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CRUDE OIL IS NEARING ANOTHER THREE-YEAR HIGH AND BOOSTING ENERGY SHARES -- ENERGY SPDR IS BOUNCING OFF MAJOR TRENDLINE SUPPORT AND 200-DAY AVERAGE -- OIL SERVICE ETF IS EVEN STRONGER -- ENERGY LEADERS ARE TRANSOCEAN, NATIONAL OILWELL, AND HESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

PRICE OF OIL NEARS THREE-YEAR HIGH... WTIC Light Crude is trading more than 2% higher today near $65. The weekly bars in Chart 1 (plotted through yesterday) show Light Crude Oil also nearing another three-year high. Brent crude is in a similar situation. Chart 2 shows the United States Oil...   READ MORE 

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NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE LEADS TO TECH SELLING -- FACEBOOK FALLS TO SIX-MONTH LOW AND LEADS INTERNET GROUP LOWER -- TECH SECTOR MAY BE VULNERABLE TO MORE PROFIT-TAKING -- DOW INDUSTRIALS AND S&P 500 ARE TESTING POTENTIAL TRENDLINE SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVER-EXTENDED TECHNOLOGY SPDR TURNS LOWER... Last Wednesday's message showed the technology sector looking over-extended and vulnerable to profit-taking. So this week's tech selling wasn't too much of a surprise. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) falling yesterday in heavy...   READ MORE 

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Bitcoin Is A Mania But Is It Over?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Longer-term perspective * Short-term Charts * Dollar trying to break to the upside Longer-term perspective At its December 18 peak of $18,723, the Bitcoin Index ($NYXBT) outstripped all other bull markets in recorded history. By this yardstick alone this phenomenon qualifies as a mania. So far, the post high, low water...   READ MORE 

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THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- BUT MAY BE FORMING ASCENDING TRIANGLE -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS MAY BE FORMING BULLISH TRIANGLE OF ITS OWN -- THAT WOULD FIT INTO ELLIOTT WAVE FOUR CONSOLIDATION PATTERN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW TRANSPORT UPTREND IS ALSO STALLED AT 50-DAY AVERAGE... Yesterday's message showed the Dow Industrials falling below their 50-day average. Today's message shows the Dow Transports doing the same. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Jones Transportation Average backing off from a test...   READ MORE 

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STOCK UPTREND WEAKENS -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR RUNS INTO RESISTANCE AT 50-DAY LINE -- BOEING LEADS AEROSPACE LOWER -- ALUMINUM AND CHEMICALS PULL MATERIALS SPDR LOWER -- DOW INDUSTRIALS FALL BELOW 50-DAY LINE AS S&P 500 STALLS AT FEBRUARY HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOEING LEADS INDUSTRIAL SPDR BELOW ITS 50-DAY LINE... The stock rally is starting to lose some upside momentum. That's partially because some market sectors are running into resistance at their 50-day moving average. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) slipping back below...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RALLY ON STRONG JOBS REPORT WITH SMALLER WAGE GAIN -- S&P 500 CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD -- SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES ARE LEADING THE QQQ INTO RECORD TERRITORY -- LAM RESEARCH AND INTEL HIT NEW RECORDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STRONG EMPLOYMENT REPORT BOOSTS STOCKS... A blockbuster employment report this morning is giving a big boost to stocks which were already in rally mode going into the report on easing tariff concerns from yesterday afternoon. U.S. employers added 313,000 jobs in February which was way above estimates and...   READ MORE 

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What Will It Take To Trigger A Bull Market In The Dollar?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The indicated main trend is currently bearish * What a more broadly-based Dollar index is saying * Swiss Franc completes a small top * Copper and the Dollar The indicated main trend is currently bearish The Dollar Index peaked in November 2016 and has so far bottomed in January of this year. If...   READ MORE 

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LATE STOCK BUYING SHOWS POSITIVE REACTION TO TARIFF SPEECH -- S&P 500 CLOSES AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- FIVE-MINUTE PRICE BARS SHOW STRONG BUYING IN FINAL MINUTES -- THE VIX NEARS TWO-WEEK LOW -- THE NASDAQ MARKET IS HEADED FOR ANOTHER TEST OF 2018 HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 CLOSES JUST SHY OF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE... Late buying today pushed stocks higher and on rising volume. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 rising 12 points today (0.46%) to end at 2738 which is one point shy of its...   READ MORE 

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SMALLER STOCKS ARE LEADING THE MARKET HIGHER -- S&P SMALL AND MIDCAP INDEXES NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- THE S&P 500 SHOULD FOLLOW THEM HIGHER -- NASDAQ STRENGTH IS ALSO A POSITIVE SIGN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES... Last Wednesday's message pointed out that smaller stocks were leading large caps lower. Small and midcap indexes had fallen below their 50-day average which increased odds that the S&P 500 would do the same, which it did. Today,...   READ MORE 

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GRAIN PRICES ARE FINALLY MOVING HIGHER -- A WEAKER DOLLAR IS INCREASING DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- COTTON ALSO APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING -- RISING PRICES COULD BOOST FOOD AND CLOTHING COSTS -- TODAY'S DOLLAR DROP IS BOOSTING GOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GRAIN PRICES ARE LEADING COMMODITY RALLY THIS YEAR ... My market message from January 6 expressed the view that commodity prices appeared to be bottoming, which could increase inflation pressures later this year. It also suggested that the chart of the CRB Index might actually be understating the inflation threat. That...   READ MORE 

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They Just Built A New Wall Of Worry For The US Stock Market

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two bullish piercing white lines * A sector spread that predicts new stock market highs * Two sectors affected by the proposed tariffs Last week I wrote that the indicators seemed to be calling for a test of the early February low. My expectation was for a sharper and more prolonged decline...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 BOUNCE IMPRESSIVELY OFF 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- NASDAQ RISES FURTHER ABOVE 50-DAY LINE -- ALL SECTORS ARE IN THE GREEN -- WHILE THE VIX INDEX FALLS BACK BELOW 20 -- BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX REGAINS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF 100-DAY AVERAGE... Last Friday's midday message showed the S&P 500 testing chart support near 2640 and in a short-term oversold condition (black line). After rallying off that support level on Friday afternoon, stocks built on those gains today. The daily...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REMAIN ON THE DEFENSIVE -- QQQ IS TESTING 50-DAY AVERAGE -- WHILE S&P 500 TESTS SHORT-TERM SUPPORT NEAR 2640 -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD -- JAPANESE YEN SURGES TO 15-MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POWERSHARES QQQ IS TESTING 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Wednesday's message showed the PowerShares QQQ (representing the Nasdaq 100 Index) pulling back from overhead resistance at its late January peak. That suggested profit-taking in the technology-dominated QQQ and the rest of the market. It also suggested a retest of its 50-day...   READ MORE 

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Market Round Up Monthly Video 2018-03-01 With Martin Pring

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Here is the market analysis reviewing the current market outlook. There is a host of information on commodities, bonds and US equities. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-03-01 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Chartcon 2018 registration is now open! Registration kicked off today, February 1st! Chartcon 2018! Follow the link...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS LEAD LARGE CAPS LOWER -- THE S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF CLOSING BELOW ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHES ENERGY SECTOR INTO ANOTHER TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P SMALL AND MIDCAP INDEXES FAIL TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGE... The pullback in stocks that started yesterday is continuing today. And it's being led down by smaller stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) falling decisively back its blue 50-day...   READ MORE 

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US Equities Emerging from The February Shakeout As A Global Leader Again

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* US is breaking out relative to the world * Growth breaks decisively against value * Blue Tuesday US is breaking out relative to the world Chart 1 shows that the ratio between the US stock market, in the form of the S&P Composite ($SPX), and the World Index (ACWI) often...   READ MORE 

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JUMP IN BOND YIELDS PUTS STOCK REBOUND IN JEOPARDY -- QQQ IS PULLING BACK FROM TEST OF OLD HIGH -- S&P 500 LOOKS OVEREXTENDED -- BOUNCING DOLLAR WEAKENS GOLD -- EMERGING MARKETS ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING PROFIT-TAKING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD IS BACK OVER 2.90% ... After a modest pullback that started last Thursday, bond yields are climbing again today. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) jumping 6 basis points to 2.92% and within striking distance of its four-year high reached...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REGAIN THREE-QUARTERS OF FEBRUARY SELLOFF -- QQQ NEARS TEST OF OLD HIGH -- AMERICAN AIRLINES AND UNION PACIFIC LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- COMMODITIES ARE ALSO RECOVERING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES GAIN MORE GROUND -- QQQ NEARS TEST OF OLD HIGH... U.S. stock indexes continue to gain more ground today and have now regained about three-quarters of their recent correction. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 trading at three-week highs after...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION -- THAT'S GIVING A BOOST TO BOND PROXIES LIKE UTILITIES, REITS, AND TELECOM -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE BOUNCING BACK WHICH IS GOOD FOR STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD IS WEAKENING ... The uptrend in bond yields is starting to weaken. The daily bar in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield falling 5 basis points to 2.87%. More importantly, its 14-day RSI line overlaid over the price bars is falling to the lowest level since...   READ MORE 

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Emerging From The Correction The Best And Worst Looking Sectors

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* General market thoughts * Sectors under pressure * Stronger looking sectors General market thoughts My thoughts on the recent correction is that we have likely seen the low, that more ranging action is likely, probably involving a test of that low, but that eventually US equities will see new bull market highs....   READ MORE 

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STRONG TECH SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET -- FINANCIALS, CYCLICALS, AND INDUSTRIALS ARE ALSO LEADING -- SMALLS CAPS LOOK STRONGER -- AMERICAN AIRLINES AND KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN LEAD TRANPORTS HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET ... My last sentence from yesterday's message was that the stock market was unlikely to suffer any serious short-term damage as long as technology stocks kept rising. That's because technology is such a big part of the stock market. And they&...   READ MORE 

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SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD THE NASDAQ AND TECHNOLOGY SECTOR HIGHER TODAY -- CHIP LEADERS INCLUDE APPLIED MATERIALS, KLA-TENCOR, AND LAM RESEARCH -- MOST OTHER SECTORS ARE IN THE RED -- DOW AND S&P 500 ARE STRUGGLING AT MOVING AVERAGE LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES HAVE A STRONG DAY... Semiconductor stocks are the strongest part of the market today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) trading more than 2% higher today and moving further above its 50-day moving average. The SOXX has also risen above its 20-day moving average (green line)...   READ MORE 

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Some Equity Markets Showing Signs Of Long-term Vulnerability

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows * European equities are facing a big challenge * Shanghai starting to look sick Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows Last week I suggested that the S&P had reached a resistance zone following its bounce from the early February panic...   READ MORE 

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RECENT PULLBACK IN COMMODITIES IS LIKELY TIED TO STOCK CORRECTION -- COPPER AND OIL ARE STILL IN UPTRENDS -- AND GOLD MAY BE NEAR A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- GOLD MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THIS WEEK'S BULLISH BREAKOUT IN THE YEN TO A FIFTEEN MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITY PULLBACK IS TIED TO STOCKS... My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place...   READ MORE 

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Time For Some Temporary Grief In The Equity Market?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed * S&P is at short-term resistance * Some reliable short-term indicators not quite there yet * Yen breaks out from a large base Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed After five straight up days since the February 9 intraday...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RECOVER FROM HIGHER INFLATION REPORT -- NASDAQ 100 IS FIRST INDEX TO REACH 50-DAY LINE -- BANK ETF GAINS MORE GROUND ON RISING YIELDS -- WHILE UTILITIES FALL -- JUMP IN GOLD PUTS IT CLOSER TO MAJOR UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- VIX DROPS TO 20

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES BOUNCE BACK FROM EARLY SELLING ... January's CPI report came in higher than expected and caused stocks to open lower. The headline reading of 2.1% and core reading (excluding food and energy) of 1.8% were higher than economists were expecting. After opening lower, stocks...   READ MORE 

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REGIONAL BANK SPDR EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- LEADERS INCLUDE M&T BANK, BB&T CORP, AND REGIONS FINANCIAL -- JPM IS ANOTHER BANK LEADER -- TRANSPORTS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- WEAK DOLLAR BOOSTS METALS -- STOCK REBOUND STILL HAS FURTHER TO GO

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

REGIONAL BANK SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... One of the simplest ways to determine which stock groups, or individual stocks, are leading the market higher is to look for the ones that are clearing their 50-day moving averages first (or stayed above them). Yesterday's message showed the Consumer Discretionary...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS ARE BUILDING ON FRIDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL FROM 200-DAY AVERAGE -- THE NEXT TEST WILL COME AT 50-DAY AVERAGES -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCK INDEXES ALSO BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKETS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM 200-DAY LINE... Stocks continue to build on the upside reversal that took place on Friday from 200-day moving averages. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 gaining enough ground today to climb back over its 100-day line (green line). The...   READ MORE 

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US Stock Traders Get Out Their Hammers

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Bottoms are being “hammered” out * VIX is quietening down * Net new highs offer green shoots * NASDAQ Chart is turning Bottoms are being “hammered” out It has certainly been a wild ride this week, but Friday saw several major indexes trace out a Japanese candlestick pattern known as a “hammer”. This...   READ MORE 

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AN OVERSOLD S&P 500 IS TRYING TO STABILIZE AT ITS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE -- THE VIX INDEX IS PULLING BACK FROM RESISTANCE ABOVE THE 40 LEVEL FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS WEEK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 IS TESTING ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... The downside correction that started a week ago pushed stock prices lower again today. But they're trying to stabilize in afternoon trading. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 trying to find support at its 200-day moving average....   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES ARE RETESTING INTRA-DAY SUPPORT LEVELS FORMED ON TUESDAY -- THE REBOUND IN THE VIX IS MUCH WEAKER THAN ON TUESDAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE RETESTING TUESDAY'S INTRA-DAY LOWS... Stocks are falling sharply again today and are in the process of retesting intra-day support levels formed on Tuesday. That's an important test. The 10-minute bars in Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials testing lows formed Tuesday between...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS CLIMB BACK NEAR RECENT HIGH -- A BOUNCING DOLLAR IS PUSHING COMMODITIES LOWER -- THE RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX IS BOUNCING OFF ITS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE -- THE S&P 500 SLIPS INTO THE RED NEAR THE CLOSE IN HEAVIER TRADING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS ANOTHER FOUR-YEAR HIGH ... A plunging stock market earlier in the week caused some safe-haven bond buying which caused bond yields to weaken. Chart 1, however, shows the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing 7 basis points today and very close to another four-year high. The recent upside breakout...   READ MORE 

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Evidence of A Bottom Looking Stronger

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Bullish piercing white line * Bullish volume * VIX signaling volatility retreating again Bullish piercing white line Tuesday’s market action suggests that the selling squall is over, at least for the time being. That’s because a couple of indexes experienced a bullish candlestick pattern known as a piercing white line....   READ MORE 

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STOCKS ACHIEVE UPSIDE REVERSAL -- S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF TRENDLINE SUPPORT AND 100-DAY AVERAGE -- THE VIX REVERSES LOWER AFTER FAILING TO STAY OVER 40 LEVEL -- APPLE AND DOWDUPONT BOUNCE SHARPLY OFF 200-DAY AVERAGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 REBOUNDS OFF CHART SUPPORT... After opening sharply lower, stocks achieved an upside reversal on heavier volume than yesterday. And stocks bounced off a couple of important support levels. Yesterday's message showed a rising trendline extending back to late 2016 near the 2600 level. The...   READ MORE 

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What To Look For Next

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Primary trend indicators are still bullish * Short-term indicators still overbought * Very short-term indicators already at extremes * Bonds bottoming short-term? I have been saying for some time that the market’s primary trend is a bullish one and that we should not get hung up with short-term corrections. That theory is...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS HAVE WORST DAY IN YEARS -- 50-DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BROKEN -- S&P 500 APPEARS HEADED FOR RETEST OF RISING TRENDLINE EXTENDING BACK TO 2016 -- VIX DOUBLES TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN TWO YEARS -- LATE RALLY IN MAJOR STOCK INDEXES FADES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE... Stocks had a terrible day today. Major stock indexes in the U.S. lost about 4% in one day. And some chart damage was done. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 falling well below its 50-day...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS ARE RATTLING STOCK HOLDERS -- TEN YEAR YIELD REACHES FOUR-YEAR HIGH -- BOND YIELDS ARE RISING FASTER THAN STOCKS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BULL MARKET STARTED -- THE VIX INDEX SURGES TO FIFTEEN-MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS ARE CLIMBING ... Bond yields are rising a lot faster than a lot of people expected. And that's starting to worry stock holders. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 30-Year Treasury Yield rising over 3.00% for the first time since last March and heading...   READ MORE 

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Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-02-01

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Big changes in all four areas * Equities * Commodities * Currencies * Bonds This months market roundup has a lot of charts that are breaking out on long term relative strength breakouts. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-02-01 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Chartcon 2018 registration is now open! Registration kicked off today,...   READ MORE 

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Pause In An Ongoing Uptrend?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The underlying trend of improving confidence continues * Several indicators are pointing to some kind of a correction * Small caps are lagging The underlying trend of improving confidence continues The longer-term indicators monitoring the primary trend of the US stock market continue to point north. So too, do the various confidence...   READ MORE 

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AVERAGE DIRECTIONAL INDEX SHOWS AN OVERBOUGHT MARKET IN NEED OF A BREATHER -- THE LAST 5% PULLBACK IN STOCKS WAS FIFTEEN MONTHS AGO -- CONTRACTING BOLLINGER BANDS ALSO HINT AT SOME WEAKENING IN THE MARKET'S SHORT-TERM UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 IS DUE FOR A PAUSE ... There are a number of ways to tell when a market is stretched too far. My January 6 message pointed out that the 14-month RSI for the S&P 500 was the most overbought since the late 1990s (twenty years...   READ MORE