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$SPX MAKES ANOTHER NEW CLOSING HIGH -- $COMPQ TESTS AT NEW HIGHS EARLY IN TRADE -- $COMPQ APPROACHES THE HIGHEST MONTHLY CLOSE OF THE YEAR 2000 -- $INDU TRADES SIDEWAYS THROUGH EARNINGS -- WILSHIRE 5000 ($WLSH) SHOWS BROAD SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
$SPX MAKES ANOTHER NEW CLOSING HIGH ... With the S&P 500 ($SPX) hitting new highs (1991) again today, the index is only 27 points from the 2014 level in the year 2014. That is a little more than 1% from today's high. On Chart 1 we can...
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Homebuilders may be on the Verge of a Major Breakdown
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* General correction in US equities not over despite a higher S&P.
* Dollar Index breaks to the upside.
* Gold likely to experience more base building before moving higher.
* CRB meets downside objective, now we will see how it can handle a rally.
US Equities
Last week I pointed out...
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THREE STYLES AND THREE DEGREES OF CORRECTION -- USING THE RAFF CHANNEL TO DEFINE A MOVE -- SOLAR ENERGY ETF TESTS TWO KEY MOVING AVERAGES -- SUNPOWER AND SOLAR CITY LEAD THE GROUP -- URANIUM ETF SURGES OFF SUPPORT -- CAMECO AND DENISON LEAD URANIUM STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THREE STYLES AND THREE DEGREES OF CORRECTION... Link for today's video. A style index or ETF is one that groups stocks by market cap. This is sometimes taken further by subdividing these groupings into value and growth components. For example, we have the S&P 500 (large-cap)...
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STOCKS END THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE -- BUT SMALL CAPS STILL LAG -- BIOTECH AND INTERNET STOCKS LEAD FRIDAY'S BOUNCE -- GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK LEAD INTERNET GROUP HIGHER -- GOLD MINERS ARE DOING BETTER THAN BULLION -- SILVER STOCKS ARE EVEN STRONGER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. STOCK INDEXES END WEEK HIGHER... A strong rebound on Friday helped U.S. large cap stock indexes end the week higher. That kept their uptrends intact. The week's strongest gainers were the Dow Industrials (+0.92%). Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ending the week above...
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KEY BREADTH INDICATOR STILL BULLISH -- REVISITING THE 2007 TOP -- NO MAJOR TOPPING PATTERN FOR IWV -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES FAILS TO HOLD SUPPORT -- REGIONAL BANK ETF BREAKS DOWN -- AROON SIGNAL TRIGGERS IN BIOTECH ISHARES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
KEY BREADTH INDICATOR STILL BULLISH ... Link for today's video. While there are certainly a few negatives regarding the stock market, the bulk of the evidence remains bullish. Among the negatives, the Russell 2000 iShares is down around 7% from its early July high and shows relative weakness since...
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE MAKES NEW HIGH -- $SPX TRADES ON HIGHER THAN AVERAGE VOLUME -- $INDU:$RUT RATIO ACCELERATES WITH A PACE UNMATCHED SINCE QE3 STARTED -- VALUE LINE INDEX $VLE STARTS TO UNDER PERFORM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE MAKES NEW HIGH... The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) broke out to new highs on Thursday morning in Chart 1. At the close on Wednesday, the Dow had pushed and closed above 17100. This morning, we made an intraday high of 17151 before selling off to...
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New Highs in the Dow Don't Translate Elsewhere
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Less than 50% of NASDAQ stocks are above their 200-day MA’s.
* Bond market confidence ratio on the verge of a major breakdown.
* US Dollar Index could be about to break to the upside.
Click here for video version
US Equities
The Dow touched an all-time high this week but...
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COMMODITY PRICES TAKE A DIVE -- AGRICULTURAL MARKETS ARE MAIN REASON WHY -- INDUSTRIAL METALS REMAIN FIRM -- A BOUNCING DOLLAR MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO PROFIT-TAKING IN PRECIOUS METALS -- MOST OF THE DOLLAR STRENGTH IS COMING FROM A WEAK EURO
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITIES TAKE A SLIDE... Commodities were the strongest asset class during the first half of the year. That's no longer the case. Chart 1 shows the DB Commodities Tracking ETF (DBC) tumbling since mid-June to the lowest level in five months. It has also fallen below its 200-day...
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TIMBER ETF FORMS CLASSIC CORRECTIVE PATTERN -- AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- RETAIL SPDR PULLS BACK FROM NEW HIGH -- MARKETVECTORS RETAIL ETF STALLS ABOVE BREAKOUT -- DEATH-CROSS HANGS OVER THE COAL ETF
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TIMBER ETF FORMS CLASSIC CORRECTIVE PATTERN ... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Timber ETF (CUT) with a corrective wedge taking shape over the last few weeks. Overall, the ETF hit a new high in early March and then fell sharply into mid April. With the rebound...
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SELLING PRESSURE IS STILL QUITE LIMITED -- RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES NEARS FIRST SUPPORT ZONE -- FINANCE SPDR BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR FAILS AT FLAG, BUT HOLDS SUPPORT -- YIELD SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SELLING PRESSURE IS STILL QUITE LIMITED... Link for today's video. Last week was rough for small-caps and micro-caps as they bore the brunt of selling pressure. There are concerns with relative weakness in small-caps and July-August seasonal patterns, but recent selling pressure was lopsided and confined to a...
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Sectors and Industry Groups to Avoid or Embrace
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Fading Sectors/Industries: Financial, Homebuilders, Consumer, Biotech, Small Cap, Industrial
* Emerging Sectors/Industries: Energy, Mines, Basic Materials, Gold Miners
Sector rotation is a continual process, but recently several old favorites have started to lose favor, and several previously discarded ones are coming to the fore. I am going to run...
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HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TESTS KEY SUPPORT -- DJ AIRLINE INDEX BOUNCES FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY -- THE KEY LEVEL TO WATCH ON THE GOLD BREAKOUT -- EURO TESTS A MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE -- BANDWIDTH HITS 52-WEEK LOW FOR YEN INDEX -- NIKKEI 225 IGNORES A FIRM YEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TESTS KEY SUPPORT... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Home Construction iShares (ITB) breaking out with a move in late May and early June, but then falling back to support this week. The sharpness of this week's decline is a concern...
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MARKETS OPEN DOWN 1% THEN RALLY OFF SUPPORT -- $RUT LEADS TO THE DOWNSIDE AGAIN -- C, GS, JPM STALL AT 40 WMA -- BROKER DEALER INDEX IS WEAKENING AS WELL -- THE BANKING ETF SHOWS MORE WEAKNESS FOR THE BANKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKETS OPEN DOWN 1% THEN RALLY OFF SUPPORT.... The S&P500 ($SPX) opened 1% lower in the first few minutes this morning and rallied throughout the day. It bounced off the support provided by the June 9 high and the June 26th low. From Chart 1 we can see...
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Gold Shares Break to the Upside
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Brokers are leading the market lower
* NASDAQ Composite leaves a lot to be desired
* The balance of evidence suggests lower near-term bond prices
* Commodities complete a short-term top
US Equities
The correction we have been talking about in the last couple of Market Roundups is likely to continue.
As Art...
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BRAZIL STOCKS BOUNCE BACK FROM BIG SOCCER LOSS -- METAL STOCKS CONTINUE TO SHINE -- FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD BREAKS OUT -- ALCOA HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH -- NEWMONT MINING HELPS LEAD GOLD SHARES HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BRAZIL IS GAINING ON GERMANY ... No, that's not a comment on a soccer game. It's a comment on the fact that Brazil stocks are doing better than Germany's this year (unlike their soccer team). That's a reversal of trends seen since 2011....
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RUSSELL 2000 PLUNGES FROM RANGE RESISTANCE -- INTERNET ETF REVERSES AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- AMAZON TESTS SUPPORT AS FACEBOOK AND LINKEDIN BREAK DOWN -- DOG DAYS OF SUMMER REFLECTED IN SEASONALITY CHART -- FIRST SUPPORTS TO WATCH FOR S&P 500
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RUSSELL 2000 PLUNGES FROM RANGE RESISTANCE... Link for today's video. Small-caps are leading the market lower with sharp declines the last two days. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 surging to its March high last week, stalling for a couple days and felling over 3% the last few...
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STOCKS MOVE INTO OFFENSIVE MODE -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECH JOIN THE LEADERSHIP CIRCLE -- SPY ZEROS IN ON 200 AS S&P 500 TARGETS 2000 -- INFLATION IS EDGING HIGHER, BUT STILL CONTAINED -- TREASURY BOND ETFS BACK OFF LONG-TERM RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS MOVE INTO OFFENSIVE MODE... Link for today's video. The stock market stepped it up another gear with big gains and new highs. Most of the major index ETFs recorded new highs this month already. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) hit an intraday new high last week and...
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GOOD NEWS ON EMPLOYMENT CONTINUES GLOBAL MARKETS SURGE -- $SPX ONLY 1% AWAY FROM 2000 -- $INDU POWERS THROUGH 17000 -- $RUT REACHES TOP OF TRADING RANGE -- $USD CONTINUES SIDEWAYS RANGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOOD NEWS ON EMPLOYMENT CONTINUES GLOBAL MARKETS SURGE... The month of July has continued the positive push that June had going. With the big surge on July 1, the Wednesday market closed with a small consolidation candle. Today's shortened trading session pushed up to new highs on the...
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Dollar Index Faces Important Technical Test
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Click here for a written version of this article....
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STRONG DATA FROM CHINA BOOSTS COPPER -- FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD IS BREAKING OUT -- STRONG AUTOS ARE GOOD FOR COPPER -- GM AND TOYOTA LEAD AUTO RALLY -- AUTO DEMAND IS ALSO HELPING PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COPPER PRICES HIT FIVE-MONTH HIGH... Copper prices are turning in a strong performance. Chart 1 shows the September 2014 futures contract (^HGU14) climbing sharply to reach a five-month high (see arrow). The industrial metal has also climbed over its 200-day moving average. Chart 2 shows that rise also being reflected...
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SMALL AND MID CAP ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS -- AS DOES HALF OF THE RUSSELL 2000 -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR CHALLENGES PRIOR HIGH -- RETAILERS LIFT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR -- USING THE SECTOR SUMMARY TO FIND STOCKS IN A GROUP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL AND MID CAP ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for today's video. The S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) and S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) were lagging the S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF in late May, but started playing catch up in June...
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REGIONAL BANK SPDR STALLS AFTER BIG MOVE -- REGIONS AND FNB FORM FLAG PATTERNS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES BOUNCES AND HOLDS BREAKOUT -- NEW HOME SALES HIT MULTI-YEAR HIGH -- NETWORKING ISHARES BREAKS FLAG RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
REGIONAL BANK SPDR STALLS AFTER BIG MOVE... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) holding support near the 37 area and surging above 39 in early June. Overall, the trend on the weekly chart is up because the ETF hit a new high...
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COMMODITIES ARE THE BIGGEST FIRST HALF WINNERS -- LONG-TERM TREND FAVORS STOCKS OVER BONDS -- RISING COMMODITIES MAY HELP STOCKS, BUT ARE BAD FOR BONDS -- RISING COMMODITIES BOOST ENERGY AND MATERIAL STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITIES AND STOCKS WERE TOP FIRST HALF PERFORMERS... With the first half of the year coming to a close, it's a good time to study the relative performances of the various asset classes. Chart 1 shows that commodities and stocks were the two biggest gainers -- and in...
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STOCKS STALL, BUT SELLING PRESSURE REMAINS SUBDUED -- SMALL DIVERGENCES APPEAR IN AD LINES -- GLOBAL AUTO ETF HITS A NEW HIGH -- FORD, GM AND TESLA POWER CARZ -- AUTO PARTS INDEX BREAKS TO NEW HIGH -- AMERICAN AXLE BOUNCES OF SUPPORT ZONE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS STALL, BUT SELLING PRESSURE REMAINS SUBDUED... Link for today's video. After hitting a new high last week, the Russell 1000 iShares (IWB) was hit with sudden selling pressure on Tuesday afternoon. This reversal day certainly looked negative on an intraday or candlestick chart, but it was not...
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OLD TECH LEADERS RESUME PUSH TO TRY FOR HIGHER HIGHS -- THE FINAL READING ON Q1 GDP MAKES Q2 GDP VERY IMPORTANT -- 30 YEAR BOND TURNS UP AGAIN -- IEF - 7 TO 10 YEAR BOND FUND IS PUSHING HIGHER -- HYG IS SOARING TO NEW HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OLD TECH LEADERS RESUME PUSH TO TRY FOR HIGHER HIGHS... While the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) shown in Chart 1 has pushed above the March 6th highs, some of the high momentum leaders like Amazon (AMZN) have remained well back as shown on Chart 2. AMZN is still struggling with the...
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SEASONAL LOWS MAY BE SETTING UP IN CORN AND WHEAT -- LONG TERM VIEW OF CORN VOLATILITY FOR JUNE/JULY PERIOD -- CORN IS HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH WHEAT AND SOYABEANS -- INVESTING DIRECTLY IN CORN OR WHEAT THROUGH TRACKING FUNDS -- DEERE AND CO TEST RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SEASONAL LOWS SETTING UP IN CORN AND WHEAT... Corn ($CORN) has a six month cyclical pattern where it marks significant sudden reversals as shown in Chart 1. The July 1 period is extremely volatile. The June 30 release of the crop report is one of the main reasons for the...
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FALLING BOND YIELDS HELP EXPLAIN WHY DIVIDEND ISHARES ARE SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- DRUG STOCKS LEAD HEALTHCARE SECTOR HIGHER -- LILLY AND MERCK HAVE STRONG CHART PATTERNS AND ARE NEARING 2008 HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) falling to the lowest level in a month. It also remains below moving average lines. Part of the yield drop may be the result of some flight to the safety of Treasury...
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Bearish One Day Reversal and KST Argue for a Short-term Correction
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Several market averages experience bearish outside days.
* NASDAQ Composite forms bearish Pinocchio bar
* Brokers leading the market lower
* Further dollar weakness anticipated
* Gold just below key resistance
* Commodities break out from a nice base
US Equities
I have been saying for several weeks that the market is overextended but that...
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NASDAQ 100 ETF STAYS OVERBOUGHT AND BULLISH -- INTERNET ETF, GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK LEAD -- STEEL ETF BREAKS ABOVE TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- CHINA HOLDS THE KEY TO INTERNATIONAL STEEL STOCKS -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TESTS KEY LEVEL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ 100 ETF STAYS OVERBOUGHT AND BULLISH... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the market with a modest gain and a new high on Tuesday. Yes, the overbought simply become even more overbought. QQQ broke resistance in the 90-91 area and...
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BASE METALS ETF HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH -- ZINC AND ALUM LEAD INDUSTRIAL METALS -- COPPER SETS A BEAR TRAP -- COPPER MINERS ETF ESTABLISHES A LONG BASE -- NON-FERROUS METALS INDEX BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE -- FREEPORT MCMORAN SHOWS POSITIVE MOMENTUM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BASE METALS ETF HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Base Metals ETF (DBB) making waves with a resistance breakout and four-month high. I featured DBB in the Market Message on June 2nd as it challenged resistance and on June 9th as an inverse...
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ENERGY AND METALS LEAD COMMODITIES TO NEW 2014 HIGH -- FOREX FUNDS FLOW INTO BRITAIN AND CANADA -- WISDOMTREE JAPAN HEDGED EQUITY FUND NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ON WEAKER YEN -- NISSAN AND TOYOTA HELP LEAD STRONG AUTO GROUP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY AND METALS LEAD COMMODITY RALLY... The weekly bars in Chart 2 show the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index closing at the highest level since the third quarter of 2012. [The CRB Index includes 19 commodities that are traded on exchanges in the U.S. and U.K.]. Commodity prices turned...
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SECTOR MAJORITY REMAINS BULLISH -- ONE KEY SECTOR IS STILL LAGGING -- LARGE-CAPS LEAD AND MID-CAPS HIT NEW HIGHS -- SMALL-CAP BREAKOUT HOLDS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TESTS THE BREAKOUT ZONE -- REFINERS AND THE BRENT-WTI SPREAD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR MAJORITY REMAINS BULLISH... Link for today's video. The overall picture remains bullish for stocks. Note that seven major index ETFs hit new highs this week. These include the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF, Nasdaq 100 ETF, Russell 1000 iShares, S&P 1500 ETF, S&P MidCap...
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Failure of Equities to Decline on Unexpected Bad News from Iraq is Bullish
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Equities remain overstretched.
* Japanese ETF just below key resistance.
* Bonds look vulnerable as short-term rates break to the upside.
* Dollar Index triggers a sell signal.
* Gold is cloe to confirming a primary bull market.
* Commodities acting consistently with a primary bull market.
(Click here for the narrated video version of...
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FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING SENDS MARKETS TO NEW HIGHS -- $$GDP AND EQUITY MARKET CORRELATIONS -- $COMPQ TRIES TO HOLD NEW HIGHS AFTER BREAKING OUT -- $INDU SURGES 100 POINTS -- $VIX MAKES FRESH 7-YEAR LOWS -- XLU AND XLP HAVE HUGE VOLUME SURGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING SENDS MARKET TO NEW HIGHS... The equities market S&P 500 ($SPX) clearly liked the Fed announcement yesterday. It pushed the market back up above the highs of last week after some small range days Friday through to Tuesday. Sometimes the Fed day can be a...
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SMALL-CAP ETFS HOLD BREAKOUTS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD -- RUSSELL 2000 VALUE ETF NEARS NEW HIGH -- TECHS AND BIOTECHS WEIGH ON RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH ETF -- SHORT-TERM YIELDS SURGE AS 10-YEAR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- RISING RATES BENEFIT REGIONAL BANKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAP ETFS HOLD BREAKOUTS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD... Link for today's video. A strong breakout should hold, and a weak breakout should fold. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) broke out with big moves over the last four weeks and it is...
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SOLAR ENERGY ETF BOUNCES OFF KEY MOVING AVERAGE -- FIRST SOLAR SURGES OFF KEY RETRACEMENT -- GT ADVANCED TECH AND SUNEDISON LEAD THE GROUP -- SOLARCITY CONSOLIDATES NEAR KEY RETRACEMENT -- SUNPOWER FORMS BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SOLAR ENERGY ETF BOUNCES OFF KEY MOVING AVERAGE ... Link for today's video. The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) is perking up with a bounce off its rising 200-day moving average and a break above the 50-day moving average. Chart 1 shows TAN hitting a new high near 50 and...
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BRIC ISHARES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE AS CHINESE ISHARES RISE TO NEW 2014 HIGH -- CANADIAN STOCKS NEAR 2008 HIGH AND GET A BOOST FROM GOLD AND OIL -- UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN OIL HELPS ENERGY STOCKS BUT HURT AIRLINES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES ARE TESTING RESISTANCE... My May 28 message showed emerging market stocks moving up toward overhead resistance. That testing process continues. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) ending the week above their October intra-day high (43.52), but still below their December 2012...
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STOCKS DESERVE A CORRECTION AFTER BIG MOVES -- THROWBACK LEVELS TO WATCH FOR SPY AND RSP -- STEEL ETF UNDERPERFORMS AFTER WEDGE BREAKOUT -- WTI, BRENT AND GASOLINE BREAK TO NEW HIGHS -- RETAIL SALES STAGNATE AS XRT BACKS OFF KEY TREND LINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS DESERVE A CORRECTION AFTER BIG MOVES... Link for today's video. Stocks went on a tear with big gains from mid April to mid June. PerfChart 1 shows the percentage gains for the major index ETFs from April 11th to June 12th. The Nasdaq 100 ETF and Nasdaq...
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