The Dollar Index has been selling off sharply in the last few weeks and has now reached critical support in the form of the lower part of its recent trading range. The big question is whether it will break below the range or extend it in any way. Chart 1... READ MORE
Interest rates have been cut -- what now? Larry presents his thoughts in this edition of the Family Gathering video. In this month's Family Gathering video, Larry begins with what he calls the "Fed Cut Discount Rate" and what it means. What does history make of... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Daylight Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show, which will include both a presentation from Larry and a viewer Q&A session, will be recorded and posted online for those... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom on Thursday, September 19 at 2:00pm Eastern Daylight Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market... READ MORE
Most of the primary trend indicators I follow are in a bullish mode and show few signs of flagging. That said, some intermarket relationships, which help to indicate whether the environment is risk-off or risk-on, have started to move in a risk-off direction. That's usually a bearish omen... READ MORE
Every business cycle has an inflationary and deflationary part, and it's very important for both traders and investors at least to try to have some understanding which has the upper hand at any particular point in time. For example, when the economy is in a slowdown or recessionary... READ MORE
Let's get this out of the way... In our last Family Gathering, I announced I am doing my best to retire. That means we will have our September Family Gathering, the October newsletter and mid-month Family Gathering. After that, "Focus on Stocks" is all over. I... READ MORE
Last June, I wrote an articlewhose title was more or less the same as this one. At the time, the Index was bumping up against the top of a major trading range, and it looked very much as if it was about to experience an upside breakout. My conclusion was... READ MORE
What to make of the market as we near the end of August? Larry presents his thoughts in this edition of the Family Gathering video. In this month's Family Gathering video, Larry begins by presenting a new way of forecasting for Crude Oil. After that, he follows up... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Daylight Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show, which will include both a presentation from Larry and a viewer Q&A session, will be recorded and posted online for those... READ MORE
It's not very often that any market experiences a 10-year breakout, let alone a 45-year one. That, however, is what Chart 1 says is about to materialize for the inflation-adjusted gold price. Since the chart is based on monthly data, we will not know for sure until the... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom on Thursday, August 22 at 2:00pm Eastern Daylight Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market... READ MORE
Last Monday, markets around the world experienced a sharp drop as the unwinding of yen carry trades followed the previous Friday's response to a weak employment report. The speed and sharpness of the equity sell-off got the attention of the general-purpose media and just about everyone else. From... READ MORE
In my last newsletter,I discussed cycle projections for the S&P 500, i.e., a rally and then down into a mid-September low. The recent price action in the stock market may have many of you wondering when to open long equity positions. My cycle work suggests we... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Small-cap stocks look like they have lost momentum. * Market breadth in small-cap stocks appears to be weakening. * The Utilities sector seems to be gaining momentum. Just so we are on the same page, I looked up "Great Rotation" on Microsoft's Copilot and came away... READ MORE
It looks to me like it's time for the bond market to take a breather, if not have a pullback from now into late October. We can sum it up with the cycle projections from Chart 1. I have highlighted, in red, the down leg of the 450-day... READ MORE
The bond market experienced a secular bear between 1981 and the spring of 2020. Chart 1 offers three reasons why it has since reversed and given way to a secular uptrend or possibly multi-year trading range. The first piece of evidence comes from violating the multi-decade trendline. Second, the price... READ MORE
Most weekends, I run through a chart list featuring weekly bars and candlesticks of bonds, stocks and commodities to see if any one or two bar patterns or candlestick formations have developed. Last week produced a crop of bearish messages from the major averages and some sectors. Before you rush... READ MORE
What stocks right now does Larry have his eye on? Which ones is he saying "see you later... for now"? And which ones does he not like very much at all? In this month's Family Gathering video, Larry presents an in-depth discussion on the patterns we... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Daylight Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show, which will include both a presentation from Larry and a viewer Q&A session, will be recorded and posted online for those... READ MORE
A silver cross occurs when a 20-day MA crosses above its 50-day counterpart. While far from perfect, such signals enable you to ride a persistent trend. However, like all trend following techniques, problems can occur in a trading range environment. Chart 1 features two recent buy signals for the S&... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom on Thursday, July 18 at 2:00pm Eastern Daylight Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market... READ MORE
The legendary technician Edson Gould had a rule that, after three discount rate hikes, the stock market would be likely to stumble. That doesn't apply to emerging markets, but it did make a catchy headline. What is relevant to the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) is that,... READ MORE
Residential housing is not important for its size relative to GDP, which, according to Copilot, is about 3-5%. Rather, due to its interest rate sensitivity, housing is significant because it is the first sector of the economy to turn at the end of a recession, and the first to turn... READ MORE
Historically, July has seen stock prices move higher almost 80% of the time, cementing this in our trader's notebook as a time to stay home and trade. Others can vacation this month! Chart 1 is my true seasonal pattern for the Dow for the last 124 years. It... READ MORE
The Transportation Sector has been one of the weaker brethren of late. That's important, as this market average forms part of the Dow Theory, which many observers believe is currently signaling a bear market. However, back in January, I wrote a piece on the Dow Theorythat came to... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the Dollar Index has been in a trading range since the start of 2023. Its sheer size indicates the ultimate breakout could be followed by a sizeable move in either direction. It is also likely to have important implications for many different markets and asset classes.... READ MORE
June is here! Will it be bloom or gloom for the stock market? In this month's Family Gathering video, Larry examines the current averages in the market and what the advance-decline line is telling us. He explains the Trading Day of the Month (TDOM) concept and how you... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Daylight Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show, which will include both a presentation from Larry and a viewer Q&A session, will be recorded and posted online for those... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom on Tuesday, June 18 at 2:00pm Eastern Daylight Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market... READ MORE
In most cycles, central banks around the world raise and lower short-term interest rates in a rough synchronization. Last week, the European and Canadian central banks began lowering their rates, and the British are expected to follow suit this week. Most observers of the US expect the Federal Reserve to... READ MORE
The Canadian and Aussie dollars have been confined between two converging trendlines since the beginning of the century, as we can see from Chart 1. The moment of truth appears to be close at hand, as both are approaching the apex of a giant potential symmetrical triangle. One usually consistent... READ MORE
A note to the Cassandras who are now out in full force... Led by "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki's warning of "Be careful, it's the biggest crash in world history," the bears have come out of their winter caves. "We... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an upbeat article on the US stock market opining that the correction was over. I still think that's the case, but I do have to note that a bearish outside bar formed on both the S&P and NASDAQ on... READ MORE
It's rare when you see a multi-year breakout take place, but, when several materialize more or less at the same time, that should really get our attention. That's not simply because of the opportunities being presented, but also because several simultaneous breakouts indicate a broader participation... READ MORE
Certainty is needed for a trader's actions. Good judgment comes from experience, and experience is gained from poor judgment. The key to improving your trading is to really, truly study the losing trades. In this month's Family Gathering video, Larry presents PPI numbers for historical buy... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Daylight Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show, which will include both a presentation from Larry and a viewer Q&A session, will be recorded and posted online for those... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom on Thursday, May 16 at 2:00pm Eastern Daylight Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market... READ MORE
Last February, I wrote an article on emerging markets, using the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) as my benchmark. I pointed out that this sector was close, but had not quite broken out to the upside. Now it has, and the outlook is favorable for at least a 4-6-month... READ MORE
The magnitude and duration of corrections are largely determined by the direction of the prevailing primary trend. If it's bearish, they tend to be more severe and last longer. In a bull market, it's just the opposite, as they are generally short and sweet, if you... READ MORE