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TRANSPORTATION ISHARES HIT FIVE MONTH HIGH -- AIRLINES STOCKS ARE MAIN REASON WHY -- AMERICAN AIRLINES AND UAL CLEAR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- WEEKLY TRANSPORTATION CHART LOOKS PROMISING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANSPORTATION ISHARES TURN UP... My message from last Wednesday expressed concern about the inability of the Dow Transports to keep pace with the Dow Industrials. According to Dow Theory, both Dow Averages should be rising together. A jump in transportation stocks is relieving those concerns. The daily bars in Chart...   READ MORE 

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Commodities - Trick Or Treat?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two possible scenarios for commodities * The primary trend picture * Commodity breadth * What’s the bond market saying? Two possible scenarios for commodities The last time I wrote about commodities my comments had a bullish slant. The CRB Composite ($CRB), having experienced an approximate 8-week correction involving a successful test of...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS BOUNCE ON WEAK JOB REPORT -- BUT TREASURY YIELDS BOUNCE -- 10-YEAR JAPANESE YIELD HITS FIVE-MONTH HIGH -- S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX HITS NEW RECORD -- HONG KONG ISHARES REACH TWO-YEAR HIGH -- EAFE ISHARES END AT 2016 HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P BOUNCES BUT ON LOW VOLUME... The stock market climbed on Friday on the weak August job figure on lower expectations for a September Fed hike. Friday's intermarket action, however, was somewhat muted. It's true that stocks jumped, but on lower volume. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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WEAK JOBS REPORT LOWERS ODDS FOR SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE -- STOCKS LIKE THE NEWS -- TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD DROPS -- WEAKER DOLLARS LIFTS COMMODITY PRICES AND STOCKS TIED TO THEM -- EMERGING MARKETS LEAD FOREIGN BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DISAPPOINTING JOBS REPORT... This morning's August jobs report saw a gain of 151,000 jobs versus estimates for a gain of 180,000. That low number is giving a boost to stocks, and helping to unwind some of the recent hedges against a possible September rate hike. Most...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR RISES ON POSSIBLE RATE HIKE -- THAT'S PUSHING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER -- TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH -- PROSPECT FOR HIGHER RATES BOOSTS BANKS BUT HURTS UTILITIES -- DOW TRANSPORTS ARE DIVERGING FROM INDUSTRIALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR CONTINUES TO FIRM ... The rally in the dollar that started late last week is still intact. The rally started on Friday following statements from the Fed that seemed to suggest a rate hike sooner rather than later. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the PowerShares US Dollar Index...   READ MORE 

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Look Up Not Down: This Time For Interest Rates

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates * What are the short-term technicals saying about rates? * High versus low beta Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates Last week I wrote that the vast majority of long-term stock market indicators were...   READ MORE 

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Look Up Not Down

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* More corrective activity to come? * Are we there yet with Dow Theory? * Does the correction matter? The market has been moving sideways for the last 2 months, thereby frustrating bull and bear alike. Chart 1 shows that the technical position, so far as breadth is concerned, has been improving. That...   READ MORE 

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CHINA A-SHARES REACH EIGHT-MONTH HIGH ON STRONG VOLUME -- SHANGHAI STOCK INDEX ALSO ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- ANNOUNCEMENT OF SHENZHEN-HONG KONG STOCK CONNECT SHOULD BOOST INTEREST IN MAINLAND CHINESE STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CSI 300 CHINA A-SHARES COMPLETE CHART BOTTOM ... Last Friday's market message showed a big rise in the Hong Kong stock market, and suggested that mainland A-Shares might be starting to turn up as well. They did that this week. Chart 1 shows the Deutsche X-trackers CSI 300 China...   READ MORE 

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FALLING GREENBACK BOOSTS CANADIAN DOLLAR -- IT'S ALSO PUSHING COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER -- ENERGY SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- OIL SERVICE ETF IS ALSO TURNING UP -- ENERGY LEADERS ARE SCHLUMBERGER, BAKER HUGHES, AND MARATHON OIL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITY CURRENCIES... The falling U.S. dollar continues to support commodity prices and currencies tied to commodities. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) falling to the lowest level in two months. A falling dollar is positive for foreign currencies, especially those of commodity producing countries....   READ MORE 

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Is It Time To Emphasize Commodities And Reduce Bond Exposure?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Six Stages * Characteristics of Stage IV * The stock market’s view on commodities * All that glitters The Six Stages In the latest bi-weekly Market Round Up Webinar I looked at several inter-asset relationships to see which ones are likely to outperform going forward (watch the webinar here). To start...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITY CURRENCIES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN -- CANADIAN DOLLAR MAY BE TURNING UP -- EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES RISE WITH STOCKS -- HONG KONG STOCKS HAVE BEEN CHINESE LEADERS -- BUT A-SHARES MAY BE BOTTOMING AS YUAN STABILIZES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CANADIAN DOLLAR STRENGTENS ... My Tuesday message wrote about the fact that stock ETFs in Canada and Mexico were looking stronger. I also mentioned their stronger currencies resulting from the rebound in crude oil and other commodity prices. With oil rebounding some more this week, commodity currencies in Australia, Canada, Mexico,...   READ MORE 

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The World Order May Be Changing

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The S&P 500 versus the world * If things go against the US, where would be a good place to be? * A true contrarian play The S&P 500 versus the world For several years the US stock market has been outperforming the rest of the world in...   READ MORE 

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MSCI ALL WORLD STOCK INDEX HITS 12-MONTH HIGH -- VANGUARD ALL-WORLD EX US ETF ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- CANADIAN STOCKS CONTINUE TO CLIMB -- BRAZIL ISHARES HAVE STRONG YEAR -- MEXICO ISHARES MAY BE TURNING UP -- GERMAN STOCKS LEAD EUROPE HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX HITS 12-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the MSCI All Country World Index iShares (ACWI) trading at the highest level since last July. The index of world stocks recently broke through a "neckline" drawn over its November/May highs. The ACWI includes stocks in...   READ MORE 

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The Technical Case For A Major Reversal In Bond Yields

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Two charts that may soon look to the bullish side for rates Short-term technicals Watch those metals In the last 35 years, analysts and investors have gotten used to seeing ever lower rates, even negative ones in Europe and Japan. It seems to me that things may be getting out...   READ MORE 

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Bearish Short-Term Equity Indicators May Bring Tears To The Bears Themselves!

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Short-term technicals * Two indicators that have not yet gone bullish * More base building by commodities * Oil greasing the way? Last week we looked at some of the longer-term equity indicators. I concluded that prices were likely to work their way significantly higher for the balance of the year, despite historically...   READ MORE 

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STRONG JOB REPORT PUSHES STOCKS AND BOND YIELDS HIGHER WITH FINANCIALS IN THE LEAD -- BANK, BROKER, AND INSURANCE ETFS STRENGHEN -- LEADERS INCLUDE BANK OF AMERICA, CHARLES SCHWAB, AND LINCOLN NATIONAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STRONG JOB REPORT PUSHES BOND YIELDS HIGHER... An unusually strong July job report is causing more optimism in financial markets. When that happens, stock prices usually rise and bond prices fall which is what's happening today. When bond prices fall, bond yields jump which is also happening. Chart...   READ MORE 

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JUMP IN 10-YEAR JAPANESE BOND YIELD MAY BE HINTING AT TREASURY YIELD BOTTOM -- BOND PRICES ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN -- SO ARE BOND PROXIES -- BANKS AND FINANCIALS STRENGTHEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR JAPANESE YIELD SURGES TO FOUR MONTH HIGH... Chart 1 show the 10-Year Japanese Bond yield surging over the last week to the highest level since March. That's the biggest weekly jump in recent memory. Last Friday's disappointing BOJ bond buying program followed by yesterday'...   READ MORE 

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Are Commodities About To Take Off?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The long-term trend * Shorter-term aspects * The stock market’s view Several weeks ago I suggested that commodity prices were likely to experience a correction of some kind. I also felt that any digestive process might well take the form of the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR DROPS ON WEAK GDP REPORT -- YEN SURGES ON BOJ DISAPPOINTMENT -- BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX BOUNCES OFF TRENDLINE -- EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES HIT 12-MONTH HIGH -- EAFE ISHARES NEAR TEST OF SPRING HIGHS -- QQQ TOUCHES NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR DROPS AS YEN SURGES... A combination of factors are pushing the U.S. Dollar sharply lower. One is today's report of GDP growing only 1.2% in the second quarter. That pushed Treasury yields lower and bond prices higher and weakened the dollar. Chart 1 shows the...   READ MORE 

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Better Days Lie Ahead

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* More long-term US Equity indicators turning bullish * The case for a spirited rally * Testing the theory At my webinar last week I pointed out a couple of observations on the US equity market. First, that more and more indicators are signaling a bull market. Second, there are some characteristics that...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ GETS BOOST FROM APPLE AND BIOTECHS -- APPLE SURGES 7% HIGHER ON STRONG VOLUME -- TECH SPDR HITS NEW HIGH -- BIOTECH SPDR RISES TO SIX-MONTH HIGH AS AMGEN BUILDS ON BULLISH BREAKOUT -- PHARMACEUTAL ETF ALSO COMPLETES BASE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POWERSHARES QQQ NEARS OLD HIGH... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares QQQ climbing again today and in the process of testing its early December high at 114.75. The QQQ achieved a bullish breakout earlier this month and has shown market leadership since then. That can be seen by the rising...   READ MORE 

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TECHNOLOGY SHOWS NEW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- EBAY, MICROSOFT, AND QUALCOMM GAP HIGHER -- CISCO ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- NASDAQ NEARS OLD HIGHS -- BIOGEN AND AMGEN LEAD BIOTECHS HIGHER -- HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS HAVE STRONG WEEK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY SPDR SHOWS NEW LEADERSHIP... Stocks had another good week with the Dow and S&P 500 ending Friday at new records. One of the other positive developments was new upside leadership by technology which was the week's strongest sector. Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR...   READ MORE 

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What's Up/Down With The Dollar?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Dollar Index-too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro * A closer look at the long-term cross Dollar relationships * What are the Dollar sympathy indicators saying? * Short-term technicals The Dollar Index - Too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro A few months ago I declared the Dollar Index to...   READ MORE 

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HOMEBUILDERS LEAD ITB HIGHER -- LENNAR MAY BE NEXT HOMEBUILDER TO BREAK OUT -- THE XHB OFFERS BROADER EXPOSURE TO HOUSING-RELATED STOCKS -- OWENS CORNING IN STRONG UPTREND WHILE USG IS BREAKING OUT -- MOHAWK NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT AS WHIRLPOOL RALLIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

US HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TURN UP ... Several of my recent messages have written about the upturn in homebuilding shares. A lot of that has been due to the drop in bond yields and mortgage rates. Improvement in the housing area is also an encouraging sign for the economy. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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Equity Markets Start To Broaden Their Appeal

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Whipsaw leads to sharp rally * Global equity markets starting to heat up * Broad sector participation * What’s going on with the yield curve? Whipsaw leads to sharp rally Chart 1 compares the Dow ETF (DIA) with my Dow Diffusion Indicator, an oscillator that monitors a basket of Dow Stocks above...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS RESUME UPTREND -- ALL WORLD STOCK INDEX EXTENDS BULLISH BREAKOUT -- ASIAN EX JAPAN ISHARES TURN UP -- WILSHIRE 5000 INDEX NEARS RECORD -- TRANSPORTS NEAR TEST OF APRIL HIGH -- RAILS COMPLETE BASING PATTERN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX ISHARES BUILDS ON BULLISH BREAKOUT... Global stocks resumed their uptrend today in a replay of Tuesday's shift toward riskier assets. Chart 1 shows the MSCI All Country World Stock Index iShares (ACWI) building on its bullish breakout that took place on Tuesday when...   READ MORE 

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REBOUND IN GLOBAL BOND YIELDS AND BRITISH POUND ACCELERATE RISK ON TRADE AS GOLD AND YEN SELL OFF -- EMERGING MARKETS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUT -- SO DO ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX ISHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY YIELDS REBOUND ALONG WITH STERLING... A surge in global bond yields is contributing to a rotation out of safe havens and into riskier assets. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield gapping 9 basis points higher to 1.52%. That puts the TNX back above its July 2012 closing...   READ MORE 

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Breakout Or Fakeout

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Take a deep 'breadth' * Broadening formations * Long-term indicators support an upside breakout The recent breakout by the S&P and Dow to new high ground has caught the attention of market observers. Some say that the market is overvalued and that prices are unlikely to move higher....   READ MORE 

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MAJOR STOCK INDEXES NEAR RECORD HIGHS -- NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- SMALL CAPS TURN HIGHER -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND INDUSTRIAL ETFS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- INTEL AND SEMICONDUCTRS LEAD NASDAQ HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES NEAR NEW RECORDS... A strong job report on Friday helped push stocks close to record highs. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 250 points (1.4%) on Friday to reach a two-month high. A test of its April high is imminent. The S&...   READ MORE 

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Why The June Employment Report Is Worth Closer Attention Than Usual

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Labor market crystal ball * What are the credit markets saying * Commodities ripe for a correction? Labor market crystal ball The weakness of last month’s Employment Report was a surprise to just about everyone, including yours truly. One month doesn’t make a trend, but two months of bad data...   READ MORE 

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TECHNICAL ODDS FAVOR HIGHER STOCK PRICES -- ON BALANCE VOLUME FOR NYSE INDEX HITS NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- BOTH VERSIONS OF THE NYSE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE HIT NEW RECORDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX STILL LOOKS LIKELY... My May 25 market message suggested that the stock market still had more work to do on the upside. That was based primarily on Elliott Wave Analysis which suggested that the market was still in a Wave 4 correction/consolidation pattern...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY AVERAGES -- NASDAQ REGAINS 200-DAY LINE -- CELGENE AND MERCK LEAD HEALTHCARE SPDR TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST -- HOMEBUILDERS LEAD CYLICALS HIGHER AS DR HORTON BREAKS OUT -- FACEBOOK HAS STRONG DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET HAS UPSIDE REVERSAL DAY ... After trading lower this morning, stocks rallied this afternoon to respectable gains. That upside reversal also helped the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 bounce off their 50-day moving averages as shown in Charts 1 and 2. Chart 3 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO FOUR-YEAR LOW -- LOWER MORTGAGE RATES ARE BOOSTING HOMEBUILDERS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ETF NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- KBH HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- OIL SERVICE ETF CONTINUES TO SHOW LEADERSHIP -- TRANSOCEAN CLEARS 200-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TESTING 2012 LOW... The plunge in global bond yields continues. Yesterday's statement from the Bank of England of its intention to lower rates sometime this summer pushed the British 2-year yield into negative territory for the first time, and its 10-Year to another record low...   READ MORE 

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ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX REGAINS 200-DAY LINE -- EMERGING MARKETS LEAD GLOBAL REBOUND -- BRAZIL AND CHINESE ETFS STRENGTHEN -- ENERGY AND HEALTHCARE SPDRS CLEAR 50-DAY LINES -- OTHER SECTOR ETFS TURN BACK UP -- S&P 500 RETAKES 200-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX BACK OVER 200-DAY AVERAGE... Investor confidence is returning to global stocks after the short-term panic caused by last Friday's Brexit vote. Improvement is being seen in both developed and emerging markets. Chart 1 shows the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) climbing back...   READ MORE 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS LEAD STOCK BOUNCE -- EUROPEAN STOCK INDEX TESTS FEBRUARY LOW -- YIELD ON BRITISH BOND FALLS BELOW 1% -- 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY TEST 2012 BOTTOM -- EURO DROP IS ALSO BOOSTING DOLLAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EUROPEAN STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL BOUNCE ... A rebound in European stocks is leading a rebound in the states. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Europe Ex UK Index climbing 2.5%. France and Germany are up a similar amount. What may be significant from a charting standpoint is that the index...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCK SELLOFF CONTINUES -- BRITISH POUND HITS NEW LOW -- EUROPEAN STOCKS HIT HARD AGAIN -- US STOCK INDEXES BREAK MAY LOW -- DOW AND S&P 500 FALL BELOW 200-DAY LINES -- TELECOM, UTILITIES, AND REITS BENEFIT FROM PLUNGING BOND YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. STOCK INDEXES BREAK CHART SUPPORT... The global selling of stocks that started on Friday continued into today. Big losses in Europe signaled another bad day. The British Pound fell to another 30-year low (Chart 1). Chart 2 shows London's FTSE 100 losing more than 2% and...   READ MORE 

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Trend Of US Equities Slipping In A Southerly Direction

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Low momentum close to price highs is often followed by above-average declines * Failed patterns are often followed by above average price moves * Those credit spreads are widening again Last week I wrote that there were some positive short-term signs that suggested the reaction to Brexit might be overdone. Monday’s...   READ MORE 

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BREXIT VOTE HAMMERS GLOBAL STOCKS -- BRITAIN AND EUROPE LEAD DECLINES -- GOLD, TREASURIES, AND THE YEN SOAR -- RISING DOLLAR PUNISHES OTHER COMMODITIES -- VIX SURGES TO 2016 HIGH -- US STOCK INDEXES HEAD TOWARD MAY LOWS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WORLD MARKETS ARE SHOCKED AT BRITISH VOTE... Even though polls showed the British vote to be very close, a lot of money bet that the Brits would vote to stay in the European Union. That was true with London bookies and global investors. Strong currency and stock action on Wednesday...   READ MORE 

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Brexit Or Bropportunity? What The Charts Are Saying

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Selling climax at the opening * UK versus European Monetary Union * What are global equities saying? * What’s up with the pound? Selling climax at the opening There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market does not discount the same thing twice. Back in early June, we saw...   READ MORE 

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BRITISH POUND AND UK STOCKS STRENGTHEN -- UK ISHARES HIT SEVEN- MONTH HIGH -- EUROPEAN SHARES ARE ALSO RISING -- DOW JONES EUROPE INDEX LOOKS TO BE BOTTOMING -- WEEKLY CHART OF WILSHIRE 5000 COMPOSITE STOCK INDEX STILL LOOKS POSITIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STERLING SHOULD BE BOTTOMING... I'm going to take the chance of ignoring the British vote on Thursday and concentrate instead on the charts themselves. If it's true that markets have a way of discounting (or anticipating) events, that's the best we can do. The...   READ MORE