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MID CAPS AND LARGE TECHS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- DR HORTON AND LENNAR LEAD ITB SUPPORT BOUNCE -- BIOTECHS SHOW BROAD STRENGTH -- CARZ BREAKS LATE DECEMBER HIGH -- TOYOTA AND DAIMLER LEAD...

MID CAPS AND LARGE TECHS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- DR HORTON AND LENNAR LEAD ITB SUPPORT BOUNCE -- BIOTECHS SHOW BROAD STRENGTH -- CARZ BREAKS LATE DECEMBER HIGH -- TOYOTA AND DAIMLER LEAD -- GM HITS SUPPORT ZONE AS F CONSOLIDATES

MID CAPS AND LARGE TECHS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Link for today's video. The S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) are starting to show relative strength, but in two different ways. Chart 1 shows QQQ with a breakout in late October and new...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 CONFIRMS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL -- $NDX FORMS BIG CONTINUATION PATTERN -- LARGE AND MID CAPS LEAD NEW HIGHS -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS LEAD RANKINGS -- XLU, XLP AND XLV HIT NEW HIGHS -- OFFEN...

S&P 500 CONFIRMS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL -- $NDX FORMS BIG CONTINUATION PATTERN -- LARGE AND MID CAPS LEAD NEW HIGHS -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS LEAD RANKINGS -- XLU, XLP AND XLV HIT NEW HIGHS -- OFFENSIVE SECTORS SURGE OFF SUPPORT -- UPS SHOWS CHALLENGE OF EARNINGS

S&P 500 SURGES TO CONFIRM KEY SUPPORT LEVEL... Link for today's video. Stocks bounced this week with broad strength that reinforced support areas for several key indices. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 breaking above the 2000 area in November and successfully testing this...   READ MORE 

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EUROPEAN STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL RALLY ON ECB ACTION -- GERMANY AND FRANCE LEAD EUROPE RALLY -- BUT EURO FALLS TO ELEVEN-YEAR LOW -- WEAK OIL BOOSTS RETAILERS AND TRANSPORTS AS U.S. STOCKS RALL...

EUROPEAN STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL RALLY ON ECB ACTION -- GERMANY AND FRANCE LEAD EUROPE RALLY -- BUT EURO FALLS TO ELEVEN-YEAR LOW -- WEAK OIL BOOSTS RETAILERS AND TRANSPORTS AS U.S. STOCKS RALLY -- S&P 500 CLEARS 50-DAY LINE -- VIX PLUNGES

ECB COMES THROUGH ... The ECB gave the world's financial markets what they wanted, and a little bit more. Mario Draghi expanded the ECB asset-buying program to include sovereign bonds to the tune of 60 billion euros per month at least until the end of September 2016. That comes...   READ MORE 

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ECB BOND BUYING MIGHT HELP EURO STOCKS, BUT NOT THE CURRENCY -- THE WISDOM TREE EUROPE HEDGED EQUITY FUND HEDGES OUT WEAK EURO -- CURRENCY VOLATILITY PUSHES MONEY INTO GOLD -- HOMEBUILDERS...

ECB BOND BUYING MIGHT HELP EURO STOCKS, BUT NOT THE CURRENCY -- THE WISDOM TREE EUROPE HEDGED EQUITY FUND HEDGES OUT WEAK EURO -- CURRENCY VOLATILITY PUSHES MONEY INTO GOLD -- HOMEBUILDERS DROP BACK TO 200-DAY AVERAGE

ECB IS EXPECTED TO START QE TOMORROW... The ECB is expected to announce a quantitative easing program tomorrow (Thursday) which will involve buying sovereign bonds. [A leak today outlining some of the details of that program helped stabilize stocks here and in Europe]. Expectations for QE over the past few...   READ MORE 

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WEBINAR CHARTS -- IWM AND IWC STILL HOLDING BREAKOUTS -- RSP AND SPY STALL AFTER BREAKOUTS -- SECTOR PERFORMANCE REFLECTS A MIXED MARKET -- RANKING 27 SECTORS -- QQQ AND TOP TECHS LAG -- A...

WEBINAR CHARTS -- IWM AND IWC STILL HOLDING BREAKOUTS -- RSP AND SPY STALL AFTER BREAKOUTS -- SECTOR PERFORMANCE REFLECTS A MIXED MARKET -- RANKING 27 SECTORS -- QQQ AND TOP TECHS LAG -- AIRLINES CONTINUE TO LEAD

WEBINAR CHARTS ... Click here for the Webinar recording. These are the charts and commentary from Tuesday's Webinar (20-January). Trading remains quite choppy and we can see this in sector performance since early November. In fact, the stock market as a whole has gone nowhere since early November. Well,...   READ MORE 

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The Rest of the World May be About to Beat US Equities for a While

The Rest of the World May be About to Beat US Equities for a While

* Europe and Emerging Market equities positioned to move higher. * Philippine ETF breaks to the upside. * Silver breaks convincingly to the upside. * Gold breaks out against US equities. US versus the World The trend favoring US equities over most of the rest of the world, may be in the process of...   READ MORE 

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PUTTING THE PULLBACK INTO PERSPECTIVE -- RISK INDICATORS TURN NEGATIVE -- UTILITIES AND REITS CONTINUE TO ROCK -- WHY SO MANY NEW HIGHS IN XLF? -- XLY TESTS SUPPORT AS HIGH-LOW PERCENT TEE...

PUTTING THE PULLBACK INTO PERSPECTIVE -- RISK INDICATORS TURN NEGATIVE -- UTILITIES AND REITS CONTINUE TO ROCK -- WHY SO MANY NEW HIGHS IN XLF? -- XLY TESTS SUPPORT AS HIGH-LOW PERCENT TEETERS

PUTTING THE DECLINE INTO PERSPECTIVE... Link for today's video. The financial markets have been quite risk averse lately and the US stock market has been quite defensive over the last few weeks, but the S&P 500 is still less then 5% from an all time closing...   READ MORE 

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COPPER PLUNGES TO SIX-YEAR LOW -- FREEPORT MCMORAN PLUNGES ALONG WITH IT -- 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 20-MONTH LOW ON DEFLATION -- FALLING BOND YIELDS HURT BANK STOCKS -- RISING VIX SUGG...

COPPER PLUNGES TO SIX-YEAR LOW -- FREEPORT MCMORAN PLUNGES ALONG WITH IT -- 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 20-MONTH LOW ON DEFLATION -- FALLING BOND YIELDS HURT BANK STOCKS -- RISING VIX SUGGESTS PERIOD OF LOW VOLATILITY MAY BE ENDING

COPPER FALLS TO SIX-YEAR LOW... It seems all we've hearing about lately is the plunge in the price of oil. That has led to a debate as to whether the plunge in crude is just the result of increased supply, or a sign of a weakening global economy....   READ MORE 

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WEBINAR CHARTS - KEEPING YOUR EYE ON THE TREND -- SMALL-CAPS AND MICRO-CAPS ARE STILL OK -- INDEX AD LINES HOLD SUPPORT -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH -- A NOT-SO-SURPRISING...

WEBINAR CHARTS - KEEPING YOUR EYE ON THE TREND -- SMALL-CAPS AND MICRO-CAPS ARE STILL OK -- INDEX AD LINES HOLD SUPPORT -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH -- A NOT-SO-SURPRISING SMALL-CAP LEADER -- FOUR STRONG SMALL-CAP SECTORS

KEEPING YOUR EYE ON THE TREND... Link for today's video. These are the charts and commentary from Tuesday's Webinar (13-January). Trading has turned choppy in the major index ETFs since mid November, but sideways price action is not enough to derail the bigger uptrends. There are...   READ MORE 

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TRACKING 10 KEY INDUSTRY GROUP ETF'S -- BANKS POINT SOUTHWEST AS HOMEBUILDERS POINT NORTHEAST -- ENERGY SHARES LEAD MARKET LOWER -- FINANCE SPDR FILLS A PAIR OF GAPS -- REGIONAL BANKS WEIG...

TRACKING 10 KEY INDUSTRY GROUP ETF'S -- BANKS POINT SOUTHWEST AS HOMEBUILDERS POINT NORTHEAST -- ENERGY SHARES LEAD MARKET LOWER -- FINANCE SPDR FILLS A PAIR OF GAPS -- REGIONAL BANKS WEIGH ON FINANCE SECTOR -- 5-YR YIELD AND STOCK MARKET CORRELATION

TRACKING 10 KEY INDUSTRY GROUP ETF'S... Link for today's video. PerfChart 1 shows year-to-date performance for 10 ETFs that represent different groups in the stock market. I normally use the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services SPDR (XES) and the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) on...   READ MORE 

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Friday's Stock Market Action Hints at Further Weakness to Come Near-term

Friday's Stock Market Action Hints at Further Weakness to Come Near-term

* World Stock ETF getting closer to completing a top. * Gold in euro and yen build on recent breakouts. * Dollar denominated gold close to an upside breakout. US Equities On Friday the S & P Composite ($SPX) experienced the second day of a dark cloud cover formation, a bearish candlestick pattern....   READ MORE 

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MID-CAP SPDR TURNS CHOPPY, BUT MAINTAINS DIRECTIONAL BIAS -- KEY LEVELS TO WATCH FOR THE OFFENSIVE SECTOR ETFS -- DO SECTOR ROTATIONS SUPPORT THE BULLS? (RRG DEMO) -- ECONOMIC INDICATORS S...

MID-CAP SPDR TURNS CHOPPY, BUT MAINTAINS DIRECTIONAL BIAS -- KEY LEVELS TO WATCH FOR THE OFFENSIVE SECTOR ETFS -- DO SECTOR ROTATIONS SUPPORT THE BULLS? (RRG DEMO) -- ECONOMIC INDICATORS SHOW MORE STRENGTH THAN WEAKNESS

MID-CAP SPDR TURNS CHOPPY, BUT MAINTAINS DIRECTIONAL BIAS... Link for today's video. Establishing support and resistance levels for indices and ETFs with dozens of stocks is a challenge because there are so many moving parts (stocks). Instead of exact support-resistance levels based on one chart feature, I prefer...   READ MORE 

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MARKET INDEXES SCORE BIG GAINS -- EUROPE GAINS EVEN MORE AND BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT -- ENERGY SHARES REBOUND WITHIN MAJOR DOWNTREND -- HOMEBUILDER ETF RESUMES UPTREND

MARKET INDEXES SCORE BIG GAINS -- EUROPE GAINS EVEN MORE AND BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT -- ENERGY SHARES REBOUND WITHIN MAJOR DOWNTREND -- HOMEBUILDER ETF RESUMES UPTREND

STOCK INDEXES SCORE BIG GAINS... Global stocks are experiencing a nice bounce today with major U.S. stock indexes experiencing gains of nearly 2%. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials climbing well above its 50-day average after holding above chart support at its mid-December low. Chart 2 shows a similar...   READ MORE 

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NEXT DOWNSIDE TARGET FOR CRUDE OIL RANGES FROM $40 TO THE MID-$30S -- GLOBAL DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES PULL 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BELOW 2% -- FALLING FOREIGN CURRENCIES SHOW WEAKNESS ABROAD...

NEXT DOWNSIDE TARGET FOR CRUDE OIL RANGES FROM $40 TO THE MID-$30S -- GLOBAL DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES PULL 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BELOW 2% -- FALLING FOREIGN CURRENCIES SHOW WEAKNESS ABROAD -- EMU ISHARES HAVE WEIGHED ON U.S. STOCKS

LONGER RANGE VIEW OF CRUDE OIL ... The plunging price of oil is driving financial trends all over the world. Plunging oil is hurting energy companies that produce that commodity, as well as countries that are energy exporters. In addition, its deflationary effect is pulling global bond yields lower and contributing...   READ MORE 

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SPY CORRECTS WITHIN WELL DEFINED UPTREND -- RISK INDICATORS TURNED MIXED -- JUNK BONDS GET SLAMMED AGAIN -- TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE -- NEW HIGHS DRY UP, BUT BREADTH REMAIN BUL...

SPY CORRECTS WITHIN WELL DEFINED UPTREND -- RISK INDICATORS TURNED MIXED -- JUNK BONDS GET SLAMMED AGAIN -- TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE -- NEW HIGHS DRY UP, BUT BREADTH REMAIN BULLISH -- UTILITIES AND FINANCE STILL LEAD SECTOR BREADTH

SPY AND DIA CORRECT WITHIN WELL DEFINED UPTRENDS... Stocks were hit with intense selling pressure over the last few days, but these declines have yet to turn key breadth indicators bearish or even test major support levels. Today we will look at three major index charts, some key breadth charts,...   READ MORE 

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MSCI World ETF and NYSE Composite Violate their 12-month Moving Averages. Is This the Start of a Primary Bear Market?

MSCI World ETF and NYSE Composite Violate their 12-month Moving Averages. Is This the Start of a Primary Bear Market?

* Much expected Santa Rally did not happen and that’s bearish. * MSCI Europe Australia Far East ETF right on the brink of a major breakdown. * Small caps may have experienced a false upside breakout. * Chinese ETF breaks out big time on both an absolute and relative basis. In my mid-December...   READ MORE 

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OIL SINKS TO YET ANOTHER NEW LOW -- ENERGY SPDR REVERSES IN KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- STEEL STOCKS WEIGH ON METALS & MINING SPDR -- GOLD AND THE 2011 EUROPEAN CRISIS -- GOLD AND THE 2015 CHA...

OIL SINKS TO YET ANOTHER NEW LOW -- ENERGY SPDR REVERSES IN KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- STEEL STOCKS WEIGH ON METALS & MINING SPDR -- GOLD AND THE 2011 EUROPEAN CRISIS -- GOLD AND THE 2015 CHART -- GOLD, THE DOLLAR AND CORRELATION

OIL SINKS TO YET ANOTHER NEW LOW... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the USO Oil Fund (USO) falling some 3% on Monday and hitting yet another new low. The pattern since August has been decline, consolidate, break down and repeat. Oil has not really bounced the...   READ MORE 

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THE 18-YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE HITTING ANOTHER PEAK -- THE CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX NEARS SIX-YEAR HIGH -- RISING REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS ARE LEADING I...

THE 18-YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE HITTING ANOTHER PEAK -- THE CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX NEARS SIX-YEAR HIGH -- RISING REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS ARE LEADING INDICATORS -- WE'RE STILL IN EARLY STAGES OF REAL ESTATE UPTURN

THERE IS AN 18-YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE ... My 2013 book entitled "Trading With Intermarket Analysis" described the existence of an 18-year real estate cycle. In other words, real estate tends to peak about every 18 years. This reliable pattern has been traced back to the 1800s. Credit for...   READ MORE 

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An Important Move is Likely for Gold and Silver in Early 2015. Here are the Chart Points to Watch

An Important Move is Likely for Gold and Silver in Early 2015. Here are the Chart Points to Watch

* Dollar based gold is in a bear market. * Yen and euro denominated gold are in primary bull markets. * Gold shares complete a massive top. Last week we reviewed the technical picture of the major currencies. This week it is the turn of the precious metals because the finely balanced technical...   READ MORE 

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CHINA AND INDIA ARE EMERGING MARKET WINNERS -- FALLING OIL HURTS BRAZIL AND RUSSIA -- SHANGHAI STOCKS END YEAR AT THREE YEAR HIGH -- NEW ETFS OFFER EXPOSURE TO SHANGHAI A-SHARES, BUT MAY N...

CHINA AND INDIA ARE EMERGING MARKET WINNERS -- FALLING OIL HURTS BRAZIL AND RUSSIA -- SHANGHAI STOCKS END YEAR AT THREE YEAR HIGH -- NEW ETFS OFFER EXPOSURE TO SHANGHAI A-SHARES, BUT MAY NOT BE LIQUID ENOUGH

BRIC DIVERGENCE... The year 2014 saw very diverging trends among the world's largest emerging market stocks. The lines in Chart 1 show those diverging trends among the four BRIC countries that are Brazil, Russia, India, and China. I'm using exchange traded funds here because they take...   READ MORE 

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BROADCASTING AND ENTERTAINMENT INDEX HITS NEW HIGH -- MEDIA ETF BREAKS FROM MASSIVE WEDGE -- CARNIVAL AND ROYAL CARIBBEAN LIFT PEJ TO NEW HIGH -- IS CBS COMING OUT OF A BIG CORRECTION? --...

BROADCASTING AND ENTERTAINMENT INDEX HITS NEW HIGH -- MEDIA ETF BREAKS FROM MASSIVE WEDGE -- CARNIVAL AND ROYAL CARIBBEAN LIFT PEJ TO NEW HIGH -- IS CBS COMING OUT OF A BIG CORRECTION? -- BBT GETS BACK IN SYNC WITH SPY -- FITB FORMS BIG REVERSAL PATTERN

BROADCASTING AND ENTERTAINMENT INDEX HITS NEW HIGH... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the DJ US Broadcasting and Entertainment Index ($DJUSBC) in the main window and the S&P 500 in the indicator window. Instead of using the price relative ($DJUSBC:$SPX ratio) to compare performance,...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND IJR SCORE NEW HIGHS -- FINANCIALS LEAD SMALL-CAPS HIGHER -- SMALL AND MID CAP AD LINES LEAD -- SECTOR AD LINES SHOW BROAD STRENGTH -- UTILITIES AND FINANCE LEAD HIGH-LOW RANKING

IWM AND IJR SCORE NEW HIGHS -- FINANCIALS LEAD SMALL-CAPS HIGHER -- SMALL AND MID CAP AD LINES LEAD -- SECTOR AD LINES SHOW BROAD STRENGTH -- UTILITIES AND FINANCE LEAD HIGH-LOW RANKING

IWM AND IJR SCORE NEW HIGHS... Link for today's video. Barring a big plunge the next few days, small-caps are going out with a bang this year. Small-caps lagged the broader market throughout 2014 because the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR)...   READ MORE 

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End Of The Year Dollar Index Review

End Of The Year Dollar Index Review

* Long-term dollar rally likely to continue. * Yuan on the edge of a breakdown. * January is tied with November as the most bullish month for the dollar. * Short-term dollar momentum overstretched but re-accelerating to the upside. Currencies At the end of August the US Dollar Index ($USD) broke out from a...   READ MORE 

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SOME NEW AND CONTINUING THEMES FOR 2015 -- SHORT-TERM T-YIELDS RISE AND HALF NORMALIZE -- EURO MOVES CLOSER TO PARITY -- SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET -- XLF AND IAI TARGET 2007 HIGH -- XLE C...

SOME NEW AND CONTINUING THEMES FOR 2015 -- SHORT-TERM T-YIELDS RISE AND HALF NORMALIZE -- EURO MOVES CLOSER TO PARITY -- SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET -- XLF AND IAI TARGET 2007 HIGH -- XLE CONFIRMS LARGE REVERSAL PATTERN

SOME NEW AND CONTINUING THEMES FOR 2015... Today's Webinar will look at long-term charts to extrapolate some themes to consider in 2015. This written commentary shows most of the Webinar charts with some brief notes. Tune into the Webinar for full details. Every so often we get a...   READ MORE 

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S&P MIDCAP INDEX FORMS BIG CONTINUATION PATTERN -- EQUAL-WEIGHT STARTS OUTPERFORMING CAP-WEIGHT -- SMALL-CAP FINANCE AND TECH SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS -- SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR EXTENDS STRONG UPT...

S&P MIDCAP INDEX FORMS BIG CONTINUATION PATTERN -- EQUAL-WEIGHT STARTS OUTPERFORMING CAP-WEIGHT -- SMALL-CAP FINANCE AND TECH SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS -- SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR EXTENDS STRONG UPTREND -- CAVIUM AND RF MICRO LEAD SEMIS

S&P MIDCAP INDEX FORMS BIG CONTINUATION PATTERN... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the S&P MidCap 400 hitting a new high at the beginning of July and then forming a large consolidation the last six months. Actually, the index hit another all time...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY SHARES LEAD U.S. STOCKS HIGHER -- SMALL CAPS BREAKOUT -- FOREIGN STOCKS ALSO BOUNCE ON FIRMER CRUDE PRICE -- SO DO HIGH YIELD BONDS -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS BOUNCE FROM DEEP OVERSOLD C...

ENERGY SHARES LEAD U.S. STOCKS HIGHER -- SMALL CAPS BREAKOUT -- FOREIGN STOCKS ALSO BOUNCE ON FIRMER CRUDE PRICE -- SO DO HIGH YIELD BONDS -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS BOUNCE FROM DEEP OVERSOLD CONDITION AND MAJOR SUPPORT

US STOCKS END WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE... A combination of factors pushed U.S. (and global) stocks sharply higher during the second half of the week. One big factor was the Wednesday Fed statement that it would be "patient" in raising rates next year. Another was a...   READ MORE 

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MICRO-CAPS TAKE THE LEAD ON RELATIVE ROTATION GRAPH -- MICROCAP ETF BREAKS BIG CHANNEL -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT INDICATORS WHIP BACK TO BULLISH -- MINDING THE GAPS -- UTILITY ETFS BREAK OUT ACR...

MICRO-CAPS TAKE THE LEAD ON RELATIVE ROTATION GRAPH -- MICROCAP ETF BREAKS BIG CHANNEL -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT INDICATORS WHIP BACK TO BULLISH -- MINDING THE GAPS -- UTILITY ETFS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE BOARD -- SYMBOLS FOR SECTOR ETFS

MICRO-CAPS TAKE THE LEAD ON RELATIVE ROTATION GRAPH ... Link for today's video. Small-caps, mid-caps and micro-caps are starting to show some relative strength. John Murphy noted that the January effect was boosting small-caps as the Russell 2000 started outperforming the Russell 1000 recently. We can also see an...   READ MORE 

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TRADERS ARE BUYING IN ANTICIPATION OF YEAREND SANTA CLAUS RALLY -- JANUARY EFFECT STARTS BOOSTING SMALL CAPS IN MID-DECEMBER -- WE'RE NOW IN THE SWEET SPOT OF THE MIDTERM ELECTION CYCLE --...

TRADERS ARE BUYING IN ANTICIPATION OF YEAREND SANTA CLAUS RALLY -- JANUARY EFFECT STARTS BOOSTING SMALL CAPS IN MID-DECEMBER -- WE'RE NOW IN THE SWEET SPOT OF THE MIDTERM ELECTION CYCLE -- AND FOREIGN STOCKS ARE REBOUNDING

SANTA CLAUS RALLY IS STILL AHEAD ... The stock market is benefiting from a number of seasonal trends which should last well into the new year. For one thing, the month of November starts the "best three months" span that lasts into January, and the "best six months&...   READ MORE 

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MARKET LIKES FED INTENTION TO STAY PATIENT -- OVERSOLD ENERGY STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL STOCK RALLY -- XLE IS ALSO IN POTENTIAL SUPPORT ZONE-- US STOCK INDEXES REGAIN 50-DAY LINE -- CANADIAN STOC...

MARKET LIKES FED INTENTION TO STAY PATIENT -- OVERSOLD ENERGY STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL STOCK RALLY -- XLE IS ALSO IN POTENTIAL SUPPORT ZONE-- US STOCK INDEXES REGAIN 50-DAY LINE -- CANADIAN STOCKS BOUNCE SHARPLY OFF OCTOBER LOW

STOCKS AND BOND YIELDS JUMP... The Fed promised to remain "patient" in raising rates next year. Stocks liked the news, Treasuries didn't. Fixed income yields rose with the bigger gains in the shorter end of the yield curve. Chart 1 shows the 5-Year T-Note Yield ($FVX)...   READ MORE 

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Equities still Look Vulnerable Notwithstanding a Possible Reflexive Bounce

Equities still Look Vulnerable Notwithstanding a Possible Reflexive Bounce

* Dichotomy in the credit markets is extending. * Dim Sum bonds at a critical juncture. * Gold asset markets weakening again. US Equities Statistics tell us that December is the most bullish month of the year for equities. Interestingly, the November-January period offers the best performing consecutive months of the year (S&...   READ MORE 

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WEBINAR CHARTS -- RISK ON OR RISK OFF? -- PUTTING A 5% DECLINE INTO PERSPECTIVE -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT FOR XLI TURNS BEARISH -- SHORT-TERM BREADT...

WEBINAR CHARTS -- RISK ON OR RISK OFF? -- PUTTING A 5% DECLINE INTO PERSPECTIVE -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT FOR XLI TURNS BEARISH -- SHORT-TERM BREADTH REMAINS BEARISH -- GOLD, OIL, DOLLAR AND BONDS

WEBINAR CHARTS... The charts below are from Tuesday's Webinar and include some basic commentary. See the webinar recording for more details. I also covered eleven stocks (AAPL, ORCL, CSCO, BAC, UTX, EOG, CIEN, JSDU, UPS, CHRW, JBHT). There was a demo showing the different ways to measure relative...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL ETF'S CONTINUE TO LEAD -- APPAREL AND SPECIALTY GROUPS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SECTOR SUMMARY DEMO -- RS LINES HIT NEW HIGHS FOR BBBY, DSW AND PLCE -- RESTAURANT INDEX PULLS BACK...

RETAIL ETF'S CONTINUE TO LEAD -- APPAREL AND SPECIALTY GROUPS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SECTOR SUMMARY DEMO -- RS LINES HIT NEW HIGHS FOR BBBY, DSW AND PLCE -- RESTAURANT INDEX PULLS BACK AFTER NEW HIGH -- TXRH AND BWLD LEAD RESTAURANT GROUP

RETAIL ETF'S CONTINUE TO LEAD ... Link for today's video. John Murphy pointed out the negative correlation between retail stocks and the price of oil in early December. In short, retail stocks rose sharply as the price of oil fell sharply. This theme continues to play out...   READ MORE 

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OIL PLUNGES BELOW $60 ON FORECAST FOR LOWER DEMAND -- OIL EXPORTERS CONTINUE TO LEAD GLOBAL STOCK DECLINE -- RUSSIAN WEAKNESS HURTS EUROPE -- LATIN AMERICA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES T...

OIL PLUNGES BELOW $60 ON FORECAST FOR LOWER DEMAND -- OIL EXPORTERS CONTINUE TO LEAD GLOBAL STOCK DECLINE -- RUSSIAN WEAKNESS HURTS EUROPE -- LATIN AMERICA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES TO NEW LOWS

IEA CUTS OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN... Crude oil can't catch a break. Plunging oil prices over the past few months have been attributed mainly to increasing supplies, largely resulting in the shale revolution in the U.S. This week, however, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast...   READ MORE 

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USING BREADTH INDICATORS FOR SHORT-TERM SIGNALS -- QQQ CORRECTION TARGET -- AROONS GO PARALLEL ON IWM CHART -- BOND MARKET SHOWS RISK AVERSION -- MATERIALS SECTOR BREAKS DOWN -- GOLD MINER...

USING BREADTH INDICATORS FOR SHORT-TERM SIGNALS -- QQQ CORRECTION TARGET -- AROONS GO PARALLEL ON IWM CHART -- BOND MARKET SHOWS RISK AVERSION -- MATERIALS SECTOR BREAKS DOWN -- GOLD MINERS ETF STALLS AFTER BOUNCE

USING BREADTH INDICATORS FOR SHORT-TERM SIGNALS... Link for today's video. The economic news has been pretty good lately, but stocks came under selling pressure and did not act very well. First, I should note that I am not that interested in the news per se. Instead, I am...   READ MORE 

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Two Benchmarks that will Likely Signal the Direction of the Next Major Equity Move

Two Benchmarks that will Likely Signal the Direction of the Next Major Equity Move

* Stocks likely to resume their downtrend vis a vis bonds. * Emerging Markets ETF resting on a key trend line. * Different bond maturities moving in different directions. US Equities The battle lines are being drawn for the next major move in the equity market. For the NYSE Composite ($NYA) those lines...   READ MORE 

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CANADA TUMBLES ON FALLING OIL ALONG WITH MEXICO -- EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES HIT NINE-MONTH LOW -- ENERGY SECTOR TUMBLES AGAIN -- ENERGY SELLING HERE AND ABROAD SPILLS OVER TO BROADER MARKE...

CANADA TUMBLES ON FALLING OIL ALONG WITH MEXICO -- EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES HIT NINE-MONTH LOW -- ENERGY SECTOR TUMBLES AGAIN -- ENERGY SELLING HERE AND ABROAD SPILLS OVER TO BROADER MARKET -- S&P 500 SUFFERS SHORT-TERM DOWNTURN--

FOREIGNS SHARES ARE FALLING ... Foreign shares are falling today, especially those that export oil. Chart 1 shows the Toronto $TSX Composite Index tumbling nearly -2.4% and nearing a test of its October low. The Canada/SPX ratio (solid line) is falling even faster. Emerging markets tied to oil are...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS SURGE TO KEEP THE FLAG ALIVE -- S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 LEAD HIGH-LOW INDICATORS -- HINDENBURG OMEN TRIGGERS -- FINANCE, HEALTHCARE AND UTILITIES LEAD SECTOR HIGH-LOW PERCENT --...

SMALL-CAPS SURGE TO KEEP THE FLAG ALIVE -- S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 LEAD HIGH-LOW INDICATORS -- HINDENBURG OMEN TRIGGERS -- FINANCE, HEALTHCARE AND UTILITIES LEAD SECTOR HIGH-LOW PERCENT -- THREE KEY INDUSTRY GROUP ETFS MAKING NEW HIGHS

SMALL-CAPS SURGE TO KEEP THE FLAG ALIVE... Link for today's Webinar video. The brief commentary and charts are from today's webinar. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 bouncing off its first support zone today. Chart 2 shows the S&P MidCap 400 consolidating...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND IJR FLY THE FLAG AT HALF MAST -- SMALL-CAP SECTORS TAKE THE LEAD -- SMALLCAP FINANCIALS ETF BREAKS FLAG TREND LINE -- INTERNET LEADERS AND LAGGARDS -- INTERNET ETF STALLS OUT -- FA...

IWM AND IJR FLY THE FLAG AT HALF MAST -- SMALL-CAP SECTORS TAKE THE LEAD -- SMALLCAP FINANCIALS ETF BREAKS FLAG TREND LINE -- INTERNET LEADERS AND LAGGARDS -- INTERNET ETF STALLS OUT -- FACEBOOK FORMS A BIG CONSOLIDATION

IWM AND IJR FLY THE FLAG AT HALF MAST ... Programming Note: I will be doing a Webinar tomorrow at 1PM ET in place of the Market Message and video. You can register here. With a little help from financial services, the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) had its best week since...   READ MORE 

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Global Equity Market Roundup

Global Equity Market Roundup

* USA still leading the way on the upside. * Russian and Mexican ETF’s break to the downside. * EEM components offering a mixed picture. * The two sides of Japan. International Equities With the US, German, Japanese, Indian, New Zealand, Pakistani  and several other markets joining the US in new all-time high...   READ MORE 

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GERMAN DAX HITS RECORD HIGH AS EUROPE STRENGTHENS -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX RECORDS EIGHT-YEAR HIGH -- SPREAD BETWEEN US AND GERMAN BOND YIELD WIDENS -- U.S. TWO-YEAR YIELD HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH...

GERMAN DAX HITS RECORD HIGH AS EUROPE STRENGTHENS -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX RECORDS EIGHT-YEAR HIGH -- SPREAD BETWEEN US AND GERMAN BOND YIELD WIDENS -- U.S. TWO-YEAR YIELD HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH ON STONG JOBS REPORT -- FINANCIALS SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP

GERMAN DAX CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH ... German stocks sold off Thursday after the ECB delayed further monetary easing until the first quarter. Later reports that more monetary stimulus might come as early as January helped boost European stocks which rallied sharply on Friday. Chart 1 shows the German DAX Composite...   READ MORE