Earlier in the week I reviewed several US market sectors from the point of view of their potential strength or weakness. In this article I’ll cover the rest and then some. If you know what I mean by the term “Nirvana Template” you can skip the next paragraph and... READ MORE
In my Tuesday webinar, I opined that the US equity market is pretty close to a make or break point. While several indicators were still bearish it would not take much in the way of upside action to turn them positive. Of course, they never make it easy, and right... READ MORE
GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF CONTINUES TO SOAR... My market message from March 7 showed major upturns in industrial and precious metal mining stocks. I made the point that silver stocks were doing better that gold miners. That was due to the fact that silver is both an industrial and... READ MORE
ENERGY SPDR TRADES ABOVE 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... My weekend message showed the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) rising up to test its 40-week moving average for the third time since last May. I also pointed out that weekly MACD lines had already exceeded their fourth quarter highs, which increased the odds... READ MORE
FALLING BOND YIELDS HURTS BANKS ... Treasury bond yields continue to drop. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield touching the lowest level since February. Part of that is buying of Treasury bonds in an overbought stock market. Part of it is also historically low sovereign bond yields in Europe... READ MORE
* The Coppock Curve tells us the market is at a significant juncture point * Those pesky credit spreads are deteriorating again * The US credit markets are close to some important signals The Coppock Curve tells us the market is at a significant juncture point Chart 1 features a long-term smoothed momentum... READ MORE
FTSE WORLD INDEX BACK BELOW 200-DAY LINE... Last Wedneday's message showed the FTSE All World Stock Index ($FAW) trying to move above its 200-day moving average. Although it rose above that resistance line for a couple of days, Chart 1 shows that it's back below it... READ MORE
* A test of the bear market low for commodities is underway * Relative commodity action favors metals and agriculture * Stocks to continue to outperform commodities This week I am focusing on commodity prices, or more specifically on the Commodity Research Bureau Composite ($CRB) to see what might need to take place... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR REACHES THREE-MONTH HIGH... Money is continuing to rotate into healthcare stocks which had been the year's weakest sector. It's been the market's strongest sector for the last two trading days. Chart 1 shows the HealthCare Sector SPDR (XLV) reaching the highest level... READ MORE
BIOTECHS LEAD HEALTHCARE HIGHER... Last Friday's message showed that healthcare was the year's weakest sector, and most of that was because of a very weak biotech group. [It also mentioned that biotechs were holding back the QQQ. More on that later]. For the first time in... READ MORE
* Consistently reliable primary trend indicator on the fence * Strong breadth * Equities overbought and lacking in volume * Rates headed lower? Consistently reliable primary trend indicator right on the fence The US equity market continues to bump up against resistance at a time when most short-term oscillators are overstretched. Since volume has... READ MORE
FTSE ALL WORLD INDEX OUT OF DANGER... Back on February 17, I wrote a market message showing the FTSE All World Stock Index ($FAW) starting to find support at its 2011 peak. [The FAW includes 2900 stocks in 47 developed and emerging countries, including the US]. I pointed out that... READ MORE
QQQ CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... The market was led higher by the Nasdaq market today. Last Friday's message showed the PowerShares QQQ Trust testing its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows the QQQ clearing that important chart barrier today. Since the QQQ is comprised of the largest 100 non-financial... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 HOLD ABOVE 200-DAY LINES... Given the size of the market rally since mid-February, it's not surprising to see it spend the past week consolidating. While the market had its first down week after five up weeks, very little changed on the charts... READ MORE
* World indexes not yet above their 200-day MA’s * USA indexes very overstretched short-term * Two reliable primary trend indexes at make or break points Three world equity indexes StockCharts carries three stock market indexes measuring “The World”. All of them are overbought on a short-term basis, two are below their... READ MORE
STAPLES START TO LOSE LEADERSHIP... Consumer staples were market leaders during December and January as the market started to weaken. That's normal. The daily bars in Chart 1 plot the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) along with the XLP/SPX relative strength ratio since last October. The XLP/SPX... READ MORE
* World markets are just below key resistance * Junk bonds break through their 200-day MA. Will the break hold? * World Bond Index breaks to the upside Last week I called for some corrective action in the US equity market based on what, at the time, appeared to be a couple of... READ MORE
U.S. DOLLAR FALLS TO FIVE-MONTH LOW ... Yesterday's dovish statement from the Fed that it was scaling back plans to raise short-term rates had the dual effect of pushing interest rates and the dollar lower. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index (UUP) falling to the lowest... READ MORE
FED SCALES BACKS 2016 RATE CUTS... The Fed left rates unchanged as expected. However, it also scaled back any potential rate hikes for this year. Previous estimates of three or four possible hikes were lowered to two. It also sounded more cautious on the global economy. Initial market reactions were... READ MORE
A LOT OF 200-DAY LINES ARE BEING TESTED OR EXCEEDED... Major stocks indexes in the U.S. are moving up to challenge their 200-day averages. Those are important tests because the 200-day line is the measure most used by chartists to distinguish uptrends from downtrends. A number of group indexes... READ MORE
PERCENT OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE REACHES TWO-YEAR HIGH... The debate continues about whether the stock market faces the likelihood of another downleg. Several technical indicators seem to suggest that a major selloff is unlikely. Here's the first one. I recently showed the NYSE percent of stocks... READ MORE
* Inflection point for junk bonds? * Fake out rally a la 2008? * Short-term oil rally over? Inflection point for junk bonds? It has been a feature of this bear market that stocks sell off in concert with junk bonds and oil prices as investors fret over potential energy company defaults. Not... READ MORE
METALS AND MINING SPDR CLEARS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... Precious and base metal stocks are continuing their strong rally on the back of rising commodity prices. Chart 1 shows the S&P Metals and Mining SPDR (XME) trading above its 200-day average and at the highest level in five months. Its... READ MORE
LEAD INDUSTRIALS HIGHER... Economically-sensitive industrial stocks continue to show new strength. A leading industrial group is the Dow Jones US Commerical Vehicles and Trucks Index ($DJUSHR). Chart 1 shows that index climbing more than 2% today to a new three month high. It includes big percentage gainers like Joy Global... READ MORE
* Credit spreads about to turn? * A PPO that calls primary trends * Record High Indicator The market is now starting to respond positively to several bullish intermediate indicators. I still believe the main trend is down, but it seems like a good idea to look at three currently bearish indicators and... READ MORE
ALCOA AND FREEPORT MCMORAN LEAD MARKET HIGHER ... A lot of attention is being paid to the recent upturn in the price of oil and energy shares, and its potentially positive influence on the global economy and stocks. An even more impressive upturn is taking place in industrial metals and their... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGES ... The market's short-term trend continues to strengthen. Today's strong gains have pushed all major U.S. stock indexes above their 50-day moving averages. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at a two-month high, with a good shot at... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS ARE STILL LOW... I recently showed the 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield ($TNX) bouncing off an "island reversal" bottom formed a couple of weeks ago (see circle), and pointed out that pattern usually signals a "short-term" change in direction. Chart 1 shows the TNX moving... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM TREND STILL UNCERTAIN... Stocks opened lower with oil today, but are trying to stabilize with the commodity in afternoon trading. Chart 1, however, shows a somewhat neutral picture for the market's short-term trend. After successfully testing its January low earlier this month, the S&P 500... READ MORE
* Intermediate rally/consolidation for US equities still on the menu * Test of the lows is likely first * Emerging markets continue to look vulnerable * Gold showing strong technical signs The Intermediate Rally/trading range The intermediate rally possibilities, which I have been discussing for several weeks, is still a probability. That’... READ MORE
DOW IS THE FIRST TO CLEAR FEBRUARY HIGH ... A strong Monday stock rally pushed U.S. stock indexes right up against initial overhead barriers at their early February peak and 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials being the first to exceed its February high. It is still, however,... READ MORE
NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX TESTS RESISTANCE... Stocks had their best week of the year. While that's encouraging, they'll have to do a lot more to signal that the global correction/bear market has run its course. I'm focusing on the NYSE Composite Index (NYA) today... READ MORE
* Five days of Armageddon * Does the British market still lead the US market Five Days of Armageddon For some time, I have been drawing your attention to the fact that many intermediate indicators have been flashing buy signals that even in primary bear markets have triggered some kind of a... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF FEBRUARY HIGH ... My weekend message suggested that stocks had put in a short-term bottom. We'll find out soon enough if last week's bottom was even more significant. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 Index nearing a test... READ MORE
* World breadth series signal that global equities are ready to advance * Dollar faces an important technical test Sometimes when the market declines, things actually improve, and that’s what may have been happening this week. In my most recent article, Intermediate Indicators Signal a Rally but Remember It’s a... READ MORE
MARKET BENDS BUT DOESN'T BREAK... It looked on Thursday like the major U.S. stock indexes were on the verge of closing below their January lows. A Thursday afternoon rebound, however, followed by a 2% gain on Friday kept those support levels intact. Chart 1 shows the Dow... READ MORE
TREASURY YIELDS FALL TO THREE-YEAR ... The rapid descent in global bond yields continues uninterrupted. The 10-Year Japanese bond yield recently fell into negative territory for the first time in its history. That's helping drive sovereign bond yields lower everywhere else. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS START TO SHOW SOME BOUNCE... Transportation stocks have been one of the weakest parts of the stock market over the last year. In fact, the downtrend in that economically-sensitive group was cited several times last year as a negative warning for the economy and stock market. The daily bars... READ MORE
* Monday may have been a successful test of the January low * Five inter-market relationships break out * The 5-year yield breaks down For the last two weeks I have been pointing out that several intermediate type indicators that have traditionally signaled rallies were in a bullish mode. The problem is that... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LEADS MARKET LOWER... It's never a good sign to see economically-sensitive stocks leading the market lower. That's because they're most closely tied to investor confidence (or lack therof) in the U.S. economy. But that's what happened this week.... READ MORE