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WATCHING BOND YIELD AND PRICE FOR CLUES TO STOCK MARKET DIRECTION -- APPLYING BOLLINGER BANDS TO THE S&P 500 -- EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES AND STOCKS ARE TESTING CRITICAL CHART SUPPORTS -- VIX INDEX IS TESTING RESISTANCE ALONG 2013 HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD TEST NEARS CHART SUPPORT ... The downturn on bond yields at the start of the year forewarned of a pullback in stocks. Both have fallen together as some money left stocks for the relative safety of Treasury bonds. Chart 1, however, shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX)...   READ MORE 

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DOWN TURN IN YIELD CURVE WEIGHS ON BANKS -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR BREAKS LONG-TERM TREND LINE -- NATURAL GAS STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SECTOR PERFCHARTS REVEAL A POTENTIAL 2014 LEADER -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR HITS FIRST SUPPORT ZONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOWN TURN IN YIELD CURVE WEIGHS BANKS... Link for today's video. Regional banks got hit hard over the last few weeks as the yield curve turned down this year. The yield curve affects banking profits because banks make money by borrowing short, lending long and capturing the spread....   READ MORE 

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SPY BREAKS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL -- MDY AND XLF TRIGGER CONTINUATION SIGNALS -- XLY EXTENDS DECLINE AND RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- AUTOS AND RETAILERS WEIGH -- NIKKEI 225 CORRECTS TO FIRST SUPPORT ZONE -- EURO BREAKS KEY LEVEL AS MOMENTUM REMAINS BEARISH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY BREAKS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL ... Link for today's video. After a big decline in mid January, stocks consolidated last week with flags and pennants forming in several ETFs. Flags and pennants are short-term continuation patterns that form after a sharp move. Chart 1 shows the S&...   READ MORE 

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VOLUME PATTERN SUGGESTS DEEPER CORRECTION FOR STOCKS -- JANUARY BAROMETER IS A NEGATIVE SIGN FOR STOCKS DURING 2014 -- SO IS THE FACT THAT THIS IS A MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR -- UTILITIES, REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS FOLLOW BOND PRICES HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEAVY DOWNSIDE VOLUME ISN'T A GOOD SIGN... The stock market ended the week as it began -- on the downside. Two low-volume bounces on Tuesday and Thursday were followed by higher volume declines on Wednesday and Friday. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Industrials and S&...   READ MORE 

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BLAME XLY AND TLT BEFORE EEM -- FEBRUARY PATTERNS SHIFT FOR THE S&P 500 -- ADDING A TIME DIMENSION TO THE CORRECTION TARGETS -- BREADTH INDICATORS PULLBACK WITHIN BIGGER UPTREND -- NET NEW HIGHS DIP TO PRIOR REVERSAL ZONES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BLAME XLY AND TLT BEFORE EEM... Link for today's video. There is certainly a lot of blame to go around for the recent weakness in the stock market. First, the employment report missed expectations at the beginning of January and this kept a bid in the bond market....   READ MORE 

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$SPX FED DATES CREATE SUPPORT AT 1775 -- NUMBER OF STOCKS ABOVE THE 50 DMA IS AT A RALLY LEVEL -- $SPXA200R IS WEAKENING - NEXT RALLY MAY DEFINE MAJOR TOP -- $NATGAS BECOMES A LAUNCH FUEL -- GLD MOVES BACK BELOW THE 20 DMA -- FACEBOOK TAKES FLIGHT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

$SPX FED DATES CREATE SUPPORT AT 1775... The stock market has returned back to the level that was first touched on the Oct 30th Fed meeting at 1775 as shown in Chart 1. After running back below 1750 in November, the reversal came in right after the large black engulfing...   READ MORE 

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FED CONTINUES TAPERING PROGRAM -- NO RELIEF FROM EMERGING MARKET SELLOFF -- US STOCK INDEXES TEST INITIAL SUPPORT -- WEEKLY BOLLINGER BANDS HELP FIND POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE TARGETS -- PREVIOUS PULLBACKS TO LOWER BAND HAVE PROVIDED SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED REDUCES MONTHLY BOND PURCHASES BY ANOTHER $10 BILLION ... The Fed announced this afternoon that it will continue bond tapering program by reducing its February bond purchases from $75 billion to $65 billion. Some observers thought that Fed might back off on its tapering after the recent plunge in emerging...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SPDR BECOMES MOST OVERSOLD SINCE 2011 -- JP MORGAN, MORGAN STANLEY AND WELLS HOLD SUPPORT -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES BOUNCES OFF BREAKOUT ZONE -- LENNAR, PULTE AND RYLAND FORM BULL FLAGS -- THE DOLLAR IS ACTUALLY A PRETTY STRONG CURRENCY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SPDR BECOMES MOST OVERSOLD SINCE 2011... Link for today's video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is getting an oversold bounce after a very sharp decline. XLF led the market lower over the prior three days with a plunge from 22 to 21. Even though this is just one...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 ETF BREAKS IMPORTANT TREND LINE -- QQQ TESTS SUPPORT AS CCI BECOMES OVERSOLD -- COPPER FAILS AT RESISTANCE -- BASE METALS ETF TRACES OUT BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERN -- COPPER MINERS ETF TURNS SHARPLY LOWER -- SILVER GETS THE SQUEEZE PLAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ETF BREAKS IMPORTANT TREND LINE... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) continued lower in early trading on Monday and broke the trend line extending up from early September. With a decline below 113, chart 1 shows the ETF moving to its lowest level...   READ MORE 

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PLUNGE IN EMERGING MARKETS CAUSES GLOBAL DOWNTURN IN STOCKS -- CHINESE STOCKS TUMBLE ON WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS -- BOND RALLY FORWARNED OF POSSIBLE STOCK CORRECTION EARLIER IN THE MONTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

PLUNGE IN EMERGING CURRENCIES PULLS STOCKS LOWER ... My Wednesday message showed the close correlation between weak emerging market currencies and emerging market stocks. It showed the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund (CEW) threatening to break an important support line. The green line in Chart 1 shows that happening. After falling sharply...   READ MORE 

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SIZING UP A POTENTIAL CORRECTION IN SPY -- MARKING KEY SUPPORTS FOR IWM AND QQQ -- SCTR BREAKS DOWN FOR THE FINANCE SPDR -- SMALLER BANKS HOLD UP BETTER THAN BIGGER BANKS -- ENERGY-RELATED ETFS BREAK DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SIZING UP A POTENTIAL CORRECTION IN SPY... Link for today's video. Stocks have been quite mixed up in January. This mixed trading applies to the major index ETFs and the sector SPDRs. First, we saw new highs in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)...   READ MORE 

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THURSDAY SEES BIG MOVES IN CURRENCIES, COMMODITIES, EQUITIES AND BONDS -- $SPX TESTS BOTTOM OF RANGE -- $TYX YIELDS CONTINUE TO FALL -- $NATGAS TAKES A RUN AT $5 -- $GOLD BREAKS A 16 MONTH TRENDLINE -- $USD GAPS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THURSDAY SEES BIG MOVES IN EQUITIES, COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES AND BONDS.... Almost everything was moving around 1% today. You can see on Chart 1, this is my TOP 15 THINGS TO WATCH Chart list. I get a quick snapshot of the intraday action in each group. For the big picture, the...   READ MORE 

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2008 COMMODITY PEAK ENDED EMERGING MARKET BOOM -- COMMODITY PRODUCERS LIKE BRAZIL AND RUSSIA HAVE BEEN WEAKEST EMERGING MARKETS -- WEAK EMERGING CURRENCIES WEIGH ON STOCKS -- LOCAL CURRENCY EMERGING BONDS FALL THE HARDEST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

2008 COMMODITY PEAK ENDED EMERGING MARKET BOOM... My Monday message expressed the view that a stronger U.S. dollar during 2014 would have important ripple effects around the globe. One effect would be a stronger performance by U.S. stocks relative to foreign stocks. Another would be stronger performance by...   READ MORE 

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QQQ AND IWM MAINTAIN BREAKOUTS AND LEADERSHIP -- XLY TAKES A RELATIVE PERFORMANCE DIVE -- STEEL ETF FALLS BACK TO SUPPORT -- STOCKS ARE UNDERPERFORMING TREASURIES THIS YEAR -- PIMCO BOND FUNDS SURGE IN JANUARY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ AND IWM MAINTAIN BREAKOUTS AND LEADERSHIP... Link for today's video. The major index ETFs remain in uptrends and these uptrends may seem long in tooth, but we have yet to see sustained selling pressure or a significant decline (10%). Declines were limited because buyers were quick to...   READ MORE 

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US DOLLAR STARTS THE YEAR ON A STRONG NOTE -- A FIRMER GREENBACK DURING 2014 WOULD FAVOR U.S. STOCKS OVER FOREIGN STOCKS -- A STRONGER DOLLAR WOULD ALSO WEIGH ON COMMODITY PRICES -- EAFA ISHARES ARE NEARING A TEST OF 2007 HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

US DOLLAR STARTS THE NEW YEAR ON A STRONG NOTE ... The U.S. dollar has entered 2014 on a strong note. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) trending higher during January which continued its stronger pace since late October. The USD is now moving up to challenge...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS AND LARGE-TECHS LEAD THE MARKET -- AD LINE AND AD VOLUME LINE BREAK OUT TO NEW HIGHS -- REVISITING A LONG-TERM TARGET FOR GOLD -- DOLLAR CHALLENGES KEY LEVEL -- SEASONALITY FOR S&P 500, GOLD, OIL, DOLLAR AND TREASURIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS AND LARGE-TECHS LEAD THE MARKET... Link for today's video. Four of the five major index ETFs I track recorded new highs this week to affirm the current uptrend in the stock market. These include the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), the Nasdaq 100 ETF...   READ MORE 

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THE INTERCEPT COMES ROARING BACKWARDS -- BIOTECHS STEP ON THE ACCELERATOR -- BEST BUY CHECKS OUT OF THE UPTREND -- XLE TESTS THE TREND LINE AGAIN WITH DIVERGENCE -- THE CANADIAN MINING SECTOR BREAKS OUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE INTERCEPT COMES ROARING BACKWARDS... The Biotech Index has recently accelerated with Intercept Pharmaceuticals going ballistic last week. On Chart 1, ICPT shot up from $75 to almost $497 in 2 days. ICPT has since pulled back to $276.00. Investors may look for a basing pattern in the stock...   READ MORE 

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BANKS CONTINUE TO ATTRACT MORE INTEREST -- SO DO AUTOS -- THE DJ AUTOMOBILE INDEX HAS BULLISH LONG TERM PATTERN -- TESLA AND FORD ARE RECOVERING FROM FOURTH QUARTER CORRECTION -- GM IS IN SHORT-TERM CORRECTION -- 10 YEAR YIELD BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BANKS ARE LEADING STRONG FINANCIAL SECTOR... Last Wednesday's message wrote a positive article on bank stocks, and showed the group doing better on both an absolute and relative basis. Chart 1 is an updated version of the KBW Bank SPDR (KBE), and shows the ETF climbing 1% today...   READ MORE 

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MARKING FUTURE SUPPORT FOR THE XLY, XLK, XLI AND XLF -- SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR CONFIRMS CONTINUATION PATTERN -- FOUR SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS GOING FOR BREAKOUTS -- THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING ETF FORMS BULLISH PENNANT -- EBAY HITS AN INTERESTING JUNCTURE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKING FUTURE SUPPORT FOR THE XLY, XLK, XLI AND XLF... Link for today's video. There is no doubt that the four offensive sector SPDRs are in up trends. First, all four are trading within a few percent of their 52-week highs. Second, current prices are near the...   READ MORE 

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USING SEASONALITY TO GET THE EDGE IN RETAIL STOCKS -- COMPARING ABSOLUTE VERSUS RELATIVE SEASONALITY -- SCTR HITS 12-MONTH MILESTONE FOR RETAIL SPDR -- GAP AND KOHLS ARE IN SHORT-TERM UPTRENDS, BUT UNDERPERFORMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING SEASONALITY TO GET THE EDGE IN RETAIL STOCKS... Link for today's video. It is a big week for the Retail SPDR (XRT) because the Commerce Department will report December retail sales on Tuesday before the open. The consensus estimate is for a .4% gain in month-to-...   READ MORE 

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WEAK DECEMBER JOBS REPORT PUSHES BOND YIELDS SHARPLY LOWER AND BOND PRICES HIGHER -- THAT ALSO BOOSTS DIVIDEND PAYERS LIKE REITS AND UTILITIES WHICH OFFER BETTER RETURNS THAN BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD PLUNGES ON WEAK JOBS REPORT... Friday's news that American employers added only 74,000 jobs in December didn't have much of an effect on the broader stock market, but did shock bond investors. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) suffering...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 SPDR STALLS AFTER MINI BREAKOUT -- RUSSELL 2000 ETF HITS SHORT-TERM TREND LINE -- 20+ YR T-BOND ETF CONVERTS THE SQUEEZE PLAY -- NON-FARM PAYROLLS: A BLIP OR A NEW REALITY? -- ISM INDICES EXTEND WINNING STREAK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 SPDR STALLS AFTER MINI BREAKOUT... Link for today's video. The major index ETFs remain in long-term uptrends, but moved into corrective mode after big surges in the second half of December. While I am not looking for a major trend reversal in the...   READ MORE 

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$SPX MOVES HORIZONTAL FOR TWO WEEKS -- THE AIRLINES AND RAILS ENJOY LOWER FUEL COSTS -- THE ENERGY SECTOR IS THINNING IN BREADTH -- NATURAL GAS AND COAL ALSO PLUMMET -- $COPPER IS AT A PIVOT POINT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

$SPX MOVES HORIZONTAL FOR TWO WEEKS ... Looking at the intraday on Chart 1 of the $SPX with 1 hour candles, the market has been unable to make any real process since the surge after the Fed meeting. The $INDU Chart looks a little weaker as we are trying to find...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS ARE HELPING BANKS, BUT HURTING DIVIDEND PAYING SHARES -- RISING YIELDS ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER EMERGING MARKETS -- GOLD IS HURT BY RISING BOND YIELDS AND A NEW SECULAR BULL MARKET IN STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HIGHER BOND YIELDS ARE HELPING BANKS ... Banks stocks have been market leaders during the first week of the new year. Chart 1 shows the KBW Bank SPDR (KBE) recently hitting a new high. Its relative strength ratio (gray area) has also been rising. Part of that is due to expectations...   READ MORE 

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MIRROR MIRROR ON THE WALL, WHO'S THE STRONGEST SECTOR OF ALL? -- SETTING A BULLISH-BEARISH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH-LOW PERCENT -- RANKING SECTORS AND ANALYZING ROTATION USING THE BPI -- INDUSTRIALS, MATERIALS AND FINANCE LEAD BPI TABLE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MIRROR MIRROR ON THE WALL, WHO'S THE STRONGEST SECTOR OF ALL... Link for today's video. Today's commentary will show chartists two unique ways to measure relative performance for the nine sector SPDRs. Note that today's video provides step-by-step instructions for...   READ MORE 

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USING RSI(5) TO PLAY THE PULLBACKS -- QQQ HITS FIRST SUPPORT ZONE -- TRADING THE THROWBACK AFTER THE BREAK OUT IN ITB -- A CLASSIC CORRECTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EURO -- THE DOLLAR COULD BE SETTING UP FOR A BIG MOVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING RSI(5) TO PLAY THE PULLBACKS... Link for today's video. It looks like stocks are having a New Year's Eve hangover with weakness over the last three days. I would not consider this an omen for the rest of the year just yet though. A...   READ MORE 

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CHANNEL SURFING WITH THE S&P 500 -- USING CCI TO TRADE THE TREND -- MARKET INTERNALS CONFIRM UNDERLYING STRENGTH -- HIGH-LOW LINE CAPTURES SMOOTH UPTREND -- XLY AND XLI SUPPORT A STRONG STOCK MARKET -- FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY SPDRS START OUTPERFORMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHANNEL SURFING WITH THE S&P 500... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 remains in a strong uptrend and is now nearing the upper trend line of a twenty-six month channel. First and foremost, there is no sign of a major top on...   READ MORE 

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2009-2014 $SPX ON SAME SLOPE AS 1995-2000 -- 2003 -2007 $SPX SLOPE HAS BEEN SEEN BEFORE -- THE $SPX IS ON ONE OF THE LONGEST STREAKS SINCE 1984 -- MID DECADE RALLIES HAVE BEEN A THEME -- $WTIC GIVES UP 3 WEEKS OF GAINS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

2009-2014 $SPX ON SAME SLOPE AS 1995-2000 ... Year-end is always a good place to review the big picture. The current slope of the $SPX advance is the same as in the 5 year run from 1995-2000. As long as we stay above the multi year trend...   READ MORE 

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METAL AND MINING STOCKS SHOW NEW STRENGTH -- STEEL LEADERS ARE AKSTEEL, NUCOR, AND STEEL DYNAMICS -- ALCOA AND FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD HAVE ALSO TURNED UP -- COPPER JUMPS TO EIGHT-MONTH HIGH -- RISING BALTIC SEA INDEX SUPPORTS HIGHER BOND YIELDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

METALS & MINING ETF TURNS UP ... Another sign of growing economic strength is recent buying of metals and mining stocks. These stocks usually do better when demand for industrial metals increases which is tied to a stronger economy. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P Metals...   READ MORE 

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TICKER CLOUD HIGHLIGHTS RECENT IPO'S SHIPPING COMPANIES START TO MOVE -- A $2229 STOCK SELLING FOR $2 - JUST ABOUT FREE -- GLD BOUNCES OFF HORIZONTAL SUPPORT -- CRUDE TRYING TO SET RECORD HIGH YEARLY CLOSE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TICKER CLOUD HIGHLIGHTS RECENT IPO'S ... The ticker cloud can offer some unique clues on a quiet day. Today GOGO, VJET and TWTR are all recent IPO's that are showing up in the ticker cloud.Chart 1 shows the ticker cloud earlier this morning, while Chart 2...   READ MORE 

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FIVE OF NINE SECTOR SPDRS HIT NEW HIGHS -- IWM BREAKS FLAG RESISTANCE, BUT STILL LAGS -- SPY SURGES TO NEW HIGH WITH MOMENTUM BREAKOUT -- BREADTH INDICATORS SURGE AND ESTABLISH KEY SUPPORT -- HIGH-LOW PERCENT SURGES BACK ABOVE 15%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FIVE OF NINE SECTOR SPDRS HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for today's video. The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks as we close one year and head into another. The long-term uptrends were affirmed with new highs in most of the major indices this month. The...   READ MORE 

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FED TAPER AND STRONGER ECONOMY SHOULD BOOST BOND YIELDS IN 2014 -- THAT WOULD BRING BOND YIELDS TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS AND ISN'T NECESSARILY BAD FOR STOCKS -- STOCK/BOND RATIO BREAKS 13-YEAR RESISTANCE LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POSSIBLE UPSIDE TARGET FOR 10-YEAR BOND YIELD IS 3.75%... Wednesday's Fed announcement that it would finally begin a modest tapering of bond purchases in January gave a slight boost to bond yields during the second half of the week. The daily bars in Chart 1 show...   READ MORE 

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HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS SURGE -- SCTR CLEARS KEY LEVEL FOR THE HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES -- LENNAR AND TOLL BROTHERS CHALLENGE SUMMER HIGHS -- USG FIRMS IN KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- TREASURIES GET A BAND SQUEEZE AS FED CHANGES DIRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS HIT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS... Link for today's video. Data from the St Louis Fed database (FRED) shows Housing Starts (HOUST) and Building Permits (PERMIT) surging in the fourth quarter and hitting multi-year highs. Chart 1 shows Housing Starts moving to its highest...   READ MORE 

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FED DAY SHOWS OUT OF CHARACTER HIGH VOLUMES -- DECLINING NUMBER OF NET NEW HIGHS IS PROBLEMATIC -- THE XLF, $XBD AND KRE ARE MAKING NEW HIGHS -- THE INSURANCE GROUP IS LAGGING -- BONDS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM STOCKS -- THE $USD LOOKS TO BE TURNING UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE FED DAY SHOWS OUT OF CHARACTER HIGH VOLUMES.... The stock market roared to life on Wednesday with the Fed announcement of some tapering. Chart 1 shows the QQQ hitting the highest volume since January 2, 2013. While December 2012 average volumes were higher, this was a huge volume day...   READ MORE 

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FED ANNOUNCES MILD BOND TAPERING STARTING IN JANUARY -- BUT OFFERS ASSURANCE THAT SHORT-TERM RATES WILL STAY DOWN -- STOCKS RALLY SHAPLY ON THE NEWS -- LENNAR LEADS HOMEBUILDERS HIGHER -- VIX TUMBLES AS STOCKS SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED REDUCES BOND PURCHASES BY 10 BILLION IN JANUARY... Well, it finally happened. The Fed today announced that it would start reducing its monthly bond purchases from $85 to $75 billion starting in January. It also reassured investors, however, that short-term rates would still stay near current levels for...   READ MORE 

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SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR CHALLENGES OCTOBER HIGH -- NETWORKING ISHARES SETS A BEAR TRAP -- ARRIS AND PALO ALTO NETWORKS LEAD NETWORKERS -- BALTIC DRY INDEX HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH -- SHIPPING ETF CONSOLIDATES WITHIN UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR CHALLENGES OCTOBER HIGH... Link for today's video. The broad market was weak in early trading on Tuesday, but there were pockets of strength in the tech sector. In particular, the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) was up around 1% and trading near its October high. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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TELECOM ISHARES CORRECTS WITH FALLING CHANNEL -- AT&T AND VERIZON BOUNCE OFF FIBONACCI LEVELS -- HONDA AND TOYOTA WEIGH ON GLOBAL AUTO ETF -- FORD TESTS SUPPORT AS UPSIDE VOLUME INCREASES -- SCTR SURGES FOR MARKETVECTORS RUSSIA ETF

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TELECOM ETF CORRECTS WITH FALLING CHANNEL... Link for today's video. The Telecom iShares (IYZ) has underperformed the broader market over the last five weeks, but the ETF hit a support zone and firmed the last few days. Chart 1 shows IYZ in a long-term uptrend as the...   READ MORE 

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THE FOUR-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE SUGGESTS THAT 2014 COULD SUFFER A MAJOR DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A MAJOR BUYING OPPORTUNITY IS LIKELY LATER IN THE YEAR -- THE STRONGEST THREE MONTH PERIOD ENDS IN JANUARY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERM IS USUALLY THE WORST ... Those of you who have read my messages over the last year know that I am bullish on the long-term direction of the stock market. I believe that the "secular" bear market that started in 2000 ended this...   READ MORE 

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SPY APPROACHES SUPPORT ZONE AND BECOMES OVERSOLD -- RUSSELL 2000 IS UP 85% OF THE TIME IN DECEMBER -- DIA AND IWM CORRECT WITH BULL FLAGS -- HIGH-LOW INDICATOR HITS MAKE-OF-BREAK LEVEL -- SMALL DIVERGENCES FORM IN AD LINE AND AD VOLUME LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY APPROACHES SUPPORT ZONE AND BECOMES OVERSOLD... Link for today's video. After a big October and big November, trading in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and stock market turned choppy in December. The trading range is relatively small and not enough to affect the overall uptrend....   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL MARKETS ARE MOSTLY LOWER IN DECEMBER -- PERCENTAGE OF STOCKS ABOVE THE 50 DMA CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE -- $COMPQ IS STILL OUTPERFORMING -- UTILITIES AND ENERGY SECTORS UNDERPERFORM -- $USD APPEARS CORRECTIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

** GLOBAL MARKETS ARE MOSTLY LOWER IN DECEMBER **... Chart 1 shows the price moves of the major global markets since the close of November. The $BSE ( Bombay, India) has moved higher. The $FTSE (London) and $CAC (France) markets are continuing to go lower. Germany is still strong as it is up...   READ MORE