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FINANCIALS LEAD AS XLF AND REM HIT NEW HIGHS -- FOUR FINANCIAL STOCKS TO WATCH -- BASE METALS ETF EXTENDS UPTREND -- ALUMINUM LEADS BASE METALS -- COPPER MINERS ETF CORRECTS WITHIN UPTREND -- 2-YEAR YIELD ENDS PULLBACK AND RESUMES UPTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS LEAD AS XLF AND REM HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for today's video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Equal-weight Finance ETF (RYF) moved to new highs this week to affirm their long-term uptrends. Things can't be all that bad when these two sector ETFs record...
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$SPX SPENDS THE DAY BREAKING THROUGH TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS -- $INDU ONLY 75 POINTS FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS -- THE RUSSELL 2000 ($RUT) STALLS AT 50 DMA -- THE NYSE ADVANCE DECLINE LINE HIT NEW HIGHS TODAY AS WELL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
$SPX SPENDS THE DAY BREAKING THROUGH TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS... While the S&P500 ($SPX) worked through to all time highs today as shown on Chart 1, there was a continuous drumbeat towards the 2000 level for the $SPX. The market peaked out at 1994, which was 3...
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS A NEW HIGH -- HOME IMPROVEMENT AND APPAREL RETAILERS PUSH MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF TO A NEW HIGH -- BIG JUMP IN HOUSING STARTS LIFTS HOMEBUILDERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS NEW HIGH... A positive sign for the stock market and the economy is the ability of the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) to hit a new high this week, as shown in Chart 1. The relative strength line (above chart) had fallen during the first half of...
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SMALL-CAP FINANCIALS ETF RECAPTURES KEY MOVING AVERAGE -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR ATTEMPTS ANOTHER UPSWING -- STEEL ETF SURGES OFF CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT -- WORTHINGTON AND VALE REVERSE NEAR KEY RETRACEMENTS -- RETAIL SPDR CATCHES FIRE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAP FINANCIALS ETF RECAPTURES KEY MOVING AVERAGE... Link for today's video. Yesterday I noted that the Consumer Discretionary SPDR moved back above its short-term support break. The Finance SPDR (XLF) also joined with a surge back above 22.50 over the last few days. As with XLY, the...
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NASDAQ Breaks Out from a Broadening Formation
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Bottom Fisher goes bullish.
* Bonds continue to break to the upside.
* Dollar Index due for a pause.
* Watch $27.50 and $130 on the GDX and the GLD.
US Equities
The Pring Bottom Fisher market indicator (!PRBFISH), shown in the lower window of Chart 1 (and discussed in more detail...
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BIG TECH SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH AS SMALL TECH ATTEMPTS BREAKOUT -- INTERNET ETF BREAKS OUT AS CLOUD COMPUTING ETF CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- YAHOO! CHALLENGES RESISTANCE AS VM WARE BREAKS PENNANT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BIG TECH SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH AS SMALL TECH ATTEMPTS BREAKOUT ... Link for today's video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) continues to lead the major index ETFs with another new high. Not many ETFs are trading at or above their July highs right now. QQQ shows both chart strength...
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UKRAINE TENSION ON FRIDAY STALLS MARKET RALLY -- NASDAQ IS ONLY INDEX TO CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGE -- DAILY MACD LINES FOR S&P 500 IMPROVE -- BUT WEEKLIES HAVEN'T -- BOND YIELD PLUNGE HAS MORE TO DO WITH WEAKNESS IN EUROPE THAN U.S.
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER... The Nasdaq market led this week's stock market rebound (gaining 2.15%). Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week well above its 50-day average, and within striking distance of its July peak. So far, the Nasdaq is the only major U....
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SETTING FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY BOUNCE -- TREASURIES SURGE ON TAME PPI -- GOLD REVERSES COURSE ON GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS -- URANIUM ETF SURGES OFF SUPPORT -- CAMECO LEADS URANIUM ETF HIGHER -- AD LINE AND AD VOLUME LINE REVERSE SHORT-TERM DOWNTRENDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SETTING FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY BOUNCE... Link for today's video. Stocks opened strong and then sold off on reports suggesting an escalation of tensions in Ukraine - at least that was reasoning in the financial media. As of noon, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) was trading...
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$SPX BOUNCES OFF THE PRIMARY TREND ON THE MONTHLY CHARTS -- $SPX 30 WEEK MA HAS BEEN SOLID SUPPORT FOR 20 MONTHS -- CHANGE IN $SPX SLOPE DEFINES THE NEXT TEST -- $SPX TESTS BOTH THE 20 DMA AND 50 DMA FROM BELOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
$SPX BOUNCES OFF THE PRIMARY TREND ON THE MONTHLY CHARTS... With the bounce off last weeks lows, we have moved back above the monthly trend off the 2011-2012 lows on the S&P 500 ($SPX). This level also coincides with some moving averages on shorter time frames. The confluence...
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Oversold Condition Should generate a Short-term US Equity Rally as Part of an Overall Topping Process
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Bottom Fisher indicator may be close to an upside reversal.
* If the rally develops watch the value Line Arithmetic for an indication of its resilience.
* Gold shares may be about to break to the upside.
(Click here for a video version of this article.)
US Equities
Last week the NYSE...
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Oversold Condition Should generate a Short-term US Equity Rally as Part of an Overall Topping Process (Video)
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
(Click here for the written version of this article.)...
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FINANCE SECTOR BOUNCES OFF KEY RETRACEMENT -- GOLD MINERS ETF GETS A BULLISH MOMENTUM SIGNAL -- SMALL-CAP BREADTH IMPROVES -- HIGH-LOW LINE LINES REMAIN NEGATIVE -- USING THE VIX TO TIME A MARKET BOUNCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCE SECTOR BOUNCES OFF KEY RETRACEMENT... Link for today's video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is showing some relative strength early Tuesday with a modest advance. Chart 1 shows XLF hitting the 50% retracement in late July and firming for seven days. This firmness turned to buying pressure the...
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SMALL-CAPS START SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- TREND, SETUP AND TRIGGER FOR IWM -- XRT BREAKS RESISTANCE ZONE -- SOCIAL MEDIA ETF FORMS BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN -- COAL STOCKS TURN INTO MARKET LEADERS -- XME BREAKS RIM RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS SHOW A LITTLE RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Video note: I am on the road today and there is no video for Monday. Video will return on Tuesday when I get back to the office. Even though it is just one week, small-caps are starting to show relative strength by outperforming. Note...
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QQQ REMAINS THE LONE HOLD OUT -- IGN AND XSD HOLD SUPPORT BREAKS -- MARKETVECTORS RETAIL ETF BREAKS DOWN, BUT XRT HOLDS FIRM -- MEDIA AND LEISURE ETFS WEIGH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY -- GOLD IGNORES DOLLAR WITH SURGE ABOVE 1300
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQ REMAINS THE LONE HOLD OUT... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) peaked in early July and fell the last five weeks. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) held out, but succumbed to selling pressure in late July and broke first support. The Nasdaq...
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CONSUMER STAPLES (XLP) BECOMES THE STRONGEST SECTORS ON THE WEEK -- UTILITIES (XLU) CONTINUE TO UNDER PERFORM -- COMPLIMENTING SECTOR PERF CHARTS WITH RELATIVE ROTATION GRAPHS -- THE ENERGY SECTOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKENING QUADRANT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER STAPLES (XLP) BECOMES THE STRONGEST SECTOR OF THE WEEK... Since August 1, the Sector SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) has really surged. It has become the top sector on the week. Notice the box in the bottom right of Chart 1 says 6 days.
On Chart 2, XLP is now...
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THE DOW AND S&P 500 ARE TESTING THEIR 200 AND 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGES RESPECTIVELY -- RUSSELL 2000 AND EUROZONE ISHARES NEAR SUPPORT AT SPRING LOWS -- OVERSOLD HIGH YIELD BOND ETF IS ALSO TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SEE YOU IN SEATTLE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW IS TESTING 200-DAY LINE ... The Dow Industrials have already reached their 200-day moving average. At the same time, the 14-day RSI line (above chart) has reached a short-term oversold reading at 30. This is an important test for the Dow and the rest of the market. Chart 2 shows...
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INTERNET ETF CONSOLIDATES AT MOMENT-OF-TRUTH -- GOOGLE TESTS SUPPORT AS YAHOO STALLS AT RESISTANCE -- A SHIFT IN SENTIMENT TOWARDS UTILITIES -- THREE UTILITIES ETFS BREAK SUPPORT -- OIL BREAKS LONG-TERM SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INTERNET ETF CONSOLIDATES AT MOMENT-OF-TRUTH ... Chart 1 shows the Internet ETF (FDN) advancing to the 62% retracement and consolidating with a triangle. This is a make-or-break level for the ETF. A triangle after an advance is typically a bullish continuation pattern. As such, a break above the upper trend line...
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Equities Continue to Show Long-term Deterioration
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Value Line Arithmetic violates key uptrend line.
* Introducing the Bottom Fisher, but unfortunately not the bottom!
* Stock/bond ratio at the brink.
* 5-year yield between two key converging trend lines.
* Gold/stock ratio on the verge of an upside breakout.
US Equities
The bullish seasonal end of the month period...
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FINANCE SPDR TESTS THE MAY BREAKOUT -- MORGAN STANLEY AND JP MORGAN TESTS KEY SUPPORTS -- THREE IMPROVING INDUSTRY GROUPS ON RRG -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR HEADS FOR MAJOR SUPPORT TEST -- METALS & MINERS SPDR FORMS BIG BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCE SPDR TESTS THE MAY BREAKOUT... Link for today's video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) got slammed last week and broke first support in the 22.50 area. Will it continue lower and drag the market down? Or, will XLF firm and resume the bigger uptrend. Here's...
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GERMANY LEADS REST OF THE WORLD INTO DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BROKEN -- BOND YIELDS FALL AT WEEK'S END -- RISING DOLLAR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO COMMODITY SELLOFF -- % NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 50 AND 200-DAY AVERAGES PLUNGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GERMAN DAX FALLS BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... My last two messages warned that weakness in the Eurozone threatened the global rally in stocks, including the U.S. Not surprisingly, this week's plunge in Europe finally had a negative impact on most other developed markets. Chart 1 shows EMU iShares...
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USING RSI TO TIME A BOUNCE IN THE S&P 500 -- KEY LEVELS FOR SMALL AND MID-CAP ETFS -- AUGUST SEASONAL PATTERNS ARE NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS -- SEASONAL PATTERNS DO FAVOR A STOCK ALTERNATIVE THOUGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
USING RSI TO TIME A BOUNCE IN THE S&P 500... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 finally came under selling pressure to join small-caps and mid-caps with a pullback. The S&P 500 was down 2% on Thursday, which was the sharpest...
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Can a Weakening Stock Market take Advantage of the Bullish End-of-the-month Seasonal? (video)
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Click here for the printed version of this article....
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THE DOW ENDS THE MONTH ON A WEAK NOTE -- $SPX FALLS STRAIGHT THROUGH ITS 50 DMA -- THE RUSSELL 2000 ($RUT) TOUCHES THE 200 DMA AGAIN -- RUSSELL 2000 ($RUT) SHOWS SIMILARITIES TO 2011 -- TECH NAMES FAIL TO MAKE PROGRESS AFTER EARNINGS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THE DOW ENDS THE MONTH ON A WEAK NOTE... The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) tested the 50 DMA yesterday on Chart 1. Today it failed to hold above it and spent all day below the commonly watched average and closed on the low of the day, week and month....
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Can a Weakening Stock Market Take Advantage of the Bullish End-of-the-month Seasonal?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Breadth continues to deteriorate following Special K sell signal for the NYSE Composite.
* Bonds are likely to violate an important up trendline.
* Gold and commodities may be about to reverse their recent declines.
(Click here for the video version of this article.)
US Equities
The US equity market has not...
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EUZOZONE CURRENCY AND STOCKS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE -- GERMAN ISHARES SLIP BELOW 200-DAY LINE -- RECORD LOW BOND YIELDS IN EUROPE ARE PULLING TREASURY YIELDS LOWER -- UPTURN IN DOLLAR SHOULD LIMIT GAINS IN GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EUROZONE REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE... The Eurozone has been under a lot of pressure lately as reflected in the falling Euro and stock prices. That downside pressure may increase with this week's announcement of more sanctions imposed on Russia. Eurozone countries are the most vulnerable to growing tensions in...
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SECTORS REFLECT MIXED MARKET -- XLI AND XLY FORM CORRECTIVE PATTERNS -- BROKER-DEALER INDEX EXCEEDS PRIOR HIGH -- SCHWAB LEADS ETRADE AND TD AMERITRADE -- A BIG WEEK FOR TREASURY BONDS AND YIELDS -- 10-YR TREASURY YIELD STALLS NEAR OCTOBER LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTORS REFLECT MIXED MARKET... Link for today's video. The stock market as a whole has been quite mixed over the past month. Note that the S&P 500 SPDR (+1%) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (+3.3%) are up month-to-date, but the Russell 2000 iShares (-3.5%) and...
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RETAIL ETFS TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS -- COAL AND STRATEGIC METALS FOLLOW CHINESE STOCKS HIGHER -- MAJORITY OF SMALL AND MID CAPS ARE BELOW THEIR 50-DAY EMAS -- BUT THE MAJORITY OF LARGE CAPS ARE ABOVE THEIR 50-EMAS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RETAIL ETFS TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS... Link for today's video. The Retail SPDR (XRT) and the MarketVectors Retail ETF (RTH) are still in uptrends, but both are testing important support levels that hold the key to these uptrends. Chartists should watch these two closely because breakdowns would be...
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Birth of the Cool: A New Bull Market for Chinese Equities?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Shanghai breaks bear market trendline and takes the FXI with it.
* Long-term relative action suggests the FXI is no longer a world laggard, but a leader instead.
* Shanghai correlation with commodities argues for higher commodity prices in general.
* Chinese materials, real estate and energy ETF’s break to the upside....
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SMALL CAP/ LARGE CAP DIVERGENCE IS WORST IN THREE YEARS -- HIGH YIELD BOND WEAKNESS MAY ALSO BE CAUTION SIGNAL FOR STOCKS -- CHINA LEADS EMERGING MARKET BREAKOUT WHICH BOOSTS BASE METALS -- EUROZONE WEAKENS ON GLOBAL TENSIONS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAP DIVERGENCE IS TROUBLING... Although the U.S. stock market has shown impressive resilience over the past few months, there are some troubling signs beneath the surface. One is the negative divergence between small caps and large caps. Since March 5, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index...
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LARGE-CAPS DO THEIR PART -- HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH IN SMALL AND MID CAPS -- BROAD MARKET HIGH-LOW LINE CONTINUES HIGHER -- SMALL-CAP HIGH-LOW INDICATOR REMAINS IN CORRECTIVE MODE -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF BREAKS DOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LARGE-CAPS CONTINUE TO DO THEIR PART... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) continued its uptrend with a move above the upper trend line of a pennant and a new high this week. Technically, a pennant within an uptrend is a bullish continuation pattern...
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$SPX MAKES ANOTHER NEW CLOSING HIGH -- $COMPQ TESTS AT NEW HIGHS EARLY IN TRADE -- $COMPQ APPROACHES THE HIGHEST MONTHLY CLOSE OF THE YEAR 2000 -- $INDU TRADES SIDEWAYS THROUGH EARNINGS -- WILSHIRE 5000 ($WLSH) SHOWS BROAD SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
$SPX MAKES ANOTHER NEW CLOSING HIGH ... With the S&P 500 ($SPX) hitting new highs (1991) again today, the index is only 27 points from the 2014 level in the year 2014. That is a little more than 1% from today's high. On Chart 1 we can...
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Homebuilders may be on the Verge of a Major Breakdown
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* General correction in US equities not over despite a higher S&P.
* Dollar Index breaks to the upside.
* Gold likely to experience more base building before moving higher.
* CRB meets downside objective, now we will see how it can handle a rally.
US Equities
Last week I pointed out...
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THREE STYLES AND THREE DEGREES OF CORRECTION -- USING THE RAFF CHANNEL TO DEFINE A MOVE -- SOLAR ENERGY ETF TESTS TWO KEY MOVING AVERAGES -- SUNPOWER AND SOLAR CITY LEAD THE GROUP -- URANIUM ETF SURGES OFF SUPPORT -- CAMECO AND DENISON LEAD URANIUM STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THREE STYLES AND THREE DEGREES OF CORRECTION... Link for today's video. A style index or ETF is one that groups stocks by market cap. This is sometimes taken further by subdividing these groupings into value and growth components. For example, we have the S&P 500 (large-cap)...
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STOCKS END THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE -- BUT SMALL CAPS STILL LAG -- BIOTECH AND INTERNET STOCKS LEAD FRIDAY'S BOUNCE -- GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK LEAD INTERNET GROUP HIGHER -- GOLD MINERS ARE DOING BETTER THAN BULLION -- SILVER STOCKS ARE EVEN STRONGER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. STOCK INDEXES END WEEK HIGHER... A strong rebound on Friday helped U.S. large cap stock indexes end the week higher. That kept their uptrends intact. The week's strongest gainers were the Dow Industrials (+0.92%). Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ending the week above...
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KEY BREADTH INDICATOR STILL BULLISH -- REVISITING THE 2007 TOP -- NO MAJOR TOPPING PATTERN FOR IWV -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES FAILS TO HOLD SUPPORT -- REGIONAL BANK ETF BREAKS DOWN -- AROON SIGNAL TRIGGERS IN BIOTECH ISHARES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
KEY BREADTH INDICATOR STILL BULLISH ... Link for today's video. While there are certainly a few negatives regarding the stock market, the bulk of the evidence remains bullish. Among the negatives, the Russell 2000 iShares is down around 7% from its early July high and shows relative weakness since...
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE MAKES NEW HIGH -- $SPX TRADES ON HIGHER THAN AVERAGE VOLUME -- $INDU:$RUT RATIO ACCELERATES WITH A PACE UNMATCHED SINCE QE3 STARTED -- VALUE LINE INDEX $VLE STARTS TO UNDER PERFORM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE MAKES NEW HIGH... The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) broke out to new highs on Thursday morning in Chart 1. At the close on Wednesday, the Dow had pushed and closed above 17100. This morning, we made an intraday high of 17151 before selling off to...
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New Highs in the Dow Don't Translate Elsewhere
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Less than 50% of NASDAQ stocks are above their 200-day MA’s.
* Bond market confidence ratio on the verge of a major breakdown.
* US Dollar Index could be about to break to the upside.
Click here for video version
US Equities
The Dow touched an all-time high this week but...
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COMMODITY PRICES TAKE A DIVE -- AGRICULTURAL MARKETS ARE MAIN REASON WHY -- INDUSTRIAL METALS REMAIN FIRM -- A BOUNCING DOLLAR MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO PROFIT-TAKING IN PRECIOUS METALS -- MOST OF THE DOLLAR STRENGTH IS COMING FROM A WEAK EURO
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITIES TAKE A SLIDE... Commodities were the strongest asset class during the first half of the year. That's no longer the case. Chart 1 shows the DB Commodities Tracking ETF (DBC) tumbling since mid-June to the lowest level in five months. It has also fallen below its 200-day...
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TIMBER ETF FORMS CLASSIC CORRECTIVE PATTERN -- AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- RETAIL SPDR PULLS BACK FROM NEW HIGH -- MARKETVECTORS RETAIL ETF STALLS ABOVE BREAKOUT -- DEATH-CROSS HANGS OVER THE COAL ETF
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TIMBER ETF FORMS CLASSIC CORRECTIVE PATTERN ... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Timber ETF (CUT) with a corrective wedge taking shape over the last few weeks. Overall, the ETF hit a new high in early March and then fell sharply into mid April. With the rebound...
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