* Conditions that feed a crash * Rising rates * Emerging markets could be the triggering mechanism * Market breadth not so hot * Is the e-commerce bubble bursting? Conditions that feed a crash October started off as just a continuation of September’s dull price activity. However, knowing that the month of October... READ MORE
RETAILERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... Tuesday's message showed retail stocks under selling pressure. That selling is continuing today. Chart 1 shows the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) nearing a test of its July/August lows and maybe even its 200-day moving average (red line). The Tuesday message... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ACHIEVES MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT... Treasury yields have finally achieved the upside breakout that many of us have been warning about. And it's doing it in pretty decisive fashion. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield surging above its May... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR TUMBLES TO TWO-MONTH LOW... Retail stocks are having a bad chart day. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) falling to the lowest level in two months, and trading below its 50-day average (blue line) by the widest margin... READ MORE
* Dollar Index experiences a false downside breakout * Euro encounters a false upside breakout * Yen completes a bearish multi-year continuation formation * Swiss franc completes a broadening wedge Back in mid-September, I wrote an article where I pointed out that the Dollar was on a knife edge. This view was... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For October is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE HAS BECOME NEW SECTOR LEADER... The three strongest sector leaders since the start of this year have been consumer cyclicals, technology, and healthcare (in that order). But those numbers don't reflect the fact that healthcare has become the strongest market sector over the past three and six... READ MORE
* The connection between lumber and housing starts * What the homebuilding ETF’s are saying Nonfarm payrolls are an economic series that is widely followed by the investment community. However, it’s a coincident indicator, meaning it tells you what is going on now, not what might happen in the future.... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS AT A CRUCIAL CHART POINT ... Treasury bond yields are going through an important test of overhead resistance. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) challenging its May 2018 intra high near 3.11%. After pulling back from its May high, the TNX entered... READ MORE
INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... This past weekend's meeting between OPEC and Russia ended with no agreement to boost output to counter rising oil price. As a result, oil and other energy prices are rising sharply today. Chart 1 shows the Invesco DB Energy Fund... READ MORE
MATERIALS AND FINANCIALS LEAD, TECHS AND UTES LAG: The Dow and S&P 500 hit new records this past week, while the Nasdaq lost some ground. A rebound in chemicals and copper stocks made materials the weekly leader. Financials benefited from a jump in bond yields. That also explains... READ MORE
UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS THREE-YEAR HIGH... The price of crude oil has reached a critical chart juncture. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) in the process of testing its early July peak. A close through that barrier would put the USO at the highest level... READ MORE
THE DOW IS THE LAST TO CLEAR ITS JANUARY HIGH... Another day of rising stock prices has pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 to new records. In the case of the SPX (Chart 1), today's new high is enough to push it back above its... READ MORE
* Long-term dollar technical position * Short-term picture bearish outcome * Short-term picture bullish outcome * Euro * Yen * Swiss franc Long-term dollar technical position I have been primary trend bullish on the dollar for several months. That opinion still stands because the Dollar Index is well above its 12-month... READ MORE
RISING BOND YIELDS HELP FINANCIALS, BUT HURT UTILITIES... This morning's message suggested that this week's upside breakout in bond yields was helping financial stocks which were the day's strongest sector. The green bars on top of Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield... READ MORE
FINANCIALS GET A BOOST FROM RISING BOND YIELDS ... Yesterday's message showed the 10-Year Treasury yield rising to the highest level in four months. That probably explains why financials are leading the market higher today. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) bouncing sharply off its moving... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rising above its twin summer peaks near 3.00% and reaching the highest level in four months. That upside move breaks the TNX out of the three-month sideways pattern that it had... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM SIGNS OF WEAKNESS ... The uptrend in U.S. stocks remains very much intact. However, upside momentum is weakening a bit. Chart 1, for example, shows the S&P 500 trading sideways over the past couple of weeks which is not unusual. The daily MACD lines (which are... READ MORE
* A few thoughts on bubbles * Technical comments on the Dow Jones Internet Commerce Index * China on the brink A few thoughts on bubbles Last week, I pointed out that most of the FAANG stocks remained in uptrends, with the possible exception of Netflix and the confirmed bear market in Facebook.... READ MORE
* NASDAQ breadth data offers conflicting signals * Bullish FAANG Stocks * De-fanged stock NASDAQ breadth data offering conflicting signals We have seen some attention paid to tech stocks as they have corrected in the last week or so. The so called FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Netflix) have... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR IS YEAR'S STRONGEST SECTOR ... Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) trading near a new record. Its 2018 gain of 18% makes it the year's strongest sector. That puts the XLY ahead of technology (16%) and healthcare (12%) for the year. In... READ MORE
OVERBOUGHT TECH SECTOR SEES SOME PROFIT-TAKING ... Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) losing more than 1% today to lead the market lower. Its 9-day RSI line (top chart) had reached overbought territory above 70 suggesting that the XLK was due for a pullback. It's... READ MORE
The MarketRoundup Video For September is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* US Equities versus the world * Stocks versus Commodities * Stocks and bonds * Stocks compared to gold There are lots of seasonal reasons to be bearish on the stock market, such as September being the weakest month and mid-term election years having a downward bias. However, if you compare the S&... READ MORE
STOCKS HAVE A STRONG AUGUST ... U.S. stocks had a strong August with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow Transports hitting record highs. Technology, Consumer Cyclicals, and Healthcare saw the biggest percentage gains and hit record highs. The three weakest sectors were Energy, Materials, and Industrials.... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCK ETFS ARE FINALLY BOUNCING ... Before leaving on vacation on August 15, I expressed concern about the fact that foreign stock ETFs were lagging too far behind the U.S. which could threaten the uptrend in the S&P 500 which was nearing a test of its January... READ MORE
* The longer-term picture argues for lower yields * Deflationary forces gain the upper hand * Bond yields at crucial short-term support * UK Yields in a life or death struggle The longer-term picture argues for lower yields Earlier in the month I wrote an article pointing out that many bond... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK AVERAGES REBOUND SHARPLY... U.S. stock indexes are having an unusually strong day. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 400 points (1.6%) in afternoon trading. The Dow tested its 50-day average yesterday and held. Chart 2 shows the S&P... READ MORE
* Commodities starting to generate some long-term sell signals * Internals and commodity intermarket relationships are deteriorating * Energy has been lagging on the downside but may be ready to play catch up Earlier in the summer I wrote a couple of articles on copper and oil suggesting some short-term vulnerability,... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCK ETFS FALL TO NEW LOWS... Last Thursday's message expressed concern that weakness in foreign stocks could start to weigh on U.S. stocks, especially with the S&P 500 testing major resistance at its January high. That dangerous situation has taken a turn for the... READ MORE
* Last week's test of the highs leaves a lot to be desired * Breadth and momentum indicators fail to confirm * Some international charts not looking so good Last week's test of the highs leaves a lot to be desired If the charts in this article look a... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS TESTING ITS JANUARY HIGH ... The black bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 nearing a test of its January high. That's an important test for it and the rest of the market. A test of a previous high is very... READ MORE
LONG-TERM TREND OF THE DOLLAR IS STILL UP... The direction of the U.S. dollar is important because it influences (or is influenced by) by a lot of other markets. That includes commodities, global interest rates, and global stocks. Dollar direction also influences the relative performance of small cap... READ MORE
FINANCIALS SPDR BREAKS OUT ... Global stocks are having a strong day. Rebounds in foreign developed and emerging markets set the tone for higher trading in the states. All major U.S. indexes are in the black, as are most stock sectors. The strongest sectors are energy, financials, industrials, and materials.... READ MORE
* The Inflation/Deflation ratio * Lagging sectors * Defensive sectors The Inflation/Deflation ratio Last week I charted my Inflation/deflation ratio for the first time in a while and was surprised to see that it had broken to the downside. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the Inflation Ratio (!PRII) consists... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLES TURN UP... Although the stock market continued to climb this week, it's a little surprising to see defensive stocks leading it higher. The four strongest sectors this past week were REITs (+3.3%), healthcare (+2.1%), consumer staples (+1.7%), and utilities (+1.2%). All did... READ MORE
* 3- and 10-year series challenging their secular down trendlines * Three indicators that suggest lower bond yields * The Crunch Chart 3- and 10-year series challenging their secular down trend lines US government bond yields have reached very important resistance, at a time when they are overextended on a long-... READ MORE
TARIFF THREATS PUSH CHINESE MARKETS LOWER ... Threats of higher tariffs on Chinese imports, combined with Chinese threats of retaliation, put international markets on the defensive today. It started in Asia, spread to Europe, and caused a lower stock opening here. China took the biggest hit. The red line in Chart... READ MORE
This month, the Market Roundup carries a lot of information about how acute the current market position is in globally. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... While media attention seems to be focused on struggling FANG stocks, investors are putting their money elsewhere. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) rising above its June high to reach the highest level in four months. That's a healthy sign... READ MORE