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THE S&P 500 JOINS THE DOW ABOVE ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND INDUSTRIAL SPDRS HAVE CROSSED THEIR THEIR RED LINES -- THE XLI HAS ALSO CLEARED ITS DECEMBER HIGH -- RAILS ARE BOOSTING THE XLI -- NYSE AD LINES NEAR TEST OF 2018 HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 CROSSES ABOVE ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... Up to last night, the Dow Industrials were the only major stock index to trade above their 200-day average. The S&P 500 closed marginally above its 200-day line yesterday. Chart 2 shows the SPX extending that gain over its...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Index On The Verge Of A Breakout?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Dollar About to Break New Ground? * Euro Starting to Break Down * Swiss Franc at a Major Juncture Point * The Fortunes of the Canadian, Australian and EM Currencies are Tied to Commodities Dollar About to Break New Ground? I last wrote about the dollar at the end of January, pointing out...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR INDEX MAY BE NEARING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- SEVERAL FOREIGN CURRENCIES HAVE FAILED TESTS OF 200-DAY AVERAGES -- THE EURO MAY RETEST NOVEMBER LOW -- THE RISING DOLLAR WEAKENS COMMODITY PRICES -- ESPECIALLY BASE METALS AND ENERGY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX NEARS NEW HIGH... The recent upturn in the dollar is continuing today. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Invesco U.S. Dollar Index Fund (UUP) jumping to the highest level in two months and nearing a challenge of its December high. A close above that chart...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES ARE FAILING TEST OF 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- THE DOW MAY ALSO SLIP BACK BELOW ITS RED LINE -- FALLING BOND YIELDS ARE BOOSTING UTILITIES AND OTHER DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- WHILE A RISING DOLLAR IS HURTING ENERGY AND MATERIAL STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES CONTAIN THE RECENT RALLY... With stocks losing ground over the past two days, it looks like the 200-day averages that we've all been watching have managed to contain the 2019 rally. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 pulling back from that red overhead...   READ MORE 

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TESTING OF 200-DAY AVERAGES CONTINUES -- THE SPX AND QQQ ARE TESTING IT NOW -- XLI AND XLY ARE ALREADY ABOVE -- WHILE THE XLC IS STALLING AT ITS RED LINE -- TREASURY YIELDS AREN'T FOLLOWING STOCKS HIGHER WHICH GIVES MIXED MESSAGE ON INVESTOR CONFIDENCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ ARE TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGES ... It seems that everyone is watching 200-day moving averages. That's because the strong rebound since the end of December has pushed major U.S. stock indexes back to that overhead resistance line. What they do there should help...   READ MORE 

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The State Of The 200-Day Moving Average

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Three Major Averages are at their 200-Day MAs * The NYSE Has Been Declining for a Year * Will There Be Another Whipsaw? Today, of course, is the State of the Union Address, but for the markets it might well be the “State of the 200-Day Moving Average,” as that’s the...   READ MORE 

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WHAT TO MAKE OF THE 2019 REBOUND -- BEAR MARKET RALLY OR START OF A NEW UPLEG? -- OR PART OF A TOPPING PROCESS -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE AND MAYBE ITS DECEMBER HIGH -- WEEKLY CHARTS ALSO SHOW IMPROVEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 nearing a test of its 200-day moving average (red line). That's an important test for it and rest of the stock market. A strong stock market...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Roundup with Martin Pring 2019-02-02

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The Market Roundup Video For February is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates....   READ MORE 

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STOCK RALLY CONTINUES -- DOW IS THE FIRST INDEX TO REACH ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- CYCLICALS AND BIOTECHS ARE TRADING ABOVE THEIR 200-DAY LINES -- BIG DROP IN BOND YIELDS BOOSTS STAPLES, UTILITIES, AND REITS -- LOWER YIELDS ARE HURTING BANK STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE DOW IS THE FIRST TO REACH ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... The stock rally that began right after Christmas is continuing today. Major stock indexes have been heading up to challenge potential overhead resistance at their 200-day moving averages. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials being the first major stock index...   READ MORE 

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GOLD IS STARTING TO GAIN SOME UPSIDE ATTENTION -- SO ARE GOLD MINERS -- THAT MAY REFLECT EXPECTATIONS FOR A MORE DOVISH FED, A WEAKER DOLLAR, AND LOWER INTEREST RATES -- WEAKER GLOBAL STOCKS ALSO MAKE GOLD ASSETS A MORE ATTRACTIVE ALTERNATIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD ETFS ARE IN RALLY MODE ... Today is Fed day which could have an impact on several markets. The Fed isn't expected to raise its short-term rate today. But what it says after the meeting could have an impact. Two things are being watched very closely. The first...   READ MORE 

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If The Economy Is Truly Weakening, Commodities Should Be Vulnerable

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Long-Term Trend for Commodities Remains Bearish * What the Stock Market is Telling Us About Commodities * Short-Term Picture Not So Strong Recently, we have seen several reports of a weakening economy. These include a sharp drop in both the University of Michigan and Conference Board consumer sentiment and confidence numbers,...   READ MORE 

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STOCK ADVANCE CONTINUES AS 50-DAY AVERAGES HOLD -- 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE NOW IN SIGHT -- EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES REACH SEVEN-MONTH HIGH AND ARE CHALLENGING 200-DAY AVERAGE -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR IS ALSO CHALLENGING ITS 200-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDEXES HEAD TOWARD 200-DAY AVERAGES ... My Wednesday message expressed concern that several stock indexes were in danger of falling back below their 50-day averages, which would have put their January rebound in jeopardy. As today's first three charts show, however, the blue 50-day lines...   READ MORE 

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XILINX LEADS SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN NEARLY TWO MONTHS -- LAM RESEARCH IS ALSO HAVING A VERY STRONG DAY -- INTEL CLEARS 200-DAY AVERAGE TO LEAD DOW HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES TURN UP... My message from yesterday showed semiconductor stocks under selling pressure. In today's trading, however, semis are having a very strong day and are the day's strongest stock group. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) jumping 5% to reach the highest...   READ MORE 

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SEVERAL STOCK INDEXES ARE TRYING TO STAY ABOVE MOVING AVERAGE LINES -- CYCLICALS AND BIOTECHS ARE STRUGGLING WITH 200-DAY LINES -- SO ARE EMERGING MARKET ISHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEING TESTED... Recent messages have focused on major U.S stock indexes reaching overhead resistance barriers which could slow their January advance; or maybe even end it. All of those major stock indexes remain below their 200-day averages; while their 50-day lines remain below...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS DROP SHARPLY -- OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 BACKS OFF FROM TRENDLINE RESISTANCE -- WHILE AN OVERSOLD VIX INDEX BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT -- TRADE AND ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE STOCKS LEAD THE SELLING -- BIG DROP IN BOND YIELD BOOSTS BOND PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GLOBAL STOCKS SELL OFF WHILE BONDS RALLY... Stocks all over the world turned lower today. And they're doing it at a bad time. That's because the recent rebound has taken major U.S. stock indexes up to some formidable overhead resistance barriers. And they may be...   READ MORE 

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Where's That Test Of The December Low?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-Term Trend Still Points South * It Would be Unusual Not to Experience a Test of the December Low * Dollar ETF Breaking Out? Last week, I pointed out that the major averages were running into resistance at a moment when they were moderately overbought. At the time, some form of a...   READ MORE 

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JANUARY STOCK REBOUND CONTINUES -- STOCK INDEXES HAVE CLEARED THEIR 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- OVERHEAD RESISTANCE LINES STILL HAVE TO BE TESTED -- INCLUDING THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDEXES NEAR TEST OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... All major U.S. stock indexes have exceeded their 50-day averages (blue lines). That still leaves their 200-day averages to contain the rally. But there are a couple of other resistance lines that still need to be tested. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- OVERSOLD READINGS SUPPORT A RALLY -- BUT THEIR MAJOR TREND IS STILL DOWN -- THE S&P 500 NEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE WHILE THE VIX TESTS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE ... After months of poor absolute and relative performance, financial stocks are starting to show some upside leadership. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) gapping higher today and trading above its 50-day moving average (blue circle). That would be enough...   READ MORE 

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Market Hits Resistance, So What's Next?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Averages Reach Resistance * Selected Emerging Markets Starting to Look Interesting Last week, I wrote that, while my view on the primary trend remained bearish, I thought the lows established a couple of weeks or so ago stood a good chance of holding for a while. That view was based on...   READ MORE 

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RATIO ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAJOR SHIFT OUT OF STOCKS AND INTO BONDS -- ALL BOND CATEGORIES OUTPERFORMED STOCKS SINCE OCTOBER -- TREASURIES ARE DOING BETTER THAN INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES -- WHILE HIGH YIELD JUNK BONDS ARE THE WEAKEST BOND CATEGORY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMPARISON OF TWO VANGUARD FUNDS SHOWS BONDS IN THE LEAD ... In good times when investors are confident about the economy, they usually favor stocks over bonds. One of the ways we can tell when investors are starting to lose confidence is when they start favoring bond holdings over stocks. And...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO THREE-MONTH LOW -- THAT'S BOOSTING COMMODITY PRICES WITH GOLD IN THE LEAD -- A WEAK DOLLAR IS ALSO BOOSTING RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF FOREIGN SHARES -- ESPECIALLY EMERGING MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO THREE MONTH LOW... The U.S. dollar has come under heavy selling pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index Fund (UUP) tumbing to the lowest level since last October. That's giving a boost to foreign currencies which are gaining ground today. That includes both...   READ MORE 

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An Intermediate Oversold Condition Suggests That The December Low Is Likely To Hold For Several Months

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Short/Intermediate Oversold Condition * High-Low Data Reaches an Extreme * The Bear is Still With Us Until It Isn’t As we all know, markets have a strong tendency to swing from excessive optimism to extremes of pessimism. During the last month, we have certainly seen a substantial amount of pessimism...   READ MORE 

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STOCK REBOUND CONTINUES -- PRICES RECOVER SOME LOSSES SUFFERED OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS BUT REMAIN IN DOWNTRENDS -- STOCK INDEXES APPROACH POTENTIAL OVERHEAD RESISTANCE BARRIERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE JANUARY REBOUND ... Stock prices are trending higher again this morning which continues the rebound that started right after Christmas. Today's three price charts reflect that short-term improvement, while keeping them in a longer-range perspective. The main point of the charts is that all...   READ MORE 

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APPLE PLUNGES ON SALES WARNING -- STOCK INDEXES ARE FAILING AT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE LEVELS -- TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A YEAR AS BOND PRICES SURGE -- GOLD AND YEN BENEFIT FROM SAFE HAVEN BUYING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

APPLE PLUNGES ON FIRST QUARTER WARNING ... The price of Apple is plunging today after issuing a sales warning for the first quarter. The stock was already in trouble before that announcement. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show Apple (AAPL) falling today to the lowest level since the middle of...   READ MORE 

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January 2019 Market Roundup with Martin Pring

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The Market Roundup Video For January is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates....   READ MORE 

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Could Gold Be The Big Winner In 2019?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two Failed Outside Bars * Long-Term Indicators Tipping to the Bullish Side * Gold and the Shares Perking Up Against Equities in General * Silver Setting Up for a Possible Major Breakout Just before Christmas, I pointed out that the gold price, especially the shares, had experienced an outside day. Going by that...   READ MORE 

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PREVIOUS INSTANCES OF FED TIGHTENING ACCOMPANIED RISING COMMODITY PRICES -- THE FED IS RAISING RATES NOW WHILE COMMODITIES ARE PLUNGING -- WEAK CHINESE MARKET IS PULLING COMMODITIES LOWER -- AND REFLECTS A SLOWING GLOBAL ECONOMY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LAST TWO YIELD CURVE INVERSION RESULTED FROM RISING COMMODITY PRICES ... My Wednesday morning message suggested that a sharp drop in the price of oil and other commodities argued for a more dovish tone from the Fed. That message also explained that previous Fed tightening cycles were usually done to combat...   READ MORE 

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The Fed Unnerves Gold Market

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

In my December Market Roundup webinar, I touched on the idea that the economy had begun to seriously slow down. Wednesday’s Fed action, actual and potential for next year, will amplify that process. The equity markets are obviously paying attention, but the increased probability of higher rates and a...   READ MORE 

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THE FED CAN'T AFFORD TO MAKE A MISTAKE TODAY -- HIGHER SHORT-TERM RATES RISK AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE -- WHILE PLUNGING OIL PRICE SHOWS WEAKER INFLATION -- AND U.S. STOCKS ARE UNDERGOING A MAJOR TEST OF THEIR EARLY 2018 LOWS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TODAY IS A BIG DAY FOR THE FED -- AND FOR THE MARKETS ... Today is one of the most important Fed days in recent memory. That's because there's a lot riding on what it does this afternoon; or doesn't do. It's widely...   READ MORE 

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Catch A Falling Knife?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Market Remains Oversold * More Trend Damage Triggered * Key Ratios Have Just Broken to New Lows As a kid, I used to love building sand castles and defending them against the ensuing wave action. If the tide was coming in, however, it always proved to be a fool’s errand...   READ MORE 

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LONGER-RANGE INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH FOR U.S. STOCKS -- RETEST OF EARLY 2018 LOWS SHOULD DETERMINE IF STOCKS ARE IN A BEAR MARKET -- STOCKS OFF TO BAD DECEMBER START -- FAILURE OF SANTA CLAUS RALLY TO SHOW WOULD BE A BAD SIGN FOR THE NEW YEAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEEKLY S&P 500 CHART CONTINUES TO LOOK TOPPY... There's a reason why every short-term rally attempt over the past couple of months has failed. That's because longer-range indicators have turned bearish and remain so. It's more difficult for bounces on daily charts...   READ MORE 

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HEAVY SELLING PUSHES U.S. STOCK INDEXES NEAR DECEMBER LOWS -- EARLY 2018 LOWS ARE NEXT -- RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX AND THE DOW TRANSPORTS FALL TO 52-WEEK LOWS -- SO DOES THE S&P RETAIL SPDR -- THAT'S A BAD SIGN FOR THE STOCK MARKET AND THE ECONOMY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEADING BACK TO EARLY 2018 LOWS... After a unimpressive bounce this week, stock prices are ending week under heavy selling pressure. The first three charts show the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite nearing new lows for the month of December, which puts them on...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS ARE GOING BACK ON THE DEFENSIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHORT-TERM BOUNCE HAS RUN ITS COURSE ... This week's modest rebound in stocks has been unimpressive and appears to have run its course. Lack of upside volume and weak breadth also show that investors have stayed on the sidelines, or have sold into this week's rebound. Sector...   READ MORE 

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MONDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL DAY MAY HAVE SIGNALLED SHORT-TERM BOTTOM -- THAT COULD LEAD TO DECEMBER REBOUND TO OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- A STUDY OF SMALLER OR EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEXES SUGGESTS A RETEST OF EARLY 2018 LOWS MAY HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 MAY BE FORMING SHORT-TERM BOTTOM... My message from last Friday suggested that the S&P 500 was likely to drop below its October low, which could lead to a retest of its early 2018 lows (more on that last point shortly). Chart 1 shows Monday&...   READ MORE 

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Year-End Rally Here We Come?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Pinocchio Lies * Oversold Sentiment Indicators * Oversold Oscillators Pinocchio Lies Monday’s action was what I call “scary bullish.” First, we saw prices sell-off sharply, only to then rebound as if nothing had happened. Well, something did happen - the formation of a bullish Pinocchio bar on several Indexes. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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OIL JUMPS ON OPEC CUTS -- THAT'S GIVING ENERGY SECTOR A BOOST -- FALLING OIL HAS WEIGHED ON BOND YIELDS -- WEAK ENERGY PATCH AND FALLING STOCK PRICES HAVE ALSO WEAKENED HIGH-YIELD BONDS -- S&P 500 APPEARS TO BE TRIANGULATING WHICH FAVORS LOWER PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LARGER THAN EXPECTED OPEC CUTS BOOST CRUDE OIL ... OPEC and Russia finally agreed to a larger-than-expected production cut of 1.2 million barrels a day of crude oil which is lifting the price of that commodity today. It remains to be seen, however, if that's enough to reverse...   READ MORE 

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REVIEWING THE PHILOSOPHY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -- CHARTS ACT AS LEADING INDICATORS OF FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION -- THIS WEEK'S PLUNGE IN BOND YIELDS SUGGESTS ECONOMY WEAKENING -- FALLING STOCKS TOLD US THE SAME THING A MONTH AGO

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WHY WE LOOK AT CHARTS ... I've written several messages since the start of October about why the sharp stock market drop that month was most likely the start of a major topping process. Previous messages used Elliott Waves, the unusually old age of the current bull market (and...   READ MORE 

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PLUNGING BOND YIELDS SEND SIGNAL OF ECONOMIC WEAKNESS -- S&P 500 FALLS BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE AFTER FAILING TEST OF NOVEMBER HIGH -- BIGGEST LOSERS ARE BANKS, SMALL CAPS, SEMIS, AND TRANSPORTS -- UTILITIES HIT NEW HIGHS AND ARE THE ONLY WINNERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD PLUNGES BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield plunging to the lowest level in three months and falling below its 200-day average for the first time in more than a year. That means that investors are putting a lot of money into Treasury...   READ MORE 

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A Funny Thing May Have Happened To The Secular Reversal In Rates

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Secular Bear Market in Yields * Near-Term Indications of a Decline in Bond Yields * Watch That Stock/Bond Relationship for an Important Signal The Secular Bear Market in Yields Please note that the comments in this article relate to bond yields with maturities of 3-years or longer. They do not...   READ MORE 

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December 2018 Market Roundup with Martin Pring

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The Market Roundup Video For December is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates....   READ MORE