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WTIC CRUDE OIL CLOSES AT TWO-YEAR HIGH -- ENERGY SHARES WERE THIS WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- ENERGY SHARES ARE LAGGING TOO FAR BEHIND THE RISING COMMODITY -- THE WTIC/XLE RATIO ALSO BREAKS OUT TO TWO-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WTIC COMPLETES BULLISH BREAKOUT... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show WTIC Light Crude Oil ending the week above its early 2017 peak near $55 for the first time in more than two years. That upside breakout puts WTIC in sync with Brent Crude Oil which rose over $60 for...   READ MORE 

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CRUDE OIL IS TRADING OVER $55 FOR FIRST TIME IN TWO YEARS -- THAT'S BOOSTING ENERGY SHARES -- OIL & GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION SPDR IS ENERGY LEADER -- XOP LEADERS INCLUDE CONCHO RESOURCES, EOG RESOURCES, AND DIAMONDBACK ENERGY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WTIC CRUDE OIL ATTEMPTING BULLISH BREAKOUT OVER $55... My Wednesday message showed Brent Crude Oil trading over $60 for the first time in more than two years. Brent is trading over $62 today. It also showed West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTIC) trying to break through overhead resistance at $55....   READ MORE 

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Homebuilders Hit By Tax Reform

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB) * iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB) * Euro and yen looking vulnerable Limitations being proposed for the popular interest rate deduction on tax filings hit the two homebuilder ETF’s for six on Thursday. These are the SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB) and the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB)...   READ MORE 

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BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX RISES TO EIGHT MONTH HIGH -- BASE METALS ETF REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR YEARS -- BRENT CRUDE OIL EXCEEDS $60 FOR FIRST TIME IN TWO YEARS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX REACHES EIGHT-MONTH HIGH... With all of the attention focused on daily stock market records, it may be going unnoticed that commodity prices are starting to show some decent gains. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) rising to the highest level in...   READ MORE 

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BIG GAINS IN AMAZON, INTEL, MICROSOFT, GOOGLE, AND FACEBOOK PUSH NASDAQ 100 TO NEW RECORD -- AMAZON'S 13% GAIN HELPS LEAD CONSUMER CYCLICALS TO UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- INTEL AND MICROSOFT LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ 100 GAPS TO NEW RECORD ON FRIDAY... It started after the market closed on Thursday when a raft of big internet and technology stocks reported huge earnings which pushed their stock prices higher in after-market trading. It continued on Friday when those stocks scored explosive gains on strong volume....   READ MORE 

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Short-term Indicators Signaling Trouble Ahead?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Global short-term indicators start to go bearish near-term * VIX and other US oscillators showing signs of vulnerability Global short-term indicators start to go bearish near-term A couple of weeks ago I suggested that several short-term indicators were hinting at a near-term downside or range bound correction. Usually, I put in...   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR BOND YIELD HITS FIVE-MONTH HIGH -- UK AND GERMAN BOND YIELDS ALSO TURN UP -- 3% UK INFLATION INCREASES ODDS FOR RATE HIKE AND BOOSTS POUND -- ECB IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE BOND PURCHASES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES SEVEN-MONTH HIGH ... Treasury bond yields are leading an upturn in global bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rising to the highest level since March. Part of the reason for the upside breakout in the TNX is that foreign yields are also rising....   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS GAP HIGHER AND NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- THAT'S HELPING PUSH FINANCIAL SPDR TO NEW RECORD -- BANKS AND INSURERS ARE LEADING XLF HIGHER -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR ALSO NEARS NEW RECORD WITH HELP FROM TRANSPORTS -- MATERIAL SPDR NEARS NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN BOND YIELDS MAY BE IMMINENT... Bonds yields are jumping again today. That may be based on increased chances for a tax reform package. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) gapping 6 basis points higher in Friday trading. That puts the TNX within striking distance of...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS ARE JUMPING AGAIN -- THAT'S GIVING A BOOST TO FINANCIAL STOCKS -- RISING STOCK/BOND RATIO SHOWS MONEY ROTATING FROM TREASURIES INTO STOCKS -- THE MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US ETF IS RISING FASTER THAN THE U.S.

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS IS RISING AGAIN... After a modest setback last week, global bond yields are rising again. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing four basis points today. The TNX appears headed for another test of its July/early October peaks formed near 2.40%. An eventual...   READ MORE 

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Green Shoots Are Starting To Appear For The Dollar

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Special K offers a trend reversal signal * Euro looks toppy * Gold could be vulnerable * Watch those commodities Special K offers a trend reversal signal The Dollar Index ETF, the UUP, remains below its long-term moving averages and most long-term smoothed momentum, such as the KST also continues to drop. That...   READ MORE 

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PULLBACK IN BOND YIELDS CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN BANKS -- BUT KBE CHART PATTERN REMAINS POSITIVE -- WEAKER DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES -- BASE METALS ETF HITS NEW HIGH -- STEEL ETF LEADS MATERIALS RALLY -- PICK ETF NEARS ANOTHER THREE-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS WEAKEN... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) pulling back today to the lowest level for the month. The TNX is backing off from a test of its July peak near 2.4% which isn't too surprising. Its 14-day RSI line (top of chart) had...   READ MORE 

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GOLD LOSES SAFE HAVEN APPEAL AS STOCKS HIT NEW RECORDS -- GOLD MINERS ARE LEADING BULLION LOWER -- STOCK/GOLD RATIO HAS DONE A GOOD JOB MARKING TURNING POINTS IN BOTH MARKETS -- AND IT'S STILL RISING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD SPDR FAILS TEST OF RESISTANCE LINE... A month ago it looked like gold might be on the verge of a bullish breakout. It didn't happen. My September 7 message showed gold nearing a test of a major "neckline" extending back three years. The weekly bars...   READ MORE 

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A Pause To Refresh Before A Year End Rally?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Short-term October stock market correction? * Healthcare not looking so healthy * Dollar likely to digest recent gains over the immediate short-term * How about a rally in gold? Short-term October stock market correction? The strongest seasonal of the year for equities comes at year-end. Since this is a bull market, it seems...   READ MORE 

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THE NASDAQ 100 HIT A RECORD HIGH THIS WEEK, BUT STILL LAGS BEHIND THE S&P 500 OVER THE LAST MONTH -- RISING BOND YIELDS HAVE CAUSED THE QQQ TO LOSE MOST GROUND AGAINST FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS -- THE QQQ IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND ITS EQUAL-WEIGHT VERSION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW HIGH... Chart 1 shows the Powershares QQQ ETF hitting a record high this week. It was the last of the major stock indexes to do so, and its breakout is a positive sign for the market. It also did slightly better than the rest of the...   READ MORE 

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Why It's Important To Watch The Stock/Gold Ratio

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The relationship between Stocks and Gold * Long-term Picture * Three interpretive rules * Looking at it the other way. The Gold/stock Ratio * Two Politically troubled ETF’s, are so technically troubled Long-term Picture One of the areas I focused on in my latest Market Roundup Webinar was the tight trading range...   READ MORE 

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COPPER PRICES ARE RISING -- SO IS THE GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF -- S&P METALS & MINING ETF IS BEING HELD BACK BY GOLD, SILVER, AND STEEL STOCKS -- MSCI GLOBAL METALS AND MINING ETF OFFERS EXPOSURE TO STRONGER FOREIGN MINERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COPPER PRICES ARE REBOUNDING ... After rising to the highest level in three years a month ago, the price of copper experienced a modest correction during September. Chart 1 shows the metal pulling back to initial chart support along its August low and its 50-day moving average. But it's...   READ MORE 

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Market Roundup Video Recording With Martin Pring 2017-10-04

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The Market Round Up Video Recording for October is available. Use the HD button for better clarity when viewing. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-10-04 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the...   READ MORE 

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AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS AND INDUSTRIAL SPDR TO NEW RECORDS -- DELTA AND AMERICAN AIRLINES RISE ABOVE 200-DAY LINES -- AUTOS AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HIT NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AIRLINES TAKE OFF... Airlines stock are finally gaining some altitude. Previous messages have shown rails, truckers, and delivery service stocks leading the Dow Transports to record highs. My September 20 message described airlines as the weakest part of that sector, but showed them in an oversold condition and trying to...   READ MORE 

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RISING RATES CONTRIBUTE TO ROTATIONS -- FINANCIAL SPDR HITS ANOTHER RECORD -- FAANG STOCKS ARE STILL LAGGING BEHIND -- SO IS THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- S&P 500 VALUE ISHARES SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- S&P 400 MID CAP INDEX HITS NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO LEAD ... Financial stocks continue to build on their strong September gains. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) hitting a new record high again today. Rising interest rates are the main force driving money into banks, brokers, and insurers. The black line just above the price...   READ MORE 

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Four Implications Of A US Dollar Rally

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two bullish dollar charts * Several dollar sympathy relationships are likely to reverse In a couple of September articles on the dollar I suggested that the potential for a short-term rally existed, as bearish sentiment and other indicators appeared to have moved to an extreme. A rally of some kind does...   READ MORE 

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COMPARISON OF BOND CATEGORIES SUPPORTS THE CASE FOR HIGHER BOND YIELDS -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE OUTPERFORMING INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES -- CORPORATE BONDS AND TIPS ARE OUTPERFORMING TREASURIES -- SHORTER-MATURITY BONDS ARE OUTPERFORMING LONGER MATURITIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE OUTPERFORMING INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS... One of the ways that we can tell which way interest rates are expected to trend is to compare the relative performance of various bond categories. Let's start with corporate bonds. Chart 1 is a ratio of the iBoxx High...   READ MORE 

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BIG JUMP IN BOND YIELDS IS PUSHING FINANCIAL SECTOR TO A RECORD HIGH -- BANKS AND BROKERAGE ETFS ARE ALSO ACHIEVING BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- UTILITIES ARE REITS ARE FALLING WITH BOND PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES TO TWO-MONTH HIGH... The green bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) jumping 8 basis points today to reach the highest level since the end of July. The chart also shows the TNX having risen above a falling trendline drawn along its March/...   READ MORE 

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SMALL CAP VALUE ETF LEADS RUSSELL 2000 TO RECORD HIGH -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD -- SO DO THE DOW TRANSPORTS -- RYDER NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- BANKS CONTINUE TO RISE -- FINANCIAL SPDR NEARS A NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES LEAD SMALL CAPS TO RECORD HIGHS... The S&P Small Cap Index ($SML) and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) are hitting record highs today. Small cap value stocks are the main driver behind the breakout. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Value iShares (IWN)...   READ MORE 

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Staples And Materials: Which Sector To Hold And Which One To Fold?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The relationship between Staples and Materials * Long-term relative trends * Breakouts and breakdowns * Which of the materials sub-components are breaking out? * Euro looks short-term toppy The relationship between Staples and Materials Most of the time I concentrate on the trend of the overall market, but some sector charts for Consumer Staples...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS MAY BE PULLING MONEY OUT OF TECHNOLOGY INTO CHEAPER PARTS OF THE MARKET -- APPLE, AMAZON, AND GOOGLE LOSE GROUND -- RISING OIL PRICES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER BOND YIELDS -- RISING YIELDS ARE BOOSTING SMALL CAPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

APPLE, AMAZON, AND GOOGLE WEIGH ON TECH SECTOR... While the stock market is holding up okay, some rotations are going on beneath the surface. One is the rotation out of large cap tech stocks, former market leaders, into cheaper parts of the market like financials, small caps, and transports. Let&...   READ MORE 

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Fed Unwinding Triggers Rates To Rise, A Dollar Reversal And A Boost To Financials

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Dollar begins a short-term rally * Fed action boosts rates * Financials set to move higher Fed action on Wednesday had the effect of boosting rates, thereby causing  short-term reversals in several markets and relationships. These inflexion points in the markets are expected to influence prices over the next few weeks. Dollar...   READ MORE 

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DOW TRANSPORTS RISE TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN TWO MONTHS -- FEDEX AND UNITED PARCEL SERVICE HIT NEW RECORDS -- NORFOLK SOUTHERN AND UNION PACIFIC LEAD DOW JONES US RAILROAD INDEX TO RECORD -- TRUCKING INDEX ALSO HITS NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW TRANSPORTS RISE TO TWO-MONTH HIGH... Recent messages have described the gradual improvement in transportation stocks since mid-August. It started with their ability to reclaim their 200-day average in late August, followed by a move back above their 50-day average earlier this month. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation...   READ MORE 

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DOW JONES INTEGRATED OIL & GAS INDEX IS TRADING OVER ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE AND MAY BE ON VERGE OF UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- CHEVRON TOUCHES THREE-YEAR HIGH -- PHILLIPS 66 NEARS ALL-TIME HIGH -- CONOCOPHILLIPS RISES TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW JONES US INTEGRATED OIL & GAS INDEX MAY BE BREAKING OUT... Energy stocks have been the market's weakest performers during 2017. They're starting, however, to take a turn for the better, both in absolute and relative terms. Energy has been the market's strongest...   READ MORE 

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BANKS ARE LEADING FINANCIAL SECTOR HIGHER -- BANK LEADERS INCLUDE CITIGROUP, BANK OF AMERICA, AND JP MORGAN -- FIVE-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- 7-10 YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES ARE TESTING SUPPORT -- UTILITIES WEAKEN ALONG WITH BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... Financial stocks are helping lead the market higher today. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) trading at the highest level in five weeks after clearing its 50-day average. Its relative strength ratio (top of chart) continues its September rebound. Banks are leading the...   READ MORE 

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RISING ENERGY PRICES HELP BOOST AUGUST CPI -- ENERGY ETF REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL IN FIVE MONTHS -- THAT'S HELPING BOOST BOND YIELDS -- SO ARE RISING YIELDS IN THE UK -- THE POUNG SURGES TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN A YEAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY ETF REACHES FIVE-MONTH HIGH ... It was reported yesterday that the headline CPI for August rose 0.4% from the previous month, which was its biggest monthly gain since January. That boosted its year-over-year comparison to 1.9%, which is just shy of the Fed's target of 2%...   READ MORE 

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Is It Time To Buy The US Dollar?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A few words on sentiment * The long-term technical remains bearish but… * Short-term is almost bullish * What about the euro? * Conclusion A few words on sentiment The Dollar Index has been in a virtual free fall since the end of last year. No market goes down forever, because traders exhaust their...   READ MORE 

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It's Steady As She Goes For Global And US Equities

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Many positive indicators * Strong showing outside the US as well The last time I focused on the US stock market I pointed out that I liked the fact that the market was shrugging off bad news in the form of numerous widely circulated articles calling for a correction. While not...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES ARE DRAWING SUPPORT FROM WEAKER PARTS OF THE MARKET -- THAT INCLUDES ENERGY, FINANCIALS, RETAILERS, SMALL CAPS, AND TRANSPORTS -- GOLD PULLS BACK FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION, BUT REMAINS ABOVE BREAKOUT POINT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL CAPS ARE RISING AGAIN ... With the three major stock indexes hitting record highs yesterday, attention remains focused on market leaders. To me, the bigger story may be the resurgence of weaker parts of the market that have been holding it back. Small caps are at the top of the...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR INDEX DROPS TO TWO--YEAR LOW -- EURO IS TRADING OVER 120 -- WHILE CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH -- GOLD IS RISING EVEN FASTER -- GOLD SPDR MAY BE NEARING A MAJOR UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- THAT WOULDN'T BE GOOD FOR STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO TWO-YEAR LOW... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling below its 2016 bottom to the lowest level since the start of 2015. Some of that has to do with the fact that bond yields in the states...   READ MORE 

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Market Roundup Live With Martin Pring September 2017

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Here is the link to the Market Roundup Video Recording for September 2017. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring September 2017 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS ENDING ON A STRONG NOTE -- AND REMAIN ABOVE MOVING AVERAGE LINES -- SAFE HAVENS LIKE BONDS, GOLD, AND YEN PULL BACK -- THREE-MONTH EXTENSION OF DEBT CEILING HELPS BOOST STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS REMAIN ABOVE 50-DAY LINES... Stocks are ending the day on a strong note. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA) remaining above its 50-day average. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) bouncing off its 50-day line as well. Chart 3 shows the PowerShares...   READ MORE 

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Gold And Silver Getting Close To A Major Breakout

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term technical structure looks solid * Gold shares are solid * Hail silver! Back at the end of July in an article entitled Has $GOLD Got What It Takes For A Major Rally? I pointed out that gold was sporting some bullish characteristics to the extent that we would probably see a...   READ MORE 

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GOLD IS OUTPERFORMING BOND PRICES -- THAT INCLUDES ALL BOND CATEGORIES -- GOLD/BOND RATIOS ARE BREAKING OUT TO THE UPSIDE OR ARE CLOSE TO DOING SO -- THAT SUGGESTS THAT INVESTORS ARE BUYING GOLD ASSETS AS A HEDGE AGAINST EXPENSIVE BOND AND STOCK MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ALL BOND CATEGORIES ARE UNDERFORMING GOLD IN 2017... During the week, I wrote about gold (and gold miners) achieving upside breakouts and outperforming stocks for the first time since 2011. Gold, however, is also doing better than bonds for the first time in six years. Not just some bond categories,...   READ MORE 

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Growth Breaks Out Against Value As The NASDAQ Top Fails To Complete

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* NASDAQ is leading on the upside again * The Technology/Staples ratio continues to signal the all-clear for the whole market * Growth versus value is tipping towards growth NASDAQ is leading on the upside again Back in July the NASDAQ Composite was the epicenter for the coming market weakness, as it...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES ARE ENDING AUGUST ON A STRONG NOTE -- WITH THE NASDAQ BACK IN THE LEAD -- TECHNOLOGY AND BIOTECH ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS -- HEALTHCARE IS WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS ARE REBOUNDING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS ARE ENDING THE MONTH ON A STRONG NOTE ... Although the month of August will still go down as the weakest month of the year, stock indexes appear to be ending the month on a strong note. And all of them are showing short-term technical improvement. Chart 1, for example,...   READ MORE