* Twenty thousand, a media point on the charts * The real 20,000 event * International markets that deserve a closer look Twenty thousand, a media point on the charts For some time, our friends in the media have been touting Dow 20,000 ($INDU) as if something magical is going to... READ MORE
ADX AND RSI LINES ISSUE WARNINGS... My last couple of messages have repeated the idea that the post-election stock rally looks stretched. Last Friday's message showed the stock/bond ratio, the value/growth ratio, and the transportation/utilities ratio also in overbought territory. Momentum and seasonal factors... READ MORE
* Three steps and a stumble * Interest rates are now driving the US Dollar * Charts for the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc continue to erode Three steps and a stumble The late great Edson Gould coined the term “Three Steps And A Stumble”. He was referring to his observation that when... READ MORE
STOCK/BOND RATIO IS OVERBOUGHT... Several market messages over the past couple of months used relative strength ratios to paint a more bullish picture of the stock market, and a more bearish picture for bonds. While those ratios have strengthened considerably, especially since the election, I'm a little... READ MORE
FED OFFERS SLIGHTLY STEEPER PATH FOR 2017... The Fed surprised no one today one by raising short-term rates by a quarter of a point. It did, however, offer a steeper path for rate hikes in 2017. That may have caught more attention. Bond yields climbed which boosted bank stocks... READ MORE
* Some key averages showing signs of temporary exhaustion * Energy burnt out? * Defensives and interest sensitives looking more positive * What about those bonds? I have been bullish on the stock market for some time and in terms of the main trend I still am. I also council on focusing on the... READ MORE
POWERSHARES QQQ NEARS NEW RECORD... A lot has been made recently about domestic-oriented American businesses leading the market rally (like small caps, retailers, and transports to name a few). And how large tech stocks have gone from market leaders to market laggards. Technology companies derive nearly two-thirds of... READ MORE
* Using Gold as a barometer for commodity prices * Gold versus other precious metals * Gold and the stock market Earlier in the week I wrote an article pointing out the fact that the Gold price ($GOLD), technically speaking, had reached, what seemed to me, to be a critical technical point. That... READ MORE
EURO FALLS ON ECB... The ECB had some good and bad news for the Euro today. The ECB offered to extend its bond buying program for an additional nine months after next March. But it also announced that it was reducing the amount of bond purchases. The market interpreted the... READ MORE
AUTO PARTS INDEX TURNS UP... My message from last Thursday was headlined: "Autos Drive Cyclicals Higher". It showed an index of auto stocks achieving a bullish breakout led by GM and Ford. Auto parts are today's cyclical leaders. That shouldn't be surprising since they&... READ MORE
* Will the current short-term oversold level in Gold trigger a rally to reverse long-term bear signals? * Gold leads commodities * Gold breaks down against some commodities Will the current short-term oversold trigger a sufficient rally to reverse long-term bear signals? Earlier in the year $GOLD proved to... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ... One of the signs of growing strength behind the post-election stock market rally is that it's being led higher by economically-sensitive stocks like cyclicals and industrials. [We'll deal with industrials shortly]. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR... READ MORE
* A different way of looking at the VIX * What about global equities? * Sectors are largely pointing north * Are commodities about to break out? The market has been rising in an uninterrupted fashion since early November, on the back of a Trump election victory. The question naturally arises as to whether... READ MORE
OIL SPIKES ON OPEC CUT... The agreement by OPEC to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day has pushed the price of crude $3 (7%) higher in today's trading. The spike in oil is giving a huge boost to energy stocks which are leading the... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL METALS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... The huge rally in industrial (base) metals continues. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) climbing to the highest level since mid-2015. The DBB reflects rising aluminum, copper, and zinc prices. Iron ore and steel prices are also surging in Chinese... READ MORE
RETAILERS LEAD CYCLICALS TO NEW HIGHS... My message from last Monday wrote about apparel retailers leading retail stocks higher which were leading the cyclical sector higher. The same headline could be written again today. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) rising above its August high to a new... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL CLIMBS ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE... Renewed optimism for an OPEC output cut has pushed crude oil 4% higher in today's trading and has given a big boost to energy shares and the rest of the stock market. Chart 1 shows WTIC Light Crude oil rising above... READ MORE
* Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign * What does this mean for housing stocks? * Housing conclusion * Small cap big profits? Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign Sometimes very important developments for the market receive widespread attention, quickly experiencing a swing in sentiment as... READ MORE
TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ALSO HITS NEW 2016 HIGH... Most recent attention has been focused on the surge in the 10-Year Treasury yield to the highest level since last December (middle line in Chart 1). That's based on expectations for stronger economic growth and higher inflation. It&... READ MORE
SOME TECHNOLOGY WINNINGS WENT INTO FINANCIALS... A lot is being made of the fact that technology stocks have underperformed the broader market since last Tuesday's election. I suggested last week that technology selling was most likely a rotation out of some expensive technology stocks (mainly in the Internet)... READ MORE
S&P RETAIL SPDR SURGES ... My last message on Thursday mentioned a rotation into discretionary sectors like retailers and out of defensive consumer staples. That rotation is looking even more impressive today as retail stocks are strong. Chart 1 shows the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) surging nearly... READ MORE
* What’s the direction of the primary trend of interest rates? * What do the shorter-term maturities say? * Appraising the short-term technicals In early September, I wrote an article suggesting that things were beginning to fall in place for higher yields. Since then they have edged up a bit,... READ MORE
DOW THEORY LOOKS STRONG... Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at a new record high today. That's a positive sign. But so is the fact that the Dow Transports achieved a bullish breakout on Monday. That puts both Dow Averages in sync on the upside for the... READ MORE
STOCKS SURGE AFTER WEAK NIGHT... Today's strong stock market builds one surprise on top of another. The first surprise was a Trump victory. The second is today's sizable stock market gain. It was widely expected that a Trump victory would push stocks sharply lower. And it... READ MORE
* A brief synopsis of Dow Theory * Transports could be explosive * Was there anything wrong with Monday’s rally? * Market remains short-term oversold * Good looking ETF’s Monday's explosion in prices sent the Dow Transports well above their previous intermediate high. This price action confirms the buy signal... READ MORE
FBI ANNOUNCEMENT CAUSES BIG RISK-ON DAY... The Sunday afternoon FBI announcement that it was ending its Hillary Clinton email investigation with no charges caused a huge risk- on trade the day before the presidential election. Stocks have surged as much as 2% around the world. A stronger dollar, and... READ MORE
* What’s happening at the margin? * Short-term technical position oversold…but * Gold breaks out against bonds * Dollar showing weakness What’s happening at the margin? Last week I wrote an upbeat article pointing out that the stock market was oversold on a near-term basis as it approached a... READ MORE
LIFE INSURERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Rising bond yields continue to give a boost to financial stocks like life insurers. Bear in mind that premium income in insurance stocks is invested mostly in fixed income markets. Higher bond yields mean higher income. Life insurers are leading the financial sector higher today.... READ MORE
S&P 500 BREAKS SUPPORT AS VIX SURGES... Election jitters are taking a toll on stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling below its September/October lows to a four month low. All other major stock indexes are falling as well. That leaves the SPX in... READ MORE
MORE BOND CHARTS ... I've been writing about how the recent upturn in bond yields has been pushing bond prices lower (primarily due to rising commodity prices). Not all bond categories are falling at the same rate however. When inflationary pressures are starting to pull bond yields higher, longer... READ MORE
RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE BOOSTING GLOBAL BOND YIELDS... I find it amusing listening to TV talking heads trying to explain why global bond yields have started to rise (pushing bond prices sharply lower). They don't seem to have noticed that commodity prices have risen more than 20% since... READ MORE
* Seasonals are bullish * Current condition of some short-term indicators * The bullish part of the year * Time to raise those beta glasses? The stock market has really been in a trading range for the last two years. At my bi-weekly webinar this week, I pointed out that several long-... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing again today after finding support along its 200-day moving average. Rising yields are giving the usual lift to financial shares, banks and insurers in particular. Chart 2 shows the S&P Bank SPDR (KBE)... READ MORE
POWERSHARES BASE METALS FUND JUMPS 2%... Base metal prices like iron ore and steel are seeing big gains in China. That strength is spilling over into aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc. That's giving a big boost to global stocks tied to those commodities. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares... READ MORE
* Long-term perspective * What are gold shares saying? * Gold and the dollar * Conclusion The question of whether gold is in a primary bull market keeps coming up in the Q & A part of my bi-weekly Tuesday webinars. Given the recent drop in the price, this question is becoming... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH... The price of oil continues to rise. Chart 1 shows the United Stated Oil Fund (USO) climbing nearly 3% to reach the highest level in nearly four months. That's giving a big boost to energy shares which are leading the rest of... READ MORE
20+YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES TEST 200-DAY AVERAGE... Before getting to rate-sensitive stocks ETFs that are testing their 200-day averages, it's necessary to first look at what Treasury ETFs are doing. That's because they've all been falling together. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
STOCK BOUNCE FADES AS YIELD CONTINUE TO RISE... A morning bounce in stocks faded by the end of the day. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the day at its low. That keeps stocks in a short-term downside correction and well below a falling 50-day... READ MORE
* The long-term perspective * Short-term indicators partially bullish * Sectors offering positive relative action The Long-term perspective The US equity market has been moving sideways since July and has certainly worked off any short-term overbought condition. Some indicators are oversold, while others are still declining. During a bear... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... Bond yields around the world continue to climb, led by U.S. Treasuries. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 4 basis points to 1.76% which is the highest level in four months. The TNX has also moved... READ MORE