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DOLLAR RALLIES TO A FOUR MONTH HIGH -- MOST MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE DROPPING -- THE EURO IS THREATENING CHART SUPPORT -- A STRONGER DOLLAR COULD SIGNAL GLOBAL INVESTORS ROTATING BACK INTO U.S. MARKETS -- BUT COULD BE NEGATIVE FOR COMMODITY PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX NEARS TEST OF EARLY OCTOBER HIGH...While recent volatility in stocks, commodities, and bonds has received a lot of attention, currency trading has been relatively quiet. But that may be changing.   Chart 1 shows the Invesco US Dollar Index (UUP) climbing this week to the highest level in...   READ MORE 

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It's Still a Bull Market, But More Corrective Activity is Likely

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Why the Correction Will Likely be Contained * More Corrective Action Likely * One Indicator Flashes a Buy Signal * Conclusion Why the Correction Will Likely be Contained A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that a correction was inevitable, and presented a couple of indicators to suggest that it might be close....   READ MORE 

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BIG JUMP IN ASIA BOOSTS GLOBAL STOCKS -- AIRLINES, CRUISE LINES, HOTELS, AND GAMING STOCKS ARE REGAINING MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORT -- COPPER STOCKS ARE ALSO FINDING SUPPORT -- DOW REGAINS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING ASIA LEADS GLOBAL STOCKS HIGHER...A strong rebound in Asia today is giving a big boost to global stocks.   Emerging markets in Asia led the rest of the world lower over the last two weeks.  And are leading it higher today.  Chart 1 shows the MSCI Asia ex Japan...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS WERE DUE FOR A PULLBACK -- THE CORONAVIRUS IN CHINA IS JUST THE CATALYST FOR AN OVERDUE GLOBAL CORRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GLOBAL STOCKS WERE ALREADY STRETCHED TOO FAR...The coronavirus outbreak in China has rattled global markets all over the world, and rightly so.   Fears of an economic slowdown in the world's second biggest economy is something to be concerned about.   And market reactions certainly suggest that investors are...   READ MORE 

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CHINESE STOCKS LEAD EMERGING MARKETS LOWER -- THAT'S ALSO HURTING AUSTRALIAN MARKETS -- U.S. STOCKS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE -- THE DOW IS THREATENING ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW THREATENS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE...Global stocks remain under pressure.  My last message on Wednesday suggested that the continuing drop in bond yields and economically-sensitive commodities put the mid-week stock rebound in doubt.   That still remains the case, not just here in the states; but even more so in foreign...   READ MORE 

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LOWER BOND YIELDS AND WEAK COMMODITY PRICES CAST DOUBT ON STOCK MARKET REBOUND --

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS AND COMMODITIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...One of the recent warnings that I wrote about was the drop in bond yields that has taken place since the start of January.   Most of that drop in yields took place last week when a flight to the safety of government bonds...   READ MORE 

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The Stock Market May Be Rattled by the Coronavirus, But Commodities and Bond Yields Have Battles of Their Own

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Bond Yields are Just Above Support * Commodities are at Support The stock market was roughed up by the coronavirus earlier in the week, but, under the surface, another battle has been going on -- the one between inflation and deflation, that is, as both yields and commodity prices have run...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS SELL OFF IN CONTINUATION OF LAST WEEK'S DEFENSIVE WARNINGS --

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE SELLING THAT STARTED LAST WEEK...The selling of stocks that started late last week intensified today.  That shouldn't be too much of a surprise considering all the warnings given by the various markets as described in these messages.  They include the plunge in Treasury yields...   READ MORE 

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AIRLINES, CRUISE SHIPS, GAMBLING, AND HOTEL STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER AS CHINESE VIRUS SPREADS -- THAT COULD LEAD TO PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR PULLED LOWER BY TRAVEL AND ENTERTAINMENT STOCKS... Yesterday's message showed bond yields falling (and bond prices rising) in a flight to the safety of government bonds.   And further suggested that fears of the Chinese virus spreading was most likely behind that more defensive tone.   Bond...   READ MORE 

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When the Inevitable Correction Comes, History Suggests It Won't Amount to Much

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

One of the basic laws of technical analysis, which I have learned the hard way, is to be very careful about calling counter-cyclical short-term moves. The primary trend dominates everything. For example, if you are in a bear market and you see a short-term oversold condition, do not assume that...   READ MORE 

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REBOUND IN BOND PRICES SHOWS FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- THAT'S ALSO BOOSTING REITS AND UTILITIES -- AND HOMEBUILDERS -- AND KEEPING BANKS ON THE DEFENSIVE -- GOLD MINERS REBOUND WHILE COPPER SHARES DROP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP... The drop in Treasury bond yields that started a month ago is continuing.  And is nearing a test of some important support levels.   The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 30-Year Treasury yield (TYX) having already broken a rising trendline drawn under its...   READ MORE 

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PRICE OF NATURAL GAS FALLS TO FOUR-YEAR LOW -- ETFS WITH NAT GAS EXPOSURE HAVE WEAKER YEAR -- THAT INCLUDES OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION AND OIL SERVICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY STILL IN DECLINE... Despite today's snapback bounce in global stocks, one sector continues to weaken.  And that's the energy sector.  Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) falling further below its 50- and 200-day moving averages today.  And that's in a rising...   READ MORE 

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The Art of Forecasting

by Larry Williams,

Veteran Investor and Author

What is the future going to look like? In this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry presents the general roadmap for each market in 2020. His analysis takes into account the various seasonal influences (e.g. Christmas sales, production schedules, government action, etc.) and cycles (bond forecast,...   READ MORE 

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SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LEAD TODAY'S RALLY -- RUSSELL 2000 iSHARES NEAR TEST OF 2018 PEAK -- RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD -- WITH HELP FROM BIOTECHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES NEAR NEW RECORD... Small cap stocks are having an unusually strong day today.  And are nearing a potential new record. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) trading at the highest level in sixteen months; and nearing a test of its previous...   READ MORE 

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U.S. AND CHINA SIGN PHASE ONE OF TRADE DEAL -- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS -- LOWER BOND YIELDS BOOST UTILITIES AND REITS -- BANKS HIT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SIGNING OF TRADE DEAL BOOSTS STOCKS... Stocks celebrated the U.S. and China signing phase one of their historic trade deal today with the three major stock indexes hitting another record high.  Despite some late selling this afternoon, stock indexes ended in positive territory.  Stock indexes are still dealing with...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Index Reaches a Crucial Technical Juncture Point

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The Dollar Index has been rising in the last few sessions following its December decline, which has put it at a crucial technical juncture. Whichever way it breaks will have implications for commodities, gold and the relative performance of international equities to the US. A rising currency would have negative...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS LOOK VUNLERABLE TO SHORT-TERM PULLBACK -- DIVERGENCE FROM BOND YIELD MAY BE A WARNING -- LOWER TREASURY YIELD BOOSTS UTILITIES AND REITS -- BUT MAY CAUSE PROFIT-TAKING IN BANKS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TEST 2018 PEAK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHORT-TERM STOCK VIEW LOOKS OVER-EXTENDED...Despite geopolitical concerns at the start of the week between the U.S. and Iran, stocks ended the week higher.  All three major stock indexes also hit new records before experiencing some minor-profit-taking on Friday.   All trends remain solidly higher here and around the world....   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RALLY ON REDUCED MIDEAST TENSIONS -- OIL DROPS SHARPLY -- ENERGY SHARES PULL BACK FROM CHART RESISTANCE -- VIX REMAINS WEAK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GLOBAL STOCKS CLIMB ON CONCILIATORY REMARKS... After several tense days, some calm is being restored to global markets.  The fact that last night's attack by Iran on allied bases in Iraq resulted in no casualties; plus a more conciliatory-sounding speech by President Trump shortly before noon appear to...   READ MORE 

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RISING CANADIAN DOLLAR HELPS PUSH CANADA ISHARES TO NEW RECORD -- THAT'S BECAUSE THE EWC IS QUOTED IN U.S DOLLARS -- THAT'S TRUE OF ALL FOREIGN STOCK ISHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH... A couple of my messages posted during Christmas week wrote about a more bullish outlook for commodity markets this year.  And the likelihood for a weaker U.S. dollar.  One of the messages wrote about the Canadian Dollar being the strongest developed market currency...   READ MORE 

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INCREASED MIDEAST TENSIONS CAUSE SOME PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS -- AND HIGHER CRUDE OIL PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ATTACK ON IRAN'S TOP GENERAL PUSHES OIL PRICES HIGHER... Overnight news of the killing of Iran's top general by the U.S. is having a reasonably predictable effect on global markets.  Global stocks are experiencing some profit-taking, while money is flowing into traditional safe havens like...   READ MORE 

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Martin Pring's Monthly Market Roundup 2020-01-02

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The monthly Market Roundup videofor January is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates....   READ MORE 

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Bull in a China Shop

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Major Breakouts Coming Out of China * Four Chinese ETFs Major Breakouts Coming Out of China Thursday's price action in China resulted in a powerful signal that Chinese equities are headed significantly higher. That should be bullish not only for China but for the world as a whole. In...   READ MORE 

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WHY THE DOLLAR COULD WEAKEN IN 2020 -- SPREAD OVER FOREIGN YIELDS HAS NARROWED -- STRONGER FOREIGN STOCKS BOOST LOCAL CURRENCIES -- CANADIAN DOLLAR RISES WITH COMMODITIES -- EM CURRENCIES ARE TURNING UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WHY A LOWER DOLLAR...Yesterday's message suggested that commodity prices may be bottoming; which could lead to a better 2020 for the first time in years.   Part of that analysis, however, was based on expectations for a lower dollar.  That's because a falling dollar is usually...   READ MORE 

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WEAKER DOLLAR COULD MAKE 2020 A BETTER YEAR FOR COMMODITIES AND STOCKS TIED TO THEM -- MOST COMMODITY GROUPS ARE STRENGTHENING -- THAT INCLUDES ENERGY WHICH MAY BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A WEAKER DOLLAR COULD GIVE COMMODITIES A BETTER 2020... Commodities have become the forgotten asset class over the past several years.  And for good reason.  They've been the weakest part of the financial universe for nearly a decade.  But that doesn't mean that they should continue...   READ MORE 

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PRECIOUS METALS APPEAR TO BE TURNING UP -- BUT SILVER IS IN THE LEAD -- SO ARE ITS MINERS -- SINCE SILVER IS PART INDUSTRIAL METAL, IT SHOULD DO BETTER THAN GOLD IN A STRONGER ECONOMY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD IS TURNING HIGHER... Money appears to be flowing back into precious metals.   Chart 1 shows the GOLD SPDR (GLD) rising above a falling trendline extending back to early September which suggests that the four-month downside correction may have run its course.  It's also trading at the highest...   READ MORE 

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FOOTWEAR IS ANOTHER XLY LEADER -- THAT INCLUDES CROCS, NIKE, AND SKECHERS -- TESLA ACCOUNTS FOR AUTO STRENGTH -- ALL MAY BE TIED TO IMPROVEMENT IN CHINA -- THAT INCLUDES GAMBLING AND HOTEL STOCKS -- ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES SAILS TO NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ADD FOOTWEAR TO LIST OF XLY LEADERS... This week's messages have been focusing on the recent upside breakout in the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and groups that are leading it higher.  The last two messages showed gambling and hotel stocks taking the lead with some of them hitting...   READ MORE 

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Stocks are Overdue for a Correction, But These Charts Say It Doesn't Matter

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Confidence is Breaking Out All Over * Alternative Risk Relationships are Starting to Get Riskier Right now, stocks are very overextended and likely due for a correction. In Chart 1, for instance, you can see that my Global Diffusion indicator has just triggered a sell signal from an extreme level. The...   READ MORE 

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And That's a Wrap

by Larry Williams,

Veteran Investor and Author

On the 12th and final regular episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry takes a look at Great Unknown Growth Stocks with a seasonal trade, including Diageo (DEO), Constellation (STZ) and Brown-Forman (BF/A). He also discusses the US Stock Market, Gold and Bonds, as well as his upcoming...   READ MORE 

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HOTEL STOCKS ARE ALSO XLY LEADERS -- HILTON, HYATT, AND MARRIOTT HIT NEW RECORDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW JONES HOTELS INDEX HITS NEW RECORD... Yesterday's message showed gambling stocks helping lead the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) into record territory this week.  It also mentioned leadership from autos, footwear, and hotels.  We're going to focus on hotels today.   Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones...   READ MORE 

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GAMBLING STOCKS LEAD XLY-- LAS VEGAS SANDS, MGM, AND WYNN GAIN -- STRONGER CHINESE STOCKS ARE HELPING -- AND CLOSE TIES TO MACAU

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GAMBLING STOCKS LEAD XLY TO RECORD...Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) hitting a new record high yesterday.  The XLY closed above a flat trendline drawn over its July/September highs to complete a bullish "ascending triangle" formation.  Assuming it can hold on to that upside...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS CONTINUE TO RALLY -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR IS TESTING UPPER PART OF TRIANGULAR FORMATION AND MAY BE NEARING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT INTO RECORD TERRITORY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GLOBAL STOCKS START THE WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE... Stocks around the world are starting the week on a strong note.   That includes foreign developed and emerging markets in Europe and Asia.   The three U.S. stock indexes are hitting new records.  So are a number of sector SPDRS including...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS ON REPORT OF TRADE AGREEMENT -- SMALL CAPS HIT NEW 52-WEEK HIGH -- WHILE FINANCIALS, TECH, AND HEALTHCARE HIT NEW RECORDS -- BIG JUMP IN BOND YIELDS BOOSTS FINANCIALS BUT HURTS BOND PROXIES -- MATERIALS SPDR HITS ANOTHER HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS...Reports of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China pushed global stock prices sharply higher today.  Chart 1 show the S&P 500 reaching record territory.  So did the Nasdaq.    Small cap stocks continued to show relative strength.  Chart 2 shows the...   READ MORE 

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Learn From Larry

by Larry Williams,

Veteran Investor and Author

Larry's goal is to tell you what is going to happen, not what's already taken place. In this episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry presents a new Great Unknown Growth Stock, Badger Meter (BMI), and discusses the Gold forecast, the US stock market and...   READ MORE 

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INDEX OF STOCKS TIED TO COPPER REACHES EIGHT-MONTH HIGH -- FREEPORT MCMORAN IS ONE OF MARKET'S STRONGEST STOCKS -- RISING NUCOR STOCK REFLECTS STRONGER STEEL STOCKS -- GLOBAL METALS & MINING ISHARES RISE TO FIVE-MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COPPER STOCKS REACH EIGHT-MONTH HIGH... My weekend message suggested that copper and stocks tied to it might be bottoming.   This week's strong action by both appears to be confirming that optimistic view.   Copper closed at a five-month high yesterday (and is trading higher again today).  Materials are today&...   READ MORE 

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COPPER AND GOLD HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS ALL YEAR -- FALLING BOND YIELDS EARLIER IN THE YEAR FAVORED GOLD -- THE RECENT RISE IN THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FAVORS COPPER -- COPPER AND ITS MINERS MAY BE FORMING BOTTOMS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STRONG JOBS REPORT ON FRIDAY BOOSTED COPPER BUT HURT GOLD...Friday's impressive jobs report took a lot of traders by surprise resulting in strong buying of stocks; which was accompanied by selling of Treasury bonds and other safe havens like gold.   Riskier assets gained which included copper prices....   READ MORE 

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It's Time To Watch For A Bottom In Commodities

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Markets and the Business Cycle * Using Other Markets to Forecast Commodities The Markets and the Business Cycle In my Monthly Market Roundup last week, I repeated a talk that I recently gave at the CMT Summit in Mumbai.  The talk in question began with an outline of the approach...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS JUMP ON STRONG JOBS REPORT -- RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES HIT NEW 52-WEEK HIGH -- ENERGY STOCKS BOUNCE WITH CRUDE OIL ON OPEC CUTS -- ALL SECTORS ARE GAINING WITH FINANCIALS AND HEALTHCARE HITTING NEW RECORDS -- T. ROWE PRICE HITS NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES JUMP ON STRONG JOBS REPORT... A strong November jobs report has stocks jumping today.  The three charts below show the three major U.S stock indexes gapping higher today; and pushing them further above their 20-day moving averages.  The erases the earlier setback seen on Tuesday.  And the...   READ MORE 

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ASSET MANAGERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER -- THAT INCLUDES NORTHERN TRUST AND BLACKROCK -- MATERIALS SPDR BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT -- NEWMONT GOLDCORP AND FREEPORT MCMORAN LEAD IT HIGHER -- A WEAKER DOLLAR MAY BE BOOSTING COMMODITY MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ASSET MANAGERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER...Financials continue to show new market leadership.  Most attention in that sector, however, is usually paid to bank stocks which are its biggest part.  Some other financial groups are also doing well.  Like asset managers which have been the strongest part of the financial sector...   READ MORE 

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Christmas Trades

by Larry Williams,

Veteran Investor and Author

In this engaging episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry takes a look at the Christmas Influence, looking at how the largest retail event of the year influences the markets. In addition, Larry talks the US Stock Market, Gold, bonds and Bitcoin (BTCUSD), before capping off by answering a...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS GAP HIGHER AND TRY TO REGAIN 20-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P 500 HAS ALSO BOUNCED OFF LOWER BOLLINGER BAND -- THOSE BANDS SHOW STOCKS PULLING BACK FROM OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY BUT STILL IN UPTRENDS -- LOWER BB VOLATILITY IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE TO STOCK PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES GAP HIGHER TODAY... After gapping lower yesterday, stocks are gapping higher today.   The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 also trying to regain its 20-day moving average (green line) that was violated yesterday.  If this morning's gap to the upside holds...   READ MORE