DOW AND S&P 500 CLEAR 50-DAY LINES...Stocks spent Monday extending the rebound that started two months ago. And they continue to overcome some overhead resistance barriers. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading back above its 50-average for the first time since February. While Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES END WEEK SLIGHTLY LOWER...After an unusually volatile week which included a plunge in the price of oil below zero, major stock indexes ended the week with small losses. Which leaves their overall trend patterns little changed. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ending the week just... READ MORE
GOLD MINERS ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUT... The price of gold continues to rise. Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) trading higher and nearing another seven-year high. Gold miners, however, are doing even better. The daily bars in Chart 2 show the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) jumping more... READ MORE
In recent articles, I have pointed out that quite a few of the short-term indicators reached well beyond their normal oversold readings at the March lows. Historically, this is has been a very bullish characteristic, often signaling the end of a bear market. The difference between now and most of... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE UNDER HEAVY SELLING PRESSURE...The plunge in the price of the May crude oil contract below zero this week, and the continuing plunge in oil prices in general, is taking a toll on stock market sentiment and trading. All three major stock indexes are under heavy... READ MORE
STOCKS EXTEND APRIL RALLY...Stocks ended the week on a strong note to extend their April rally. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 climbing 2.6% on Friday to close just above its 50-day average at 2863; and slightly above its late February broken... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES TEST SOME MOVING AVERAGE LINES... Today's strong price action suggests that stock indexes are trying to extend their April rebound. All major stocks got off to strong start. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials rising more than 2% today and nearing a test of its 50-day... READ MORE
History tells us that, at major turning points for commodities, there is a strong, albeit imprecise, tendency for the gold price to have preceded that reversal. Gold generally leads because a rising price anticipates inflation, while a falling one anticipates deflation. This idea is represented by the rightward sloping solid... READ MORE
WEAK ECONOMIC DATA CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS... A lot of weak economic reports today are causing profit-taking in stock prices. Weak bank earnings are making that group one of the day's weakest. A 10 basis point drop by the 10-year Treasury yield to 0.64% may also be... READ MORE
GOLD REACHES SEVEN-YEAR HIGH... Gold seems to have everything moving in its favor. Low global interest rates, a softer dollar, and fears of global economic recession. And most of all, a bullish chart pattern both for the yellow metal and its miners. A lot of bullish articles on gold have... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry addresses the impact the virus has had on the economy and the markets. Where does he see things going from here? Are we looking at a continued bear market or a bull move to the upside? Watch to find... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that last week, based on daily data, the gold price quietly broke out from a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. It's certainly a little overstretched on a short-term basis and may need to pause for a couple of sessions or so, but the longer-term indicators are pointing... READ MORE
POTENTIAL OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ON WEEKLY CHART... Stock prices are trading higher again today following a Fed injection of $2.3 trillion dollars into the economy. The question is how far can the rally carry, and are there still risks on the downside. For that, we're going to look... READ MORE
Whenever a specific technical event is repeated widely in many different stocks, it gets my attention, as it often signals a reversal in the prevailing trend. We call it the principle of commonality. Alternatively, you could think of it as the principle of strength in numbers. Tuesday's Action... READ MORE
STOCKS REGAIN UPSIDE MOMENTUM... Stocks are gaining ground today following yesterday's late selloff. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials gaining 3% today. Today's price gain has kept the Dow above its lower 38% Fibonnaci retracement line; and may be signalling a test of its 50% retracement... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 QQQ CLOSES BELOW 200-DAY LINE...Today's two earlier messages focused on three technology-dominated ETFs that were trying to clear their 200-day averages. All three failed that initial test by closing lower today. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust giving up its earlier gains and ending... READ MORE
QQQ TRADES ABOVE 200-DAY LINE...This morning's message showed the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) testing their 200-day moving averages. This message focuses on the Nasdaq 100 QQQ which is also trying to clear its 200-day line. Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust trading above... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CLEAR LATE-MARCH HIGH...The stock market is building on yesterday's strong gain to improve its short- to intermediate trend picture. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 rising above its late-March intra-day peak at 2641 after clearing its green 20-day average... READ MORE
S&P 500 MAY BE HEADED FOR TEST OF LATE-MARCH HIGH...Global stocks are starting the week higher. The daily bars in Chart 1, for example, show the S&P 500 gapping higher this morning and clearing its green 2o-day average. The green circle shows the SPX leaving... READ MORE
DAILY S&P 500 CHART CONTINUES TO STABILIZE...Major U.S. stock indexes continue to probe for a short-term bottom. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 regaining some lost ground over the last two weeks after falling to the lowest level in three... READ MORE
In my monthly Intermarket Review this month, I pointed out that, using a 6-week ROC for perspective, the DJIA dropped by 36% on March 20 -before then, there had only been two other instances where the market had fallen by a similar amount from an all-time-high. Based on the DJIA... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry presents an in-depth discussion of the Federal Reserve System. In addition to walking you through the history of the Fed and describing its primary functions, Larry shares how and why he changed his stance from anti-Fed to a strong... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This is an expansion of a previous Market Roundup article written on Tuesday, March 24th, now with updated charts and commentary. For the original article, click here. I wrote earlier in the week that, whenever the market rallies by 8-9%, it's obvious that some... READ MORE
* Indicators Start to Flash Buy Signals * What Happened in the 1929-32 Bear Market? * Longer-Term Perspective Whenever the market rallies by 8-9%, it's obvious that some form of bottom has taken place (however fleeting), so I don't want to state the obvious. It is apparent, though, that... READ MORE
LOWER TARGET FOR THE DOW... My weekend message showed the Dow Industrials testing important chart support along its late 2018 low. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Dow falling below that important support line this week. That raises the likelihood of even lower prices. The question is how... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry explains why he believes the bull is about to roar back and put the bears to sleep. Based on nearly 60 years of market analysis and trading experience, Larry showcases the charts and indicators he's watching most... READ MORE
DOW DROPS INTO BEAR TERRITORY... Friday's strong rebound helped prevent a very bad week in stocks from getting worse. And it came at a good time. That's because of number of U.S. stock indexes are nearing tests of major long-term support lines. We'll... READ MORE
This week has seen U.S. administration fiscal proposals, as well as 1.5 trillion dollars in Fed support, aimed at limiting the economic damage from COVID-19. Friday saw a travel ban put into effect, along with a state of emergency. Unfortunately, these actions, just like the previous week'... READ MORE
WORLD STOCK INDEX NEARS TEST OF LONG-TERM SUPPORT...The Dow Industrials entered a bear market yesterday when it closed more than -20% off its recent high. Another big global selloff today has put the world's stocks in a bear market as well. Which suggests that stocks in the... READ MORE
* Bonds and Yen Starting to Lose Safety Appeal? * One Indicator That Has Returned to Financial Crisis Levels Bonds and Yen Starting to Lose Safety Appeal? The stock market has got the majority of the attention in the last couple of weeks because of its exceptional volatility. On the other hand,... READ MORE
* Revisiting the February 29 Hammer * Hammering a Top for COVID-19 Revisiting the February 29 Hammer On Friday, 29 February, I pointed out that the Wilshire 5,000 had formed a bullish hammer at a time when a couple of other short-term indicators had reached extreme levels, thereby suggesting a rally.... READ MORE
NASDAQ HOLDS 200-DAY LINE... Let's start with some good news. Heading into the close yesterday afternoon (Friday), stocks were under heavy selling pressure. And the Nasdaq Composite Index was in danger of closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since last spring. A late stock... READ MORE
RETEST OF LAST WEEK'S LOWS APPEARS LIKELY... Another day of heavy selling has marked the end of this week's rebound, and a likely retest of last week's lows. Another plunge in bond yields to record lows and a 10% plunge in the price of... READ MORE
BANKS AND AIRLINES HIT NEW LOWS... Another record low in bond yields and a continuing flight to the safety of bonds (and gold) are helping put stock prices under heavy selling pressure today. The biggest sector losers are financials, energy, industrials, and cyclicals. It's not hard to understand... READ MORE
* Shanghai is Outperforming the US * Interesting Chinese Sectors Shanghai is Outperforming the US Back in early January, I drew your attention to the fact that the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) had broken to the upside, which is shown in Chart 1. A week or so later, when the coronavirus reared its... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM STOCK REBOUND CONTINUES... Extremely oversold readings on daily charts at the end of last week, combined with chart support near the October low, increased odds for a rebound in stocks this week. Stocks are rebounding today after yesterday's selloff. And are building on gains that started on... READ MORE
VERY OVERSOLD BUT NO REBOUND YET... After this week's stock plunge, it's not surprising to see short-term momentum and sentiment indicators reach very oversold conditions. That doesn't guarantee a short-term bottom; but does increase the technical odds for one. And even if one does... READ MORE
VIX CLOSES AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN TWO YEARS... Stocks sold off hard again today with more 200-day moving averages being broken. The inability of stock indexes to offer any buying near those long-term support lines is a very discouraging sign. So was today's large jump in the CBOE... READ MORE
S&P 500 APPEARS HEADED TOWARD 200-DAY AVERAGE... An early rebound attempt faded today and the Dow and S&P 500 ended the day lower. Only the Nasdaq managed to hold onto a small gain. The Dow Industrials closed below their 200-day average for the second day in... READ MORE
* Some Signs of Weakness * On a More Bullish Note * Mind that Gap and Volatility Last time I wrote about the stock market was the first week in February, where I concluded that a couple of indicators were oversold, but that many others were not, so further corrective action probably lay... READ MORE