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NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR THE TRANSPORT ISHARES -- GOLD FOLLOWS STOCK MARKET AND BREAKS WEDGE TRENDLINE -- US DOLLAR FUND BREAKS DIAMOND SUPPORT -- NASDAQ AND NYSE AD VOLUME LINES ESTABLISH KEY SUPPORT -- NET NEW HIGHS SURGE AND REMAIN BULLISH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR THE TRANSPORT ISHARES ... Link for todays video. While the S&P 500 and Dow zoomed to new highs on April 2nd, the Dow Transports and Transport iShares (IYT) fell short and continue to underperform. Even though we have yet to see a break down or trend...   READ MORE 

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COUNT OR NO COUNT, THE UP TREND HOLDS THE TRUMP CARDS -- LONG-TERM WAVE COUNT SHOWS LARGE EXPANDING TRIANGLE FOR $SPX -- ALTERNATIVE COUNT SUGGEST NEW BULL MARKET -- OCTOBER-MARCH ADVANCE LOOKS LIKE WAVE 3 OF WAVE V

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COUNT OR NO COUNT, THE TREND HOLDS THE TRUMP CARDS... Link for todays video. There have been a few requests for an Elliott Wave count so this will be the Elliott Wave edition. This is opening Pandoras box because alternative counts and trading biases often come into play when making...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER -- SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS LEAD TECHNOLOGY REBOUND LED BY XILINX AND KLAC -- AMGEN RESUMES UPTREND WHILE WAL-MART TUMBLES -- STOCK INDEXES CLEAR APRIL HIGHS TO STRENGTHEN MARKET'S SHORT-TERM TREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHIP STOCKS HELP POWER QQQ ADVANCE ... The technology-dominated Nasdaq continues to help lead the rest of the market out of its recent downside correction. The daily bars in Chart 1 show yesterday's upside gap in the Power Shares QQQ Trust following a downside gap just two days earlier....   READ MORE 

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DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 ETFS BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- QQQ AND XLK CHALLENGE FLAG TRENDLINES -- APPLE TRADES SHARES OUTSTANDING IN 40 DAYS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CONSOLIDATES WITH PENNANT -- TREASURIES PULL BACK AFTER FED STATEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 ETFS BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT... Link for todays video. The Fed voted to maintain the course and keep rates unchanged, which was hardly a surprise. To paraphrase from its policy statement, the Fed said it expects economic growth to remain moderate for a few quarters and then...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MID CAPS LEAD STOCK MARKET LOWER -- MATERIALS SECTOR LEADS SECTOR SPDRS LOWER -- DOLLAR BOUNCES OFF DIAMOND SUPPORT LINE -- BEAR FLAG TAKES SHAPE IN OIL ETF -- GERMAN STOCK INDEX BREAKS MARCH LOWS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID CAPS LEAD STOCK MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks move sharply lower in early trading on Monday with the Russell 2000 ($RUT) and the Nasdaq leading the way. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 breaking flag support with a weak open and decline below 790 early...   READ MORE 

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SECTOR ROTATION SHOW MONEY MOVING OUT OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTO DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- APPLE WEAKNESS CONTRIBUTES TO NASDAQ SLIDE WHICH IS TESTING ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SEMICONDUCTORS ALSO WEAKEN -- WALGREEN AND WALMART ARE STAPLE LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE SECTOR ROTATION ... One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface. Chart 1 shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive. The four sector lines...   READ MORE 

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HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS TAKING SHAPE IN DIA, XLI AND MDY -- CUMULATIVE NET NEW HIGHS LINES HOLDING UP -- US DOLLAR FUND EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION AS EURO FIRMS -- GOLD REMAINS IN DOWNTREND WITH FALLING WEDGE -- SILVER TRUST CONSOLIDATES WITHIN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS TAKING SHAPE IN DIA, XLI AND MDY... Link for todays video. Wednesday I noted that the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed rising flag patterns after the sharp April decline. Taking a look at price action since early February, it is also possible that...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND DIA FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS -- USING THE SLOPE TO DETERMINE THE TREND -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- FINANCE AND INDUSTRIALS SPDRS SHOW WEAKER UPTRENDS -- MATERIALS AND ENERGY SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND DIA FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS... Link for todays video. After a sharp decline in early April, stocks bounced the last 5-6 days with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) leading the major index ETFs. These bounces traced out patterns that look like rising flags,...   READ MORE 

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APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD NASDAQ 100 ETF LOWER -- MARCH LOWS MARK FIRST SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT LEVEL -- SMALL AND MID CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM -- SPANISH AND ITALIAN STOCKS BREAK DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD NASDAQ 100 ETF LOWER... Link for todays video. Tech stocks moved sharply lower in early trading on Friday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) declining over 1%. Chart 1 shows QQQ moving below 66 with its sharpest decline since December. The first support zone to watch...   READ MORE 

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KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN LEADS STRONG TRANSPORTATION RALLY -- DOW INDUSTRIALS TRY TO REGAIN 50-DAY LINE -- BOUNCE IN CHINESE STOCKS BOOSTS GLOBAL STOCKS -- CANADIAN DOLLAR AND COMMODITY ETF BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES TOGETHER -- GOLD MAY BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANPORTS LEAD STOCK RALLY ... Tuesday's message showed a number of stock indexes testing initial support at their early March low, which is the first line of chart support during the current market pullback. Most of those indexes have either bounced off that initial support level or have climbed...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS PLUNGE AS TREASURIES LEAP -- JUNK BONDS CORRECT WITH STOCKS -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCKS ARE PULLING S&P 500 BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- ENERGY AND BASIC MATERIAL ETFS WEAKEN WITH COMMODITIES -- FOREIGN STOCKS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN U.S.

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD PLUNGES AS BOND PRICES JUMP... The weak job reports from last Friday is having a bearish impact on stocks (as expected), but a bullish effect on bonds. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) gapping down sharply on Monday to fall back below its 50-day moving...   READ MORE 

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WEAK JOBS REPORT WEAKENS STOCK FUTURES AND INCREASES LIKELIHOOD FOR MARKET CORRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK FUTURES WEAKEN ON FRIDAY... A disappointing jobs report on Friday caused U.S. stock index futures to fall 1%. My Thursday message wrote about the likelihood for a market correction. That was based on the fact that stocks are overbought, the tendency for the seasonal trend to start weakening...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN SELLING INCREASES ODDS FOR DOWNSIDE CORRECTION IN U.S -- EAFE ISHARES HAVE BROKEN 50-DAY LINE -- CANADIAN STOCKS HAVE ALSO TURNED DOWN -- S&P MIDCAP INDEX IS STALLED AT 2011 HIGHS -- NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX IS WEAKENING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EAFE ISHARES WEAKEN... It's dangerous to analyze the U.S. stock market without taking into consideration trends in foreign markets. That's because they are very highly correlated. In my view, odds for a downside correction in the U.S. have increased, due mainly to selling in...   READ MORE 

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LIKELIHOOD FOR STOCK PULLBACK GROWS -- WEAK SPANISH BOND AUCTION WEAKENS EURO EVEN FURTHER AND BOOSTS THE DOLLAR -- THAT'S PUSHING GOLD AND COMMODITIES LOWER -- WEAK EUROPEAN STOCKS ARE PUTTING DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO WEAKNESS BOOSTS DOLLAR EVEN MORE... The likelihood for a downside correction in stocks is growing. In fact, one may already be starting. The S&P 500 remains in an overbought condition, but has yet to break any support levels. Those initial support levels may be tested shortly. The...   READ MORE 

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MINUTES OF FED MARCH MEETING PUSH THE DOLLAR HIGHER AND GOLD LOWER -- STOCKS REMAIN IN UPTREND -- RISING BOND YIELD AND FALLING PRICES SHOULD MOVE MONEY OUT OF BONDS AND INTO STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED SEES LESS NEED FOR MORE STIMULUS... Minutes of the Fed's March meeting released this afternoon surprised the markets by suggesting that it saw less need for additional stimulus. That immediately pushed bond yields sharply higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) jumping sharply which...   READ MORE 

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BOND RALLY IS IN DOUBT -- 7-10 YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF MAY RETEST 200-DAY LINE -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BOND ISHARES ARE STALLING AT 50-DAY LINE -- BARCLAYS AGGREGATE BOND FUND COVERS ENTIRE CATEGORY OF INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND RALLY IS IN DOUBT... Last Tuesday's message showed the bond market attempting a rebound after some heavy selling during March. So far the rally has been less than impressive. That's especially true of Treasuries. Chart 1 shows the Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond iShares (IEF)...   READ MORE 

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WEAKER DOLLAR GIVES BOOST TO COMMODITIES AND RELATED STOCKS -- MONSANTO LEADS MATERIAL STOCKS HIGHER -- EXXON MOBIL LEADS STRONG ENERGY SECTOR AND TESTS ALL-TIME HIGH -- S&P 500 NEARS NEXT UPSIDE TARGET AT 1440

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES... The U.S. Dollar Index has been on the defensive for the last two weeks, and is again today. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) bearing down on its 200-day moving average once again (see circle). The UUP bounced off that...   READ MORE 

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INDUSTRIAL METALS UNDERPERFORM STOCK MARKET -- DOLLAR WEAKNESS FAILS TO TRIGGER BREAKOUT IN OIL -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FALLS SHARPLY AND UNDERPERFORMS -- SIX-MONTH CYCLE TURNS BEARISH IN MAY -- FRENCH AND UK STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INDUSTRIAL METALS UNDERPERFORM STOCK MARKET... Link for todays video. While the major stock indices pushed to new highs this month, the Base Metals ETF (DBB) and the Copper ETF (JJC) failed to break their February highs and are on the verge of breaking support. The working assumption here is that...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS BACK OFF FROM OCTOBER HIGH AS BOND ETFS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGES -- THAT KEEPS BOND PRICES AND YIELDS IN A TRADING RANGE -- HIGH YIELD IS THE STRONGEST BOND CATEGORY AND MUNICIPAL BONDS THE WEAKEST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS BACK OFF FROM OCTOBER RESISTANCE... Upbeat comments from the Fed a couple of weeks back caused an upward spike in bond yields and heavy selling of Treasury bond prices. After reaching previous highs formed last October, bond yields are dropping again. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield...   READ MORE 

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BERNANKE COMMENTS AND STOCKS JUMP -- GOLD SURGES ABOVE FIRST RESISTANCE LEVEL -- OFFENSIVE SECTOR BULLISH PERCENT INDICES REMAIN STRONG -- UTILITIES IS THE WEAKEST OF THE DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- ENERGY BULLISH% INDEX IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BERNANKE TALKS AND STOCKS JUMP ... Link for todays video. Stocks started the week strong as dovish comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke encouraged the bulls. Bernanke noted that the Fed needed to extend its accommodative policies to encourage job growth. Most of us are familiar with the motto: dont fight the...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR STALLS WITH SMALL CONSOLIDATION -- HOME BUILDING ETFS PULL BACK TO BREAKOUTS -- MCCLELLAN OSCILLATORS CONTINUE TO SHOW BREADTH DETERIORATION -- RUSSELL 2000 SERIOUSLY UNDERPERFORMS S&P 100

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SPDR STALLS WITH SMALL CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. Retail stocks are showing early signs of relative weakness that could foreshadow a stock market correction. Chart 1 shows the Retail SPDR (XRT) coming under pressure on Friday with a decline back below 61. The ETF first moved above 61...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS TOOK OFF IN 1951 AFTER THE FED LET BOND YIELDS RISE -- THEY MAY HAVE TO DO THE SAME AGAIN -- THIRTY YEAR BULL MARKET IN BONDS MAY BE COMING TO AN END -- THAT SHOULD HELP STOCKS -- NASDAQ/BOND RATIO MAY BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED BOND INTERVENTION DURING 1940S CAPPED STOCK PRICES... I wrote last Thursday why the Fed's current policy of buying longer-dated maturities to keep bond yields from rising may actually be putting a cap on stock prices. I explained that the last time the Fed did that was between...   READ MORE 

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TRADING GETS AWFULLY QUIET IN SMALL AND MID CAPS -- DOW TRANSPORTS BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- GOLD FIRMS IN KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- AGRICULTURE ETF FORMS PENNANT AFTER SUPPORT BREAK -- CORN ETN FAILS AT RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRADING GETS AWFULLY QUIET IN SMALL AND MID CAPS... Link for todays video. Trading activity slowed considerably over the last two days as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed two very small candlesticks. Chart 1 shows IWM making a breakout attempt on Monday, but falling back on Tuesday with a...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ INDEXES REACH 12-YEAR HIGH AND ARE LEADING REST OF MARKET HIGHER -- APPLE IS A HUGE PART OF THE NASDAQ BREAKOUT, BUT NOT ALL OF IT -- OTHER STRONG NASDAQ STOCKS INCLUDE INTEL, QUALCOMM, AND COMCAST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ INDEXES HIT 12 YEAR HIGHS... The plunge in the Nasdaq market during 2000 began the "lost decade" for stocks which have essentially trended sideways since then. The good news is the same Nasdaq market may be leading stocks into a better decade. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 MAKES A RUN FOR RESISTANCE -- NET NEW HIGHS CONFIRM MARKET STRENGTH -- CRUDE OIL CHALLENGES FALLING WEDGE RESISTANCE -- HEATING OIL FORMS BULLISH PENNANT -- OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT/SERVICES SPDR TESTS BROKEN RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 MAKES A RUN FOR RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Small-caps are showing upside leadership in early trading on Monday, which is important because small-caps have been lagging large-caps since early February. A breakout in small-caps and return to relative strength would be positive for stocks in general. Chart...   READ MORE 

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TOTAL EXCHANGE VOLUME AINT WHAT IT USED TO BE -- LOW VOLUME BREAKOUTS ARE NOT ALWAYS DOOMED -- ETF VOLUME CAN BE SUSPECT -- SMH AND OIH VOLUME CHANGED AFTER MANAGER SWITCH -- VOLUME MAY BE BEST SUITED FOR INDIVIDUAL STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TOTAL EXCHANGE VOLUME AINT WHAT IT USED TO BE... Link for todays video. Volume can be important, but chartists should remember that it is just an indicator that should be considered secondary to price action. First, note that exchange volume aint what it used to be. Back in the day,...   READ MORE 

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PRECIOUS METAL HAVE TAKEN A HIT OVER LAST TWO WEEKS -- RISING RATES ARE PART OF THE REASON WHY -- WHY CURRENT FED POLICY OF KEEPING RATES SO LOW MAY BE HOLDING THE STOCK MARKET BACK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD BREAKS 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD MINERS TEST SUPPORT... A couple of weeks ago (February 28) I wrote a positive article on precious metal assets. The entire group has taken a big hit since then. Two contributing factors have been more positive comments from the Fed, which imply little or...   READ MORE 

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DOW BECOMES MOST OVERBOUGHT SINCE JULY 2011 -- DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO LAG DOW INDUSTRIALS -- AIRLINES AND RAILROADS WEIGH ON TRANSPORTS -- TRUCKING INDEX BREAKS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW BECOMES MOST OVERBOUGHT SINCE JULY 2011... Link for todays video. Led by the finance sector, the Dow Industrials surged above 13000 to record another new 52-week high this year. New 52-week highs occur in uptrends, not downtrends. Moreover, this new 52-week high is especially impressive because Apple is not...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES REACH MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AS BOND PRICES SELL OFF -- RISING RATES BOOST DOLLAR -- STOCK/BOND RATIO HAS TURNED UP -- FINANCIALS ARE SHOWING UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- BANK LEADERS ARE CITIGROUP AND JP MORGAN CHASE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH ... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 trading over 1380 for the first time since 2008. The S&P 500 would now have to drop back below last week's reaction low at 1340 to...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MID CAP ETFS STALL NEAR RESISTANCE -- MDY FORMS HANGING MAN ON WEEKLY CHART -- SPY STALLS ABOVE BREAKOUT -- XLU BREAKS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE -- VOLATILITY INDICES NEAR JULY LOWS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID CAP ETFS STALL NEAR RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. While the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) easily broke above their 2011 highs, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) have yet...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND RETAIL ETFS STILL LEADING -- FINANCE SPDR HOLDS SUPPORT AND CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ETFS SURGE ABOVE FEBRUARY HIGHS -- IYT CORRECTS WITH FALLING FLAG PATTERN -- COPPER HITS RESISTANCE WITH RISING WEDGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND RETAIL ETFS STILL LEADING... Link for todays video. Even though stocks are still overbought and ripe for a pullback, it is hard to imagine a broad market correction unfolding as long as the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Retail SPDR (XRT) are leading the market. As...   READ MORE 

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SPY BECOMES SHORT-TERM OVERSOLD -- USING FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS TO ESTIMATE SUPPORT ZONES -- UTILITIES FIRM AS MARKET TURNS DEFENSIVE -- TREASURIES COULD HOLD KEY TO NEXT MOVE IN STOCKS -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HOVERS AROUND 2%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY BECOMES SHORT-TERM OVERSOLD ... Link for todays video. At this point, Tuesdays sharp decline is viewed as a mini-correction within a bigger uptrend. It is simply one big down day after an 11-week advance. So how far might this correction run? There are many methods to estimate potential support levels...   READ MORE 

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RISING DOLLAR KEEPS DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON COMMODITIES -- CRB INDEX LOSES ANOTHER FOUR POINTS AFTER FAILING TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- GOLD LOSES MORE GROUND -- COPPER SELLS OFF SHARPLY ALONG WITH CHINA -- S&P 500 ENTERS DOWNSIDE CORRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING DOLLAR PUNISHES COMMODITIES ... The rally in the dollar that started last Wednesday is continuing. Chart shows the Power Shares Dollar Index (UUP) rising to its 50-day average today, after bouncing off its 200-day line last week. That's keeping downside pressure on commodities. Over the weekend, I showed...   READ MORE 

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OVERBOUGHT APPLE WEIGHS ON OVERBOUGHT QQQ -- QQQ EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF LAGS APPLE-DOMINATED QQQ -- NETWORKING AND SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD TECHS LOWER -- MATERIALS AND UTILITIES SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT APPLE WEIGHS ON OVERBOUGHT QQQ ... Link for todays video. Selling pressure in the technology sector and Apple (AAPL) is weighing on the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) today. Chart 1 shows QQQ testing the steep trendline extending up from mid December. After a 20% advance (54 to 65), the ETF...   READ MORE 

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JUMP IN THE DOLLAR PUNISHES COMMODITY PRICES AND PREVENTS UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN CRB INDEX -- PRECIOUS METALS WERE HIT ESPECIALLY HARD -- CRUDE OIL IS OVERBOUGHT BUT STILL IN UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE... An impressive upside reversal day on Wednesday enabled the Power Shares US Dollar Index (UUP) to bounce off its 200-day moving average as shown in Chart 1 (see arrow). That dollar turnaround was apparently the result of Mr. Bernanke omitting any mention of QE3...   READ MORE 

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PRICE RELATIVE CONTINUES TO SINK FOR RUSSELL 2000 -- IWM BREAKS CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT AS MDY HOLDS CONSOLIDATION -- DOLLAR FOLLOWS THROUGH ON REVERSAL DAY -- MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR TURNS NEGATIVE AS NASDAQ ADVANCES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

PRICE RELATIVE CONTINUES TO SINK FOR RUSSELL 2000 ... Link for todays video. Relative weakness in small-caps remains a concern because small companies are the canaries in the economic coalmine. Smaller companies are less diversified and have less exposure abroad, which makes them more vulnerable to changes in the US economy....   READ MORE 

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COAL, METALS AND STEEL ETFS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- DOLLAR FORMS BULLISH ENGULFING AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- GOLD FAILS TO HOLD FLAG BREAKOUT -- 7-10 YEAR T-BOND ETF FAILS AT RESISTANCE -- EUROPEAN FINANCE SECTOR HITS RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COAL, METALS AND STEEL ETFS HAVE WEAK SCTR... Link for todays video. Signs of weakness are showing up in key parts of the materials sector. The Coal Vectors ETF (KOL), Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) and Steel ETF (SLX) have low SCTR scores (<30) and all three are trading...   READ MORE 

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WEAK DOLLAR CONTINUES TO PUSH PRECIOUS METAL ASSETS HIGHER -- SILVER HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED FOURTH QUARTER HIGH -- COEUR D ALENE MINES APPEARS ON VERGE OF BULLISH BREAKOUT -- GOLDCORP IS LEADING GOLD MINERS HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... After peaking in early January, the U.S. Dollar Index continues to lose ground. Chart 1 shows today's dollar drop approaching a test of its 200-day moving average. When the dollar drops, commodities rise. And they've been doing just that since...   READ MORE 

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IWM BOUNCES TO HOLD CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT -- FINANCE SECTOR CONSOLIDATES AFTER BIG GAINS -- TLT FORMS POTENTIAL CUP-WITH-HANDLE -- OIL AND GASOLINE BECOME OVEREXTENDED -- DAX STALLS AT BROKEN SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM BOUNCES TO HOLD CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Stocks moved lower on Mondays open, but quickly surged after a report showed pending home sales at their highest level since April 2010. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) falling towards support on the open and then bouncing...   READ MORE 

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WEEKLY MOMENTUM REMAINS BULLISH FOR SPY -- DOW TRANSPORTS HAVE YET TO CONFIRM DOW INDUSTRIALS -- BROKEN RESISTANCE TURNS FIRST SUPPORT FOR DOW TRANSPORTS -- SUGAR BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE WITH STRONG MOVE -- BOLLINGER BANDS CONTRACT FOR AGRICULTURE ETF

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEEKLY MOMENTUM REMAINS BULLISH FOR SPY... Link for todays video. Upside momentum may not be as strong as it was in February 2011, but momentum is clearly bullish and moving in the right direction. Earlier this week I showed the Average Directional Index (ADX) moving to an extreme (above 40)...   READ MORE