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US DOLLAR INDEX IS POISED TO BREAKOUT AND CONTINUE UPTREND -- EURO FAILS AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- YEN NEARS LONG-TERM SUPPORT ZONE -- AUSSIE BREAKS SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE -- SPOT LIGHT CRUDE SURGES TO RESISTANCE LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

US DOLLAR IS POISED TO BREAKOUT AND CONTINUE UPTREND... Link for todays video. With continuing Yen weakness and recent declines in the Euro, the US Dollar Index ($USD) surged and is poised to break flag resistance. Chart 1 shows the index with a large rising channel since April 2011. The...   READ MORE 

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RISING PRICE CHANNEL SHOWS ROOM TO RUN FOR THE DOW -- MACD-HISTOGRAM EXTENDS POSITIVE STREAK FOR S&P 500 -- BREADTH CONFIRMS UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN BROADER MARKET -- SMALLER SPX STOCKS LAG, BUT EQUAL-WEIGH INDEX HITS NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING PRICE CHANNEL SHOWS ROOM TO RUN FOR THE DOW... Link for todays video. Stocks have been on a tear since mid November and show now signs of reversing course. We can argue about overbought conditions, the employment participation rate and the Fed affect, but there is simply no debate...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SECTOR IS SHOWING MARKET LEADERSHIP, BUT STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY CHEAP -- BANK STOCKS HAVE BEEN FINANCIAL LAGGARDS -- INSURANCE STOCKS HAVE BEEN FINANCIAL LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIAL SECTOR STILL LOOKS CHEAP... Fianancial stocks have been showing market leadership during May. That's usually a good sign for the rest of the stock market. Financial stocks have at least two things going for them. One is that they're in chart uptrends. The other is...   READ MORE 

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USING THE BULLISH PERCENT INDICES TO FIND THE MOVERS -- ENERGY BPI MAKES A BIG MOVE ON THE PERFCHART -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BPI IS BEST PERFORMER YEAR-TO-DATE -- FINANCE BPI HOVERS ABOVE 90% -- CONSUMER STAPLES BPI HITS ULTIMATE EXTREME

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING THE BULLISH PERCENT INDICES TO FIND THE MOVERS... Link for todays video. Today I am going to look at the Bullish Percent Indices for the nine sector SPDRs and the S&P 500. First, I will give a little primer on these breadth indicators. Second, I will show...   READ MORE 

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MOST NYSE STOCKS ARE BACK ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGES -- NEW SECTOR LEADERS ARE IN GROWTH AREAS LIKE ENERGY, MATERIALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY AS MONEY ROTATES OUT OF DEFENSIVE GROUPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MOST % NYSE STOCKS ARE BACK ABOVE THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGE... My market message written two weeks ago (Tuesday April 23) carried the headline that "Half of market is in a correction". I showed the % of NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day average falling below 50% during April. The situation...   READ MORE 

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SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IGNORES NEWS AND BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- GERMAN AND FRENCH INDICES SURGE TO NEW HIGHS -- NON-FARM PAYROLLS EXTEND POSITIVE STREAK -- JOBLESS CLAIMS ARE TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION -- ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FLIRTS WITH 50

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IGNORES NEWS AND BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Recent news out of China has been less than positive, but the market appears to be ignoring this negative news. Reports last week showed a slow down in the manufacturing sector and todays release of the PMI showed...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY YIELDS SURGE ON JOBS REPORT AND REVISIONS -- SETTING A CHANNEL TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 ETF -- LEADERSHIP IN TECH AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY IS POSITIVE -- EW TECHNOLOGY ETF BREAKS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY YIELDS SURGE ON JOBS REPORT AND REVISIONS... Link for todays video. The markets went through the employment wringer this week with the ADP report showing weak job growth on Wednesday, jobless claims dropping to a five year low on Thursday and non-farm payrolls growing a better-than-expected 165,000 in...   READ MORE 

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IWM LEADS LOWER AS MDY FORMS BROADENING FORMATION -- MATERIALS SECTOR TURNS DOWN FROM RANGE RESISTANCE -- REBOUND STALLS FOR OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT/SERVICES SPDR -- COPPER-STOCK CORRELATION HITS LOWEST LEVEL IN OVER FIVE YEARS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM LAGS AS MDY FORMS BROADENING FORMATION... Link for todays video. The Fed has come and gone without much fanfare, and no real change in policy as the Fed reiterated its pledge to continue the bond-buying program ($85 billion per month). The policy statement also noted that the committee would...   READ MORE 

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TECHNOLOGY SPDR EXCEEDS APRIL HIGH AND SHOWS NEW UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- APPLE AND MICROSOFT ARE LEADING GROUP HIGHER -- INTEL IS ANOTHER BIG TECH STOCK THAT'S RALLYING -- SO ARE OTHER CHIP STOCKS LIKE APPLIED MATERIALS, BROADCOM, AND NVIDIA

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY SPDR RESUMES UPTREND... Last Thursday's message wrote about the technololgy sector being one of the markets weakest groups this year. That may finally be changing for the better. Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) exceeding its early April high to reach the highest level in...   READ MORE 

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QQQ CHALLENGES SEPTEMBER HIGH -- APPLE AND GOOGLE PERK UP, BUT AMAZON UNDERPERFORMS -- IWM AND MDY TURN VOLATILE, BUT HOLD SUPPORT -- S&P 500 CONSOLIDATES NEAR CHANNEL TREND LINE -- PERCENTAGE OF STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY SMA REMAINS AT HIGH LEVELS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ CHALLENGES SEPTEMBER HIGH... Link for todays video. April volatility continued as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) surged back above 70 for the second time this month. With this gain, QQQ is again flirting with a 52-week high and showing upside leadership. Chart 1 shows the ETF with two patterns...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY BOND ETFS HOLD BREAKOUTS AFTER GDP REPORT -- 30 YEAR YIELD REMAINS BELOW 3% -- RELATIVE STRENGTH IN TREASURIES COULD BE NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS -- COULD BLOW-OFF TOPS BE TAKING SHAPE IN XLP AND XLV?

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY BOND ETFS HOLD BREAKOUTS AFTER GDP REPORT ... Link for todays video. Either the relationship between stocks and Treasuries is changing or something needs to give. Stocks and Treasuries have shown a rather strong negative correlation since late 2010. This negative correlation is being challenged in April. The S&...   READ MORE 

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APPLE HAS A LOT TO DO WITH TECHNOLOGY UNDERPERFORMANCE -- THE STOCK, HOWEVER, IS IN A POTENTIAL SUPPORT ZONE AND OVERSOLD -- MICROSOFT IS RISING -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF REACHES NINE-YEAR HIGH -- KLA TENCOR AND TEXAS INSTRUMENTS NEAR MAJOR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY SPDR HAS BEEN 2013 LAGGARD... My Tuesday message listed technology as one of this year's weakest market sectors. Let's take a look beneath the surface to see what's weighing on the sector, and where some strength lies. Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector...   READ MORE 

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APRIL LOWS NOW MARK KEY SUPPORTS FOR SPY AND DIA -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND RETAIL SPDR MAINTAIN UPTREND -- OIL AND GOLD SURGE. IS IT AN OVERSOLD BOUNCE OR MORE? -- ENERGY-RELATED ETFS SURGE ALONG WITH OIL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

APRIL LOWS NOW MARK KEY SUPPORTS FOR SPY AND DIA... Link for todays video. With a big bounce over the last 3-4 days, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Dow SPDR (DIA) affirmed support levels that extend back to mid March. Chart 1 shows SPY plunging to...   READ MORE 

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HALF OF MARKET IS IN A CORRECTION -- THAT'S WHAT NEEDS TO SHOW UPSIDE IMPROVEMENT -- THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WEAKEST SECTORS -- ENERGY, MATERIAL, INDUSTRIALS AND TECHNOLOGY -- ARE BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HALF OF NYSE STOCKS ARE BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE... The stock market continues to display remarkable resilience in the face of short-term warning signals of a possible downside correction. Although a number of short-term technical indicators have weakened, the market has kept rising. The resulting confusion may be the result of...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE AND HOUSING WEIGH ON STOCK MARKET -- PULTE AND KB HOME TESTS KEY SUPPORT LEVELS -- TOLL BROTHERS AND USG CORP SHOW MORE SENSITIVITY -- PUTTING APPLES MARKET CAP LOSS INTO PERSPECTIVE -- APPLE HITS LONG-TERM SUPPORT AS EARNINGS LOOM

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE AND HOUSING WEIGH ON STOCK MARKET... Link for todays video. The stock market was trading flat at midday on Monday with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Home Construction iShares (ITB) sporting small declines and showing some relative weakness. Chart 1 shows XLF breaking the November trend line last...   READ MORE 

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SPY FIRMS AT SUPPORT AS DI TRIGGERS -- QQQ TRACES OUT A FAMILIAR PATTERN -- XLI FIRMS AT SUPPORT WITH INDECISIVE CANDLESTICK -- TREASURY BOND ETFS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE -- JOBLESS CLAIMS REMAIN IN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY FIRMS AT SUPPORT AS DI TRIGGERS... Link for todays video. It was a rough week for stocks as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) declined to support from their mid March lows. Chart 1 shows SPY surging off the mid March lows...   READ MORE 

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COPPER BREAKDOWN RATTLES GLOBAL MARKETS -- FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD ALSO TUMBLES -- FOREIGN STOCKS ARE PULLING U.S. STOCKS LOWER -- WEAKNESS IN TECHNOLOGY STOCKS HAS PULLED QQQ INTO DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- SMALL CAPS HAVE TURNED DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COPPER PLUNGES TO 18-MONTH LOW-- FCX TUMBLES WITH IT... Of all the commodity markets, copper is viewed as the most closely aligned with trends in the global economy. Copper and other commodities have been lagging behind global stocks over the past year (largely owing to a stronger dollar and weakness...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SPDR STARTS SHOWING RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- JP MORGAN FORMS BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN -- SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR TESTS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL WITH SHARP DECLINE -- BROADCOM, TEXAS INSTRUMENTS AND ANALOG DEVICES LEAD SEMIS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SPDR STARTS SHOWING RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. The three defensive sectors have been leading the market in 2013 and over the past four weeks. This means the Healthcare SPDR (XLV), Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and Utilities SPDR (XLU) are up more than the offensive sectors and the...   READ MORE 

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A LOT OF TECHNICAL AND INTERMARKET FACTORS WARNED OF GOLD BREAKDOWN -- LONG TERM TECHNICAL INDICATORS HAVE BEEN WEAK -- GOLD MINERS HAD ALREADY BROKEN DOWN -- FALLING CHINESE STOCKS HAVE ALSO HURT COMMODITIES -- STOCKS HAVE SNAP BACK DAY BUT ON LOW VOLUME

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONG TERM TECHNICAL INDICATORS WEAKEN... The financial media on TV spent all day yesterday trying to come up with a reason to explain gold's dramatic price plunge. I admit that I don't know why yesterday's drop was so big, or why it happened yesterday....   READ MORE 

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DIA AND SPY LARGELY IGNORE THE NEGATIVES (SO FAR) -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN RSP FORESHADOWED LAST TWO CORRECTIONS -- OIL BREAKS KEY TREND LINE AND TESTS MARCH LOW -- XLE AND XES LEAD MARKET LOWER -- CHARTING THE DIPS IN NON-FARM PAYROLLS AND RETAIL SALES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA AND SPY LARGELY IGNORE THE NEGATIVES (SO FAR)... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) are within spitting distance of their highs, but the list of stock market negatives simply grows. Weakness in oil can be added to this list...   READ MORE 

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MID-CAPS AND SMALL-CAPS LAG, BUT MAINTAIN UPTRENDS -- TREASURIES SURGE AFTER RETAIL SALES REPORT -- MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDICES BREAK SUPPORT -- NASDAQ AD LINE FORMS BEARISH DIVERGENCE -- GOLD TESTS KEY SUPPORT ZONE WITH SHARP DECLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MID-CAPS AND SMALL-CAPS LAG, BUT MAINTAIN UPTRENDS... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) both hit fresh 52-week highs this week. Even the lowly Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) managed a big gain and recorded a new high for 2013. The S&...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH -- LAST WEEK'S LOW MARKS FIRST SUPPORT POINT -- POWERSHARES QQQ FINALLY SHOWS UPSIDE LEADERSHIP AND NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- EFA ISHARES REACH FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- JAPAN LEADS EAFE UPTURN -- EUROZONE BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 REACHES NEW INTRA-DAY RECORD... Yesterday's S&P 500 close pushed it through its October 2007 intra-day high at 1576. That means we can finally say that the S&P 500 is breaking out of its 13-year trading range that started in 2000...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 EXTEND UPTRENDS WITH NEW HIGHS -- XLF LEADS WITH FLAG BREAKOUT - XLK CLEARS MARCH HIGHS -- INTERNET ETF SURGES TO CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- NETWORKING ISHARES BOUNCES TO BROKEN SUPPORT -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF NEGATES SUPPORT BREAK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND S&P 500 HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for todays video. bThe Dow Industrials and S&P 500 extended their uptrends and hit new highs on Wednesday. Fed minutes showed signs of dissent on quantitative easing and this put pressure on Treasuries and gold. This is a...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR CONSOLIDATES ABOVE RESISTANCE BREAK -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR PULLS THE POP, STOP AND DROP -- KEY BREADTH INDICATOR FOR NASDAQ 100 TURNS BEARISH, BUT REMAINS BULLISH FOR SPX -- SPOT LIGHT CRUDE REVERSES AT TRIANGLE RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SPDR CONSOLIDATES ABOVE RESISTANCE BREAK... Link for todays video. Fridays employment report threw the stock market a curve ball on Friday, but the market managed to recover after a weak open. Non-farm payroll is a fairly volatile number that is subject to revision. The market will get another tests...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITY COUNTRIES HIT HARD BY FALLING PRICES -- PLUNGING YEN MAKES JAPAN WORLD'S STRONGEST MARKET -- GOLD TESTS SUPPORT BUT IS NO LONGER FAVORED OVER STOCKS -- OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 BACKS OFF FROM 2007 HIGH AND LOOKS TO BE ENTERING CORRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEAK COMMODITIES HURT PRODUCERS... This is the same headline used in my March 21 message which showed how falling commodities were hurting stocks of countries that produced commodities. A rising dollar causes foreign stocks to underperform U.S. stocks, which has been the case since the dollar bottomed during 2008....   READ MORE 

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WEAK JOBS REPORT PUSHES STOCKS DEEPER INTO CORRECTION -- FOREIGN STOCKS DROP AS WELL -- BOND PRICES JUMP AS YIELD DROPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ BREAKS MARCH SUPPORT -- S&P IS CLOSE TO DOING THE SAME ... A very weak jobs report this morning has contributed to a sharply lower open in global stocks. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite falling below its March low near 3200, and its 50-day average. That raises...   READ MORE 

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MARKET SUFFERS BAD COMBINATION OF FALLING PRICES AND RISING VOLUME -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LEAD DECLINE -- CANADIAN STOCKS TUMBLE -- BOND YIELD BREAKS SUPPORT -- NASDAQ AND S&P 500 ARE NEARING TEST OF FEBRUARY LOWS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LEAD MARKET LOWER... Wednesday's stock drop was the weakest combination of falling prices and rising volume this year. Also disturbing are the number of former group leaders that have suffered short-term breakdowns. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports falling to the lowest level in...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS AS IWM BREAKS SUPPORT -- USING THE VORTEX INDICATOR WITH SPY AND MDY -- FINANCIALS LEAD THE SECTORS LOWER -- HOMEBUILDERS LEAD CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR LOWER -- FDN TESTS SUPPORT AS IGN AND SMH BREAK SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS AS IWM BREAKS SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Small-caps started lagging large-caps last week and this relative weakness turned into absolute weakness as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) moved sharply lower the last few days. Chart 1 shows IWM consolidating the last two weeks of March...   READ MORE 

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DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS BATTLE IT OUT FOR DIA AND IWM -- SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER AFTER ISM -- BEARISH DIVERGENCES REMAIN FOR KEY BREADTH INDICATOR -- WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH APRIL?

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS BATTLE IT OUT FOR DIA AND IWM... Link for todays video. Lots of people are looking for a stock market correction, but it remains elusive as the major index ETFs either consolidate or extend their gains. There is only one thing required for a correction: more selling...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 TESTS 2007 HIGH -- STOCK/BOND RATIO REACHES FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- FIXED INCOME MONEY ROTATES FROM TREASURIES TO CORPORATE BONDS -- HIGH YIELD BONDS REMAIN STRONGEST BOND CATEGORY -- DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS ARE HELPING LEAD MARKET ADVANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P NEARS TEST OF 2007 HIGH ... The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 nearing its October 2007 intra-day peak at 1576. [The SPX is right at its 2007 closing high at 1565]. A new record high by the SPX seems inevitable given the...   READ MORE 

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QQQ RECOVERS AFTER WEAK OPEN -- ANALOG DEVICES, BROADCOM AND INTEL LEAD SEMIS HIGHER -- XLI AND XLF STALL WITH SMALL CONTINUATION PATTERNS -- EURO ETF EXTENDS PLUNGE TOWARDS NOVEMBER LOW -- TREASURIES SURGE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ RECOVERS AFTER WEAK OPEN ... Link for todays video. The markets are a bit jittery on Wednesday, but US technology stocks are holding up rather well and showing some buying interest. Sharp declines in the Euro and European equities put investors on edge Wednesday. Oil was also trading lower, while...   READ MORE 

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QQQ HITS RESISTANCE, BUT HOLDS THE WEDGE -- APPLE BREAKS 50-DAY AS AMZN TESTS SUPPORT -- FDN, IGN AND SMH NEAR KEY SUPPORT LEVELS -- EURO FALLS AFTER CYPRUS DEAL -- ITALIAN, FRENCH AND SPANISH STOCKS GIVE UP EARLY GAINS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ HITS RESISTANCE AT MARCH HIGH, BUT HOLDS THE WEDGE... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) may be forming a rising wedge, but that wedge is clearly rising and the medium-term trend is up as long as it rises. There are two sides to every trade, a...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES SPDRS GRAB THE LEAD -- CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR EXCEEDS CHANNEL LINE -- EQUAL-WEIGHT SECTOR ETFS OUTPERFORM SECTOR SPDRS -- TECHS AND MATERIALS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- GDX FORMS BEAR WEDGE WITH OVERSOLD BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES SPDRS GRAB THE LEAD... Link for todays video. By far, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) are the top performing sectors SPDRs year-to-date. PerfChart 1 shows XLV and XLP crushing the competition with outperforming exceeding 3%. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is the...   READ MORE 

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WEAK COMMODITIES HURT PRODUCERS LIKE BRAZIL AND CANADA -- THAT'S A SIDE-EFFECT OF A STRONGER U.S. DOLLAR -- WEAK CANADIAN DOLLAR IS PUTTING DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON CANADA ISHARES -- VANGUARD EX-USA STOCK INDEX REMAINS STALLED BELOW 2011 HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BRAZIL AND CANADA ARE UNDERPERFORMING THE U.S.... Last Thursday's message focused on the side-effects of a stronger U.S. dollar. One of the most notable intermarket effects was weaker commodity markets. Another is that a firmer dollar favors U.S. stocks over foreign stocks. I showed a...   READ MORE 

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SPY STALLS WITH A NARROW RANGE DAY -- QQQ AND XLK TURN VOLATILE, BUT HOLD THEIR GAPS -- HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS EXTEND LONG-TERM UPTRENDS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES LEADS AGAIN WITH A NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY STALLS WITH A NARROW RANGE DAY... Link for todays video. The Fed reiterated its intentions to purchase some $85 billion per month of Treasury and mortgage bonds  and the market greeted this news with a yawn. Stocks were already up heading into the announcement and traded flat afterwards. Chart...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN MARKET WEAKNESS IS BEGINNING TO WEIGH ON OVERBOUGHT US STOCKS -- EMERGING MARKET ISHARES FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS -- EUROPEAN ETF FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE IN HEAVY TRADING -- RISING DOLLAR PUNISHES ENERGY STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKET ISHARES CONTINUE TO DROP ... Last Thursday's message showed emerging markets rolling over to the downside, and warned that might be signalling a pullback in the U.S. That situation has grown worse since then. Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) falling to the lowest level...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND MDY RECOVER AFTER WEAK OPENINGS -- TREASURIES BOUNCE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- EURO HITS KEY RETRACEMENT AND MOVING AVERAGE -- GOLD BOUNCES OFF RANGE SUPPORT -- COPPER BREAKDOWN SIGNALS A CONTINUATION LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND MDY REOVER AFTER WEAK OPENINGS... Link for todays video. Events in Cyprus triggered selling pressure that started with Asian stocks, continued in Europe and extended to the US on the open. The Hang Seng Index ($HSI) fell 2% and the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) fell 2.71%. European equities...   READ MORE 

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CHANNEL LINE MARKS UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 -- COMBINING THE MACD-HISTOGRAM AND THE SIX MONTH CYCLE -- WHY IS THE S&P 500 ETF ALREADY ABOVE ITS 2007 HIGH? -- S&P MIDCAP 400 IS THE ONE TRUE LEADER -- RUSSELL 2000 IS SECOND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHANNEL LINE MARKS UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. There is certainly much ado about the S&P 500 and the 2007 highs these days. In the words of Mickey Blue Eyes, I say fuhgeddaboudit. Thats mob speak for forget about it. Why?...   READ MORE 

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SIDE-EFFECTS OF A STRONGER DOLLAR INCLUDE STOCKS DOING BETTER THAN COMMODITIES -- A STRONGER DOLLAR ALSO FAVORS U.S. OVER FOREIGN STOCKS -- TREASURY BOND YIELD IS RISING FASTER THAN FOREIGN YIELDS WHICH FAVORS DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. DOLLAR APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING... The monthly bars in Chart 1 plot the U.S. Dollar Index since 2001. Two major trends are seen on the chart. The first is the major downtrend in the dollar between 2002 and 2008. During 2008, the USD broke its six-year down...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SALES GROWTH BREAKS THE 1% THRESHOLD -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH IN MARCH -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES FORMS BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN -- RETAIL SPDR AND MV RETAIL ETF LEAD MARCH SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SALES GROWTH BREAKS THE 1% THRESHOLD... Link for todays video. The Commerce Department reported a 1.1% rise in February retail sales and the January number was revised higher. This better-than-expected number put retail sales growth above 1% for the first time since September. Chart 1 shows an area...   READ MORE