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1000 POINT SURGE PUTS DOW AT RESISTANCE ZONE -- EURO RETRACES 50% OF SEPTEMBER DECLINE -- LEARNING FROM PRIOR REVERSALS AND FAILURES -- 2010 INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS BOTTOM -- 2008 DOUBLE BOTTOM AND RISING WEDGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

1000 POINT SURGE PUTS DOW AT RESISTANCE ZONE... Link for todays video. The risk-on trade continued its run as stocks moved higher again on Wednesday. Traders move into riskier assets with the risk-on trade and shun riskier assets with the risk-off trade. Risk-on favors stocks, the...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- BOND PRICES DROP AS YIELDS JUMP -- IT'S ALWAYS BETTER WHEN INTERMARKET INFLUENCES CONFIRM INDIVIDUAL CHART ANALYSIS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INTERMARKET TRENDS CONFIRM CHART SIGNALS... Last Thursday I showed some traditional charts that suggested stocks and commodities were due for a rally. In the case of stocks, a lot of global stock and U.S. stock indexes had reached important support at their mid-2010 lows and were in oversold...   READ MORE 

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IWM VOLATILITY REMAINS HIGH AS RESISTANCE ZONE NEARS -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS CHALLENGES SEPTEMBER HIGH -- BROKEN RESISTANCE MARKS NEXT SUPPORT ZONE FOR DOLLAR -- EURO SURGES AS LATEST PLEDGE IS ANNOUNCED -- GOLD ETF CHALLENGES CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM VOLATILITY REMAINS HIGH AS RESISTANCE ZONE NEARS... Link for todays video. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up over 10% in the last five trading days. While this is certainly a strong move, it is still within the realm of the new normal in volatility. Chart 1 shows IWM...   READ MORE 

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DOW SPDR HEADS FOR BIG TEST -- RETAIL SPDR SURGES TOWARDS RESISTANCE -- TREASURIES GET HAMMERED AFTER EMPLOYMENT REPORT -- OIL BOUNCES AS BONDS RETREAT -- OIL SERVICES HOLDRS CONTINUES TO UNDERPERFORM OIL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW SPDR HEADS FOR BIG RESISTANCE TEST... Link for todays video. Point & Figure charts are good for defining key support and resistance levels. In addition, P&F charts at StockCharts.com come with automatic trendlines that can be used to define the trend. Chart 1 shows a 1/...   READ MORE 

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A LOT OF MARKETS ARE TESTING IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS AT THEIR 2010 LOWS -- THAT WOULD BE A LOGICAL SPOT FOR OVERSOLD MARKETS TO ATTEMPT A RALLY -- THE MARKET ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A FIVE-WAVE DECLINE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FOURTH QUARTER REBOUND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN ETFS TESTING 2010 LOWS ... What started off as a potentially bearish week may be turning into something more positive. A large part of the reason for that is the ability of so many global markets to find support at their mid-2010 lows. Given the steepness of the recent...   READ MORE 

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RISING FLAG BREAKDOWN REMAINS FOR SPY -- A POSSIBLE FALLING WEDGE AND A DEFINITIVE DOWNTREND -- NASDAQ RECOVERS AFTER BREAK BELOW AUGUST LOWS -- DELL, INTEL AND MICROSOFT LIFT NASDAQ -- NETWORKING ETF HOLDS AUGUST LOW WITH BULLISH ENGULFING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING FLAG BREAKDOWN REMAINS FOR SPY... Link for todays video. Stocks staged one heck of a come back in the final hour of trading on Tuesday. Actually, the rally was even shorter than that as the surge started around 3:10PM and carried on to the 4PM close. Despite this...   READ MORE 

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LATE BOUNCE PREVENTS BREAKDOWNS NEAR 2010 LOWS -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LEAD AFTERNOON RALLY ON STRONG VOLUME -- UPSIDE REVERSAL DAY KEEPS QQQ OVER AUGUST LOW -- FIVE-WAVE DECLINES OFTEN LEAD TO RALLY ATTEMPTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UPSIDE REVERSAL ON RISING VOLUME... This morning's message showed a number of foreign and U.S. stock indexes testing important support at their mid-2010 lows. Some foreign ETFS (like the EEM and EWG) were actually trading below those levels. By late afternoon, however, upside reversals prevented those...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER AGAIN -- DOWNSIDE TARGET FOR SPY IS AROUND 100 -- WEAKNESS IN RETAILERS PUSHES XLY BELOW SEPTEMBER LOWS -- JUNK BONDS PLUNGE AS TREASURIES SURGE -- DOLLAR EXTENDS SURGE AS EURO PLUNGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER AGAIN... Link for todays video. Stocks moved broadly lower on Monday with small-caps leading the way. All major index ETFs were down 2% or more. Eight of the nine sector SPDRs were down 2% or more. Only the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) was down...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS SHOW LOTS OF MOVEMENT AND NO REAL CHANGE -- DECLINE IN ADX REFLECTS LACK OF TREND IN SPY -- XLK AND XLY FAIL AT KEY RETRACEMENTS -- RETAILERS HOLD THE KEY TO XLY -- NYSE AD VOLUME LINE BREAKS AUGUST LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS SHOW LOTS OF MOVEMENT AND NO REAL CHANGE... Link for todays video. It is clear that the short-term trend is being influenced by news, hope and fear, all of which are four letter words. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August 8th. The...   READ MORE 

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OVERSOLD GERMAN STOCKS ARE TRYING TO STABILIZE -- GERMAN ISHARES ARE ALSO TESTING SUPPORT AT THEIR 2010 LOWS -- FOREIGN ETFS INCORPORATE DOLLAR TRENDS AND, IN MY VIEW, ARE BETTER TO CHART -- NASDAQ COMPOSITE STALLS AT 2600 RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GERMAN DAX STABILIZES NEAR LONG-TERM SUPPORT ... A couple of Thursdays ago (September 15), I included in my market message a story about the German DAX Index trying to bounce from oversold territory after having reached a potential support level. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that's...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MID-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER -- OIL ETF PLUNGES AS BASE METALS ETF HITS NEW LOW -- USING HEIKIN-ASHI CANDLESTICKS TO REDUCE VOLATILITY -- SPY FORMS TRIANGLE ON WEEKLY HEIKIN-ASHI CHART -- WHEN DOES A RISING FLAG BECOME SOMETHING MORE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks moved lower on Wednesday with small-caps leading the way. Before looking at the charts, just a note on the current Euro-Greek hysteria. It all boils down to the economy. If the US economy were strong and...   READ MORE 

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GOLD ENTERS ITS FIFTH CORRECTION SINCE 2006 -- GLD NEARS MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE WITH FREEFALL -- SILVER FOLLOWS GOLD WITH BREAK BELOW MAY-JUNE LOWS -- DOLLAR EXTENDS AFTER DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKOUT -- OIL LEADS THE STOCK MARKET LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD IS IN ITS FIFTH CORRECTION SINCE 2006... Link for todays video. Despite a sharp decline the last two weeks, the Gold SPDR (GLD) remains in a long-term uptrend. Chart 1 shows daily closing prices for Spot Gold ($GOLD) over the last six years. The Zigzag indicator is overlaid...   READ MORE 

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ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS SHOW FIFTH WAVE STARTING -- PRICE CHANNEL PROJECTION FOR SPX -- MEASURING DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR BEAR FLAGS -- TRANSPORT AVERAGE BREAKS AUGUST LOWS -- FEDEX AND UPS BREAK SUPPORTS AND SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS SHOW FIFTH WAVE STARTING... Link for todays video. The Elliott Wave picture shows the S&P 500 in Wave-5 of a five-wave decline (red numbers). Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 peaking in the spring as it hit the fifth (green 5)...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN STOCKS ARE ALREADY IN BEAR MARKET TERRITORY WITH THE US HEADING IN THE SAME DIRECTION -- SURGING DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITIES SHARPLY LOWER -- CHINESE STOCK MARKET HAS ALREADY LOST 30% AND WARNED OF GLOBAL WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GLOBAL BEAR PULLS US MARKET LOWER... One of the basic elements of intermarket analysis is the close linkage among global stock markets. In other words, they rise and fall together. Right now, they're falling. A bad sign for the U.S. market is that foreign markets are falling...   READ MORE 

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YIELDS PLUNGE AND TREASURIES SOAR ON THE FED TWIST -- SMALL-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- STOCKS SELL OFF SHARPLY AFTER FED -- IWM BREAKS NECKLINE SUPPORT ON INTRADAY CHART -- FINANCE, MATERIALS AND ENERGY SPDRS BREAK TRIANGLES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

YIELDS PLUNGE AND TREASURIES SOAR ON THE FED TWIST ... Link for todays video. The Fed made Operation Twist official today. As the name implies, the goal of this program is to twist the yield curve by buying 6-30 Year Treasuries and selling Treasuries with maturities of three years or...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES STALL AT RESISTANCE BARRIERS -- SECTOR ROTATION REFLECTS PESSIMISM -- NEWMONT JUMPS TO RECORD ON RISING GOLD WHILE FCX PLUNGES ALONG WITH COPPER -- CELGENE AND BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB LEAD HEALTHCARE RALLY -- VIX BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 STALLS AT 50-DAY LINE ... Today's modest rally stalled at some important resistance barriers. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 backing off from its 50-day moving average and its late August high. Chart 2 shows the Nasdaq Composite closing just below...   READ MORE 

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SPY FORMS BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERN ON WEEKLY CHART -- SPY GAPS DOWN WITHIN FLAG -- FINANCE SECTOR LEADS THE MARKET LOWER AGAIN -- OIL LEADS COMMODITIES LOWER -- INDUSTRIALS METALS ETF BREAKS AUGUST LOW -- GOLD AND SILVER SUCCUMB TO SELLING PRESSURE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY FORMS BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERN ON WEEKLY CHART... Link for todays video. There can be different trends in different timeframes. A three year weekly chart can show an emerging downtrend, but a three month daily chart can show an uptrend. Moreover, there can, and are, counter-trend rallies within bear...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR RUNS INTO RESISTANCE -- NASDAQ AD LINE HITS NEW LOW AS NYSE AD LINE BOUNCES -- BIG TECHS LIFT NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE -- BANKS WEIGH ON NYSE AD VOLUME LINE -- CUMULATIVE NET NEW HIGHS LINES REMAIN WEAK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR RUNS INTO RESISTANCE... The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is a bit of a conundrum right now. Chart 1 shows the ETF moving into bear mode with a break below the June lows in August. After this decline, the ETF formed a rising flag over the last 5-...   READ MORE 

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VIX IS TESTING BOTTOM END OF SHORT-TERM TRADING RANGE --RISING VOLATILITY IS GOOD FOR DEFENSIVE STOCKS -- NASDAQ RETESTS BROKEN SUPPORT NEAR 2600 -- GERMAN DAX IS BOUNCING FROM OVERSOLD CONDITION BUT REMAINS IN BEAR MARKET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

VIX STALLS AT PREVIOUS RESISTANCE LEVEL ... Two Thursdays ago (September 1) I wrote about the CBOE Volatility (VIX) having reached previous resistance formed during the spring of 2010 near 48. Chart 1 shows that the VIX has backed off from that overhead barrier which has helped stabilize the stock market...   READ MORE 

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LARGE-CAP TECH STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- QQQ ESTABLISHES KEY SUPPORT WITH 3-DAY SURGE -- APPLE, MICROSOFT AND ORACLE SURGE -- RETAILERS SHRUG OFF DISAPPOINTING RETAIL SALES REPORT -- OIL ETF HITS RESISTANCE AS BASE METALS ETF TESTS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LARGE-CAP TECH STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... Link for todays video. The bulls refuse to buckle as stocks moved higher for the third day running. Overall, large-cap tech stocks have been leading the market since the August 19th low. Chips were particularly strong on Monday with the Semiconductor HOLDRS...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ UNDERPERFORMS NASDAQ 100 IN RISK-OFF ENVIRONMENT -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS FORMS DESCENDING TRIANGLE -- INTEL FAILS AT RESISTANCE AS NVDA FORMS FALLING FLAG -- SILVER ETF TESTS TRIANGLE SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ UNDERPERFORMS NASDAQ 100 IN RISK-OFF ENVIRONMENT... Link for todays video. There are a number of ways to measure the appetite for risk in the stock market. In particular, chartists can use ratio charts to compare the performance of two different indices or ETFs. Chartists first need to choose...   READ MORE 

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RECENT MARKET TRENDS FOLLOW "NEW NORMAL" INTERMARKET SCRIPT VERY CLOSELY -- BOND YIELDS AND CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE LED STOCKS LOWER SINCE THE SPRING -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHED STOCKS SHARPLY LOWER THIS WEEK AS EURO PLUNGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NEW NORMAL IN INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS ... Back on April 5, I wrote a Market Message explaining the "new normal" in intermarket relationships. I did that to highlight two changes that had taken place over the past decade owing primarily to deflationary pressures not seen since the Great Depression of...   READ MORE 

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SPY STARTS WAVE 3 OF 5 DOWN -- GOLD HITS UPPER TRENDLINE OF RISING CHANNEL -- OIL AND STOCKS MAINTAIN POSITIVE CORRELATION -- XLE AND OIH CONSOLIDATE AFTER BREAKDOWNS -- DOLLAR CHALLENGES MAY HIGHS AS EURO CRUMBLES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY STARTS WAVE 3 OF 5 DOWN... Link for todays video. The zigzag higher since early August looks like an ABC correction that ended Wave-4 in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Chart 1 shows SPY with the 5% Zigzag indicator. This is not an indicator per se....   READ MORE 

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MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINING INDEX HITS NEW HIGH -- RECENT GOLD BREAKOUTS INCLUDE NEWMONT MINING AND ELDORADO GOLD -- BARRICK MAY BE NEXT -- CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SHOWED GOLD STOCKS REL-LINKING WITH GOLD DURING JULY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD MINERS INDEX HITS NEW HIGH... My Market Message last Friday morning showed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) on the verge of a bullish breakout to a new record high. Chart 1 shows that bullish breakout taking place this week (see circle). And this has happened while gold...   READ MORE 

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IWM AND SPY FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS -- FINANCE SECTOR AND REGIONAL BANKS LEAD MARKET REBOUND -- UTILITIES SECTOR REMAINS THE STRONGEST SECTOR OVERALL -- PERCENT OF STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY HITS BEAR MARKET TERRITORY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IWM AND SPY FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS ... Link for todays video. Price action remains quite choppy for stocks over the last five weeks. In particular, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has had five swings of at least 5% in the last five weeks. These swings, which were based on closing...   READ MORE 

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US DOLLAR SURGES AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES -- THAT'S USUALLY BAD FOR STOCKS AND COMMODITIES WHICH TREND IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE DOLLAR -- S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF SHORT-TERM SUPPORT LINE BUT REMAINS IN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

US DOLLAR INDEXES SURGES TO SIX-WEEK HIGH ... Besides today's selling in stocks, the most notable feature of the day's trading was the 1.74% surge in the U.S. Dollar Index. Chart 1 shows the Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) surging to the highest level since...   READ MORE 

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NEW LOW IN GERMAN DAX AND 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD POINT TO BAD MARKET DAY AHEAD -- US FUTURES EXPECTED TO OPEN SHARPLY LOWER -- NASDAQ FAILS TEST OF MAJOR RESISTANCE AT 2600 AND FORMS BEARISH "ISLAND REVERSAL" PATTERN -- SEPTEMBER IS USUALLY A WEAK MONTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DAX AND BOND YIELDS HIT NEW LOWS... European stocks fell sharply on Monday (while U.S. markets were closed) and are weak again today. Chart 1 shows the German DAX Composite, which is largest market in Europe, falling to another 52-week low. Given its strong correlation to the U....   READ MORE 

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DIA FORMS ISLAND REVERSAL WITHIN BEAR WEDGE -- IWM RETRACES LESS THAN DIA ON OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- 2010 LOWS MARK NEXT BIG SUPPORT ZONE -- OIL HITS RESISTANCE WITHIN A DOWNTREND -- EURO TRUST FORGES OUTSIDE REVERSAL WEEK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA FORMS ISLAND REVERSAL WITHIN BEARISH WEDGE... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows that classic technical analysis is alive and well for the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA). First, the ETF formed a Double Top and confirmed this pattern with a break below the intermittent low. A major bearish reversal...   READ MORE 

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WEAK PAYROLL NUMBERS PUSH GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER AND BONDS HIGHER -- IT NOW LOOKS LIKE SUMMER BOUNCE HAS ENDED -- GOLD MINERS INDEX COULD ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUT ON RISING GOLD AND SILVER PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EUROPEAN STOCKS FALL ... This morning's weak employment report is having a negative impact on global stock markets. European stocks are down 3%. Chart 1 shows the German DAX to be the weakest of the three after having achieved a feeble rally over the last month. Chart 2 shows...   READ MORE 

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TWO FUNDS OFFER WAYS TO PARTICIPATE IN RISING AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES -- IPATH GRAIN ETN OFFERS EXPOSURE TO CORN, SOYBEANS, AND WHEAT -- COFFEE AND SUGAR ETNS OFFER ENTRY INTO THOSE TWO RISING MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AGRICUTURAL MARKETS SHOW COMMODITY STRENGTH ... With all of the recent focus on the trend of commodities like gold and oil, it shouldn't go unnoticed that agricultural commodities turned up sharply during August. Perhaps the best known vehicle for trading that commodity sector is the Power Shares DB Agricultural...   READ MORE 

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SPX BREAKS BELOW 12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE -- AUGUST MARKS 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTHLY DECLINE -- EXCESSIVELY LOW SHORT-TERM YIELDS REFLECT UNCERTAINTY -- FALLING 10-YEAR YIELD IS BEARISH FOR STOCKS -- STEEPENING YIELD CURVE POINTS TO QE3

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPX BREAKS BELOW 12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE... Link for todays video. Long-term signals require long-term charts. Chart 1 shows monthly bars for the S&P 500 and the 12-period simple moving average. Over the last 17 years, there were five good crosses (signals) and at least...   READ MORE 

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BANKS AND HOMEBUILDERS ARE CLOSELY LINKED -- AND BOTH ARE WEIGHING ON THE REST OF THE MARKET -- HOMEBUILDERS BOUNCE BUT REMAIN IN MAJOR DOWNTRENDS -- NEWMONT MINING AND ROYAL GOLD ARE DAY'S GOLD LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BANKS AND HOUSING ARE LINKED ... Since banks and homebuilders have been the weakest parts of the market, I decided to take a closer look at how closely they're linked. The answer is "very". Chart 1 compares the PHLX Housing Index (bars) to the PHLX Banking Index...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MID-CAPS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR SURGES HIGHER -- RETAIL SPDR BREAKS MID AUGUST HIGH -- HOMEBUILDERS SPDR ADVANCES 5-DAYS STRAIGHT -- PERCENT OF SPX STOCKS ABOVE 50-DAY BREAKS 10%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID-CAPS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER... Link for todays video. Stocks extended last weeks rally with strong gains on Monday. The appetite for risk reappeared as small-caps and mid-caps led the way higher. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) advancing over 4% with a surge...   READ MORE 

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SPY FORMS TRIANGLE WITHIN DOWNTREND -- AUGUST 2010 LOWS MARK NEXT SUPPORT -- LARGE TECHS SPRING TO LIFE WITH QQQ LEADING -- NETWORKING AND SEMIS LEAD TECHS HIGHER -- PROVING A BEARISH REVERSAL OTHERWISE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY FORMS TRIANGLE WITHIN DOWNTREND... Link for todays video. After sharp declines in late July and early August, stocks have been moving sideways the last 3-4 weeks. This is pretty normal because stocks were quite oversold on August 8th, which is when the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)...   READ MORE 

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GOLD STOCKS FAIL TO REACH NEW HIGH -- THIS IS THE FOURTH TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE LAST DECADE AND USUALLY LEADS TO A GOLD PULLBACK -- GOLD SHARES UNDERPERFORM BULLION BUT OUTPERFORM STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD MINERS FAIL TEST OF HIGHS... On Tuesday I showed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) hitting a new four-month high which set up a test of its late 2010 and spring 2011 peaks. Chart 1 shows that test of prior resistance at 64 failed this week as...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS LEAD LATE SURGE, BUT BIG TECHS LAG -- STOCKS AND TREASURIES MAINTAIN NEGATIVE CORRELATION -- 7-10 YEAR BOND ETF CORRECTS AFTER FIFTH OF THE FIFTH -- CHANNEL TRENDLINE MARKS LONG-TERM SUPPORT FOR GOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LEAD LATE SURGE, BUT TECHS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. Small-caps led a ninth inning surge as the stock market rallied for a strong close. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) advancing around 1.5% on the day. The two day advance is...   READ MORE 

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MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF CLEARS SUMMER HIGH -- A LOT OF GOLD MINERS HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS -- TWO RECENT BREAKOUTS INCLUDE BARRICK AND NEWMONT -- SILVER BREAKOUT BOOSTS SILVER SHARES -- SILVER WHEATON IS GROUP LEADER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GDX HITS NEARS 2011 HIGH... Chart 1 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners Index (GDX) surging 4% yesterday through its July high on rising volume. That puts the GDX in position to challenge its previous highs near 64 formed late last year and this April. The rising relative strength line...   READ MORE 

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BOND MARKET PRICES IN AN ECONOMIC DIP -- YIELD CURVE FLATTENS, BUT REMAINS STEEP -- TLT LEADS HIGHER WITH MOVE TO 2008 HIGHS -- 30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HAS FURTHER ROOM TO FALL -- GOLD GOES PARABOLIC WITH STEEP MOVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND MARKET PRICES IN AN ECONOMIC DIP... Link for todays video. Double dip seems to be the economic topic djour. A CNN poll on August 10th noted that 25% of economists expect a double dip. This number was up from 15% just three months ago. Double dip refers to another...   READ MORE 

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DOWNSIDE MOVING AVERAGE CROSSINGS INCREASE MARKET RISK -- 10 - AND 40- WEEK EMA DOWNTURN HAS GOOD TRACK RECORD OF IDENTIFYING BEAR MARKETS -- SO DOES 13-34 WEEKLY COMBINATION WHICH ALSO TURNED DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10 WEEK AVERAGE FALLS BELOW 40 WEEK ... Another sign that the stock market has probably entered a bear market is the fact that the 10-week moving average (or 50-day) has fallen below the 40-week (or 200 days). [For long term signals like these, I prefer weekly to...   READ MORE 

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COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF MARKET TOPS -- RSI MOVES INTO BEAR MODE FOR THE S&P 500 -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY MOVES FROM LEADER TO LAGGARD -- STEEL AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD KEY INDUSTRY GROUPS LOWER -- EUROPEAN BANKS LEAD EUROPEAN INDICES LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF PRIOR MARKET TOPS... Link for todays video. Now is a good time to review the prior market reversals for clues on what to expect with this reversal. History does not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme (Mark Twain). The current bearish reversal in the S&...   READ MORE