Here is the link to this month's Market Roundup video. There are a significant number of long-term charts that are starting to turn higher suggesting, that the brief economic slowdown in late 2018 is behind us and we are starting the next major leg higher. Market Roundup with... READ MORE
COMMODITY PRICES WEAKEN ... One of the factors the Fed is now considering to help formulate its monetary policy for the rest of the year is the question of inflation. Rising inflation puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Flat or falling inflation allows the Fed to stick with its... READ MORE
APRIL REBOUND IN FINANCIALS IS GIVING A BIG BOOST TO SMALL CAPS... I've been writing about the recent upturn in financial stocks and, to a lesser extent, small cap stocks. I also suggested that a stronger dollar might be helping smaller stocks. That's because a rising... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR GAPS LOWER ... In a mixed market day, industrials are the weakest sector. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) gapping lower today. That hasn't caused any serious chart damage with the XLI still trading well above its blue 50-day average. It is worth noting, however,... READ MORE
* The SPY/EFA Ratio Completes an Inverse Head-and-Shoulders * SPY/EFA Breakout also Bullish for the Dollar * The Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen * China Bucks the Flow The SPY/EFA Ratio Completes an Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Yesterday’s all-time new high in the S&P was well documented by the media,... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 TRADES ABOVE ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... In the midst of a strong market day, small caps are showing a bigger percentage gain than large caps. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) trading above its (red) 200-day moving average today. The RUT still needs to clear... READ MORE
RAILROAD STOCKS HAVE BECOME MARKET LEADERS... Two stock groups did better than the rest of the market this week. Transportation stocks had another strong week. As did the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) which was the week's strongest sector. Both have one group to thank for their strong performance.... READ MORE
BANKS, ENERGY, AND SMALL CAPS STRUGGLE WITH THEIR 200-DAY LINES... Three stock groups are still struggling to clear their 200-day lines. Chart 1 shows the KBW Bank Index sitting just below its red line. Lower bond yields today may be holding it back. But the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) has... READ MORE
* The Long-Term Picture Looks Positive * Gold’s Tuesday Downside Breakout Could Be the Spoiler * Platinum is Trying to Break Out Against Gold - Why That’s Important for the Economy The Long-Term Picture Looks Positive Over the last 6 years, it appears that the gold price has been trying to... READ MORE
ASSET MANAGERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Financials are the day's strongest sector. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) trading today at the highest level since last October. The solid gray line is a relative strength ratio of the XLF divided by the S&P 500; and... READ MORE
BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Strong earnings from three banks this morning have helped push that group sharply higher; and they're leading the financial sector and the market higher. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) gapping up to the highest level of the year (after regaining its... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX IS TRYING TO CLEAR ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... Last Wednesday's message showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index clearing its 200-day average; and suggested that left only the small caps to join the market rally. That may be about to happen. Chart... READ MORE
* Global Stocks Join Global A/D Line Above Key Trend Lines * Bitcoin Looking Better After an 80% Drop * Inflation vs. Deflation Global Stocks Join Global A/D Line Above Key Trend Lines Global stocks, represented in the form of the MSCI World Stock ETF (ACWI), peaked in January of last... READ MORE
POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FROM A STRONGER CHINA... My Thursday message showed an index of foreign stocks turning higher, which relieved concerns that weaker foreign stocks could start to weigh on U.S. stocks (as they did near the end of last year). To the contrary, rising foreign stocks are now supporting... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS ARE RISING ... Much of the concerns over the past year have centered around weakness in foreign stocks, and whether that would eventually pull U.S. stocks lower. The general feeling seemed to be that sooner or later the discrepancy between strong U.S. stocks and weak foreign stocks... READ MORE
U.S. STOCK INDEXES HEADING TOWARD TEST OF LAST YEAR'S HIGH... Major stock indexes in the U.S. appear on track to test their all-time highs reached during the second half of 2018. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index trading today at the highest level since early... READ MORE
* S&P Relative Action Edging Through Resistance * British Pound Going Wobbly Before Brexit? * Mega Buy Signal Could be in Store for the Shanghai Composite * Gold at a Momentum Downtrend Line as Well S&P Relative Action Edging Through Resistance We have all heard about the US economy being... READ MORE
The monthly Market Roundup video for April is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Group of Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES MAINTAIN THEIR 2019 UPTRENDS ... Major U.S. stock indexes appear on track to end the week and quarter with their 2019 uptrends intact. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials in a sideways trading pattern over the last month. This week's pullback bounced off its (blue)... READ MORE
TREASURY YIELDS FOLLOW BUNDS LOWER ... German 10-year bunds were sold below zero at today's auction which is keeping downside pressure on Treasury yields. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield falling today to the lowest level since the end of 2017. That's... READ MORE
* Long-Term Picture Remains Finely Balanced * Short-Term Indicators Still Showing Weakness * Confidence is Starting to Erode Again * Financials Break Down from a Broadening Wedge Earlier in the month, I wrote about the Ides of March and the fact that the market looked overstretched, apparently in need of some mean reversal corrective... READ MORE
PLUNGE IN BOND YIELDS CAUSES YIELD CURVE TO INVERT ... Weak economic numbers from the eurozone and the U.S. on Friday pushed bond yields here and in Europe sharply lower and caused heavy profit-taking in global stocks. The 10-Year German bond yield fell into negative territory (below zero) for the... READ MORE
* Deflation Index Leading the Market Higher * Inflation/Deflation Ratio Starting to Break in a Deflationary Direction * Several Deflation-Sensitive Industry Groups Looking Stronger Deflation Index Leading the Market Higher Last week, I wrote about the possibility of an upside price move in the bond market. So far, most areas remain below... READ MORE
NASDAQ AND S&P 500 HAVE CLEARED THEIR NOVEMBER HIGH... Just a week after slipping below their 200-day averages, the Nasdaq Composite Index in Chart 1 and the S&P 500 in Chart 2 appear to be ending the week above their November highs. That's the... READ MORE
* Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Prices * Bonds Reflect the Fine Current Balance Between Inflationary and Deflationary Forces Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Prices Chart 1 shows that the iShares 20-year Trust ETF, the TLT, has been in a trading range since late 2014. Currently, the price is above its 12-month MA and the long-term... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY SPDR HOLDS ITS 200-DAY LINE ... Stocks are off to a strong start for the week. All stock sectors are in the green today led by technology, energy, communications, financials, and cyclicals. All stocks sectors are also in the green with the technology-dominated Nasdaq in the lead. The Dow Industrials... READ MORE
HAPPY TENTH ANNIVERSARY... Today marks the tenth anniversary of the bull market in stocks that started on March 9, 2009. It's already the longest in history, and the first bull market to last ten years. According to the Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 has gained... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR IS BACK BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... As of today, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 are trading back below their 200-day averages. That leaves only the Dow Industrials still above that long-term support line. A number of sector ETFs have either failed a... READ MORE
* Dollar Diffusion Gives a Buy Signal * Differential Interest Rates Turn Bullish for the Dollar * $NYA and $COMPQ Drop Below Their 200-Day MAs One would think that a record trade deficit would be bearish for the dollar. However, the market does not agree, as the Invesco Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) just... READ MORE
GLOBAL STOCKS TURN DOWN FROM OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY... Several of the writers on this site have been pointing out that the strong 2019 stock rally had become over-extended, and was up against formidable chart resistance at their November high. So it's not a big surprise to see some profit-taking... READ MORE
* Strong Broadly-Based Rally * NYSE Declining Peaks and Troughs Still in Force * Several Short-Term Indicators Starting to Point South Strong Broadly-Based Rally The rally dating from Christmas Eve has been a powerful one, generating an approximate 20% gain from its low. It has also been broad, not only enabling the NYSE... READ MORE
KOHLS AND TARGET LEAD RETAILERS HIGHER ... Chart 1 shows Kohls (KSS) surging 7% to clear its 200-day average and trade at the highest level since November. Chart 2 shows Target (TGT) up nearly 5% and also trading at the highest level in three months. The broadline retailer is also trading... READ MORE
NOVEMBER HIGH IS BEING TESTED ... After having one of the strongest starts to a new year in history, major stock indexes find themselves testing yet another potential overhead resistance barrier. And they're doing so while in an over-extended technical condition. But they've been looking over-extended for... READ MORE
TREASURY BOND ETFS ARE UP AGAINST CHART RESISTANCE... Last Thursday's message suggested that an overbought Treasury bond market was looking vulnerable to some profit-taking. That's still the case. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond IShares (IEF) just below potential overhead... READ MORE
* Shanghai Composite Secular Uptrend Line is Still Intact * If China Rallies, Will It Take Commodities Along for the Ride? * China vs. Hong Kong * Chinese ETFs Experiencing a Reversal Shanghai Composite Secular Uptrend Line is Still Intact Chart 1 features a really important benchmark for the Shanghai Composite - a secular... READ MORE
CISCO, INTEL, AND MICROSOFT ARE DOW LEADERS ... A glance at today's most actives list for the Dow shows three stocks attracting a lot of the buying. Chart 1 shows Cisco (CSCO) surging to an all-time high. Its rising relative strength line (upper box) shows it leading the Dow... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... All three major U.S stocks are testing overhead resistance barriers. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials right up against their early December peak at 26000. That's the Dow's first test of a previous peak formed during the fourth quarter... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REMAINS WEAK ... Despite renewed optimism in the stock market which has had a spectacular start to the new year, Treasury yields remain surprisingly low. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) still trading close to its lowest level in a year. The TNX also remains below... READ MORE
* Superior Breadth Over Price Does Not Always Have a Positive Outcome * Weighted versus Equal Weight Chart 1 shows that the NYSE A/D Line touched a new high last week and seems to be leading the S&P higher. The textbooks tell us that a broad advance, such as... READ MORE
NASDAQ MAY BE THE THIRD MAJOR STOCK INDEX TO CROSS ITS RED LINE ... Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 building on their gains after rising above their 200-day averages (red lines). Both now appear headed for a test of their early December peaks.... READ MORE