We spend a lot of time analyzing sector rotation, but there are also other relationships that can offer useful insights to internal market dynamics. One aspect of this is the relationship between market averages. NASDAQ vs. the DJIA As an example, Chart 1 plots the relationship between the NASDAQ Composite... READ MORE
PEAK IN OIL LED TO PEAK IN BOND YIELDS... Previous messages have shown a drop in bond yields starting a month ago coinciding with the fourth quarter rally in stocks. But there's another element in that story which is a sharp drop in the price of oil. That&... READ MORE
In this video, Larry begins with a followup on the October rally kickoff. He then covers stocks like CRWD, META, NVDA, LULU, and DKNG. Larry answers questions about seasonal and cyclical differences, his personal indicators, and what retailers rely most on for the Christmas season. He highlights some trades that... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Standard Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show will be recorded and posted online for those of you who cannot attend. Use the link below to join: Link to Join Webinar:... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Thursday, November 16 at 2:00pm EST. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE
I last wrote about bonds and interest rates in August, as they were in the process of challenging their October 2022 highs. My conclusion at the time was that they were likely to go through, but that upside potential would be limited due to what seemed at the time to... READ MORE
NASDAQ CLEARS OCTOBER HIGH.. .After spending the week in a holding pattern, stocks are ending the week on a strong note and appear poised to continue their fourth quarter uptrend. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 testing its mid-October high and nearing an upside breakout. Odds for an... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an upbeat article on the market, pointing out the fact that many short- and intermediate-term indicators were in a potentially bullish position at a time when stocks seemed impervious to bad news. I concluded "That does not mean the market will go... READ MORE
TEN YEAR BOND YIELD MEETS RESISTANCE AT 5%... The 10-Year Treasury yield backed off sharply this week from long-term resistance near 5.00%. The upper box in Chart 1 also shows its 14-day RSI line peaking from overbought territory over 70 and falling to the lowest level in several months.... READ MORE
Understandably, most Middle Eastern country ETFs have performed poorly since the war broke out, but there is one noticeable exception, which I will get to later. Israel First, as might be expected, the iShares Israel ETF (EIS) has moved lower and completed what looks to be a massive top. The... READ MORE
The Million Dollar Stock Market Bet Warren Buffett proved his point in 2016 when he bet $1,000,000 that the S&P 500 Stock Index would outperform hedge funds. His bet was that active investment management by professionals would under-perform the returns of people who were passively investing.... READ MORE
S&P 500 BREAKS 200-DAY LINE...Last week's message showed the S&P 500 testing important support lines which included its 200-day moving average. Those support levels are being broken to the downside. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the SPX falling below its 200-... READ MORE
When Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt was assassinated in 1981, gold rallied sharply over the near-term, but the advance soon petered out. The reason was that gold was in a primary bear market, so the advance merely represented a counter-cyclical move. Gold has rallied sharply since the Middle East crisis... READ MORE
October is a significant month in the stock market, and in this pre-election year, there's a lot of uncertainty among investors, which makes the stock market more volatile. In this video, Larry discusses the October Seasonality and talks about stocks that generally perform well during the month. You&... READ MORE
Today, we will be having a "Family Gathering" meeting at 11 AM Pacific/2:00 PM Eastern. The show will be recorded and posted online for those of you who cannot attend. Use the link below to join: Link to join Webinar https://stockcharts.zoom.us/j/85377769524... READ MORE
NEARLY AT 5%... Previous messages have mentioned 5% as the next major upside target for the 10-Year Treasury yield. The TNX hit 4.99% today. Chart 1 shows the next potential target at 5.25% which was the closing high formed sixteen years ago. That previous peak may provide some... READ MORE
I must say, I was surprised that the outbreak of war in the Middle East and a 4% rise in oil sent the market higher, not lower by the close of business last Monday. Typically, a market that does not respond to bad news in a negative way is one... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Friday, October 20th at 2:00pm EDT. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE
Several short-term charts suggest the SPDR Real Estate ETF (XLRE) is getting ready to rock and roll, thereby indicating an extension to this week's rebound is in the cards. It's possible that the expected rally could result in shifting some of the longer-term indicators towards a... READ MORE
S$P 500 TESTS TRENDLINE SUPPORT AND 200-DAY AVERAGE... Last week's message suggested that the S&P 500 was headed for a test of its 200-day moving average (red line) and a rising trendline drawn under its October/March lows. Chart 1 shows that test taking place... READ MORE
The Dollar Index I last wrote an article on the dollar in August, The Dollar Index Goes to Missouri. In it, I pointed out that the Index had reached crucial resistance, which, if surpassed, would signal a new primary bull market and a likely fourth up leg to the secular... READ MORE
First & Foremost I want to personally thank you for subscribing to "Focus on Stocks". I will do all I can to earn the confidence you have placed in me. -- Larry Williams Is it a Different World? "I have to pay attention to the implications of... READ MORE
SEPTEMBER SECTOR RANKING... September has lived up to its reputation of being the year's weakest month. All major stock indexes have fallen during the month. And so have most S&P sectors -- except for one. Chart 1 shows energy being the only sector to end the... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the S&P Composite, like both A/D Lines, has completed and decisively broken down from a head-and-shoulders top. The two breadth indicators have also violated their bull market up trendlines. On the surface, things look pretty grim, with three seasonally weak September days left... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD HITS 16-YEAR HIGH...Recent market messages have been focusing on the upturn in energy prices which threatened to boost inflation pressures and put upward pressure on bond yields. Those same messages have shown the 10-year Treasury yield nearing an upside breakout. That breakout took place this week... READ MORE
As a follower of my "Focus on Stocks" blog, you know we had a signal to sell on the opening Sunday night (10th day left). That was forecast last month... now I think it's time to start to get long. Where? At the August lows. When?... READ MORE
The title of this article should really be more in the vein of two technical situations I am watching, because the long-term forces look as if they may be converging with short-term ones to form a kind of potential bullish reverse domino effect. Let's consider our first candidate,... READ MORE
Larry's "Family Gathering" webinar is now available! Whether you missed it and need to catch up, or just want to review the information Larry presented, you can now see the full recording below. In this special presentation, Larry coaches viewers for success and explains his strategies... READ MORE
RISING OIL PRICES HURT TRANSPORTS... Transportation stocks are one of the groups most sensitive to the direction of energy prices. That makes sense since fuel is so important to their bottom line. And not surprisingly, they've been one of the market's weakest groups over the last... READ MORE
The overall market has been rallying since registering its low last October. However, there is one sector which, in August, fell below its October low on a monthly closing basis. More serious is the fact that it recently violated a 23-year secular up trendline. Can you guess which sector I... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Thursday, September 14th at 3:00pm EDT. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE
ENERGY BREAKOUTS... Several previous messages have talked about upside breakouts taking place in energy stocks. And that trend has only gotten stronger both in the stocks and the commodity. The upper box in Chart 1 shows the price of WTIC crude oil rising to the highest level since last November.... READ MORE
The business cycle has been with us for as long as reliable financial records have been available, and that's at least 200 years. It may seem to be a mysterious force, but it is nothing more than a set sequence of chronological events that just keeps repeating. The... READ MORE
Cycle Deep Dive At times, it seems there are as many cycles as there are traders. I have been focusing on the shorter-term ones, those ranging from 2 to 5 years. Recently, I pondered on the clear fact that cycle forecasts work far better to spot market bottoms than tops.... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Comparing risky asskets with more conservative ones can reflect investor confidence * Negative divergences offer subtle indications of a deterioration of a stock market rally * An upward trend indicates that investor confidence is positive Traders and investors pay a lot of attention to surveys to assess swings in sentiment,... READ MORE
ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE BOUNCING... A glance at various measures of market breadth offers good and bad news. All of them are lagging behind the S&P 500 which is a caution sign. The good news is that they're bouncing off potential support lines. Chart 1 compares the S&... READ MORE
The Dollar Index has experienced a nice rally since mid-July and now reached important resistance. It's time to show us whether it can push through, thereby signaling an important extension to the recent advance. Before we examine that possibility, however, let's briefly take a step backwards... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR YIELD TESTING OCTOBER HIGH... Last week's message suggested that rising bond yields (along with rising energy prices) was one of the factors that could push an overbought stock market into a downside pullback. More on that shortly. The big story of the week, however, was how much... READ MORE
Larry's "Family Gathering" webinar is now available! Whether you missed it and need to catch up, or just want to review the information Larry presented, you can now see the full recording below. In this special presentation, Larry discusses market cycles in detail, outlines his proprietary... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Thursday, August 17th at 4:00pm EDT. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE