* Bullish piercing white line * Bullish volume * VIX signaling volatility retreating again Bullish piercing white line Tuesday’s market action suggests that the selling squall is over, at least for the time being. That’s because a couple of indexes experienced a bullish candlestick pattern known as a piercing white line.... READ MORE
S&P 500 REBOUNDS OFF CHART SUPPORT... After opening sharply lower, stocks achieved an upside reversal on heavier volume than yesterday. And stocks bounced off a couple of important support levels. Yesterday's message showed a rising trendline extending back to late 2016 near the 2600 level. The... READ MORE
* Primary trend indicators are still bullish * Short-term indicators still overbought * Very short-term indicators already at extremes * Bonds bottoming short-term? I have been saying for some time that the market’s primary trend is a bullish one and that we should not get hung up with short-term... READ MORE
S&P 500 FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE... Stocks had a terrible day today. Major stock indexes in the U.S. lost about 4% in one day. And some chart damage was done. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 falling well below its... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS ARE CLIMBING ... Bond yields are rising a lot faster than a lot of people expected. And that's starting to worry stock holders. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 30-Year Treasury Yield rising over 3.00% for the first time since last March and... READ MORE
* Big changes in all four areas * Equities * Commodities * Currencies * Bonds This months market roundup has a lot of charts that are breaking out on long term relative strength breakouts. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-02-01 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Chartcon 2018 registration is now open! Registration kicked... READ MORE
* The underlying trend of improving confidence continues * Several indicators are pointing to some kind of a correction * Small caps are lagging The underlying trend of improving confidence continues The longer-term indicators monitoring the primary trend of the US stock market continue to point north. So too, do the various... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS DUE FOR A PAUSE ... There are a number of ways to tell when a market is stretched too far. My January 6 message pointed out that the 14-month RSI for the S&P 500 was the most overbought since the late 1990s (twenty... READ MORE
CRB INDEX ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT ... A couple of messages during the week showed the Bloomberg Commodity Index nearing a two-year high. It broke through those highs during the week. Today's message shows the more widely-followed Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index accomplishing a bullish breakout of its own... READ MORE
* Dollar experiences a short-term reversal * Commodities are in a bull market but adversely affected near-term * Gold showing signs of tiredness but still within a base building process Dollar experiences a short-term reversal It’s a funny thing in markets, when you have just grown comfortable with a... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SECTOR IS PLAYING CATCH-UP ... Healthcare stocks are off to a good start for the new year, and are one of the market's strongest sectors. That's a big change from the past three years when healthcare was one of the markets weakest laggards. That'... READ MORE
BRITISH POUND RISES WITH UK BOND YIELDS ... It's now official that the U.S. government wants a weaker dollar. Speaking in Switzerland, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that a weak dollar is good for the U.S. economy, and would help reduce the U.S. trade deficit. That'... READ MORE
DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES RISE... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) falling today to the lowest level in three years. The dollar is losing ground against virtually all major foreign currencies. Most of the upward movement in the UUP is coming from buying of the... READ MORE
* Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails * These confidence ratios are breaking to the upside and that’s bullish for stocks Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails Last week I pointed out that many of the principal indexes had traced out bearish dark cloud cover candlestick patterns.... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD TOUCHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield touching the highest level in three years today. A decisive close above its late 2016 peak (2.62%) would signal even higher rates. That's a lot better for... READ MORE
MARKET INDEXES NEAR YESTERDAY'S INTRA-DAY HIGH ... Stocks are making a strong comeback after yesterday afternoon's pullback. The charts below show 30-minute price bars for the three major stock indexes. All three are approaching the intra-day highs reached yesterday. Chart 1 also shows the... READ MORE
* Dark cloud cover explained * What enhances a dark cloud signal * How long is its bearish effect likely to last? Dark cloud cover explained The weather forecast this morning was for wintery weather on the East Coast. However, a more sobering non-meteorological message has been given by the stock market.... READ MORE
* CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance * Key intermarket relationships starting to point in an inflationary direction * Inter-asset ratios also confirm the inflationary scenario * Euro breaks to the upside CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance Late last month I wrote about several charts I was watching for a possible breakout... READ MORE
EURO REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... Yesterday's message showed the euro on the verge of a new three-year high. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the eurozone currency achieving that bullish breakout in today's trading. I also mentioned yesterday that a move above 1.20... READ MORE
A LONGER TERM LOOK AT RISING BOND YIELDS... Chart evidence of a major upturn in Treasury bond yields continues to grow. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) nearing a test of its late 2016 intra-day peak at 2.62%. A decisive move... READ MORE
* Basic changes in long-term momentum * The five-year maturity is signalling an end to the secular decline in yields * Twenty-year yield showing signs of basing * Ten-year attacking mega down trend line * From a short-term aspect bond prices look vulnerable * Utilities about to crash? Basic changes in... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 5 basis points to 2.53% which is the highest level since last March. That leaves little doubt that the trend for Treasury yields is upward. Part of the reason for... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS MOST OVERBOUGHT SINCE LATE 1990S... Global stock markets started off the new year with a bang. U.S. stock indexes exploded to record highs for the best start in years. Foreign stock benchmarks did the same, including the FTSE All World Stock Index which also... READ MORE
This months Market Roundup live video has a lot of information on the bond market. The six-stage cycle is currently in Stage 3. This large overview shows some of the major macro trends that are breaking right now. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-01-03 from StockCharts.com... READ MORE
Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market * Dollar sympathy indicators are close to a major breakdown * Canadian and Aussie dollars are driven by commodity prices * Emerging Market ETF benefiting from a weaker dollar Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market As 2018 begins to unfold the Dollar Index... READ MORE
UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Energy prices continue to rise. WTIC Light Crude Oil is trading over $61 today for the first time more than two years and is nearing a test of its spring 2015 high just over $62. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund... READ MORE
COMMODITIES ARE HISTORICALLY VERY CHEAP VERSUS STOCKS... I suggested yesterday that commodity prices (and stocks tied to them) usually do better in the later stages of a business cycle as inflation pressures start to build. We may be entering that stage. One of the reasons why investors may be turning... READ MORE
* 10-year bond yields could be in the process of a secular reversal. * What odds is the S. Korean ETF placing on the breakout of war? * China has gone uncharacteristically quiet. Is this the quiet before the storm? * CRB Composite just below mega resistance As we approach 2018 I thought... READ MORE
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS ... The U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares US Dollar Index (UUP) falling today to the lowest level in a month. The dollar is down against all foreign developed currencies except the yen which is marginally lower. The biggest influence on... READ MORE
SANTA CLAUS RALLY STILL LIES AHEAD... The stock market experienced the second slowest trading day of the year on Friday as traders headed home for Christmas. All major stock indexes, however, hit new records during the week. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index had the week's biggest percentage... READ MORE
* What message is the yield curve giving? * Secular reversal in short-term bond yields is being signalled * Energy sector breaks to the upside * Energy strength may breathe life into the CRB Composite What message is the yield curve giving? Despite what you may be reading, the yield curve is not... READ MORE
DOW JONES HOME CONSTRUCTION INDEX REACHES ELEVEN-YEAR HIGH... Recent reports of strong home sales and home construction have boosted stocks tied to the housing sector. The low inventory of existing homes available for sale argues for even more homebuilding in the year ahead. All of which bodes well for... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS NINE-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing another 3 basis points today to the highest level since March (2.49%). That's most likely tied to the impending passage of the tax bill before Congress with expectations for faster... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) jumping 7 basis points today to the highest level in two months in one of the biggest daily gains this year. That puts the yield within striking distance of its late October... READ MORE
MATERIALS SPDR HITS NEW RECORD ... In a strong market day, materials led stocks higher. Chart 1 shows the Materials Select SPDR (XLB) breaking out to a new record. The XLB has been finding support along its 50-day average. The XLB/SPX ratio (top of chart) has been lagging behing... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY HAS A STRONG WEEK... After leading the market higher for most of the year, technology stocks saw some profit-taking near the end of November, and have lagged behind the rest of the market since then. This week, however, technology was the market's strongest sector. And that... READ MORE
* General thoughts on the discounting process * Short-term indicators poised for, but not yet signalling a decline General thoughts on the discounting process There is an old adage on Wall Street to the effect that traders should, in the case of war, sell the rumor and buy on the sound... READ MORE
DISNEY AND FOX SURGE ... The announcement that Walt Disney was buying $66 billion worth of assets from Fox sent both stocks surging today. And they helped make cyclical stocks the day's biggest gainer. Chart 1 shows Disney (DIS) surging more than 3% to the highest closing level since... READ MORE
BOND YIELD IS CLIMBING... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing 2 basis points to 2.40%. The 5-year Treasury Yield (not shown) has climbed to the highest level in six years. Today's strong PPI report may have something to do... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CONTINUES NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE... Industrial stocks assumed a new market leadership role during November and remained in that role again this week. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) gaining 1.4% during the week which made it second only to the financial sector's gain... READ MORE