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-- MIND THE GAP AND THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE, TRANSPORTS BOUNCE AT FIB RETRACEMENT, TRUCKING AND AIRLINES LEAD, 3 TRUCKING LEADERS, 2 AIRLINE LEADERS, 3 LEGACY AIRLINE STOCKS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MIND THE SMALL CAP GAP AND RELATIVE PERFORMANCE... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) both gapped up last week and these gaps are holding. Moreover, small-caps have been showing relative strength since mid October and their respective...
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-- LONG-TERM UPTREND AND SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND, FINANCE AD LINE, XLF BEAR TRAP, OIL BREAK DOWN, XLE NEAR NEW LOW, CORRELATIONS TO THE DOLLAR (OIL, STOCKS, BONDS, GOLD), KEY NEW HIGHS AND LOWS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LONG-TERM UPTREND AND SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND... Link for today's video. Stocks did the old pop and drop on Thursday and Friday. With Thursday's gain dissipating, this means the short-term trend is still down and stocks remain in corrective mode. Financials and healthcare showed some strength this week,...
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SMALL CAPS LEAD LARGE CAPS HIGHER -- FINANCIALS HAVE A STRONG DAY -- BANK AND BROKER ETFS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- PNC FINANCIAL HITS ALL-TIME HIGH -- WELLS FARGO MAY BE NEXT -- CHARLES SCHWAB NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAPS LEAD U.S. RALLY ... Yesterday's message suggested that small caps do better than large caps in a strong dollar environment. That may explain why small caps are trying hard to pull the U.S. stock market out of its recent pullback. Chart 1 shows the S&...
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DOLLAR INDEX REACHES 12-YEAR HIGH AS EURO TUMBLES -- USD BREAKS 30-YEAR RESISTANCE LINE -- WIDENING SPREAD BETWEEN 10-YEAR TREASURY AND GERMAN YIELD IS SUPPORTING DOLLAR RALLY -- FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE ALL FALLING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR INDEX REACHES 12-YEAR HIGH AS EURO PLUNGES... A lot of attention is being focused on the continuing surge in the U.S. Dollar, and the plunge in the Euro. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the U.S. Dollar Index (green bars) rising to the highest level since...
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Stock Markets around the World Continue to Look Vulnerable
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* World stock ETF may have experienced a false upside breakout.
* Bonds likely to out-perform stocks in the immediate future.
* Emerging markets ETF right at critical support.
Global Equities
Global equities are starting to look sick. Chart 1, for instance shows that the MSCI World Stock ETF, the ACWI, has recently...
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-- WEBINAR WITH JDK OF RRG, S&P 500 EXTENDS DECLINE, IMPORTANCE OF FINANCE SECTOR, BREAKDOWN IN XLF, TARGET FOR XLY, TWO STRONG GROUPS AND FOUR STOCKS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR WITH RRG ... Today's Webinar features a top-down approach to selecting stocks using Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) and some classic chart analysis. Julius de Kempenaer, developer of RRG, kicks off the webinar by analyzing relative performance for the sector SPDRs, the industry groups in the consumer discretionary sector...
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-- MARKETCARPET TIPS AND TRICKS, 3 LEADING SECTORS, LEADING STOCKS IN LEADING SECTORS, ONE SEMICONDUCTOR ETF LAGS THE OTHER, INTEL MAKES A BREAK, TSM WEIGHS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DRILLING DOWN INTO THE MARKETCARPET... Link for today's video. After hitting new highs in February, stocks weakened in March with selling pressure over the past week. The long-term trend for the S&P 500 remains up, but some sort of correction or pullback may be underway. Corrections...
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STRONG JOBS REPORT PUSHES INTEREST RATES SHARPLY HIGHER AND TREASURY BONDS LOWER -- HIGHER RATES BOOST BANKS AND BROKERS -- BUT HURT UTILITIES AND GOLD -- S&P 500 ENDS DAY LOWER...
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SOUND FAMILIAR? ... The above headline is actually taken from my February 7 Market Message which was written the day after that Friday's strong jobs report. Yesterday's surprisingly strong jobs report, and market reactions, were almost exactly the same as they were a month ago. It just...
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-- A WEAK MARCH FOR STOCKS, XLF STALLS, REGIONAL BANK SPDR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE, THREE REGIONAL BANKS, 10-YR YIELD BREAKS OUT, TLT BREAKS DOWN, ECONOMIC INDICATOR TABLE --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS WEAKEN, BUT BIGGER UPTRENDS REMAIN... Link for today's video. Stocks weakened over the last few days, but this weakness does not affect the bigger uptrend. First, note that the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P Small-Cap 600 and Nasdaq 100 all...
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Can the Stock Market Hold its Breakout?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* NYSE Composite and MSCI World Stock ETF could be in the process of cancelling their recent breakouts.
* Stock/bond ratio at a critical juncture.
* Junk bonds violate up trend line.
* Dollar Index breaks to the upside.
* Gold and gold shares face important technical test.
Equities
Chart 1 suggests that the...
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STOCK INDEXES ENCOUNTER SELLING -- DOW TRANSPORTS HAVEN'T CONFIRMED INDUSTRIAL HIGH -- FALLING BONDS HAVE HURT UTILITIES -- STOCK/BOND RATIO, HOWEVER, LOOKS OVERBOUGHT -- FTSE WORLD INDEX BACKS OFF FROM RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORTS HAVEN'T CONFIRMED DOW HIGH ... U.S. stocks are experiencing some selling today. A pullback from recent highs isn't too surprising considering the fact that some short-term negative divergences have surfaced. First with short-term momentum indicators. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials in the red today....
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-- FIRST SUPPORT FOR QQQ, MICROSOFT HITS RESISTANCE, BANDS CONTRACT FOR ORACLE, GOOGLE LEADS, SMALL-CAP BREADTH LAGS, UTILITIES BREADTH TURNS BEARISH, SECTOR SCTR RANKINGS AND CORRELATIONS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS AND LINKS... Today's Webinar will start with a live demo showing how to find signals on PerfCharts. I will start with the major stock indices, drill down into the sectors and then look at twenty industry group ETFs in two separate PerfCharts. Even though there are...
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-- SEMIS POWER TECH SECTOR, THREE SEMI STOCKS WITH FRESH BREAKOUTS, THROWBACK ZONE FOR QQQ, SMALL-CAPS STRUGGLE, XLU BREAKS DOWN AS YIELDS RISE, TLT GETS COLD FEET --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SEMICONDUCTOR ETF LEADS WITH NEW HIGH ... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) surging over 1.5% and hitting yet another new high. The ETF surged in the second half of October and then embarked on a steady advance defined by the Raff Regression...
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-- SMALL-CAPS LEAD, NEW HIGH PARADE, FINANCE LAGS, BAC AND MS, XLE HITS RESISTANCE, XOM, CVX AND SLB, PALLADIUM PERKS UP, GOLD HITS FIB LEVEL, GDX HOLDS BREAK --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LARGE-CAPS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD FEBRUARY CHARGE... Link for today's video. Even though the stock market is not firing on all cylinders, the majority of cylinders are firing bullish and this is enough to support an uptrend in the broad indices. February may be a short month, but it...
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FALLING CONSUMER PRICES MAKE FED'S JOB MORE DIFFICULT -- SO DO FALLING COMMODITY PRICES -- A RISING DOLLAR IS PUSHING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER -- WEAK GERMAN YIELD WEIGHS ON TREASURY YIELD -- DOLLAR INDEX IS ON VERGE OF RESUMING ITS UPTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED NOW FOCUSED ON LOW INFLATION ... Today's announcement that consumer prices in the U.S. fell -0.7 in January, the biggest drop since late 2008 (and the first annual decline since 2009), is going to make the Fed's job harder. [The core CPI, excluding food...
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Equity Market Breakout is Broadly Based but Short-term Indicators are Becoming Overstretched
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Emerging markets about to experience an important breakout.
* Yield curve continues to flatten.
* Confidence in the bond market faces an important technical test.
US Equities
We have seen some nice breakouts in the last few trading sessions, which have been pretty broadly based as you can see from Chart 1,...
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-- QQQ BREAKOUT, SPY TARGETS, BREADTH LINES CONFIRM, SECTOR AD LINES, T-YIELDS HIT INFLECTION, TLT SURGES OFF FIB ZONE, YIELD CURVE, UTILITIES FIRM AND REITS BREAK --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS... Welcome to the Fed edition of the Market Message. No, I am not going to dissect Fed speak and analyze every word from the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Instead, I am going to analyze the charts, which contain all available information. Before hitting Treasuries, I will...
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-- A BREAK FOR THE TRANSPORT ETF, AIRLINES, TRUCKERS, RAILROADS, DELIVERY SERVICES, 3 AIRLINE STOCKS, 2 TRUCKING STOCKS, OIL WEIGHS, OIL SERVICES HITS RESISTANCE --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORT ISHARES BREAKS CHANNEL LINE... Some transportation-related industry groups and stocks are at interesting junctures right now. First, the broader market is in an uptrend as the S&P 500 hit an all time high last week. Second, oil prices remain weak and this is beneficial to several transport-related...
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DOW JOINS S&P 500 IN RECORD HIGH -- NASDAQ NEARS TEST OF ITS 2000 HIGH -- GERMAN DAX HITS NEW RECORD -- BRITAIN MAY BE NEXT -- JAPAN REACHES 15-YEAR HIGH -- DOLLAR INDEX TESTS 20-YEAR RESISTANCE LINE -- EAFE ISHARES BREAK OUT TO UPSIDE ON GOOD VOLUME
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW JOINS REST OF THE MARKET IN NEW HIGHS. ... The chart picture for U.S. and global stocks brightened even further on Friday. [News that eurozone finance ministers offered Greece a four-month extension of its bailout package gave a late boost to global stocks]. All major U.S. stock hit...
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-- $SPX AND $NDX P&F CHARTS, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF'S LEAD, 5 DEFENSE STOCKS, INTERNET ETF BREAKS OUT, 3 ISTOCKS CHALLENGING RESISTANCE, OIL STALLS, XLE GETS COLD FEET --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
REST AFTER BIG SURGE... Link for today's video. After big gains the first two weeks of February, stocks took a breather this week and consolidated. A rest after a sharp advance is perfectly normal at this stage. Among the groups, the Energy SPDR (XLE) fell back along with...
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JAPAN AND EUROPE LEAD EAFE ISHARES HIGHER -- GERMANY, FRANCE, AND THE UK LEAD EUROPE -- HOW TO HEDGE GERMAN ISHARES AGAINST WEAK EURO -- JAPANESE STOCKS NEAR 15-YEAR HIGH -- HEDGING AGAINST THE FALLING YEN HAS BEEN A GOOD IDEA
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EAFE ISHARES TURN UP ... Foreign stocks continue to show signs of strength. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares (EFA) trading above its 200-day moving average after recently exceeding its late November peak. At the start of February, it also broke a declining resistance line drawn over June/September/November highs. That...
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US Equity Upside Breakout So Far So Good
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* -NASDAQ Composite offers quality upside leadership.
* -Watch the 5-year yield for a clue as to future rate movements.
* -Gold starting to show bull market characteristics but can it confirm with some positive trend action?
In last week’s article I drew your attention to the fact that the technical picture...
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-- THE KEY TO THE BREAKOUTS, MATERIAL SECTOR LEADERSHIP, SHORT-TERM BREADTH INDICATORS, UTILITIES ETFS HIT SUPPORT, TLT HITS FIBONACCI CLUSTER, OIL, GOLD, URANIUM AND LOTS OF STOCKS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS AND LINK... Stocks are short-term overbought after big runs in February, but the breakouts are holding and these are bullish until proven otherwise. Today's Webinar will look at five stock indices, sector High-Low Percent, a short-term breadth indicator, the utilities sector, the long-term Treasury bond ETF,...
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-- SURGE AND FOLLOW THROUGH, GROWTH VERSUS VALUE, BREAKING DOWN XLY AND XLF, WATER ETF GETS INTERESTING, FIVE STOCKS IN STRONG GROUPS, NEW HIGH PARADE --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SURGE AND FOLLOW THROUGH BODES WELL... The major stock indices surged off support levels last week and followed through with breakouts this week. Chart 1 shows five major index ETFs on one chart for easy reference. The top chart shows the S&P 1500 hitting new highs in November-December,...
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GLOBAL STOCK RALLY IS STARTING TO BROADEN OUT -- GERMANY AND FRANCE LEAD EUROPE HIGHER -- GREEK STOCKS ARE BOUNCING FROM SUPPORT -- THE HEDJ IS THE BEST WAY TO HEDGE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF FALLING EURO -- SMALLER STOCKS LEAD S&P 500 HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW JONES GLOBAL INDEX HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH ... One of the major concerns in the new year has been fear that foreign markets would start to weigh on U.S. stocks. Although U.S. stocks have been the strongest in the world, they need some help from foreign markets. They'...
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Forthcoming Big Move in Equities is Likely. The Question is Which Way will it Be?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The NYA starts to break down against the S&P again.
* Emerging markets ETF triggers some short-term sell signals.
* The EEM is resting above key long-term support.
US Equities
The market continues to frustrate both bull and bear alike as the major averages steadfastly refuse to break out from...
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INDEX OVERVIEW, RISK ON OR OFF?, XLF-XLK-XLY, HIGH-LOW INDICATORS, SECTOR RANKINGS, FOCUS ON UTILITIES, TWENTY STOCKS AND Q&A -- S&P 500 AND S&P MIDCAP 400 STALL AFTER BREAKOUTS -- IS RISK REALLY BACK ON? -- INDEX HIGH-LOW PERCENT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS AND COMMENTARY... The market remains a mixed up beast over the last few months, but the bigger trend is still up and the bulk of the evidence is still bullish. Choppy trading over the last few months just means we had a consolidation within an uptrend. Major topping...
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QQQ LAGS WITH LOWER HIGH -- PERFCHART AND RRG FOR MAJOR INDEX ETFS -- MICROSOFT, INTEL AND AMGEN WEIGH -- GOOGLE STALLS AT RESISTANCE -- FACEBOOK NEARS SUPPORT -- AMGEN CORRECTS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQ LAGS WITH LOWER HIGH... The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is still lagging the broader market with a series of lower highs since December. Chart 1 shows QQQ breaking out in late October and hitting new highs throughout November. Relative weakness started in late December when QQQ failed to take...
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STRONG JOBS REPORT PUSHES INTEREST RATES SHARPLY HIGHER AND TREASURY BONDS LOWER -- HIGHER RATES BOOST BANKS AND BROKERS -- BUT HURT UTILITIES AND GOLD -- S&P 500 ENDS DAY LOWER WHICH KEEPS IT IN TRADING RANGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STRONG JOBS REPORT PUSH RATES HIGHER... A strong jobs report on Friday pushed interest rates sharply higher all across the yield curve. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Note yield jumping to the highest close in a month. [Bond prices fell sharply as a result]. Short-term...
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STRONG JOBS REPORT PUSHES FINANCIALS HIGHER -- BANKS AND BROKERS SURGE -- S&P 500 EXCEEDS JANUARY HIGH -- JUMP IN BOND YIELDS IS CAUSING PROFIT-TAKING IN REITS, UTILITIES, AND GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET RALLY ... A strong jobs report is pushing stock prices higher today. Chart 1 shows the Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) jumping above initial resistance at its late January peak (near 24.00) and climbing back over its 50-day line. Banks and brokers are leading the XLF higher. Chart...
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Moment of Truth Approaching for US Equities
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Short-term oscillators turn bullish for equities
* EFA breaks above significant down trend line
* Gold short-term momentum reverses to the downside
US Equities
Last week the headline of my Market Roundup article read as follows, ”Will the end-of the month bullish seasonal for equities be enough to avoid a downside domino...
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DOW BREAKS THROUGH RESISTANCE -- SO DO MIDCAP AND SMALL CAPS -- S&P 500 SHOULD BE NEXT -- ENERGY SHARES ARE AT A LONG-TERM SUPPORT LEVEL AND MAY BE BOTTOMING -- THAT WOULD HINT AT A BOTTOM IN OIL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW EXCEEDS CHART RESISTANCE... A 211 point gain in the Dow Industrials was enough to push it through initial chart resistance at its mid-December. That's a strong sign that the sidways price pattern in effect since early December is being resolved on the upside. The Dow isn'...
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FALLING OIL BOOSTS CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS -- LEADERS INCLUDE DISNEY, WHIRLPOOL, AND KOHLS -- AUTOS AND HOMEBUILDES ALSO CLIMB -- GENERAL ELECTRIC AND FORD HAVE GOOD DAY -- RYLAND AND TOLL BROTHERS TURN UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH... Consumer discretionary stocks have been among the biggest beneficiaries of falling oil prices. Today is no exception. With crude falling 8% during the day, consumer discretionary stocks are among the day's biggest gainers. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Consumer...
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WEBINAR CHARTS AND LINK -- MARKET REMAINS STUCK, BUT NOT BROKEN -- RISK INDICATOR OVERVIEW -- SECTOR SPDRS AND THEIR SEVEN BREADTH INDICATORS -- 6 ETF CHARTS -- 9 STOCK CHARTS -- Q&A: CREATING SHADED BOXES, USING THE RAFF CHANNEL AND MORE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS... The major index ETFs and key sector SDPDRs remain stuck in trading ranges, but we are seeing some promising signs over the last two days. As the charts in today's Webinar show, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Technology SPDR (XLK) all surged...
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DIA BREAKS TRIANGLE TREND LINE -- EQUAL-WEIGHT S&P 500 ETF TESTS KEY LEVEL -- FIVE SECTOR ETFS WITH REVERSAL PATTERNS -- BPI HITS MOMENT-OF-TRUTH FOR GOLD MINERS ETF -- GOLD TESTS BREAKOUT WITH A THROWBACK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DIA BREAKS TRIANGLE TREND LINE... Link for today's video. Stocks came under selling pressure last week as the major index ETFs gapped down on Tuesday and stayed down. Chart 1 shows the Dow SPDR (DIA) gapping below 175 and closing below the lower trend line of a triangle....
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WEAK GDP REPORT PUSHES STOCKS LOWER IN HEAVY TRADING AND THREATENS SUPPORT -- S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART SHOWS NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES -- BONDS ARE OUTPEFORMING STOCKS IN NEW YEAR -- DROP IN TWO-YEAR YIELD SHOWS SOME LOSS OF CONFIDENCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FRIDAY SELLOFF IN HEAVY TRADING THREATENS CHART SUPPORT... Friday's disappointing fourth quarter GDP report of only 2.6% caused heavy selling of stocks and buying of bonds. The combination of falling stock prices and heavy volume gave the week's performance a negative look, and suggests tht...
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BATTLING SUPPORT AND CONSOLIDATING -- S&P MIDCAP CONSOLIDATES NEAR HIGHS -- SMALL AND MICRO CAPS PERK UP -- GROWTH OUTPERFORMS VALUE -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY HOLDING UP WELL, FINANCE NOT -- HOUSING AND RETAIL SPDRS BOUNCE ABOVE SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STILL BATTLING SUPPORT AND CONSOLIDATING... Link for today's video. The major stock indices remain range bound since early November, but these ranges still look like consolidations or corrections within bigger uptrends. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 breaking out in late October on its way to...
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NEW LOWS IN CRUDE OIL AND TREASURY YIELDS INCREASE DEFLATIONARY CONCERNS -- STOCKS SELLOFF IN AFTERNOON TRADING -- DOW HITS NEW JANUARY LOW -- NASDAQ AND S&P 500 MAY CHALLENGE THEIR JANUARY LOWS -- VIX JUMPS 18%
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
10-YEAR TREASURY TUMBLES AS OIL HITS NEW LOW... Deflationary forces continue to push commodity prices and bond yields lower. Most commodities fell again today, with most attention on oil. The black line in Chart 1 shows the United States Oil ETF (USO) falling to a new low today. So did...
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Will The End-Of-The-Month Bullish Seasonal for Equities Be Enough To Avoid A Downside Domino Effect?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* NYSE Composite is forming a head and shoulders top or is it a bottom?
* IWM experiences false upside breakout
* SPY/EFA ratio is signaling a dollar correction. Will the Index take the bait?
* Wisdom Tree Yuan fund right on a key up trend line
I last wrote about the US...
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WEBINAR CHARTS -- DOW DIAMONDS PLUNGES AND EW S&P 500 ETF STALLS -- LARGE-CAP TECHS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER -- WEEKLY CHARTS FOR PERSPECTIVE -- MID-CAP HIGH-LOW PERCENT LEADS -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT FOR XLY AND XLK LAGS -- OIL AND ENERGY ETFS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR CHARTS... The major index ETFs have gone nowhere since mid November and continue to go nowhere during earnings season. For example, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged off support in the 2000 area with a 3% move last week and gave a chunk back with a decline...
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