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RETAIL SPDR JUMPS TO A FOUR-MONTH HIGH AND HAS BECOME A NEW MARKET LEADER -- RETAIL LEADERS INCLUDE MACYS, UNDER ARMOUR, AND NIKE -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR WHICH HELPS SMALL CAP STOCKS -- RUSSELL 2000 HITS A NEW RECORD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P RETAIL SPDR GOES FROM LAGGARD TO LEADER... A strong April retail report yesterday was credited with helping push bond yields to the highest level in seven years. That's because it showed strong consumer spending which is two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Retail stocks must...
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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO SEVEN-YEAR HIGH -- REGIONAL BANKS GAIN ON HIGHER YIELDS -- WHILE RATE SENSITIVE REITS TUMBLE -- S&P 500 SUFFERS MODEST PULLBACK -- DOLLAR JUMPS TO SIX-MONTH HIGH WHICH HURTS GOLD BUT SUPPORTS SMALL CAPS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TEN-YEAR TREASURY REACHES 3.08%... The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points today to 3.08% which pushed it above its late 2013 peak near 3.03%. The monthly bars in Chart 1 shows the TNX now trading at the highest level since the summer of 2011. That'...
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CHARTS SUGGEST THAT STOCKS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE BETTER -- VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF BREAKS THROUGH RESISTANCE BARRIERS -- FOREIGN STOCK ETFS ARE ALSO BOUNCING -- HONG KONG LEADS EMERGING MARKET REBOUND -- DON'T GET COMPLACENT ON INFLATION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS APPEAR TO HAVE TURNED THE CORNER ... Stocks had a very good week. Major U.S. stock indexes had their best week in two months, with all of them gaining more than 2%. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the market higher. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index...
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This Rally Looks Like It Has Legs
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* When a top is not a top
* The rally is broadly based
* Is the US about to out-perform the world again?
When a top is not a top
Last week I pointed out that several indicators were positioned for a nice rally. However, one of the lingering questions related to...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- TRANSPORTS ARE ALSO NEARING APRIL HIGH -- BANKS AND FINANCIALS SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- % OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE TURNS UP -- COMMON STOCK ONLY AD LINE HITS NEW RECORD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LOOKING FOR A DOW THEORY BUY SIGNAL ... It's always a good sign to see the Dow Industrials and Transports rising together, as they're doing today. The price bars in the upper chart show the Dow Industrials testing their mid-April peak at 24,900. An upside breakout...
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THE NASDAQ 100 IS LEADING THE MARKET HIGHER -- SO IS THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- THE S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX IS BREAKING OUT TO A NEW RECORD -- THE RUSSELL 2000 ISN'T FAR BEHIND -- THAT'S PULLING LARGE CAPS HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ 100 AND TECHNOLOGY SECTOR ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS ... The technical picture for the stock market continues to improve on a lot of fronts. One of them is this week's upside breakout in Nasdaq market. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) climbing above its mid-April high to...
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THREE-YEAR HIGH IN OIL MAKES ENERGY MARKET LEADERS -- S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION SPDR BREAKS OUT -- OCCIDENTAL AND EOG ARE XOP LEADERS -- RISING OIL AND BOND YIELDS EXPLAIN WHY ENERGY SHARES ARE DOING BETTER THAN UTILITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY SHARES HAVE BECOME MARKET LEADERS... This shouldn't come as news to readers of this website. Articles written by myself and my colleagues at Stockcharts.com have been bullish on crude oil and energy stocks since the first quarter. So this is just an update of an ongoing...
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Buy In May And Say Hooray?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Sell in May does not have a great track record
* Technology continues to outpace staples, and that’s bullish
* Technology, consumer cyclicals and REITS are well positioned for a rally
Sell in May does not have a great track record
If there is a seasonal saying that seems ubiquitous at...
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MESSAGE FROM FEBRUARY PUT CURRENT TRIANGULAR FORMATION IN ELLIOTT WAVE CONTEXT -- TRIANGLES NORMALLY HAVE FIVE WAVES WITH THREE PULLBACKS -- THIS PAST WEEK'S PULLBACK WAS THE THIRD ONE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FEBRUARY MESSAGE SUGGESTED THAT TRIANGULAR FORMATION WAS LIKELY... Everyone is talking about the triangular formation that the stock market has been forming over the last three months. It's important that the situation leading up to that formation be understood, as well as its meaning. My February 21 Market...
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STOCKS ARE ENDING THE WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE -- NASDAQ 100 CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SO DOES THE RUSSELL 2000 -- THE THIRD SUCCESSFUL TEST OF 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES IS A GOOD SIGN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS REBOUND OFF 200-DAY LINES... Stocks are ending the week on a strong note. Chart 1 shows the Dow surging more than 300 points after surviving another test of its 200-day average yesterday. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 doing just as well. Both indexes still need to...
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MARKET TEST CONTINUES -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 DIPPED BELOW THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- THAT PUTS THE MARKET IN DANGER OF RESTESTING ITS 2018 LOWS -- INDUSTRIAL AND FINANCIAL SPDRS LED MARKET LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW AND S&P 500 DIP BELOW 200-DAY LINES... Stocks started the day under pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading below its 200-day moving average this morning (before recovering later in the day). A close below the red line would signal that a test of...
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Dollar Breakout Starts To Infect Other Markets
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Dollar Index breaks to the upside
* Dollar sympathy relationships
* The Aussie Dollar close to a mega signal for itself and commodities
Dollar Index breaks to the upside
Chart 1 shows that the Dollar Index falsely broke to the downside at the very beginning of the year. In the last couple...
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DOLLAR INDEX RISES TO NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- THAT'S HURTING U.S. LARGE CAP PERFORMANCE -- THE DOLLAR IS GETTING A BOOST FROM RISING SPREAD BETWEEN US AND GERMAN YIELDS -- THE S&P 500 IS HEADED FOR ANOTHER TEST OF ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR INDEX HITS NEW 2018 HIGH... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) rising today to the highest level since last December. It's also climbed back above its 200-day moving average and a falling trendline extending back to the start of 2017. The UUP may now be...
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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET REBOUND -- FACEBOOK LEADS TECH SECTOR HIGHER -- VISA, HOME DEPOT, AND MICROSOFT ARE DOW LEADERS -- S&P 500 SURVIVES ANOTHER TEST OF ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- RISING DOLLAR CAUSES PULLBACK IN GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET REBOUND... Stocks are enjoying a rebound today off chart support near 200-day moving average lines. And the Nasdaq is leading it higher. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rising 2% today to outpace other stock indexes. After finding support from just above its 200-day...
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Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad 3%?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Technical position for yields still looks bullish
* International rates look higher
* Dollar breaks out, but will it hold?
* Finely balanced Gold picture needs some guidance from the Dollar
If you have punched up the symbol $TNX, you will know that the 10-year yield has recently hit 3%. Chances are that...
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INDUSTRIALS, MATERIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY PULL MARKET LOWER AS TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TOUCHES 3% -- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE ALSO HEADING INTO ANOTHER TEST OF SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR ETFS TAKE A BIG HIT ... The three stock ETFs shown below are leading the stock market sharply lower. Chart 1 shows the Industrial SPDR (XLI) losing more than 3% and once again threatening its 200-day average. Caterpillar (CAT) is one of its biggest losers with a drop of -6%...
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Is The Breakout In The Dollar For Real?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The primary trend
* The short-term picture
* The Dollar, Copper and Gold
The Dollar Index showed some green shoots at the end of the week that might lead to greater things. That’s important in its own right, but since the dollar often moves inversely with commodities and gold its direction...
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BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS TESTING ITS 2018 HIGH -- AN UPSIDE COMMODITY BREAKOUT WOULD SIGNAL HIGHER INFLATION -- RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE PUSHING BOND YIELDS HIGHER -- TEN YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE HEADING TO 3%
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT... This week's surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That's because rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Rising commodity prices have a lot of intermarket implications. For one thing, rising...
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CSX AND UNITED AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- AND BOOST THE INDUSTRIAL SPDR -- FREEPORT MCMORAN LEADS MATERIALS HIGHER -- SIX-YEAR HIGH IN ALUMINUM PUSHES ALCOA TO NEW RECORD -- ENERGY AND METALS LEAD COMMODITIES SHARPLY HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORTS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Monday's message showed the Dow Transports rising above their 50-day average to turn their trend higher. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports on the verge of breaking through overhead resistance formed in late February and mid-March. While rails and truckers (and FedEx) were Monday&...
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More Indicators Are Flashing The All Clear
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled
* Breath indicators are firming up
Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled
Last week I wrote that many of the short-term indicators were flashing buy signals and that we should expect the US equity market to work its way higher. I...
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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER ALONG WITH THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- TWITTER AND ALPHABET LEAD INTERNET STOCKS HIGHER -- INTEL AND MICROSOFT NEAR RECORD HIGHS -- THE DOW CLEARS 50-DAY LINE AND DOWN TRENDLINE -- ITS P&F CHART SHOWS AN UPTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER ... Stocks are having another good chart day. All major stock indexes are trading well above their 50-day averages. The Nasdaq market is in the lead. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gapping over its 50-day line today. The rising red line is a...
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DOW TRANSPORTS CLEAR THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGE -- JB HUNT AND CH ROBINSON ARE LEADING -- KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, CSX, AND UNION PACIFIC ARE ALSO STRONG -- FEDEX CLEARS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ARE TESTING THEIR 50-DAY LINE AGAIN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW TRANSPORTS EXCEED 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Stocks are opening the new week on a positive note. Transportation stocks are having an especially strong day. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Transports climbing 2% this morning. More importantly, the $TRAN is trading above its 50-day moving average (blue circle)...
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DJIA Engulfing Pattern Suggests A Pause Before Higher Prices
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* A small correction ahead?
* Short-term oscillators are primed for a rally
* Bitcoin is breaking out again
A small correction ahead?
If you want to be bullish, Friday’s technical action was somewhat disappointing. That’s because it represented an engulfing pattern for the DIA, as shown in Chart 1.
Chart...
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BANKS SUFFER BIG SELLOFF AFTER REPORTING STRONG EARNINGS -- JP MORGAN CHASE SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL DAY -- FINANCIAL SPDR FAILS TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- STOCK INDEXES PULL BACK FROM 50-DAY AVERAGES BUT ON LIGHTEST TRADING OF THE YEAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
JP MORGAN CHASE SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL ON FRIDAY... Friday had to be a very discouraging day for investors in bank stocks. After reporting first quarter earnings that were much higher than expected, bank stocks opened higher before plunging in heavy trading. Chart 1 shows JP Morgan Chase (JPM) suffering a...
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BOND YIELDS MAY BE TURNING BACK UP AGAIN -- THAT'S BOOSTING FINANCIALS AND HURTING UTILITIES -- JP MORGAN AND GOLDMAN SACHS CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES -- BOEING AND INTEL LEAD DOW HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TEN YEAR BOND YIELD MAY BE TURNING BACK UP AGAIN... After hitting a four-year high during January, the 10-Year Treasury Yield saw a modest decline from mid-February until the end of March. Some of that decline in yields was probably based on safe haven buying of Treasuries during the first...
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Small Caps May Be Breaking Out But Not All Are Created Equal
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The technical position of small caps in general
* Small cap sectors
The technical position of small caps in general
Small caps, as represented by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), have outperformed the market since late March and have now broken out in their own right. We can see this from...
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COMMODITY PRICES ARE RISING -- CRUDE OIL BREAKOUT IS GIVING A BIG BOOST TO ENERGY SHARES -- SMALL CAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- S&P 500 STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR RESISTANCE -- STRENGTH IN HIGH YIELD BONDS IS ANOTHER POSITIVE SIGN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CRUDE OIL LEADS BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX HIGHER... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Bloomberg Commodity Index rising to the highest level in two months. The index recently bounced off its 200-day moving average (red line) and a rising trendline drawn under its June/December lows. The commodity rally...
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Identifying The Tapestry Of A Market Top
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The importance of identifying the direction of the primary trend
* The Shiller P/E
* The four-way test
The importance of identifying the primary trend
Sometimes it’s a good idea to step back from the everyday trading of daily charts and short-term activity and look at the big picture. If...
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MARKETS GET TRUMPED FOR THE THIRD TIME -- WEEK'S STOCK GAINS ARE WIPED OUT ON FRIDAY AS TARIFF THREATS INTENSIFY -- ANOTHER TEST OF UNDERLYING CHART SUPPORT NOW APPEARS LIKELY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THIRD TARIFF THREAT SINKS MARKET... Just when it looked like the stock market was about to recover from the first two rounds of tariff threats, stocks were hit with a third and bigger $100 billion tariff threat after the close on Thursday. As a result, stock market indexes fell more...
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REBOUND IN BOEING PUTS THE DOW IN THE LEAD FOR THE DAY -- THE DOW CLEARS INITIAL RESISTANCE BARRIER -- ENERGY AND MATERIAL SPDRS REGAIN 200-DAY AVERAGES -- FREEPORT MCMORAN AND MARATHON OIL HAVE A STRONG DAY -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOEING BOUNCES OFF 100-DAY AVERAGE ... The Dow Industrials led today's follow-through rally in stocks. Today's bounce in Boeing is a big reason why. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the aerospace giant gaining 2.74% today after bouncing off its 100-day moving average (green line)...
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STOCKS SURGE 3% AFTER A WEAK OPEN -- AND 200-DAY AVERAGES HOLD ONCE AGAIN -- SMALL CAPS ARE HOLDING UP BETTER THAN LARGE CAPS -- HOMEBUILDERS AND RETAILERS MADE CYCLICALS THE DAY'S STRONGEST SECTOR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS SCORE BIG UPSIDE REVERSAL FROM 200-DAY AVERAGES ... The stock market staged an impressive upside turnaround today. After opening 500 points lower this morning, the Dow Industrials ended the day 230 points (0.96%) higher. That's a gain of more than 700 points from its opening price. Stock...
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Bottoms Up Part II
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Positive breadth characteristics
* VIX is less fearful
* Short-term oscillators starting to get extremely oversold
* How about trend?
Last week I suggested that the market may be in the process of forming a double bottom. This week we take that possibility one step forward. Whenever the non-financial cable networks run a...
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Market Round Up April 2018
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Here is a link to the April edition of Market Round Up for 2018.
Martin-Pring-Market-Roundup-April-2018 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.
Good luck and good charting,
Martin J. Pring
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring...
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STOCKS START THE SECOND QUARTER UNDER HEAVY SELLING -- 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEING THREATENED -- ALL MARKET SECTORS END IN THE RED -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ARE AMONG BIGGEST LOSERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES RETEST UNDERLYING SUPPORT LEVELS ... Stocks started the second quarter under heavy selling pressure. Some major stock indexes saw losses in excess of 2%. Today's selling is resulting in retests of important underlying support levels. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials touching its 200-day average but...
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THE FIRST QUARTER WASN'T THAT BAD FOR STOCKS -- THE VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF LOST LESS THAN 1% -- SOCIAL MEDIA ETF IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT -- SO IS AN ETF OF BANK STOCKS -- GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF BOUNCES OFF ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF LOST LESS THAN 1%... Despite all the volatility during the first quarter, the first three months of 2018 weren't really that bad. The Dow Industrials were the biggest losers with a quarterly drop of -2.5%. The broader S&P 500 Index...
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Bottoms Up?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Is the market forming a double bottom?
* Short-term indicators suggest the bottoming process is nearly complete
Sometimes a technical event or characteristic becomes very popular very quickly as a lot of people write and blog about them. Usually, the expectations based on those forecasts are not met. For example, every...
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MAJOR US STOCK INDEXES ARE TRYING TO STABILIZE NEAR 200-DAY AVERAGES AND FEBRUARY LOW -- TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ARE WEIGHING ON THE MARKET -- ESPECIALLY FAANG STOCKS -- BUT FACEBOOK LOOKS OVERSOLD WHILE ALPHABET IS TESTING CHART SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW AND THE S&P 500 ARE RETESTING 200-DAY LINES ... The Dow and the S&P 500 are still in the process of retesting underlying support levels near their 200-day averages and February lows. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials retesting its February intra-day low at 23,400...
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THE ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX IS HEADED FOR A TEST OF FEBRUARY SUPPORT -- SO IS THE S&P 500 WHICH IS ALSO TESTING A TRENDLINE EXTENDING BACK TO THE START OF 2016 -- FINANCIALS AND TECHNOLOGY ARE THE BIGGEST SECTOR LOSERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WORLD STOCK INDEX HEADED FOR A TEST OF ITS FEBRUARY LOW AND ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... Stocks around the world had a terrible week. Foreign stocks fell along with the U.S. That's not unusual since global stocks become tightly correlated on the way down. Selling in Chinese stocks...
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NYSE Composite Draws Closer To Its 200-day And 12-month Moving Averages
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Breadth is more of a positive than a negative factor
* Global breadth is also positive
* Dow Diffusion Indicator close to a buy signal
* Consumer cyclicals versus technology
Since early February, the US equity market, in the form of the NYSE Composite, has been in a trading range. This is flagged...
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DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK TRENDLINE SUPPORT -- NASDAQ 100 FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA STOCKS CONTINUE TO LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR LOWER -- TENCENT HOLDINGS REFLECTS HEAVY SELLING IN CHINESE STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. STOCK INDEXES BREAK SUPPORT LINES ... Major U.S. stock indexes are under heavy selling today and are breaking some important support lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below a trendline extending back to early February. That signals a possible drop back to its February intra-day low...
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