BOND YIELDS JUMP ... This morning's March jobs numbers reported U.S. payrolls jumping by 218,000 which was higher than estimates. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to a two-year low of 8.8%. The result is a jump in stock futures which points to a higher... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ETF EXCEEDS FEBRUARY HIGH... Link for todays video. Small-caps continue to show relative strength as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) became the first major index ETF to break its February high. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) is next in line as it trades near its February high.... READ MORE
SOUTH KOREA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER... Last week's upside breakout in emerging markets is still holding. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares (black line) having risen to a new three-month high. The strongest component in that group is Korea iShares (red line) which is nearing its February... READ MORE
BOND ETF TESTS NECKLINE BREAKOUT... Link for todays video. The 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) surged above neckline resistance in mid March, but pulled back as stocks rallied over the last several days. The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout remains in play as broken resistance turns into the first support... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET HIGHER... Link for todays video. Small-caps led the surge on Monday and are at it again on Friday with another show of relative strength. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surging over 35% from late August to late February. This move was... READ MORE
GOLD CLOSES LOWER... My earlier message showed the Gold Trust (GLD) trading at a new record high. By day's end, however, both gold and silver experienced profit-taking. Chart 1 shows GLD closing lower on rising volume (silver did the same). Chart 2 shows the Market Vectors Gold... READ MORE
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH... Gold prices are hitting a new record today as shown in Chart 1. That shouldn't come as a surprise to readers of our increasingly bullish commentaries on precious metals over the last month. The line above Chart 1 shows silver prices having already risen... READ MORE
GOLD ETF SURGES TO RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With a surge above 140, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is challenging resistance from its March highs and the ETF is poised to hit a new all time high. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR advancing 3% the last six days. The... READ MORE
RISING INFLATION PUSHES POUND HIGHER... The latest British CPI report came in much higher than expected and increased pressure for a British rate boost. That pushed the British Pound to the highest level against the U.S. Dollar in more than a year (Chart 1). The Euro may be next.... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD BOUNCE... Link for todays video. Stocks moved broadly higher on Monday with small-caps leading the way. The major index ETFs were up 1.5% or more on the day. All nine sector SPDRs moved higher with energy and materials leading the charge. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
CURRENCY INTERVENTION PUSHES YEN SHARPLY LOWER... Link for todays video. For the first time since propping up the Euro in 2000, the G-7 intervened in the currency markets to push the Yen lower. So far it is working. The Yen surged because many Japanese companies are expected to repatriate... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX DROPS TO THREE-YEAR LOW... Traders continue to sell the U.S. Dollar. In yesterday's trading, the dollar fell to a 20-year low against the Japanese yen. Today, it's falling against everything else. More importantly, the greenback is breaking important support levels. Chart... READ MORE
FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks came under selling pressure again on Wednesday. All sectors were down with finance and technology leading the way. Chart 1 shows the Finance SPDR (XLF) breaking the support zone in the 16.25 area with a sharp decline the... READ MORE
JAPAN STOCKS LEAD WORLD LOWER... More shocks coming from Japan continue to unsettle global markets. A 10% plunge in Japanese shares has led other global stock markets lower around the world. Commodity prices are coming under pressure as well. Even precious metals are selling off. Treasury bonds are the day&... READ MORE
QQQQ STALLS NEAR JANUARY-FEBRUARY SUPPORT ... Link for todays video. After a three-prong decline from 59 to 56, chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) finding support with a bullish engulfing on Friday and indecision on Monday. Support in the 55.5-56 zone stems from the late... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR FORMS PENNANT CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 1% in February for the eighth straight monthly gain. Not a bad streak at all. On a monthly basis, the Retail SPDR (XRT) has risen 6 of the last 8 months (March excluded)... READ MORE
LONG-TERM CHARTS SHOWED OVERBOUGHT CONDITION ... Today's sharp selloff in stocks and commodities certainly suggests that the market has entered into a downside correction. The number of 50-day moving averages being broken by most global stocks indexes (including those in the U.S.) has given the first... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS LEAD THE DECLINE... Stock selling started in foreign markets and is spilling over to the U.S. For the first time in months, a number of 50-day averages are being broken which isn't a good sign. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares (EEM) falling back... READ MORE
TECHS, INDUSTRIALS AND FINANCE LAG FOR FOUR WEEKS... Link for todays video. The technology, industrials and finance sectors led the market higher to start the year, but these four turned into laggards the last four weeks. The first S&P Sector PerfChart shows the nine sector SPDRs and the... READ MORE
NEW INTEREST IN DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS... I wrote a Janury 13 message entitled: "DIVIDEND APPRECIATION ETFS OFFER CONSERVATIVE ENTRY FOR NERVOUS BOND HOLDERS". Two such ETFS that I showed were Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) and the DJ Dividend Index iShares (DVY). As I explained in that earlier piece,... READ MORE
LARGE-TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the major index ETFs lower on Monday. Chart 1 shows QQQQ meeting resistance from the 22-February gap over the last two weeks. The ETF gapped up... READ MORE
S&P 500 ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS - A BIG IMPULSE WAVE HIGHER ... Link for todays video. Even though there is no real change to the Elliott Wave counts put forth on January 21st, a few readers have been asking for an update so now is a good time for a... READ MORE
TRICHET SAYS ECB MAY RAISE RATES... The ECB Bank President announced today that a more vigilant stance against inflation is now warranted, and warned that the European central bank may raise rates as early as next month. That pushed the Euro sharply higher and the U.S. Dollar lower. Chart... READ MORE
IMPORTANT SUPPORT COMING INTO PLAY FOR QQQQ... Link for todays video. With a couple of sharp declines the last two weeks, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) established an important support zone to watch going forward. QQQQ represents the performance of large tech stocks. There are, or course, stocks other than... READ MORE
DON'T THE 1970'S QUALIFY AS RECENT HISTORY... After reading the comments by Mr. Bernanke before Congress today, I got to wondering about how much he actually knows about market and economic history. The head of the Fed is generally acknowledged to be an expert on the... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE AND UTILITIES LEAD LACKADAISICAL MARKET... Link for todays video. Sector movements on Monday showed relative strength in two defensive sectors: healthcare and utilities. The third defensive sector, consumer staples, did not lead on Monday, but hit a 52-week high just last week. These three sectors represent goods and... READ MORE
NEGATIVE CORRELATION HOLDS FOR DOLLAR/GOLD... Link for todays video. The long-term trend for the Gold SPDR (GLD) has been up since the breakout in early 2009. Chart 1 shows two modest corrections and one consolidation within this uptrend (pink lines). The uptrend continued when GLD broke falling wedge... READ MORE
ESTIMATING SHORT-TERM SUPPORT LEVELS FOR SPY... Link for todays video. Stocks continued lower for the second day, but bounced off their afternoon lows as short-term support levels came into play for the major index ETFs. Not everyones definition of short-term is the same. I would consider a... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKET ISHARES LOSE 3% ... Today's spike in oil prices has put global stocks on the defensive. Among the weakest are emerging markets, especially in Asia. Asian losses of more than than 3% have been seen in China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. Chart 1 shows HongKong iShares... READ MORE
GOLD AND OIL PRICES SPIKE HIGHER... As usually happens during a period of Mideast turmoil, gold and oil prices are spiking higher today. Chart 1 shows the Gold Trust Shares (GLD) trading at a two-month high. We've been reporting on the recent upturn in precious metal assets.... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE SECTORS REMAIN THE LAGGARDS... The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) has been lagging the broader market for some time now. While the S&P 500 is up some 30% since early July, XLV is up around 18%. Chartist can compare performance by using the S&P Sector PerfChart. Chart... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKETS ARE 2011 LAGGARDS... I'm not a believer in global decoupling. On the contrary, I believe that global stock markets are highly correlated and usually trend in the same direction. That's especially true of the relationship between emerging and developed markets. Chart 1 shows a... READ MORE
HOUSING RELATED ETFS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER... Link for todays video. A rebound in January housing starts put a bid into housing related ETFs on Wednesday. Chart 1 shows the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) within a clear uptrend since late August. The ETF broke above resistance in early January and then consolidated... READ MORE
GOLD MINERS BULLISH PERCENT INDEX TURNS UP ... I've devoted the last two Tuesday messages to signs of an upturn in precious metal assets which have been largely ignored in the recent commodity rally. Although stocks tied to coal, copper, oil, and steel have been soaring, precious metal stocks... READ MORE
ENERGY STOCKS SURGE AS WTI CRUDE FLATTENS... Link for todays video. Energy stocks were strong on Monday as the Energy SPDR (XLE) recorded another 52-week high and the Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) surged over 2%. This is all the more impressive considering that West Texas Intermediate ($WTIC) has been... READ MORE
DISSECTING THE REVERSALS IN 2000 AND 2007... Stocks remain in bull mode with fresh 52-week highs in the major indices. There is little doubt that the big trend is up. Many pundits, myself included, consider the stock market overbought and ripe for a correction or a pullback. However, buying... READ MORE
EXCHANGE VOLUME AINT WHAT IT USED TO BE... Link for todays video. Exchange and index volume levels are increasingly difficult to measure. In the good olds days, stocks traded on the exchanges and the exchanges reported volume. Reported volume levels were pretty close to reality and volume based indicators were... READ MORE
PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUE TO CLIMB ... My last two market messages from last week wrote about signs of an upturn in precious metal assets. Signs of an upturn are growing even stronger. Chart 1 show Gold Trust Shares (GLD) trading back over their 20-day average (green line) for the first... READ MORE
QQQQ HITS NEW HIGH WITH BREAKOUT... Stocks extended their gains on Monday with the major index ETFs hitting new 52-week highs. This includes the S&P 500 ETF, the Dow Industrials SPDR, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR, the Russell 2000 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF.... READ MORE
BONDS YIELDS SURGE AS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS... Even though non-farm payrolls rose by a paltry 36,000 in January, the unemployment rate fell to 9%. Anomalies and statistical errors aside, bonds took the news rather hard. Bonds fell and rates rose because a decline in the unemployment rate increases... READ MORE