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STOCK CORRECTION DEEPENS -- NASDAQ AND S&P 500 BREAK JANUARY LOWS -- DOW FALLS BELOW 200-DAY LINE -- SO DO BANKS, MATERIALS, SMALL CAPS, AND TRANSPORTS -- 10-YEAR TREASURY FALLS TO RECORD LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKET ROUT CONTINUES... Stocks tumbled for the second day in a row and in heavy trading once again. And important support levels are being broken. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell below their January lows today and further below their 50-day averages in pretty decisive fashion. Charts 1...
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GLOBAL STOCKS TUMBLE ON CORONAVIRUS SPREAD -- 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO NEARLY FOUR-YEAR LOW -- ENERGY, TECH, AND CYCLICALS LEAD THE DECLINE -- SOME SUPPORT LEVELS HAVE BEEN BROKEN -- VIX SURGES TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN A YEAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL STOCKS PLUNGE ON CORONAVIRUS SPREAD... Recent technical warnings that global stocks were vulnerable to more selling became a harsh reality today. And in a big way. Global stocks fell the most in nearly a year. Selling started in Asia and Europe before spreading to the states. And a lot...
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GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES LOOK VULNERABLE -- THAT INCLUDES AN OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 -- EAFE ISHARES BACKING OFF FROM 2018 HIGH -- EMERGING MARKETS LOOKING THE WEAKEST -- % S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE WEAKENS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL STOCKS LOOK OVER-EXTENDED AND VULNERABLE... A number of recent messages have shown charts suggesting that the U.S. stock market looks overbought on the upside and vulnerable to some profit-taking. Not necessarily a major top, but a correction of some sort. Foreign stocks look even more vulnerable. And what...
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GOLD MINERS ETF NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- SEMICONDUCTERS LEAD TECH SECTOR LOWER -- FRIDAY'S SELLING SUGGESTS THAT OVERBOUGHT STOCK PULLBACK HAS PROBABY BEGUN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD MINERS ETF NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT... With gold surging again today to another seven-year high, gold miners are having an even stronger day percentage-wise. And are nearing a major upside breakout. Chart 1 shows the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) trading 3% higher today and nearing a challenge of its...
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DOLLAR SURGES TO NEARLY THREE-YEAR HIGH -- PLUNGING YEN HURTS JAPAN ISHARES -- WEAK EM CURRENCIES HURT EEM ISHARES --U.S. STOCKS LOOK VULNERABLE TO SOME PROFIT-TAKING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX BREAKS OUT TO THE UPSIDE... The strong rally that started in the dollar in January passed another technical milestone this week. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the U.S. Dollar Index rising above its September/October peaks in yesterday's trading to reach...
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Low Bond Yields May Not Be Around Much Longer
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Secular Trend for the 20-Year Yield
* Lower Down Curve Yields Are Already in a Secular Bull
* Short-Term Oscillators Ready for Some Upside Action?
The coronavirus has triggered concerns about the recovery, which in turn has resulted in a sharp setback for yields. Falling yields are bullish for housing starts, which,...
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GOLD REACHES SEVEN-YEAR HIGH -- GOLD MINERS ARE ALSO TURNING UP -- NEWMONT GOLDCORP EXCEEDS 2016 HIGH -- BARRICK GOLD REACHES FOUR-YEAR HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD RESUMES UPTREND... My weekend message explained why falling bond yields, and an over-extended stock market, might be two of the reasons that investors have been buying gold since the start of the year. And they're doing so in the face of a rising dollar. The message also...
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FALLING BOND YIELDS HAVE BEEN GIVING A BIG BOOST TO THE PRICE OF GOLD -- AND HELPED OFFSET IMPACT OF RISING DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOLD AND THE DOLLAR... Last weekend's message explained that one of the side-effects of a rising U.S dollar is weaker commodity prices. And that's been the case so far this year as a four-month high in the U.S. Dollar Index has pushed...
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LOWER YIELDS PUSH REITS AND UTILITIES TO RECORDS -- BANK SPDR MEETS SELLING AT 50-DAY LINE -- S&P 500 STILL LOOKS OVEREXTENDED -- WITH A SHORT-TERM NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... Treasury yields are down again today, and are losing some of the gains made over the last two weeks. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield losing 3 basis points today to 1.58%. The pennant-like shape of its sideways...
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Commodities Remain on a Knife Edge
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Where Are We in the Cycle?
* The Economy is Currently on the Side of the Bulls
* The Technical Position of the DB Commodity ETF is Precarious
Where Are We in the Cycle?
Back in December, I wrote an articlepointing out that the business cycle was nothing more than a set...
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BUYING OF GAMBLING, HOTELS, AND CRUISE LINES IS A SIGN THAT CORONAVIRUS THREAT MAY BE PASSING -- AMERICAN AIRLINES LEADS AIRLINES HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKETS LOOKING BEYOND CORONAVIRUS THREAT... Price action of the global financial markets over the past week strongly suggest that fears of the coronavirus are fading.Major U.S. stock indexes are trading at new records. Foreign stocks are being led higher by Asian emerging markets, with help from China. Crude...
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DOLLAR INDEX HAS A STRONG WEEK AS EURO FALLS -- GLOBAL INVESTORS ARE FAVORING U.S. ASSETS -- STRONGER $ WEAKENS COMMODITIES -- AND FOREIGN STOCK ETFS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
US DOLLAR INDEX TURNS UP... My Thursday message showed the Invesco US Dollar Index ETF (UUP) hitting a four month high and challenging its previous peak formed during October. It cleared that barrier on Friday. Chart 1, however, plots the US Dollar Index ($USD) which I prefer using to track...
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TRAVEL STOCKS UNDER PRESSURE AGAIN -- AIRLINES, GAMBLING STOCKS, AND CRUISE LINERS RETEST MOVING AVERAGE LINES -- PLAYING SOME DEFENSE GOING INTO WEEKEND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRAVEL STOCKS UNDER PRESSURE... My Tuesday message showed a number of travel and tourism stock groups with heavy exposure to China finding support near moving average lines; or regaining them. Today's message shows those same groups under pressure again today. Let's start with airlines. Chart 1...
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DOLLAR RALLIES TO A FOUR MONTH HIGH -- MOST MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE DROPPING -- THE EURO IS THREATENING CHART SUPPORT -- A STRONGER DOLLAR COULD SIGNAL GLOBAL INVESTORS ROTATING BACK INTO U.S. MARKETS -- BUT COULD BE NEGATIVE FOR COMMODITY PRICES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR INDEX NEARS TEST OF EARLY OCTOBER HIGH...While recent volatility in stocks, commodities, and bonds has received a lot of attention, currency trading has been relatively quiet. But that may be changing. Chart 1 shows the Invesco US Dollar Index (UUP) climbing this week to the highest level in...
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It's Still a Bull Market, But More Corrective Activity is Likely
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Why the Correction Will Likely be Contained
* More Corrective Action Likely
* One Indicator Flashes a Buy Signal
* Conclusion
Why the Correction Will Likely be Contained
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that a correction was inevitable, and presented a couple of indicators to suggest that it might be close....
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BIG JUMP IN ASIA BOOSTS GLOBAL STOCKS -- AIRLINES, CRUISE LINES, HOTELS, AND GAMING STOCKS ARE REGAINING MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORT -- COPPER STOCKS ARE ALSO FINDING SUPPORT -- DOW REGAINS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EMERGING ASIA LEADS GLOBAL STOCKS HIGHER...A strong rebound in Asia today is giving a big boost to global stocks. Emerging markets in Asia led the rest of the world lower over the last two weeks. And are leading it higher today. Chart 1 shows the MSCI Asia ex Japan...
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GLOBAL STOCKS WERE DUE FOR A PULLBACK -- THE CORONAVIRUS IN CHINA IS JUST THE CATALYST FOR AN OVERDUE GLOBAL CORRECTION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL STOCKS WERE ALREADY STRETCHED TOO FAR...The coronavirus outbreak in China has rattled global markets all over the world, and rightly so. Fears of an economic slowdown in the world's second biggest economy is something to be concerned about. And market reactions certainly suggest that investors are...
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CHINESE STOCKS LEAD EMERGING MARKETS LOWER -- THAT'S ALSO HURTING AUSTRALIAN MARKETS -- U.S. STOCKS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE -- THE DOW IS THREATENING ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW THREATENS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE...Global stocks remain under pressure. My last message on Wednesday suggested that the continuing drop in bond yields and economically-sensitive commodities put the mid-week stock rebound in doubt. That still remains the case, not just here in the states; but even more so in foreign...
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LOWER BOND YIELDS AND WEAK COMMODITY PRICES CAST DOUBT ON STOCK MARKET REBOUND --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS AND COMMODITIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...One of the recent warnings that I wrote about was the drop in bond yields that has taken place since the start of January. Most of that drop in yields took place last week when a flight to the safety of government bonds...
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The Stock Market May Be Rattled by the Coronavirus, But Commodities and Bond Yields Have Battles of Their Own
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Bond Yields are Just Above Support
* Commodities are at Support
The stock market was roughed up by the coronavirus earlier in the week, but, under the surface, another battle has been going on -- the one between inflation and deflation, that is, as both yields and commodity prices have run...
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STOCKS SELL OFF IN CONTINUATION OF LAST WEEK'S DEFENSIVE WARNINGS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE SELLING THAT STARTED LAST WEEK...The selling of stocks that started late last week intensified today. That shouldn't be too much of a surprise considering all the warnings given by the various markets as described in these messages. They include the plunge in Treasury yields...
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AIRLINES, CRUISE SHIPS, GAMBLING, AND HOTEL STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER AS CHINESE VIRUS SPREADS -- THAT COULD LEAD TO PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR PULLED LOWER BY TRAVEL AND ENTERTAINMENT STOCKS... Yesterday's message showed bond yields falling (and bond prices rising) in a flight to the safety of government bonds. And further suggested that fears of the Chinese virus spreading was most likely behind that more defensive tone. Bond...
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When the Inevitable Correction Comes, History Suggests It Won't Amount to Much
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
One of the basic laws of technical analysis, which I have learned the hard way, is to be very careful about calling counter-cyclical short-term moves. The primary trend dominates everything. For example, if you are in a bear market and you see a short-term oversold condition, do not assume that...
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REBOUND IN BOND PRICES SHOWS FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- THAT'S ALSO BOOSTING REITS AND UTILITIES -- AND HOMEBUILDERS -- AND KEEPING BANKS ON THE DEFENSIVE -- GOLD MINERS REBOUND WHILE COPPER SHARES DROP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURY BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP... The drop in Treasury bond yields that started a month ago is continuing. And is nearing a test of some important support levels. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 30-Year Treasury yield (TYX) having already broken a rising trendline drawn under its...
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PRICE OF NATURAL GAS FALLS TO FOUR-YEAR LOW -- ETFS WITH NAT GAS EXPOSURE HAVE WEAKER YEAR -- THAT INCLUDES OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION AND OIL SERVICES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY STILL IN DECLINE... Despite today's snapback bounce in global stocks, one sector continues to weaken. And that's the energy sector. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) falling further below its 50- and 200-day moving averages today. And that's in a rising...
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The Art of Forecasting
by Larry Williams,
Veteran Investor and Author
What is the future going to look like? In this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry presents the general roadmap for each market in 2020. His analysis takes into account the various seasonal influences (e.g. Christmas sales, production schedules, government action, etc.) and cycles (bond forecast,...
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SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LEAD TODAY'S RALLY -- RUSSELL 2000 iSHARES NEAR TEST OF 2018 PEAK -- RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD -- WITH HELP FROM BIOTECHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES NEAR NEW RECORD... Small cap stocks are having an unusually strong day today. And are nearing a potential new record. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) trading at the highest level in sixteen months; and nearing a test of its previous...
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U.S. AND CHINA SIGN PHASE ONE OF TRADE DEAL -- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS -- LOWER BOND YIELDS BOOST UTILITIES AND REITS -- BANKS HIT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SIGNING OF TRADE DEAL BOOSTS STOCKS... Stocks celebrated the U.S. and China signing phase one of their historic trade deal today with the three major stock indexes hitting another record high. Despite some late selling this afternoon, stock indexes ended in positive territory. Stock indexes are still dealing with...
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Dollar Index Reaches a Crucial Technical Juncture Point
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
The Dollar Index has been rising in the last few sessions following its December decline, which has put it at a crucial technical juncture. Whichever way it breaks will have implications for commodities, gold and the relative performance of international equities to the US. A rising currency would have negative...
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STOCKS LOOK VUNLERABLE TO SHORT-TERM PULLBACK -- DIVERGENCE FROM BOND YIELD MAY BE A WARNING -- LOWER TREASURY YIELD BOOSTS UTILITIES AND REITS -- BUT MAY CAUSE PROFIT-TAKING IN BANKS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TEST 2018 PEAK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SHORT-TERM STOCK VIEW LOOKS OVER-EXTENDED...Despite geopolitical concerns at the start of the week between the U.S. and Iran, stocks ended the week higher. All three major stock indexes also hit new records before experiencing some minor-profit-taking on Friday. All trends remain solidly higher here and around the world....
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STOCKS RALLY ON REDUCED MIDEAST TENSIONS -- OIL DROPS SHARPLY -- ENERGY SHARES PULL BACK FROM CHART RESISTANCE -- VIX REMAINS WEAK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL STOCKS CLIMB ON CONCILIATORY REMARKS... After several tense days, some calm is being restored to global markets. The fact that last night's attack by Iran on allied bases in Iraq resulted in no casualties; plus a more conciliatory-sounding speech by President Trump shortly before noon appear to...
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RISING CANADIAN DOLLAR HELPS PUSH CANADA ISHARES TO NEW RECORD -- THAT'S BECAUSE THE EWC IS QUOTED IN U.S DOLLARS -- THAT'S TRUE OF ALL FOREIGN STOCK ISHARES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH... A couple of my messages posted during Christmas week wrote about a more bullish outlook for commodity markets this year. And the likelihood for a weaker U.S. dollar. One of the messages wrote about the Canadian Dollar being the strongest developed market currency...
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INCREASED MIDEAST TENSIONS CAUSE SOME PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS -- AND HIGHER CRUDE OIL PRICES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ATTACK ON IRAN'S TOP GENERAL PUSHES OIL PRICES HIGHER... Overnight news of the killing of Iran's top general by the U.S. is having a reasonably predictable effect on global markets. Global stocks are experiencing some profit-taking, while money is flowing into traditional safe havens like...
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Martin Pring's Monthly Market Roundup 2020-01-02
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
The monthly Market Roundup videofor January is now available.
Good luck and good charting,
Martin J. Pring
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates....
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Bull in a China Shop
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Major Breakouts Coming Out of China
* Four Chinese ETFs
Major Breakouts Coming Out of China
Thursday's price action in China resulted in a powerful signal that Chinese equities are headed significantly higher. That should be bullish not only for China but for the world as a whole. In...
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WHY THE DOLLAR COULD WEAKEN IN 2020 -- SPREAD OVER FOREIGN YIELDS HAS NARROWED -- STRONGER FOREIGN STOCKS BOOST LOCAL CURRENCIES -- CANADIAN DOLLAR RISES WITH COMMODITIES -- EM CURRENCIES ARE TURNING UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WHY A LOWER DOLLAR...Yesterday's message suggested that commodity prices may be bottoming; which could lead to a better 2020 for the first time in years. Part of that analysis, however, was based on expectations for a lower dollar. That's because a falling dollar is usually...
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WEAKER DOLLAR COULD MAKE 2020 A BETTER YEAR FOR COMMODITIES AND STOCKS TIED TO THEM -- MOST COMMODITY GROUPS ARE STRENGTHENING -- THAT INCLUDES ENERGY WHICH MAY BE BOTTOMING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A WEAKER DOLLAR COULD GIVE COMMODITIES A BETTER 2020... Commodities have become the forgotten asset class over the past several years. And for good reason. They've been the weakest part of the financial universe for nearly a decade. But that doesn't mean that they should continue...
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PRECIOUS METALS APPEAR TO BE TURNING UP -- BUT SILVER IS IN THE LEAD -- SO ARE ITS MINERS -- SINCE SILVER IS PART INDUSTRIAL METAL, IT SHOULD DO BETTER THAN GOLD IN A STRONGER ECONOMY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD IS TURNING HIGHER... Money appears to be flowing back into precious metals. Chart 1 shows the GOLD SPDR (GLD) rising above a falling trendline extending back to early September which suggests that the four-month downside correction may have run its course. It's also trading at the highest...
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FOOTWEAR IS ANOTHER XLY LEADER -- THAT INCLUDES CROCS, NIKE, AND SKECHERS -- TESLA ACCOUNTS FOR AUTO STRENGTH -- ALL MAY BE TIED TO IMPROVEMENT IN CHINA -- THAT INCLUDES GAMBLING AND HOTEL STOCKS -- ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES SAILS TO NEW RECORD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ADD FOOTWEAR TO LIST OF XLY LEADERS... This week's messages have been focusing on the recent upside breakout in the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and groups that are leading it higher. The last two messages showed gambling and hotel stocks taking the lead with some of them hitting...
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Stocks are Overdue for a Correction, But These Charts Say It Doesn't Matter
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Confidence is Breaking Out All Over
* Alternative Risk Relationships are Starting to Get Riskier
Right now, stocks are very overextended and likely due for a correction. In Chart 1, for instance, you can see that my Global Diffusion indicator has just triggered a sell signal from an extreme level. The...
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