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FALLING ENERGY PRICES ARE AFFECTING BOND RELATIONSHIPS -- LONGER MATURITIES ARE RISING FASTER -- AND INFLATION PROTECTED BONDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND -- ENERGY RELATED HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE ALSO WEIGHING ON THAT SECTOR -- CRUDE OIL IS TESTING NOVEMBER LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONGER MATURITY BONDS ARE RISING FASTER ... We can often get clues about market sentiment by comparing different parts of the fixed income universe. A lot has been written about the falling yield curve, which plots the difference between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury yields. That usually signals expectations for lower inflation....   READ MORE 

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Is The Dollar Really In A Bear Market?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The long-term setting * Short-term considerations * Some individual currencies are vulnerable over the short-term * Conclusion The long-term setting A few weeks ago I pointed out that the Dollar Index ($USD) had violated its bull market trendline, as well as the 65-week EMA and 12-month MA, two key long-term smoothings. That type...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE IS YEAR'S SECOND STRONGEST SECTOR -- IT ALSO OFFERS GREAT VALUE -- THE BEST HEALTHCARE VALUE NOW LIES WITH BIOTECHS AND PHARMA -- BIOTECH ISHARES ARE BREAKING OUT TO UPSIDE -- PHARMACEUTICAL ISHARES SHOULD BE NEXT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE IS GETTING A LOT STRONGER ... I continue to believe that healthcare is one of the best values in the stock market. And it's attracting a lot of investor attention. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) trading at a new record high after clearing its mid-2015...   READ MORE 

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WHILE TECHNOLOGY HAS SLIPPED, FINANCIALS AND HEALTHCARE HAVE BECOME MARKET LEADERS -- HEALTHCARE SPDR HITS RECORD HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY IS NOT THE STRONGEST SECTOR ... Although a rebound in technology is getting the most attention, it's not the main reason that stock indexes are hitting new highs. Most of that credit goes to financials and healthcare. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Technology SPDR (XLK)...   READ MORE 

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FALLING COMMODITY PRICES ARE A BIG REASON WHY INFLATION IS SO LOW -- CRB INDEX FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN A YEAR -- FALLING COMMODITY PRICES ARE HELPING PULL YIELD CURVE LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRB INDEX IS TRADING AT LOWEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN A YEAR... Ever since Wednesday's Fed rate hike, and the press conference by Janet Yellen, I've been thinking a lot about inflation. I believe the Fed is underestimating how weak inflation really is. I also believe...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY YIELDS FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE ON WEAK INFLATION NUMBERS -- CRUDE OIL FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A YEAR -- LOWER FOREIGN BOND YIELDS ARE ALSO WEIGHING ON TREASURY YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... Expectations are for another Fed rate hike this afternoon. Bond yields, however, are falling sharply. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) falling 9 basis points to the lowest level since last November. The yield has also slipped below its 200-day average...   READ MORE 

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Is This The End Of The Game For Tech Stocks?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Widespread dissemination of tech sell-off * Bears, not so fast * Not all tech sub groups experienced Friday’s selling spree * Commodities are down, but are they out? Widespread dissemination of tech sell-off In the last few days, we have seen a tremendous amount of financial media space alerting us to Friday&...   READ MORE 

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Financials Break To The Upside And That's Good For The Market

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The head and shoulders that did not “work” * Inflation versus deflation sectors * Which are the financial sector stars? * Why financials matter The head and shoulders that did not “work” On this same date in May we published an article suggesting that financials could be an interesting area to monitor for...   READ MORE 

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INVESTORS ARE SELLING TECHNOLOGY AND BUYING FINANCIALS -- THAT SUGGESTS A ROTATION OUT OF GROWTH AND INTO VALUE STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEAVY PROFIT-TAKING IN TECHNOLOGY... An overbought technology sector is being sold heavily today. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) tumbling in heavy trading. That's mainly big technology stocks. Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) looking just as bad. The FANG stocks are a big part...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS HAVE A STRONG DAY -- BANK AND BROKER ETFS TURN UP -- ASSET MANAGERS INDEX HITS NEW RECORD -- LEADERS INCLUDE BLACKROCK, STATE STREET, AND BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON -- FINANCIAL RALLY MAY ALSO EXPLAIN SMALL CAP BUYING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIAL SPDR TURNS SHARPLY HIGHER... Financial stocks are having a very strong day. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) surging to the highest level in a month and, in the process, clearing its 50-day average. That puts the XLF in position to challenge its spring highs. A decisive...   READ MORE 

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AIRLINES ARE LEADING TRANSPORTATION STOCKS HIGHER -- AIRLINE INDEX HITS RECORD HIGH -- DAY'S LEADERS ARE ALASKA AIR, DELTA, AMERICAN AIRLINES, AND JETBLUE -- FEDEX ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN MAY BE CLOSE TO ONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO GAIN... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Jones Transportation Average reversing higher today to continue its recent upturn. After finding support at its 200-day average during May, the TRAN rose above a three-month resistance line last week to signal its takeoff. It now appears...   READ MORE 

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Market Round Up Video With Martin Pring 2017-06-02

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Here is the link to this months Market Round Up with Martin Pring for June 2017. Don't forget to use the HD button for better quality. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-06-02 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good trading, Martin J. Pring...   READ MORE 

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STAPLES AND CYCLICALS HIT NEW HIGHS TOGETHER -- BUT CYCLICALS STILL HAVE THE EDGE -- HEALTHCARE SPDR HITS NEW RECORD HIGH -- MIDCAPS MAY GIVE TRUER PICTURE OF STOCK MARKET --S&P 400 MID CAP INDEX IS CONSOLIDATING IN BULLISH TRIANGLE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STAPLES AND CYLICALS BOTH HIT NEW HIGHS... We can often get clues about stock market direction by watching shifting rotations among market sectors. In a strong market, stocks tied to the economy usually lead. In a correction, defensive stocks lead. But what are we to make of a situation where...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- FALLING YIELD CURVE HURTS BANKS -- FALLING YIELDS, HOWEVER, PUSH UTILITIES TO NEW HIGHS -- SMALL CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERFORM -- U.S. LARGE CAP STRENGTH MAY HAVE MORE TO DO WITH STRONGER FOREIGN MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING BOND YIELD PUSHES YIELD CURVE LOWER... The divergence between falling Treasury bond yields and rising stock indexes may be starting to take its toll on the stock market. Major stock indexes are in the red today. The biggest selling, however, is coming from small caps and financials. At the...   READ MORE 

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Perhaps The Fed Won't Raise Rates After All?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term background for bonds * Bond Prices at a critical short-term juncture point * Is the 5-year yield forming a massive top? * Utilities moving in sympathy with bonds * Interest sensitive REITS starting to improve * Follow the commodities Long-term background for bonds A lot of people are betting that stronger economic data will...   READ MORE 

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GROWTH STOCKS ARE CARRYING MARKET HIGHER -- THAT'S MAINLY BIG TECHS -- VALUE STOCKS ARE LAGGING BEHIND -- THAT'S MAINLY FINANCIALS AND ENERGY -- % OF STOCKS ABOVE 50- AND 200-DAY AVERAGES NEED TO START CLIMBING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GROWTH STOCKS ARE LEADING THIS YEAR'S STOCK RALLY... The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new record highs yesterday, and the Dow isn't far behind. Large parts of the stock market, however, are lagging behind. That's not necessarily a good thing. The...   READ MORE 

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Five Charts That Say Today's S&P Breakout Is For Real

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Lots of supporting breakouts * Confidence ratio on the verge of a major bullish breakout? * Financials: trick or treat? * The US is due for a bounce against the rest of the world * Is it time to play the China card? Lots of supporting breakouts Last week I pointed out that the...   READ MORE 

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AIRLINES ARE LEADING INDUSTRIAL SPDR TO NEW HIGHS -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE UAL, SOUTHWEST, AND JETBLUE -- TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ISHARES CLEAR 50-DAY LINE -- DOW INDUSTRIALS NEAR NEW RECORD -- S&P 500 IS ALREADY THERE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INDUSTRIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the Industrial Select SPDR (XLK) trading in record territory today. Today's higher price action is pushing the XLI above a sideways trading pattern that's been in effect since the start of March. Its relative strength line (above chart)...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Index Triggers Some Long-term Sell Signals

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers * Dollar sympathy relationships confirm a weaker dollar * Emerging currencies are emerging * Some currencies remain in bear market against the dollar Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers This week, the US Dollar Index ($USD) violated several key benchmarks, leading...   READ MORE 

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RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER -- THE FALLING DOLLAR, HOWEVER, IS BOOSTING COMMODITIES -- BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT -- FRIDAY'S REBOUND REPAIRS SOME DAMAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER... While stocks are rebounding today, the dollar isn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again today to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond...   READ MORE 

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Two Important Areas To Watch- $VIX and Financials

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* 10-day ROC for the VIX may have a message for traders * Close that gap on your way out * Financials, a canary in the coal line for stocks in general Last week I wrote about the $VIX and concluded that a low reading, such as we recently saw, usually precedes a...   READ MORE 

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BIG DROPS IN BOND YIELDS AND DOLLAR SHOW LOSS OF CONFIDENCE -- FINANCIALS, SMALL CAPS, AND TRANSPORTS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- FALLING STOCK INDEXES ARE SUFFERING SHORT-TERM CHART DAMAGE -- TRADERS COULD BE SELLING IN MAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP ... My Saturday message issued some short-term warnings for the market. Part of that warning came from falling bond yields which hinted that fixed income traders were turning more pessimistic. Another came from weak performances by banks, small caps, and transports which are leading the stock...   READ MORE 

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U.S. UNDERPERFORMS FOREIGN STOCKS -- DECADE OF U.S. LEADERSHIP MAY BE ENDING -- VANGUARD FOREIGN STOCK ETF HITS TEN-YEAR HIGH -- EUROZONE SHARES ALSO BREAK OUT -- UK ISHARES BENEFIT FROM STRONGER POUND -- RISING EMERGING CURRENCIES BENEFIT EM STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. STOCKS ARE GLOBAL UNDERACHIEVERS... Several of my previous messages have written about foreign stocks doing better than those in the U.S. this year. I'll come back to those foreign charts shortly. Chart 1, however, is designed to show how weak U.S. stocks have been...   READ MORE 

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Chinese ETF's Are Playing Good Cop Bad Cop

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Trying to replicate the Shanghai Composite with a Chinese ETF * Global Update Years ago, investing in China was a challenging proposition for US based investors. In recent years though, a number of ETF’s have been listed that embrace Chinese Indexes as well as specific sectors. The big daddy of...   READ MORE 

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DROP IN BOND YIELDS SENDS CAUTION SIGNAL -- THAT KEEPS BANKS ON THE DEFENSIVE -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS ARE SHOWING RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- AMAZON RISE OFFSETS DEPARTMENT STORE LOSSES -- TECHNOLOGY SHARES LEAD TAIWAN MARKET TO SEVENTEEN YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS DROP ON FRIDAY... Some caution crept into financial markets near the end of the week. Part of that was reflected in Friday's sharp drop in bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling back below its 50-day average in pretty decisive fashion. That was...   READ MORE 

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When Does A Low VIX Reading Matter?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The VIX * The Dollar Index * The Euro * Swiss Franc * Japanese Yen The VIX Most of this piece is devoted to the dollar and some interesting looking currencies. However, I have been intrigued by a couple of articles and news stories recently appearing in the general purpose media. They have pointed...   READ MORE 

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FALLING COMMODITIES AREN'T DRIVING EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- TECHNOLOGY IS -- THAT'S ESPECIALLY TRUE IN SOUTH KOREA AND TAIWAN WHICH ARE EEM LEADERS -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR IS LEADING SEMICONDUCTOR ETF TO NEW HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITIES DIVERGE FROM EEM... One of the long-held principles of emerging market behavior is that they're closely correlated to the direction of commodity prices. That's because several large emerging markets are exporters of commodities (like Brazil and Russia). China is the world's biggest importer...   READ MORE 

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Sell In May And Go Away? Forget Stocks But How About Commodities?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* $CRB and oil break to the downside * The stock market says commodities are headed lower * Bond market participants leaning in a deflationary way * Watch those commodity currencies The usual “Sell in May and Go Away” articles are starting to appear bigly, and a case can indeed be made in that...   READ MORE 

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SECTOR RANKINGS AND WEIGHTINGS ARE STILL MARKET POSITIVE -- THE YEAR'S TOP FOUR SECTORS ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN HALF OF THE S&P 500 -- ANOTHER 15% ARE MATCHING S&P 500 PERFORMANCE -- ENERGY IS THE BIGGEST LAGGARD BUT ACCOUNTS FOR ONLY 8% OF S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SECTOR LEADERSHIP... One of the problems facing the current stock market is that some sectors have been rising, while others have suffered large losses. Since the start of the year, for example, technology has gained nearly 14% versus a 6.7% gain for the S&P 500. Energy stocks,...   READ MORE 

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RISING RATES PUNISH GOLD -- BASE METALS AND MINERS ARE ALSO FALLING -- CHINA WEAKNESS MAY EXPLAIN WHY -- FALLING COMMODITIES AND WEAK CANADIAN DOLLAR PUSH CANADA ISHARES BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE -- INSURANCE ETF GETS A BOOST FROM RISING BOND YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD ASSETS ARE ALSO FALLING... Add gold and gold miners to the list of former safe havens that are weakening. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) falling to a seven-week low today and back below its moving average lines. Gold miners are doing even worse. Chart 2 shows the...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS MAY BE BOTTOMING -- BOND ETF FAILS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN UTILITIES AND REITS HINT AT LOWER BOND PRICES -- FINANCIALS MAY BE TURNING UP -- A HIGHER FINANCIALS/UTILITIES RATIO WOULD SIGNAL HIGHER YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD STILL IN UPTREND... Today's Fed announcement contained no surprises. However, the Fed's view that recent economic softness is "transitory" in nature appears to have caused an uptick in bond yields. Technical factors also appear to favor higher yields. I'll...   READ MORE 

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Global Equities Trick or Treat?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A few words on long-term charts * US equities starting a period of underperformance? * Overcoming resistance * Chinese equities look vulnerable * Good looking country charts A few words on long-term charts I like looking at short-term charts because you can sometimes pick up some interesting psychological characteristics through divergences, candlesticks and one...   READ MORE 

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Market Roundup Video For May 2017

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Here is the link to the Market Roundup Live by Martin Pring 2017-05-02. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-05-02 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring...   READ MORE 

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DEFENSIVE CONSUMER STAPLES ARE WEAKENING -- WHILE ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE CONSUMER CYCLICALS ARE MARKET LEADERS -- CYCLICALS/STAPLES RATIO TURNS UP -- MARTIN MARIETTA AND VULCAN MATERIALS ARE HAVING A VERY STRONG DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER STAPLES ARE WEAKENING... Defensive parts of the market are starting to weaken. That includes consumer staples. At the same time, money is flowing back into more economically sensitive stock groups like consumer discretionary stocks (more on that shortly). That's normally a good sign for the market. Chart...   READ MORE 

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Gold Faces A Critically Important Technical Test In The Weeks Ahead

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Gold’s long term trading range * Watch those Gold shares for clues about Gold * Hail Silver? Gold’s long term trading range Gold is often regarded as a safe-haven investment, but is more normally held as a hedge against inflation. Chart 1 deflates the price by the CPI, so you...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE IS QUIETLY MOVING HIGHER -- INDIVIDUAL LEADERS ARE EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES, VARIAN MEDICAL, AND ABBVIE -- U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES ETF REPRESENTS THE STRONGEST PART OF HEALTHCARE -- BOSTON SCIENTIFIC IS ONE OF ITS LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTH CARE SPDR NEARS RECORD HIGH... Although it hasn't received much attention lately, the healthcare sector is quietly moving higher. In fact, healthcare is the third strongest sector this year behind technology and consumer cyclicals. And its chart looks promising. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV)...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ HITS NEW RECORD WHILE DOW INDUSTRIALS AND S&P 500 TURN UP -- SMALL CAPS HIT NEW RECORD AND SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- SO DO MATERIALS -- ALCOA LEADS ALUMINUM SHARES HIGHER -- FLIGHT FROM SAFE HAVENS PUSHES GOLD MINERS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET INDEXES TURN HIGHER ... The stock market is continuing to benefit from the "risk on" rally that started yesterday after the weekend vote in France. And all signs are currently positive. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares QQQ hitting a new record for the second day in row. The...   READ MORE 

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FRENCH VOTE SENDS GLOBAL STOCKS HIGHER -- FRANCE LEADS EUROPEAN RALLY -- EUROZONE ISHARES REACH THREE-YEAR HIGH -- A STRONGER EURO WOULD BOOST EUROZONE PERFORMANCE -- U.S. STOCKS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER AS SAFE HAVENS WEAKEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FRANCE LEADS EUROPE HIGHER... French stocks are leading big gains in eurozone stocks. A strong Euro is giving an even bigger boost to eurozone ETFs. Chart 1 shows MSCI France iShares (EWQ) surging more than 5% to the highest level in three years. That compares with a 4% gain in...   READ MORE 

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MONEY IS ROTATING INTO THE EUROZONE WHICH IS OUTPERFORMING THE U.S. -- BRITISH STOCKS ARE LAGGING BEHIND -- BRITISH ISHARES HAVE BEEN HURT BY A WEAK POUND -- ROTATION INTO EUROPE MAY SLOW U.S. RALLY, BUT SUGGESTS GLOBAL BULL MARKET IS STILL INTACT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EUROZONE STOCKS ARE ATTRACTING GLOBAL FUNDS ... Part of the reason that U.S. stocks haven't been doing so well during 2017 is that global funds are moving into other parts of the world. Especially to Europe. More specifically, the eurozone. The reason is simple. U.S. stocks are...   READ MORE 

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Some Markets And Key Ratios Are At The Brink, But At The Brink Of What?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Bond yields sending a deflationary message * Intermarket signals from equities are close to deflationary signals * So are similar measures for bonds * More on confidence relationships Wednesday’s close saw a lot of key ratios and some markets resting on key trendlines and moving averages. Since these benchmarks represent potential support,...   READ MORE