* The Inflation/Deflation ratio * Lagging sectors * Defensive sectors The Inflation/Deflation ratio Last week I charted my Inflation/deflation ratio for the first time in a while and was surprised to see that it had broken to the downside. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the Inflation Ratio (!PRII) consists... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLES TURN UP... Although the stock market continued to climb this week, it's a little surprising to see defensive stocks leading it higher. The four strongest sectors this past week were REITs (+3.3%), healthcare (+2.1%), consumer staples (+1.7%), and utilities (+1.2%). All did... READ MORE
* 3- and 10-year series challenging their secular down trendlines * Three indicators that suggest lower bond yields * The Crunch Chart 3- and 10-year series challenging their secular down trend lines US government bond yields have reached very important resistance, at a time when they are overextended on a long-term momentum basis.... READ MORE
TARIFF THREATS PUSH CHINESE MARKETS LOWER ... Threats of higher tariffs on Chinese imports, combined with Chinese threats of retaliation, put international markets on the defensive today. It started in Asia, spread to Europe, and caused a lower stock opening here. China took the biggest hit. The red line in Chart... READ MORE
This month, the Market Roundup carries a lot of information about how acute the current market position is in globally. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... While media attention seems to be focused on struggling FANG stocks, investors are putting their money elsewhere. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) rising above its June high to reach the highest level in four months. That's a healthy sign for... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS ROLL OVER WHILE SPY TESTS JANUARY HIGH ... Stocks are beginning to look a little toppy. That's especially true of small caps. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) ending the week below its 50-day moving average (blue circle). The RUT has been losing... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND ... The Dow Transports continue to gain altitude. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports trading at the highest level in a month and nearing a challenge of its June high. Yesterday's message showed the TRAN being driven higher by United Parcel Service (UPS)... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS REGAIN 50-DAY AVERAGE... The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been trying to gain altitude after successfully bouncing off its 200-day moving average over the past month. But it's been a choppy advance. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports regaining its 50-day average today after being pulled... READ MORE
* Tuesday was a Key Reversal Day * Breadth fails to confirm Tuesday’s high * Primary uptrend is intact, but will it be threatened? Tuesday was a Key Reversal Day This week the NASDAQ Composite registered a new all-time-high, but the quality of that rally leaves a lot to be desired. That... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE AS BOND PRICES DROP... The upturn in Treasury yields that started on Friday is gaining more momentum today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) climbing 5 basis points to the highest level in more than a month. It's also climbed... READ MORE
THE MAJOR TREND STILL FAVORS HIGHER BOND YIELDS... Yesterday's message showed the 7-10 Year T-bond iShares (IEF) testing important overhead resistance at its spring highs and 200-day moving average, and the impact bond direction usually has on rate-sensitive sectors like financials, utilities, and REITS. Rising rates usually favor... READ MORE
BOND ETF IS TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... Treasury bond prices have been climbing since the middle of May. And they've reached an important chart point. Chart 1 shows the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond iShares (IEF) in the process of testing overhead resistance along their early April/late May peaks,... READ MORE
* Long-term trends rolling over to the downside * A rising dollar does not help gold * Gold Under-performing stocks is not a good thing….for gold * Gold showing bear market characteristics Long-term trends rolling over to the downside The recent sell off in the price of gold has quite frankly surprised me.... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE STILL CLIMBING ... All three of the major U.S. stock indexes are building on last week's gains. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials moving further above 25K and nearing a test of its June high. The Dow is being led higher by Johnson &... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS CHALLENGING MARCH HIGH ... Stocks are ending the week on a positive note. The Nasdaq hit a new record high yesterday. Today's rally is being led by the Dow and S&P 500. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to end above... READ MORE
* A look at the primary and secular trends * Interesting momentum study points to lower bond yields * Bond Net New Highs set to pounce in either direction * Slight softening in confidence hints at lower yields In the June and July editions of my Market Roundup webinars I pointed out the possibility... READ MORE
MOST COMMODITIES ARE IN THE RED ... Commodity prices have been falling sharply over the last month. And Chart 1 shows where most of the selling has taken place. The black line shows the Invesco Commodity Tracking Fund (DBC) still 4% higher since the start of the year. That's... READ MORE
FINANCIALS ARE THE DAY'S STRONGEST SECTOR ... My June 30 message suggested that the market needed more help from financial stocks and industrials if it was going to gain ground during the second half of the year. It's getting help from both today. Let's start... READ MORE
* Technical picture is ripe for a turn, but the main trend is up right now * Tuesday’s outside day could be the first domino * Negative divergences between several energy components Technical picture is ripe for a turn, but the main trend is up right now The oil price remains in... READ MORE
STOCKS START SECOND HALF ON A STRONG NOTE ... After a shaky month of June, stocks started the second half of the year on a positive note. And moving average lines continue to play an important role in that stronger start. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ending the week on... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT... On a day when stocks are rising, and all eleven market sectors are in the black, healthcare is the standout performer. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) rising to the highest level since the middle of March. The bottom box shows the XLV/... READ MORE
MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE STILL HOLDING... Major stock index continue to find support around moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials rising 181 points (+0.75%) to close at 24356. That was enough to put it just above its 200-day moving average. Other stock indexes did even better.... READ MORE
* Copper signals a primary bear market * Copper’s influence on commodities in general * Copper and bond yields It’s often said that Copper has a PHD in economics because it is used widely in many economic sectors. As a result, long-term reversals in its price trend often foreshadow general swings... READ MORE
Here is the link to my current thoughts about the global markets. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Group of Walnut Creek or its... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 GIVE UP SOME OF FRIDAY'S GAINS... First a quick update on Friday's price action. The Dow and S&P 500 gave up some of their gains on Friday afternoon. The Dow gained 55 points (+0.23%) but ended slightly... READ MORE
DOW REGAINS ITS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... Stocks are off to a strong start today. Wednesday's late selloff pushed the Dow below its 200-day average. Chart 1, however, shows the Dow Industrials regaining that long-term support line this morning. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 regaining its... READ MORE
DOWNSIDE REVERSAL DAY ENDS RALLY ATTEMPT ... This morning's market rebound didn't last for long. By day's end the market had suffered a downside reversal day. And some support levels were broken. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling 165 points (-.68%) and ending... READ MORE
* The US on a knife edge * Global markets are also on the edge * Individual regions largely around key support Last week I wrote about the important upside breakout in the US market vis a vis the rest-of-the-world, and a previous article pointed out that the S&P had also... READ MORE
THE DOW IS LEADING TODAY'S RALLY ... After weighing on the rest of the market all month, the Dow is leading today's rebound. And it couldn't come at a better time. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing off chart support near their late-May low... READ MORE
NASDAQ AND TECHS LEAD MARKET LOWER ... Tech stocks and the Nasdaq are leading the rest of the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) falling more than 2% today and bearing down on its 50-day average. The Nasdaq is the weakest of the major market indexes. Falling technology... READ MORE
THE DOW IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT ... The Dow Industrials have been the weakest part of the U.S. stock market over the last month. That's been due primarily to its heavier exposure to stocks with more vulnerability to any Chinese trade tariffs like Boeing and Caterpillar. Those... READ MORE
DOLLAR HAS BIG IMPACT ON GLOBAL MONEY FLOWS ... The direction of the U.S dollar has a big impact on how U.S. stocks perform relative to foreign stocks. As a rule, a stronger dollar favors U.S. stocks, while a weak dollar favors foreign stocks. Chart 1 shows how... READ MORE
* New bull market high for US equity relative action * International markets are breaking down * Commodities lose some upside momentum US equities have been hit hard so far this week, but that’s nothing compared to China, Emerging Markets, Europe and other markets around the globe. As a result, we are... READ MORE
ECB WON'T RAISE RATES FOR ANOTHER YEAR ... The Fed raised its short-term rate by a quarter point yesterday as expected. But it also added a fourth rate hike this year which gave its announcement a more hawkish tilt. That had the immediate effect of boosting Treasury bond yields... READ MORE
* Stocks are rising against gold and that’s bullish * The long-term trend points to gold under-performing stocks * Stock/Gold ratio breaks out from a right-angled broadening formation The price of gold, over the short-term, typically rises and falls on global tensions or lack thereof. Longer-term trends though, are more influenced... READ MORE
* NYSE breakout * Multi-sector breakouts * Green shoots coming through for Europe and emerging markets NYSE breakout Monday’s action has seen the NYSE Composite, the $NYA complete a 4-month reverse head and shoulders pattern. If that breakout holds, and there are few grounds for suspecting that it won’t, it’s... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS REACH FIVE-MONTH HIGH -- WHILE UTILITIES FALL ... The Dow Industrials exceeded their May high last week to reach the highest level in three months. And are higher again today. But today it's the transports' turn to lead the Dow family of stocks higher. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR TURNS UP... Last Friday's message suggested that the healthcare sector appeared to be basing. But it needed a close over its April/May highs to turn its trend from "sideways" to "up". Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) exceeding those... READ MORE
EURO CONTINUES TO REBOUND FROM IMPORTANT CHART SUPPORT ... Global stocks fell on Tuesday May 29 on concerns that a new election in Italy might provide a threat to the eurozone. My message on the following day (May 30) wrote about global stocks starting to recover from that scare. Included in... READ MORE