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ANALYZING THE 2011 RETURN TO RISK -- MARKETS REMAIN IN RISK OFF MODE AS SPY HITS RESISTANCE -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR HOLDS ISLAND REVERSAL AND QQQ HOLDS GAP -- FIRSTTRUST INTERNET ETF CHANNELS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ANALYZING THE RETURN TO RISK IN OCTOBER 2011... Link for todays video. Is the current decline a correction like August 2011 or is this the start of a bigger bear move? All bear markets start as corrections, but not all corrections lead to bear markets. Even though the April-June decline...   READ MORE 

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EAFE ISHARES TEST POTENTIAL NECKLINE -- FOREIGN STOCKS ARE OVERSOLD, BUT STILL IN DOWNTRENDS -- S&P 500 CLIMBS BACK ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE -- WEEKLY MACD LINES, HOWEVER, REMAIN NEGATIVE -- TUMBLING COMMODITY PRICES ALSO WEIGH ON STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EAFE ISHARES NEAR TEST OF NECKLINE... I recently wrote about the possibility that foreign stocks were tracing out "head and shoulder" tops. Chart 1 shows an updated version of that potential pattern. The pattern is marked by three prominent peaks over the last two years, with the middle...   READ MORE 

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DIA FAILS AT BROKEN SUPPORT AGAIN -- MID-CAP PRICE RELATIVE BREAKS TO NEW LOW -- BASE METALS ETF NEARS 52-WEEK LOW -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- ITALIAN STOCKS LEAD EUROPE LOWER WITH WEAK CLOSE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA FAILS AT BROKEN SUPPORT AGAIN... Link for todays video. A key tenet of technical analysis suggests that broken support turns into resistance. The reverse is also true as broken resistance turns into support. While it does not work all the time, it works often enough to keep in mind...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR FAILS AT RESISTANCE -- RETAIL SPDR HOLDS DOUBLE TOP SUPPORT BREAK -- STOCK MARKET REMAINS ON DEFENSIVE FOOTING OVERALL -- TELECOM ETF STARTS SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- VERIZON AND AT&T HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR FAILS AT RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. As with August 2011, volatility invaded the stock market over the last three weeks. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) breaking below support in mid May, failing at broken support in late May and moving sharply lower last...   READ MORE 

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EURO RISES AND TREASURIES FALL AS MARKET TAKES ON SOME RISK -- FINANCE SECTOR LEADS OVERSOLD BOUNCE IN STOCKS -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF BOUNCES OFF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT -- REVISITING THE 2010 AND 2011 CORRECTIONS IN THE S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO RISES AND TREASURIES FALL AS MARKET TAKES ON SOME RISK... Link for todays video. Stocks are getting an oversold bounce this week as the Euro rebounds from oversold levels and treasuries correct their excesses. Chart 1 shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) rebounding back towards 125 the last four...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 FIRMS AFTER BREAKING 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE -- QQQ FIRMS IN FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT ZONE -- REAL ESTATE ISHARES TESTS SUPPORT ZONE -- GLD SURGES OFF SUPPORT AS STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR TURNS UP -- SILVER ETF REMAINS IN CONSOLIDATION AND LAGS GOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 FIRMS AFTER BREAKING 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... Link for todays video. Stocks got slammed last Friday after yet another economic report came in below expectations. Actually, a few economic reports came in below expectations last week (Chicago PMI, jobless claims, non-farm payrolls, ISM Manufacturing). This trend continued...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS HIT BY LESS-THAN-EXPECTED JOBS GROWTH -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR FAILS AT BROKEN SUPPORT ZONE -- FINANCE AND INDUSTRIALS SPDRS TEST 200-DAY SMAS -- OIL AND COPPER FOLLOW STOCK MARKET LOWER -- SMALL-CAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS HIT BY LESS-THAN-EXPECTED JOBS GROWTH... Link for todays video. Economic reports have been coming in below expectations over the last two months and todays employment report was no exception. While I would not call the numbers outright negative, job growth was clearly less-than-expected in May and prior months were...   READ MORE 

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INTERMARKET TRENDS TURN MORE NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS -- NEW LOWS BY BOND YIELD AND COMMODITIES ARE SIGNS OF WEAKNESS -- SO ARE WEAKER FOREIGN STOCKS WHICH MAY BE TRACING OUT A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP -- DOLLAR AND YEN RISE WHILE OTHER CURRENCIES TUMBLE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS AND COMMODITIES HIT NEW LOWS... Everywhere I look I see more serious warning flags for the U.S. stock market. Two of them are coming from recent breakdowns in bond yields and commodity prices. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield (green line) and CRB Index (brown line)...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 AND RUSSELL 2000 FAIL AT BROKEN SUPPORT -- DOLLAR HITS NEW HIGHS AS EURO PLUNGES TO NEW LOWS -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BREAKS BELOW SEPTEMBER LOW -- GOLD ESTABLISHES FIRST RESISTANCE AND TESTS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 AND RUSSELL 2000 FAIL AT BROKEN SUPPORT ... Link for todays video. Concerns in Europe spread across the Atlantic as selling pressure hit stocks on Wednesday. Todays selling pressure comes after an oversold bounce that extended to Tuesday. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 breaking...   READ MORE 

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SPY REMAINS BELOW SUPPORT BREAK -- BROKEN SUPPORTS MARK FIRST RESISTANCE FOR XLY AND XLI -- XLF AND SMH TESTS 200DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- GOLD BATTLES SUPPORT AS STOCHASTICS REMAINS OVERSOLD -- DOLLAR AND TREASURIES CONTROL THE RISK-OFF TRADE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY REMAINS BELOW SUPPORT BREAK... Link for todays video. After a shellacking the first half of May, stocks finally firmed this week and the major index ETFs moved into short-term trading ranges. This, however, is not enough to undo the technical damage done the first three weeks of May. We...   READ MORE 

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SETTING SUMMER TARGETS FOR THE DOW AND NASDAQ -- XLY AND XLK REVERSE AT CHANNEL TRENDLINES -- XLI AND XLF SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS NOT IMMUNE, BUT SHOULD HOLD UP BETTER -- LONG-TERM MOMENTUM TURNS NEGATIVE FOR ALL ORDS AND HANG SENG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SETTING SUMMER TARGETS FOR THE DOW AND NASDAQ ... Link for todays video. As outlined in market messages since mid May, the major stock indices have broken key support levels and several breadth indicators have turned bearish. The bulk of the evidence clearly shifted from bullish to bearish over the last...   READ MORE 

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RISING DOLLAR KEEPS COMMODITIES UNDER PRESSURE -- EURO AND GOLD ARE TESTING SUPPORT LEVELS TOGETHER -- RALLY ATTEMPT IN S&P 500 FADES -- FOREIGN STOCKS STILL IN 2012 DOWNTRENDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE... Selling in foreign currencies is giving a continuing boost to the U.S. Dollar. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (DBC) climbing to the highest level in four months. The UUP recently cleared its mid-March intra-day peak at 22.47. The...   READ MORE 

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STEEL, COAL, OIL SERVICES AND NETWORKING ETFS LEAD OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- DOW INDUSTRIALS SPDR FIRMS WITH INSIDE DAY -- PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE 50-DAY PLUNGES TO BEAR LEVELS WEEKLY AROON AND MACD TURN BEARISH FOR IWM AND SPY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STEEL, COAL, OIL SERVICES AND NETWORKING ETFS LEAD OVERSOLD BOUNCE ... Link for todays video. The bulls found their footing on Monday as stocks bounced from oversold levels. The hardest hit groups bounced the most as the Networking iShares (IGN), Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), Oil & Gas Equipment/Services SPDR...   READ MORE 

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U.S. STOCK INDEXES THREATEN 200-DAY LINES -- FOREIGN STOCK INDEXES HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THEIRS AND MAY BE TRACING OUT HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOPS -- TEST OF 2011 LOWS WILL BE CRUCIAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE... The slide in stocks continued this week to the point that some key support levels are about to be tested. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 bearing down on its October high (1292) and its 200-day moving average (red...   READ MORE 

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STOCK BULLS KNOCKED DOWN WITH A BIG BEAR PUNCH -- A VOLATILE BASING PERIODS COULD BE IN THE CARDS -- SETTING SPY VOLUME AND PRICE TARGETS FOR A SELLING CLIMAX -- IS GOLD POISED TO JOIN THE SAFE-HAVEN TRADE? -- GLD HITS SUPPORT FROM DECEMBER LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK MARKET BULLS KNOCKED DOWN WITH A BIG BEAR PUNCH... Link for todays video. The decline in stocks accelerated this week with the major index ETFs and some key sector SPDRs breaking clear support levels. This could be the beginning of the end, or it could simply be the middle...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SPDR ON THE VERGE OF TREND REVERSAL -- RETAIL SPDR TRACES OUT DOUBLE TOP -- ON BALANCE VOLUME MOVES SHARPLY LOWER FOR XLY -- HOME BUILDERS AND REITS CONTINUE SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- COMMODITIES AND BIG EMERGING MARKETS FALLING TOGETHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SPDR ON THE VERGE OF TREND REVERSAL ... Link for todays video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) broke an important support level last week and is on the verge of breaking another this week. I first marked key support at the February-March lows in the market message on April 18th and...   READ MORE 

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CRB INDEX BREAKDOWN HURTS STOCKS -- DOLLAR SURGES AS EURO TUMBLES TO FOUR-MONTH LOW -- FOREIGN STOCKS WEAKNESS IS WEIGHING ON U.S. STOCKS -- A RISING DOLLAR, HOWEVER, STILL MAKES U.S. ASSETS A SAFER PLACE TO BE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRB BREAKDOWN HURTS STOCKS ... Last Tueday's message showed the CRB Index in the process of testing its lows formed during the second half of 2011, and warned that commodity weakness was starting to hurt stock values. Since then, the CRB has plunged to the lowest level in 20...   READ MORE 

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DOW BREAKS KEY SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE -- TREASURIES SURGE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- US DOLLAR FUND BREAKS APRIL HIGH -- GERMAN BUND ETF SURGES AS ITALIAN BOND ETF MOVES LOWER -- EUROPEAN STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER WITH SPAIN LEADING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW BREAKS KEY SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE... Link for todays video. The risk-off was in full force early Monday. Treasuries and the Dollar moved sharply higher as stocks, gold, the Euro and oil moved sharply lower. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials breaking below its March-April lows with a sharp...   READ MORE 

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S&P MIDCAP 400 AND S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX BATTLE SUPPORT -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS LEADING MARKET SINCE APRIL -- AD VOLUME LINES BREAK KEY SUPPORT LEVELS -- NET NEW HIGHS LINES REMAIN BULLISH OVERALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P MIDCAP 400 AND S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX BATTLE SUPPORT... Link for todays video. After sharp declines last week, stocks turned mixed this week and several indices are firming near key support levels. I have been writing about support from the March-April lows for a...   READ MORE 

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THE DOLLAR INDEX MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF BOTTOMING -- INTERMARKET IMPLICATIONS RESULTING FROM A STRONGER DOLLAR INCLUDE WEAKER COMMODITY PRICES -- A FIRMER DOLLAR MAKES U.S. STOCKS MORE ATTRACTIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INTERMARKET IMPLICATIONS OF A STRONGER DOLLAR... The monthy bars in Chart 1 suggest that the U.S. Dollar Index may be going through a major bottoming process. After peaking during 2002, the USD fell steadily until 2008 when it bottomed. Since then, it has been trending sideways in what appears...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 TESTS APRIL LOWS -- EUROPEAN TOP 100 INDEX BREAKS WEDGE TRENDLINE -- LESS THAN 50% OF $NDX AND $SPX STOCKS ARE ABOVE THEIR 50-DAY SMAS -- COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX MOVES BELOW -200 FOR GLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 TESTS OFF APRIL LOWS ... Link for todays video. With a sharp decline the last few days, chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials testing its April lows and key support in the 12700 area. A break below these lows would forge a lower trough and argue for...   READ MORE 

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MARKET RESUMES SELLING -- RETAILERS GET MARKED DOWN -- DOLLAR BOUNCE KEEPS PRESSURE ON COMMODITIES -- GOLD TUMBLES AS EURO BREAKS SUPPORT -- TREASURIES CONTINUE TO RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAILERS GET DISCOUNTED... Selling has resumed in stocks this morning. The biggest percentage losses are appearing in consumer discretionary stocks, and retailers in particular. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) falling below its 50-day line for the first time this year. That had been one of the market&...   READ MORE 

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USING TRIX AND AROON FOR IDENTIFY THE LONG-TERM TREND -- FINANCE SPDR FIRMS NEAR APRIL LOWS -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR FORMS TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION -- RETAIL SPDR FORMS WEEKLY DARK CLOUD PATTERN -- DOLLAR BULLISH ETF BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM TRENDLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING TRIX AND AROON FOR IDENTIFY THE LONG-TERM TREND... Link for todays video. A few months ago I featured a simple trend identification system using the 18-week Aroon oscillators and the Trix oscillator (10,6). You can read more about both indicators in our ChartSchool. Aroon is a directional indicator...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ LEADS REST OF MARKET LOWER -- A DEEPER CORRECTION NOW APPEARS LIKELY -- WEAK COMMODITIES ALSO WEIGH ON STOCKS AS BONDS RALLY -- YEN RALLIES AS AUSSIE DOLLAR WEAKENS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS INDEXES WEAKEN ON RISING VOLUME... It looks like traders and investors took the "sell in May" mantra seriously this week. Stocks fell sharply after Friday morning's weak April jobs report was released. The worst performance came in the Power Shares QQQ Trust which led the...   READ MORE 

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QQQ FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT AS CCI TURNS NEGATIVE -- IWM KEEPS HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERN ALIVE -- TREASURIES MOVE HIGHER AS STOCKS MOVE LOWER -- OIL BREAKS RISING WEDGE SUPPORT -- ENERGY SPDR FAILS AT KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT AS CCI TURNS NEGATIVE... Link for todays video. Stocks fell after the employment report showed non-farm payrolls increasing just 115,000, which was below expectations. Todays report caps a week of less-than-stellar economic reports. While I would not consider this weeks economic reports bad, they...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LEADS SECTORS HIGHER -- JUNK BOND ETFS HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS -- TREASURY BOND ETF STALLS AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- DOLLAR BULLISH ETF BOUNCES OFF FEBRUARY LOW -- EURO ETF KEEPS DESCENDING TRIANGLE ALIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LEADS SECTORS HIGHER... Link for todays video. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is the only sector SPDR to hit a 52-week high this week. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) and the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) are close to new 52-week highs, but have yet to actually break out....   READ MORE 

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DOW INDUSTRIALS EXCEED 2008 PEAK -- DOW TRANSPORTS RIDE THE RAILS HIGHER -- KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN REACHES NEW RECORD -- S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF NEW SUPPORT -- BOND PRICES TURN DOWN AS STOCKS RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW INDUSTRIALS EXCEED 2008 HIGH... With stocks ralling nicely today, the Dow Industrials are the first to reach a new 52-week high. Chart 1 shows the Dow trading above its spring highs to resume its major uptrend. The weekly bars in Chart 2 also show the Dow moving above its...   READ MORE 

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NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR THE TRANSPORT ISHARES -- GOLD FOLLOWS STOCK MARKET AND BREAKS WEDGE TRENDLINE -- US DOLLAR FUND BREAKS DIAMOND SUPPORT -- NASDAQ AND NYSE AD VOLUME LINES ESTABLISH KEY SUPPORT -- NET NEW HIGHS SURGE AND REMAIN BULLISH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR THE TRANSPORT ISHARES ... Link for todays video. While the S&P 500 and Dow zoomed to new highs on April 2nd, the Dow Transports and Transport iShares (IYT) fell short and continue to underperform. Even though we have yet to see a break down or trend...   READ MORE 

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COUNT OR NO COUNT, THE UP TREND HOLDS THE TRUMP CARDS -- LONG-TERM WAVE COUNT SHOWS LARGE EXPANDING TRIANGLE FOR $SPX -- ALTERNATIVE COUNT SUGGEST NEW BULL MARKET -- OCTOBER-MARCH ADVANCE LOOKS LIKE WAVE 3 OF WAVE V

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COUNT OR NO COUNT, THE TREND HOLDS THE TRUMP CARDS... Link for todays video. There have been a few requests for an Elliott Wave count so this will be the Elliott Wave edition. This is opening Pandoras box because alternative counts and trading biases often come into play when making...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER -- SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS LEAD TECHNOLOGY REBOUND LED BY XILINX AND KLAC -- AMGEN RESUMES UPTREND WHILE WAL-MART TUMBLES -- STOCK INDEXES CLEAR APRIL HIGHS TO STRENGTHEN MARKET'S SHORT-TERM TREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHIP STOCKS HELP POWER QQQ ADVANCE ... The technology-dominated Nasdaq continues to help lead the rest of the market out of its recent downside correction. The daily bars in Chart 1 show yesterday's upside gap in the Power Shares QQQ Trust following a downside gap just two days earlier....   READ MORE 

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DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 ETFS BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- QQQ AND XLK CHALLENGE FLAG TRENDLINES -- APPLE TRADES SHARES OUTSTANDING IN 40 DAYS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CONSOLIDATES WITH PENNANT -- TREASURIES PULL BACK AFTER FED STATEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 ETFS BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT... Link for todays video. The Fed voted to maintain the course and keep rates unchanged, which was hardly a surprise. To paraphrase from its policy statement, the Fed said it expects economic growth to remain moderate for a few quarters and then...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MID CAPS LEAD STOCK MARKET LOWER -- MATERIALS SECTOR LEADS SECTOR SPDRS LOWER -- DOLLAR BOUNCES OFF DIAMOND SUPPORT LINE -- BEAR FLAG TAKES SHAPE IN OIL ETF -- GERMAN STOCK INDEX BREAKS MARCH LOWS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID CAPS LEAD STOCK MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks move sharply lower in early trading on Monday with the Russell 2000 ($RUT) and the Nasdaq leading the way. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 breaking flag support with a weak open and decline below 790 early...   READ MORE 

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SECTOR ROTATION SHOW MONEY MOVING OUT OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTO DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- APPLE WEAKNESS CONTRIBUTES TO NASDAQ SLIDE WHICH IS TESTING ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SEMICONDUCTORS ALSO WEAKEN -- WALGREEN AND WALMART ARE STAPLE LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE SECTOR ROTATION ... One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface. Chart 1 shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive. The four sector lines...   READ MORE 

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HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS TAKING SHAPE IN DIA, XLI AND MDY -- CUMULATIVE NET NEW HIGHS LINES HOLDING UP -- US DOLLAR FUND EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION AS EURO FIRMS -- GOLD REMAINS IN DOWNTREND WITH FALLING WEDGE -- SILVER TRUST CONSOLIDATES WITHIN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS TAKING SHAPE IN DIA, XLI AND MDY... Link for todays video. Wednesday I noted that the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed rising flag patterns after the sharp April decline. Taking a look at price action since early February, it is also possible that...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND DIA FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS -- USING THE SLOPE TO DETERMINE THE TREND -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- FINANCE AND INDUSTRIALS SPDRS SHOW WEAKER UPTRENDS -- MATERIALS AND ENERGY SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND DIA FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS... Link for todays video. After a sharp decline in early April, stocks bounced the last 5-6 days with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) leading the major index ETFs. These bounces traced out patterns that look like rising flags,...   READ MORE 

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APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD NASDAQ 100 ETF LOWER -- MARCH LOWS MARK FIRST SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT LEVEL -- SMALL AND MID CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM -- SPANISH AND ITALIAN STOCKS BREAK DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD NASDAQ 100 ETF LOWER... Link for todays video. Tech stocks moved sharply lower in early trading on Friday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) declining over 1%. Chart 1 shows QQQ moving below 66 with its sharpest decline since December. The first support zone to watch...   READ MORE 

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KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN LEADS STRONG TRANSPORTATION RALLY -- DOW INDUSTRIALS TRY TO REGAIN 50-DAY LINE -- BOUNCE IN CHINESE STOCKS BOOSTS GLOBAL STOCKS -- CANADIAN DOLLAR AND COMMODITY ETF BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES TOGETHER -- GOLD MAY BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANPORTS LEAD STOCK RALLY ... Tuesday's message showed a number of stock indexes testing initial support at their early March low, which is the first line of chart support during the current market pullback. Most of those indexes have either bounced off that initial support level or have climbed...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS PLUNGE AS TREASURIES LEAP -- JUNK BONDS CORRECT WITH STOCKS -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCKS ARE PULLING S&P 500 BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- ENERGY AND BASIC MATERIAL ETFS WEAKEN WITH COMMODITIES -- FOREIGN STOCKS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN U.S.

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD PLUNGES AS BOND PRICES JUMP... The weak job reports from last Friday is having a bearish impact on stocks (as expected), but a bullish effect on bonds. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) gapping down sharply on Monday to fall back below its 50-day moving...   READ MORE 

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WEAK JOBS REPORT WEAKENS STOCK FUTURES AND INCREASES LIKELIHOOD FOR MARKET CORRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK FUTURES WEAKEN ON FRIDAY... A disappointing jobs report on Friday caused U.S. stock index futures to fall 1%. My Thursday message wrote about the likelihood for a market correction. That was based on the fact that stocks are overbought, the tendency for the seasonal trend to start weakening...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN SELLING INCREASES ODDS FOR DOWNSIDE CORRECTION IN U.S -- EAFE ISHARES HAVE BROKEN 50-DAY LINE -- CANADIAN STOCKS HAVE ALSO TURNED DOWN -- S&P MIDCAP INDEX IS STALLED AT 2011 HIGHS -- NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX IS WEAKENING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EAFE ISHARES WEAKEN... It's dangerous to analyze the U.S. stock market without taking into consideration trends in foreign markets. That's because they are very highly correlated. In my view, odds for a downside correction in the U.S. have increased, due mainly to selling in...   READ MORE