGAIN... After taking a leadership role during March and April, healthcare stocks have essentially moved sideways over the last couple of months while the rest of the market has gained ground. The sector's recent underperformance can be seen by the falling XLV/SPX relative strength ratio... READ MORE
LONG-TERM TREND APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO GOLD OVER STOCKS... Recent messages showing the ongoing bull market in gold (and its miners) have stressed that a weaker dollar and historically low global interest rates have pushed the price of gold to the highest level in nearly nine years. Yesterday'... READ MORE
GOLD VERSUS THE DOLLAR... The generally inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the best known and reliable intermarket relationships. Part of the reason is that gold is traded in U.S. dollars. Another part is due to the fact that gold is often preferred... READ MORE
GOLD SPDR REACHES ANOTHER EIGHT-YEAR HIGH...Gold prices are on the rise again. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) rising to the highest level since 2012. The August gold contract has risen to $1820 and appears headed toward its 2011 peak at $1923. Gold... READ MORE
* Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? * Silver Shares Starting to Perk Up * Silver Bottoming Against Gold? Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? Gold has been in a strong bull market recently, which has eclipsed the performance of the gray metal.... READ MORE
CHINESE STOCKS AND COPPER HAVE BEEN RISING TOGETHER...This morning's message showed the Shanghai Stock Index surging to the highest level in two years; and mentioned that was also good for copper prices. This message elaborates a bit more on the relationship between the two. The red bars... READ MORE
CHINESE STOCK SOAR... A huge rally in China is leading a rally in stock markets around the world. The red arrow in Chart 1 shows the Shanghai Composite Index surging 5.7% to close at the highest level in more than two years. The SSEC close at 3332 also puts... READ MORE
DOW AND SPX REMAIN IN TRADING RANGES...Despite gaining ground this past week, little has changed for the market's major stock indexes. Continued buying of technology growth stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to a new record (Chart 1). The rest of the market, however, continued to lag behind.... READ MORE
* Shanghai Composite Ruptures Mega Trendline * Chinese ETFs Breaking as Well * Interesting Chinese Sector ETFs Back in March, I wrote about the Chinese stock market, as it had started to improve in terms of relative action against the S&P. Since then, Chinese equities have moved higher with no net... READ MORE
US DOLLAR HAD WEAK SECOND QUARTER... After surging during March (as stock prices plunged), the U.S. Dollar peaked in late March and moved lower during the second quarter. Rising stock prices during that quarter reduced the appeal of the dollar as a haven currency. Rising foreign currencies also reflected... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS NEAR TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE...Transportation stocks are off to a strong start this morning. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports rising to a two-week high after bouncing off their 50-day moving average last week. They may be headed for a test of their 200-day moving average. Tranportation... READ MORE
DOW AND SPX HOLD CHART SUPPORT... Stocks are off to a strong start for the week. And are holding some important support levels. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing off potential chart support at its 50-day average (blue line) and its early June intra-day low at 24,800. It&... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES WEAKEN... Major stock indexes lost ground this week on a disturbing rise in coronavirus cases which could undermine the U.S. economy. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite pulling back from a record high set on Tuesday. Its 14-day RSI line in the upper box shows a... READ MORE
* Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective * Gold vs. the Dollar * Gold vs. Gold Shares * Short-Term Gold Position * Conclusion Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective Gold broke out to a new recovery high on Tuesday and looks set to gain more ground, all with a favorable background from the long-term trend. Chart 1... READ MORE
* The Decennial Cycle and Years Ending in a "0" * 1980 and 2020 Both Experienced Recessions * Further Out, Things are More Problematic * China Technology Breaks to the Upside The simple answer to the question posed in the title is "No!". However, there are a number of interesting... READ MORE
* Market Gets a New Lease on Life * Ten-Day Breadth Ratio Hits Bullish Extreme * S&P Stocks Above 50-day MA Also Hit a Bullish Extreme * Can Small-Caps Extend their Sharp Rally? Usually, when a market rallies sharply and experiences an overbought condition, the probabilities favor corrective activity of some kind.... READ MORE
Part-Time Employees for Economic Reasons is a leading indicator of the labor market. That's because employers are more inclined to hire and fire temporary workers than permanent ones, where labor laws, contracts, pensions and other impediments get in the way. This indicator has been consistently useful in identifying... READ MORE
* The Gold/CRB Ratio as a Commodity Indicator * Close Correlation between Canadian/Australian Dollars and Commodities * The Stock Market Votes for Commodities * Short-Term Breakout Underway? The Gold/CRB Ratio as a Commodity Indicator A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article on commodities suggesting that conditions were falling into... READ MORE
* March Was a Really Strong Bottom * NASDAQ Closes a Gap * S&P Fails at its 200-Day MA * Conclusion March Was a Really Strong Bottom Tuesday's action looks bullish on the surface, but may signal the end of the rally. I emphasized the word "may" not... READ MORE
* Gold Has Done its Work as a Leading Commodity Indicator * The Stock Market is Forecasting Higher Commodity Prices * Commodities on the Verge of a Breakout * Oil VIX Signals a Major Bottom in Oil Prices Three weeks ago, I raised the question as to whether commodities had begun to embark on... READ MORE
APPAREL RETAILERS LEAD XLY HIGHER... Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) trading at the highest level in three months and north of its 200-day average. The XLY/SPX relative strength ratio in the upper box is also rising. Apparel retailers are leading the XLY higher. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
STOCKS CONTINUE RALLY MODE... Stock prices are trading sharply higher again today. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ) trading at a three month high. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 nearing a test of its 200-day moving average. Chart 3 shows the Dow Industrials nearing a... READ MORE
SEMIS LEAD TECH SPDR HIGHER... Technology is the day's strongest sector. Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) rising today to the highest level in nearly three months. It's being led higher by semiconductors . Chart 2 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) moving above its... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry walks viewers through what he considers to be the best indicators, including technical and fundamental ones alike. Larry discusses their limitations and explains why they have them, then shows you the best ways that you can use them in... READ MORE
STOCKS SURGE ON VACCINE OPTIMISM... A report that a vaccine developed by Moderna is showing positive results helped push stocks sharply higher today. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 gapping higher and in position to test their recent highs. The SPX may also... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES STABILIZE NEAR SUPPORT... After a weak start this morning, major stock indexes are stabilizing near some short-term support levels. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials finding support at its 50-day moving average and its mid-April intraday low at 22900. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 holding... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the S&P Composite, despite the strong rally off the March low, had failed to touch an overbought condition. That presented a problem, since a security that is unable to reach an overstretched reading is usually suffering from some kind of a bear... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 WEAKEN... Stock prices are continuing the pullback that began yesterday afternoon. And some short-term support levels may soon be tested. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials slipping below their 20-day average (green line) and in position to test their early May low at 23400.... READ MORE
STOCKS RALLY ON BAD ECONOMIC NEWS... Last weekend's message suggested that the spring rally in stocks may have peaked. Judging from this week's strong price action, that doesn't appear to be the case. Stock prices have shown remarkable resilience in the face of very... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR NEARS 200-DAY LINE... Yesterday's message showed the Communication Services SPDR (XLC) trying to clear its 200-day moving average which it has done. The next in line may be consumer cyclicals. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) nearing a test of its red line.... READ MORE
Sixty-Five Year Record of Success One of my favorite long-term indicators involves the 12-month ROC of the S&P Composite falling below the -5% level and subsequently rallying back above zero. This approach is shown in Chart 1, which illustrates the period from 1995 through April 30 of this... READ MORE
XLC CONTINUES TO TEST 200-DAY LINE... Tuesday's message showed the Communication Services SPDR (XLC) challenging its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows that test still in progress. Its relative strength line in the lower box has also been rising. Internet stocks are the main driver behind recent XLC... READ MORE
STOCKS OPEN ON A STRONG NOTE... Stock prices opened much higher this morning. And all three major stock indexes are bouncing off some moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing off their 20- and 50-day moving averages which is usually their first line of support. Chart 2... READ MORE
STOCK RALLY MAY HAVE PEAKED... A number of short-term technical indicators suggest that the spring rebound in stocks may have peaked this past week. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 selling off on Thursday and Friday after touching its 62% Fibonnaci retracement line (purple... READ MORE
AMAZON SELLOFF HURTS CONSUMER CYCLICALS... Stocks in general are undergoing some profit-taking today. And consumer cyclicals are one of the day's weakest groups. A big reason for that is today's big drop in Amazon.com (AMZN). Chart 1 shows that influential stock dropping -7% today on... READ MORE
Commodities have been badly beaten up in the last few months, but no market goes down for ever, so it's natural to ask the question of whether it's time for an upside reversal. The evidence for that is not conclusive yet, but there are some very... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE...A positive report by Gilead Sciences on its Covid-19 drug helped stocks get off to a strong start today. The biotech stock is up 3% this morning on that report. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 gaining more than... READ MORE