* Oil experiences a major upside breakout * Overstretched energy markets on a short-term basis * Where oil goes commodities in general often follow I recently came across a commitment of traders hedgers chart that shows a record low short position. Now it’s true that since the 1990’s there has been... READ MORE
S&P 500 RETAIL SPDR ATTEMPTS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Retail stocks may have a strong holiday season after all. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 Retail SPDR (XRT) trying to clear its early October high near 42. That would put it at the highest level in six months.... READ MORE
YIELD CURVE FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE ... I've been reading a lot about the yield curve falling to the lowest level since 2007 and the potential warning that carries. The green bars in Chart 1 plot the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields (the yield... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX THREATENS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE... The U.S. dollar is in retreat today against most major foreign currencies. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index Fund (UUP) threatening to drop below its 50-day moving average (blue line). That would be the first time the UUP has slipped below that... READ MORE
* Small Caps breaking out * Gold and Silver may be close to a resolution to their recent rangebound activity * Euro in a real dilemma but with a bullish bias In sorting through a number of charts I recently came across some potential price patterns that are developing in several key markets.... READ MORE
HIGH YIELD BOND ISHARES BOUNCE SHARPLY OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... The recent selloff in high yield junk bonds has attracted a lot of attention in the financial media. My Tuesday message showed the iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond iShares (HYG) headed down for a test of chart support at its August... READ MORE
The long-term picture * Is the stock market smarter than the commodity market? * Commodity indexes short-term overbought The long-term picture Since mid-summer, commodity prices reflected in broadly based indexes such as the CRB ($CRB), Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) or the DB Commodity ETF (DBC) have been on a tear. However, short-term... READ MORE
UTILITIES HIT NEW RECORD ... With the rest of the market on the defensive, utility stocks are having another strong day. Chart 1 shows the Utilities Sector SPDR (XLU) climbing to another record high today. Utilities are the day's strongest sector (along with consumer staples), while all other sectors... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... My Wednesday message showed the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) testing its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows the TNX gapping 7 basis points higher today after finding support at its 200-day line. I also mentioned on Wednesday that the 10-Year Treasury yield was... READ MORE
Growth versus value and a possible mega breakout favoring growth * The technology/staples ratio supports the growth/value breakout * Some credit spreads are looking shaky * Are stocks finally breaking against commodities? Growth versus value and a possible mega-breakout favoring growth Chart 1 compares the performance of the S&P... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS PULLING BACK ... After reaching the highest level in seven months during October, the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) has experienced a pullback. Chart 1 shows, however, that pullback in the TNX over the last two weeks hasn't been enough to reverse its general uptrend. It... READ MORE
WTIC COMPLETES BULLISH BREAKOUT... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show WTIC Light Crude Oil ending the week above its early 2017 peak near $55 for the first time in more than two years. That upside breakout puts WTIC in sync with Brent Crude Oil which rose over $60 for... READ MORE
WTIC CRUDE OIL ATTEMPTING BULLISH BREAKOUT OVER $55... My Wednesday message showed Brent Crude Oil trading over $60 for the first time in more than two years. Brent is trading over $62 today. It also showed West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTIC) trying to break through overhead resistance at $55.... READ MORE
* SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB) * iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB) * Euro and yen looking vulnerable Limitations being proposed for the popular interest rate deduction on tax filings hit the two homebuilder ETF’s for six on Thursday. These are the SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB) and the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB)... READ MORE
BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX REACHES EIGHT-MONTH HIGH... With all of the attention focused on daily stock market records, it may be going unnoticed that commodity prices are starting to show some decent gains. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) rising to the highest level in... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 GAPS TO NEW RECORD ON FRIDAY... It started after the market closed on Thursday when a raft of big internet and technology stocks reported huge earnings which pushed their stock prices higher in after-market trading. It continued on Friday when those stocks scored explosive gains on strong volume.... READ MORE
* Global short-term indicators start to go bearish near-term * VIX and other US oscillators showing signs of vulnerability Global short-term indicators start to go bearish near-term A couple of weeks ago I suggested that several short-term indicators were hinting at a near-term downside or range bound correction. Usually, I put in... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES SEVEN-MONTH HIGH ... Treasury bond yields are leading an upturn in global bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rising to the highest level since March. Part of the reason for the upside breakout in the TNX is that foreign yields are also rising.... READ MORE
UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN BOND YIELDS MAY BE IMMINENT... Bonds yields are jumping again today. That may be based on increased chances for a tax reform package. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) gapping 6 basis points higher in Friday trading. That puts the TNX within striking distance of... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS IS RISING AGAIN... After a modest setback last week, global bond yields are rising again. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing four basis points today. The TNX appears headed for another test of its July/early October peaks formed near 2.40%. An eventual... READ MORE
* Special K offers a trend reversal signal * Euro looks toppy * Gold could be vulnerable * Watch those commodities Special K offers a trend reversal signal The Dollar Index ETF, the UUP, remains below its long-term moving averages and most long-term smoothed momentum, such as the KST also continues to drop. That... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS WEAKEN... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) pulling back today to the lowest level for the month. The TNX is backing off from a test of its July peak near 2.4% which isn't too surprising. Its 14-day RSI line (top of chart) had... READ MORE
GOLD SPDR FAILS TEST OF RESISTANCE LINE... A month ago it looked like gold might be on the verge of a bullish breakout. It didn't happen. My September 7 message showed gold nearing a test of a major "neckline" extending back three years. The weekly bars... READ MORE
* Short-term October stock market correction? * Healthcare not looking so healthy * Dollar likely to digest recent gains over the immediate short-term * How about a rally in gold? Short-term October stock market correction? The strongest seasonal of the year for equities comes at year-end. Since this is a bull market, it seems... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW HIGH... Chart 1 shows the Powershares QQQ ETF hitting a record high this week. It was the last of the major stock indexes to do so, and its breakout is a positive sign for the market. It also did slightly better than the rest of the... READ MORE
The relationship between Stocks and Gold * Long-term Picture * Three interpretive rules * Looking at it the other way. The Gold/stock Ratio * Two Politically troubled ETF’s, are so technically troubled Long-term Picture One of the areas I focused on in my latest Market Roundup Webinar was the tight trading range... READ MORE
COPPER PRICES ARE REBOUNDING ... After rising to the highest level in three years a month ago, the price of copper experienced a modest correction during September. Chart 1 shows the metal pulling back to initial chart support along its August low and its 50-day moving average. But it's... READ MORE
The Market Round Up Video Recording for October is available. Use the HD button for better clarity when viewing. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-10-04 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the... READ MORE
AIRLINES TAKE OFF... Airlines stock are finally gaining some altitude. Previous messages have shown rails, truckers, and delivery service stocks leading the Dow Transports to record highs. My September 20 message described airlines as the weakest part of that sector, but showed them in an oversold condition and trying to... READ MORE
FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO LEAD ... Financial stocks continue to build on their strong September gains. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) hitting a new record high again today. Rising interest rates are the main force driving money into banks, brokers, and insurers. The black line just above the price... READ MORE
* Two bullish dollar charts * Several dollar sympathy relationships are likely to reverse In a couple of September articles on the dollar I suggested that the potential for a short-term rally existed, as bearish sentiment and other indicators appeared to have moved to an extreme. A rally of some kind does... READ MORE
HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE OUTPERFORMING INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS... One of the ways that we can tell which way interest rates are expected to trend is to compare the relative performance of various bond categories. Let's start with corporate bonds. Chart 1 is a ratio of the iBoxx High... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES TO TWO-MONTH HIGH... The green bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) jumping 8 basis points today to reach the highest level since the end of July. The chart also shows the TNX having risen above a falling trendline drawn along its March/... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES LEAD SMALL CAPS TO RECORD HIGHS... The S&P Small Cap Index ($SML) and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) are hitting record highs today. Small cap value stocks are the main driver behind the breakout. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Value iShares (IWN)... READ MORE
The relationship between Staples and Materials * Long-term relative trends * Breakouts and breakdowns * Which of the materials sub-components are breaking out? * Euro looks short-term toppy The relationship between Staples and Materials Most of the time I concentrate on the trend of the overall market, but some sector charts for Consumer Staples... READ MORE
APPLE, AMAZON, AND GOOGLE WEIGH ON TECH SECTOR... While the stock market is holding up okay, some rotations are going on beneath the surface. One is the rotation out of large cap tech stocks, former market leaders, into cheaper parts of the market like financials, small caps, and transports. Let&... READ MORE
* Dollar begins a short-term rally * Fed action boosts rates * Financials set to move higher Fed action on Wednesday had the effect of boosting rates, thereby causing short-term reversals in several markets and relationships. These inflexion points in the markets are expected to influence prices over the next few weeks. Dollar... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS RISE TO TWO-MONTH HIGH... Recent messages have described the gradual improvement in transportation stocks since mid-August. It started with their ability to reclaim their 200-day average in late August, followed by a move back above their 50-day average earlier this month. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation... READ MORE
DOW JONES US INTEGRATED OIL & GAS INDEX MAY BE BREAKING OUT... Energy stocks have been the market's weakest performers during 2017. They're starting, however, to take a turn for the better, both in absolute and relative terms. Energy has been the market's strongest... READ MORE
FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... Financial stocks are helping lead the market higher today. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) trading at the highest level in five weeks after clearing its 50-day average. Its relative strength ratio (top of chart) continues its September rebound. Banks are leading the... READ MORE