Today, we will be having a "Family Gathering" meeting at 11 AM Pacific/2:00 PM Eastern. The show will be recorded and posted online for those of you who cannot attend. Use the link below to join: Link to join Webinar https://stockcharts.zoom.us/j/85377769524... READ MORE
NEARLY AT 5%... Previous messages have mentioned 5% as the next major upside target for the 10-Year Treasury yield. The TNX hit 4.99% today. Chart 1 shows the next potential target at 5.25% which was the closing high formed sixteen years ago. That previous peak may provide some... READ MORE
I must say, I was surprised that the outbreak of war in the Middle East and a 4% rise in oil sent the market higher, not lower by the close of business last Monday. Typically, a market that does not respond to bad news in a negative way is one... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Friday, October 20th at 2:00pm EDT. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE
Several short-term charts suggest the SPDR Real Estate ETF (XLRE) is getting ready to rock and roll, thereby indicating an extension to this week's rebound is in the cards. It's possible that the expected rally could result in shifting some of the longer-term indicators towards a... READ MORE
S$P 500 TESTS TRENDLINE SUPPORT AND 200-DAY AVERAGE... Last week's message suggested that the S&P 500 was headed for a test of its 200-day moving average (red line) and a rising trendline drawn under its October/March lows. Chart 1 shows that test taking place... READ MORE
The Dollar Index I last wrote an article on the dollar in August, The Dollar Index Goes to Missouri. In it, I pointed out that the Index had reached crucial resistance, which, if surpassed, would signal a new primary bull market and a likely fourth up leg to the secular... READ MORE
First & Foremost I want to personally thank you for subscribing to "Focus on Stocks". I will do all I can to earn the confidence you have placed in me. -- Larry Williams Is it a Different World? "I have to pay attention to the implications of... READ MORE
SEPTEMBER SECTOR RANKING... September has lived up to its reputation of being the year's weakest month. All major stock indexes have fallen during the month. And so have most S&P sectors -- except for one. Chart 1 shows energy being the only sector to end the... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the S&P Composite, like both A/D Lines, has completed and decisively broken down from a head-and-shoulders top. The two breadth indicators have also violated their bull market up trendlines. On the surface, things look pretty grim, with three seasonally weak September days left... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD HITS 16-YEAR HIGH...Recent market messages have been focusing on the upturn in energy prices which threatened to boost inflation pressures and put upward pressure on bond yields. Those same messages have shown the 10-year Treasury yield nearing an upside breakout. That breakout took place this week... READ MORE
As a follower of my "Focus on Stocks" blog, you know we had a signal to sell on the opening Sunday night (10th day left). That was forecast last month... now I think it's time to start to get long. Where? At the August lows. When?... READ MORE
The title of this article should really be more in the vein of two technical situations I am watching, because the long-term forces look as if they may be converging with short-term ones to form a kind of potential bullish reverse domino effect. Let's consider our first candidate,... READ MORE
Larry's "Family Gathering" webinar is now available! Whether you missed it and need to catch up, or just want to review the information Larry presented, you can now see the full recording below. In this special presentation, Larry coaches viewers for success and explains his strategies... READ MORE
RISING OIL PRICES HURT TRANSPORTS... Transportation stocks are one of the groups most sensitive to the direction of energy prices. That makes sense since fuel is so important to their bottom line. And not surprisingly, they've been one of the market's weakest groups over the last... READ MORE
The overall market has been rallying since registering its low last October. However, there is one sector which, in August, fell below its October low on a monthly closing basis. More serious is the fact that it recently violated a 23-year secular up trendline. Can you guess which sector I... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Thursday, September 14th at 3:00pm EDT. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE
ENERGY BREAKOUTS... Several previous messages have talked about upside breakouts taking place in energy stocks. And that trend has only gotten stronger both in the stocks and the commodity. The upper box in Chart 1 shows the price of WTIC crude oil rising to the highest level since last November.... READ MORE
The business cycle has been with us for as long as reliable financial records have been available, and that's at least 200 years. It may seem to be a mysterious force, but it is nothing more than a set sequence of chronological events that just keeps repeating. The... READ MORE
Cycle Deep Dive At times, it seems there are as many cycles as there are traders. I have been focusing on the shorter-term ones, those ranging from 2 to 5 years. Recently, I pondered on the clear fact that cycle forecasts work far better to spot market bottoms than tops.... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Comparing risky asskets with more conservative ones can reflect investor confidence * Negative divergences offer subtle indications of a deterioration of a stock market rally * An upward trend indicates that investor confidence is positive Traders and investors pay a lot of attention to surveys to assess swings in sentiment,... READ MORE
ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE BOUNCING... A glance at various measures of market breadth offers good and bad news. All of them are lagging behind the S&P 500 which is a caution sign. The good news is that they're bouncing off potential support lines. Chart 1 compares the S&... READ MORE
The Dollar Index has experienced a nice rally since mid-July and now reached important resistance. It's time to show us whether it can push through, thereby signaling an important extension to the recent advance. Before we examine that possibility, however, let's briefly take a step backwards... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR YIELD TESTING OCTOBER HIGH... Last week's message suggested that rising bond yields (along with rising energy prices) was one of the factors that could push an overbought stock market into a downside pullback. More on that shortly. The big story of the week, however, was how much... READ MORE
Larry's "Family Gathering" webinar is now available! Whether you missed it and need to catch up, or just want to review the information Larry presented, you can now see the full recording below. In this special presentation, Larry discusses market cycles in detail, outlines his proprietary... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Thursday, August 17th at 4:00pm EDT. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE
The recent rise in interest rates and energy prices is certainly a cause for concern should these trends extend in any meaningful way over the next few months. After all, we are just about to enter September, which is seasonally the worst month of the year for stocks. Following that,... READ MORE
RISING ENERGY PRICES MAY BOOST YIELDS... This week's inflation reports sent a mixed message. July's CPI came in lower while July's PPI came in higher. Bond yields, however, gained more ground. The green bars in the upper box in Chart 1 show the 10-Year... READ MORE
The 30-year yield reached its high point last October and has been rangebound since December. Chart 1 shows that it began to break out of that trading range in late July, but has yet to succeed in taking out the October high. The 14-day RSI is currently correcting from an... READ MORE
UPSIDE ENERGY BREAKOUTS...Last week's message listed energy as the strongest market sector over the last week and month. That positive trend continued this past week with some upside breakouts taking place. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) trading above its April high. WTIC hasn&... READ MORE
Hi Gang. Larry Williams here. Welcome to my new stock market service called "Focus On Stocks," which I'm creating in conjunction with my friends at StockCharts.com. As a "Focus On Stocks" subscriber, you now have access to my latest market analysis. Be sure... READ MORE
There have recently been a lot of depressing stories concerning the state of the Chinese economy. Here are a spattering of headlines that appeared just today: * China's Economic Recovery Weakens as Growth Concerns Linger (WSJ) * China Manufacturing Keeps Shrinking, Weighing on Economic Recovery (Bloomberg) * More Stimulus "Desperately... READ MORE
NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE BREAKS OUT... Stocks gained more ground this week to continue their uptrend. What's helping keep the rally going is the fact that more individual stocks are joining the uptrend. Chart 1 shows the NYSE Advance-Decline line rising above several previous peaks to the reach the... READ MORE
Last April, I wrote about the SVB (SVIB) banking crisis, using the KBW Regional Banking Index ($KRX) as a proxy, and suggested the price action in the right hand part of Chart 1 had the potential to be a double bottom formation. Double bottoms are characterized by heavy activity on... READ MORE
MONEY ROTATES INTO HEALTHCARE... One of the most encouraging developments over the last month has been the rotation into formerly lagging sectors like industrials, financials, and materials. That rotation also includes this week's upside breakout in the Dow Industrials to the highest level in more than a year.... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that several indicators were close to triggering a bull market for commodities. Some of those benchmarks have since been met, but none have yet moved decisively in that direction. Now, it's time to take a deep dive into the copper price, as this... READ MORE
I have been bearish on the primary trend of commodities for some time whilst still maintaining a bullish stance on their secular or very long-term trend. In other words, negative over a 9-month-to-2-year outlook, but constructive on a 10-to-20-year one. The secular aspect is important, because history shows primary bear... READ MORE
ENERGY SECTOR LOOKS OVERSOLD... Energy stocks have been one of the year's weakest sectors. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Energy SPDR (XLE) trading sideways since March and looking oversold. The XLE would need to clear its red 200-day average and falling trendline to signal a... READ MORE
There has been a notable shift in expectations concerning rate hikes going forward, as several Fed spokesmen have floated the idea of additional hikes later in the year. Rising interest rates are generally seen as a negative factor for stocks, as they increase borrowing costs for companies, lowering their profitability... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS GAIN, UTILITIES LOSE... Chart 1 shows transportation stocks rising while utilities are falling. The significance of the chart is that it suggests that investors are turning more positive. That's because stronger transports suggest a stronger economy while falling utilities show that investors are turning less defensive. Airlines... READ MORE