Members Only

MEMBERS ONLY

EUROPEAN INDICES LEAD GLOBAL RALLY -- XLF BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT AND CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- REGIONAL BANKS CONTINUE TO LAG -- OIL AND OIL SERVICE STOCKS BREAK RESISTANCE -- STOCKS AND BONDS MOVE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EUROPEAN INDICES LEAD GLOBAL RALLY... Link for todays video. Banks led European stocks higher on Monday with most country indices gaining over 2%. Leadership from banks, such as Frances biggest (BNP Paribas), shows increased confidence in the European banking system. This confidence also facilitated a sharp rally in the Euro....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP AS AGRICULTURALS LEAD COMMODITY RALLY -- STOCKS CONTINUE TO TEST RESISTANCE AT JUNE HIGH AND 200-DAY AVERAGES -- BULLISH PERCENT INDEXES TURN POSITIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND RALLY CONTINUES... Bond prices of all categories rallied again this week. One bond ETF I've been tracking closely is the 20+Year T-bond iShares (TLT) which is shown in Chart 1. I recently wrote that the TLT needed a close below its early July low and its...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

NASDAQ BREADTH INDICATORS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE -- NYSE AD LINE AND NET NEW HIGHS BREAK RESISTANCE -- S&P 500 STALLS ABOVE TRENDLINE BREAK -- NATURAL GAS ETF COMES TO LIFE -- NATURAL GAS INDEX FOLLOWS THE S&P 500 -- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CONSOLIDATES IN JULY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ BREADTH INDICATORS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With the July surge, key breadth indicators for the Nasdaq are challenging resistance from their June highs - as is the Nasdaq itself. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq as a 5-day EMA and 63-day EMA. Why these exponential moving averages? I...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE HIT RESISTANCE -- A VOLATILE 16 WEEK PERIOD -- FINANCE AND SEMIS HIT RESISTANCE -- OIL AND GASOLINE ETFS FORM TRIANGLES -- EURO ETF HITS KEY RETRACEMENT -- EURO AND STOCKS ARE POSITIVELY CORRELATED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE HIT RESISTANCE LEVELS... Link for todays video. Resistance from prior highs and key retracements is coming into play for the Nasdaq and NY Composite. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq hitting resistance around 2300 with a stall over the last two days. Resistance in this zone stems...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GOLD BREAKS CHART SUPPORT AS COMMODITIES WEAKEN -- STOCKS TEST JUNE HIGHS -- WATCHING THE LONG BOND FOR SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONG BOND TESTS SUPPORT... I wrote last week that the long Treasury bond probably needed to break initial chart support to signal a stock market bottom (since they trend in opposite directions). Although Treasuries have pulled back this week (as stocks have risen), no short-term sell signal has been given...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS CHALLENGE JUNE HIGHS -- SMALL-CAPS TAKE THE LEAD ON THE UPSIDE -- HOMEBUILDERS EXTEND SURGE AS NEW HOME SALES EXPAND -- NYSE AD LINE BREAKS ABOVE JUNE HIGH -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS SURGE TO 12 WEEK HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS CHALLENGE JUNE HIGHS... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials and Transports are leading the July charge as both challenge their June highs. Chart 1 shows the close-only line chart for the Dow Industrials. The senior Average broke its wedge trendline in mid July and traded...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DOW AND NASDAQ CROSS BACK OVER 200-DAY LINES -- THAT INCREASES ODDS FOR SUMMER RALLY -- EMERGING MARKETS ARE LEADING RALLY -- % NYSE STOCKS TRADING OVER 200-DAY AVERAGE TURNS UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKETS LEAD STOCK RALLY... A couple of months ago we were concerned that foreign stocks (and emerging markets in particular) were leading the U.S. stock market lower. That trend has reversed. Emerging markets are now leading us higher. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares having already exceeded its...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCK INDEXES BREAK THREE-MONTH DOWN TRENDLINE INCREASING ODDS FOR SUMMER BOUNCE -- THREE-MONTH HIGH IN COPPER IS ANOTHER SHORT-TERM POSITIVE FACTOR FOR STOCKS --

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES BREAK DOWN TRENDLINE... Stocks turned in a strong performance today. The three major stock indexes shown below closed back over their 50-day moving averages. The S&P 500 (Chart 2) and the Nasdaq Composite (Chart 3) did so for the first time since early May. Another positive...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

POSITIVE EARNINGS FORECASTS FROM AT&T, QUALCOMM, AND UPS BOOST STOCKS -- DOW TRANSPORTS AND NASDAQ 100 LEAD STOCK RALLY -- UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN COPPER BOOSTS FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THREE EARNINGS LEADERS... The three stocks shown below are rallying sharply on increased profit forecasts and are giving a big boost to stocks. Chart 1 shows AT&T jumping 3% to the highest level in three months. Chart 2 shows Qualcomm gapping up 8% to a three month high...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BERNANKE'S COMMENT SINKS STOCKS -- BONDS CONTINUE RALLY -- VIX HOLDS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MOVING AVERAGES PROVIDE RESISTANCE... [Arthur Hill is off today]. Mr. Bernanke's comment that the U.S. economic outlook is "unusually uncertain" contributed to afternoon selling of stocks and buying of bonds. The first three charts show that moving average lines are acting as resistance barriers over...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS RECOVER FROM EARLY DROP -- COMMODITIES REBOUND WITH STOCKS -- GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET INDEXES ACHIEVE UPSIDE REVERSAL... Stocks turned in a reasonably impressive performance today. After trading lower this morning, the major stock indexes closed higher. Although volume wasn't that heavy, it did pick up a bit from yesterday. That turned what started out as a potentially ugly day into...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

IBM AND CHIP STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX THREATENS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ 100 IS IN DANGER OF DEATH CROSS -- CORPORATE BONDS PAY HIGHER YIELDS BUT TREASURIES ARE SAFER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FORMER TECH LEADERS GAP DOWN TODAY... The technology sector is leading the market lower today. Two of the big reasons for that is sharply lower openings in two large tech stocks that had been former leaders. Chart 1 shows IBM gapping down 5% this morning and trading below its 50-day...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FINANCIALS FAIL AT RESISTANCE AND SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- UTILITIES SPDR CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- TIP AND GLD WEAKEN TOGETHER -- JAPAN FOLLOWS US, BUT CHINA GETS A BIG BOUNCE -- NATURAL GAS ETFS FORM FALLING CHANNELS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS FAIL AT RESISTANCE AND SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS ... Link for todays video. Relative weakness in the finance sector weighed heavily on the market last week. All nine sectors and the S&P 500 were down for the week, but the finance sector was the only sector to loose over...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER TO AFFIRM RESISTANCE ZONES -- BREADTH INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH OVERALL -- RISING EURO WEIGHS ON GOLD -- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT -- VOLATILITY INDICES TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER TO AFFIRM RESISTANCE ZONES... Link for todays video. After an eight week advance that pushed the S&P 500 up over 7%, stocks moved sharply lower in early trading on Friday. The day is still young, but the S&P 500 is down almost...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SOME FED GOVERNORS ARE WORRIED ABOUT DEFLATION -- NEGATIVE PPI DOESN'T HELP -- FALLING BOND YIELDS CAST DOUBT ON RECENT STOCK BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

JUNE MINUTES SHOW DEFLATION FEAR ... Wednesday's market bounce stalled on release of the Fed's June minutes that lowered the estimate for the U.S. economy for the balance of the year. Also reported was a number of Fed governors that expressed concern about the growing threat...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY AND DIA STALL NEAR RESISTANCE ZONES -- SEMICONDUCTORS HOLDRS SURGES TO RESISTANCE -- INTEL LEADS AS APPLE LAGS -- FINANCE SPDR AND REGIONAL BANK SPDR HIT RESISTANCE -- BASE METALS ETF BACKS OFF RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY AND DIA STALL NEAR RESISTANCE ZONES... Link for todays video. After a big surge the last six days, stocks took a breather with mixed action on Wednesday. The Nasdaq edged higher, but the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were lower on the day. Chart 1 shows the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

KEY RETRACEMENTS COME INTO PLAY FOR DIA AND SPY -- IWM STALLS WITH SHORTER RETRACEMENT -- SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- OIL HITS RESISTANCE IN 50-62% RETRACEMENT ZONE -- OIL AND STOCKS CONTINUE MOVING TOGETHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

KEY RETRACEMENTS COMING INTO PLAY FOR DIA AND SPY... Link for todays video. There are at least two trends present in the current market: a medium-term downtrend since late April and a short-term uptrend since last week. With the bigger trend down, this short-term uptrend is considered a corrective move...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DOW DOWNTREND IS CLEAR WITH SHORT EMA -- DOW THEORY MOVES INTO BEAR MODE -- KEY SECTORS REMAIN IN DOWNTRENDS -- BREADTH INDICATORS HAVE YET TO REVERSE COURSE -- DOLLAR FINDS SUPPORT NEAR RETRACEMENTS -- GOLD AND SILVER TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW DOWNTREND IS CLEAR WITH SHORT EMA... A short exponential moving average offers the best of both worlds: price smoothing and sensitivity. May and June were volatile months for the stock market. The Dow moved within a 1400 point range in May and an 800 point range in June. Over...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MORE HISTORY ON MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVERS -- WHY EMA LINES ARE MORE RELIABLE -- THE DIRECTION OF THE 200-DAY MA IS ALSO IMPORTANT -- WEEKLY 13-34 EMA COMBO IS ALSO AT CRITICAL POINT -- PREDEFINED STOCK SCANS REFLECT NEGATIVE TREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE 50-200 EMA COMBINATION WORKS BETTER... My Tuesday article on the significance of the "death cross" for the S&P 500 (when the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day) evoked a lot of messages and questions about the reliability of its signals. A number of readers correctly...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FINANCE SECTOR LEADS MARKET REBOUND -- AXP, FITB AND PNC LEAD BANKS -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS BOUNCES OFF RANGE SUPPORT -- ALTR, BRCM AND XLNX LEAD SEMIS -- XLU CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- AEP, CMS AND DUK LEAD UTILITIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE SECTOR LEADS MARKET REBOUND... Link for todays video. Stocks rebounded with a broad advance that lifted most boats. Advances led declines 6 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq. All major indices were up sharply. All sectors were higher with finance leading the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS BOUNCE WHILE GOLD AND THE DOLLAR SELLOFF -- DOLLAR SELLING BOOSTS FOREIGN ETFS -- AN IMPORTANT MOVING AVERAGE TEST IS TAKING PLACE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD AND DOLLAR DROP TOGETHER... I pointed out last Thursday the simultaneous drop in gold and the dollar, and the fact that both markets had fallen below their 50-day moving averages. I suggested that since both had risen together, it made sense that they should correct together. And they continue...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

VOLATILITY INDICES HOLD THEIR BREAKOUTS -- MATERIAL SPDRS AND BASE METALS ETF CONFIRM DOUBLE TOPS -- HOMEBUILDER ETFS TEST NOVEMBER LOWS -- XLK BREAKS NECKLINE SUPPORT -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

VOLATILITY INDICES FORM HIGHER LOWS AFTER BREAKOUTS... Link for todays video. The volatility indices held their breakouts and resumed their uptrends with the stock market slide over the last two weeks. Because the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) can be rather, well,...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GOLD TAKES A HIT AS DOLLAR DROPS -- GOLD STOCKS BACK OFF FROM OLD HIGHS -- SHORT-TERM TREND HAS WEAKENED FOR PRECIOUS METAL ASSETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD AND SILVER BREAK 50-DAY LINES... Gold and silver prices took a hit today for the first time in awhile. So did precious metal stocks. Chart 1 and 2 show the Gold ETF (GLD) and Silver (SLV) falling an average of 4% today on very heavy volume. Both commodity ETFs...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

I'VE BEEN USING THE 1930S AS MY DEFLATION MODEL FOR THE LAST DECADE -- KONDRATIEFF WINTER HAS BEEN ON TARGET -- GOLD STOCKS AND DEFLATION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD AND DEFLATION... I'm going to be writing about deflation in this message, since that's the only model that seems to have worked over the last decade. But first, I'd like to respond to one of our reader's question about the performance...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

S&P 500 DECLINES FURTHER WITH A DANGEROUS DIVERGENCE -- BREAKING DOWN THE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS IN THE S&P 500 -- AN ALTERNATIVE FALLING WEDGE FOR THE S&P 500 -- YEN AND SWISSY RISE IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 DECLINES FURTHER WITH A DANGEROUS DIVERGENCE ... Link for todays video. After a hair-raising decline on Tuesday, the S&P 500 continued lower on Wednesday. Buyers are simply nowhere to be found ahead of Fridays employment report and the three day weekend. Chart 1 shows the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS AND COMMODITIES CONTINUE TO FALL AS BONDS RALLY -- ONCE AGAIN, FOREIGN STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL DECLINE -- MORE 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING BROKEN -- REVIEW OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE TARGETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOWNGRADE OF CHINA GROWTH CONTRIBUTES TO SELLING ... As has been the case since the market top in May, foreign stocks are leading the global retreat in stocks. Today's main headline was a downgrade in Chinese economic growth. That's not too much of a surprise to those...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MOMENTUM TURNS BEARISH FOR MATERIALS SPDR -- A KEY TEST FOR THE STEEL ETF -- CONSUMER STAPLES LEAD MIXED MARKET -- TOBACCO STOCKS LEAD CONSUMER STAPLES HIGHER -- EURO ETF CONSOLIDATES AT RESISTANCE -- INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO FALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MOMENTUM TURNS BEARISH FOR THE MATERIALS SECTOR... Link for todays video. The Materials SPDR (XLB) showed some relative weakness on Monday as the sector with the second largest loss (behind energy). Chart 1 shows XLB with a rather volatile range since late May. XLB tested the February low with two...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY FORMS LOWER HIGH WITH WEEKLY REVERSAL -- NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE FAILS TO BREAK RESISTANCE -- NYSE AD LINE FORMS LOWER HIGH AS SMALL-CAPS WEAKEN -- NET NEW HIGHS TURN NEGATIVE -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND FINANCE WEIGH ON MARKET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY FORMS LOWER HIGH WITH WEEKLY OUTSIDE REVERSAL... Link for todays video. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy after the major index ETFs reversed near key retracements and formed lower highs. Stocks peaked in April with the major index ETFs declining sharply in April-May. After battling support from the February...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

LINK BETWEEN BONDS AND STOCKS CHANGED IN 1998 -- FALLING BOND YIELDS ARE NOW BAD FOR STOCKS -- FALLING RETAIL STOCKS ARE ANOTHER SIGN OF WEAKNESS -- SO ARE DROPS IN HOME DEPOT AND LOWES -- 13 AND 34 DAY EMA LINES ARE STILL NEGATIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WHY I WROTE SECOND INTERMARKET BOOK ... In my 1991 intermarket book, I wrote that bond and stock prices generally trended in the same direction. That meant that bond yields and stocks trended in opposite directions. In the three decades between the 1970s and 1990s, falling bond yields were good for...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DIA TESTS BROKEN RESISTANCE -- SPY FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT -- BOND ETF BREAKS RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR DIPS AS EURO BOUNCES -- GERMANY AND THE NETHERLANDS LEAD EUROPEAN STOCKS -- FRANCE HITS RESISTANCE AS ENGLAND LAGS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA TESTS BROKEN RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. The Fed left rates unchanged and indicated that it would continue to do so for an extended period of time. Nothing new here. The Fed also noted that the European debt crisis could have an adverse affect on US growth. Stocks finished...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS FAIL TEST OF 50-DAY LINES -- DOW AND S&P 500 FALL BELOW 200-DAY LINES -- TRANSPORTS, RETAILERS AND HOMEBUILDERS ARE ESPECIALLY WEAK -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES LEAD BOND PRICES HIGHER AS MOST COMMODITIES AND STOCKS DROP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND S&P 500 FALLS BELOW 200-DAY LINE... I wrote last Thursday that the next upside target for the market would be a test of 50-day averages. That test has taken place and, so far at least, appears to have failed. Yesterday's early enthusiasm about the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RECENT WEAKNESS IN HOMEBUILDING STOCKS IS A SIGN OF ECONOMIC WEAKNESS -- SO IS THE DROP IN THE PRICE OF LUMBER -- BOTH OF WHICH HELP EXPLAIN FALLING BOND YIELDS AND RISING BOND PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDING ETF BREAKS 200-DAY LINE... One of the more negative market signs of late has been the breakdown in homebuilding stocks -- both in absolute and relative terms. Chart 1 shows the DJ US Home Contruction iShares (ITB) well below its 200-day moving average and trading near the lowest level...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

TECHS LEAD MARKET LOWER WITH OUTSIDE REVERSALS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR BATTLES RESISTANCE -- RETAILERS WEIGH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR -- MACYS, TARGET AND BEST BUY MOVE SHARPLY LOWER -- GOLD MOVES BACK BELOW RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHS LEAD MARKET LOWER WITH BIG OUTSIDE REVERSALS... Link for todays video. Stocks started the day strong, but gave up early gains and moved into negative territory in the afternoon. Techs were especially weak with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 leading the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

HISTORICAL BULL AND BEAR ZONES FOR RSI -- S&P 500 RSI BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT ZONE -- A BREADTH THRUST FOR THE MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR -- FINANCE, RETAIL AND HOUSING ETFS LAG BROADER MARKET -- OIL HITS RETRACEMENT RESISTANCE ZONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HISTORICAL BULL AND BEAR ZONES FOR RSI... Link for todays video. As noted in prior commentaries, there are bull market zones and bear market zones for RSI. In general, RSI ranges from 40 to 80 in an uptrend and 20 to 60 in a downtrend. These are forty point ranges....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCK INDEXES STAY ABOVE 200-DAY LINES -- RAILS LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- BOND FUNDS HAVE STRONG DAY -- NEWMONT MINING HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH IN STRONG GOLD GROUP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FIXED INCOME ETFS GAIN GROUND... While some money is starting to creep back into stocks, investors are still showing enthusiasm for bonds. And I'm not talking just about Treasuries. More impressive gains were seen in other bond categories like corporate bonds and TIPS. Chart 1 shows the High...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

COMBINING SUMMER RALLY AND FOUR-YEAR CYCLE SUGGESTS ANY JULY BOUNCE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER AUTUMN -- LIGHT TRADING VOLUME ON RECENT RALLY SHOWS LACK OF BULLISH ENTHUSIASM -- DAILY EMA LINES ARE STILL NEGATIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MOST OF SUMMER RALLY TAKES PLACE DURING JULY... My Tuesday message suggested that the "summer rally" may have started. I warned, however, that I thought that short-term bounce into July could be followed by a selloff into the autumn months. First, a brief description of the summer rally....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD QQQQ HIGHER -- GOLD AND BONDS HOLD SUPPORT AS S&P 500 BREAKS RESISTANCE -- BOND ETF CONSOLIDATES ABOVE RESISTANCE -- TREASURY YIELDS TRACK COMMODITY ETF -- GOLD AND SILVER ETFS CONSOLIDATE NEAR RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD QQQQ HIGHER... Link for todays video. Trading was mixed much of Wednesday, but big techs and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) showed some leadership. Chart 1 shows QQQQ breaking above its early June high with a surge today. QQQQ is up four of the last five...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MARKET BOUNCE CONTINUES OFF FEBRUARY LOW -- SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK IMPROVES FOR RISK ASSETS -- SECTOR LEADERS INCLUDE AIRLINES AND CHIPS -- MARKET MAY BE STARTING SUMMER RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

VIX TURNS BACK DOWN... A couple of months ago, we warned that an upturn in the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index signalled a market correction that could take the major stock indexes back to their February lows. The good news is that the February lows have held and the market'...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY AND DIA GET COLD FEET AT RESISTANCE -- QQQQ FORMS TRIANGLE AS IWM FALLS SHORT -- FINANCE SECTOR LAGS BROADER MARKET -- UTILITY SPDR BREAKS RESISTANCE TO SHOW LEADERSHIP -- EURO GETS AN OVERSOLD BOUNCE WITHIN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY AND DIA GET COLD FEET AT RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Trading remains tricky as the major index ETFs get cold feet at or below important resistance levels. Stocks opened strong on Monday and continued higher in the morning, but selling pressure took over in the afternoon and the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

A POSSIBLE BROADENING FORMATION FOR THE NY COMPOSITE -- NASDAQ HOLDS ABOVE FEBRUARY LOWS WITH VOLATILE RANGE -- NY COMPOSITE UNDERPERFORMS NASDAQ -- NYSE AD VOLUME LINE IS WEAKER THAN THE AD LINE -- VIX AND VXN REACH MEDIUM-TERM EXTREMES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A POSSIBLE BROADENING FORMATION FOR THE NY COMPOSITE... Link for todays video. With a big bounce on Thursday, the market is making another concerted effort at holding the February lows. Chart 1 shows the NY Composite ($NYA) piercing its February lows, but moving back above by the end of the...   READ MORE