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TECHNOLOGY AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDRS CHALLENGE SUMMER HIGHS -- RETAIL ETFS BREAK RESISTANCE IN SHOW OF STRENGTH -- AMAZON AND HOME DEPOT LEAD RETAILERS -- SEMIS LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- FIRSTTRUST INTERNET ETF BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDRS CHALLENGE SUMMER HIGHS ... Link for todays video. Stocks were broadly higher on Wednesday with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) leading the way. Chart 1 shows XLK challenging resistance in the 26.5 area. Resistance in this area turned the ETF...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SECTOR LEADS MARKET LOWER -- EURO PLUNGES ON S&P DOWNGRADE -- GERMAN DAX AND FRENCH CAC FALL -- BOUNCE IN TREASURIES COULD BE NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS -- RELATIVE PERFORMANCE PERKS UP FOR SMALL-CAPS AND THE NASDAQ

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SECTOR LEADS MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. An earnings miss from JP Morgan weighed on the finance sector and the market early Friday. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dipping below 128 and filling Tuesdays gap. Even though SPY closed higher Wednesday and Thursday,...   READ MORE 

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A STRONGER DOLLAR IS BETTER FOR US STOCKS -- FOREIGN STOCKS, HOWEVER, STILL NEED TO CONFIRM UPTURN IN US MARKET -- BUT CAN US STOCKS SHAKE THEIR INVERSE LINK TO THE GREENBACK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING DOLLAR IS BETTER FOR US STOCKS... There's good and bad news in the recent rally in the U.S. dollar. First the good news. The past year's dollar rebound appears to be part of a major bottoming formation that started during 2008. Starting with that...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR CONSOLIDATES AS RETAIL SALES REPORT LOOMS -- STOCKS HOLD UP AS EURO SINKS TO NEW LOWS -- UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLES SECTORS SHUNNED IN 2012 -- BRAZIL AND RUSSIA LEAD THE BRICS -- BOVESPA BREAKS TRIANGLE TRENDLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SPDR CONSOLIDATES AS RETAIL SALES REPORT LOOMS... Link for todays video. With December retail sales scheduled for tomorrow, retailers are on the hot seat and the Retail SPDR (XRT) is at a make-or-break level. Chart 1 shows XRT surging above 53 with a sharp six day move that began...   READ MORE 

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SEMIS LEAD WITH A MOVE ABOVE DECEMBER HIGH -- INTEL, XILINX AND MICRON MAKE A MOVE -- GOLD MINERS ETFS CONSOLIDATE AFTER SURGE -- OIL SERVICE ETFS WEIGHED DOWN BY SCHLUMBERGER -- TRANSPORTS AND INDUSTRIALS CLEAR OCTOBER HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMIS LEAD WITH A MOVE ABOVE EARLY DECEMBER HIGH... Link for todays video. Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH), which is now part of a Market Vectors ETF clan, is showing relative strength in 2012 with a triangle breakout and surge above the early December high. Chart 1 shows SMH surging above 32...   READ MORE 

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WEEKLY INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH FOR SPY -- IGNORING THE NOVEMBER LOW TO MARK KEY SUPPORT -- NETWORKING ISHARES RETRACES 62% WITH FALLING WEDGE -- NYSE AD LINE AND AD VOLUME LINE REMAIN STRONG -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS CONTINUES TO EXPAND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEEKLY INDICATORS REMAIN BULLISH FOR SPY... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) extended its yearend rally with a move above 127.5 this week. Chart 1 shows weekly candlesticks over the last two and a half years. Focusing on price action since July, we can...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ INDEXES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- TWO NASDAQ LEADERS ARE SIRIUS XM RADIO AND MARVEL TECHNOLOGY -- MICROSOFT IS BREAKING OUT -- BANK AND HOUSING ETFS CONTINUE TO RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ INDEXES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 indexes have already cleared overhead resistance barriers. The Nasdaq market may be next. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index trying to close above its 200-day moving average. That would be a positive development for it and...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 ETF AND S&P EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF CHALLENGE 200-DAY SMAS -- RISE IN LONG-TERM RATES FAVORS RISK-ON TRADE -- ENERGY AND MATERIALS SPDRS BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- GERMAN DAX AND FRENCH CAC RUN INTO RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ETF AND S&P EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF CHALLENGE 200-DAY SMAS... Link for todays video. With the late December surge and Tuesdays gaps, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) are both challenging their 200-day moving averages. These two ETFs are...   READ MORE 

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NEW YEAR OFF TO A STRONG START -- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES ARE JUMPING WHILE BONDS ARE SELLING OFF -- COMMODITY CURRENCIES LEAD RALLY AGAINST THE DOLLAR -- OIL NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT AS ENERGY SPDR CLEARS 200-DAY LINE -- MASCO LEADS INDUSTRIAL SECTOR HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS FROM OCTOBER PEAK ... One of the contributing factors behind today's jump in global stocks and commodities is the drop in the U.S. Dollar. Chart 1 shows the DB Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) gapping lower today and threatening short-term support at its December low. That...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND MDY CHALLENGE NECKLINE RESISTANCE -- SPY BOUNCES ON LOW SEASONAL VOLUME -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS ARE TRADING ABOVE OCTOBER HIGHS -- OFFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS ON CHARTS -- HAPPY NEW YEAR!

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND MDY CHALLENGE NECKLINE RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Going into 2012, some of the major index ETFs are at important make-or-break levels. These major index ETFs include the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA), S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and...   READ MORE 

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HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTH -- PHM AND MASCO MAY BE NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR IS TOP BANKING ETF -- THAT'S DUE MAINLY TO THE EXCLUSION OF BIG TROUBLED BANKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN... Last Thursday's message was about a strengthening housing sector. It showed two housing-related ETFs climbing over their 200-day moving averages for the first time in several months. Those upside breakouts are holding. In fact, homebuilders are one of today's strongest groups. Chart...   READ MORE 

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DIVIDEND ISHARES BREAK OUT -- FALLING BOND YIELDS ARE ONE OF THE REASONS WHY -- PROCTER & GAMBLE IS LATEST STAPLE BREAKOUT -- WALMART IS ALSO ATTEMPTING A MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT -- AT&T EXCEEDS ITS OCTOBER HIGH -- REIT ETF NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIVIDEND ISHARES HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH ... One of the consistent themes that we've written about since the spring is the rotation toward large dividend-paying stocks. Many of those stocks are also in defensive stock groups that include healthcare, staples, and utilities. There's no sign of that trend...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 CLOSES BACK ABOVE 12-MONTH EMA -- NASDAQ 12-MONTH RATE-OF-CHANGE TURNS NEGATIVE -- US DOLLAR INDEX BOUNCES OFF MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL -- CRB INDEX BREAKS BELOW LONG-TERM TRENDLINE -- OIL MAINTAINS STRONG POSITIVE CORRELATION WITH S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 CLOSES BACK ABOVE 12-MONTH EMA... Link for todays video. Today I am going to take a big step back and look at the monthly charts for the major intermarket assets: stocks, bonds, the Dollar, gold and oil. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 with...   READ MORE 

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HOUSING ETFS CLEAR 200-DAY LINES -- A COMPARISON OF HOUSING ETFS SHOWS WHY XHB IS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO -- DR HORTON AND LENNAR ARE HOMEBUILDING LEADERS -- A NUMBER OF REGIONAL BANKS ARE ALSO CLEARING 200-DAY LINES -- US BANCORP IS THE STRONGEST ONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOUSING ETFS START TO OUTPERFORM... For the first time in a long time, stocks tied to housing are starting to show good absolute and relative performance. The two main housing ETFs that I follow have moved back above their 200-day moving averages. In case you're thinking of nibbling...   READ MORE 

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QQQ CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- INTERNET, SEMICONDUCTOR AND NETWORKING ETFS MOVE LOWER -- SPY GOES NOWHERE AS TRIANGLE TAKES SHAPE -- BASE METALS ETF BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- COPPER TESTS TRIANGLE SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. An earnings miss from Oracle hit the stock and the technology sector hard on Wednesday. With a market cap of $127 billion, Oracle (ORCL) is still a technology titan that carries lots of weight within the industry. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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SPY AND IWM RETAKE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- INDUSTRIALS SPDR TRACES OUT AN INVERSE HS PATTERN -- GE AND UPS LEAD XLI HIGHER -- FINANCE SPDR FORMS BIG DIAMOND -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR HOLDS GAP WITH PENNANT FORMATION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY AND IWM RETAKE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES... Link for todays video. Stocks surged in early trading on Wednesday with a broad rally that lifted all sectors. The combination of oversold conditions and a bounce in the Euro triggered some pre-Christmas buying pressure, which may just be the start of the...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS AND COMMODITIES REMAIN ON THE DEFENSIVE -- BANKS AND FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- GOLD BREAKS 200-DAY AVERAGE AS DOLLAR BREAKS RESISTANCE -- BOND YIELD FALLS SOME MORE -- AMGEN IS NEWEST HEALTHCARE LEADER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN STOCKS LEADING US LOWER... Last week I pointed out that the rising dollar was taking a bigger toll on foreign stocks than those in the U.S. That continues to be the case. Today's 2% loss pushed Emerging iShares (EEM) further below their 50-day average and closer...   READ MORE 

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SEPARATING PRIMARY FROM SECONDARY MOVEMENTS -- S&P 1500 ETF HAS TROUBLE HOLDING THE BREAKOUT -- RETAIL SPDR STILL TRADING NEAR SUMMER HIGHS -- BROKEN SUPPORT TURNS RESISTANCE FOR TRANSPORT ISHARES -- LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO FALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEPARATING PRIMARY MOVEMENTS FROM SECONDARY MOVEMENTS... Link for todays video. Today I am going to focus on weekly charts for a long-term perspective. Charles Dow identified three general movements in the market: primary, secondary and random fluctuations. The primary trend is, of course, the biggest and the most important. Secondary...   READ MORE 

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PHARMACEUTICAL STOCKS LEAD HEALTHCARE HIGHER -- DRUG LEADERS ARE BMY, PFIZER, AND LLY -- ABBOTT LABS MAY BE ON VERGE OF BULLISH BREAKOUT -- EVEN MERCK IS RISING -- DRUG LEADERSHIP SHOWS INVESTORS ARE STILL IN DEFENSIVE MOOD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDERS OUTPERFORM HEALTHCARE SPDR... Arthur Hill yesterday showed market leadership by defensive stocks that include staples, healthcare, and utilities. That defensive leadership started with the market peak last spring, and has re-asserted itself again recently. I've been focusing mainly on pharmaceutical stocks in recent messages. That'...   READ MORE 

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QQQ FILLS GAP AS IWM BREAKS 50-DAY SMA -- TWO OF FOUR OFFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- XLY AND XLK FAIL AT RESISTANCE LEVELS -- GOLD BREAKS LONG-TERM TRENDLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ FILLS GAP AS IWM BREAKS 50-DAY SMA... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the major index ETFs lower on Wednesday and filled the big gap. Chart 1 shows QQQ forming lower highs from July to October and from early November to early December. With a...   READ MORE 

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US STOCKS HOLD UP BETTER THAN FOREIGN STOCKS DURING 2011 -- A RISING DOLLAR IS A BIG REASON WHY -- DESIRE FOR SAFETY ALSO EXPLAINS WHY THE DOW HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMER IN THE US THIS YEAR ALONG WITH DIVIDEND STOCKS -- PFIZERS NEARS FIVE-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

US HOLDS UP BETTER THAN FOREIGN DEVELOPED MARKETS ... Although it's been a rough year for all global stocks, U.S. stocks have held up better than everyone else's. Chart 1 compares the S&P 500 to the world's biggest stock markets during 2011....   READ MORE 

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IWM GETS CAUGHT IN MOVING AVERAGE SANDWICH -- SPY FAILS AT 200-DAY SMA -- RYDEX S&P EQUAL WEIGHT ETF UNDERPERFORMS SPY -- EURO PLUNGES AS MARKETS RE-ASSESS EU SUMMIT -- ENERGY SPDR LEADS SECTORS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM GETS CAUGHT IN MOVING AVERAGE SANDWICH ... Link for todays video. Stocks were down sharply in early trading on Monday with small-caps leading the way lower. With this move, the 200-day moving average is marking resistance for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Despite todays decline, the 50-day line is still...   READ MORE 

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DAX AND DOW BOUNCE AS EU SUMMIT WINDS DOWN -- THE NOOSE NARROWS AS GOLD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE -- GOLD MINERS ETF FILLS GAP WITH FALLING WEDGE -- BASE METALS ETF FORMS TRIANGLE WITHIN DOWNTREND -- SPOT CRUDE HITS RESISTANCE AT KEY RETRACEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DAX AND DOW BOUNCE AS EU SUMMIT WINDS DOWN... Link for todays video. European stocks were higher on Friday as the EU summit winds down. Success or failure depends on one definitions and expectations. Regardless of the outcome, stocks in the US and Europe moved higher Friday. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES REMAIN HOSTAGE TO WEAK EURO -- FALLING BOND YIELDS WEIGH ON STOCKS -- A LOT OF 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING TESTED -- RECENT DRUG BREAKOUTS INCLUDE BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB AND LILLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING EURO WEIGHS ON STOCKS AND COMMODITIES ... The most important market of the day remains the Euro. That's because the European currency has become the proxy for how things are going in Europe. Unfortunately, the chart picture isn't that encouraging. Chart 1 shows the Euro trading...   READ MORE 

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DIA AND IWM STALL AFTER BIG MOVES -- REVIEWING DIFFERENT HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS -- QQQ TRACES OUT INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERN -- RETAIL HOLDRS HITS 52-WEEK HIGH WITH STRONG SCTR -- WAL-MART AND HOME DEPOT POWER RTH HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA AND IWM STALL AFTER BIG MOVES... Link for todays video. The stock market appears to be holding its breadth as the European summit and European Central Bank (ECB) policy statement loom later this week. The late November surges are holding, but resistance levels are coming into play. The Dow...   READ MORE 

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GOLD MOVES LOWER DESPITE STRENGTH IN STOCKS -- TREASURIES FALL AS RISK-ON TRADE TAKES HOLD -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS SLOWLY STRENGTHEN -- NASDAQ NET NEW HIGHS ARE SLOW TO IMPROVE -- P&F DOUBLE TOP BREAKOUT VERSUS DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD MOVES LOWER DESPITE STRENGTH IN STOCKS... Link for todays video. For whatever reason, stocks and gold have been positively correlated since late September. It is a strange pairing, but chart 1 confirms this relationship. The first indicator window shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) in red and the S&...   READ MORE 

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STOCK RALLY STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EURO DROP ON FRIDAY MAY EXPLAIN WHY -- COMMODITIES BOUNCE REMAINS BELOW RESISTANCE -- 70% OF NYSE STOCKS ARE BACK ABOVE 50-DAY LINES -- BOND YIELDS DON'T KEEP PACE WITH STOCK RALLY -- WATCH EUROPEAN BONDS FOR CLUES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK RALLY STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE... This past week's impressive stock rally ran into some profit-taking on Friday just shy of 200-day moving averages. Charts 1 and 2 show the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Indexex closing near their daily lows after nearing that important...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 ETF BREAKS RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- TARZAN MARKET CONTINUES WITH WIDE SWINGS -- ABC CORRECTION TARGETS MOVE TO SUMMER HIGHS -- PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND FOURTH YEAR CYCLE ARE BULLISH -- SIX-MONTH CYCLE TURNED BULLISH IN NOVEMBER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 ETF BREAKS RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with a Raff Regression Channel defining the November downswing. I showed this chart with a falling flag on Wednesday and labeled last weeks dip below 118...   READ MORE 

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STAPLES SPDR HITS NEW RECORD -- STAPLE LEADERS INCLUDE COSTCO, SARA LEE, AND TYSON -- HEALTHCARE LEADERS INCLUDE MEDTRONIC AND QUEST DIAGNOSTICS -- PFIZER CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- ABBOTT LABS NEARS RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR HITS RECORD HIGH ... Despite the renewed optimism arising from yesterday's strong market rally, defensive stocks are still showing relative strength and strong chart action. The best performers are consumer staples. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Staples Sector SPDR (XLP) trading at a new record high....   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SECTOR SOARS ON CENTRAL BANK ACTION -- REGIONAL BANKS OUTPERFORMING BIG BANKS -- S&P 500 ETF SURGES ABOVE BROKEN SUPPORT -- QQQ CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS SURGES ABOVE BROKEN SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SECTOR SOARS ON CENTRAL BANK ACTION... Link for todays video. Stocks soared on Wednesday as five central banks lowered interest rates on dollar swaps. China also cut its reserve requirement for banks. A dollar swap is basically an emergency dollar loan to foreign banks. The European debt crisis created...   READ MORE 

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BROKEN SUPPORT TURNS FIRST RESISTANCE FOR SPY -- QQQ AND IWM BOUNCE AFTER INVERTED HAMMERS -- SEMIS, INTERNET AND RETAIL ETFS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HOLDS NOVEMBER LOW -- OIL SERVICE HOLDRS UNDERPERFORMS OIL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BROKEN SUPPORT TURNS FIRST RESISTANCE FOR SPY... Link for todays video. Stocks moved sharply higher in early trading as rumors swirled that EU leaders were poised to deliver another rescue package. Recent history shows us that speculating on prospective deals or rumors is a lesson in futility. We can be...   READ MORE 

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RISING DOLLAR HAS NEGATIVE IMPACT ON US STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- IT'S ALSO CAUSING FOREIGN SHARES TO FALL FASTER -- WHILE TREASURIES RALLY, CORPORATE BONDS FALL WITH STOCKS -- DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP IS ANOTHER BAD SIGN FOR MARKET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING DOLLAR PUSHED GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES LOWER... Stocks and commodities fell together this week. That isn't surprising since both asset classes have been positively correlated all year. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the week at a two-month low and well below both moving...   READ MORE 

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TREASURIES AND DOLLAR LEAD SAFE-HAVEN TRADE -- GOLD FIRMS DESPITE THE PLUNGE IN STOCKS -- LONG-TERM RATES REVISIT 2008 LEVELS -- ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT POINTS TO 3 OF 3 FOR S&P 500 -- HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURIES AND DOLLAR LEAD SAFE-HAVEN TRADE... Link for todays video. November is turning out to be as risk-off as October was risk-on. Stocks, the Euro and oil surged in October as the financial markets embraced risk. Confidence started to waver at the end of October and turned completely risk-adverse the...   READ MORE 

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MOVING AVERAGE TRENDS REMAIN BEARISH -- MORE THAN HALF NYSE STOCKS HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGES -- THE FACT THAT CONSUMER STAPLES ARE DOING BETTER THAN DISCRETIONARY STOCKS THIS YEAR IS A NEGATIVE WARNING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

50-DAY LINES REMAIN BELOW 200-DAY... One of the advantages of using moving averages is that they simplify the study of market trends. They tell us the current trend of the market and what needs to happen to reverse that trend. A comparison of 50- and 200-day moving averages is a...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 ETFS BREAK SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE -- STRONG DOLLAR IS NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS AND POSITIVE FOR TREASURIES -- GOLD REVERSES AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- STRONG DOLLAR WEIGHS ON SILVER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 ETFS BREAK SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) both broke support with sharp declines early Monday. SPY is based on the traditional S&P 500, which...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 ETF TURNS BACK AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- S&P 500 ETF HITS RESISTANCE AT AUGUST SUPPORT BREAK -- XLK, XLY AND XLI HOLD OCTOBER BREAKOUTS -- RISING TREASURY PRICES ARE NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ETF TURNS BACK AT KEY RETRACEMENT... Link for todays video. If the stock market were to decline 20% over the next six months, chartists would no doubt be able to look back and identify the bearish signals that led to this decline. This is called hindsight. The key,...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES FALL HARD -- SILVER LOSES 6% -- A LOT OF SUPPORT LEVELS WERE BROKEN -- AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IS HARDEST HIT FOREIGN CURRENCY -- TREASURIES RISE WHILE CORPORATES FALL -- S&P 500 BREAKS CHART SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITIES FALL HARD AS WELL ... Stocks and commodities both fell pretty hard today all around the world. Chart 1 shows the Commodities Tracking Fund (DBC) falling more than 2% to end back below its 50-day average. All commodity groups fell. The day's worst drop was seen in silver....   READ MORE 

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LONGER-TERM INDICATORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE -- % NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE STILL IN BEAR TERRITORY -- SO ARE WEEKLY AND MONTHLY MACD LINES -- TODAY'S BREAKING OF SUPPORT IS TURNING SHORT-TERM TREND LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NYSE % ABOVE 200 MA STILL IN BEAR MARKET... I'm going to focus on some longer term indicators today. And, right now, the ones I'm looking at still warrant a lot of caution. Chart 1, for example, shows the % NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day moving average...   READ MORE 

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IWM CHALLENGES PENNANT TRENDLINE -- FINANCE SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- FINANCE SPDR TESTS SUPPORT -- LIBOR MOVES SHARPLY HIGHER -- US AND UK STOCKS OUTPERFORMING EUROPEAN STOCKS -- GERMAN DAX HOLDS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM CHALLENGES PENNANT TRENDLINE... Link for todays video. Stocks were mixed most of Wednesday, but small-caps were showing some relative strength with modest gains. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) breaking resistance in late October and then consolidating the last few weeks. There are reasons to expect resistance...   READ MORE 

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OIL SERVICE HOLDRS AND TRANSPORT ISHARES FORM PENNANTS -- SEMIS AND REGIONAL BANKS CONTINUE SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- RETAILERS IN THE SPOTLIGHT ON TUESDAY -- NETWORKING ISHARES BREAKS DOUBLE BOTTOM RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OIL SERVICE HOLDRS AND TRANSPORT ISHARES FORM PENNANTS... Link for todays video. With flat trading the last few weeks, a number of stocks and ETFs formed pennant or triangle consolidations. John Murphy noted this pattern in the S&P 500 on Friday. Pennants and triangles are usually continuation patterns...   READ MORE