* Long-term perspective * What are gold shares saying? * Gold and the dollar * Conclusion The question of whether gold is in a primary bull market keeps coming up in the Q & A part of my bi-weekly Tuesday webinars. Given the recent drop in the price, this question is becoming increasingly relevant.... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH... The price of oil continues to rise. Chart 1 shows the United Stated Oil Fund (USO) climbing nearly 3% to reach the highest level in nearly four months. That's giving a big boost to energy shares which are leading the rest of the... READ MORE
20+YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES TEST 200-DAY AVERAGE... Before getting to rate-sensitive stocks ETFs that are testing their 200-day averages, it's necessary to first look at what Treasury ETFs are doing. That's because they've all been falling together. Chart 1 shows the 20-Year Treasury... READ MORE
STOCK BOUNCE FADES AS YIELD CONTINUE TO RISE... A morning bounce in stocks faded by the end of the day. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the day at its low. That keeps stocks in a short-term downside correction and well below a falling 50-day average (blue... READ MORE
* The long-term perspective * Short-term indicators partially bullish * Sectors offering positive relative action The Long-term perspective The US equity market has been moving sideways since July and has certainly worked off any short-term overbought condition. Some indicators are oversold, while others are still declining. During a bear market, these short-term indicators... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... Bond yields around the world continue to climb, led by U.S. Treasuries. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 4 basis points to 1.76% which is the highest level in four months. The TNX has also moved above its 200-day... READ MORE
BRENT HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH -- WTIC IS CLOSE... The pledge of a joint Russian and Saudi agreement to limit oil output has pushed the commodity even higher, and has increased the odds of a major bottom being completed. Chart 1 shows the price of Light Crude Oil ($WTIC) gaining 3%... READ MORE
* Long-term technicals for the pound * Short-term technicals for the pound * TIP of the day! * The potential spoiler? Long-term technicals for the pound Chart 1 shows that the British Pound has completed a 30-year top. The price objective, calculated by taking the maximum depth of the formation and projecting it down... READ MORE
CURRENCY DIRECTION REALLY MATTERS IN JAPAN... My Tuesday message explained why foreign currency direction is important when investing in foreign stocks. That message showed why a falling British pound hurts American investors investing in U.K. stocks. Currency direction is also important when investing in Japanese stocks. Chart 1 is... READ MORE
* Long-term picture at a critical juncture point * Global commodities poised for an upside breakout * What about commodities against other assets? * If commodities break out so will yields? Long-term picture at a critical juncture point Chart 1 shows the long-term technical position of the CRB Composite ($CRB), where you can see... READ MORE
FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... With bond yields on the rise, financial stocks are starting to show market leadership. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) rising above its 50-day average in today's trading. It's only the fourth sector SPDR to do that (after technology,... READ MORE
TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO REBOUND... The continuing rebound in Treasury yields is helping some stock groups while hurting others. It's hurting dividend-paying stocks like staples, telecom, utilities, and REITs which continue to sell off. Rising rates are also boosting the dollar which is pushing gold and miners sharply... READ MORE
DEUTCHE BANK BOUNCE SUPPORTS BANK STOCKS... In a reversal from yesterday, financial stocks are leading a Friday bounce in global stock markets. And, like yesterday, European banks are a big reason why. Concerns about contagion from Deutche Bank weakened bank shares yesterday. The daily bars in Chart 1, however, show... READ MORE
* Could it be 1987 deja-vu all over again? * Why it’s not 1987 * Conclusion A savvy subscriber to my monthly Intermarket Review sent me a copy of Chart 1 yesterday. Whenever he forwards me a relationship in chart format, it is usually pointing out a different conclusion than that set... READ MORE
PROPOSED OPEC CUTS BOOST OIL AND ENERGY STOCKS... Yesterday's announcement of proposed production cuts by OPEC this November pushed the price of crude oil sharply higher along with energy shares. The daily bars in Chart 1 show WTIC Light Crude Oil (plotted through yesterday) trading above its 50-... READ MORE
TRANSPORTATION ISHARES STILL LOOK POSITIVE... My market message from three weeks ago (Wednesday, September 7) showed Transportation iShares climbing to a five-month high. I took that as a sign that transportation stocks were on the verge of an upside breakout. A pullback in the transportation group since then has prevented... READ MORE
Rationale for the Special K At my Chartcon presentation, I outlined the characteristics and uses of my Special K indicator and introduced a new advanced scan for identifying trading signals. I’ll talk about that, as well as how you can set up such scans later, but first a rationale... READ MORE
* Major stock averages are at major support * Stocks or bonds? * What about the rest of the world? * Inflation/deflation inter-asset relationships The media seems to be fixated with potential central bank action this week but the markets are barely able to keep their eyes open. This is becoming one-big-yawn! I... READ MORE
TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... I've been writing about the upturn in global bond yields, which has boosted Treasury bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield trading above 1.70% in today's trading. Foreign yields are bouncing as well. One of the side-effects of... READ MORE
* Broadening formation is still bullish * What are the short-term indicators saying? * What are important intermarket relationships saying about the recent drop? * Is Dr. Copper about to make a house call? On balance, the stock market has dropped since early last week, but peripheral price action has been constructive. That leads... READ MORE
ANOTHER JUMP IN BOND YIELD PUSHES BOND PRICES LOWER... Treasury yields continue to bounce which is pushing bond prices and stocks sharply lower. Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield jumping another six basis points to 1.73%. That's pushing bond prices lower. Chart 2 shows the 20+... READ MORE
JUMP IN BOND YIELDS WASN'T A BIG SURPRISE... This week's jump in bond yields started on Thursday when the ECB failed to extend its bond buying program. That helped push the 10-Year German bund yield into positive territory for the first time since July. UK bond... READ MORE
The long-term picture A couple of weeks ago I started to make the case for rising rates, based partly on the kind of price action featured in Chart 1. However, what was needed to reverse some of the longer term trends of falling yields and rising prices in the credit... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS TO TWO-MONTH HIGH... The upturn in global bond yields that started Thursday on ECB inaction continues today. Bond yields are rising sharply around the globe (after hawkish comments from another Fed governor). Ten year yields in Germany and the UK are up 7 and 10 basis... READ MORE
TREASURY YIELDS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing six basis points to 1.60%. That followed a jump in European bond yields following the ECB failure to announce any additional monetary stimulus. That caused selling in European sovereign bonds, which led to selling here.... READ MORE
TRANSPORTATION ISHARES TURN UP... My message from last Wednesday expressed concern about the inability of the Dow Transports to keep pace with the Dow Industrials. According to Dow Theory, both Dow Averages should be rising together. A jump in transportation stocks is relieving those concerns. The daily bars in Chart... READ MORE
* Two possible scenarios for commodities * The primary trend picture * Commodity breadth * What’s the bond market saying? Two possible scenarios for commodities The last time I wrote about commodities my comments had a bullish slant. The CRB Composite ($CRB), having experienced an approximate 8-week correction involving a successful test of... READ MORE
S&P BOUNCES BUT ON LOW VOLUME... The stock market climbed on Friday on the weak August job figure on lower expectations for a September Fed hike. Friday's intermarket action, however, was somewhat muted. It's true that stocks jumped, but on lower volume. Chart 1... READ MORE
DISAPPOINTING JOBS REPORT... This morning's August jobs report saw a gain of 151,000 jobs versus estimates for a gain of 180,000. That low number is giving a boost to stocks, and helping to unwind some of the recent hedges against a possible September rate hike. Most... READ MORE
DOLLAR CONTINUES TO FIRM ... The rally in the dollar that started late last week is still intact. The rally started on Friday following statements from the Fed that seemed to suggest a rate hike sooner rather than later. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the PowerShares US Dollar Index... READ MORE
* Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates * What are the short-term technicals saying about rates? * High versus low beta Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates Last week I wrote that the vast majority of long-term stock market indicators were... READ MORE
* More corrective activity to come? * Are we there yet with Dow Theory? * Does the correction matter? The market has been moving sideways for the last 2 months, thereby frustrating bull and bear alike. Chart 1 shows that the technical position, so far as breadth is concerned, has been improving. That... READ MORE
CSI 300 CHINA A-SHARES COMPLETE CHART BOTTOM ... Last Friday's market message showed a big rise in the Hong Kong stock market, and suggested that mainland A-Shares might be starting to turn up as well. They did that this week. Chart 1 shows the Deutsche X-trackers CSI 300 China... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITY CURRENCIES... The falling U.S. dollar continues to support commodity prices and currencies tied to commodities. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) falling to the lowest level in two months. A falling dollar is positive for foreign currencies, especially those of commodity producing countries.... READ MORE
* The Six Stages * Characteristics of Stage IV * The stock market’s view on commodities * All that glitters The Six Stages In the latest bi-weekly Market Round Up Webinar I looked at several inter-asset relationships to see which ones are likely to outperform going forward (watch the webinar here). To start... READ MORE
CANADIAN DOLLAR STRENGTENS ... My Tuesday message wrote about the fact that stock ETFs in Canada and Mexico were looking stronger. I also mentioned their stronger currencies resulting from the rebound in crude oil and other commodity prices. With oil rebounding some more this week, commodity currencies in Australia, Canada, Mexico,... READ MORE
* The S&P 500 versus the world * If things go against the US, where would be a good place to be? * A true contrarian play The S&P 500 versus the world For several years the US stock market has been outperforming the rest of the world in... READ MORE
MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX HITS 12-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the MSCI All Country World Index iShares (ACWI) trading at the highest level since last July. The index of world stocks recently broke through a "neckline" drawn over its November/May highs. The ACWI includes stocks in... READ MORE
Two charts that may soon look to the bullish side for rates Short-term technicals Watch those metals In the last 35 years, analysts and investors have gotten used to seeing ever lower rates, even negative ones in Europe and Japan. It seems to me that things may be getting out... READ MORE
* Short-term technicals * Two indicators that have not yet gone bullish * More base building by commodities * Oil greasing the way? Last week we looked at some of the longer-term equity indicators. I concluded that prices were likely to work their way significantly higher for the balance of the year, despite historically... READ MORE