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CONSUMER STAPLES AND UTILITIES SPDRS SURGE TO NEW HIGHS -- OIL ETFS BREAK PENNANT LINES -- XOP AND XES FOLLOW OIL LOWER -- INITIAL CLAIMS AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FAVOR LESS QE -- TIP SHOWS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES DECREASING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER STAPLES AND UTILITIES SPDRS SURGE TO NEW HIGHS... Link for today's video. The defensive sectors took the lead on Monday with the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and the Utilities SPDR (XLU) hitting fresh 52-week highs. Relative strength and upside leadership in these two sectors shows a...
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THE KEY TO THE UPSWING IN IWM -- RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL DEMO -- BREADTH THRUST IS BULLISH UNTIL IT ISN'T -- ELEMENTS OF RISK AVERSION REMAIN -- MEDICAL DEVICES ETF CHALLENGES PRIOR HIGHS -- OIL AND GASOLINE CONSOLIDATE WITHIN DOWNTRENDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THE KEY TO THE UPSWING IN IWM (RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL DEMO)... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) with Raff Regression Channels marking the swings over the last six months. The overall trend is down because the ETF formed a lower high in...
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MARKET RALLY CONTINUES -- RAILS LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- MMM LEADS INDUSTRIAL SPDR ABOVE 50-DAY LINE -- SMALL CAPS ALSO IMPROVE -- DIVIDEND PAYERS ATTRACT BUYERS ON FALLING BOND YIELDS -- VIX PLUNGES BACK BELOW 20 -- OVERSOLD FOREIGN SHARES REBOUND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RAILS LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER ... Not only are stocks extending their recent rally with a strong day, they're being led higher by economically-sensitive groups like transports. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Jones Transportation Average trading 2% higher today and trading above its 50-day...
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Bearish Candle Patterns Indicate a Test of Last Week's Lows are Likely
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Short-term momentum is still oversold, so a rally is probable once the expected test is over.
* Any rally likely to be part of an overall topping out process.
* Europe experiences primary trend sell signal.
* Japanese and Asian Ex Japan ETF’s look vulnerable from a long-term aspect.
This...
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MEASURING RISK APPETITE WITH MICRO-CAPS -- RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES RE-CAPTURES ONE BREAK -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND INDUSTRIALS SECTORS LEAD THE REBOUND -- ITB FORMS A BIG REVERSAL ON BIG VOLUME -- OIL SERVICE ETF FIRMS AFTER SELLING CLIMAX
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MEASURING MICRO-CAPS FOR RISK APPETITE... Link for today's video. The Russell Micro-Cap iShares (IWC) is an important ETF to watch because it represents the appetite for the riskiest stocks in the market. Small-cap stocks are deemed riskier than large-caps and micro-cap stocks are...
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SPY GETS STUCK BETWEEN A GAP AND A HARD PLACE -- FALLING YIELD CURVE WEIGHS ON REGIONAL BANKS -- RETAILER SPDR STRUGGLES TO STAY POSITIVE -- TWO DISCOUNTERS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- WATCHING MACY'S AND NORDSTROM FOR CLUES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY GETS STUCK BETWEEN A GAP AND A HARD PLACE... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) forging a short-term reversal last week. Notice how the ETF gapped below 187 on Wednesday, stalled for two days and then gapped above...
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CRB INDEX TESTS MAJOR SUPPORT -- BOND SURGE SHOWS EXHAUSTION -- JUMP IN HIGH YIELD BONDS IS ENCOURAGING -- S&P 500 BOUNCES FROM OVERSOLD CONDITION -- BUT MORE TESTING MAY BE NEEDED -- SMALL CAP RALLY FADES ON FRIDAY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CRB INDEX IS TESTING MAJOR SUPPORT... I'm starting today's message with a look at commodity prices because they've been the focus of a lot of attention of late. That's because falling commodity prices are deflationary in nature, which is something central bankers...
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S&P 500 HITS LONG VOLUME-BY-PRICE BAR -- S&P MIDCAP 400 FULFILLS DOUBLE TOP TARGET -- SMALL-CAP PRICE RELATIVE BOUNCES -- SECTOR ROTATIONS FAVOR DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- TWO SMALL-CAP SECTORS TO WATCH -- PLUNGE IN SHORT-TERM RATES SHOWS FLIGHT TO SAFETY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 HITS LONG VOLUME-BY-PRICE BAR... On an intraday basis, the S&P 500 fell around 10% from its summer high to the mid October low. Even though a 10% decline may seem drastic, it still pales relative to the 50% advance from the November...
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That Was Probably It....For The Time Being
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Short-term indicators continue to decline, but Wednesday’s price action may cause them to go bullish.
* Small caps starting to emerge as leaders on the upside (At least for the short-term).
* Quality bonds experience probable upside blow-off and high yield exhaustion on the downside .
Earlier in the...
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FOREIGN WEAKNESS FINALLY HITS U.S. STOCKS -- RISING VIX IS AT THREE-YEAR HIGH AND MAY HAVE FURTHER TO GO -- S&P 500 MAY RETEST ITS FEBRUARY LOW -- FOUR YEAR LOW IN BRENT CRUDE PULLS GERMAN BOND YIELD TO NEW RECORD LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FOREIGN WEAKNESS FINALLY HITS THE U.S.... It took awhile for it to happen, but tumbling foreign markets have finally pulled the U.S. market into a downside correction. The three lines in Chart 1 tell the story. The blue line shows EAFE iShares (EFA) peaking at the start of...
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Shanghai Reverses Four -year Bear Market in Relative Action
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Global equities experience long term technical damage.
* But short-term indicators are close to signaling a tradable rally.
* Bond market still looks strong.
* Gold experiences marginal upside breakout against stocks.
US Equities
Last week I described how some serious long-term technical damage had been done to global equities but...
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S&P 500 BREAKS KEY MOVING AVERAGE -- GOOGLE BREAKS DOWN AS APPLE HOLDS STRONG -- PLAYING THE SWINGS IN KRE AND IWC -- DECEMBER NATURAL GAS TESTS KEY LEVEL -- ENERGY-RELATED ETFS ARE THE MOST OVERSOLD -- COFFEE ETF CHALLENGES PRIOR HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 BREAKS KEY MOVING AVERAGE ... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 is not in uncharted territory, but it is in territory we have not seen in some time. Chart 1 shows the index breaking below its 200-day moving average, breaking its...
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FOUR WAYS TO MEASURE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE -- UTILITIES SECTOR MAINTAINS WEDGE BREAKOUT -- SMALL FINANCIALS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- FINDING SECTORS THAT POINT NORTHEAST -- AVOIDING SECTORS THAT POINT SOUTHWEST
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPX TESTS A KEY MOVING AVERAGE... Link for today's video. Selling pressure and volatility have dominated October, but some sectors and industry groups are holding up better than others. How can we find the strong groups and avoid the weak? The next few charts will show four methods...
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MARKETS REMAIN IN RISK-OFF MODE -- S&P 500 MOVES TOWARDS SUPPORT -- MID-CAPS BREAK SUPPORT -- SMALL-CAPS CONTINUE TO LAG -- INDUSTRIALS SPDR BREAKS KEY LEVEL -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR TESTS KEY LEVEL -- TECH AND FINANCE SPDRS ARE HOLDING UP THE BEST
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKETS REMAIN IN RISK-OFF MODE... Link for today's video. The markets continue to shun risk and embrace safety, which means the markets are in risk-off mode. There are several metrics to we can use for this assessment. First, small-caps have broken down and are underperforming...
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Stocks Break Down Against Bonds In A Major Way
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Oversold short term condition could trigger a bounce... but remember this is October!
* Five year yield experiences false upside breakout. That signals lower yields
* Gold bounces from a must hold support level.
(Click here for the Video Version of this article.)
US Equities
In the last week some serious long-...
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Stocks Break down Against Bonds in a Major Way - Video Version
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Oversold short term condition could trigger a bounce... but remember this is October!
* Five year yield experiences false upside breakout. That signals lower yields.
* Gold bounces from a must hold support level.
Click here for the Print Version
Good luck and good charting,
Martin Pring...
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QQQ AND SPY TEST THEIR GAPS -- SMALL AND MICRO CAP ETFS FILL THEIR GAPS -- SECTOR PERFORMANCE REFLECTS DEFENSIVE MARKET -- DOLLAR AND TREASURIES ARE IN RISK OFF MODE -- 20+ YR T-BOND ETF CHALLENGES AUGUST HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQ AND SPY TEST THEIR GAPS ... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) forged intraday reversals last Thursday and followed up with gaps on Friday, but the bulls are getting cold feet already because both fell back into their...
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SEASONAL PATTERNS START TO GET INTERESTING -- LOOKING AT SMALL-CAP PERFORMANCE FOR YEAREND -- SEASONAL PATTERNS STAND OUT FOR THREE SECTORS -- NATURAL GAS TESTS SUPPORT AGAIN -- AIRLINE INDEX BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- DELTA AND UNITED LEAD AIRLINES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SEASONAL PATTERNS START TO GET INTERESTING... Link for today's video. StockCharts users can analyze seasonal patterns using the Seasonality Tool. This tool creates a histogram chart showing the percentage of times a security gained and the average gain/loss overall. Before getting into the current seasonal patterns, note...
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S&P 500 MAINTAINS ITS LONG-TERM UPTREND -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR ETFS TESTS KEY LEVEL -- MACY'S, NORDSTROM AND TJX LEAD RETAILERS HIGHER -- WHEN IS OVERSOLD REALLY OVERSOLD? -- USING PPO AND RSI FOR TO DEFINE OVERSOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 MAINTAINS ITS LONG-TERM UPTREND... Link for today's video. Even though the S&P Small-Cap 600 and S&P MidCap 400 are underperforming and have stalled for several months, the S&P 500 remains in a clear uptrend and over...
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SMALL CAPS TEST NECKLINE OF POSSIBLE H&S TOP -- MIDCAP INDEX IS IN DANGER OF BREAKING AUGUST LOW -- SO IS THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX -- THE U.S. IS BEING LED LOWER BY FOREIGN SHARES -- THE DOLLAR RALLY MAY BE JUST STARTING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAP HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP?... A debate is going on within the technical community as to whether or not the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is in danger of completing a "head and shoulders top". A case can certainly made for it, although it would be an...
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SMALL CAPS BREAK SUPPORT -- MIDCAPS MAY BE NEXT -- DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK 50-DAY AVERAGES -- AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS LOWER AS UTILITIES RALLY WITH BONDS -- EMERGING BONDS FALL ON RISING DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAPS FALL BELOW AUGUST LOW -- MIDCAPS MAY BE NEXT... Arthur Hill and myself have been warning of a potential breakdown in smaller stocks, and the potential damage that could do to the rest of the stock market. That situation has gotten even worse. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000...
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Silver Breaks to the Downside in a Big Way
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Negative divergences in the equity market continue to build.
* The rest of the world (EFA) completes a head and shoulders top.
* Credit spreads continue to deteriorate.
* Some commodity indexes break down in a major way, others hold fast.
US Equities
In our last issue my basic conclusion on equities was...
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UTILITIES SECTOR RETURNS TO THE LEADERBOARD -- APPLE, AT&T AND VERIZON HOLD STRONG -- SCANNING FOR RELATIVE STRENGTH -- BOEING, BERRY, CALLIDUS AND VEECO MAKE THE CUT -- WHEN TO SELL OR EXIT A POSITION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
UTILITIES SECTOR RETURNS TO THE LEADERBOARD... Link for today's video. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is leading the market over the last two days and its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) is improving. Chart 1 shows XLU trading flat since April as it oscillated around the 42 level for several...
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DIA AND QQQ HOLD UP THE BEST -- RUSSELL 2000 VALUE UNDERPERFORMS GROWTH -- BIG BANKS LEAD, BUT REGIONAL BANKS LAG -- BIOTECHS REFUSE TO BUCKLE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DIA AND QQQ HOLD UP THE BEST... Link for today's video. Most of the major index ETFs broke below their mid September lows with sharp declines last week, but the Dow Diamonds (DIA) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) held these lows and show relative strength. The Dow...
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HOW FAR CAN THE S&P 500 CORRECT? -- NOTHING BULLISH ON SMALL-CAP CHART -- MID-CAPS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE -- 20+ YR T-BOND ETF BOUNCES OF KEY RETRACEMENT -- COMPARING THE 2011 DOLLAR SHOCK WITH 2014 (PERFCHART DEMO) -- OIL FIRMS WITHIN DOWNTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HOW FAR CAN THE S&P 500 CORRECT?... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 is down less than 3% from its all time high and still in a long-term uptrend. Even though this week's decline could extend, it would take a...
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GLOBAL STOCKS SELL OFF IN RISING VOLUME -- A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BROKEN -- HIGH YIELD BOND ETF BREAKS 200-DAY LINE -- FOREIGN STOCKS FALL AS WELL -- A RISING DOLLAR IS HURTING EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES AND STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ AND S&P 500 BREAK 50-DAY LINES... Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 SPDRS closing below its 50-day line today in heavy trading. That's a negative combination. Chart 2 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index doing the same. Their daily MACD lines remain...
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Global Equities and Some US Averages are Just Above Critical Support
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Small cap stocks on the verge of a major breakdown.
* Gold shares violate important up trend line.
* Dollar Index due for a correction within a primary bull market.
Click here for the video version.
For the last few weeks I have been pointing out the gradually deteriorating technical position but...
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Global Equities and Some US Averages are Just Above Critical Support - Video Version
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
This is the video version of the Market Roundup.
* Small cap stocks on the verge of a major breakdown.
* Gold shares violate important up trend line.
* Dollar Index due for a correction within a primary bull market.
Click here for the print version.
Good Luck and good charting,
Martin Pring...
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FOREIGN STOCK ETFS ARE TESTING MAJOR OVERHEAD RESISTANCE BARRIERS WHICH COULD THREATEN GLOBAL RALLY -- THE % NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE HAS FALLEN TO 2014 LOW -- SMALL CAP RELATIVE WEAKNESS IS WORST IN THREE YEARS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THE STOCK RALLY IS GETTING NARROWER... Arthur Hill wrote about the negative divergence between small and micap stocks relative to large cap stocks. Let's put that in some perspective. Chart 1 shows that the three stock categories have been rising together since the 2009 bottom (as they usually...
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SCANNING FOR PULLBACKS WITHIN AN UPTREND (LIVE DEMO) -- BIOGEN IDEC BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- CVR REFINING FIRMS IN FIBONACCI CLUSTER ZONE -- QLYS AND MON ALSO MAKE THE SCAN CUT -- FRENCH, GERMAN AND UK STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SCANNING FOR PULLBACKS WITHIN AN UPTREND... Link for today's video. As noted on Monday, stocks have weakened this month with small-caps leading the way lower. However, with most of the major indices hitting new highs recently, I still classify these declines as corrections within a bigger uptrend....
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SMALL-CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM -- MID-CAPS AND MICRO-CAPS ALSO LAG LARGE-CAPS -- THREE MOMENTUM ETFS BREAK LOWER BOLLINGER BANDS -- WATCHING THE BREAKOUTS IN FINANCE AND INDUSTRIALS -- STEEL STOCKS LEAD METALS AND MINING ETF LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM... Link for today's video. September continues to be a rough month for mid-caps, small-caps, micro-caps and some of the high-beta groups. Overall, we have a bifurcated market with relative strength in large-caps and relative weakness in the other...
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SETTING A YEAREND TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 -- SMALL AND MID-CAP INDICES HOLD THEIR CHANNELS -- SEASONAL EVIDENCE FOR THE JANUARY EFFECT -- NAT GAS CONSOLIDATES WITHIN DOWNTREND -- FIRSTTRUST NATURAL GAS ETF HITS SUPPORT ZONE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SETTING A YEAREND TARGET FOR THE S&P 500... Link for today's video. The S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 are all in uptrends, and the S&P 500 remains the clear leader. Even though one...
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LIFE INSURERS AND INVESTMENT SERVICE STOCKS BENEFIT FROM RISING BOND YIELDS -- PRUDENTIAL AND GOLDMAN SACHS ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- THE WISDOM TREE JAPAN HEDGED ETF ACHIEVES NEW RECOVERY HIGH ON PLUNGING YEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING RATES HELP INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS... Financial stocks are starting to show upside leadership at the same time that bond yields are starting to rise. Banks usually benefit from rising bond yields because they can charge higher rates for their loans. Two other financial groups have actually done better than banks...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS HIT NEW HIGHS -- BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER -- LENNAR LEADS BIG BOUNCE IN HOMEBUILDERS -- RATE BOUNCE AFTER FED MEETING PUSHES DOLLAR HIGHER AND GOLD LOWER -- RISING SHORT-TERM RATES CAN BE GOOD FOR STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW INDUSTRIALS JOIN TRANSPORTS IN NEW HIGHS... Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports hitting another record high today, and remaining the strongest of the three Dow averages. Today's rally was led by rails and delivery services. Fedex gained 3.5% to lead the latter group higher. Chart 2...
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Five Year Yield Experiences Major Upside Breakout
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* - Brokers experience new bull market closing high.
* - NYSE stocks above their 200-day MA’s continue to shrink.
* - Canadian dollar experiences false break to the downside.
* - Commodities break to the downside. Could it be a whipsaw?
US Equities
Tuesday’s strong equity action could well be a signal that other...
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DOW AND S&P 100 HOLD UP THE BEST -- INDUSTRIAL SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- BANDWIDTH INDICATOR HITS NEW LOW FOR XLI -- 3M AND GENERAL ELECTRIC -- AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF PACES INDUSTRIALS -- ALLIANT TECH AND ROCKWELL COLLINS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW AND S&P 100 HOLD UP THE BEST... Link for today's video. After a big advance in August, stocks succumbed to some selling pressure in September. This selling pressure, however, has not been uniformly spread throughout the stock market. As noted in Monday's Market...
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SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER -- INTERNET ETF LEADS TECH SECTOR LOWER -- GOOGLE AND AMAZON SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- BIOTECHS AND SOLAR STOCKS LEAD MOMENTUM NAMES LOWER -- FINANCE SECTOR MOVES INTO SCTR TOP THREE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER ... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) are showing relative weakness in September and leading the current correction. There may be some debate on the term "correction" though. The S&...
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SWEDISH KRONA IS EUROPE'S WEAKEST CURRENCY -- FALLING COMMODITIES ALSO HURT AUSSIE AND CANADIAN DOLLARS -- TREASURY YIELDS ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED TO LOWER GERMAN YIELDS -- TREASURY YIELD JUMPS TO TWO-MONTH HIGH -- BOND ETFS HAVE WORST WEEK IN A YEAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE CURRENCY WEAKNESS... My mid-week message on the broadbased nature of the U.S. dollar rally showed a number of falling currencies, including the Euro, the Swiss franc, the British Pound, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian Dollar. Chart 1 adds two more. The blue line shows the Swedish...
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MAJOR INDICES STILL CONSOLIDATING WITHIN UPTRENDS -- FINANCE AND TECH SECTORS HOLD NEAR HIGHS -- BANK OF AMERICA AND TYCO BREAK OUT -- RISING 10-YR BOOSTS BANKS AND HURTS REITS -- COPPER ETF REVERSES UPSWING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NIKKEI HITS SEVEN MONTH HIGH... Link for today's video. Despite some stalling over the last few weeks, the major stock indices remain in long-term uptrends. The S&P 500, S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index and the S&P 1500 all hit new highs...
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SHORT-TERM RATES REMAIN BELOW LONG-TERM RATES -- BUT THE GAP IS NARROWING -- THAT'S BEEN GOOD FOR STOCKS IN THE PAST -- RISING SHORT-TERM RATES ARE HELPING THE DOLLAR -- BUT ARE BEARISH FOR GOLD -- FALLING BULLION IS WEIGHING ON GOLD MINERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT YIELD CURVE... My Wednesday message included a paragraph on the yield curve. One of the charts, however, overlaid the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields on the same chart. I was trying to show that short-term rates were rising, while long-term yields...
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