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SETTING SUMMER TARGETS FOR THE DOW AND NASDAQ -- XLY AND XLK REVERSE AT CHANNEL TRENDLINES -- XLI AND XLF SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS NOT IMMUNE, BUT SHOULD HOLD UP BETTER -- LONG-TERM MOMENTUM TURNS NEGATIVE FOR ALL ORDS AND HANG SENG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SETTING SUMMER TARGETS FOR THE DOW AND NASDAQ ... Link for todays video. As outlined in market messages since mid May, the major stock indices have broken key support levels and several breadth indicators have turned bearish. The bulk of the evidence clearly shifted from bullish to bearish over the last...   READ MORE 

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RISING DOLLAR KEEPS COMMODITIES UNDER PRESSURE -- EURO AND GOLD ARE TESTING SUPPORT LEVELS TOGETHER -- RALLY ATTEMPT IN S&P 500 FADES -- FOREIGN STOCKS STILL IN 2012 DOWNTRENDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE... Selling in foreign currencies is giving a continuing boost to the U.S. Dollar. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (DBC) climbing to the highest level in four months. The UUP recently cleared its mid-March intra-day peak at 22.47. The...   READ MORE 

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STEEL, COAL, OIL SERVICES AND NETWORKING ETFS LEAD OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- DOW INDUSTRIALS SPDR FIRMS WITH INSIDE DAY -- PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE 50-DAY PLUNGES TO BEAR LEVELS WEEKLY AROON AND MACD TURN BEARISH FOR IWM AND SPY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STEEL, COAL, OIL SERVICES AND NETWORKING ETFS LEAD OVERSOLD BOUNCE ... Link for todays video. The bulls found their footing on Monday as stocks bounced from oversold levels. The hardest hit groups bounced the most as the Networking iShares (IGN), Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), Oil & Gas Equipment/Services SPDR...   READ MORE 

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U.S. STOCK INDEXES THREATEN 200-DAY LINES -- FOREIGN STOCK INDEXES HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THEIRS AND MAY BE TRACING OUT HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOPS -- TEST OF 2011 LOWS WILL BE CRUCIAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE... The slide in stocks continued this week to the point that some key support levels are about to be tested. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 bearing down on its October high (1292) and its 200-day moving average (red...   READ MORE 

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STOCK BULLS KNOCKED DOWN WITH A BIG BEAR PUNCH -- A VOLATILE BASING PERIODS COULD BE IN THE CARDS -- SETTING SPY VOLUME AND PRICE TARGETS FOR A SELLING CLIMAX -- IS GOLD POISED TO JOIN THE SAFE-HAVEN TRADE? -- GLD HITS SUPPORT FROM DECEMBER LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK MARKET BULLS KNOCKED DOWN WITH A BIG BEAR PUNCH... Link for todays video. The decline in stocks accelerated this week with the major index ETFs and some key sector SPDRs breaking clear support levels. This could be the beginning of the end, or it could simply be the middle...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SPDR ON THE VERGE OF TREND REVERSAL -- RETAIL SPDR TRACES OUT DOUBLE TOP -- ON BALANCE VOLUME MOVES SHARPLY LOWER FOR XLY -- HOME BUILDERS AND REITS CONTINUE SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- COMMODITIES AND BIG EMERGING MARKETS FALLING TOGETHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SPDR ON THE VERGE OF TREND REVERSAL ... Link for todays video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) broke an important support level last week and is on the verge of breaking another this week. I first marked key support at the February-March lows in the market message on April 18th and...   READ MORE 

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CRB INDEX BREAKDOWN HURTS STOCKS -- DOLLAR SURGES AS EURO TUMBLES TO FOUR-MONTH LOW -- FOREIGN STOCKS WEAKNESS IS WEIGHING ON U.S. STOCKS -- A RISING DOLLAR, HOWEVER, STILL MAKES U.S. ASSETS A SAFER PLACE TO BE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRB BREAKDOWN HURTS STOCKS ... Last Tueday's message showed the CRB Index in the process of testing its lows formed during the second half of 2011, and warned that commodity weakness was starting to hurt stock values. Since then, the CRB has plunged to the lowest level in 20...   READ MORE 

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DOW BREAKS KEY SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE -- TREASURIES SURGE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- US DOLLAR FUND BREAKS APRIL HIGH -- GERMAN BUND ETF SURGES AS ITALIAN BOND ETF MOVES LOWER -- EUROPEAN STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER WITH SPAIN LEADING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW BREAKS KEY SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE... Link for todays video. The risk-off was in full force early Monday. Treasuries and the Dollar moved sharply higher as stocks, gold, the Euro and oil moved sharply lower. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials breaking below its March-April lows with a sharp...   READ MORE 

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S&P MIDCAP 400 AND S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX BATTLE SUPPORT -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS LEADING MARKET SINCE APRIL -- AD VOLUME LINES BREAK KEY SUPPORT LEVELS -- NET NEW HIGHS LINES REMAIN BULLISH OVERALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P MIDCAP 400 AND S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX BATTLE SUPPORT... Link for todays video. After sharp declines last week, stocks turned mixed this week and several indices are firming near key support levels. I have been writing about support from the March-April lows for a...   READ MORE 

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THE DOLLAR INDEX MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF BOTTOMING -- INTERMARKET IMPLICATIONS RESULTING FROM A STRONGER DOLLAR INCLUDE WEAKER COMMODITY PRICES -- A FIRMER DOLLAR MAKES U.S. STOCKS MORE ATTRACTIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INTERMARKET IMPLICATIONS OF A STRONGER DOLLAR... The monthy bars in Chart 1 suggest that the U.S. Dollar Index may be going through a major bottoming process. After peaking during 2002, the USD fell steadily until 2008 when it bottomed. Since then, it has been trending sideways in what appears...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 TESTS APRIL LOWS -- EUROPEAN TOP 100 INDEX BREAKS WEDGE TRENDLINE -- LESS THAN 50% OF $NDX AND $SPX STOCKS ARE ABOVE THEIR 50-DAY SMAS -- COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX MOVES BELOW -200 FOR GLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 TESTS OFF APRIL LOWS ... Link for todays video. With a sharp decline the last few days, chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials testing its April lows and key support in the 12700 area. A break below these lows would forge a lower trough and argue for...   READ MORE 

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MARKET RESUMES SELLING -- RETAILERS GET MARKED DOWN -- DOLLAR BOUNCE KEEPS PRESSURE ON COMMODITIES -- GOLD TUMBLES AS EURO BREAKS SUPPORT -- TREASURIES CONTINUE TO RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAILERS GET DISCOUNTED... Selling has resumed in stocks this morning. The biggest percentage losses are appearing in consumer discretionary stocks, and retailers in particular. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) falling below its 50-day line for the first time this year. That had been one of the market&...   READ MORE 

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USING TRIX AND AROON FOR IDENTIFY THE LONG-TERM TREND -- FINANCE SPDR FIRMS NEAR APRIL LOWS -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR FORMS TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION -- RETAIL SPDR FORMS WEEKLY DARK CLOUD PATTERN -- DOLLAR BULLISH ETF BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM TRENDLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING TRIX AND AROON FOR IDENTIFY THE LONG-TERM TREND... Link for todays video. A few months ago I featured a simple trend identification system using the 18-week Aroon oscillators and the Trix oscillator (10,6). You can read more about both indicators in our ChartSchool. Aroon is a directional indicator...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ LEADS REST OF MARKET LOWER -- A DEEPER CORRECTION NOW APPEARS LIKELY -- WEAK COMMODITIES ALSO WEIGH ON STOCKS AS BONDS RALLY -- YEN RALLIES AS AUSSIE DOLLAR WEAKENS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS INDEXES WEAKEN ON RISING VOLUME... It looks like traders and investors took the "sell in May" mantra seriously this week. Stocks fell sharply after Friday morning's weak April jobs report was released. The worst performance came in the Power Shares QQQ Trust which led the...   READ MORE 

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QQQ FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT AS CCI TURNS NEGATIVE -- IWM KEEPS HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERN ALIVE -- TREASURIES MOVE HIGHER AS STOCKS MOVE LOWER -- OIL BREAKS RISING WEDGE SUPPORT -- ENERGY SPDR FAILS AT KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT AS CCI TURNS NEGATIVE... Link for todays video. Stocks fell after the employment report showed non-farm payrolls increasing just 115,000, which was below expectations. Todays report caps a week of less-than-stellar economic reports. While I would not consider this weeks economic reports bad, they...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LEADS SECTORS HIGHER -- JUNK BOND ETFS HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS -- TREASURY BOND ETF STALLS AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- DOLLAR BULLISH ETF BOUNCES OFF FEBRUARY LOW -- EURO ETF KEEPS DESCENDING TRIANGLE ALIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LEADS SECTORS HIGHER... Link for todays video. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is the only sector SPDR to hit a 52-week high this week. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) and the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) are close to new 52-week highs, but have yet to actually break out....   READ MORE 

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DOW INDUSTRIALS EXCEED 2008 PEAK -- DOW TRANSPORTS RIDE THE RAILS HIGHER -- KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN REACHES NEW RECORD -- S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF NEW SUPPORT -- BOND PRICES TURN DOWN AS STOCKS RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW INDUSTRIALS EXCEED 2008 HIGH... With stocks ralling nicely today, the Dow Industrials are the first to reach a new 52-week high. Chart 1 shows the Dow trading above its spring highs to resume its major uptrend. The weekly bars in Chart 2 also show the Dow moving above its...   READ MORE 

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NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR THE TRANSPORT ISHARES -- GOLD FOLLOWS STOCK MARKET AND BREAKS WEDGE TRENDLINE -- US DOLLAR FUND BREAKS DIAMOND SUPPORT -- NASDAQ AND NYSE AD VOLUME LINES ESTABLISH KEY SUPPORT -- NET NEW HIGHS SURGE AND REMAIN BULLISH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR THE TRANSPORT ISHARES ... Link for todays video. While the S&P 500 and Dow zoomed to new highs on April 2nd, the Dow Transports and Transport iShares (IYT) fell short and continue to underperform. Even though we have yet to see a break down or trend...   READ MORE 

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COUNT OR NO COUNT, THE UP TREND HOLDS THE TRUMP CARDS -- LONG-TERM WAVE COUNT SHOWS LARGE EXPANDING TRIANGLE FOR $SPX -- ALTERNATIVE COUNT SUGGEST NEW BULL MARKET -- OCTOBER-MARCH ADVANCE LOOKS LIKE WAVE 3 OF WAVE V

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COUNT OR NO COUNT, THE TREND HOLDS THE TRUMP CARDS... Link for todays video. There have been a few requests for an Elliott Wave count so this will be the Elliott Wave edition. This is opening Pandoras box because alternative counts and trading biases often come into play when making...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER -- SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS LEAD TECHNOLOGY REBOUND LED BY XILINX AND KLAC -- AMGEN RESUMES UPTREND WHILE WAL-MART TUMBLES -- STOCK INDEXES CLEAR APRIL HIGHS TO STRENGTHEN MARKET'S SHORT-TERM TREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHIP STOCKS HELP POWER QQQ ADVANCE ... The technology-dominated Nasdaq continues to help lead the rest of the market out of its recent downside correction. The daily bars in Chart 1 show yesterday's upside gap in the Power Shares QQQ Trust following a downside gap just two days earlier....   READ MORE 

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DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 ETFS BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- QQQ AND XLK CHALLENGE FLAG TRENDLINES -- APPLE TRADES SHARES OUTSTANDING IN 40 DAYS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CONSOLIDATES WITH PENNANT -- TREASURIES PULL BACK AFTER FED STATEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 ETFS BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT... Link for todays video. The Fed voted to maintain the course and keep rates unchanged, which was hardly a surprise. To paraphrase from its policy statement, the Fed said it expects economic growth to remain moderate for a few quarters and then...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MID CAPS LEAD STOCK MARKET LOWER -- MATERIALS SECTOR LEADS SECTOR SPDRS LOWER -- DOLLAR BOUNCES OFF DIAMOND SUPPORT LINE -- BEAR FLAG TAKES SHAPE IN OIL ETF -- GERMAN STOCK INDEX BREAKS MARCH LOWS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID CAPS LEAD STOCK MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks move sharply lower in early trading on Monday with the Russell 2000 ($RUT) and the Nasdaq leading the way. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 breaking flag support with a weak open and decline below 790 early...   READ MORE 

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SECTOR ROTATION SHOW MONEY MOVING OUT OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTO DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- APPLE WEAKNESS CONTRIBUTES TO NASDAQ SLIDE WHICH IS TESTING ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SEMICONDUCTORS ALSO WEAKEN -- WALGREEN AND WALMART ARE STAPLE LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE SECTOR ROTATION ... One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface. Chart 1 shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive. The four sector lines...   READ MORE 

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HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS TAKING SHAPE IN DIA, XLI AND MDY -- CUMULATIVE NET NEW HIGHS LINES HOLDING UP -- US DOLLAR FUND EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION AS EURO FIRMS -- GOLD REMAINS IN DOWNTREND WITH FALLING WEDGE -- SILVER TRUST CONSOLIDATES WITHIN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS TAKING SHAPE IN DIA, XLI AND MDY... Link for todays video. Wednesday I noted that the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed rising flag patterns after the sharp April decline. Taking a look at price action since early February, it is also possible that...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND DIA FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS -- USING THE SLOPE TO DETERMINE THE TREND -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- FINANCE AND INDUSTRIALS SPDRS SHOW WEAKER UPTRENDS -- MATERIALS AND ENERGY SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND DIA FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS... Link for todays video. After a sharp decline in early April, stocks bounced the last 5-6 days with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) leading the major index ETFs. These bounces traced out patterns that look like rising flags,...   READ MORE 

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APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD NASDAQ 100 ETF LOWER -- MARCH LOWS MARK FIRST SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT LEVEL -- SMALL AND MID CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM -- SPANISH AND ITALIAN STOCKS BREAK DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD NASDAQ 100 ETF LOWER... Link for todays video. Tech stocks moved sharply lower in early trading on Friday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) declining over 1%. Chart 1 shows QQQ moving below 66 with its sharpest decline since December. The first support zone to watch...   READ MORE 

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KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN LEADS STRONG TRANSPORTATION RALLY -- DOW INDUSTRIALS TRY TO REGAIN 50-DAY LINE -- BOUNCE IN CHINESE STOCKS BOOSTS GLOBAL STOCKS -- CANADIAN DOLLAR AND COMMODITY ETF BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES TOGETHER -- GOLD MAY BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANPORTS LEAD STOCK RALLY ... Tuesday's message showed a number of stock indexes testing initial support at their early March low, which is the first line of chart support during the current market pullback. Most of those indexes have either bounced off that initial support level or have climbed...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS PLUNGE AS TREASURIES LEAP -- JUNK BONDS CORRECT WITH STOCKS -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCKS ARE PULLING S&P 500 BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- ENERGY AND BASIC MATERIAL ETFS WEAKEN WITH COMMODITIES -- FOREIGN STOCKS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN U.S.

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD PLUNGES AS BOND PRICES JUMP... The weak job reports from last Friday is having a bearish impact on stocks (as expected), but a bullish effect on bonds. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) gapping down sharply on Monday to fall back below its 50-day moving...   READ MORE 

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WEAK JOBS REPORT WEAKENS STOCK FUTURES AND INCREASES LIKELIHOOD FOR MARKET CORRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK FUTURES WEAKEN ON FRIDAY... A disappointing jobs report on Friday caused U.S. stock index futures to fall 1%. My Thursday message wrote about the likelihood for a market correction. That was based on the fact that stocks are overbought, the tendency for the seasonal trend to start weakening...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN SELLING INCREASES ODDS FOR DOWNSIDE CORRECTION IN U.S -- EAFE ISHARES HAVE BROKEN 50-DAY LINE -- CANADIAN STOCKS HAVE ALSO TURNED DOWN -- S&P MIDCAP INDEX IS STALLED AT 2011 HIGHS -- NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX IS WEAKENING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EAFE ISHARES WEAKEN... It's dangerous to analyze the U.S. stock market without taking into consideration trends in foreign markets. That's because they are very highly correlated. In my view, odds for a downside correction in the U.S. have increased, due mainly to selling in...   READ MORE 

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LIKELIHOOD FOR STOCK PULLBACK GROWS -- WEAK SPANISH BOND AUCTION WEAKENS EURO EVEN FURTHER AND BOOSTS THE DOLLAR -- THAT'S PUSHING GOLD AND COMMODITIES LOWER -- WEAK EUROPEAN STOCKS ARE PUTTING DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO WEAKNESS BOOSTS DOLLAR EVEN MORE... The likelihood for a downside correction in stocks is growing. In fact, one may already be starting. The S&P 500 remains in an overbought condition, but has yet to break any support levels. Those initial support levels may be tested shortly. The...   READ MORE 

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MINUTES OF FED MARCH MEETING PUSH THE DOLLAR HIGHER AND GOLD LOWER -- STOCKS REMAIN IN UPTREND -- RISING BOND YIELD AND FALLING PRICES SHOULD MOVE MONEY OUT OF BONDS AND INTO STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED SEES LESS NEED FOR MORE STIMULUS... Minutes of the Fed's March meeting released this afternoon surprised the markets by suggesting that it saw less need for additional stimulus. That immediately pushed bond yields sharply higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) jumping sharply which...   READ MORE 

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BOND RALLY IS IN DOUBT -- 7-10 YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF MAY RETEST 200-DAY LINE -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BOND ISHARES ARE STALLING AT 50-DAY LINE -- BARCLAYS AGGREGATE BOND FUND COVERS ENTIRE CATEGORY OF INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND RALLY IS IN DOUBT... Last Tuesday's message showed the bond market attempting a rebound after some heavy selling during March. So far the rally has been less than impressive. That's especially true of Treasuries. Chart 1 shows the Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond iShares (IEF)...   READ MORE 

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WEAKER DOLLAR GIVES BOOST TO COMMODITIES AND RELATED STOCKS -- MONSANTO LEADS MATERIAL STOCKS HIGHER -- EXXON MOBIL LEADS STRONG ENERGY SECTOR AND TESTS ALL-TIME HIGH -- S&P 500 NEARS NEXT UPSIDE TARGET AT 1440

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES... The U.S. Dollar Index has been on the defensive for the last two weeks, and is again today. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) bearing down on its 200-day moving average once again (see circle). The UUP bounced off that...   READ MORE 

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INDUSTRIAL METALS UNDERPERFORM STOCK MARKET -- DOLLAR WEAKNESS FAILS TO TRIGGER BREAKOUT IN OIL -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FALLS SHARPLY AND UNDERPERFORMS -- SIX-MONTH CYCLE TURNS BEARISH IN MAY -- FRENCH AND UK STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INDUSTRIAL METALS UNDERPERFORM STOCK MARKET... Link for todays video. While the major stock indices pushed to new highs this month, the Base Metals ETF (DBB) and the Copper ETF (JJC) failed to break their February highs and are on the verge of breaking support. The working assumption here is that...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS BACK OFF FROM OCTOBER HIGH AS BOND ETFS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGES -- THAT KEEPS BOND PRICES AND YIELDS IN A TRADING RANGE -- HIGH YIELD IS THE STRONGEST BOND CATEGORY AND MUNICIPAL BONDS THE WEAKEST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS BACK OFF FROM OCTOBER RESISTANCE... Upbeat comments from the Fed a couple of weeks back caused an upward spike in bond yields and heavy selling of Treasury bond prices. After reaching previous highs formed last October, bond yields are dropping again. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield...   READ MORE 

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BERNANKE COMMENTS AND STOCKS JUMP -- GOLD SURGES ABOVE FIRST RESISTANCE LEVEL -- OFFENSIVE SECTOR BULLISH PERCENT INDICES REMAIN STRONG -- UTILITIES IS THE WEAKEST OF THE DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- ENERGY BULLISH% INDEX IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BERNANKE TALKS AND STOCKS JUMP ... Link for todays video. Stocks started the week strong as dovish comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke encouraged the bulls. Bernanke noted that the Fed needed to extend its accommodative policies to encourage job growth. Most of us are familiar with the motto: dont fight the...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR STALLS WITH SMALL CONSOLIDATION -- HOME BUILDING ETFS PULL BACK TO BREAKOUTS -- MCCLELLAN OSCILLATORS CONTINUE TO SHOW BREADTH DETERIORATION -- RUSSELL 2000 SERIOUSLY UNDERPERFORMS S&P 100

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SPDR STALLS WITH SMALL CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. Retail stocks are showing early signs of relative weakness that could foreshadow a stock market correction. Chart 1 shows the Retail SPDR (XRT) coming under pressure on Friday with a decline back below 61. The ETF first moved above 61...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS TOOK OFF IN 1951 AFTER THE FED LET BOND YIELDS RISE -- THEY MAY HAVE TO DO THE SAME AGAIN -- THIRTY YEAR BULL MARKET IN BONDS MAY BE COMING TO AN END -- THAT SHOULD HELP STOCKS -- NASDAQ/BOND RATIO MAY BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED BOND INTERVENTION DURING 1940S CAPPED STOCK PRICES... I wrote last Thursday why the Fed's current policy of buying longer-dated maturities to keep bond yields from rising may actually be putting a cap on stock prices. I explained that the last time the Fed did that was between...   READ MORE 

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TRADING GETS AWFULLY QUIET IN SMALL AND MID CAPS -- DOW TRANSPORTS BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- GOLD FIRMS IN KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- AGRICULTURE ETF FORMS PENNANT AFTER SUPPORT BREAK -- CORN ETN FAILS AT RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRADING GETS AWFULLY QUIET IN SMALL AND MID CAPS... Link for todays video. Trading activity slowed considerably over the last two days as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed two very small candlesticks. Chart 1 shows IWM making a breakout attempt on Monday, but falling back on Tuesday with a...   READ MORE