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SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE WAY -- STOCKS AND OIL REMAIN JOINED AT THE HIP -- SWISS FRANC DIVORCES THE EURO -- RISING COMMODITIES COULD BE INFLATIONARY IN 2011 -- DIAMOND BREAKOUT FORECAST $100 OIL -- LONG-TERM RATES CHALLENGE 20-YEAR DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL AND MID-CAPS LEAD THE WAY IN 2010... Link for todays video. The last four months of 2010 witnessed some serious relative strength in small and mid-caps stocks. Chart 1 shows five key stock indices: the Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and S&...   READ MORE 

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A POETIC LOOK AT 2010

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WITH APOLOGIES TO POETS EVERYWHERE... Twas the night before Christmas And on the street they call Wall Traders and investors were having a ball, Stocks and commodities were ending on a high note Which for the global economy was a positive vote, Extended tax cuts started by Bush Also gave...   READ MORE 

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HISTORY AND THE 6-MONTH CYCLE -- 6-MONTH CYCLE STAYS BULLISH UNTIL APRIL -- PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE TURNS BULLISH IN 2011 -- JANUARY EFFECT FAVORS SMALL-CAPS -- MICRO-CAP PERFORMANCE SUGGESTS AN EARLIER EFFECT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HISTORY AND THE 6-MONTH CYCLE... Link for todays video. Stocks are currently in the bullish part of the six month cycle and about to enter the bullish portion of the presidential cycle. First, lets look at the six month cycle. History shows a clear bullish bias from November to April...   READ MORE 

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REVIEW OF RECENT STOCK BREAKOUTS AND A LOOK AT SOME THAT ARE CLOSE -- SUNTRUST BANKS TESTS OCTOBER HIGH -- JP MORGAN CHASE MAY BE NEXT BIG FINANCIAL BREAKOUT -- KB HOME IS LATEST HOMEBUILDER TO TURN UP -- AK STEEL BREAKS OUT IN STRONG STEEL GROUP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

REGIONAL BANK LEADERS... I've written several articles recently on three underperforming stock groups just starting to turn up. The three groups are financials, homebuilders, and steel. I've shown several stocks in each group that have achieved bullish breakouts, and some stocks that were close to doing...   READ MORE 

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DIA AND QQQQ CONSOLIDATE ABOVE BREAKOUTS -- STRONG COPPER BODES WELL FOR ECONOMY -- SURGING LUMBER BODES WELL FOR HOMEBUILDERS -- OIL FORMS A BULL FLAG -- ENERGY SECTOR LEADS MARKET -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA AND QQQQ CONSOLIDATE ABOVE THEIR BREAKOUTS... Link for todays video. Broken resistance turns into support. This is basic tenet of technical analysis. With the December surge, a number of indices and ETFs broke above their November highs. Once broken, these highs turn into the first supports level to watch....   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR HOLDS SUPPORT TO KEEP BREAKOUT ALIVE -- GOLD ETF RETRACES 62% WITH FALLING WEDGE -- BOND ETFS HIT POTENTIAL SUPPORT LEVELS -- OVER 50% OF SPX STOCKS REMAIN ABOVE THEIR 50-DAY SMAS -- NASDAQ 100 %ABOVE 50-DAY SMA FORMS DIVERGENCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR HOLDS SUPPORT TO KEEP BREAKOUT ALIVE... Link for todays video. The US Dollar Fund (UUP) took a hard hit at the beginning of December, but ultimately held support and formed a potentially bullish wedge the last few weeks. Before looking at daily price action, lets review the long-term trend...   READ MORE 

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UPSIDE BREAKOUTS SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN HOUSING SECTOR -- NVR, LENNAR, AND MERITAGE HOMES ARE STRONGEST HOMEBUILDERS -- HOME DEPOT, LOWES, AND SHERWIN WILLIAMS LEAD HOME IMPROVEMENT GROUP -- AK STEEL NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT --

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOUSING INDEXES TURN UP ... We've written several messages of late about the recent upturn in financial stocks that had been lagging behind the rest of the market since the spring. I expressed the view that a sustained upturn in the stock market was unlikely without some help from...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE SECTOR CHALLENGES NOVEMBER HIGH -- BREADTH WANES AS NET ADVANCES TURN MIXED -- NYSE AD LINE FAILS TO CONFIRM NEW HIGH -- VIX AND VXN TRADE IN LONG-TERM SUPPORT ZONES -- SPAIN LEADS EUROPEAN STOCKS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SPDR CHALLENGES NOVEMBER HIGH... Link for todays video. The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) has been lagging the market most of the year, but may be coming back to life with a surge over the last 2 1/2 weeks. Last week I wrote about the breakout in the iShares DJ...   READ MORE 

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FIVE AND TEN YEAR BOND YIELDS EXCEED 200-DAY AVERAGE -- PROSHARES SHORT BOND ETFS CONTINUE TO CLIMB -- SO DO STEEL STOCKS WHICH PRESENT GOOD VALUE IN COMMODITY GROUP -- FUND MONEY FLEEING BONDS MOVES TO STOCKS AND COMMODITIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EVEN THE FIVE-YEAR HAS TURNED UP ... A month ago (November 9) I showed the 30-Year T-Bond Yield (TYX) exceeding its 200-day moving average, and warned that carried bad news for the bond market. Chart 1 shows the TYX climbing to a new seven-month high. Earlier this month the 10-Year Treasury...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND NY COMPOSITE EXCEED NOVEMBER HIGHS -- FINANCE SECTOR LEADS MARKET IN DECEMBER -- SEMIS AND RETAILERS LEAD LATE SELL OFF -- DOLLAR FALLS SHARPLY AS MACD-HISTOGRAM TURNS NEGATIVE -- EURO SURGES OFF KEY RETRACEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND NY COMPOSITE EXCEED NOVEMBER HIGHS... Link for todays video. Slowly, but surely, the major indices are moving above their November highs. Small-caps started as the Russell 2000 broke its early November high on December 1st. The Nasdaq followed suit with a breakout last week. Today, the Dow Industrials...   READ MORE 

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STOCHRSI HOLDS IN BULL ZONE FOR DIA -- RSI HOLDS BULL ZONE FOR QQQQ -- RISING RATES WEIGH ON REITS AND UTILITIES -- XLU AND IYR UNDERPERFORM -- MEDICAL DEVICE ETF BREAKS NOVEMBER HIGH -- MEDTRONIC, BOSTON SCI AND STRYKER SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCHRSI HOLDS IN BULL ZONE FOR DIA... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) remains in a long-term uptrend and momentum is bullish overall. Chart 1 shows the ETF stalling around 110-115 the last few weeks, but there are no signs of weakness yet. I would mark first...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SPDR NEARS TEST OF NOVEMBER HIGH -- CITIGROUP AND WELLS FARGO HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- - HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES AND PNC LEAD REGIONAL BANK HOLDERS HIGHER -- INSURANCE BREAKOUTS INCLUDE METLIFE, LINCOLN NATIONAL, AND PRUDENTIAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP... Arthur Hill and myself have been writing over the last month about new signs of leadership in the financial sector. Over the last week, financials have been the market's strongest group (after being the weakest since the spring). Chart 1 shows the...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE ETF AND REGIONAL BANK SPDR EXTEND ON BREAKOUTS -- BOND VIGILANTES HIT US TREASURIES -- RISING INTEREST RATES ARE DOLLAR POSITIVE -- BUT DOLLAR GAINS ARE LIMITED -- US DOLLAR INDEX VERSUS US DOLLAR FUND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE ETF AND REGIONAL BANK SPDR EXTEND ON BREAKOUTS... Link for todays video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) both broke resistance last week and continued higher on Wednesday. These two were featured with daily charts in the December 1st Market Message as they gapped through...   READ MORE 

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ONE WAY TO HEDGE FALLING BOND PRICES IS WITH PROSHARES SHORT TREASURY ETFS -- MARKET VECTORS STEEL ETF LAGS OTHER COMMMODITY GROUPS -- US STEEL AND NUCOR ARE JUST BREAKING OUT -- EMA LINES REMAIN POSITIVE FOR SPX

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND ETFS CONTINUE TO DROP ... With the stock market continuing its climb, money is flowing out of the fixed income market. As I explained in last Thursday's message, Treasuries are among the worst performers (especially the long bond). Charts 1 and 2 show the recent deterioration in two...   READ MORE 

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BROKEN RESISTANCE LEVELS TURN FIRST SUPPORT -- HOME BUILDING ETFS CHALLENGE NOVEMBER HIGHS -- HOME DEPOT, LOWES, LENNAR AND KB HOME LEAD THE CHARGE -- EURO STOXX 50 INDEX RECOVERS FROM SUPPORT BREAK -- GERMAN DAX HOLDS STRONG AS FRENCH CAC WEAKENS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BROKEN RESISTANCE LEVELS TURN INTO FIRST SUPPORT... Link for todays video. With more than a few breakouts last week, many charts show resistance levels that now become the first support levels to watch. This is a basic tenet of technical analysis: broken resistance turns into support. Once this overhead supply...   READ MORE 

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BROKEN RESISTANCE MARKS FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY -- SMALL AND MID CAPS OUTPERFORMING LARGE-CAPS -- GOLD REMAINS STRONG DESPITE CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS -- EURO GETS OVERSOLD BOUNCE AS DOLLAR CORRECTS -- CUMULATIVE NET NEW HIGHS LINE REMAINS IN BULL MODE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BROKEN RESISTANCE MARKS FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY... Link for todays video. Point & Figure charts are straight-forward charts that focus exclusively on price action. Columns of Xs appear during an advance. Columns of Os appear during a decline. Nothing appears when prices are flat or move less than the box...   READ MORE 

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STRONG RETAIL CHARTS ANTICIPATE JUMP IN NOVEMBER SALES -- ABERCROMBIE BREAKS OUT -- FINANCIAL BOUNCE SUGGESTS DEBT CONCERNS ARE EASING -- SECTOR ROTATIONS FAVOR ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCK GROUPS AND SHOW GROWING OPTIMISM

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ABERCROMBIE & FITCH BREAKS OUT ... My Tuesday message wrote about the fact that retail stocks have been showing market leadership since midyear, and that several individual retailers were achieving bullish breakouts or were close to doing so. One that I highlighted was Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) which was challenging its...   READ MORE 

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DIA AND SPY BREAK CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE -- FINANCE/BANKING ETFS BREAK TRENDLINES SEMI EQUIPMENT STOCKS LIFT SMH TO NEW HIGH -- YIELDS RISE AS STOCKS SURGE AND EURO BOUNCES -- 7-10 YEAR BOND ETF BREAKS PENNANT SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA AND SPY BREAK CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE WITH GAPS... Link for todays video. Stocks surged with a broad rally that lifted all sectors. All major indices gained over 2% and the Russell 2000 showed leadership as it broke above its November high. Historically, December is the second strongest month for the...   READ MORE 

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RETAILERS CONTINUE TO ACT WELL IN FACE OF EUROPEAN WORRIES -- MACYS HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH -- ABERCROMBIE COMES CLOSE -- GAP EXCEEDS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- GOLD AND SILVER PRODUCERS RALLY AS WELL -- BARRICK NEARS 52-WEEK HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAILERS LEAD DISCRETIONARY SECTOR HIGHER... It looks like a tug of war is going on in the U.S. stock market between worries over European debt problems and signs of improvement in the U.S. economy. I normally take my cues on the economy from stock action. And one sign...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SECTOR LEADS AFTERNOON REBOUND -- DIA AND SPY HOLD SUPPORT WITH LATE SURGE -- OIL SURGES OFF SUPPORT AS GASOLINE HITS A NEW HIGH -- TRACKING EUROPEAN INDICES THROUGHOUT THE DAY -- SPANISH AND ITALIAN INDICES BREAK SUPPORT LEVELS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SECTOR LEADS AFTERNOON REBOUND... Link for todays video. Stocks were down sharply in early trading on Monday, but the finance sector showed relative strength early on and led the market during the afternoon rebound. In contrast to European equities, US banks seem to like the Irish bailout. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS MID-CAPS AND TECHS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER -- PORTUGUESE INDEX BREAKS IMPORTANT TRENDLINE -- SPANISH BOLSA LEADS EUROPE LOWER -- WEAKNESS IN GLOBAL EQUITIES LIFTS THE NIKKEI -- OIL FALLS BACK TO BROKEN RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS MID-CAPS AND TECHS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER... Link for todays video. Stocks surged on Wednesday with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) taking the lead. Just looking at the gaps over the last five trading days reveals a...   READ MORE 

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QQQQ AND IWM HOLD THEIR GAPS -- SEMIS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- ANALOG DEVICES, SANDISK AND TEXAS INSTRUMENTS LEAD SEMIS -- FINANCE SPDR REINSTATES PRIOR RESISTANCE LEVEL -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR FORMS HAMMER AT KEY RETRACEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQQ AND IWM SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH AS GAPS HOLD ... Link for todays video. The finance sector weighed on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), but the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) showed strength throughout the day and close with modest gains. Short-term, all three...   READ MORE 

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ALTERNATION SUGGESTS FLAT WAVE 4 FOR S&P 500 -- DEEPER CORRECTION TARGETS BROKEN RESISTANCE -- FINANCE HITS SUPPORT FROM RISING WEDGE TRENDLINE -- HOME-BUILDER AND HOME-CONSTRUCTION ETFS CONTINUE TO LAG -- MATERIALS SECTOR GOES THE WAY OF CHINESE STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ALTERNATION SUGGESTS FLAT WAVE 4 FOR S&P 500... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 has a five wave advance working since the July low. Wave 1 extends from the July low to the early August high. Wave 2 extends down to the late August low....   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY LINES -- BONDS, HOWEVER, REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE -- MUNIS HAVE BEEN HIT ESPECIALLY HARD AND SHOW THAT BONDS CAN LOSE MONEY -- FINANCIAL SPDR SUFFERS A MINOR SETBACK IN BOTTOMING FORMATION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MUNIS TUMBLE... We've been showing the upward trend in bond yields since the Fed's latest QE2 package was announced last week. We've also shown the drop in bond prices, especially Treasury bonds and notes. The bond category that's been hit the hardest...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG WITH FALLING FLAG -- STOCKS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE EURO -- EURO STOXX 50 TESTS IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL -- TREASURY YIELDS LEAD THE DOLLAR -- VIX CHALLENGES RESISTANCE WITH BIG SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL SPDR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG WITH FALLING FLAG... Link for todays video. The Retail SPDR (XRT) declined with the rest of the market over the prior six days, but bounced on Wednesday and shows relative strength overall. Chart 1 shows XRT breaking resistance with a gap above the October highs....   READ MORE 

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FALLING EURO PUSHES DOLLAR ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE -- DOLLAR INDEX BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT -- COMMODITIES FALL TOWARD OCTOBER LOWS -- CHINA LEADS EMERGING MARKET RETREAT -- US STOCK INDEXES HEAD TOWARD TEST OF 50-DAY LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING EURO SUPPORTS DOLLAR UPTURN... Stocks and commodities are in retreat today and a lot of the reason has to do with trends in currency markets -- especially the Euro and the dollar. Chart 1 shows the Euro slipping below its 50-day moving average for the first time in two...   READ MORE 

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BOND ETF TESTS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL -- INFLATION-INDEXED BOND ETF BREAKS SUPPORT -- NET NEW HIGHS INDICATORS REMAIN IN BULL MODE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND ETF TESTS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL... Link for todays video. The 7-10 year Bond ETF (IEF) is testing its October low with weakness on Monday. Chart 1 shows IEF hitting resistance around 100 twice since early October. A small double top is taking shape with support at 97.52, which...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SPDR TRIES TO BOUNCE OFF BREAKOUT POINT -- MARKET INDEXES TEST INITIAL SUPPORT AT 20-DAY AVERAGES -- BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTING DOLLAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS HOLDING SUPPORT... Financial stocks are leading a rally attempt on Monday. And it's coming at a good time for that sector. Chart 1 shows the Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) bouncing off chart support along its recent breakout point near 15.00. One of the rules of charting...   READ MORE 

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SPY FORMS BEARISH HARAMI AT RESISTANCE -- RUSSELL 2000 ETF TESTS GAP AND BREAKOUT -- GOLD AND COMMODITIES DECLINE SHARPLY AFTER EXTENDED RUNS -- DOLLAR BULLISH ETF CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR AND EURO ARE CAPABLE OF BIG SWINGS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY FORMS BEARISH HARAMI AT RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With a weak open on Monday and decline throughout the week, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) formed bearish harami patterns. These candlestick reversals form when the current candlestick body is inside the...   READ MORE 

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BROKEN RESISTANCE TURNS FIRST SUPPORT FOR XLB, XLK AND XLP -- MEDIUM-TERM BONDS TURN LOWER -- GERMAN STOCKS LEAD EUROPE -- IRISH AND GREEK INDICES STILL SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- SPANISH AND PORTUGUESE INDICES BACK OFF RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BROKEN RESISTANCE TURNS FIRST SUPPORT FOR XLB, XLK AND XLP... Link for todays video. One of the basic tenets of technical analysis is that broken resistance turns into support. The inverse is also true. A resistance level represents an area of supply. A break above resistance signals that demand has...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SECTOR FINALLY TURNS UP -- REGIONAL BANK AND BROKERAGE ISHARES BREAK OUT -- BANK LEADERS INCLUDE CITIGROUP, WELLS FARGO, AND US BANCORP -- GOLDMAN SACHS LEADS BROKERS HIGHER WHILE MORGAN STANLEY STRUGGLES WITH 200-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIAL SPDR BREAKS OUT... Financial stocks have finally turned up. Chart 1 shows last Thursday's upside breakout in the Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) and on rising volume. In fact, financials went from the market's weakest to the strongest group for the week. The jump in financial...   READ MORE 

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RISING CHANNEL OFFERS YEAREND GOLD TARGET -- SILVER RECORDS MULTI-YEAR HIGH -- GOLD MINERS ETF SURGES ABOVE OCTOBER HIGHS -- JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM -- THE CURRENCY AFFECT ON FOREIGN INDEX ETFS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING CHANNEL OFFERS YEAREND GOLD TARGET... Link for todays video. Gold continued its recent surge by moving above $1400 on Monday. Silver and platinum also moved higher. Gold hit an all time high on the Comex, while silver traded at a 30 year high. Precious metals remain hot as an...   READ MORE 

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OVERBOUGHT READINGS AND THE 2006-2007 ADVANCE -- CCI FOR S&P 500 SURGES TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE APRIL -- HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS TARGET FOR S&P 500 -- NIKKEI 225 GAPS UP TO FORM RIGHT SHOULDER -- POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN NIKKEI AND 10-YEAR T-YIELD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT READINGS AND THE 2006-2007 ADVANCE ... Link for todays video. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a popular momentum oscillator that fluctuates above/below the zero line. Unlike RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator, CCI is not bound on the upside of the downside. Typically, a reading above +100 is considered...   READ MORE 

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CHIPS GO FROM LAGGARDS TO LEADERS AS SMH CLEARS APRIL HIGH -- AMAT AND INTEL CLEAR 200-DAY LINES -- FINANCIAL SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- METLIFE HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH -- TIPS AND JUNK BONDS BENEFIT FROM QE2

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDERS CLEAR APRIL HIGH ... The ability of any stock index or group to clear its April high is a sure sign of strength. In case you haven't noticed, the Semiconductor Holders are doing just that today. I point that out because, up until a couple of months...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES SURGE ON FALLING DOLLAR -- LONG BOND AND DOLLAR ARE MAIN CASUALTIES OF QE2 -- FED ACTION IS FORCING INVESTORS TO SEEK HIGHER YIELDS WITH MORE RISK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ANOTHER POSITIVE DOW THEORY SIGNAL ... With the US elections behind us, and the Fed giving the markets what they wanted yesterday, global markets are reacting very swiftly and in a positive manner. The US Dollar Index has fallen to the lowest level in two years and giving a big boost...   READ MORE 

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SLOW GRIND HIGHER CONTINUES FOR STOCKS -- BONDS SELL OFF AFTER FED ANNOUNCEMENT -- FINANCE SPDR BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- JP MORGAN AND MORGAN STANLEY BOUNCE -- HOMEBUILDERS ETF CHALLENGES RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SLOW GRIND HIGHER CONTINUES FOR STOCKS... Link for todays video. The elections and the Fed policy statement have passed and the major indices have yet to be knocked out of their uptrends. Upside momentum has slowed, but we have yet to see any downside momentum, and certainly no support breaks....   READ MORE 

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FOUR-YEAR CYCLE BOTTOM WAS COMPLETED EARLY THIS YEAR AND FAVORS STOCKS -- BUT WATCH OUT FOR SHORT-TERM SETBACK AS STOCKS TEST APRIL HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE GOOD FOR STOCKS... One of the reasons that I started turning more positive on stocks over the summer was the fact that the four-year cycle was due to bottom this year. That and a positive turn in technical and intermarket trends. My September 2 message carried the...   READ MORE 

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ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS FOR THE S&P 500 -- SPY UPTREND SLOWS NEAR RESISTANCE -- OIL FORMS BULL FLAG ABOVE RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR INDEX FORMS A PENNANT CONSOLIDATION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS FOR THE S&P 500... Link for todays video. The Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 remains bullish overall. $SPX is currently in Wave 5 of a possible 5 wave advance that began in March 2009. The red numbers show this advance on...   READ MORE 

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UTILITIES AND FINANCE SECTORS LAG IN OCTOBER -- INDUSTRIALS SPDR HITS CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- VOLATILITY INDEX MOVES HIGHER EVEN AS STOCKS GAINS -- DETRENDING THE VIX TO IDENTIFY EXTREMES -- NON-CONFIRMATIONS IN NASDAQ AND NYSE BREADTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UTILITIES AND FINANCE LAG IN OCTOBER ... Link for todays video. The sector performance picture shows relative weakness in two interest-rate sensitive sectors. PerfChart 1 shows the relative performance for the nine sector SPDRs since September 30th. Keep in mind that this is not absolute performance. On an absolute basis, all...   READ MORE 

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USING BOLLINGER BANDS TO SPOT SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS -- %B CAN ALSO BE USED TO SPOT OVERBOUGHT AND OVERSOLD CONDITIONS -- CURRENT READINGS SHOW THE MARKET TO BE IN AN UPTREND BUT OVEREXTENDED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BAND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS... I recently applied Bollinger bands to one of the major stock indexes to show the current uptrend and, more importantly, to spot any downturn. I thought this would be a good time to explain this useful indicator more fully, and to show different ways that...   READ MORE