A PERSISTENT AND BORING UPTREND... Link for today's video. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, remains in a boring uptrend. Better a boring uptrend than a boring downtrend. As noted in Tuesday's webinar, the 5-day Rate-of-Change has been between +3.5%... READ MORE
STOCKS BOUNCE SHARPLY OFF CHART SUPPORT... Reports of a compromise between the Germans and Greeks to prevent a default later this month appears to be contributing to a strong global stock rally. European stocks are up 2% on average. U.S. stocks are having a strong day of their own.... READ MORE
WEBINAR RECORDING AND TIMELINE... The charts and commentary below come from the webinar recording. Note that not all webinar charts are included. Overall, the market remains boring on the outside and mixed up on the inside. The S&P 500 is flat for the year, but some key sectors... READ MORE
* -World Bond Index completes a major top. * -US short-term bonds on the verge of a breakout. * -Stocks now being threatened by rising rates. World Bond Index Global bond markets have really been taking it on the chin recently without that usual push they get from rising commodity prices. Monetary policy... READ MORE
USO AND THE LONG-TERM TRACKING ERROR ... Oil surged at the end of May, but fell back last week and remains in a short-term downtrend. For a different perspective, I am going to analyze the August futures contracts for Light Crude and Brent Crude. The USO Oil Fund (USO) and US... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 SLIP WHILE NASDAQ HOLDS FIRM... U.S. stocks lost ground during the week, but not enough to do any serious chart damage. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling to the lowest level in a month and sliding below its 50-day moving average (in... READ MORE
MACD HOLDS BULLISH FOR IWM... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) exceeding the late May high this week and keeping the uptrend alive. Even though IWM has yet to exceed its April highs, the chart is more bullish than bearish right now.... READ MORE
* -Brokers experience a bearish two bar reversal. * -Dollar diffusion indicator ticks up for the first time in many weeks. * -Gold in dollars experiencing a short-term breakdown. * -Gold in yen and euro at crucial support levels. US Equities The market has been working its way irregularly higher over the last few... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS SHOW NEW WEAKNESS... The global stock market rally is running into trouble. That can be seen more clearly in foreign markets. Chart 1 shows MSCI EAFE iShares (EFA) falling below its 50-day average after backing off from overhead resistance formed last June. Its daily MACD lines (top of... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS REACH NEW 2015 HIGH... The surge in bond yields that started a month ago is accelerating to the upside. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield climbing to the highest level since last November. Chart 2 shows the 30-Year T-Bond Yield doing the same. The driving force... READ MORE
50% OF S&P 500 REMAINS IN HOLDING PATTERN... The following charts and brief commentary come from Click here for Tuesday's webinar. The broader market continues to grind higher and we can point the finger at four sectors. Technology and healthcare are doing their part for the... READ MORE
TECHNICAL EVIDENCE REMAINS BULLISH FOR IWM ... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) has been lagging the broader market since mid April, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish. Chart 1 shows IWM with four bullish factors and two bearish factors at work. Working from... READ MORE
DOW JONES COMPOSITE AVERAGE CLOSES BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE ... I've been writing about the growing negative divergence between the transportation and industrial stocks which has gotten even worse. The Dow Transports fell -2.1% during the week and ended at the lowest level in seven months. It was just... READ MORE
S&P 500 CONTINUES TO GRIND HIGHER... Link for today's video. Price action has been rather boring in the major index ETFs since March, but there is a clear upward bias in price action and the trends remain up. Chart 1 shows the Equal-Weight S&P... READ MORE
INDUSTRIALS NEED SOME HELP FROM THE TRANSPORTS... I remain concerned about the negative divergence between the Dow Industrials (black bars) and the Dow Transports (red bars). The discrepancy between the two Dow Averages is the biggest in three years. That may not pull the Industrials lower, but it may prevent... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF falls to important support. * Key bond confidence indicator at a key level. * Dollar offering stronger signals that the correction is over. Global Stocks A couple of weeks ago I drew your attention to the $61 area on the MSCI World Stock ETF, the ACWI, as I felt... READ MORE
MAJOR INDEX ETFS PULLBACK WITHIN UPTRENDS... Link for today's video. Stocks came under selling pressure on Tuesday with small-caps, mid-caps and large-techs leading the way. At this point, today's decline is just a little noise within a bigger uptrend. The stock market has been working its... READ MORE
INTERNAL STRENGTH CONFIRMS EXTERNAL STRENGTH... Link for today's video. The weight of the evidence is still bullish for stocks in general. As detailed below, several key index ETFs hit new highs and we are seeing leadership in three big sectors that account for almost half of the S&... READ MORE
* Dollar Index ETF experiences a 38% Fibonacci correction and bounces. * Key dollar relationships either at or just above major support. * One way or another individual major currencies look vulnerable. The Dollar Index ($USD) has been correcting for the last 9 weeks causing some observers to question the legitimacy of the... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS FALL TO SEVEN-MONTH LOW... The chart picture for the Dow Tranports continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average falling nearly 2% today and dropping to the lowest level since last October. It also fell further below its 200-day moving average. Although the rails and... READ MORE
AD LINES CONFIRM NEW HIGHS IN SPY AND MDY... When the major stock indices hit new highs, the first thing I do is check corresponding breadth indicators for confirmation. Breadth indicators tell us what is happening within the underlying indices. So far, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), the... READ MORE
EQUAL-WEIGHT S&P 500 CONSOLIDATES NEAR HIGHS... Link for today's video. The EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) has yet to confirm the new high in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), but RSP is close to a new high and the current uptrend favors... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS AND UTILITIES ARE HOLDING MARKET BACK ... I've been writing about the continuing discrepancy between three Dow Averages. But things may be starting to improve. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials closing at a three-month high and just shy of its early March peak. [The S&P... READ MORE
OEX LEADS WITH FIRST NEW HIGH... Link for today's video. The S&P 100 ($OEX) represents large-caps and this index is the first to hit a new high here in May. The S&P 500 reached a closing high on Thursday, but fell short of a... READ MORE
DOW INDUSTRIALS NEAR 2015 HIGH ... Stocks are having a strong day. More importantly, several stock indexes are breaking through overhead resistance barriers, or are very close to doing so. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading at the highest level in nearly three months. That puts it in... READ MORE
* Key levels for the MSCI World Stock ETF. * Asia Ex Japan and Japan ETF’s can support higher prices. * Latin America and the Middle East look the most vulnerable. Occasionally a specific price can show up as a pivotal number that provides a valuable clue as to the probable direction... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE HOLDS FIRM ... The recent jump in bond yields has shown no sign of ending. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield trading back above its 200-day average (after dipping back below it last Friday). The TNX is also testing its March peak... READ MORE
THE KEY LINES IN THE SAND... There are certainly some concerns in the stock market right now, but I have yet to get a bearish signal to confirm these concerns. The bond market imploded over the last few weeks, long-term Treasury yields surged, small-caps have been lagging since early April... READ MORE
* China, Taiwan and South Korea digesting gains following upside breakouts. * India, Russia, and Brazil face technical challenges. * The counter-cyclical commodity rally may well be over. Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the EEM, has been in a large trading range during the last few years, as you can see... READ MORE
LARGE-CAPS AND GROWTH SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH... Link for today's video. Stocks surged on Friday, but small-caps and mid-caps lagged with smaller gains. In fact, looking at one-month performance for several major index ETFs, we can see that large-caps are leading and small-caps are lagging. Chart 1 shows a... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BACK BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... The report of 223,000 jobs created in April (and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.4%) helped spark a strong stock rally on Friday. It's not that the report was so strong. In fact, it barely met expectations.... READ MORE
SLOW AND STEADY IS STILL WINNING... Link for today's video. Stocks fell back from late April to early May and and this might have been enough to turn short-term bearish, but these declines did not affect the medium-term uptrends. In fact, the S&P 500 was never... READ MORE
ENERGY STOCKS BACK OFF FROM 200-DAY AVERAGE... While stocks in general are rebounding from yesterday's selloff, some interesting rotations are going on beneath the surface. One of the has to do with a pullback in energy shares and the price of crude. Energy stocks are the day'... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK AVERAGES BREAK 50-DAY LINES... Stock selling that started yesterday has spilled over to today as the market's short-term trend continues to weaken. Trading volume over the last week has also taken on a negative pattern, with heavier trading on down days and lighter volume on bounces.... READ MORE
* McClellan Summation gives a sell for the Wilshire 5000. * Bond confidence ratios turn positive. * Inflation ratios break to the upside. Trick or treat? * Bonds complete a head and shoulders top. US Equities The NYSE Composite ($NYA) has been doing its best to break to the upside but continues to vacillate... READ MORE
WEBINAR ... Stocks came under selling pressure on Tuesday with techs and small-caps leading the way lower. The overall picture for stocks remains largely unchanged. The major index ETFs are in slow and steady uptrends this year, but we are seeing some weakness in a few key groups and some breadth... READ MORE
PUTTING THE BIOTECH DECLINE INTO PERSPECTIVE... Link for today's video. It has been a rough ride for biotechs since mid March, but I am not ready to throw in the towel on the long-term uptrend. Chart 1 shows the Biotech iShares (IBB) with two sharp declines over the... READ MORE
COPPER AND YIELDS ARE WEEK'S BIGGEST GAINERS ... Two of the most significant events of the past week were the sharp rally in copper and Treasury bond yields. The two may be linked. Chart 1 shows the price of copper (red line) and the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (green... READ MORE
SPY MAINTAINS UPTREND, BUT BREADTH WANES ... Link for today's video. There are clearly some signs of underlying weakness in the stock market and this could foreshadow a correction over the coming weeks. Today's market message will start with four major index ETFs. We will look at... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO MOVE HIGHER... After jumping sharply yesterday, Treasury bond yields are climbing again today. [Yesterday's jump followed big gains in Eurozone bond yields]. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note yield trading at the highest level since mid-March. The jump in bond yields is obviously... READ MORE