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MORE STOCKS ARE TRADING ABOVE THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- S&P 500 REGAINS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- ITS EQUAL WEIGHT VERSION STILL LAGS BEHIND -- SMALL CAPS MAY BE STARTING TO CATCH UP -- CYCLICALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY ARE WEEK'S SECTOR LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MORE STOCKS CLEAR THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES ... My Wednesday message showed that the percent of NYSE stocks above their 200-day average had declined during November to as low as 27% (about where it was at the same time in 2011). I suggested that the number needed to exceed its earlier peak...   READ MORE 

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REGENERON, VERTEX, AND AMGEN LEAD BIOTECHS HIGHER -- AFLAC AND PRUDENTIAL ARE LIFE INSURANCE LEADERS -- STOCK INDEXES TRY TO RECLAIM 200-DAY AVERAGES -- SMALL CAPS NEED TO SHOW MORE BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BIOTECH ISHARES TRIES TO REGAIN UPTREND... Chart 1 shows Biotech iShares (IBB) testing a falling trendline drawn over its July/September peaks. It has already regained its 50-day average, but remains below its 200-day line. Its relative strength ratio (top of chart) is also starting to recover from its September...   READ MORE 

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Market Explodes On Bad News. Has The Year-End Rally Begun?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two bar reversal says the market is going higher near-term * Credit spreads at key juncture point * Oil showing tentative sign of a short-term reversal but confirmation is required They say that a market that does not decline on bad news is usually ready to reverse to the upside. Over the...   READ MORE 

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MAJOR STOCK INDEXES FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGES -- PLUNGING RETAILERS WEAKEN CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR -- CRUDE OIL HEADED FOR TEST OF AUGUST LOW -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHES CRB INDEX BELOW 2008 LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGES... The market suffered a setback this week when major U.S. stock indexes fell back below their 200-day averages. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite ending below that support line on Friday. Chart 2 shows the Dow Industrials spending Thursday and Friday below...   READ MORE 

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CYCLICALS LOSE MARKET LEADERSHIP -- PLUNGING RETAILERS ARE A CAUTION SIGN FOR THE MARKET -- THE S&P 500 NEARS A TEST OF ITS SEPTEMBER HIGH -- SMALL CAPS LOSE MORE GROUND -- VIX CLIMBS BACK OVER 20

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LOSES LEADERSHIP... One of the more positive signs throughout 2015 has been leadership by consumer discretionary stocks. In fact, cyclicals have been the market's strongest sector all year. That can be seen by its rising relative strength ratio on top of the chart. But not...   READ MORE 

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RISING DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITIES NEAR SIX-YEAR LOWS -- GOLD, COPPER, CORN, AND CRUDE TEST YEARLY LOWS -- WEAKNESS IN METAL AND ENERGY SHARES ARE STARTING TO WEIGH ON THE BROADER MARKET -- S&P 500 RETESTS SUPPORT AT ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING DOLLAR PUSHES CRB INDEX NEAR AUGUST LOW ... My previous message explained that one of the casualties of a rising U.S. Dollar would be weaker commodity markets. With the dollar having recently risen to a new seven-month high, commodity prices are in retreat. The brown line in Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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Onward And Downward, The Correction Is Likely To Continue

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* KST for the VIX triggers a sell signal for equities in general * Junk Bonds have reversed to the downside * Dollar breaks to the upside on a broad basis * Some commodities break to new lows The corrective process we talked about last week is still underway. Sometimes the technical position improves...   READ MORE 

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STRONG JOBS REPORT PUSHES BOND YIELDS AND DOLLAR HIGHER -- RISING DOLLAR MAY BE HELPING SMALL CAPS TO PLAY CATCHUP -- RISING RATES HELP BANKS, BROKERS, AND INSURERS -- BUT HURT UTILITIES AND REITS -- RISING BOND YIELDS FAVOR CYCLICALS OVER STAPLES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS END THE WEEK MIXED, BUT STILL IN UPTREND... Friday's jobs report caused some minor profit-taking in major stock indexes, but not enough to alter the current uptrend. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 dropping slightly Wednesday through Friday (but closing up for the week). I&...   READ MORE 

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STRONG JOBS REPORT PUSHES RATES SHARPLY HIGHER -- THAT HELPS BANKS, BROKERS, AND INSURERS -- BUT HURTS UTILITIES -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD AND OTHER COMMODITIES LOWER -- EMERGING MARKETS SLIP ON RISING DOLLAR AND PROSPECTS FOR HIGHER BOND YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SURPRISINGLY STRONG JOBS REPORT... Today's surprisingly strong jobs report took markets by surprise, but is having predictable intermaket results. First, it pushed Treasury yields sharply higher. That's based on the belief that the strong report increases the odds for a Fed rate hike in December. Chart...   READ MORE 

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November Should Tell Us Whether US Equities Are In A Bull Or Bear Market

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Market pullback likely in November * Rates rising across the yield maturity spectrum * Dollar Index close to an upside breakout * Commodities look weaker The short-term condition of the market is very overstretched, to say the least. Even if we are still in a bull market some form of November correction appears...   READ MORE 

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YIELDS RISE ON YELLEN OPTIMISM -- THAT PUSHED DOLLAR HIGHER AND GOLD AND OTHER COMMODITIES LOWER -- OVERBOUGHT STOCKS ARE TESTING OLD HIGHS AND MAY NEED A BREATHER -- FOREIGN STOCKS ALSO EXPERIENCE SELLING NEAR RESISTANCE LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

YELLEN PUSHES YIELDS HIGHER... Janet Yellen sounded a hawkish tone again today about the possibility of a December rate hike. That pushed U.S. rates higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield climbing to the highest level in two months. Shorter-term rates climbed even more. That caused selling...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS HAVE STRONGEST OCTOBER IN FOUR YEARS -- S&P 500 ENDS NEAR TWO-MONTH HIGH BUT LOOKS OVER-EXTENDED -- EQUAL WEIGHT STOCK ETFS NEED TO CATCH UP -- JANUARY EFFECT SHOULD BOOST SMALL CAPS -- WEEKLY MACD LINES TURN POSITIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HALLOWEEN INDICATOR ... Stocks had the best October since 2011. That bodes well for the rest of the fourth quarter and the next six months. The three months between November and January are traditionally the best three months of the year. As is the six-month period between November and April. As...   READ MORE 

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Upside Breakout In The Dollar Index May Be Close At Hand

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Market breadth on the rally not so hot * Credit spreads are a likely bell weather for equities * Dollar Index reaches critical resistance The power of the recent rally has been a surprise to most observers including myself. The big question is whether it is part of a topping out process,...   READ MORE 

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FED'S HAWKISH TONE BOOSTS BOND YIELDS -- THAT HELPS BANKS AND INSURERS, BUT HURTS UTILITIES -- DOLLAR RALLY HURTS GOLD -- ENERGY STOCKS REBOUND WITH CRUDE OIL -- S&P 500 HITS TWO-MONTH HIGH -- SMALL CAPS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS RISE ... Today's Fed statement had a slightly more hawkish tone than markets were expecting, and left the door open for a possible December rate hike. After a brief dip, stocks ended strong. Financials bounced sharply on the Fed statement, while rate-sensitive utilities sold off. A bounce...   READ MORE 

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INDUSTRIALS LEAD STRONG STOCK RALLY -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR CLEARS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- BIG MOVES SEEN IN BOEING, MMM, SOUTHWEST AIRLINES, AND RAYTHEON -- SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD TECHNOLOGY HIGHER -- PLUNGING EURO BOOSTS EUROZONE STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INDUSTRIAL SPDR TURNS UP ... Throughout the summer, I expressed concern about the weak performance in the economically-sensitive industrial sector. That situation has taken a dramatic turn for the better. Chart 1 shows the Industrials SPDR (XLI) leaping 3% today and trading above its 200-day average. The XLI has also broken...   READ MORE 

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HOMEBUILDERS RISE ON GOOD NEWS -- FALLING BOND YIELDS PUSH REITS TO SIX MONTH HIGH -- NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE CLEARS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ TESTS 200-DAY LINE -- INTEL AND MICROSOFT SHOW TECHNOLOGY LEADERSHIP -- APPLE MAY BE TURNING UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDERS BUILD ON GOOD NEWS... Yesterday's announcement that homebuilding sentiment had jumped to a ten-year high was followed by today's report that September housing starts had the second biggest jump in eight years. Not surprisingly, homebuilders are having a strong day. The daily bars in Chart...   READ MORE 

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Lots Of Markets Are At Crucial Juncture Points

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* US Equities remain short-term overbought * Yield curves starting to steepen (decline) * All bond maturities are at critical trendlines * Dollar about to break down? * Gold about to break out? US Equities Earlier in the week I indicated that several short-term indicators such as the Price Percentage Oscillator(PPO) using an 8/...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- BANK OF AMERICA, CITIGROUP, AND GOLDMAN SACHS LEAD -- EMERGING MARKETS LEAD FOREIGN STOCKS HIGHER -- S&P 500 CLOSES AT TWO-MONTH HIGH AS NASDAQ CLOSES ABOVE 50-DAY LINE -- VIX FALLS 10% TO TWO-MONTH LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BANK STOCKS HAVE STRONG DAY ... Financial stocks led a strong day in stocks. Several big bank stocks had big chart days. The daily bars in Chart 1 show Bank of America (BAC) surging more than 3% in heavy trading. It's also testing its 50- and 200-day moving averages....   READ MORE 

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DOLLARS WEAKENS AS TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO THREE MONTH LOW -- THAT COMBINATION IS PUSHING PRECIOUS METALS HIGHER -- GOLD HAS RETRACED 50% OF ITS PREVIOUS BULL MARKET WHICH PUTS IT IN A POTENTIAL SUPPORT ZONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR FALLS WITH U.S. RATES... U.S. interest rates have been dropping on reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike this year. Chart 1 shows the 2-Year Treasury Yield falling yesterday to the lowest level in three months. That's important because that shorter term yield is more...   READ MORE 

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Is it Time for a Digestion of Recent Equity Gains?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The 8/16 PPO for the SPX is overbought * Nasdaq is running into major resistance * The HYG experiences a false upside breakout and a bearish shooting star The week before last, I drew your attention to the fact that since the August sell-off recent market gyrations had been truncated in...   READ MORE 

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BREADTH INDICATORS TURN UP -- DOLLAR WEAKNESS SHOULD START TO HELP EARNINGS -- SO SHOULD A REBOUND IN ENERGY AND MATERIALS -- AND A REBOUND IN EMERGING MARKETS -- UPTURN IN EM CURRENCIES SUPPORTS EM STOCK ADVANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

PERCENT OF STOCKS ABOVE MOVING AVERAGE LINES TURNS UP ... Breadth indicators continue to show marked improvement. My Wednesday message showed the percent of NYSE stocks above their 50-day average turning up. I stated that it needed to climb above 50% to turn its trend higher. The blue line in Chart...   READ MORE 

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Is The Dollar Likely To Make A Big Move Soon?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The primary trend in the dollar is still bullish but.. * Broad momentum measures of the dollar are negative * Euro is caught between two possible scenarios The US Dollar Index ($USD) has been in a trading range for several months and may be about to break out, but which way? The...   READ MORE 

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SIGNS OF COMMODITY BOTTOM ARE GOOD FOR GLOBAL STOCKS -- OVERSOLD ENERGY SECTOR REBOUNDS -- FREEPORT MCMORAN LEADS COPPER RALLY -- SILVER ALSO TURNS UP -- PERCENT OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 5O-DAY AVERAGE IMPROVES -- HIGH YIELD BOND ETF BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY SECTOR MAY BE BOTTOMING... Global stocks continue to bounce off important support levels. One of the supporting factors is new strength in commodity-related energy and material stocks. I've written previous messages on new signs of strength in commodity markets -- especially copper and energy. My August 27...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS START WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE -- IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS FOR EMERGING AND DEVELOPED FOREIGN MARKETS CONTINUE TO HOLD -- SAME IS TRUE FOR U.S. STOCK INDEXES WHICH ARE UP SHARPLY -- STOCK INDEXES APPROACH TEST OF 50-DAY LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKETS LEAD GLOBAL RALLY ... Stocks around the world are continuing the rally that began Friday after the very weak U.S. jobs report. Part of the reason for the renewed optimism may be the belief that the weak job report took a Fed rate hike off the table for...   READ MORE 

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US Stock Market Successfully Tests its August 24 Low

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* 8/16 PPO triggers a buy signal for the S&P Composite * Resource-based stocks showing signs of improving relative action * Bonds experience an exhaustion day Earlier in the week I noted that the market was getting pretty close to the August lows but that the indicator that I usually...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS PLUNGE ON WEAK JOBS REPORT -- BANKS, BROKERS, AND INSURERS LEAD FINANCIALS LOWER -- WEAKER DOLLAR HELPS BOOST GOLD AND GOLD MINERS -- STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE TO TEST SUPPORT LEVELS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD PLUNGES... This morning's dismal jobs report pushed Treasury prices sharply higher and bond yields lower. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield plunging to the lowest level since August. Treasury bond prices saw the biggest gains, while investment grade corporate bonds also bounced. High yield...   READ MORE 

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Bond Market Quality Spreads Are Signaling More Trouble Ahead

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Test of the August 24 intraday lows is at hand * Junk bonds complete 3-year top * Credit spread may be leading the Dollar Index higher * The yields on short-term treasury maturities may be peaking Testing the lows Normally I like to use the KST to determine when momentum has reversed direction....   READ MORE 

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BOND INVESTORS PLAY DEFENSE -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES UNDERPERFORM TREASURIES -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE EVEN WEAKER -- ENERGY SECTOR WEIGHS ON HIGH YIELD ETF -- NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX STILL IN A DOWNTREND -- THE VIX STILL BOUNCING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND ALIGNMENT SHOWS CAUTION ... Money has been flowing into the relative safety of bonds as stocks prices have slid. That money hasn't been flowing equally into all bond categories however. Most of the money has been flowing into Treasury bonds which are the safest of all. Investment Grade...   READ MORE 

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BIOTECH DIVE PULLS NASDAQ AND HEALTHCARE SECTOR LOWER -- BIG PHARMA ALSO WEAKENS -- RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX MAY BE THE FIRST TO TEST ITS AUGUST LOW -- THAT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TEST FOR IT AND THE REST OF THE MARKET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BIOTECHS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE... Biotechs have gone from market helpers to market hurters. The daily bars in Chart 1 show Biotech iShares (IBB) falling to the lowest level since August, and the lowest closing price in more than six months (in very heavy trading). The IBB lost 13% on the...   READ MORE 

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Which Sectors, If Any, Are Poised To Lead The Market Higher?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

It’s no secret that I have been bearish on the equity market for some time. Nevertheless, it's always a good idea to remain flexible and look at all angles, so at Tuesday's webinar Greg asked me a great question. What would need to happen to...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RETREAT TOWARD SUMMER LOWS -- TREASURY BOND PRICES GAIN -- HIGH YIELD BONDS FALL WITH STOCKS -- DOLLAR DROP PUSHES SOME MONEY INTO GOLD -- VIX STAYS ABOVE CHART SUPPORT -- AUTOS AND BIOTECHS WEAKEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AUTOS AND BIOTECHS WEAKEN ... Two groups that had recently held up better than others have experienced heavy selling this week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Automobile Index falling back below its 50-day line. Its relative strength line (top of chart) has started to weaken as well. Volkswagen has lost...   READ MORE 

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FED INACTION BOOSTS BONDS AND SAFE HAVEN ASSETS WHILE HURTING STOCKS -- WITH SHORT-TERM BOUNCE ENDING, A RETEST OF SUMMER LOW APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND OCTOBER -- THAT WILL HELP DETERMINE IF THIS IS A CORRECTION OR BEAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED DECISION TO LEAVE RATES ALONE SHAKES MARKETS ... I'm not sure what the Fed said on Thursday that got everyone upset. It acknowledged weakness in foreign markets (like China) and low inflation. We already knew about plunging Chinese stocks and weak commodity prices. Even so, markets took a...   READ MORE 

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SHORT-TERM STOCK BOUNCE HAS PROBABLY ENDED -- A RETEST OF SUMMER LOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY -- VIX BOUNCES OFF 20 SUPPORT LEVEL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETEST OF AUGUST LOWS LIKELY... The short-term bounce that started nearly a month ago appears to have run its course. That suggests that a retest of the August low is more likely. I recently applied Fibonacci retracement lines over the Dow Industrials to show where new selling might appear. Chart...   READ MORE 

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Market Loses Confidence in the Fed

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Thursday’s action represents a bearish Pinocchio bar. * Long-term indicators remain bearish. * Will Friday’s trading have a silver lining? Thursday’s Pinocchio bar In last week’s article I pointed out that several market averages had experienced bearish engulfing patterns and that a test of the lows was likely....   READ MORE 

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FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED -- BONDS RALLY ON FALLING YIELDS -- DOLLAR WEAKNESS BOOSTS GOLD -- STOCKS SUFFER DOWNSIDE REVERSAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INITIAL REACTIONS... The Fed left short-term rates unchanged today. The two main reasons given were lower inflation and weakness in foreign markets. Ms. Yellen, however, stressed in her press conference that the U.S. economy still looked solid and that a rate hike by yearend was still possible. Not surprisingly,...   READ MORE 

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CHINA BOUNCE BOOSTS ASIAN ETFS -- ENERGY STOCKS SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP AS CRUDE OIL CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- OIL STABILITY ALSO BOOSTS EMERGING MARKETS IN MEXICO AND RUSSIA -- TESLA AND FORD LEAD AUTOS -- VIX NEARS TEST OF 20 SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHINESE STOCKS REBOUND ... Emerging markets are getting some relief from a rebound in China. Hong Kong stocks are up 511 points (2.3%) while Shanghai gained 147 points (4.9%). Chinese ETFs are also bouncing off important support levels while in a deeply oversold condition. Chart 1 shows HongKong iShares...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS RISE AS MONEY LEAVES BONDS FOR STOCKS -- BANK SPDR IS BACK ABOVE ITS 200-DAY LINE -- ETRADE IS A FINANCIAL LEADER -- UPS HELPS PULL TRANSPORTS ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P 500 CLEARS 20-DAY LINE AS MARKET BOUNCES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS SURGE ON CONSUMER SPENDING... Today's jump in bond yields is being attributed to gains in consumer spending. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) climbing above its 50-day average to the highest level in a month. When yields rise, bond prices fall. Chart 2...   READ MORE 

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Six Reasons Why the Fed Will Not Raise Rates; One Bad Reason Why it Will

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Consumer sentiment flags a sell signal * Short rates rise before commodity prices do.  That's not supposed to happen. * TIPS break key support The biggest question in financial markets this week is "will she or won't she?". The ”she” in this case is Janet Yellen...   READ MORE 

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HOUSING GROUP CONTINUES TO LEAD -- HOMEBUILDING LEADERS INCLUDE DR HORTON, NVR, AND LENNAR -- HOUSING RELATED STOCK LEADERS INCLUDE MOHAWK, MASCO, AND HOME DEPOT -- COMPARISON OF TWO HOUSING ETFS -- MARKET AWAITS FED DECISION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO GAIN ... This is the latest of several positive messages written herein on homebuilders and housing stocks in general. Homebuilders were one of the strongest stock groups on Friday. More importantly, they're also the strongest group over the last month and the last three month periods....   READ MORE 

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Evidence Points to Further Testing of the Lows

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* S&P engulfing pattern hints at downside pressure to come * Guggenheim asset ratio continues to signal money outflow * EEM give indications of a better short-term performance to come * BOJ so far fails the inflation test US Equities short-term The recent wild swings in the market may look random in...   READ MORE