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FOUR KEY SECTORS IN HOLDING PATTERNS, TIMING ITB AND XHB, REGIONAL BANKS AND BROKER STAY STRONG, WATER BREAKS, OIL FORMS BULL FLAG, XES SURGES WITHIN WEDGE, MACD DIVERGENCES AND CHANDELIERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
50% OF S&P 500 REMAINS IN HOLDING PATTERN... The following charts and brief commentary come from Click here for Tuesday's webinar. The broader market continues to grind higher and we can point the finger at four sectors. Technology and healthcare are doing their part for the...
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TECHNICAL SUMMATION FOR IWM, SIX STOCKS KEY TO QQQ, RANKING THE 18 SECTORS, BIOTECHS LEAD HEALTHCARE, GILEAD AND REGENERON LEAD IBB, MERCK HOLDS THE GAP, METALS-MINING-STEEL WEAKEN FURTHER, CATERPILLAR AND US STEEL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TECHNICAL EVIDENCE REMAINS BULLISH FOR IWM ... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) has been lagging the broader market since mid April, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish. Chart 1 shows IWM with four bullish factors and two bearish factors at work. Working from...
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DOW JONES COMPOSITE AVERAGE CLOSES BELOW ITS 200-DAY LINE AS THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ENDS BELOW 50-DAY LINE -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES OF THEIR OWN -- INDUSTRIALS SPDR APPEARS TO BE FORMING HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW JONES COMPOSITE AVERAGE CLOSES BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE ... I've been writing about the growing negative divergence between the transportation and industrial stocks which has gotten even worse. The Dow Transports fell -2.1% during the week and ended at the lowest level in seven months. It was just...
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SPY GRINDS HIGHER, QQQ LEADS, IWM LAGS, HEALTHCARE-FINANCE-TECH LEAD, CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STALLS, INDUSTRIALS TAKE A HIT, XRT FAILS AT RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 CONTINUES TO GRIND HIGHER... Link for today's video. Price action has been rather boring in the major index ETFs since March, but there is a clear upward bias in price action and the trends remain up. Chart 1 shows the Equal-Weight S&P...
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TRANSPORTS STILL DIVERGE FROM INDUSTRIALS -- DJ COMPOSITE AVERAGE IS TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGE AND IS GOING TO NEED HELP FROM THE TRANSPORTS AND UTILITIES TO RESUME ITS UPTREND -- DOLLAR UPTURN INCREASES NEED TO HEDGE FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INDUSTRIALS NEED SOME HELP FROM THE TRANSPORTS... I remain concerned about the negative divergence between the Dow Industrials (black bars) and the Dow Transports (red bars). The discrepancy between the two Dow Averages is the biggest in three years. That may not pull the Industrials lower, but it may prevent...
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Is It Too Late To Sell In May?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* World Stock ETF falls to important support.
* Key bond confidence indicator at a key level.
* Dollar offering stronger signals that the correction is over.
Global Stocks
A couple of weeks ago I drew your attention to the $61 area on the MSCI World Stock ETF, the ACWI, as I felt...
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MEDIUM TERM TRENDS FOR SPY AND MDY, HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS REMAIN STRONG, WEAK YEN AND EURO PROPEL DOLLAR, OIL AND ENERGY GET HIT, GOLD TESTS WEDGE TREND LINE, VIDEO EXTRAS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MAJOR INDEX ETFS PULLBACK WITHIN UPTRENDS... Link for today's video. Stocks came under selling pressure on Tuesday with small-caps, mid-caps and large-techs leading the way. At this point, today's decline is just a little noise within a bigger uptrend. The stock market has been working its...
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MID-CAP BREADTH LEADS, EQUAL-WEIGHT CONFIRMS CAP-WEIGHT, IWM SIGNAL FOLLOW UP, GE LEADS INDUSTRIALS, HEALTHCARE AND TECH LEAD SCTRS, FOUR TECH STOCKS WITH A 3-STEP SETUP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INTERNAL STRENGTH CONFIRMS EXTERNAL STRENGTH... Link for today's video. The weight of the evidence is still bullish for stocks in general. As detailed below, several key index ETFs hit new highs and we are seeing leadership in three big sectors that account for almost half of the S&...
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Is it Time for the Dollar Bull Market to Resume?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Dollar Index ETF experiences a 38% Fibonacci correction and bounces.
* Key dollar relationships either at or just above major support.
* One way or another individual major currencies look vulnerable.
The Dollar Index ($USD) has been correcting for the last 9 weeks causing some observers to question the legitimacy of the...
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AIRLINES LEAD DOW TRANSPORTS TO SEVEN MONTH LOW -- SEVERAL AIRLINE STOCKS BREAK 200-DAY AVERAGES IN HEAVY TRADING -- RAILS AND TRUCKERS ARE ALSO IN DOWNTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW TRANSPORTS FALL TO SEVEN-MONTH LOW... The chart picture for the Dow Tranports continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average falling nearly 2% today and dropping to the lowest level since last October. It also fell further below its 200-day moving average. Although the rails and...
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WEBINAR, MDY AND SPY BREADTH, MARKETS ZIGZAG, OVERVIEW OF 9 SECTOR SPDRS, FIVE LEADING INDUSTRY GROUP ETFS, DOLLAR CORRELATION WITH COPPER-GOLD-OIL, BONDS HIT KEY LEVEL, SIX STOCK SETUPS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
AD LINES CONFIRM NEW HIGHS IN SPY AND MDY... When the major stock indices hit new highs, the first thing I do is check corresponding breadth indicators for confirmation. Breadth indicators tell us what is happening within the underlying indices. So far, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), the...
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EW S&P 500 STALLS NEAR HIGHS, SEMI SPDR BREAKS OUT, THREE SEMICONDUCTOR STOCK BREAKOUTS, AIRLINE INDEX CORRECTION, THREE AIRLINE STOCKS, THE REAL COMMODITY LEADERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EQUAL-WEIGHT S&P 500 CONSOLIDATES NEAR HIGHS... Link for today's video. The EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) has yet to confirm the new high in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), but RSP is close to a new high and the current uptrend favors...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS HIT THREE-MONTH HIGH -- WEAKER TRANSPORTS AND UTILITIES SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT -- BOND YIELDS TURN DOWN AS BOND PRICES BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT -- THAT HELPS HOMEBUILDERS, REITS, AND TELECOM ETFS STAY ABOVE 200-DAY LINES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORTS AND UTILITIES ARE HOLDING MARKET BACK ... I've been writing about the continuing discrepancy between three Dow Averages. But things may be starting to improve. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials closing at a three-month high and just shy of its early March peak. [The S&P...
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OEX LEADS, IWM TRIGGERS BULLISH SIGNAL, INDUSTRIALS PERK UP, CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY LAGS, 5 BOLLINGER BAND BREAKOUTS, OIL WEAKENS DESPITE EURO STRENGTH, XLE WEAKENS BELOW KEY MOVING AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OEX LEADS WITH FIRST NEW HIGH... Link for today's video. The S&P 100 ($OEX) represents large-caps and this index is the first to hit a new high here in May. The S&P 500 reached a closing high on Thursday, but fell short of a...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS REACH THREE MONTH HIGH -- TWO OF ITS BIGGEST GAINERS ARE MICROSOFT AND VISA -- S&P 500 EXCEEDS LAST FRIDAY'S HIGH -- MIDCAPS EXCEED 50-DAY LINE -- SMALL CAPS MAY BE NEXT -- FACEBOOK AND ADOBE LEAD QQQ HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW INDUSTRIALS NEAR 2015 HIGH ... Stocks are having a strong day. More importantly, several stock indexes are breaking through overhead resistance barriers, or are very close to doing so. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading at the highest level in nearly three months. That puts it in...
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Why Is $61 Such An Important Number?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Key levels for the MSCI World Stock ETF.
* Asia Ex Japan and Japan ETF’s can support higher prices.
* Latin America and the Middle East look the most vulnerable.
Occasionally a specific price can show up as a pivotal number that provides a valuable clue as to the probable direction...
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10-YEAR BOND YIELD HOLDS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE -- BANKS BENEFIT FROM HIGHER YIELDS -- BANK ETF HITS NEW SEVEN YEAR HIGH -- PERCENTAGE LEADERS ARE KEYCORP, COMERICA, AND FIFTH THIRD BANCORP -- FALLING DOLLAR IS BOOSTING PRECIOUS METALS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE HOLDS FIRM ... The recent jump in bond yields has shown no sign of ending. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield trading back above its 200-day average (after dipping back below it last Friday). The TNX is also testing its March peak...
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RISING YIELDS, THE YIELD CURVE, BANKING STOCKS, KEY LEVELS FOR BREADTH, HOUSING-RETAIL-SEMI ETFS CORRECT, BIOTECH ETFS HOLD GAPS, OIL EXTENDS UPTREND, GOLD FLOUNDERS, AIRLINES CORRECT, STOCKS OF INTEREST
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THE KEY LINES IN THE SAND... There are certainly some concerns in the stock market right now, but I have yet to get a bearish signal to confirm these concerns. The bond market imploded over the last few weeks, long-term Treasury yields surged, small-caps have been lagging since early April...
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Will the Giant Trading Range for the Emerging Markets ETF be Resolved on the Upside or Downside?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* China, Taiwan and South Korea digesting gains following upside breakouts.
* India, Russia, and Brazil face technical challenges.
* The counter-cyclical commodity rally may well be over.
Emerging Markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the EEM, has been in a large trading range during the last few years, as you can see...
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LARGE AND GROWTH LEAD, DIA CHALLENGES HIGHS, IWM BOUNCES, SMALL-CAP BREADTH LAGS, TAIL VERSUS DOG, DEFENSE-AEROSPACE ETFS HIT SUPPORT, FOUR DEFENSE STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LARGE-CAPS AND GROWTH SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH... Link for today's video. Stocks surged on Friday, but small-caps and mid-caps lagged with smaller gains. In fact, looking at one-month performance for several major index ETFs, we can see that large-caps are leading and small-caps are lagging. Chart 1 shows a...
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LATE WEEK STOCK RALLY IS BASED ON MORE THAN A JOBS REPORT -- SPIKE IN BOND YIELDS PEAKED ON THURSDAY WHICH BOOSTED DIVIDEND ISHARES -- THE DJ COMPOSITE AVERAGE BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- BRITISH MARKETS BOUNCE ON ELECTION RESULTS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BACK BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... The report of 223,000 jobs created in April (and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.4%) helped spark a strong stock rally on Friday. It's not that the report was so strong. In fact, it barely met expectations....
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SLOW AND STEADY IS STILL WINNING, SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS ARE NOT BROKEN, XLY SURGES OFF SUPPORT, XLF RENEWS BREAKOUT, IAI CONSOLIDATES, CLOUD-INTERNET-SOFTWARE ETFS SPORT STRONG SCTRS, XLI BREAKS TRIANGLE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SLOW AND STEADY IS STILL WINNING... Link for today's video. Stocks fell back from late April to early May and and this might have been enough to turn short-term bearish, but these declines did not affect the medium-term uptrends. In fact, the S&P 500 was never...
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SELLOFF IN ENERGY SHARES MAY SUGGEST OIL PEAK -- THAT'S HELPING AIRLINES AND TRANPORTS -- 10-YEAR BOND YIELD BACKS OFF FROM MARCH HIGH -- THAT'S HELPING RATE-SENSITIVE REITS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY STOCKS BACK OFF FROM 200-DAY AVERAGE... While stocks in general are rebounding from yesterday's selloff, some interesting rotations are going on beneath the surface. One of the has to do with a pullback in energy shares and the price of crude. Energy stocks are the day'...
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STOCK MARKET CONTINUES TO RETREAT -- A LOT OF SHORT-TERM SUPPORTS ARE BEING BROKEN -- FALLING APPLE HURTS NASDAQ -- BOND ETFS FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGES -- SO DO UTILITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MAJOR STOCK AVERAGES BREAK 50-DAY LINES... Stock selling that started yesterday has spilled over to today as the market's short-term trend continues to weaken. Trading volume over the last week has also taken on a negative pattern, with heavier trading on down days and lighter volume on bounces....
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Will Last Month's NYSE Breakout Hold?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* McClellan Summation gives a sell for the Wilshire 5000.
* Bond confidence ratios turn positive.
* Inflation ratios break to the upside. Trick or treat?
* Bonds complete a head and shoulders top.
US Equities
The NYSE Composite ($NYA) has been doing its best to break to the upside but continues to vacillate...
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STOCKS AND TREASURIES DIVERGE, KEY GROUPS AND BREADTH WEAKENING, FINANCE HOLDS STRONG, MATERIALS START TO LEAD, ENERGY ETFS EXTEND UPTRENDS, COPPER AND ALUMINUM LEAD BASE METALS, USING THE CHANDELIER EXIT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR ... Stocks came under selling pressure on Tuesday with techs and small-caps leading the way lower. The overall picture for stocks remains largely unchanged. The major index ETFs are in slow and steady uptrends this year, but we are seeing some weakness in a few key groups and some breadth...
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PUTTING THE BIOTECH DECLINE INTO PERSPECTIVE, GILEAD SURGES ON BIG VOLUME, MANAGING THE UPSWINGS IN OIL AND ENERGY, SEASONAL TENDENCIES FOR OIL, DOLLAR HITS SUPPORT ZONE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
PUTTING THE BIOTECH DECLINE INTO PERSPECTIVE... Link for today's video. It has been a rough ride for biotechs since mid March, but I am not ready to throw in the towel on the long-term uptrend. Chart 1 shows the Biotech iShares (IBB) with two sharp declines over the...
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THIS WEEK'S JUMP IN COPPER AND BOND YIELDS MAY BE LINKED -- SO IS THE BIG JUMP IN THE GERMAN 10-YEAR BUND YIELD -- TREASURY YIELD CURVE APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING -- RISING BOND YIELDS HELP BANKS AND INSURERS WHICH GAINED ON THE WEEK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COPPER AND YIELDS ARE WEEK'S BIGGEST GAINERS ... Two of the most significant events of the past week were the sharp rally in copper and Treasury bond yields. The two may be linked. Chart 1 shows the price of copper (red line) and the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (green...
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SPY MAINTAINS UPTREND, BREADTH WANES, SMALL AND MID-CAP ETFS BREAK SUPPORT, QQQ IS STILL THE LEADER, A BIG WEEK FOR MATERIALS, TECH AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY HOLD STRONG, NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR FINANCE AND INDUSTRIALS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY MAINTAINS UPTREND, BUT BREADTH WANES ... Link for today's video. There are clearly some signs of underlying weakness in the stock market and this could foreshadow a correction over the coming weeks. Today's market message will start with four major index ETFs. We will look at...
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BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE AS BOND PRICES FALL -- THAT'S HURTING BOND PROXIES LIKE REITS AND UTILITIES -- RISING RATES PUSH GOLD SHARPLY LOWER -- RISING OIL PRICES ARE HURTING TRANSPORTS -- SMALL STOCKS BREAK 50-DAY AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO MOVE HIGHER... After jumping sharply yesterday, Treasury bond yields are climbing again today. [Yesterday's jump followed big gains in Eurozone bond yields]. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note yield trading at the highest level since mid-March. The jump in bond yields is obviously...
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With Recent Breakouts Lacking Strong Conviction, "Sell in May?" Could Be A Legitimate Question
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Global equities starting to get overbought.
* Dollar Index and related relationships break to new correction lows.
* Commodities tentatively break to the upside.
US Equities
From now until next Tuesday the market will be under the spell of the bullish end of the month seasonal. That condition, combined with the fact...
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JUMP IN GERMAN BUND YIELD HELPS BOOST TREASURY BOND YIELDS -- THAT'S GOOD FOR BANK AND INSURANCE STOCKS WHICH ARE TRADING HIGHER TODAY -- THE DOLLAR DROP IS PUSHING COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GERMAN BUND YIELDS ARE RISING AS MANAGERS SELL... Something unusual is happening in Europe. For the first time in awhile, money managers are selling eurozone sovereign bonds which is pushing their yields higher. The best example is Germany. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year German Treasury yield jumping to 0.28%...
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SPY GETS NOISY, IWM ESTABLISHES SUPPORT, T-BONDS AND UTILITIES BRACE FOR BIG WEEK, CHEMICAL STOCKS LIFT MATERIALS SPDR, EW S&P 500 LAGS, SMALL-CAPS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY START UNDERPERFORMING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS... The charts below represent some of those featured in today's Webinar. The big trends are clearly up for the major index ETFs, but I am seeing some signs of weakness in a few key groups. It is not a major concern right now, however, it is...
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RCD CHALLENGES RESISTANCE, HEALTHCARE IS THE STRONGEST, MRK, GILD AND JNJ LAG, ABBV AND BMY LEAD, BASE METALS ETF CHALLENGES RESISTANCE, XME EXTENDS UPSWING, STEEL ETF BREAKS OUT, GOLD SURGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EQUAL-WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY CHALLENGES RESISTANCE... Link for today's video. A funny thing happened on the way to new highs last week. The S&P 500 recorded a new high last week, but only one sector SPDR recorded a new high and only one equal-weight sector ETF hit...
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RISING STOCK MARKET IS BAD FOR GOLD -- COPPER LOOKS LIKE A BETTER ALTERNATIVE -- GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF HITS FIVE-MONTH HIGH -- FREEPORT MCMORAN FLATTENS OUT -- SOUTHERN COPPER BREAKS NECKLINE RESISTANCE -- HUDBAY MINERALS ALSO TURNS UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING STOCKS ARE BAD FOR GOLD... During last Saturday's webinar, one of the attendees asked what I thought of gold. I responded that I didn't like gold and haven't liked it for at least two years. The main reason for that view is the...
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AMAZON AND MICROSOFT POWER QQQ, BROAD INDICES-TECHS-ASIA DOMINATE NEW HIGHS, NEW HIGH-NEW LOW SCAN, RRG SHOWS BIFURCATION IN FINANCE, XLF AND RYF LAG, REGIONAL BANK AND BROKER ETFS CONSOLIDATE NEAR HIGHS, JAPANESE FINANCIALS MAKE A MOVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQ SURGES TO NEW HIGH... Link for today's video. Large-cap techs took charge on Friday and powered the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) to a new high. The underlying index, Nasdaq 100, is now around 6% from its all time high, which was recorded in March 2000. Chart 1...
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SOUTH KOREA RALLIES AS TAIWAN ETF EXPLODES TO RECORD HIGH -- EFA AND EEM HIT NEW RECOVERY HIGHS -- BOUNCING COMMODITIES AND A WEAKER DOLLAR ARE BOOSTING CANADA ISHARES -- NYSE INDEX HITS NEW RECORD -- NASDAQ TRADES ABOVE ITS MARCH 2000 CLOSING HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SOUTH KOREA RISES -- TAIWAN ETF HITS NEW HIGH... China and Japan aren't the only Asian countries that are hitting new highs. Two of today's strongest performers are South Korea and Taiwan. Chart 1 shows South Korea iShares (EWY) climbing nearly 2% to the highest level...
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CSX AND RAILS LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- DOW ENDS BACK OVER 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ 100 NEARS TEST OF HIGH AND LEADS MARKET HIGHER -- BROADCOM LEADS TECHNOLOGY AND SEMICONDUCTOR ETFS HIGHER -- S&P 500 IS AGAIN TESTING TOP OF SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW TRANSPORTS HIT NEW MONTHLY HIGH... The chart picture for the Dow Transports continues to improve. I recently showed the transports finding support at their 200-day moving average and chart support along first quarter lows. Chart 1 shows the TRAN rising today to the highest level in a month. It&...
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HIGH-LOW PERCENT SIGNALS, AD LINE CONFIRMATION, TREND MOVEMENTS, FINANCE SECTOR WEAKENS, MATERIALS SECTOR WOBBLES, TWO LEADING HEALTHCARE GROUPS, WATCH SWINGS IN OIL AND XLE, 10-YR YIELD LACKS CATALYST, UTILITIES WEAKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS... Below are some of the charts highlighted in today's Webinar. There was also a tutorial on Bollinger Bands using Apple as the example. Lots of stocks and ETFs show narrowing ranges and this is a great time to brush up on a classic indicator. I also...
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Does Friday's Sell-off Negate the NYSE Upside Breakout?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* -Some short-term momentum indicators weaken but are not yet bearish.
* -Dollar related relationships close to an upside breakout
* -Gold and silver under pressure
US Equities
They say that the most critical points of a flight are takeoff and landing. The same is true in technical analysis where the most critical...
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