Members Only

MEMBERS ONLY

COMMODITIES START TO CATCH UP TO STOCKS -- ENERGY AND PRECIOUS METALS ARE LEADING THE COMMODITY RALLY -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS CLEAR 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD MINERS ETF MAY BE BOTTOMING -- GDX LEADERS INCLUDE SILVER WHEATON, YAMANA, AND RANDGOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITIES ARE TURNING UP... One of the characteristics of the "new normal" in intermarket relationships that has existed over the last decade has been the close correlation between stock and commodity prices. In other words, stock and commodities prices have usually trended in the same direction. Both peaked...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SMALL-CAPS LAG SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY -- FINANCE SECTOR PERFORMANCE ALSO FLATTENS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR LAGS SINCE JANUARY -- IWM CONSOLIDATES AFTER GAP -- TREND STRENGTH INDICATOR REACHES AN EXTREME FOR S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LAGGING SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY... Link for todays video. After leading the stock market from December 19th until February 3rd, small-caps have lagged the broader market the last 2-3 weeks. Chart 1 shows the performance for five major index ETFs since January (year-to-date). IWM was leading the charge with the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

ENERGY SHARES START TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- GASOLINE AND HEATING OIL HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- HOW TO CHART FUTURES CONTRACTS FOR ENERGY SIGNALS -- WHY THE USO ALWAYS LAGS BEHIND PRICE OF CRUDE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY SHARES START TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Energy shares were this week's strongest market sector. That's the first time we've seen relative strength by the energy sector in three months. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) trading at the highest level in...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY SCTRS LEAD -- NASDAQ AND NYSE NET ADVANCING VOLUME OSCILLATORS TURN DOWN -- NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE EXTENDS NINE WEEK SURGE -- NYSE AD VOLUME LINE EXCEEDS 2011 HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY SCTRS LEAD... Link for todays video. Of the nine sector SPDRs, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) have the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The SCTR for the Industrials SPDR (XLI) is in a close third. High SCTR scores indicate that these...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

NIKKEI SURGES ABOVE OCTOBER HIGH -- DOLLAR SURGES OFF KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- GOLD BOUNCES WITHIN FALLING FLAG -- GOLD MINER ETFS HIT INFLECTION POINT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NIKKEI SURGES ABOVE OCTOBER HIGH... Link for todays video. Asian markets moved higher on Wednesday with the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) leading the charge. I featured the Nikkei in the Market Message on January 23rd as it surged above 8750 and weekly PPO moved above its signal line. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

A LOT OF INTERMARKET DIVERGENCES ARE SHOWING UP ON PRICE CHARTS -- BOND YIELDS AREN'T RISING WITH STOCKS -- NEITHER ARE COMMODITIES OR FOREIGN STOCKS -- CANADIAN DOLLAR AND STOCK MARKET REMAIN STALLED AT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD DIVERGES FROM S&P 500 ... A number of intermarket linkages that have worked for years don't seem to be working in 2012. As a result, a number of intermarket divergences are showing up. One of them is the link between stocks and bond yields. Chart...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

TREASURIES REMAIN LARGELY UNSCATHED BY STOCK MARKET STRENGTH -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ESTABLISHES CLEAR CONSOLIDATION -- OIL ETF BREAKS CHANNEL TRENDLINE -- INDIA SENSEX CHALLENGES CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- COMBINING WEEKLY AND DAILY CCI FOR SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURIES ARE RELATIVELY UNSCATHED BY STOCK MARKET STRENGTH... Link for todays video. In general, stocks and treasury bonds have been negatively correlated for some time. This means one goes up as the other goes down and visa versa. Even though the stock market moved sharply higher in January and broke...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

WHY BALTIC DRY INDEX HASN'T WORKED THIS YEAR -- FLATTENING YIELD CURVE GAVE BIG BOOST TO HOMEBUILDERS -- USING SCTRS TO SPOT ETF AND STOCK LEADERS -- RALLY IN REGIONAL BANKS ADDS CREDIBILITY TO HOMEBUILDING RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BALTIC DRY INDEX DIVERGES FROM GRAIN PRICES... Chip Anderson recently told me that he has received a lot of inquiries about the strange performance of the Baltic Dry Index, and whether that performance carried any important messages. An article in Barrons this morning (Saturday) prompted me to write something on...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GERMAN DAX PULLS BACK SHARPLY AS FRENCH CAC UNDERPERFORMS -- EURO MOVES LOWER AS DOLLAR CHALLENGES TRENDLINE -- GOLD FOLLOWS EURO LOWER AND FORMS POTENTIAL FALLING FLAG -- OIL MOVES LOWER WITHIN FALLING CHANNEL -- SPY GETS COLD FEET AT 2011 HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GERMAN DAX PULLS BACK SHARPLY AS FRENCH CAC UNDERPERFORMS... Link for todays video. Sorry to bring out the Greek card, but it appears that the weekend vote in the Greek parliament is rattling investors. Several sources have labeled this vote a referendum on the Euro. Passage of the austerity measures...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 IS PULLING BACK FROM ITS SUMMER HIGH -- THE FACT THAT THE VIX IS STARTING TO BOUNCE FROM CHART SUPPORT INCREASES THE RISK OF A STOCK PULLBACK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 PULLS BACK FROM SUMMER HIGH ... The stock market is due for a pullback and it appears one may be starting. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 coming within a couple of points of its July intra-day high at 1256 (red circles). It'...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCK ADVANCE SLOWS, BUT REFUSES TO BUCKLE -- FINANCE IS THE TOP SECTOR FOR 2012 -- FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY SECTORS EXTEND HIGHER -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF RECORDS 52-WEEK HIGH -- NVIDIA AND INTEGRATED DEVICE TECH BREAK AUTUMN HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK ADVANCE SLOWS, BUT REFUSES TO BUCKLE... Link for todays video. The stock market remains in an utprend overall, but trading has turned indecisive over the last few days. Basically, stocks are in a holding pattern of sorts. The trend is clearly up and turning bearish now would be an...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

WEAK DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES, STOCKS, AND FOREIGN SHARES -- RISING AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IS SIGN OF OPTIMISM -- GOLD BREAKS OUT AND INCREASES ODDS FOR CRB UPTURN -- FOREIGN SHARES CLEAR 200-DAY LINE AND ARE PLAYING CATCH-UP TO THE US

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX HITS THREE-MONTH LOW... The U.S. Dollar Index peaked a month ago and has been falllng since then. It fell to the lowest level in three months today. That has a lot of important intermarket implications. The most direct beneficiaries are commodities -- and gold in particular. Chart...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BRENT OUTPERFORMS WTI AND BREAKS RESISTANCE -- ENERGY ETFS HOLD THEIR BREAKOUTS -- EURO ETF STALLS AT FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT -- DOLLAR ETF FIRMS NEAR EARLY DECEMBER LOW -- GOLD BECOMES OVERBOUGHT AND TAKES A HIT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BRENT OUTPERFORMS WTI AND BREAKS RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI), also known as light sweet crude, is used to benchmark oil prices in the US. Light refers to the density and sweet refers to the sulfur content, both of which are low. Brent Crude, which...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

S&P 500 ETF CHALLENGES 2011 HIGHS -- NASDAQ 100 ETF HOLDS NECKLINE BREAKOUT -- TREASURY YIELDS SURGE ON STRONG EMPLOYMENT REPORT -- 7-10 YEAR T-BOND ETF FORMS BEARISH THRUST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 ETF CHALLENGES 2011 HIGHS... Link for todays video. A string of positive economic-related reports lifted stocks on Friday and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is poised to close higher for the fifth consecutive week. Factory Orders expanded at a healthy clip, IWM Services expanded...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SMALL-CAPS AND LARGE-TECHS LEAD YEAR-TO-DATE -- JANUARY BAROMETER BODES WELL FOR STOCKS -- CORRELATION TURNS POSITIVE FOR STOCKS AND TREASURIES -- CORRELATION TURNS NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS AND OIL -- CRUDE OIL REMAINS WITHIN FALLING WEDGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS AND LARGE-TECHS LEAD YEAR-TO-DATE... Link for todays video. Before looking as small-cap performance, lets distinguish between the January barometer and the January effect. The January barometer refers to the historical tendency for January performance to set the tone for the entire year. As January goes, so goes the rest...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

WHY CANADA IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE GLOBAL INTERMARKET PICTURE -- CANADIAN STOCKS ARE STALLED AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO IS THE CANADIAN DOLLAR AND CRB INDEX -- WHAT THEY DO FROM HERE WILL HELP DETERMINE DIRECTION OF U.S. STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CLOSELY CORRELATED WITH US MARKET ... Last Thursday's message argued for the inclusion of Canada in a foreign stock portfolio. I'm going to expand on Canada's unique role in the global intermarket picture in this message. In my view, Canada is unique for at least...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BROKEN RESISTANCE LEVELS TURN FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY -- EUROPEAN TOP 100 INDEX TURNS DOWN AT RESISTANCE -- PORTUGUESE STOCK INDEX BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT -- DOLLAR ETF BOUNCES OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT -- EURO ETF HITS RESISTANCE FROM BROKEN SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BROKEN RESISTANCE LEVELS TURN FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY... Link for todays video. It is no secret that stocks became overbought after big moves the last few weeks and months. While overbought conditions do not guarantee a correction, they certainly increase the odds for a correction. Chart 1 shows the S&...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPOT LIGHT CRUDE FORMS INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS -- GASOLINE ETF BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE -- ENERGY SPDR HITS WALL OF RESISTANCE -- MEASURING BREADTH WITH THE PERCENT OF STOCKS ABOVE A SMA -- 80% OF S&P 500 STOCKS ARE ABOVE THEIR 150-DAY SMA

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPOT LIGHT CRUDE FORMS INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS ... Link for todays video. Whats it going to be for crude? Even though stocks are higher and the Dollar is lower the last few weeks, crude is down and not responding very well. Chart 1 shows Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) surging along with the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL STOCK ETFS -- WHY THEY NEED TO CLEAR THEIR FOURTH QUARTER HIGHS -- VANGUARD ALL-WORLD EX-US ETF OFFERS BETTER FOREIGN DIVERSICATION THAN EAFE ISHARES BY INCLUDING BRAZIL AND CANADA

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EAFE ISHARES ... EAFE iShares (EFA) are viewed as the premier ETF for foreign developed markets. EAFE includes stocks in ten of the world's largest developed markets in Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. It's biggest weighting, however, is in Europe (57%). The United Kingdom is its...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

LARGE-CAP TECHS LEAD AS STOCKS GET OVEREXTENDED -- GOLD SPDR BREAKS WEDGE TRENDLINE AFTER FED STATEMENT -- GOLD MINERS FOLLOW GOLD HIGHER -- JUNIOR GOLD MINERS OUTPERFORM THE SENIORS -- BARRICK AND GOLDCORP LEAD THE GOLD MINER SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LARGE-CAP TECHS LEAD AS STOCKS GET OVEREXTENDED... Link for todays video. All of the major index ETFs were up on Wednesday with gains ranging from .65% for the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) to 1.26% for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). Admittedly, these are relatively modest gains for such a...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPX ELLIOTT COUNT POINTS TO WAVE-B OR WAVE-II -- PROJECTING THE TARGET FOR AN ABC ZIGZAG -- NIKKEI CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- NIKKEI SURGES ABOVE LATE DECEMBER HIGH -- NARROWING THE FOCUS WITH OUR SEARCH ENGINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPX ELLIOTT COUNT SUGGEST CURRENT ADVANCE IS CORRECTIVE... Link for todays video. It is time once again to open Pandoras box with some Elliott Wave analysis. First, note that there are only three rules for Elliott Wave Theory. Rule 1: Wave-2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave-1. Rule 2:...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

AIRLINE INDEX CHALLENGES OCTOBER HIGHS -- UNITED-CONTINENTAL, DELTA AND SOUTHWEST TAKEOFF IN 2012 -- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD HITS 4-MONTH HIGH -- LONG-TERM RATES ALSO SURGED THIS WEEK -- GOLD NEARS FALLING WEDGE RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AIRLINE INDEX CHALLENGES OCTOBER HIGHS... Link for todays video. Led by railroad, trucking and air-freight stocks, the Dow Transports exceeded its October high with a surge in early January. Airlines have been lagging, but may be poised to play catch-up as the Amex Airline Index ($XAL) challenges resistance. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ EXCEED FOURTH QUARTER HIGHS -- WEAKNESS IN EURO MAY BE OVERSTATING DOLLAR WEAKNESS -- THAT'S STILL CAUSING FOREIGN SHARES TO LAG BEHIND THE US -- GERMAN, CHINESE, AND CANADIAN STOCKS STILL NEED TO ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLEAR FOURTH QUARTER RESISTANCE... The U.S. stock market continues to lead the rest of the world higher. Charts 1 and 2 show the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes clearing their fourth quarter highs, which puts them in position to challenge...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

TECHNOLOGY AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDRS CHALLENGE SUMMER HIGHS -- RETAIL ETFS BREAK RESISTANCE IN SHOW OF STRENGTH -- AMAZON AND HOME DEPOT LEAD RETAILERS -- SEMIS LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- FIRSTTRUST INTERNET ETF BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDRS CHALLENGE SUMMER HIGHS ... Link for todays video. Stocks were broadly higher on Wednesday with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) leading the way. Chart 1 shows XLK challenging resistance in the 26.5 area. Resistance in this area turned the ETF...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FINANCE SECTOR LEADS MARKET LOWER -- EURO PLUNGES ON S&P DOWNGRADE -- GERMAN DAX AND FRENCH CAC FALL -- BOUNCE IN TREASURIES COULD BE NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS -- RELATIVE PERFORMANCE PERKS UP FOR SMALL-CAPS AND THE NASDAQ

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SECTOR LEADS MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. An earnings miss from JP Morgan weighed on the finance sector and the market early Friday. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dipping below 128 and filling Tuesdays gap. Even though SPY closed higher Wednesday and Thursday,...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

A STRONGER DOLLAR IS BETTER FOR US STOCKS -- FOREIGN STOCKS, HOWEVER, STILL NEED TO CONFIRM UPTURN IN US MARKET -- BUT CAN US STOCKS SHAKE THEIR INVERSE LINK TO THE GREENBACK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING DOLLAR IS BETTER FOR US STOCKS... There's good and bad news in the recent rally in the U.S. dollar. First the good news. The past year's dollar rebound appears to be part of a major bottoming formation that started during 2008. Starting with that...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RETAIL SPDR CONSOLIDATES AS RETAIL SALES REPORT LOOMS -- STOCKS HOLD UP AS EURO SINKS TO NEW LOWS -- UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLES SECTORS SHUNNED IN 2012 -- BRAZIL AND RUSSIA LEAD THE BRICS -- BOVESPA BREAKS TRIANGLE TRENDLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SPDR CONSOLIDATES AS RETAIL SALES REPORT LOOMS... Link for todays video. With December retail sales scheduled for tomorrow, retailers are on the hot seat and the Retail SPDR (XRT) is at a make-or-break level. Chart 1 shows XRT surging above 53 with a sharp six day move that began...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SEMIS LEAD WITH A MOVE ABOVE DECEMBER HIGH -- INTEL, XILINX AND MICRON MAKE A MOVE -- GOLD MINERS ETFS CONSOLIDATE AFTER SURGE -- OIL SERVICE ETFS WEIGHED DOWN BY SCHLUMBERGER -- TRANSPORTS AND INDUSTRIALS CLEAR OCTOBER HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMIS LEAD WITH A MOVE ABOVE EARLY DECEMBER HIGH... Link for todays video. Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH), which is now part of a Market Vectors ETF clan, is showing relative strength in 2012 with a triangle breakout and surge above the early December high. Chart 1 shows SMH surging above 32...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

WEEKLY INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH FOR SPY -- IGNORING THE NOVEMBER LOW TO MARK KEY SUPPORT -- NETWORKING ISHARES RETRACES 62% WITH FALLING WEDGE -- NYSE AD LINE AND AD VOLUME LINE REMAIN STRONG -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS CONTINUES TO EXPAND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEEKLY INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH FOR SPY... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) extended its yearend rally with a move above 127.5 this week. Chart 1 shows weekly candlesticks over the last two and a half years. Focusing on price action since July, we can...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

NASDAQ INDEXES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- TWO NASDAQ LEADERS ARE SIRIUS XM RADIO AND MARVEL TECHNOLOGY -- MICROSOFT IS BREAKING OUT -- BANK AND HOUSING ETFS CONTINUE TO RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ INDEXES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 indexes have already cleared overhead resistance barriers. The Nasdaq market may be next. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index trying to close above its 200-day moving average. That would be a positive development for it and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RUSSELL 2000 ETF AND S&P EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF CHALLENGE 200-DAY SMAS -- RISE IN LONG-TERM RATES FAVORS RISK-ON TRADE -- ENERGY AND MATERIALS SPDRS BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- GERMAN DAX AND FRENCH CAC RUN INTO RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ETF AND S&P EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF CHALLENGE 200-DAY SMAS... Link for todays video. With the late December surge and Tuesdays gaps, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) are both challenging their 200-day moving averages. These two ETFs are...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

NEW YEAR OFF TO A STRONG START -- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES ARE JUMPING WHILE BONDS ARE SELLING OFF -- COMMODITY CURRENCIES LEAD RALLY AGAINST THE DOLLAR -- OIL NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT AS ENERGY SPDR CLEARS 200-DAY LINE -- MASCO LEADS INDUSTRIAL SECTOR HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS FROM OCTOBER PEAK ... One of the contributing factors behind today's jump in global stocks and commodities is the drop in the U.S. Dollar. Chart 1 shows the DB Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) gapping lower today and threatening short-term support at its December low. That...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

IWM AND MDY CHALLENGE NECKLINE RESISTANCE -- SPY BOUNCES ON LOW SEASONAL VOLUME -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS ARE TRADING ABOVE OCTOBER HIGHS -- OFFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS ON CHARTS -- HAPPY NEW YEAR!

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND MDY CHALLENGE NECKLINE RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Going into 2012, some of the major index ETFs are at important make-or-break levels. These major index ETFs include the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA), S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTH -- PHM AND MASCO MAY BE NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR IS TOP BANKING ETF -- THAT'S DUE MAINLY TO THE EXCLUSION OF BIG TROUBLED BANKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN... Last Thursday's message was about a strengthening housing sector. It showed two housing-related ETFs climbing over their 200-day moving averages for the first time in several months. Those upside breakouts are holding. In fact, homebuilders are one of today's strongest groups. Chart...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DIVIDEND ISHARES BREAK OUT -- FALLING BOND YIELDS ARE ONE OF THE REASONS WHY -- PROCTER & GAMBLE IS LATEST STAPLE BREAKOUT -- WALMART IS ALSO ATTEMPTING A MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT -- AT&T EXCEEDS ITS OCTOBER HIGH -- REIT ETF NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIVIDEND ISHARES HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH ... One of the consistent themes that we've written about since the spring is the rotation toward large dividend-paying stocks. Many of those stocks are also in defensive stock groups that include healthcare, staples, and utilities. There's no sign of that trend...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

S&P 500 CLOSES BACK ABOVE 12-MONTH EMA -- NASDAQ 12-MONTH RATE-OF-CHANGE TURNS NEGATIVE -- US DOLLAR INDEX BOUNCES OFF MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL -- CRB INDEX BREAKS BELOW LONG-TERM TRENDLINE -- OIL MAINTAINS STRONG POSITIVE CORRELATION WITH S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 CLOSES BACK ABOVE 12-MONTH EMA... Link for todays video. Today I am going to take a big step back and look at the monthly charts for the major intermarket assets: stocks, bonds, the Dollar, gold and oil. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 with...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

HOUSING ETFS CLEAR 200-DAY LINES -- A COMPARISON OF HOUSING ETFS SHOWS WHY XHB IS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO -- DR HORTON AND LENNAR ARE HOMEBUILDING LEADERS -- A NUMBER OF REGIONAL BANKS ARE ALSO CLEARING 200-DAY LINES -- US BANCORP IS THE STRONGEST ONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOUSING ETFS START TO OUTPERFORM... For the first time in a long time, stocks tied to housing are starting to show good absolute and relative performance. The two main housing ETFs that I follow have moved back above their 200-day moving averages. In case you're thinking of nibbling...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

QQQ CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- INTERNET, SEMICONDUCTOR AND NETWORKING ETFS MOVE LOWER -- SPY GOES NOWHERE AS TRIANGLE TAKES SHAPE -- BASE METALS ETF BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- COPPER TESTS TRIANGLE SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. An earnings miss from Oracle hit the stock and the technology sector hard on Wednesday. With a market cap of $127 billion, Oracle (ORCL) is still a technology titan that carries lots of weight within the industry. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY AND IWM RETAKE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- INDUSTRIALS SPDR TRACES OUT AN INVERSE HS PATTERN -- GE AND UPS LEAD XLI HIGHER -- FINANCE SPDR FORMS BIG DIAMOND -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR HOLDS GAP WITH PENNANT FORMATION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY AND IWM RETAKE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES... Link for todays video. Stocks surged in early trading on Wednesday with a broad rally that lifted all sectors. The combination of oversold conditions and a bounce in the Euro triggered some pre-Christmas buying pressure, which may just be the start of the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS AND COMMODITIES REMAIN ON THE DEFENSIVE -- BANKS AND FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- GOLD BREAKS 200-DAY AVERAGE AS DOLLAR BREAKS RESISTANCE -- BOND YIELD FALLS SOME MORE -- AMGEN IS NEWEST HEALTHCARE LEADER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN STOCKS LEADING US LOWER... Last week I pointed out that the rising dollar was taking a bigger toll on foreign stocks than those in the U.S. That continues to be the case. Today's 2% loss pushed Emerging iShares (EEM) further below their 50-day average and closer...   READ MORE