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SMALL-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS AS IWM BREAKS SUPPORT -- USING THE VORTEX INDICATOR WITH SPY AND MDY -- FINANCIALS LEAD THE SECTORS LOWER -- HOMEBUILDERS LEAD CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR LOWER -- FDN TESTS SUPPORT AS IGN AND SMH BREAK SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS AS IWM BREAKS SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Small-caps started lagging large-caps last week and this relative weakness turned into absolute weakness as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) moved sharply lower the last few days. Chart 1 shows IWM consolidating the last two weeks of March...   READ MORE 

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DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS BATTLE IT OUT FOR DIA AND IWM -- SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER AFTER ISM -- BEARISH DIVERGENCES REMAIN FOR KEY BREADTH INDICATOR -- WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH APRIL?

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS BATTLE IT OUT FOR DIA AND IWM... Link for todays video. Lots of people are looking for a stock market correction, but it remains elusive as the major index ETFs either consolidate or extend their gains. There is only one thing required for a correction: more selling...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 TESTS 2007 HIGH -- STOCK/BOND RATIO REACHES FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- FIXED INCOME MONEY ROTATES FROM TREASURIES TO CORPORATE BONDS -- HIGH YIELD BONDS REMAIN STRONGEST BOND CATEGORY -- DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS ARE HELPING LEAD MARKET ADVANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P NEARS TEST OF 2007 HIGH ... The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 nearing its October 2007 intra-day peak at 1576. [The SPX is right at its 2007 closing high at 1565]. A new record high by the SPX seems inevitable given the...   READ MORE 

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QQQ RECOVERS AFTER WEAK OPEN -- ANALOG DEVICES, BROADCOM AND INTEL LEAD SEMIS HIGHER -- XLI AND XLF STALL WITH SMALL CONTINUATION PATTERNS -- EURO ETF EXTENDS PLUNGE TOWARDS NOVEMBER LOW -- TREASURIES SURGE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ RECOVERS AFTER WEAK OPEN ... Link for todays video. The markets are a bit jittery on Wednesday, but US technology stocks are holding up rather well and showing some buying interest. Sharp declines in the Euro and European equities put investors on edge Wednesday. Oil was also trading lower, while...   READ MORE 

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QQQ HITS RESISTANCE, BUT HOLDS THE WEDGE -- APPLE BREAKS 50-DAY AS AMZN TESTS SUPPORT -- FDN, IGN AND SMH NEAR KEY SUPPORT LEVELS -- EURO FALLS AFTER CYPRUS DEAL -- ITALIAN, FRENCH AND SPANISH STOCKS GIVE UP EARLY GAINS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ HITS RESISTANCE AT MARCH HIGH, BUT HOLDS THE WEDGE... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) may be forming a rising wedge, but that wedge is clearly rising and the medium-term trend is up as long as it rises. There are two sides to every trade, a...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES SPDRS GRAB THE LEAD -- CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR EXCEEDS CHANNEL LINE -- EQUAL-WEIGHT SECTOR ETFS OUTPERFORM SECTOR SPDRS -- TECHS AND MATERIALS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- GDX FORMS BEAR WEDGE WITH OVERSOLD BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES SPDRS GRAB THE LEAD... Link for todays video. By far, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) are the top performing sectors SPDRs year-to-date. PerfChart 1 shows XLV and XLP crushing the competition with outperforming exceeding 3%. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is the...   READ MORE 

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WEAK COMMODITIES HURT PRODUCERS LIKE BRAZIL AND CANADA -- THAT'S A SIDE-EFFECT OF A STRONGER U.S. DOLLAR -- WEAK CANADIAN DOLLAR IS PUTTING DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON CANADA ISHARES -- VANGUARD EX-USA STOCK INDEX REMAINS STALLED BELOW 2011 HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BRAZIL AND CANADA ARE UNDERPERFORMING THE U.S.... Last Thursday's message focused on the side-effects of a stronger U.S. dollar. One of the most notable intermarket effects was weaker commodity markets. Another is that a firmer dollar favors U.S. stocks over foreign stocks. I showed a...   READ MORE 

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SPY STALLS WITH A NARROW RANGE DAY -- QQQ AND XLK TURN VOLATILE, BUT HOLD THEIR GAPS -- HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS EXTEND LONG-TERM UPTRENDS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES LEADS AGAIN WITH A NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY STALLS WITH A NARROW RANGE DAY... Link for todays video. The Fed reiterated its intentions to purchase some $85 billion per month of Treasury and mortgage bonds  and the market greeted this news with a yawn. Stocks were already up heading into the announcement and traded flat afterwards. Chart...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN MARKET WEAKNESS IS BEGINNING TO WEIGH ON OVERBOUGHT US STOCKS -- EMERGING MARKET ISHARES FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS -- EUROPEAN ETF FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE IN HEAVY TRADING -- RISING DOLLAR PUNISHES ENERGY STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKET ISHARES CONTINUE TO DROP ... Last Thursday's message showed emerging markets rolling over to the downside, and warned that might be signalling a pullback in the U.S. That situation has grown worse since then. Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) falling to the lowest level...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND MDY RECOVER AFTER WEAK OPENINGS -- TREASURIES BOUNCE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- EURO HITS KEY RETRACEMENT AND MOVING AVERAGE -- GOLD BOUNCES OFF RANGE SUPPORT -- COPPER BREAKDOWN SIGNALS A CONTINUATION LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND MDY REOVER AFTER WEAK OPENINGS... Link for todays video. Events in Cyprus triggered selling pressure that started with Asian stocks, continued in Europe and extended to the US on the open. The Hang Seng Index ($HSI) fell 2% and the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) fell 2.71%. European equities...   READ MORE 

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CHANNEL LINE MARKS UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 -- COMBINING THE MACD-HISTOGRAM AND THE SIX MONTH CYCLE -- WHY IS THE S&P 500 ETF ALREADY ABOVE ITS 2007 HIGH? -- S&P MIDCAP 400 IS THE ONE TRUE LEADER -- RUSSELL 2000 IS SECOND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHANNEL LINE MARKS UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. There is certainly much ado about the S&P 500 and the 2007 highs these days. In the words of Mickey Blue Eyes, I say fuhgeddaboudit. Thats mob speak for forget about it. Why?...   READ MORE 

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SIDE-EFFECTS OF A STRONGER DOLLAR INCLUDE STOCKS DOING BETTER THAN COMMODITIES -- A STRONGER DOLLAR ALSO FAVORS U.S. OVER FOREIGN STOCKS -- TREASURY BOND YIELD IS RISING FASTER THAN FOREIGN YIELDS WHICH FAVORS DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. DOLLAR APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING... The monthly bars in Chart 1 plot the U.S. Dollar Index since 2001. Two major trends are seen on the chart. The first is the major downtrend in the dollar between 2002 and 2008. During 2008, the USD broke its six-year down...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SALES GROWTH BREAKS THE 1% THRESHOLD -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH IN MARCH -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES FORMS BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN -- RETAIL SPDR AND MV RETAIL ETF LEAD MARCH SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SALES GROWTH BREAKS THE 1% THRESHOLD... Link for todays video. The Commerce Department reported a 1.1% rise in February retail sales and the January number was revised higher. This better-than-expected number put retail sales growth above 1% for the first time since September. Chart 1 shows an area...   READ MORE 

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DROP IN EMERGING MARKETS MAY BE SIGNALLING MARKET PULLBACK -- EAFE ISHARES ARE ALSO STALLING AT THEIR 2012 PEAK AND ARE LOSING UPSIDE MOMENTUM -- THE S&P 500 HAS COME WITHIN FIVE POINT OF ITS 2007 TOP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKET ISHARES ARE SLIPPING ... While an overbought S&P 500 is nearing a test of its 2007 high, emerging markets are starting to run into potential trouble around their 2012 highs. Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) falling back below their 2012 high after moving above it...   READ MORE 

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SPY HOLDS THE GAP WITH ANOTHER NEW HIGH -- REVISITING AROON FOR MDY AND IWM -- NETWORKING ETF AND SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR BREAK WEDGE RESISTANCE -- NET NEW HIGHS SURGE YET AGAIN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY HOLDS THE GAP WITH ANOTHER NEW HIGH... Link for todays video. You will often here trend-followers say, "a trend in motion stays in motion". This implies that the trend extends until proven otherwise. The current uptrend in stocks is clearly a trend that is staying in motion....   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES ON POSITIVE JOBS REPORT -- 7-10 YR TREASURY BOND ETF TESTS MAJOR SUPPORT LINE -- NON-FARM PAYROLLS EXCEED 200,000 FOR THIRD TIME IN FOUR MONTHS -- SPOT LIGHT CRUDE HITS KEY RETRACEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES ON POSITIVE JOBS REPORT... Link for todays video. Treasury bonds got hammered and treasury yields surged on the heels of today's employment report. The February surge in non-farm payrolls takes some pressure off the Fed for quantitative easing because the unemployment rate fell to...   READ MORE 

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DOW INDUSTRIALS JOIN TRANSPORTS IN RECORD TERRITORY -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 2000-2007 HIGH -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE INDEXES HAVE ALREADY HIT NEW HIGHS -- SO HAS THE S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF WHICH GIVES BIGGER WEIGHT TO SMALLER STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW INDUSTRIALS JOIN TRANSPORTS AT RECORD HIGHS... The ability of the Dow Industrials to rise above its 2007 high to reach a new record is certainly a positive development for the stock market's long-term trend. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Industrials trading above their...   READ MORE 

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MDY AND IWM CHALLENGE THEIR FEBRUARY HIGHS -- ALL FOUR OFFENSIVE SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS FOR 2013 -- XLK GAPS AND BREAKS ABOVE FEBRUARY HIGHS -- AD LINES HIT NEW HIGHS TO CONFIRM UNDERLYING STRENGTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MDY AND IWM CHALLENGE THEIR FEBRUARY HIGHS... Link for todays video. Despite signs of waning upside momentum, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) held support and surged back to their February highs. Chart 1 shows IWM bouncing off the 89 area with a six...   READ MORE 

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AROON INDICATORS TURN BEARISH FOR IWM AND MDY -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ETF BATTLES KEY RETRACEMENTS -- RETAIL SPDR FORMS WEDGE AFTER SUPPORT BOUNCE -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TUMBLES OVER 3.5% -- STEEL, COPPER MINERS AND COAL ETFS GET SLAMMED AGAIN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AROON INDICATORS TURN BEARISH FOR IWM AND MDY... Link for todays video. Despite concerns that stocks are ripe for a correction, we have yet to see medium-term support breaks that would signal the start of these corrections. We are, however, starting to see some momentum indicators turn and short-term bearish...   READ MORE 

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DIA FALLS AFTER FORMING SHOOTING-STAR -- CCI BREAKDOWN COULD SIGNAL AN EMERGING DOWNTREND IN SPY -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS LEAD IN FEBRUARY AND OFFENSIVE SECTORS LAG -- DOLLAR ETF SURGES TO SIX MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA FALLS AFTER FORMING SHOOTING-STAR... Link for todays video. The Dow SPDR (DIA) was the strongest of the major index ETFs this week, but that did not stop the parade of bearish candlestick patterns. DIA was the only major index ETF to record a new high this week. The S&...   READ MORE 

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THE BULL MARKET IN GOLD MAY BE OVER -- LONG-TERM TECHNICAL INDICATORS WEAKEN -- A STRONG DOLLAR, STRONGER STOCKS, AND WEAK GOLD MINERS ARE ALSO BAD FOR GOLD -- LONG-TERM RATIO ANALYSIS FAVORS STOCKS OVER COMMODITIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONG-TERM INDICATORS ARE ROLLING OVER... A lot of traders and investors are waiting for the bull market in gold to resume. They may have a very long wait. That's because a lot of traditional chart, technical, and intermarket signs are now working against gold. Let's start...   READ MORE 

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DOW RECAPTURES 14000 WITH TWO-DAY SURGE -- MDY AND IWM AFFIRM MEDIUM-TERM SUPPORT LEVELS -- ITB AND XLY LEAD REBOUND BY ERASING MONDAYS PLUNGE -- TREASURIES RETREAT, BUT BREAKOUT HOLDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW RECAPTURES 14000 WITH TWO-DAY SURGE... Link for todays video. After breaking below 13800 with a plunge on Monday, the Dow surged back above 14000 with a surge over the last two days. It has been a wild ride the last six trading days with the Dow moving over 100...   READ MORE 

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DOW DIGESTS GAINS AS SUPPLY AND DEMAND EQUALIZE -- JUST A SHORT PULLBACK OR MORE FOR THE S&P 500 EW INDEX -- PRICE RELATIVE BREAKS SUPPORT FOR RETAIL SPDR -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR REFUSES TO BUCKLE -- KEY SUPPORTS FOR INTERNET, NETWORKING AND SEMICONDUCTOR ETFS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW DIGESTS GAINS AS BUYING AND SELLING PRESSURE EQUALIZE... Link for todays video. There are two ways to alleviate overbought conditions: correct with a pullback in prices or consolidate with a trading range. The Dow may be taking the latter road with a consolidation in the 13800-14000 area. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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CORRECTION: NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX IS STILL UP BUT REMAINS IN OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY -- FRIDAY'S PRICE GAIN CAME ON VERY LIGHT VOLUME -- CONSUMER STAPLES WERE WEEK'S TOP SECTOR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX IS STILL UP... My Thursday Market Message incorrectly stated that the NYSE Bullish Percent Index had turned down. Unfortunately, the chart I showed was the point & figure chart of the NYSE Composite Index which did turn down. Chart 1 shows that happening this week when...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR STARTS TO UNDERPERFORM -- AUTO INDEX NEARS FIRST RETRACEMENT -- TREASURY YIELDS HOLD THE KEY TO THE STOCK MARKET -- GOLD NEARS SUPPORT FROM LONG-TERM TRADING RANGE -- SOYBEANS INDEX FORMS BULLISH REVERSAL PATTERN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR STARTS TO UNDERPERFORM... Link for todays video. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is perhaps the most important of the nine sectors SPDRs because it is closely tied to the economy. Note that the housing, retail, restaurant and automobile industries are part of the consumer discretionary sector. Chartists...   READ MORE 

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MONEY ROTATES OUT OF MATERIALS AND INTO CONSUMER STAPLES -- DOW MEETS HEAVY SELLING NEAR 14000 AS MARKET ENTERS DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- RISING DOLLAR PUNISHES COMMODITIES -- DROP IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES SHOWS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE ROTATION ... Sector rotation often gives clues about the mood of the market. This week's sector trends suggest a more defensive mood. Chart 1, for example, shows the Materials SPDR (XLB) tumbling below its 50-day average over the last two days -- and on very heavy volume. The...   READ MORE 

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EXTENDING THE RAFF REGRESSION CHANNELS FOR MDY AND IWM -- XLB BREAKS SUPPORT AND SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- XME, COPX AND SLX WEIGH ON MATERIALS SECTOR -- COPPER ETN BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT -- ITB FAILS TO CONFIRM NEW HIGH IN SPY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EXTENDING THE RAFF REGRESSION CHANNELS FOR MDY AND IWM... Link for todays video. Last week I featured the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) with Raff Regression Channels. Both ETFs moved to new highs on Tuesday and this means the Raff Regression Channels need...   READ MORE 

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QQQ HOLDS BREAKOUT WITH SMALLER CONSOLIDATION -- RSI FAILURE SWINGS TAKE SHAPE IN XLY, SPY, XHB AND IGN -- BULLISH PERCENT INDEX LAGS THE DOW INDUSTRIALS -- LIGHT CRUDE AND BRENT CRUDE FALL SHARPLY -- FALLING FLAGS FORM IN THREE EMERGING MARKET ETFS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ HOLDS BREAKOUT WITH SMALLER CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. Last week I wrote about narrowing Bollinger Bands in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the ETF broke above the upper band with a close above 68 last Thursday. This move looked significant because QQQ also broke out of a...   READ MORE 

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2013 SECTOR LEADERS ARE ENERGY AND FINANCIALS -- THEIR ETFS HAVE ACHIEVED BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- FINANCIAL LEADERS INCLUDE AMERICAN EXPRESS, GOLDMAN SACHS, AND JP MORGAN -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF NEARS 10-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SECTOR LEADERS YEAR TO DATE... Chart 1 plots relative strength ratios of the energy, financial, and industrial sectors versus the S&P 500 (the black zero line). Those three sectors have been the top performers year to date. Technology has been the weakest (on a relative basis). Let'...   READ MORE 

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USING RAFF AND AROON TO DEFINE THE UPTRENDS IN MDY AND IWM -- XLI, XLY AND XLF RECORD FRESH NEW HIGHS -- BASIC MATERIALS SPDR STILL SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR CONSOLIDATION IN THE STEEL ETF

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING RAFF AND AROON TO DEFINE THE UPTRENDS IN MDY AND IWM... Link for todays video. The trend is your friend  until the end. While I cannot tell you when these uptrends will end, I can offer a technical approach to define the trend and marking key support. It is...   READ MORE 

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SPY ADVANCES FOR SIX CONSECUTIVE WEEKS -- QQQ LAGS SPY, BUT REMAINS IN UPTREND -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR TESTS RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TREND LINE -- XRT HOLDS CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUT -- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT TO EXTEND DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY ADVANCES FOR SIX CONSECUTIVE WEEKS... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up six consecutive weeks and ten of the last twelve (since mid November). Even though the advance has turned into a grind this year, chart 1 shows SPY continuing to gain ground...   READ MORE 

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QQQ BREAKS ABOVE UPPER BOLLINGER BAND - APPLE BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE AS MICROSOFT FORMS FALLING FLAG -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF EXCEEDS 2012 HIGH -- TAIWAN, TEXAS AND ANALOG LEAD SEMIS HIGHER -- SECTOR PERFORMANCE TURNS A BIT DEFENSIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ BREAKS ABOVE UPPER BOLLINGER BAND... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is making a move on Friday with an early surge above the upper Bollinger Band. Chart 1 shows QQQ trading above its mid January high and exceeding consolidation resistance. This breakout, should it hold, follows...   READ MORE 

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NIKKEI 225 REACHES FOUR YEAR HIGH AS YEN HITS THREE YEAR LOW -- JAPAN ISHARES LAG BEHIND NIKKEI BECAUSE OF FALLING YEN -- WISDOMTREE FUND OFFERS A WAY TO HEDGE JAPANESE STOCKS AGAINST A WEAKER YEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

JAPAN STOCK INDEX REACHES FOUR YEAR HIGH ... Previous messages have written about the strong upturn in Japanese stocks resulting largely from a tumble in the Japanese yen. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Nikkei 225 Index trading above its early 2010 peak to reach the highest level since...   READ MORE 

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USING FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS AND BROKEN RESISTANCE FOR SUPPORT FOR $SPX AND $INDU -- US STEEL LEADS STEEL ETF HIGHER -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE JOINS THE OVERBOUGHT PARADE -- BOLLINGER BAND WIDTH HITS HISTORIC LOW FOR QQQ -- WATCHING THE TOP TEN STOCKS IN QQQ

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS AND BROKEN RESISTANCE TO SET SUPPORT... Link for todays video. With the S&P 500 trading near a 52-week high and in a clear uptrend, trend followers would prefer long positions over short positions. However, the S&P 500 is up over 7% since December...   READ MORE 

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FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND CRUELEST MONTH -- SIX MONTH CYCLE REMAINS BULLISH UNTIL MAY -- PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE TURNED BEARISH TO START THE YEAR -- A GOOD JANUARY REALLY DOES BODE WELL FOR THE YEAR -- SPAIN AND ITALY LEAD EUROPEAN SHARES LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND CRUELEST MONTH... Link for todays video. Historical tendencies and overbought conditions suggest that the market is due for a rest, perhaps even this month. Historically, monthly returns for the S&P 500 are the strongest in December and January, and the weakest in September and...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITY PRICES -- RISING STOCKS ARE ALSO PULLING ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL METALS HIGHER -- AGRICULTURALS ARE LAGGING BEHIND WITH PRECIOUS METALS -- STRONGER STOCK PRICES ARE DIMINISHING THE APPEAL FOR GOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES... My Thursday message showed the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) on the verge of a technical breakdown. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the cash version of the Dollar Index. It too has a bearish look by showing the US Dollar Index threatening...   READ MORE 

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DOW CHALLENGES 14000 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007 -- GLD FORMS RISING WEDGE WITHIN DOWNTREND -- WEEKLY MACD TURNS UP FOR THE COMMODITY INDEX FUND -- BASE METALS BOUNCE AS COPPER BREAKS RESISTANCE -- JOB GROWTH CONTINUES TO TREND POSITIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW CHALLENGES 14000 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007... Link for todays video. The Dow surged around 1% in early trading on Friday and closed in on its next big round number (14000). There is usually nothing special about 14000, but this number is special because the Dow failed at 14000...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR MAY BE ON VERGE OF TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN -- EUROPEAN CURRENCIES RISE WHILE JAPAN TUMBLES -- FALLING JAPANESE YEN GIVES A BIG BOOST TO JAPANESE STOCKS WHICH HAVE BECOME WORLD LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POWERSHARES DOLLAR ETF NEARS 52-WEEK LOW... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) threatening to drop below its fourth quarter lows, which would put the UUP at the lowest level in more than a year. That would be a bearish turn for the dollar and would...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS LEAD PULLBACK AFTER FED STATEMENT -- SPY FORMS HARAMI TO SIGNAL INDECISION -- QQQ AND XLK HOLD SUPPORT AFTER APPLE DEBACLE -- RATES AT THE SHORT END ARE ALSO TURNING UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LEAD PULLBACK AFTER FED STATEMENT... Link for todays video. The Fed has come and gone without much fanfare or policy change. Stocks were treading water leading into the statement and then sold off afterwards. Selling was not that intense and I would not read too much into this sell...   READ MORE 

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WEAKNESS IN A HANDFUL OF BIG TECHNOLOGY STOCKS (LIKE APPLE) MASKS MUCH BROADER NASDAQ STRENGTH -- NASDAQ LEADERS INCLUDE CISCO, EBAY, GOOGLE, ORACLE, AND YAHOO -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF EXCEEDS SEPTEMBER HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ MARKET SHOWS SHORT-TERM NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... The only major stock index that has yet to exceed its 2012 high is the Nasdaq Composite. Chart 1 shows the COMPQ still trading below its September high. Of more concern is the fact that the Nasdaq has been underperforming the S&P...   READ MORE