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WITH FOUR-YEAR CYCLE BOTTOM DUE IN SECOND HALF OF YEAR, IT MIGHT NOT BE TOO SOON TO START REALLOCATING SOME FUNDS OUT OF BONDS AND INTO STOCKS -- SO IS THE FACT THAT A HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM MAY BE FORMING IN THE S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IS A HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM FORMING IN STOCK?... Today's message is going to represent a shift in emphasis in favor of stocks. As you know, I've been writing since the spring about the huge move into bonds and out of stocks owing to fears of...   READ MORE 

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DIA AND QQQQ FILL THEIR GAPS WITH BREAKOUTS -- OFFENSIVE SECTORS GAP AND SURGE HIGHER -- EURO SURGES AS RISK-ON TRADE RESURFACES -- BONDS DECLINE AS MONEY FLEES SAFETY -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- EUROPEAN INDICES SURGE OVER 2%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIA AND QQQQ FILL THEIR GAPS WITH BREAKOUTS... Link for todays video. Stocks moved sharply higher on Wednesday with a broad advance that lifted most boats. All major indices were up sharply. All sectors were higher with the biggest gains coming from industrials, energy, finance and consumer discretionary. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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GOLD AND SILVER PRICES CONTINUE TO RALLY -- MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS INDEX MAY BE NEARING MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT -- BARRICK GOLD NEARS 52-WEEK HIGH-- GOLD SHARES ARE STARTING TO OUTPACE BULLION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD AND SILVER ETFS CONTINUE TO RISE... With stocks and most commodities on the defensive, money continues to move into precious metal assets. As a result, gold and silver prices are higher again today. Chart 1 shows the Gold Trust Shares (GLD) approaching a test of their summer highs. Chart...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- GAPS MARK RESISTANCE FOR QQQQ, SPY AND DIA -- FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO WEIGH OVERALL -- SEMIS BUILD ON SUPPORT BREAK -- RETAILERS DRAG DOWN CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks moved broadly lower on Monday with small-caps leading the way. The Dow fell around 141 points to test the 10,000 mark at the close (-1.4%). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down around 1.5%. The...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 ETF TESTS JULY LOW -- A LARGE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS FOR XLF -- FALLING CHANNEL TARGET FOR XLY -- INTERNET ETFS HOVERING JUST ABOVE IMPORTANT SUPPORT -- NASDAQ AD LINE BREAKS JULY LOW -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS DIP INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ETF TESTS JULY LOW ... Link for todays video. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is the first of the major index ETFs to test its July low. We have been talking about relative weakness in small-caps and this is just further evidence. The Dow SPDR (DIA) and S&...   READ MORE 

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RISING YEN HURTS JAPANESE MARKET -- RISING YEN MAY ALSO BE ADDING TO GLOBAL DEFLATION PRESSURE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING YEN PUSHES NIKKEI TO NEW LOW... A rising Japanese yen is normally bad for Japanese stocks. Chart 1 demonstrate their inverse relationship. It shows the the Nikkei 225 (orange line) falling below 9000 for the first time in more than year which makes it the weakest of the world&...   READ MORE 

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EXPANDING ON THE RISK-ON RISK-OFF TRADE -- WHAT ARE BONDS TELLING THE MARKET? -- OIL AND GASOLINE POINT TO WEAK DEMAND -- BASE METALS ETF BACKS OFF RETRACEMENT RESISTANCE -- SILVER BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EXPANDING ON THE RISK-ON RISK-OFF TRADE... Link for todays video. John Murphy and I have been writing a lot on the movement away from risk in favor of relative safety. I showed a PerfChart on August 6th showing the beginnings of a shift from the risk-on trade to risk-off trade....   READ MORE 

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NEGATIVE DOW THEORY TRENDS -- TRANSPORTS LEAD INDUSTRIALS LOWER AS BOTH NEAR DOW THEORY SELL SIGNAL -- UTILITIES OUTPERFORM INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN OF WEAKNESS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANSPORTS LEAD INDUSTRALS LOWER ... We've been writing about a lot of negative stock market signals of late which include bearish chart action, as well as recent rotations out of small caps and technology and into traditionally defensive groups (that pay dividends). This morning's message will focus...   READ MORE 

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A BEARISH ABC COUNT FOR THE S&P 500 -- DEFINING THE CURRENT DOWNSWING -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- HEALTHCARE, UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLES EDGE HIGHER -- FINANCE SECTOR CONTINUES TO LEAD LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A BEARISH ABC COUNT FOR THE S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. It is time to open Pandoras box with some Elliott Wave analysis of the S&P 500. To smooth the data and filter out the noise, I am using a 5-day exponential moving average for...   READ MORE 

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QQQQ REMAINS ON P&F SELL SIGNAL -- SPY FAILS AT P&F RESISTANCE -- IWM TESTS P&F SUPPORT -- PERIPHERAL EUROPEAN INDICES LEADING THE WAY LOWER -- CORE EUROPEAN INDICES FAIL AT RESISTANCE -- EURO WEIGHS ON MARKETS WITH SHARP DECLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQQ REMAINS ON P&F SELL SIGNAL... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ), S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) capture three important market segments. QQQQ captures technology, IWM reflects the performance of small-caps. SPY covers large-caps and the broader market). As...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 STILL ON SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNAL -- SMALL CAPS AND NASDAQ ARE LEADING MARKET LOWER -- SO IS THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX -- FALLING BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO PULL STOCKS AND MOST COMMODITIES (EXCEPT FOR GOLD) LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 STILL ON SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNAL ... The last chart I showed on Tuesday was an hourly bar chart of the S&P 500 with Fibonacci lines drawn over the price. The point of the chart was to show where overhead resistance was likely to appear. [That&...   READ MORE 

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ISLAND REVERSALS VIE FOR SHORT-TERM TREND -- HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERN REMAINS FOR LONG-TERM -- GOLD EXTENDS AUGUST SURGE AS SILVER HITS RESISTANCE -- GOLD:SILVER RATIO MOVING INVERSE TO STOCKS -- A TWIST ON FOSBACKS HIGH LOW LOGIC INDEX

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ISLAND REVERSALS VIE FOR SHORT-TERM TREND IN SPY... Link for todays video. Even though the month is barely half over, August is full of gaps. Chart 1 shows August starting with a big gap up as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) surged above 112 to start the month....   READ MORE 

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DIVIDEND ISHARES OFFER DEFENSIVE PROTECTION -- DVY LEADERS INCLUDE ENTERGY, CENTURYLINK, MCDONALDS, KIMBERLY CLARK, AND CLOROX -- GOLD LEADERS ARE ELDORADO AND IAMGOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SELECT DIVIDEND ISHARES SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH... My last message suggested that dividend paying stocks (especially telecom and utilities) offered defensive protection in a slowing economy with falling interest rates. The DJ Select Dividend Index Fund (DVY) offers a simple way to take advantage of that dividend benefit. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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SEMICONDUCTORS HOLDRS TESTS RANGE SUPPORT -- ADI, INTC AND TXN TESTS AS WELL -- BOND ADVANCE LOOKS PARABOLIC -- OIL AND GASOLINE ETFS FORM BEARISH WEDGE -- STRONG YEN HURTS JAPANESE EQUITIES -- LOST DECADE FOR US AND JAPAN -- TSAR OF THE EMERGING MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMICONDUCTORS HOLDRS TESTS RANGE SUPPORT... Link for todays video. The Semiconductors HOLDRS (SMH) defines the current state of unusual uncertainty in the stock market. Chart 1 shows SMH locked in a volatile trading range since early May. From low to high or high to low, the ETF has moved 10%...   READ MORE 

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GOLD AND EURO RESUME NEGATIVE CORRELATION -- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE -- TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS UNDERPERFORMING BROADER MARKET -- NDX PERCENT ABOVE 200-DAY SMA BREAKS 50% -- S&P 500 PERCENT ABOVE 50-DAY SMA BREAKS 50%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD AND EURO RESUME NEGATIVE CORRELATION... Link for todays video. For the most part, Gold and the Euro have been negatively correlated throughout 2010. Negative correlation means one rises when the other one falls and visa versa. Positive correlation means both rise or fall together. Chart 1 shows the Gold...   READ MORE 

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DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS LIKE UTILITIES AND TELECOM DO BETTER IN A DEFLATIONARY CLIMATE -- AT&T AND VERIZON LEAD TELECOM HOLDERS HIGHER -- GOLD NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- STOCKS ON SHORT-TERM SELL AS VIX TESTS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK DIVIDENDS ARE MORE ATTRACTIVE WHEN RATES TUMBLE ... I've read a lot of articles recently about which asset classes (or stock groups) do best in a deflationary environment. In past market messages (which warned of the deflationary threat), I've explained that two asset classes that usually...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RETHINK FED POLICY STATEMENT -- XLF AND XLY GAP DOWN FROM RESISTANCE -- HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS REAPPEARS IN QQQQ -- SHORT-TERM RATES HIT RECORD LOW -- HOW LOW FOR THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD? -- MOVING FROM RISK-ON TO RISK-OFF

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS RETHINK FED POLICY STATEMENT... Link for todays video. After bouncing yesterday afternoon, stocks opened sharply lower on Wednesday morning in what looks like a rethink of the Fed policy statement. The prospects of further quantitative easing and even lower interest rates may seem promising on the surface, but one...   READ MORE 

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FED'S DECISION TO BUY GOVERNMENT DEBT BOOSTS BONDS AND HELPS KEEP STOCK UPTREND INTACT -- GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS RALLY -- VIX STILL IN DOWNTREND -- ELI LILLY ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED TO REINVEST MORTGAGE PROCEEDS IN LONG TERM TREASURIES... Although bond yields have been falling (and bond prices rising) for more than four months, bond traders still liked today's Fed announcement that it planned to reinvest mortgage proceeds into long-term Treasuries to increase the money supply and give...   READ MORE 

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MAJOR INDEX ETFS HIT RESISTANCE -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ADVANCES INTO RESISTANCE ZONE -- HOMEBUILDERS AFFIRM SUPPORT WITH SURGE -- RETAILER SPDR LIMPS HIGHER -- FINANCE SECTOR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR BOUNCES OFF FLAG SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR INDEX ETFS RUN INTO RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With the advance over the last five weeks, most major index ETFs are challenging resistance from their June highs and a key retracement zone. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) for starters. Resistance around 46-47.5 stems from...   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BREAKS JULY LOWS -- EURO AND YEN SURGE AFTER JOBS REPORT -- GOLD ETF SURGES AS DOLLAR FALLS -- SMH FORMS BEARISH ENGULFING AT RESISTANCE -- NYSE SUMMATION INDEX BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BREAKS JULY LOWS... Link for todays video. Even though some of the economic reports were positive this week, the employment related reports on Thursday and Friday were decidedly negative. Initial jobless claims, a weekly statistic, rose on Thursday and Fridays non-farm payrolls showed 131,000 fewer jobs...   READ MORE 

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POINT & FIGURE CHARTS ADD PRECISION AND SIMPLICITY TO TREND SIGNALS -- A P&F LOOK AT STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES, AND CURRENCIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES IN P&F UPTRENDS... One of the things I like best about poing & figure charts is their simplicity. Their strongest feature is that buy and sell signals are easier to spot than on bar or candlestick charts. A p&f chart shows alternating columns of...   READ MORE 

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ECONOMIC DATA LIFTS STOCKS AND SINKS BONDS -- MATERIALS, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIALS LEAD THE CHARGE -- HEALTHCARE SPDR SURGES ABOVE RESISTANCE -- BMY, PFE AND STJ LEAD HEALTHCARE SECTOR -- GOOGLE AND AMAZON POWER INTERNET ETF HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ECONOMIC DATA LIFTS STOCKS AND SINKS BONDS... Link for todays video. Stocks started the day on a strong note after ADP Employer Services reported that companies added 42,000 jobs in July. The bulls were further bolstered with the ISM Services Index coming in well above 50 to show continued...   READ MORE 

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EUROPEAN INDICES LEAD GLOBAL RALLY -- XLF BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT AND CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- REGIONAL BANKS CONTINUE TO LAG -- OIL AND OIL SERVICE STOCKS BREAK RESISTANCE -- STOCKS AND BONDS MOVE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EUROPEAN INDICES LEAD GLOBAL RALLY... Link for todays video. Banks led European stocks higher on Monday with most country indices gaining over 2%. Leadership from banks, such as Frances biggest (BNP Paribas), shows increased confidence in the European banking system. This confidence also facilitated a sharp rally in the Euro....   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP AS AGRICULTURALS LEAD COMMODITY RALLY -- STOCKS CONTINUE TO TEST RESISTANCE AT JUNE HIGH AND 200-DAY AVERAGES -- BULLISH PERCENT INDEXES TURN POSITIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND RALLY CONTINUES... Bond prices of all categories rallied again this week. One bond ETF I've been tracking closely is the 20+Year T-bond iShares (TLT) which is shown in Chart 1. I recently wrote that the TLT needed a close below its early July low and its...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ BREADTH INDICATORS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE -- NYSE AD LINE AND NET NEW HIGHS BREAK RESISTANCE -- S&P 500 STALLS ABOVE TRENDLINE BREAK -- NATURAL GAS ETF COMES TO LIFE -- NATURAL GAS INDEX FOLLOWS THE S&P 500 -- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CONSOLIDATES IN JULY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ BREADTH INDICATORS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With the July surge, key breadth indicators for the Nasdaq are challenging resistance from their June highs - as is the Nasdaq itself. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq as a 5-day EMA and 63-day EMA. Why these exponential moving averages? I...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE HIT RESISTANCE -- A VOLATILE 16 WEEK PERIOD -- FINANCE AND SEMIS HIT RESISTANCE -- OIL AND GASOLINE ETFS FORM TRIANGLES -- EURO ETF HITS KEY RETRACEMENT -- EURO AND STOCKS ARE POSITIVELY CORRELATED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE HIT RESISTANCE LEVELS... Link for todays video. Resistance from prior highs and key retracements is coming into play for the Nasdaq and NY Composite. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq hitting resistance around 2300 with a stall over the last two days. Resistance in this zone stems...   READ MORE 

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GOLD BREAKS CHART SUPPORT AS COMMODITIES WEAKEN -- STOCKS TEST JUNE HIGHS -- WATCHING THE LONG BOND FOR SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONG BOND TESTS SUPPORT... I wrote last week that the long Treasury bond probably needed to break initial chart support to signal a stock market bottom (since they trend in opposite directions). Although Treasuries have pulled back this week (as stocks have risen), no short-term sell signal has been given...   READ MORE 

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DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS CHALLENGE JUNE HIGHS -- SMALL-CAPS TAKE THE LEAD ON THE UPSIDE -- HOMEBUILDERS EXTEND SURGE AS NEW HOME SALES EXPAND -- NYSE AD LINE BREAKS ABOVE JUNE HIGH -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS SURGE TO 12 WEEK HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS CHALLENGE JUNE HIGHS... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials and Transports are leading the July charge as both challenge their June highs. Chart 1 shows the close-only line chart for the Dow Industrials. The senior Average broke its wedge trendline in mid July and traded...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND NASDAQ CROSS BACK OVER 200-DAY LINES -- THAT INCREASES ODDS FOR SUMMER RALLY -- EMERGING MARKETS ARE LEADING RALLY -- % NYSE STOCKS TRADING OVER 200-DAY AVERAGE TURNS UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKETS LEAD STOCK RALLY... A couple of months ago we were concerned that foreign stocks (and emerging markets in particular) were leading the U.S. stock market lower. That trend has reversed. Emerging markets are now leading us higher. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares having already exceeded its...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES BREAK THREE-MONTH DOWN TRENDLINE INCREASING ODDS FOR SUMMER BOUNCE -- THREE-MONTH HIGH IN COPPER IS ANOTHER SHORT-TERM POSITIVE FACTOR FOR STOCKS --

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES BREAK DOWN TRENDLINE... Stocks turned in a strong performance today. The three major stock indexes shown below closed back over their 50-day moving averages. The S&P 500 (Chart 2) and the Nasdaq Composite (Chart 3) did so for the first time since early May. Another positive...   READ MORE 

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POSITIVE EARNINGS FORECASTS FROM AT&T, QUALCOMM, AND UPS BOOST STOCKS -- DOW TRANSPORTS AND NASDAQ 100 LEAD STOCK RALLY -- UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN COPPER BOOSTS FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THREE EARNINGS LEADERS... The three stocks shown below are rallying sharply on increased profit forecasts and are giving a big boost to stocks. Chart 1 shows AT&T jumping 3% to the highest level in three months. Chart 2 shows Qualcomm gapping up 8% to a three month high...   READ MORE 

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BERNANKE'S COMMENT SINKS STOCKS -- BONDS CONTINUE RALLY -- VIX HOLDS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MOVING AVERAGES PROVIDE RESISTANCE... [Arthur Hill is off today]. Mr. Bernanke's comment that the U.S. economic outlook is "unusually uncertain" contributed to afternoon selling of stocks and buying of bonds. The first three charts show that moving average lines are acting as resistance barriers over...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RECOVER FROM EARLY DROP -- COMMODITIES REBOUND WITH STOCKS -- GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET INDEXES ACHIEVE UPSIDE REVERSAL... Stocks turned in a reasonably impressive performance today. After trading lower this morning, the major stock indexes closed higher. Although volume wasn't that heavy, it did pick up a bit from yesterday. That turned what started out as a potentially ugly day into...   READ MORE 

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IBM AND CHIP STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX THREATENS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ 100 IS IN DANGER OF DEATH CROSS -- CORPORATE BONDS PAY HIGHER YIELDS BUT TREASURIES ARE SAFER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FORMER TECH LEADERS GAP DOWN TODAY... The technology sector is leading the market lower today. Two of the big reasons for that is sharply lower openings in two large tech stocks that had been former leaders. Chart 1 shows IBM gapping down 5% this morning and trading below its 50-day...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS FAIL AT RESISTANCE AND SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- UTILITIES SPDR CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- TIP AND GLD WEAKEN TOGETHER -- JAPAN FOLLOWS US, BUT CHINA GETS A BIG BOUNCE -- NATURAL GAS ETFS FORM FALLING CHANNELS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS FAIL AT RESISTANCE AND SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS ... Link for todays video. Relative weakness in the finance sector weighed heavily on the market last week. All nine sectors and the S&P 500 were down for the week, but the finance sector was the only sector to loose over...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER TO AFFIRM RESISTANCE ZONES -- BREADTH INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH OVERALL -- RISING EURO WEIGHS ON GOLD -- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT -- VOLATILITY INDICES TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER TO AFFIRM RESISTANCE ZONES... Link for todays video. After an eight week advance that pushed the S&P 500 up over 7%, stocks moved sharply lower in early trading on Friday. The day is still young, but the S&P 500 is down almost...   READ MORE 

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SOME FED GOVERNORS ARE WORRIED ABOUT DEFLATION -- NEGATIVE PPI DOESN'T HELP -- FALLING BOND YIELDS CAST DOUBT ON RECENT STOCK BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

JUNE MINUTES SHOW DEFLATION FEAR ... Wednesday's market bounce stalled on release of the Fed's June minutes that lowered the estimate for the U.S. economy for the balance of the year. Also reported was a number of Fed governors that expressed concern about the growing threat...   READ MORE 

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SPY AND DIA STALL NEAR RESISTANCE ZONES -- SEMICONDUCTORS HOLDRS SURGES TO RESISTANCE -- INTEL LEADS AS APPLE LAGS -- FINANCE SPDR AND REGIONAL BANK SPDR HIT RESISTANCE -- BASE METALS ETF BACKS OFF RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY AND DIA STALL NEAR RESISTANCE ZONES... Link for todays video. After a big surge the last six days, stocks took a breather with mixed action on Wednesday. The Nasdaq edged higher, but the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were lower on the day. Chart 1 shows the...   READ MORE 

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KEY RETRACEMENTS COME INTO PLAY FOR DIA AND SPY -- IWM STALLS WITH SHORTER RETRACEMENT -- SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- OIL HITS RESISTANCE IN 50-62% RETRACEMENT ZONE -- OIL AND STOCKS CONTINUE MOVING TOGETHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

KEY RETRACEMENTS COMING INTO PLAY FOR DIA AND SPY... Link for todays video. There are at least two trends present in the current market: a medium-term downtrend since late April and a short-term uptrend since last week. With the bigger trend down, this short-term uptrend is considered a corrective move...   READ MORE 

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DOW DOWNTREND IS CLEAR WITH SHORT EMA -- DOW THEORY MOVES INTO BEAR MODE -- KEY SECTORS REMAIN IN DOWNTRENDS -- BREADTH INDICATORS HAVE YET TO REVERSE COURSE -- DOLLAR FINDS SUPPORT NEAR RETRACEMENTS -- GOLD AND SILVER TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW DOWNTREND IS CLEAR WITH SHORT EMA... A short exponential moving average offers the best of both worlds: price smoothing and sensitivity. May and June were volatile months for the stock market. The Dow moved within a 1400 point range in May and an 800 point range in June. Over...   READ MORE