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NEW TREND EMERGING SIGNAL FROM CCI -- S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF BREAKS FLAG SUPPORT -- NETWORKING AND INTERNET ETFS LEAD TECHS LOWER -- FINANCE SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- US DOLLAR INDEX HOLDS ABOVE FEBRUARY LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NEW TREND EMERGING SIGNAL FROM CCI... Link for todays video. Before getting too bearish on the stock market, keep in mind that the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has yet to break its late September low and is just 2% below its 52-week high. In other words, this decline...   READ MORE 

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TECHNICAL RANK FOR QQQ BREAKS BELOW 50 -- IWM BATTLES TO HOLD BREAKOUT -- SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR FORMS TWO HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS -- OIL FALLS BACK BELOW $90 -- ENERGY SPDR FORMS BEARISH PENNANT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNICAL RANK FOR QQQ BREAKS BELOW 50... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke their spring highs in August-September and these are the first levels to watch for signs of a trend reversal. Chart 1 shows QQQ breaking resistance around 68...   READ MORE 

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DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP SHOWS INVESTORS ARE STILL IN DEFENSIVE MOOD -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN SMALL CAPS AND TECHNOLOGY IS A SHORT-TERM WARNING SIGN -- SO IS THE DOWNTURN IN APPLE SHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP ... Despite the ability of the U.S. stock market to reach the highest level since 2007, investors still appear to be in a defensive mood. Over the last week, for example, two of the market's strongest groups were healthcare and consumer staples. Charts 1 and 2...   READ MORE 

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TREASURIES DROP AND YIELDS SURGE AFTER EMPLOYMENT DATA -- IWM AND MDY BREAK CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE -- METALS & MINING SPDR BATTLES BREAKOUT -- COPPER ETF BREAKS FLAG RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR PLUNGES AFTER JOBS REPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURIES DROP AND YIELDS SURGE AFTER EMPLOYMENT DATA... Link for todays video. The Labor Department reported that the US economy added 114,000 non-farm payrolls (jobs) in September. Also note that non-farm payrolls for July and August were both revised higher, by around 40,000 jobs each. The unemployment rate...   READ MORE 

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IWM, MDY AND QQQ CONSOLIDATE WITH TIGHT RANGES -- MARKETS TURNED RISK AVERSE IN MID SEPTEMBER -- TREASURY YIELDS, EURO AND STOCKS RISE AND FALL TOGETHER -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CONSOLIDATES BELOW SUPPORT BREAK -- EURO ETF STALLS JUST ABOVE SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM, MDY AND QQQ CONSOLIDATE WITH TIGHT RANGES... Link for todays video. After a sharp decline last week, several of the major index ETFs consolidated with trading ranges the last six days. I am going to look at the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY)...   READ MORE 

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INVESTORS FAVOR BONDS OVER STOCKS DURING 2012 -- CORPORATE BONDS AND TIPS ARE DOING BETTER THAN TREASURIES -- INVESTORS FAVOR CORPORATE BONDS WHEN STOCKS ARE RISING -- QUANTITATIVE EASING HAS ALTERED BOND-STOCK RELATIONSHIP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INVESTORS STILL PREFER BONDS OVER STOCKS... Despite the fact that U.S. stocks have done much better than bonds during 2012, investors still prefer bonds. Mutual fund money flows show that investors have pulled money out of stocks funds and put money into bond funds. That may seem strange considering...   READ MORE 

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CORN SURGES OFF SHALLOW RETRACEMENT -- WHEAT SURGES WITHIN CONSOLIDATION -- COFFEE PERKS UP AND CHALLENGES TREND LINE -- SUGAR BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- THE BEST EUROPEAN INDICATOR EVER -- FXE HITS RESISTANCE NEAR BROKEN SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CORN SURGES OFF SHALLOW RETRACEMENT... Link for todays video. Corn dominated the summer news as the drought of the century grabbed lots of headlines. These headlines have largely faded, but the results of the drought may still linger. Chart 1 shows the Corn Fund (CORN) surging from mid June to...   READ MORE 

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FIVE BIG STOCKS THAT ARE UNDERPERFORMING THIS MONTH -- BROKEN RESISTANCE MARKS FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY -- QQQ UNDERPERFORMS IN SEPTEMBER -- RETAIL SPDRS STARTS TO UNDERPERFORM -- NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE FORMS BEARISH DIVERGENCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FIVE BIG STOCKS THAT ARE UNDERPERFORMING THIS MONTH... Link for todays video. While there is no denying the long-term uptrend, chartists should keep in mind that stocks are up substantially since early June and ripe for some sort of corrective period. A correction can involve a pullback or a consolidation....   READ MORE 

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GOLD NEARS TEST OF ITS FEBRUARY HIGH -- AND CONTINUES TO DRAW SUPPORT FROM A FALLING DOLLAR -- GOLD HAS ALREADY REACHED A RECORD HIGH VERSUS THE EURO AND SWISS FRANC -- AN UPTURN IN THE INDIAN RUPEE IS ALSO HELPING GOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD ISHARES NEAR TEST OF FEBRUARY HIGH... The upturn in gold that started a month ago remains intact. Today's upside gap puts the yellow metal in position to challenge its February high. Odds for an upside breakout look good. Gold has a lot going for it at the...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- NDX PERCENT ABOVE 50-DAY FORMS BEARISH DIVERGENCE -- SURGE IN TREASURY BONDS IS NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS -- WHAT ABOUT THE QE3 EFFECT? -- OIL PLUNGES AS NATURAL GAS SURGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Even though the major index ETFs remain in uptrends overall, relative weakness in small-caps and mid-caps over the last eight days is a concern. Chart 1 shows the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) surging in the first part...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE SHOWS STRENGTH AS INDUSTRIALS SHOW WEAKNESS -- XLI HITS RESISTANCE FROM SPRING HIGHS -- ENERGY BULLISH PERCENT INDEX NEARS ITS MAX -- INDUSTRIALS BULLISH PERCENT INDEX REMAINS IN UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH AS INDUSTRIALS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. Todays market message will focus on sectors and show different ways to measure performance and internal strength for these sectors. First, I will show how to use the Sector PerfChart to compare all nine. Second, I will...   READ MORE 

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UTILITIES SPDR FALLS AS TREASURY YIELDS RISE -- A THROWBACK AND BIG TEST FOR THE STEEL ETF -- OIL FAILS AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- GASOLINE BREAKS RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL -- VIX SHOWS COMPLACENCY, BUT REMAINS BULLISH OVERALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UTILITIES SPDR FALLS AS TREASURY YIELDS RISE... Link for today's video. While the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) trade near 52-week highs, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) trades near its summer lows and remains the weakest of the three defensive sectors. In fact, XLU is the...   READ MORE 

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REGIONAL BANK ETF BREAKS OUT TO THE UPSIDE -- LEADERS ARE WEBSTER FINANCIAL, FIFTH THIRD BANCORP, AND M&T BANK -- BANK SPDR LAGS BEHIND -- BANK LAGGARDS ARE BANK OF AMERICA AND CITIGROUP -- BANKS AND HOMEBUILDERS REMAIN LINKED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

REGIONAL BANK SPDR HITS FOUR YEAR HIGH... Two Thursdays ago I showed the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) testing major overhead resistance along its 2010 high. Chart 1 shows the KRE breaking through that 2010 barrier to reach the highest level in four years (with help from last week's...   READ MORE 

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POINT & FIGURE EDITION -- USING P&F CHARTS ACROSS TIMEFRAMES -- S&P 500 HAS MAJOR SUPPORT AT 1400 -- S&P 500 BREAKS WEDGE TREND LINE ON SHORT-TERM P&F CHART -- OFFENSIVE SECTORS REMAIN IN UPTRENDS AFTER CLEAR BREAKOUTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POINT & FIGURE EDITION - USING P&F CHARTS ACROSS TIMEFRAMES... Link for todays video. Todays Market Message will focus on P&F charts. First, we will look at using different timeframes and box sizes to capture different trends. Second, we will show how to use the percentage...   READ MORE 

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A FIFTH WAVE FOR THE S&P 500 -- BUYING PRESSURE WEAKENS AS LONG UPPER SHADOWS FORM -- BEARISH ENGULFINGS FORM IN RETAIL AND HOMEBUILDING SPDRS -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FAILS TO FOLLOW WALL STREET -- CHINA IS THE ASIAN ANOMALY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A FIFTH WAVE FOR THE S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. Even though some Elliott rules and guidelines dont fit, the advance from the October low to the September high shows a clear five-wave structure. There are three rules for Elliott Wave. First, wave 2 cannot retrace more...   READ MORE 

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QUANTITATIVE EASING AND THE S&P 500 SINCE 2008 -- XME AND SLX SURGE OFF KEY RETRACEMENTS -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF SURGES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER HIGH -- AMAT AND TXN BREAK CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE -- QE3 POINTS TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND LOWER T-BOND PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QUANTITATIVE EASING AND THE S&P 500 SINCE 2008... Link for todays video. Stocks surged on Thursday after the Fed announced another round of quantitative easing. Obviously, the stock market is pleased with the announcement. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 since September 2008 and the yellow...   READ MORE 

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FED COMES THROUGH WITH QE3 -- TREASURY BOND PRICES DROP WITH THE DOLLAR -- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES SOAR -- PRECIOUS METALS LEAD COMMODITY CHARGE -- TREASURY PRICES DROP AS HIGH YIELD BONDS AND TIPS RALLY -- STOCK INDEXES BREAKOUT TO UPSIDE ON RISING VOLUME

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR PLUNGE GIVES BIG BOOST TO COMMODITIES... The Fed announced that it will purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage backed securities which adds to its holdings of long-term securities and ushers in another round of quantitative easing (QE3). The markets have all reacted in predictable fashion. The dollar and...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF BREAKS MARCH HIGHS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ETFS HIT FRESH NEW HIGHS -- RETAIL SPDR HOLDS BREAKOUT -- AIRLINE INDEX AND ETF SURGE OFF SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF BREAKS MARCH HIGHS... Link for todays video. Even though stocks may be short-term overbought after sharp advances this month, the bulls maintain their overall edge as many key ETF trade at or new 52-week highs. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS -- BIG BANKS LEAD FINANCE SECTOR -- RELATIVE STRENGTH LINE TURNS UP -- PNC FINANCIAL, JP MORGAN CHASE AND MORGAN STANLEY BREAK OUT -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TRACES OUT FIVE WAVE DECLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for todays video. Chartists can debate the sustainability of the current rally, but there is no debating the underlying strength in two key sectors. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) both recorded new 52-week highs last week....   READ MORE 

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SURGE IN SHANGHAI COMPOSITE LIFTS MATERIALS SECTOR -- COAL, STEEL AND MINING ETFS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- BASE METALS AND COPPER ETFS BREAK RESISTANCE -- INTEL WEIGHS ON SEMIS WITH SUPPORT BREAK -- SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS STEAL THE SHOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SURGE IN SHANGHAI COMPOSITE LIFTS MATERIALS SECTOR... Link for todays video. Thursdays rally started in Europe, continued in the US and extended to Asia on Friday. In particular, the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) surged over 3% with its biggest one-day move since January. Chart 1 shows the index moving above the...   READ MORE 

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ECB COMMENTS GIVE BIG BOOST TO GLOBAL STOCKS -- -- EUROPEAN SHARES JUMP SHARPLY -- BOND AND DOLLAR WEAKEN -- PRECIOUS METALS CLEAR RESISTANCE BARRIERS -- REGIONAL BANK ETF NEARS NEW FOUR-YEAR HIGH -- THAT WOULD PUT THEM IN SYNC WITH RISING HOMEBUILDERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EUROPEAN STOCKS SURGE ... The market's got what they wanted from the ECB president this morning. Mario Draghi announced an aggressive bond buying program that has given a huge boost to European stocks and other "risk on" assets. Chart 1 shows the Europe 350 iShars (IEV) surging...   READ MORE 

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FEDEX AND UPS WEIGH ON DOW TRANSPORTS -- DOW TRANSPORTS TESTS TRIANGLE TREND LINE -- MEASURING RISK-ON VERSUS RISK-OFF WITH NINE INDICATORS -- TREASURY BOND ETF HITS KEY RETRACEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FEDEX AND UPS WEIGH ON DOW TRANSPORTS ... Link for todays video. FedEx (FDX) is weighing on the Dow Transports after the company lowered guidance for the first quarter. Expectations were already low and FedEx just made them even lower. Unsurprisingly, the company sited weakness in the global economy. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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SPY HOLDS GAINS AND EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION -- US DOLLAR INDEX BREAKS JUNE LOW -- OIL AND GOLD BENEFIT FROM DOLLAR WEAKNESS -- NET NEW HIGHS WEAKEN OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS -- AD VOLUME LINES RUN INTO RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY HOLDS GAINS AND EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION ... Link for todays video. Boy, it is just like a Fed day. Wait, it is a Fed day. Fed Chairman Bernanke finally gave his speech at Jackson Hole and the markets bounced like the silver ball in a pinball machine. The S&P...   READ MORE 

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VOLUME INDICATORS GIVE WARNING SIGNS -- SO DOES THE DOWNTURN IN EMERGING MARKETS -- DOW INDUSTRIALS BACK OFF SPRING HIGH AND FALL TO FOUR-WEEK LOW -- TRANSPORTATION WEAKNESS GIVES DOW THEORY WARNING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ON BALANCE VOLUME LINE NOT KEEPING PACE WITH STOCK RALLY... My Tuesday message expressed the view that if a stock correction were to start, this would be a logical spot for that to happen. That's because several market indexes are testing spring highs, which is a normal spot...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 SHRUGS OFF COPPER, THE VIX AND LOW VOLUME -- RETAILERS KEEP THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR AFLOAT -- NETWORKING AND INTERNET ETFS HOLD THEIR BREAKOUTS -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF RETURNS TO BROKEN RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 SHRUGS OFF COPPER, THE VIX AND LOW VOLUME... Link for todays video. There are plenty of reasons to doubt the current advance in the US stock market. The Shanghai Composite recently hit a 52-week low, copper remains in the doldrums, the CBOE Volatility Index is at...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR CONTINUES TO PUSH GOLD HIGHER -- GLD AND SLV CLEAR 200-DAY AVERAGE -- BOTH ARE TESTING TRENDLINE RESISTANCE -- GDX IS TESTING JUNE HIGH WHILE SIL HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- SILVER WHEATON IS A PRECIOUS METAL LEADER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. DOLLAR REMAINS ON THE DEFENSIVE... The dollar continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares US Dollar Index Fund (UUP) slipping to a three-month low today. It's also threatening its 200-day moving average, and is nearing a test of trendline support drawn under its September, October,...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE SPDR CHALLENGES JULY HIGHS -- XLV UNDERPERFORMS ON RELATIVE BASIS, BUT OUTPERFORMS ON CHART -- UTILITIES SPDR BECOMES VERY OVERSOLD -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE AND S&P 500 CONTINUE SEPARATE WAYS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SPDR CHALLENGES JULY HIGHS... Link for todays video. The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is showing relative strength on the price chart with a challenge to the July highs. Chart 1 shows XLV surging above 38.75 in late July and then consolidating for the last three weeks. With another surge...   READ MORE 

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DOW BACKS OFF RESISTANCE AND NASDAQ STALLS -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS UNDERMINES IWM AND MDY BREAKOUTS -- RISING WEDGES TAKE SHAPE IN XRT AND KRE -- OIL AND OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT/SERVICES SPDR HIT KEY RETRACEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW BACKS OFF RESISTANCE AND NASDAQ STALLS ... Link for todays video. After a sharp advance the past 12 weeks, stocks took a breather this week. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 advanced nine of the last twelve weeks and the index is up some 11% from its...   READ MORE 

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OUTSIDE REVERSAL DAYS INCREASE CHANCES FOR PULLBACK -- USING ELDER IMPULSE AND STOCHRSI TO TIME A PULLBACK -- COAL, STEEL AND METALS-MINING ETFS STALL AT RESISTANCE -- SILVER ETF BREAKS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OUTSIDE REVERSAL DAYS INCREASE CHANCES FOR PULLBACK... Link for todays video. Stocks reversed course during the day on Tuesday with many stocks and ETFs forming reversal days, which go by various names. In candlestick lingo, the charts were littered with bearish engulfing patterns. In bar chart lingo, there were several...   READ MORE 

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INTERMARKET TRENDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE -- RISING BOND YIELD SUPPORTS STOCK RALLY -- SO DOES RISING EURO -- EUROPEAN STOCKS RALLY -- SO DOES CANADA WHICH IS BEING HELPED BY RISING COMMODITIES -- GOLD AND MINING SHARES MAY BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UPTURN IN BOND YIELD AND DOWNTURN IN BOND PRICE SHOW MORE OPTIMISM... This is the same headline that started my last Market Message two Tuesdays ago (August 7). It's even more true today than it was then. A couple of weeks back, the 10-Year T-Note Yield had just...   READ MORE 

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OVERBOUGHT DIA AND QQQ ARE VULNERABLE TO CORRECTION -- TREASURY BOND ETFS BECOME SERIOUSLY OVERSOLD -- DOLLAR FIRMS WITHIN FALLING WEDGE PATTERN -- MEASURING THE 10YR-2YR SPREAD -- STEEPENING YIELD CURVE REFLECTS GROWING CONFIDENCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT DIA AND QQQ ARE VULNERABLE TO CORRECTION... Link for todays video. The major index ETFs are in medium-term uptrends, but have become short-term overbought and vulnerable to a correction or consolidation. There are two ways to work off overbought conditions: trade sideways or pullback. Sometimes we see a combination...   READ MORE 

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S&P 100 HITS NEW HIGH ON LOW VOLUME -- SMALL AND MID-CAPS PERK UP -- STILL WAITING ON COPPER AND INDUSTRIAL METALS TO BREAK OUT -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE ESTABLISHES KEY RESISTANCE -- ALL-ORDS, KOSPI AND SENSEX LEAD ASIA HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 100 HITS NEW HIGH ON LOW VOLUME... Link for todays video. The S&P 100 continues to lead the major indices with a break above its spring highs. Chart 1 shows $OEX surging some 12% since early June and exceeding 650 this week. Even though the...   READ MORE 

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SPY CONSOLIDATES NEAR APRIL HIGHS -- RUSSELL 2000 ETF FORMS TRIANGLE AND POSSIBLE RIGHT SHOULDER -- RISING WEDGE IN XLY DEFINES CURRENT UPTREND -- BULLISH WAVE COUNT SUGGEST FIFTH WAVE ADVANCE FOR XLF -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR HOLDS WEDGE BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY CONSOLIDATES NEAR APRIL HIGHS... Link for todays video. Stocks stalled over the last several days, but this is not necessarily a sign of weakness. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moving above 140 on August 7th and then moving into a relatively tight consolidation. Ones...   READ MORE 

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S&P 100 CHALLENGES SPRING HIGH -- PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY SURGES -- NY AD LINE HITS NEW HIGH -- SILVER TESTS SUPPORT FROM 2011 LOWS -- GOLD EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION AS BANDWIDTH NARROWS -- DOLLAR CORRECTS, BUT REMAINS IN UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 100 CHALLENGES SPRING HIGHS... Link for todays video. S&P 100 is leading the market as it challenges its prior highs. Chart 1 shows the index hitting 645, which marks resistance from the April high. Given the strength of this uptrend, I would not consider the...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 NEAR SPRING HIGHS -- TECHNOLOGY SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ON TWO TIMEFRAMES -- BROKEN RESISTANCE TURNS FIRST SUPPORT FOR XLK -- KBW BANK INDEX SPDR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- RETAIL SPDR BREAKS CHANNEL RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND S&P 500 NEAR SPRING HIGHS... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 continue to lead the market higher as they close in on their spring highs. Both are within 2% of their all time highs. The medium-term trends turned bullish with...   READ MORE 

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UPTURN IN BOND YIELD AND DOWNTURN IN PRICE SHOW MORE OPTIMISM -- SO DO RISING EURO AND WEAKER DOLLAR -- YEN WEAKENS AS MONEY FLOWS INTO AUSSIE AND CANADIAN DOLLARS -- CANADA ISHARES CLEAR 200-DAY AVERAGE -- FOREIGN STOCK BENCHMARKS TURN UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BONDS BREAK 50-DAY AVERAGE... For the first time in four months, bond yields are rising and bond prices falling. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note YIeld (TNX) trading above its 50-day average for the first time since early April. At the same time, the 20+Year Treasury Bond iShares (TLT)...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 ETF SURGES OFF 200-DAY FOR SECOND TIME -- NASDAQ 100 ETF BREAKS ASCENDING TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- FINANCE, CONSUMER DISC. AND SEMI ETFS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE -- 20+ YEAR T-BOND ETF BREAKS FLAG SUPPORT ON STRONG JOBS NUMBER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ETF SURGES OFF 200-DAY FOR SECOND TIME... Link for todays video. Stocks surged as the jobs number and ISM Services Index exceeded expectations. The Labor Department reported that the US economy added 163,000 jobs in July. This number was above the expectations for 100,000 and the...   READ MORE 

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WORLD STOCK INDEX PEAKED IN 2011 -- CANADA SHOWS BIG DIVERGENCE WITH U.S. -- ECB INACTION PUSHES EURO AND EMU STOCKS LOWER -- S&P 500 REMAINS ABOVE SUPPORT BUT WITH WEAKER MOMENTUM

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WORLD STOCK INDEX PEAKED IN 2011... My earlier message showed a rotation out of small cap stocks into mega-caps in the middle of 2011 which continues to this day. That suggests that investors have been growing increasingly defensive over the last year. Chart 1 provides graphic evidence that global stocks...   READ MORE 

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SPY CONTINUES TO STALL AT HIGH LEVELS -- S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF SHOWS SERIOUS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- DOW TRANSPORTS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER -- UPS AND FEDEX WEIGH ON PRICE-WEIGHTED AVERAGE -- EURO STALLS AFTER SHORT SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY EXTENDS HIGH LEVEL STALL... Link for todays video. The Fed came and went, but stocks did not react much. There was a little volatility around announcement time, but stocks settled back into their narrow ranges of the last three days. In its policy statement, the Fed noted that economic...   READ MORE 

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SPY EXTENDS UPTREND AND ESTABLISHES KEY SUPPORT -- IWM FAILS TO CONFIRM HIGHER HIGH IN SPY -- XLF AND XLY BATTLE RESISTANCE -- QQQ AND SMH CHALLENGE JULY HIGHS -- NYSE AD LINE AND NET NEW HIGHS REMAIN STRONG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY EXTENDS UPTREND AND ESTABLISHES KEY SUPPORT... Link for todays video. It is likely to be a big event-driven week for the market. In addition to over a dozen economic reports, the Fed makes its policy statement on Tuesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday. The week...   READ MORE