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BIG DROPS IN BOND YIELDS AND DOLLAR SHOW LOSS OF CONFIDENCE -- FINANCIALS, SMALL CAPS, AND TRANSPORTS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- FALLING STOCK INDEXES ARE SUFFERING SHORT-TERM CHART DAMAGE -- TRADERS COULD BE SELLING IN MAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP ... My Saturday message issued some short-term warnings for the market. Part of that warning came from falling bond yields which hinted that fixed income traders were turning more pessimistic. Another came from weak performances by banks, small caps, and transports which are leading the...   READ MORE 

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U.S. UNDERPERFORMS FOREIGN STOCKS -- DECADE OF U.S. LEADERSHIP MAY BE ENDING -- VANGUARD FOREIGN STOCK ETF HITS TEN-YEAR HIGH -- EUROZONE SHARES ALSO BREAK OUT -- UK ISHARES BENEFIT FROM STRONGER POUND -- RISING EMERGING CURRENCIES BENEFIT EM STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. STOCKS ARE GLOBAL UNDERACHIEVERS... Several of my previous messages have written about foreign stocks doing better than those in the U.S. this year. I'll come back to those foreign charts shortly. Chart 1, however, is designed to show how weak U.S. stocks have been...   READ MORE 

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Chinese ETF's Are Playing Good Cop Bad Cop

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Trying to replicate the Shanghai Composite with a Chinese ETF * Global Update Years ago, investing in China was a challenging proposition for US based investors. In recent years though, a number of ETF’s have been listed that embrace Chinese Indexes as well as specific sectors. The big daddy of...   READ MORE 

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DROP IN BOND YIELDS SENDS CAUTION SIGNAL -- THAT KEEPS BANKS ON THE DEFENSIVE -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS ARE SHOWING RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- AMAZON RISE OFFSETS DEPARTMENT STORE LOSSES -- TECHNOLOGY SHARES LEAD TAIWAN MARKET TO SEVENTEEN YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS DROP ON FRIDAY... Some caution crept into financial markets near the end of the week. Part of that was reflected in Friday's sharp drop in bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling back below its 50-day average in pretty decisive fashion....   READ MORE 

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When Does A Low VIX Reading Matter?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The VIX * The Dollar Index * The Euro * Swiss Franc * Japanese Yen The VIX Most of this piece is devoted to the dollar and some interesting looking currencies. However, I have been intrigued by a couple of articles and news stories recently appearing in the general purpose media. They have pointed...   READ MORE 

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FALLING COMMODITIES AREN'T DRIVING EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- TECHNOLOGY IS -- THAT'S ESPECIALLY TRUE IN SOUTH KOREA AND TAIWAN WHICH ARE EEM LEADERS -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR IS LEADING SEMICONDUCTOR ETF TO NEW HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITIES DIVERGE FROM EEM... One of the long-held principles of emerging market behavior is that they're closely correlated to the direction of commodity prices. That's because several large emerging markets are exporters of commodities (like Brazil and Russia). China is the world's biggest...   READ MORE 

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Sell In May And Go Away? Forget Stocks But How About Commodities?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* $CRB and oil break to the downside * The stock market says commodities are headed lower * Bond market participants leaning in a deflationary way * Watch those commodity currencies The usual “Sell in May and Go Away” articles are starting to appear bigly, and a case can indeed be made in that...   READ MORE 

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SECTOR RANKINGS AND WEIGHTINGS ARE STILL MARKET POSITIVE -- THE YEAR'S TOP FOUR SECTORS ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN HALF OF THE S&P 500 -- ANOTHER 15% ARE MATCHING S&P 500 PERFORMANCE -- ENERGY IS THE BIGGEST LAGGARD BUT ACCOUNTS FOR ONLY 8% OF S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SECTOR LEADERSHIP... One of the problems facing the current stock market is that some sectors have been rising, while others have suffered large losses. Since the start of the year, for example, technology has gained nearly 14% versus a 6.7% gain for the S&P 500. Energy stocks,...   READ MORE 

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RISING RATES PUNISH GOLD -- BASE METALS AND MINERS ARE ALSO FALLING -- CHINA WEAKNESS MAY EXPLAIN WHY -- FALLING COMMODITIES AND WEAK CANADIAN DOLLAR PUSH CANADA ISHARES BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE -- INSURANCE ETF GETS A BOOST FROM RISING BOND YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD ASSETS ARE ALSO FALLING... Add gold and gold miners to the list of former safe havens that are weakening. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) falling to a seven-week low today and back below its moving average lines. Gold miners are doing even worse. Chart 2 shows...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS MAY BE BOTTOMING -- BOND ETF FAILS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN UTILITIES AND REITS HINT AT LOWER BOND PRICES -- FINANCIALS MAY BE TURNING UP -- A HIGHER FINANCIALS/UTILITIES RATIO WOULD SIGNAL HIGHER YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD STILL IN UPTREND... Today's Fed announcement contained no surprises. However, the Fed's view that recent economic softness is "transitory" in nature appears to have caused an uptick in bond yields. Technical factors also appear to favor higher yields. I'...   READ MORE 

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Global Equities Trick or Treat?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A few words on long-term charts * US equities starting a period of underperformance? * Overcoming resistance * Chinese equities look vulnerable * Good looking country charts A few words on long-term charts I like looking at short-term charts because you can sometimes pick up some interesting psychological characteristics through divergences,...   READ MORE 

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Market Roundup Video For May 2017

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Here is the link to the Market Roundup Live by Martin Pring 2017-05-02. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-05-02 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring...   READ MORE 

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DEFENSIVE CONSUMER STAPLES ARE WEAKENING -- WHILE ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE CONSUMER CYCLICALS ARE MARKET LEADERS -- CYCLICALS/STAPLES RATIO TURNS UP -- MARTIN MARIETTA AND VULCAN MATERIALS ARE HAVING A VERY STRONG DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER STAPLES ARE WEAKENING... Defensive parts of the market are starting to weaken. That includes consumer staples. At the same time, money is flowing back into more economically sensitive stock groups like consumer discretionary stocks (more on that shortly). That's normally a good sign for the market. Chart...   READ MORE 

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Gold Faces A Critically Important Technical Test In The Weeks Ahead

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Gold’s long term trading range * Watch those Gold shares for clues about Gold * Hail Silver? Gold’s long term trading range Gold is often regarded as a safe-haven investment, but is more normally held as a hedge against inflation. Chart 1 deflates the price by the CPI, so...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE IS QUIETLY MOVING HIGHER -- INDIVIDUAL LEADERS ARE EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES, VARIAN MEDICAL, AND ABBVIE -- U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES ETF REPRESENTS THE STRONGEST PART OF HEALTHCARE -- BOSTON SCIENTIFIC IS ONE OF ITS LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTH CARE SPDR NEARS RECORD HIGH... Although it hasn't received much attention lately, the healthcare sector is quietly moving higher. In fact, healthcare is the third strongest sector this year behind technology and consumer cyclicals. And its chart looks promising. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV)...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ HITS NEW RECORD WHILE DOW INDUSTRIALS AND S&P 500 TURN UP -- SMALL CAPS HIT NEW RECORD AND SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- SO DO MATERIALS -- ALCOA LEADS ALUMINUM SHARES HIGHER -- FLIGHT FROM SAFE HAVENS PUSHES GOLD MINERS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET INDEXES TURN HIGHER ... The stock market is continuing to benefit from the "risk on" rally that started yesterday after the weekend vote in France. And all signs are currently positive. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares QQQ hitting a new record for the second day in row. The...   READ MORE 

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FRENCH VOTE SENDS GLOBAL STOCKS HIGHER -- FRANCE LEADS EUROPEAN RALLY -- EUROZONE ISHARES REACH THREE-YEAR HIGH -- A STRONGER EURO WOULD BOOST EUROZONE PERFORMANCE -- U.S. STOCKS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER AS SAFE HAVENS WEAKEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FRANCE LEADS EUROPE HIGHER... French stocks are leading big gains in eurozone stocks. A strong Euro is giving an even bigger boost to eurozone ETFs. Chart 1 shows MSCI France iShares (EWQ) surging more than 5% to the highest level in three years. That compares with a 4% gain in...   READ MORE 

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MONEY IS ROTATING INTO THE EUROZONE WHICH IS OUTPERFORMING THE U.S. -- BRITISH STOCKS ARE LAGGING BEHIND -- BRITISH ISHARES HAVE BEEN HURT BY A WEAK POUND -- ROTATION INTO EUROPE MAY SLOW U.S. RALLY, BUT SUGGESTS GLOBAL BULL MARKET IS STILL INTACT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EUROZONE STOCKS ARE ATTRACTING GLOBAL FUNDS ... Part of the reason that U.S. stocks haven't been doing so well during 2017 is that global funds are moving into other parts of the world. Especially to Europe. More specifically, the eurozone. The reason is simple. U.S. stocks are...   READ MORE 

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Some Markets And Key Ratios Are At The Brink, But At The Brink Of What?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Bond yields sending a deflationary message * Intermarket signals from equities are close to deflationary signals * So are similar measures for bonds * More on confidence relationships Wednesday’s close saw a lot of key ratios and some markets resting on key trendlines and moving averages. Since these benchmarks represent potential support,...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY SHARES LEAD MARKET LOWER AS CRUDE OIL DROPS TO TWO-WEEK LOW -- TWO ENERGY ETFS FALL TO NEW 2017 LOW -- DOW INDUSTRIALS CLOSE AT TWO-MONTH LOW -- S&P 500 REMAINS ON THE DEFENSIVE -- ON BALANCE VOLUME LOOKS WEAK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CLIMB IN GASOLINE SUPPLIES HURTS CRUDE... A surprising jump in gasoline supplies caused heavy selling in the price of crude oil and gasoline. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) falling nearly 4% today to the lowest level in two weeks. The USO also fell back below its...   READ MORE 

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Bull Market Correction Looks Likely To Continue

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Recent technical deterioration * Bonds and the recent false upside breakout * Gold’s false breakout also turned out to be “false” The long-term indicators for the equity market continue to look positive, as the major averages are comfortably above their key moving averages. Pretty well all measures of long-term...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELD FALLS TO FIVE MONTH LOW -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN HIGH YIELD BONDS IS BAD FOR STOCKS -- FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- S&P 500 CLOSES BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SAFE HAVEN BUYING PUSHES GOLD TO FIVE MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO FIVE-MONTH LOW... Bond yields have been slipping since March as investors have had second thoughts about the so-called Trump bump in stocks and the economy. Geopolitical concerns may also be causing profit-taking in stocks and buying of safe havens like bonds...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 ARE THREATENING THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES -- TECHNOLGY SELLING WEAKENS THE NASDAQ -- FINANCIALS AND TRANPORTS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM -- VIX HITS FIVE-MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND S&P 500 MAY BE SLIPPING BELOW 50-DAY LINES... The short-term trend for the market continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA) trading below its 50-day average in early afternoon trading. The DIA hasn't closed below that...   READ MORE 

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Friday's Trading Action Offers More False Signals

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

1. False moves in the precious metal pits 2. Outside day in silver tips the near-term balance to the bears 3. More false breaks in the bond pits Late last week I wrote that several markets had recently experienced false moves, known as whipsaws. It seems that Friday saw...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES STAY ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGES AFTER MISSILE ATTACK -- SMALL CAPS AND FINANCIALS NEED TO DO BETTER -- BOND YIELDS BOUNCE OFF BOTTOM OF 2017 TRADING RANGE -- DOLLAR RALLIES AS SAFE HAVEN YEN WEAKENS -- GOLD STRUGGLES AT 200-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HOLD 50-DAY LINES ... Entering today's trading, stocks were relatively flat on the week. Bond prices, however, were nearing the top of their 2017 trading range. Other safe haven assets like gold and the yen have been bouncing as well. Yesterday's missile attack...   READ MORE 

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Markets Have Experienced A Lot Of Fake Breakouts Recently

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A few words on false moves * US market experiences false upside breakout this week * Whipsaws in the sectors * European currency whipsaws A few words on false moves Prices in financial markets are driven principally by psychology. They effectively reflect people in action. The problem is, that people can and do...   READ MORE 

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PIPELINES ARE YEAR'S STRONGEST ENERGY GROUP -- ALERIAN MLP ETF COVERS THAT GROUP -- ONEOK AND MPLX ARE PIPELINE LEADERS -- TRANSCANADA CORP HOLDS 200-DAY LINE -- GLOBAL X MLP & ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ETF BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW JONES US PIPELINES INDEX IS TURNING UP ... My last two messages suggested that the energy sector was trying to stabilize near its 200-day average. That's based on the assumption that the price of oil is also bottoming. My Saturday message further suggested that oil service stocks...   READ MORE 

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Market Round Up Video Recording 2017-04-04

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Here is a link to this week's video. Market RoundUp With Martin Pring 2017-04-04 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or...   READ MORE 

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BUILDING MATERIALS STOCKS MAY ALSO BE BOTTOMING -- MARTIN MARIETTA AND VULCAN MATERIALS FIND SUPPORT NEAR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS LEAD ENERGY SECTOR HIGHER AND SHOW BETTER RELATIVE STRENGTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... My Thursday message showed three stock groups that had fallen to their 200-day averages and were starting to stabilize. They included commodity-related groups like energy and metals and mining ETFs. They also included heavy construction stocks like Fluor (FLR) and...   READ MORE 

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HEAVY CONSTRUCTION AND MINING STOCKS TEST 200-DAY AVERAGES -- SO ARE ENERGY SHARES AS CRUDE OIL STRENGTHENS -- % OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE REMAINS STRONG -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS NEW RECORD -- SMALL CAPS OUTPACE LARGE CAPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEAVY CONSTRUCTION INDEX BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... This week's rebound by major stock indexes off their 50-day averages has been encouraging. So is the fact that several economically-sensitive stock groups are finding support at their 200-day lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US...   READ MORE 

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Monday Was A Very Important Inflexion Point For Several Markets

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two short-term indicators that can support higher prices * Global equities ex the US are poised for a mega breakout * Three markets poised for a major breakout * Commodities coming to life? It’s a well-known axiom on Wall Street that it’s not the news that is important but...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REBOUND FROM SUCCESSFULL TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGES -- ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCKS LEAD WHILE STAPLES AND UTILITIES LAG -- BOND PRICES WEAKEN WHILE HIGH YIELD BONDS REBOUND -- GOLD AND THE EURO MEET RESISTANCE AT 200-DAY LINES AS DOLLAR REBOUNDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK ETFS REBOUND OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Yesterday's message showed major stock indexes stabilizing at their 50-day averages. Today, they're rebounding impressively today off that rising support line. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA) having its best day in a month. Chart...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES TEST 50-DAY LINES -- BOND PRICES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR FALLS TO 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD REACHES RESISTANCE -- MARKETS HAVE REACHED INFLECTION POINT WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRUMP RALLY IS OVER OR JUST PAUSING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET INDEXES TRY TO FIND SUPPORT AT THEIR 50-DAY LINES... Today's lower open pushed several stock indexes down to their 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to regain lost ground in afternoon trading. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 trying to...   READ MORE 

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What Are Bond Market Intermarket Relationships Saying About Inflation?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The TIP/TLT Ratio reflects swings in commodity prices * Watch that Technology/Staples ratio for a possible bullish breakout * US breaking down against Global Equities The TIP/TLT ratio reflects swings in commodity prices When bond yields  are compared to commodity prices there is definitely a connection, as we can...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR CONTRIBUTES TO RISING EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES AND STOCKS -- MEXICAN PESO AND STOCK ETF ALSO GAIN GROUND -- A RISING YUAN IS HELPING BOOST CHINESE STOCKS -- STOCK GAINS EVAPORATE ON POSTPONEMENT OF HEALTHCARE VOTE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES SUPPORT RISING STOCKS... Previous messages have shown the rise in emerging market stocks, partially owing to the drop in the U.S. dollar. The same can be said of EM currencies. The red line in Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) rising to the highest level...   READ MORE 

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MAJOR STOCK INDEXES SUFFER BIGGEST DROP THIS YEAR -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LOOK EVEN WORSE -- BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS LOWER ON FALLING BOND YIELDS -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD -- EURO NEARS TEST OF FEBRUARY HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK ETFS SELLOFF... The market is suffering its worst day this year. Chart 1 show the PowerShares Nasdaq QQQ experiencing a downside reversal day after hitting a record high this morning. Its 14-day RSI has fallen out of overbought territory over 70 for the first time since December which...   READ MORE 

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Five Markets That Are Approaching Critical Junctures

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* US Dollar completes a head and shoulders top * Dollar right at key up trendline against the rest of the world * Gold caught in a tight trading range * West Texas oil also restrained in a tight trading range * Mexico---a chance to jump over the wall? * Emerging markets to the rescue...   READ MORE 

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ALL-WORLD INDEX HITS NEW RECORD -- FOREIGN STOCKS CONTINUE TO RALLY -- ASIA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- EUROPE ALSO LOOKS STRONG -- THAT INCLUDES IRELAND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FTSE ALL-WORLD INDEX HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the FTSE All-World Stock Index ($FAW) trading at a new record high. The FAW includes stocks from 47 developed and emerging markets. It just recently cleared its 2015 high which resumed its major uptrend. That's a positive...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS AND BONDS RALLY ON FED ANNOUNCEMENT -- PULLBACK IN YIELDS BOOSTS REITS AND UTILITIES, WHILE BANKS LAG -- DOLLAR DROP BOOSTS GOLD -- STOCK INDEXES REACT POSITIVELY -- EMERGING MARKETS LEAD FOREIGN STOCK ETFS HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED MOVE VIEWED AS DOVISH... The Fed hiked rates today as expected, with expectations for two more hikes this year. Judging from immediate market reactions, the Fed announcement is being viewed as somewhat dovish. For one thing, bond yields are dropping. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling...   READ MORE 

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When Will Rising Rates Hit The Stock Market?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* No consistent relationship between rates and equity prices * Three step and a stumble * Combining interest rate movements with equity trends No consistent relationship between rates and equity prices A lot of prognosticators have recently raised concerns that rising rates will soon affect equities in an adverse way. Last week at...   READ MORE