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TWO-YEAR LOW IN THE DOLLAR CONTRIBUTES TO UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN GOLD -- GOLD IS OUTPERFORMING STOCKS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2011 -- BUT NOT ENOUGH TO POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO STOCKS -- RISING EURO IS HURTING STOXX 50

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT ... After trading sideways for the past five months, gold finally achieved a bullish breakout yesterday. Chart 1 shows the price of gold breaking the $1300 barrier which had turned back previous rallies in April and early June. Gold is adding to that gain today. The flight...   READ MORE 

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Balance Of Equity Power Continues To Shift Away From The US

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Contrary opinion argues against being too bearish on US equities * US equities are breaking down against the world * Emerging markets are emerging * Metals driving north Contrary opinion argues against being too bearish on US equities The majority of the shorter-term indicators monitoring trends lasting between 4-6 weeks argue for an...   READ MORE 

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Is Housing Headed Towards The Basement?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Housing and housing stocks are vulnerable * Equal weight ETF’s are becoming less equal * Gold short-term vulnerable Housing and housing stocks are vulnerable New data for residential new single family home sales ($$HSNG1FAM) was released this morning and it is starting to look a little shaky. Chart 1 does not...   READ MORE 

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A Take On The Utilities In An On-going Correction

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Bearish short-term charts suggest there is more to come on the downside * Consumer Discretionary—not so discreet * Energy—out of gas * Utilities—a place to hide? Bearish short-term charts suggest there is more to come on the downside For the last two weeks, I have been zeroing in on a...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS HAVE A BAD DAY -- S&P 500 FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A MONTH -- THE RUSSELL 2000 CLOSES BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO DO THE TRANSPORTS -- VOLATILITY MEASURES SPIKE HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 FALLS TO SIX-WEEK LOW... Selling pressure resumed with a vengeance today. And a lot of support levels have been broken. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling back below its 50-day average to the lowest level in more than a month. Volume was higher....   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 FINDS SUPPORT AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO HAVE THE DOW TRANSPORTS -- TWO-YEAR COPPER HIGH BOOSTS COPPER MINER ETF -- FREEPORT MCMORAN IS BIGGEST PERCENTAGE GAINER IN THE S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO TRACK THE PERFORMANCE OF SMALLER STOCKS... One of the concerns expressed recently by several technical analysts (including myself) has been the relatively weak performance by small stocks. That's because they often tell us more about the true state of the stock market...   READ MORE 

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HOME IMPROVEMENT STOCKS LEAD CYCLICALS LOWER -- AMAZON HAS ALSO WEAKENED -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR IS UNDERPERFORMING THE MARKET -- IT'S ALSO UNDERPERFORMING CONSUMER STAPLES WHICH ARE GAINING GROUND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOME DEPOT AND LOWES TUMBLE... Heavy selling in retail stocks is weighing on cyclical stocks which are the one of the day's weakest sectors. Home improvement stocks are the day's weakest group in that sector. Chart 1 shows Home Depot (HD) losing nearly -3% and falling...   READ MORE 

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US Stock Market Showing More Near-term Weakness

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* More stock market indicators showing weakness * Bonds close to a breakout * Commodity rally over? * Dollar bottoming or about to break down? More stock market indicators showing weakness Last week I made the case for a correction in the market based on some specific indicators that has started to flash some...   READ MORE 

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VOLATILITY SPIKES AS MARKET SELLOFF CONTINUES -- VIX INDEX CLIMBS TO THREE-MONTH HIGH AND PLAYS CATCH-UP TO RISING NASDAQ 100 VOLATILITY INDEX -- MAJOR AVERAGES LOSE MORE GROUND -- THE S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 DROP TOWARD 50-DAY AVERAGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID SIZE STOCK INDEXES BREAK SUPPORT... Yesterday's message showed small and midcap stock indexes testing support at their July lows, and warned that any further weakness would be bad for them and the rest of the market. Both indexes have broken support levels and are now...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS TRADE LOWER ON HEIGHTENED TENSIONS -- MACD LINES FOR S&P 500 TURN NEGATIVE -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCKS ARE DAY'S BIGGEST LOSERS -- VIX INDEX GAINS 8% -- RECENT GAINS IN THE NASDAQ 100 VOLATILITY INDEX ARE OF MORE CONCERN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 PULLS BACK ... Global stocks are in the red today, which continues the profit-taking that started yesterday afternoon. Yesterday's downside reversal day in U.S. stock indexes on rising volume signaled the likelihood of more profit-taking. Foreign stocks in Europe and Asia are falling more...   READ MORE 

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Dow 22,000 Mission Accomplished. Oh Yeah?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Bullish percent indicators are starting to deteriorate * Short-term confidence may be turning * Small caps getting smaller? * Oversold Dollar Index bounces from support Bullish Percent Index indicators are starting to deteriorate This week we saw the financial media and President Trump glorify the fact that the DJIA had exceeded 22,000...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS END THE WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE WITH THE DOW STILL IN THE LEAD -- SMALL CAPS REBOUND AS TRANSPORTS HOLD 200-DAY LINE -- JUMP IN BOND YIELDS KEEPS FINANCIALS IN THE LEAD -- OVERSOLD DOLLAR BOUNCES OFF MAJOR CHART SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW HITS NEW RECORD WHILE NASDAQ HOLDS BACK ... The Dow Industrials continue to lead the market higher. Chart 1 shows the Dow ending the week at a new record. Its weekly gain of 1.2% led all other market indexes. Its 14-day RSI line, however, shows the Dow now in...   READ MORE 

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AFTER FALLING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, CRUDE OIL AND GASOLINE PRICES ROSE DURING JULY -- THAT SHOULD BOOST INFLATION NUMBERS FOR THAT MONTH -- THE FED SHOULD LIKE THAT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY PRICES ROSE DURING JULY... A report on Tuesday covered economic conditions during the second quarter. One of the things it showed was continuing low inflation, which remains well below the Fed's target of 2%. One of the factors mentioned was falling energy prices. Naturally, the media reported...   READ MORE 

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A FEW CRACKS ARE SHOWING IN THE STOCK UPTREND -- THE FIRST ONE IS DOW OUTPERFORMANCE -- THE SECOND IS TRANSPORTATION SELLING -- A THIRD IS SMALL CAP WEAKNESS -- AND STOCKS HAVE ENTERED A SEASONALLY A WEAK PERIOD BEWEEN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW OUTPERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE A SIGN OF MARKET STRENGTH... It seems everyone in the media has been transfixed on the Dow Industrials hitting 22K this week. And they cite that as proof that the stock rally is alive and well. That recent Dow strength, however, is coming from a...   READ MORE 

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Market Round Up Video Recording With Martin Pring 2017-08-01

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The Market Round Up Video Recording for August is available. Use the HD button for better clarity when viewing. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-08-01 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the...   READ MORE 

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Has $GOLD Got What It Takes For A Major Rally?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The longer-term indicators very finely balanced * The Gold/dollar ratio may be providing some leadership * Gold shares may have something to say in the matter The longer-term indicators very finely balanced The price of Gold has been in a trading range since late 2013, and has traded even more narrowly...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR IS BOOSTING COMMODITIES -- THAT'S POTENTIALLY INFLATIONARY -- WHILE A RISING EURO IS HOLDING EUROZONE INFLATION DOWN -- A STRONGER EURO IS STARTING TO WEIGH ON EUROPEAN STOCKS -- A LOOK AT GOLD IN DIFFERENT CURRENCIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CURRENCIES HAVE AN IMPACT ON INFLATION RATES... Persistently low inflation is worrying central bankers around the globe. Even the Fed has expressed more concern of late. Central bankers in Australia, Canada, Europe, and Japan have also mentioned low inflation as restraining them from abandoning their ultra-loose monetary policies. So far,...   READ MORE 

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TRANSPORTS AND TECHS ARE HAVING A BAD DAY -- AIRLINES ARE DOWN 4% -- UPS IS ALSO HAVE A BAD DAY -- NASDAQ 100 IS SUFFERING DOWNSIDE REVERSAL ON SELLING OF BIG TECH STOCKS -- THAT INCLUDES APPLE AND GOOGLE -- SEMICONDUCTORS ARE ALSO TURNING SHARPLY LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANSPORTATION ISHARES FALL BELOW 50-DAY LINE... After hitting a new record earlier in the month, transportation stocks are being sold pretty hard today . Chart 1 shows the Transportation Average iShares (IYT) plunging 3% to the lowest level in nearly two months. The IYT has also fallen back below its 50-day...   READ MORE 

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U.S. DOLLAR INDEX IS NEARING POTENTIAL MAJOR SUPPORT NEAR 2016 LOWS -- ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DOLLAR UPTREND IS INCOMPLETE AND MAY HAVE FURTHER TO RUN -- THAT WOULD CALL INTO QUESTION A LOT OF CURRENT INTERMARKET TRENDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A LOT IS RIDING ON DOLLAR DIRECTION... After hitting a 14-year high at the end of 2016, the U.S. Dollar Index has lost 8% during 2017. A lot of that slide came from disappointment in the so-called Trump reflation trade which was supposed to boost the U.S. economy,...   READ MORE 

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US Equities Reach Critical Point In Their Battle With The Rest Of The World

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The US versus the world * Two reasons why US equities are likely to underperform * What does the rest of the world say? I have been writing for some time that, notwithstanding the inevitable but unpredictable near-term correction, the US market is in good technical shape and likely to work its...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS MAY BE BOTTOMING -- RISING OIL AND METAL PRICES MAY ALSO BE BOOSTING YIELDS -- COPPER STOCKS LEAD RALLY IN MINERS -- RISING BOND YIELDS ARE BOOSTING BANKS AND OTHER FINANCIAL STOCKS -- RISING YIELDS MAY BE HURTING TECHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS MAY BE BOTTOMING... Bond yields are jumping today. Their chart patterns also suggest that yields may be bottoming. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year US Treasury YIeld ($TNX) jumping 6 basis points today to push it back above its (red) 200-day average. The trendline drawn over its May/July...   READ MORE 

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Confidence Indicators And Small Caps Point To Higher Stock Prices

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* What is a confidence indicator? * Credit Spreads to the rescue * Equity market spreads * Growth versus Value * Small caps: Are we there yet? Washington may be suffering from acute dysfunction but Wall Street doesn’t seem to care, or perhaps knows something that we mere mortals do not. Failure to agree...   READ MORE 

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WEAK DOLLAR HELPS BOOST EMERGING MARKETS -- EM CURRENCIES AND STOCKS ARE RISING TOGETHER -- THIS ISN'T A COMMODITY STORY -- IT'S A TECHNOLOGY ONE -- TECHNOLOGY STOCKS IN ASIA ARE DRIVING THE EM RALLY -- FALLING TREASURY YIELDS ARE ALSO HELPING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES... One of my recent messages explained that a weak dollar was contributing to money flows into foreign markets. That's because American investors get the dual benefit of rising foreign currencies as well as stocks. That's been especially true in emerging...   READ MORE 

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STRONG ECONONIC NEWS IN CHINA BOOSTS BASE METALS -- MINING ETFS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- SO ARE IRON ORE MINERS BHP BILLITON AND RIO TINTO -- CHINA MAY IMPORT MORE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES TO OFFSET SHORTAGES -- HIGHER FOOD PRICES MAY BE IN THE PIPELINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHINESE ECONOMY EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS... China's economy grew by 6.9% during the second quarter which exceeded market expectations. That's one of the explanations behind today's jump in industrial metals like copper, iron ore, and zinc. Mining stocks that produce those commodities are also having...   READ MORE 

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ANOTHER WEAK CPI REPORT BOOSTS BONDS AND STOCKS -- BOND YIELDS DROP ON EXPECTATIONS FOR LESS AGGRESSIVE FED -- RISING BOND YIELDS CAN BE BAD FOR TECHNOLOGY STOCKS -- FALLING DOLLAR REDUCES NEED TO HEDGE FOREIGN CURRENCY RISKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS DROP ON LACK OF INFLATION ... June's CPI report showed no change from the previous month, reflecting the absence of inflation. Its annual gain of 1.6% was the smallest since last October. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI saw a modest monthly bounce of 0....   READ MORE 

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CANADA RATE HIKE BOOSTS CURRENCY BUT WEAKENS STOCKS WHICH ARE WEAKEST IN G7 -- HIGHER COMMODITIES PRICES COULD HELP -- LIVESTOCK PRICES ARE RISING -- DROUGHT IN THE MIDWEST AND RAIN IN GERMANY BOOST GLOBAL WHEAT PRICES -- FOOD AND SERVICES BOOST JUNE PPI

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CANADA RATE HIKE BOOSTS THE LOONIE... Canada warned that it was about to hike rates, and did it yesterday for the first time in seven years. The Bank of Canada raised its short-term policy rate 25 basis points to 0.75%. That's still below the rate of 1....   READ MORE 

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Global Stocks Break To The Upside

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

1. Some Global Equity Markets Getting Lift-off Again 2. US equities trying to follow the global lead 3. Relative trends favor emerging and Europe 4. Technology poised to move higher In terms of price, global equities have been in a corrective mode since late May, but now appear to be...   READ MORE 

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BONDS AND STOCKS LIKE DOVISH SOUNDING FED -- LOW INFLATION IS KEEPING THE FED CAUTIOUS -- A WEAKER DOLLAR MAY BE HELPING COMMODITIES -- LONG-TERM CHARTS SUGGEST THAT COMMODITIES MAY BE BOTTOMING -- DROUGHT CONDITIONS BOOST GRAIN PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING DOLLAR MAY GIVE FED A HAND... Bonds and stocks are reacting very positively to written comments by Janet Yellen before Congress today. Her comments are being interpreted as being more dovish than anticipated, owing mainly to Fed concerns about persistently low inflation. It's hard for the Fed...   READ MORE 

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Are Precious Metals Likely To Get Less Precious?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Long-term indicators * Gold in Euro and Yen looking sick * Dollar based Gold completes head and shoulders top gold shares not quite there yet * Silver showing signs of tiredness * Stocks breaking out against Gold * The silver lining for Gold Several articles  I have written in the last few weeks have...   READ MORE 

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DESPITE FRIDAY'S STOCK BOUNCE, TECHNICAL INDICATORS SIGNAL CAUTION -- THE S&P 500 HASN'T HAD A 5% CORRECTION IN MORE THAN A YEAR AND APPEARS OVERDUE FOR ONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ARE USUALLY WEAKER MONTHS... I've made references to seasonal patterns in some recent messages. I'm referring mainly to monthly seasonal patterns. Chart 1 plots the percent of months the S&P 500 closed higher over the last ten years. Average percentage gains...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS JUMP AGAIN IN EUROPE WHICH IS PRESSURING BONDS AND STOCKS -- TECHNOLOGY SECTOR REMAINS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF SLIPPING BELOW ITS 50-DAY LNE -- NASDAQ VOLATILITY REACHES EIGHT-MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GERMAN 10-YEAR BUND YIELD REACHES 18-MONTH HIGH ... The jump in European bond yields that started last Tuesday is continuing. A weak French auction of 30-year bonds caused bond prices in Europe to fall sharply which pushed yields higher. Ten-Year French and German yields jumped 10 and 9 basis points respectively....   READ MORE 

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July's Market Round Up Live Video Recording 2017-07-05

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Here is the July video recording for Market Round Up Live 2017-07-05. 2017-07-05 08.02 @Test Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-07-05 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring...   READ MORE 

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Are Small Caps About To Come Alive?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Watch those small caps * Dr. Copper about to get better? * Wheat enters a primary bull market * The yen is getting close to a downside breakout * Gold is close to a breakdown Watch those small caps Chart 1 features the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the IWM, together with its relative strength...   READ MORE 

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NARROWING SPREAD BETWEEN TREASURIES AND FOREIGN YIELDS ARE BAD FOR THE DOLLAR -- A STUDY OF QE IMPACT ON DOLLAR DIRECTION -- FALLING DOLLAR MAY HELP STABILIZE COMMODITY PRICES -- BASE METALS HAD A STRONG WEEK -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS ALSO BOUNCED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NARROWING SPREAD BETWEEN GLOBAL YIELDS HURTS THE DOLLAR... The U.S. Dollar has had a bad six months. And things got even worse this week. The driving force between currencies is the relationship between global interest rates. The 10-Year Treasury yield remains higher than foreign developed yields. The problem is...   READ MORE 

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TECH SELLOFF RESUMES WHILE FINANCIALS GAIN -- THAT CONTINUES THE ROTATION OUT OF GROWTH AND INTO VALUE STOCKS THAT STARTED ON JUNE 9 -- TECH SPDR UNDERCUTS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- BANKS GAINED ON STRESS TEST RESULTS AND RISING BOND YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECH SECTOR UNDERCUTS 50-DAY AVERAGE...STRESS TEST BOOSTS BANKS... Everyone in the media is suddenly talking about a rotation out of technology-dominated growth stocks into value stocks led by financials, healthcare, and (to a lesser extent) energy shares. We wrote about that on the day it started (June 9): "...   READ MORE 

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GERMAN AND UK BOND YIELDS ARE JUMPING -- THAT'S BOOSTING FOREIGN CURRENCIES AND WEAKENING THE DOLLAR -- DOLLAR WEAKNESS SUPPORTS ROTATION INTO FOREIGN STOCKS -- RISING CANADIAN DOLLAR FAVORS CANADA ISHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TODAY IT'S THE BRITS TURNING HAWKISH... Yesterday it was hawkish comments from Mario Draghi that pushed eurozone bond yields sharply higher, and the rest of the world with them. Today it's hawkish comments by Mark Carney that the Brits may have to raise rates soon. Rising...   READ MORE 

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Investment Implications From A Breakout In The Stock/Gold Ratio?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Technical condition poised for an upside breakout in the stock/Gold ratio * The significance for equities and gold from an upside or downside breakout. * Wither the tech stocks? Technical condition poised for an upside breakout in the stock/Gold ratio The ratio ($SPX:$GOLD) between the S&P 500...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY YIELDS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER -- THAT'S HELPING FINANCIAL STOCKS -- LEADERS INCLUDE JP MORGAN, SCHWAB, AND METLIFE -- TECHNOLOGY SELLING RESUMES -- SEMIS ARE ALSO FALLING -- THAT'S STARTING TO TAKE A TOLL ON THE S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HAS A STRONG DAY ... For the first time in weeks, bond yields are climbing. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing 7 basis points to the highest level in two weeks. A lot of that is following even bigger gains in Europe. French and German 10-year...   READ MORE 

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AN EVEN LONGER-TERM COMPARISON OF THE LINK BETWEEN CRB INDEX AND CPI -- THE PAST TWO EXPERIENCES OF FULL EMPLOYMENT ALSO SAW RISING RISING OIL PRICES -- THIS TIME MAY BE DIFFERENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONG TERM COMPARISON OF CPI AND COMMODITIES... I wrote a message over the weekend examining the impact that full employment and commodity prices have had on CPI inflation. At the risk of overdoing it, I'd like to finish that article with two more charts. I made the bold...   READ MORE 

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STUDYING HISTORY TO MEASURE THE IMPACT OF FULL EMPLOYMENT AND COMMODITY PRICES ON CPI INFLATION -- THE FED IS BANKING ON FULL EMPLOYMENT TO BOOST INFLATION -- BUT THAT'S UNLIKELY AS LONG AS COMMODITY PRICES ARE FALLING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A HISTORICAL COMPARISON... A big debate is going on regarding the path of inflation. Inflation figures have slipped during the second quarter. So have commodity prices. Normally, falling commodity prices signal lower inflation. Fed economists argue that the current low unemployment rate should boost inflation. The Fed generally defines "...   READ MORE