On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry walks viewers through what he considers to be the best indicators, including technical and fundamental ones alike. Larry discusses their limitations and explains why they have them, then shows you the best ways that you can use them in... READ MORE
STOCKS SURGE ON VACCINE OPTIMISM... A report that a vaccine developed by Moderna is showing positive results helped push stocks sharply higher today. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 gapping higher and in position to test their recent highs. The SPX may also... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES STABILIZE NEAR SUPPORT... After a weak start this morning, major stock indexes are stabilizing near some short-term support levels. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials finding support at its 50-day moving average and its mid-April intraday low at 22900. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 holding... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the S&P Composite, despite the strong rally off the March low, had failed to touch an overbought condition. That presented a problem, since a security that is unable to reach an overstretched reading is usually suffering from some kind of a bear... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 WEAKEN... Stock prices are continuing the pullback that began yesterday afternoon. And some short-term support levels may soon be tested. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials slipping below their 20-day average (green line) and in position to test their early May low at 23400.... READ MORE
STOCKS RALLY ON BAD ECONOMIC NEWS... Last weekend's message suggested that the spring rally in stocks may have peaked. Judging from this week's strong price action, that doesn't appear to be the case. Stock prices have shown remarkable resilience in the face of very... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR NEARS 200-DAY LINE... Yesterday's message showed the Communication Services SPDR (XLC) trying to clear its 200-day moving average which it has done. The next in line may be consumer cyclicals. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) nearing a test of its red line.... READ MORE
Sixty-Five Year Record of Success One of my favorite long-term indicators involves the 12-month ROC of the S&P Composite falling below the -5% level and subsequently rallying back above zero. This approach is shown in Chart 1, which illustrates the period from 1995 through April 30 of this... READ MORE
XLC CONTINUES TO TEST 200-DAY LINE... Tuesday's message showed the Communication Services SPDR (XLC) challenging its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows that test still in progress. Its relative strength line in the lower box has also been rising. Internet stocks are the main driver behind recent XLC... READ MORE
STOCKS OPEN ON A STRONG NOTE... Stock prices opened much higher this morning. And all three major stock indexes are bouncing off some moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing off their 20- and 50-day moving averages which is usually their first line of support. Chart 2... READ MORE
STOCK RALLY MAY HAVE PEAKED... A number of short-term technical indicators suggest that the spring rebound in stocks may have peaked this past week. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 selling off on Thursday and Friday after touching its 62% Fibonnaci retracement line (purple... READ MORE
AMAZON SELLOFF HURTS CONSUMER CYCLICALS... Stocks in general are undergoing some profit-taking today. And consumer cyclicals are one of the day's weakest groups. A big reason for that is today's big drop in Amazon.com (AMZN). Chart 1 shows that influential stock dropping -7% today on... READ MORE
Commodities have been badly beaten up in the last few months, but no market goes down for ever, so it's natural to ask the question of whether it's time for an upside reversal. The evidence for that is not conclusive yet, but there are some very... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE...A positive report by Gilead Sciences on its Covid-19 drug helped stocks get off to a strong start today. The biotech stock is up 3% this morning on that report. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 gaining more than... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 CLEAR 50-DAY LINES...Stocks spent Monday extending the rebound that started two months ago. And they continue to overcome some overhead resistance barriers. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading back above its 50-average for the first time since February. While Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES END WEEK SLIGHTLY LOWER...After an unusually volatile week which included a plunge in the price of oil below zero, major stock indexes ended the week with small losses. Which leaves their overall trend patterns little changed. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ending the week just... READ MORE
GOLD MINERS ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUT... The price of gold continues to rise. Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) trading higher and nearing another seven-year high. Gold miners, however, are doing even better. The daily bars in Chart 2 show the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) jumping more... READ MORE
In recent articles, I have pointed out that quite a few of the short-term indicators reached well beyond their normal oversold readings at the March lows. Historically, this is has been a very bullish characteristic, often signaling the end of a bear market. The difference between now and most of... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE UNDER HEAVY SELLING PRESSURE...The plunge in the price of the May crude oil contract below zero this week, and the continuing plunge in oil prices in general, is taking a toll on stock market sentiment and trading. All three major stock indexes are under heavy... READ MORE
STOCKS EXTEND APRIL RALLY...Stocks ended the week on a strong note to extend their April rally. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 climbing 2.6% on Friday to close just above its 50-day average at 2863; and slightly above its late February broken... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES TEST SOME MOVING AVERAGE LINES... Today's strong price action suggests that stock indexes are trying to extend their April rebound. All major stocks got off to strong start. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials rising more than 2% today and nearing a test of its 50-day... READ MORE
History tells us that, at major turning points for commodities, there is a strong, albeit imprecise, tendency for the gold price to have preceded that reversal. Gold generally leads because a rising price anticipates inflation, while a falling one anticipates deflation. This idea is represented by the rightward sloping solid... READ MORE
WEAK ECONOMIC DATA CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS... A lot of weak economic reports today are causing profit-taking in stock prices. Weak bank earnings are making that group one of the day's weakest. A 10 basis point drop by the 10-year Treasury yield to 0.64% may also be... READ MORE
GOLD REACHES SEVEN-YEAR HIGH... Gold seems to have everything moving in its favor. Low global interest rates, a softer dollar, and fears of global economic recession. And most of all, a bullish chart pattern both for the yellow metal and its miners. A lot of bullish articles on gold have... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry addresses the impact the virus has had on the economy and the markets. Where does he see things going from here? Are we looking at a continued bear market or a bull move to the upside? Watch to find... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that last week, based on daily data, the gold price quietly broke out from a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. It's certainly a little overstretched on a short-term basis and may need to pause for a couple of sessions or so, but the longer-term indicators are pointing... READ MORE
POTENTIAL OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ON WEEKLY CHART... Stock prices are trading higher again today following a Fed injection of $2.3 trillion dollars into the economy. The question is how far can the rally carry, and are there still risks on the downside. For that, we're going to look... READ MORE
Whenever a specific technical event is repeated widely in many different stocks, it gets my attention, as it often signals a reversal in the prevailing trend. We call it the principle of commonality. Alternatively, you could think of it as the principle of strength in numbers. Tuesday's Action... READ MORE
STOCKS REGAIN UPSIDE MOMENTUM... Stocks are gaining ground today following yesterday's late selloff. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials gaining 3% today. Today's price gain has kept the Dow above its lower 38% Fibonnaci retracement line; and may be signalling a test of its 50% retracement... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 QQQ CLOSES BELOW 200-DAY LINE...Today's two earlier messages focused on three technology-dominated ETFs that were trying to clear their 200-day averages. All three failed that initial test by closing lower today. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust giving up its earlier gains and ending... READ MORE
QQQ TRADES ABOVE 200-DAY LINE...This morning's message showed the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) testing their 200-day moving averages. This message focuses on the Nasdaq 100 QQQ which is also trying to clear its 200-day line. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust trading above... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CLEAR LATE-MARCH HIGH...The stock market is building on yesterday's strong gain to improve its short- to intermediate trend picture. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 rising above its late-March intra-day peak at 2641 after clearing its green 20-day average... READ MORE
S&P 500 MAY BE HEADED FOR TEST OF LATE-MARCH HIGH...Global stocks are starting the week higher. The daily bars in Chart 1, for example, show the S&P 500 gapping higher this morning and clearing its green 2o-day average. The green circle shows the SPX leaving... READ MORE
DAILY S&P 500 CHART CONTINUES TO STABILIZE...Major U.S. stock indexes continue to probe for a short-term bottom. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 regaining some lost ground over the last two weeks after falling to the lowest level in three... READ MORE
In my monthly Intermarket Review this month, I pointed out that, using a 6-week ROC for perspective, the DJIA dropped by 36% on March 20 -before then, there had only been two other instances where the market had fallen by a similar amount from an all-time-high. Based on the DJIA... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry presents an in-depth discussion of the Federal Reserve System. In addition to walking you through the history of the Fed and describing its primary functions, Larry shares how and why he changed his stance from anti-Fed to a strong... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This is an expansion of a previous Market Roundup article written on Tuesday, March 24th, now with updated charts and commentary. For the original article, click here. I wrote earlier in the week that, whenever the market rallies by 8-9%, it's obvious that some... READ MORE
* Indicators Start to Flash Buy Signals * What Happened in the 1929-32 Bear Market? * Longer-Term Perspective Whenever the market rallies by 8-9%, it's obvious that some form of bottom has taken place (however fleeting), so I don't want to state the obvious. It is apparent, though, that... READ MORE
LOWER TARGET FOR THE DOW... My weekend message showed the Dow Industrials testing important chart support along its late 2018 low. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Dow falling below that important support line this week. That raises the likelihood of even lower prices. The question is how... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry explains why he believes the bull is about to roar back and put the bears to sleep. Based on nearly 60 years of market analysis and trading experience, Larry showcases the charts and indicators he's watching most... READ MORE