COMMODITY RALLY CONTINUES... Previous messages have pointed out that a two-year low in the U.S. Dollar Index was helping to lift commodity prices. And that's still the case. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Commodity Index (DBC) moving further above its 200-day moving average. Most of... READ MORE
GOLD SPDR HOLDS SUPPORT... My Wednesday message showed precious metals and their miners pulling back to underlying support levels within major uptrends. That's still the case. My message from yesterday described profit-taking in those same precious metals following an upside spike in bond yields after the head... READ MORE
* Strong Bull Market Indications * Short-Term Vulnerability? Strong Bull Market Indications We are all aware of the Shakespearian saying "Beware of the Ides of March," which didn't go so well for Julius Caesar. In market folklore, October is the season for crashes and September is the... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES TWO-MONTH HIGH...Bond yields are climbing today. That may be a reaction to Mr. Powell's speech suggesting that the Fed was relaxing its attitude toward the possibility of rising inflation. Treasury bonds are being sold as a result which is boosting bond... READ MORE
GOLD ETF AND ITS MINERS TEST UNDERLYING SUPPORT... Precious metals have spend most of August pulling back from their recent strong advances which has enabled them to work off some short-term overbought conditions. And they're testing underlying support levels. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) testing... READ MORE
COMMUNICATION SERVICES LEAD MARKET HIGHER... Chart 1 shows the Communication Services SPDR (XLC) climbing nearly 2% today to a new record. It's relative strength line in the upper box is breaking out as well. It's two biggest percentage gainers are Netflix and Facebook. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
GAP AND GENERAL MOTORS HELP LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER... My weekend message showed the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) setting new records. It's hitting another one today led higher by cruise lines, clothing, travel & tourism, gambling, and apparel retailers. Two stocks in particular show up on today's... READ MORE
S&P 500 HITS NEW RECORD ON FRIDAY... The S&P 500 hit a record close on Tuesday and on Friday exceeded its February intra-day peak at 3393 to confirm a new all-time high as shown by the weekly bars in Chart 1. The Nasdaq hit... READ MORE
S&P 500 STILL HASN'T CLEARED FEBRUARY INTRA-DAY HIGH... The news media has been quick to declare a new record high in the S&P 500. However, we may not be there just yet. The SPX did hit a new closing high. The February intra-... READ MORE
* The Bear Market Case * Time for a Counter-Cyclical Rally? The Bear Market Case By most methods and approaches, the Dollar Index is in a bear market. Take Chart 1, for instance, which compares the Index to its long-term KST. The pink-shaded areas tell us when it is... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX HITS ANOTHER LOW... The greenback continues its decline to the lowest level in nearly two years. Chart 1 shows the Invesco US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) falling to another multi-year low today. And it's falling against all of its major trading partners. As is normally... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS TESTING ITS FEBRUARY HIGH... The most important test going on at the moment is the S&P 500 challenging its February high. Its highest intra-day value shown in Chart 1 is 3393.52. The SPX closing high for February was 3386.15. Although... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKET ETFS ALSO BENEFIT FROM WEAKER DOLLAR... My earlier message today made the point that a weaker dollar is benefiting foreign stock ETFs that are quoted in dollars. The message showed the rising euro benefiting eurozone ETFs with Germany on the verge of a bullish breakout. The same principle... READ MORE
EAFE ISHARES REACH SIX-MONTH HIGH... I wrote a message three weeks ago on Wednesday, July 22 to the effect that a weaker U.S. dollar was boosting foreign stocks ETFs that are quoted in dollars. When American investors buy foreign stocks, they're also indirectly buying local currencies.... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the basic trend for bond yields around the world is still negative, as all series are in a clear-cut downtrend. The only exception is Japan, where the secular down trendline was violated earlier in the year. So far, though, the yield has only managed a... READ MORE
GLOBAL YIELDS REBOUND... Bond yields are rebounding today. That may be partially due to an uptick in producer price inflation. Or the fact that global stocks are also rebounding which is driving some money out of bonds and into stocks. Global yields are rebounding along with stocks. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
DOW EXCEEDS JUNE HIGH... The Dow Industrials continue to gain ground on the rest of the stock market. And is the strongest of the three major stock indexes today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading above their June intra-day peak at 27,600. The Dow is the last... READ MORE
ALCOA CLEARS 200-DAY LINE...CENTURY ALUMINUM LEADS... Material stocks continue to act as market leaders. Strong gold miners are a big part of that. So are copper miners. Last Wednesday' message showed the Dow Jones Nonferrous Metals Index scoring a bullish breakout along with Freeport McMoran (FCX); and... READ MORE
MODEST ROTATION TAKES PLACE... Big tech has been the main story in the market since the start of the pandemic with most of the rest of the market largely left behind. Over the past couple of weeks, however, we've started to see some money moving into weaker parts... READ MORE
I have written about commodities several times in the last four months or so as evidence of a major reversal had begun to appear. Now, more indicators are starting to turn. Near-term, things look overdone, but if this is really is a bull market, that will not matter, as... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES AND DOW TRANSPORTS PASS JUNE HIGH...DOW GAINS...The rally in stocks continues to broaden out. Market groups that had lagged behind the stock recovery are starting to catch up. Small caps and transports are two examples. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) trading above... READ MORE
COPPER MINERS LEAD MATERIALS HIGHER... A falling dollar has been one of the big factors pushing commodity prices higher and stocks tied to them. Today's drop in the greenback to another two-year low is continuing the flow of money into commodity assets. Several messages over the last... READ MORE
TECHS AND NASDAQ CONTINUE TO LEAD THE WAY... Big techology stocks are leading the market higher today again. Chart 1 show the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new high as did the Technology SPDR (XLK). Its biggest percentage gainers were Microsoft and a number of chip stocks. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
THREE BIG TECHS LEAD FRIDAY REBOUND... Going into Thursday evening, most of the TV stock market commentary centered around the big tech stocks that were announcing quarterly earnings after the close. The consensus seemed to be that the big tech stocks had already seen huge gains for the year, and... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry goes out on a limb to explain why he thinks stocks in China are ready for significant decline. You'll get a sneak peek of his unique indicators coming soon to StockChartsACP, as Larry demonstrates their functions and... READ MORE
* Rising Commodity Momentum is Bullish for Stocks and the Economy * Long-Term Technicals Look Promising for Copper Swings in commodity prices are both a market and an economic indicator. There are certainly exceptions, but when the economy is in a recovery phase, commodity prices generally rise. During the early phase... READ MORE
POINT & FIGURE CHARTS SHOW TRANSPORTATION BREAKOUTS...My morning message wrote about four transportation stocks that were achieving bullish breakouts. A glitch in the system, however, prevented me from showing their usual bar charts. So I've improvised a bit to bring their point & figure versions. Unlike bar... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS MOVE FURTHER ABOVE 200-DAY LINE... Transportation stocks are one of today's strongest groups. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports gaining 2% this morning and moving further above their 200-day moving average which is now acting as a line of support (see red arrow). My... READ MORE
REBOUND IN NASDAQ 100 STEADIES MARKET... Stocks are opening the week on a firmer note. A rebound in tech stocks is one of the reasons why. Last Thursday's high-volume selloff in tech stocks caused some nervous profit-taking as the week ended. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 TESTS 20-DAY LINE... A selloff in the biggest tech stocks is putting downside pressure on stocks today; and is helping make the Nasdaq 100 the day's biggest percentage loser. And it looks technically vulnerable to a deeper pullback. The daily bars in Chart 1 show... READ MORE
EURO RALLIES TO TWO-YEAR HIGH... Yesterday's message showed the euro testing its March high. Chart 2 shows the eurozone currency trading above that level in today's trading. That puts the euro at the highest level in nearly two years. The rising euro is putting more... READ MORE
* The US versus the Rest of the World * Europe * Asia The US versus the Rest of the World Chart 1 shows that the up trend favoring the S&P Composite against the Vanguard All-World Ex-US ETF (the VEU) is intact. That's because the latest plot... READ MORE
RISING EURO PUSHES DOLLAR LOWER...Chart 1 show the Invesco Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) declining today to the lowest level since March. The dollar surged during the first quarter in a flight to safety as stock prices plunged. Then fell from late March to July as stocks recovered. And... READ MORE
SILVER ISHARES HIT FOUR-YEAR HIGH... Precious metals (and their mining ETFs) are rising again today with all of them hitting multi-year highs. As has been the case recently, however, silver (and its miners) are actually rising faster than gold (and its miners). The black daily bars in Chart... READ MORE
RAILS AND TRUCKERS LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER... Wednesday's message showed the Dow Transports closing above their 200-day line for the first time since early June. Chart 1 shows them continuing to build on that upturn. Their relative strength ratio in the upper box has turned up as well,... READ MORE
* Technology About to Pause? * New Blood is Starting to Emerge * Two Fence Sitters Technology About to Pause? The undisputed king of sectors so far this year has been technology. This week's price action from the tech dominated NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ), though, suggests that this leadership may be rotating... READ MORE
S&P 500 TESTS JUNE HIGH... Stocks gained more ground today with ten of eleven sectors in the black. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the day just below its early June intra-day high at 3233. Also encouraging was better participation by value stocks which... READ MORE
CATERPILLAR AND DEERE HAVE A STRONG DAY...With technology stocks underperforming for the second day in a row, money flowed into cheaper parts of the market today. All eleven sectors closed higher with energy, materials, industrials and healthcare in the lead. Energy is benefiting from crude oil prices over $40,... READ MORE
BUYING HEALTHCARE AGAIN... After taking a leadership role during March and April, healthcare stocks have essentially moved sideways over the last couple of months while the rest of the market has gained ground. The sector's recent underperformance can be seen by the falling XLV/SPX relative strength ratio... READ MORE
LONG-TERM TREND APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO GOLD OVER STOCKS... Recent messages showing the ongoing bull market in gold (and its miners) have stressed that a weaker dollar and historically low global interest rates have pushed the price of gold to the highest level in nearly nine years. Yesterday&... READ MORE